StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Skittzo]

I don't think a lot of people think it's going to be a pro at this point. Not here or anyone tracking the rumors at least.

I still see plenty of insistence on a Pro model, in spite of the information we've got so far, on Install Base... and Era... and Reddit... and I'm sure there's still probably folks here who think it, too, but they've gone quiet about it.

There are literally zero rumors suggesting it's a new gen. While every single rumor that does give a name to this thing had been referring to it as a revision.

You can argue timing and power all you like for pointing to a successor and I wouldn't disagree at all, but specifically the rumors from the likes of Nate, Mochizuki and Grubb refer to it more like a 4k revision.


Edit: actually scratch that, Nikkei in 2019 called it a next gen Switch. But that's the sole example I can think of.

 

[Dakhil]

Will games even make RT mandatory? Cause I can see games that have RT on/off modes not using the RT on Dane for easier porting

Last year, the CTO of 4A Games, Oles Shishkovstov, said that 4A Games is "...fully into ray tracing, dropping old-school codepath/techniques completely". So I think ray tracing is mandatory for at least future games from 4A Games.

 

[Deleted member 1324]

Calling Dane “Switch 2” serves no real purpose to the new Nintendo imo. Just call it Switch 4K or something and market it as another premium model of Switch but aimed at the TV user (using DLSS to hit much higher resolutions) rather than the portable user. They’ll sell 10-20million on that premise alone.

If they call it Switch 2 you immediately piss off a large portion of your user base and create confusion amongst consumers about which games work on the old system and which are new ‘next generation’ only Switch games further confused with the first year or two being cross gen games anyway. These customers have also only had their Switch for a few years or less (they’ve sold what 30-40% of the entire Switch total since Covid?).

Nintendo also said in 2021 that Switch was only halfway through it’s life cycle so unless Dane isn’t coming for another 3 years it won’t be Switch 2. I think it’s fairly obvious that Dane will be revealed either just before E3 2022 or late Summer 2022 and targeted to release in November 2022 with BotW 2.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Thanks for the answer! That’s what my question was about. I don’t have any other system so I don’t know how RT works, but if these next gen games do have this toggle, that means that the pre baked lightning has been made and thus that version could theoretically be ported to Dane.

I’ll frame it differently: not having RT cores would be like Wii not being capable of 720p? Will it really be a problem or can it be worked around just fine?

comparisons to the Wii won't apply here. for the Wii, you had to build a second game, barely sharing assets and even code. on the Switch, it can get practically any game the XBO/PS4 get as long as you're not cpu or memory bound. Dane will be the same, though RT might throw some complications in if you can't bring over all the effects. you can bake the lighting, but if a game is designed around dynamic lights, that's gonna be an issue. there are work arounds, like screen space solutions and what not. reflections and shadows are easier to overcome at least.

 

[Hermii]

Last year, the CTO of 4A Games, Oles Shishkovstov, said that 4A Games is "...fully into ray tracing, dropping old-school codepath/techniques completely". So I think ray tracing is mandatory for at least future games from 4A Games.

Wasn’t there a rumor a while back, they could only get rt working in docked mode?

If the feature is not universal, it won’t help Dane switch get any more ports.

 

[Mr Swine]

Calling Dane “Switch 2” serves no real purpose to the new Nintendo imo. Just call it Switch 4K or something and market it as another premium model of Switch but aimed at the TV user (using DLSS to hit much higher resolutions) rather than the portable user. They’ll sell 10-20million on that premise alone.

If they call it Switch 2 you immediately piss off a large portion of your user base and create confusion amongst consumers about which games work on the old system and which are new ‘next generation’ only Switch games further confused with the first year or two being cross gen games anyway. These customers have also only had their Switch for a few years or less (they’ve sold what 30-40% of the entire Switch total since Covid?).

Nintendo also said in 2021 that Switch was only halfway through it’s life cycle so unless Dane isn’t coming for another 3 years it won’t be Switch 2. I think it’s fairly obvious that Dane will be revealed either just before E3 2022 or late Summer 2022 and targeted to release in November 2022 with BotW 2.

Why world announcing a switch 2 cause confusion and anger if it has BC? Calling it Switch 4K or Switch Pro will just muddy the waters and give Nintendo a temporary boost in sales.

Calling it Switch 2 will indicate that it’s a successor and Nintendo will support Switch at least 2 years more despite the successor being out

 

[Dakhil]

Wasn’t there a rumor a while back, they could only get rt working in docked mode?

If the feature is not universal, it won’t help Dane switch get any more ports.

My impression of this rumour from NateDrake is that ray tracing did technically work in handheld mode, but battery life was more negatively impacted than anticipated, which is why the power consumption was being tweaked.

But I think NateDrake was probably only talking about preliminary devkits only going by this rumour. So there's the possibility the rumour could be outdated to an extent. And I don't know how that would translate to final hardware.

 

[ILikeFeet]

if there were a substantial number of dev kits out with DLSS and RT while the chip hasn't been finalized, then that would mean that these kits are probably based on something like a mobile turing gpu and "battery life" isn't an actual battery measure, but a Wattage measure. if this was, in fact, based on Turing, then wattage shouldn't scare them too much since it's still a 12nm gpu. the only thing that might be giving them pause is Nvidia saying "take the wattage and decrease by x amount" and Nintendo aren't seeing that

 

[ShadowFox08]

There are literally zero rumors suggesting it's a new gen. While every single rumor that does give a name to this thing had been referring to it as a revision.

You