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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I can see the cross-gen period for the PlayStation 5, the Xbox Series X|S, and the DLSS model* last much longer than 2 years, especially with strong demand for ABF substrates not expected to subside until around 2026-2027.

Agreed. I can see ps4 and xbone lasting a bit longer than the gen before it, due to the chip shortage as well.

I mean I literally said in the post you replied to that it won't be a "pro". We agree there.

I'm saying that the old/traditional idea of a "successor" is, I believe, dead.

It's not an order of magnitude more powerful though. Not even close. We're talking maybe 2-3x better GPU and 5-8x better CPU. An order of magnitude would be a flat 10x increase for everything which we're absolutely not getting.

Reminder that the new 3DS had a 6x stronger CPU. Wii had at best 2x over GC but was called next gen. Because next gen is a marketing phrase and nothing else.
To be fair, If we count DLSS, i think we'll get closer to a 8-10x GPU performance boost vs original switch. CPU of course will be a generation apart. Bandwidth will be bigger than Wii u --> Switch, which is probably the worst/lowest increase between consoles (only 2x). Hopefully 102 GB/s with Orion cache.
 
Again, I will note that FLOPs have to be converted for a proper comparision.

Tegra X1 FLOPs =/= Pascal FLOPs =/= Ampere FLOPs =/= Orin FLOPs.

While the Switch docked is at 500GFLOPs of "TX1" (Between Maxwell and Pascal due to features of Pascal being affixed onto Maxwell in the TX1), 500GFLOPs of Orin would likely blow the OG Switch docked performance out of the water.
393?
When people are insisting that 2023 or beyond is more likely, is it based on rumours at all - or is it just catastrophic thinking?

The (H2) 2022 line-up makes a whole lot more sense to be paired with new hardware. They're ticking off major releases that won't have follow-ups for years. After Breath of the Wild 2, it's safe to say the next 3D Zelda will be 2026-2027. Splatoon and Xenoblade would be similar. So are we really proposing that Nintendo is going to release all these titles, have the bulk of core gamers finish playing them, and only then release bleeding edge new hardware that's meant to last for another 5 years? Were I Nintendo I'd just give Zelda more time - in fact I wouldn't have advertised 2022 in the first place.

Also - people are being far too stubborn about the meaning of "Pro" here. We're just hooking into a familiar term coined from literally one generation of gaming consoles, and Nintendo's approach won't necessarily be like-for-like with what happened there. When I say I think it's going to be a "Pro", I mean to say that it'll share more in common with the positioning of a PS4 Pro than a PS5. Unlike a PS5, Nintendo may spend the entire life of the "Dane" console advertising it hand in hand with the OLED/OG models.

Pro is a half step to a new generation that has just enhanced performance of the base consoles. TX1 to Orion/Ampere is a generational leap in power and tech though, not a half step.

As someone mentioned earlier, Nintendo is in a weird position. The Switch is still selling so well and we aren't used to seeing this in the 5h year of a Nintendo console's cycle for a long time. But the switch won't have this momentum forever.
 
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Calling Dane “Switch 2” serves no real purpose to the new Nintendo imo. Just call it Switch 4K or something and market it as another premium model of Switch but aimed at the TV user (using DLSS to hit much higher resolutions) rather than the portable user. They’ll sell 10-20million on that premise alone.

If they call it Switch 2 you immediately piss off a large portion of your user base and create confusion amongst consumers about which games work on the old system and which are new ‘next generation’ only Switch games further confused with the first year or two being cross gen games anyway. These customers have also only had their Switch for a few years or less (they’ve sold what 30-40% of the entire Switch total since Covid?).

Nintendo also said in 2021 that Switch was only halfway through it’s life cycle so unless Dane isn’t coming for another 3 years it won’t be Switch 2. I think it’s fairly obvious that Dane will be revealed either just before E3 2022 or late Summer 2022 and targeted to release in November 2022 with BotW 2.

Strange post, why would next gen ("Switch 2") made confusion? I mean we have PS5 and no one was confused.
Switch 2 screams next generation of Switch hardware, and actually positing it like revision and with other different name scheme would be make more confusion.
 
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With current chip shortages globally, even for current Switch versions, at this point its unlikely that Nintendo will release new hardware next year,
so we most likely talking about 2023. launch, and at that point most sense is to release full next gen hardware (when I say "next gen" don talk only about hardware, but about features, marketing and other "next gen" things) instead of revision.
 
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It just makes zero sense for Nintendo to blow huge amounts of money on a 2-year console revision. That has never been their M.O. and I don't think it makes any business sense either. Dane Switch will certainly be backwards compatible so it's not like games like BotW 2, Splatoon 3, etc. will stop selling. They'll still be evergreen titles years from now. Add new games like Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 4, 3rd party ports etc., I don't think Dane Switch will be starved for titles.
Who is talking about a 2-year revision?
 
I the the Xbox One X is skewing what it means to be a "pro" vs a "successor". The One X was a very powerful system for a Pro revision. The One S was a 900p system by all means. Going to 2160p was damn near a 6x increase in pixel count. And a lot of those games were native! On paper, that's a next gen jump, and as we see with the Series S, it is "next gen".

The Series S has a lot of new features and effects that the One X just can't do. Let's see the One X run Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition. Sure, the Series S can go as low as 540p, but ray traced global illumination and 60fps? Come on son. And then there's The Matrix Awakens. 'Nough said.

Point is, multipliers don't tell the whole story. My prediction of a "GTX 1040" or 1050 level of raster performance would be a smaller multiplier than the One S to One X, but feature set will mean a lot. And, of course, the cpu and memory, just like the One X vs Series S.
 
@ika theorized about Dane Switch being one of multiple revisions before a "real" next-gen system. I don't think Nintendo is planning Dane Switch as any kind of stop-gap, the system that's been leaked requires way too much investment.
Why does Dane being a revision before a new non-Switch console launching in like 2027-2028 somehow make it a stop-gap? It would still be their primary product for 4-5 years, which is what most of their console gens usually do.

FWIW I kinda agree with ika there, I think "Switch" will be its own generation just like Game Boy or DS or Wii, and what comes next will be a new concept. Dane will simply be an iterative upgrade within the Switch family, not treated like Nintendo's "next console".

I have no idea what their actual next console will be but they can always keep Dane (or a successor to Dane) on the market as a safeguard against this new concept not taking off. If they use a common software environment such that these products share like 99% of the library the risk involved in launching something different from the Switch will be minimal.
 
I the the Xbox One X is skewing what it means to be a "pro" vs a "successor". The One X was a very powerful system for a Pro revision. The One S was a 900p system by all means. Going to 2160p was damn near a 6x increase in pixel count. And a lot of those games were native! On paper, that's a next gen jump, and as we see with the Series S, it is "next gen".

The Series S has a lot of new features and effects that the One X just can't do. Let's see the One X run Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition. Sure, the Series S can go as low as 540p, but ray traced global illumination and 60fps? Come on son. And then there's The Matrix Awakens. 'Nough said.

Point is, multipliers don't tell the whole story. My prediction of a "GTX 1040" or 1050 level of raster performance would be a smaller multiplier than the One S to One X, but feature set will mean a lot. And, of course, the cpu and memory, just like the One X vs Series S.

I think the main thing that holds One X back was the jaguars. If Zen had made it, it would have been fully next gen imo.

Still even with Jaguars, its more of a generational leap than GC to Wii.
 
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I know this isn’t a super new theory and not really much insight from my part but I see the Switch 2 or whatever we call it now as a generation light upgrade. More along the line DS to 3DS. Same look and feel of the hardware.

In my mind Nintendo is trying to replicate the DS with the Switch:
  • DS = Switch
  • DS Lite = Switch Lite
  • DSi = OLED Model
  • 3DS = Switch 2

Only thing different now would be that they would not leave the original switch that fast like with the DS to 3DS transition and having it alongside Switch 2 for a long time. I think they already tried how that will work when they were still doing 3DS games until 2019 alongside Switch.

Maybe their plan isn‘t to have a clear cut transition and having their userbase over two generations for a long time. I could see them releasing Switch 2 in late 2022/2023 and doing smaller Switch games until like 2027.

This would also fit to their remark that the Switch will be there for a long time and that next gen is 20XX which always sounded to me 2030+
 
I just hope that it comes out next year so that my favorite third party game (Xcom2) will run at at 720p/60fps undocked with no 30-60s long “thinking time” whenever I’m on a Lost level. That is with 20-30 enemies on screen and the game needs to calculate what will happen next
 
It is frankly unnerving that we haven't had a single piece of info from a big outlet since September.
The entire topic has become too toxic for people to feel safe and comfortable reporting on it I think. Outside of some brave souls like Nate.
 
I just hope that it comes out next year so that my favorite third party game (Xcom2) will run at at 720p/60fps undocked with no 30-60s long “thinking time” whenever I’m on a Lost level. That is with 20-30 enemies on screen and the game needs to calculate what will happen next
Xcom runs with an unlocked framerate on the switch?
It is frankly unnerving that we haven't had a single piece of info from a big outlet since September.
I was thinking the same thing. Although less unnerving and more just I’m starved for info because I’m so excited for this thing, so I really hope the floodgates open next year.
 
if we're still thinking that Dane is gonna be in the range of XBO and PS4, we're talking 1050 to 1050 Ti levels of performance here. DLSS can get you higher fidelity, but you rendering at a lower resolution, which helps everything. a docked only switch game that renders at 480p can probably get you a lot of PS4's graphical effects
That is precisely what is still up in the air. The relation between power consumption, base rez and output rez is still a mystery. But going by Nate's comment that is been linked to in the OP, the result is not satisfactory (yet).
The entire topic has become too toxic for people to feel safe and comfortable reporting on it I think. Outside of some brave souls like Nate.
Do you have a concrete post to point at? If yes, I would recommend you report the author.
 
Do you have a concrete post to point at? If yes, I would recommend you report the author.
Oh no I'm not talking about this thread, I'm talking about the entire subject overall. So many leaks and reports have been wrong or partially incorrect over time and people are generally just done hearing about it.

The entire subject about Switch pro or 2 or Dane generates a lot of hate and toxicity on forums and places like Twitter that most reporters are probably staying away from it unless they're like 1000% certain about timing or some other detail.
 
Oh no I'm not talking about this thread, I'm talking about the entire subject overall. So many leaks and reports have been wrong or partially incorrect over time and people are generally just done hearing about it.

The entire subject about Switch pro or 2 or Dane generates a lot of hate and toxicity on forums and places like Twitter that most reporters are probably staying away from it unless they're like 1000% certain about timing or some other detail.
I'm stupid. Of course you were talking in general.

@NateDrake : if I may allow myself a question. How much agressivity have you encountered since you have started talking about this topic? Is the agressivity going credscendo? I would totally understand if you would prefer to stay silent.
 
I'm stupid. Of course you were talking in general.

@NateDrake : if I may allow myself a question. How much agressivity have you encountered since you have started talking about this topic? Is the agressivity going credscendo? I would totally understand if you would prefer to stay silent.
A mixture. Has it been worth discussing the topic? Not at all. Sharing info? Not one damn bit. When I see Nikkie and Bloomberg get attacked for their reporting, it becomes clear that the enthusiast community are nothing more than petulant children that have no understanding of the industry or its inner workings, nor are they mature enough to handle a discussion on that matter.

Info gathering isn't some simple matter of 'Yes' or 'No' type questions & answers. There are layers to it. The fact people think a dozen+ dev/pubs lied to Bloomberg is astonishing. Devkits for a new Switch with 4K and DLSS support exist. Would these same studio know whether it is a revision or a successor? Not necessarily. They have a codename for the hardware they are working on, they know it is a Switch device. How Nintendo brands it means nothing to them.

Plans change. Delays happen. Reporting on info relevant in the moment cannot cover all potential pivots made due to internal delays, production delays, etc...

There is always the possibility Nintendo cancels the product. If that happens it doesn't make prior reporting wrong. It's just a change in planning.
 
A mixture. Has it been worth discussing the topic? Not at all. Sharing info? Not one damn bit. When I see Nikkie and Bloomberg get attacked for their reporting, it becomes clear that the enthusiast community are nothing more than petulant children that have no understanding of the industry or its inner workings, nor are they mature enough to handle a discussion on that matter.

Info gathering isn't some simple matter of 'Yes' or 'No' type questions & answers. There are layers to it. The fact people think a dozen+ dev/pubs lied to Bloomberg is astonishing. Devkits for a new Switch with 4K and DLSS support exist. Would these same studio know whether it is a revision or a successor? Not necessarily. They have a codename for the hardware they are working on, they know it is a Switch device. How Nintendo brands it means nothing to them.

Plans change. Delays happen. Reporting on info relevant in the moment cannot cover all potential pivots made due to internal delays, production delays, etc...

There is always the possibility Nintendo cancels the product. If that happens it doesn't make prior reporting wrong. It's just a change in planning.
I am sorry that you are confirming what we were thinking. I can only thank you for having had the generosity to quench our thirst for information, even in the face of mockery and bad behaviour from some of us. I have nothing else to say except thank you.

But while we are talking about the immaturity of some posters, I have a confession to make: I was once a fanboy with no other goal than being loud and defensive about the brands I regarded highly. I was surrounded with equally agressive and stubborn people, whose behaviour I replicated while trying to be louder because I though that's how I would "win". I simply didn't know how to discourse and being constructive in a discussion. I saw the ones disagreeing with me as enemies, and they saw me the same way.

Little I knew that the posters and I actually had an education issue. It is perfectly possible to make your voice hear without trying to scare or boss the others. Actually, it is more effective to be benevolent and to give space to the other people to express themselves. The quality of the discussion increases and people tend to calm themselves. You end up in environment in which people cooperate and are not afraid to speak their mind.

It is hard to ask younger people to go through those steps. A lot of people have a history of being involed in games of power in real life in which they don't necessarily have the upper hand. It can lead to frustration and anxiety which is then made plain visible when this game of power takes place online and about subjects they hold dear.

I don't know how to solve this issue. Which makes me admire the people with the courage to expose themselves out there even more.
 
A mixture. Has it been worth discussing the topic? Not at all. Sharing info? Not one damn bit. When I see Nikkie and Bloomberg get attacked for their reporting, it becomes clear that the enthusiast community are nothing more than petulant children that have no understanding of the industry or its inner workings, nor are they mature enough to handle a discussion on that matter.

Info gathering isn't some simple matter of 'Yes' or 'No' type questions & answers. There are layers to it. The fact people think a dozen+ dev/pubs lied to Bloomberg is astonishing. Devkits for a new Switch with 4K and DLSS support exist. Would these same studio know whether it is a revision or a successor? Not necessarily. They have a codename for the hardware they are working on, they know it is a Switch device. How Nintendo brands it means nothing to them.

Plans change. Delays happen. Reporting on info relevant in the moment cannot cover all potential pivots made due to internal delays, production delays, etc...

There is always the possibility Nintendo cancels the product. If that happens it doesn't make prior reporting wrong. It's just a change in planning.
I was very surprised people were seeing proof in that everything was made up when Nintendo came with their denying answer. I mean clearly Bloomberg and others don‘t have the full picture, but that people trust more in a Corporation interested to share as little information as possible anyway than in journalists that are without any visible agenda (at least when we aren’t believing in some conspiracy) is really something.
 
A mixture. Has it been worth discussing the topic? Not at all. Sharing info? Not one damn bit. When I see Nikkie and Bloomberg get attacked for their reporting, it becomes clear that the enthusiast community are nothing more than petulant children that have no understanding of the industry or its inner workings, nor are they mature enough to handle a discussion on that matter.

Info gathering isn't some simple matter of 'Yes' or 'No' type questions & answers. There are layers to it. The fact people think a dozen+ dev/pubs lied to Bloomberg is astonishing. Devkits for a new Switch with 4K and DLSS support exist. Would these same studio know whether it is a revision or a successor? Not necessarily. They have a codename for the hardware they are working on, they know it is a Switch device. How Nintendo brands it means nothing to them.

Plans change. Delays happen. Reporting on info relevant in the moment cannot cover all potential pivots made due to internal delays, production delays, etc...

There is always the possibility Nintendo cancels the product. If that happens it doesn't make prior reporting wrong. It's just a change in planning.
I do wonder why Bloomberg and Nikkei gets attacked for reporting on a new Switch. I understand there's a subset of users who just aren't read to upgrade yet , I also understand some people are salty with a reporter over at Bloomberg over their reporting on Sony, but there is definately a sense that some people really do not want to see a Switch successor come out, and I can only guess its down to console warring and not wanting attention shifted from their next-gen consoles or more importantly, not wanting Nintendo to release something that can get the same games they want.
 
G’damn clout seeking Mochizuki - he’s the reason we’re in this mess. If only he’d stop baiting everybody on his fanboy blog.

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/s - Bloomberg is not some fanboy blog :X
 
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I do wonder why Bloomberg and Nikkei gets attacked for reporting on a new Switch. I understand there's a subset of users who just aren't read to upgrade yet , I also understand some people are salty with a reporter over at Bloomberg over their reporting on Sony, but there is definately a sense that some people really do not want to see a Switch successor come out, and I can only guess its down to console warring and not wanting attention shifted from their next-gen consoles or more importantly, not wanting Nintendo to release something that can get the same games they want.
Along the line: It isn’t what I want from Nintendo and isn‘t gonna work according to my own truth so it has to be objectively wrong.
 
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A mixture. Has it been worth discussing the topic? Not at all. Sharing info? Not one damn bit. When I see Nikkie and Bloomberg get attacked for their reporting, it becomes clear that the enthusiast community are nothing more than petulant children that have no understanding of the industry or its inner workings, nor are they mature enough to handle a discussion on that matter.

Info gathering isn't some simple matter of 'Yes' or 'No' type questions & answers. There are layers to it. The fact people think a dozen+ dev/pubs lied to Bloomberg is astonishing. Devkits for a new Switch with 4K and DLSS support exist. Would these same studio know whether it is a revision or a successor? Not necessarily. They have a codename for the hardware they are working on, they know it is a Switch device. How Nintendo brands it means nothing to them.

Plans change. Delays happen. Reporting on info relevant in the moment cannot cover all potential pivots made due to internal delays, production delays, etc...

There is always the possibility Nintendo cancels the product. If that happens it doesn't make prior reporting wrong. It's just a change in planning.
I'm very interested in the industry and its inner workings (even though I'll be first to admit I don't understand it per se), so I appreciate the peeks behind the curtain, the info and discussion points.. It's just too damn bad that a percentage of very loud keyboard warriors make it such a colossal headache for you (and the others). And I've seen some of the twitters, I know the word "headache" is a bit of an understatement. I've had to deal in my personal life with people who just decide things are the way they want them to be and if I present opposing evidence or personal experience then I'm a liar. It's exhausting, and I can't imagine what it's like catching that online. Either way, figured I'd take the chance to voice my appreciation for what you do in the face of those twerps.
 
I mean I don’t remember people acting this way about the next gen PS or Xbox consoles. People were frothing at the mouth, yet it feels like some people here don’t want it to come out next year specifically. Like it’s not even that they don’t want a next gen console, it’s just that they seem vehemently against the idea of it coming in 2022.

There are no rumors denying that dev kits are out there. There are no rumors saying that Nintendo is planning a device for late 2023 or beyond. Why can’t you just say you don’t believe in the rumors instead of calling the idea of a more powerful switch in 2022 “ridiculous” or “irrational thinking”?

Why does it feel like we have to constantly defend not only our logic, but the few creditable reporters out bringing us this data? I’m sorry that you’re “exhausted” from Switch Pro rumors, but can’t you just, you know, not read it?
 
I was very surprised people were seeing proof in that everything was made up when Nintendo came with their denying answer. I mean clearly Bloomberg and others don‘t have the full picture, but that people trust more in a Corporation interested to share as little information as possible anyway than in journalists that are without any visible agenda (at least when we aren’t believing in some conspiracy) is really something.
Nintendo put out the statements they did because the info was hitting too close to home. They had to debunk it for their shareholders. Then Bloomberg countered with dozens of sources and the only counter in return was a single company (the one named) to claim they had no kits, which they had do to since they couldn't publicly confirm possession.

It's all standard operating procedure but fans and those with no industry knowledge took Nintendo's word for gospel. Of the two parties (journalists/outlets & Nintendo) only one has a narrative to build and maintain. The outlets are reporting what they hear and know. Nintendo is the one that needs to control the narrative & the statements were their means of doing so. If anything, the statement further confirmed the Bloomberg info as having base.

Myself, Bloomberg, and Nikkei aren't making up info for fun nor are we visiting the same well for info. It's almost like there is truth to the information... things simply got delayed/changed due to shortages, pandemics, and standard industry uncertainties.
 
  • WUST
  • WUST
For those not in the know, WUST stands for "WiiU speculation/specs topic" and refers to an infamous thread on Neogaf in which even the lowest expected specs for the console were not met when said specs were finally revealed.

It was a major smack in everyone's face and left many posters bitter. A mini-WUST happened again after Digital Foundry revealed the Switch's CPU and GPU top speeds (and thus its rated GFLOPS).
 
For those not in the know, WUST stands for "WiiU speculation/specs topic" and refers to an infamous thread on Neogaf in which even the lowest expected specs for the console were not met when said specs were finally revealed.
I mean, who could have predicted Nintendo would fuse 3 Wii cpus together and set the TDP to 33W? hell, even hitting 75W would have made for a much more interesting machine
 
I mean, who could have predicted Nintendo would fuse 3 Wii cpus together and set the TDP to 33W? hell, even hitting 75W would have made for a much more interesting machine
Especially after all the money they splashed in R&D expenses the years before. I remember being devastated after the official announcement.
 
People who understand that Nintendo is a TOY COMPANY not a tech company.
that really doesn't mean anything

Especially after all the money they splashed in R&D expenses the years before. I remember having been devastated after the official announcement.
PowerPC was a dead arch. IBM would never had done this themselves if Nintendo didn't open the wallet. and the protocol for the tablet, which, IMO was worth it and should have been used somehow in the Switch
 
I mean, who could have predicted Nintendo would fuse 3 Wii cpus together and set the TDP to 33W? hell, even hitting 75W would have made for a much more interesting machine
What was different back then? Were Bloomberg and other reputable leakers not reporting on the Wii U? Or did they just have incorrect information?
 
What was different back then? Were Bloomberg and other reputable leakers not reporting on the Wii U? Or did they just have incorrect information?
straight up lack of info. the most info I remember was insiders preparing us to be disappointed. that's why we got those low end AMD APU ideas. but even those would have been a better and more cost efficient choice
 
straight up lack of info. the most info I remember was insiders preparing us to be disappointed
That’s crazy to think that very few people were trying to get inside info on the successor to the Wii. Was it the same for XB1 and PS4 or was the rumor mill just focused on the HD twins?
 
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I mean I don’t remember people acting this way about the next gen PS or Xbox consoles. People were frothing at the mouth, yet it feels like some people here don’t want it to come out next year specifically. Like it’s not even that they don’t want a next gen console, it’s just that they seem vehemently against the idea of it coming in 2022.

There are no rumors denying that dev kits are out there. There are no rumors saying that Nintendo is planning a device for late 2023 or beyond. Why can’t you just say you don’t believe in the rumors instead of calling the idea of a more powerful switch in 2022 “ridiculous” or “irrational thinking”?

Why does it feel like we have to constantly defend not only our logic, but the few creditable reporters out bringing us this data? I’m sorry that you’re “exhausted” from Switch Pro rumors, but can’t you just, you know, not read it?
I honestly think a big part of it is fanboys who just want Nintendo to have the best selling console of all time or something.

They're so adamant that there can't be anything coming soon because it would ensure Switch doesn't get there (on its own anyway).
 
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People who understand that Nintendo is a TOY COMPANY not a tech company.
Solid bait. I like it.
that really doesn't mean anything


PowerPC was a dead arch. IBM would never had done this themselves if Nintendo didn't open the wallet. and the protocol for the tablet, which, IMO was worth it and should have been used somehow in the Switch
Yeah, Nintendo really put retrocompatibility too high on its priority list.
What was different back then? Were Bloomberg and other reputable leakers not reporting on the Wii U? Or did they just have incorrect information?
No, posters were making realistic predictions based on the tech available during those years.
 
What was different back then? Were Bloomberg and other reputable leakers not reporting on the Wii U? Or did they just have incorrect information?

I believe most where focused on the GPU uArch which was based off the Radeon 4600 series according to rumors. People thought that it would be more of a generation leap than what we got with the Wii U
 
In contrast, the PS4 received the equivalent of a GTX 560Ti which was something only the most optimistic posters imagined it would have.

This made the comparison with the WiiU that much more painful.

Brrr... 2013 was Nintendo's nadir.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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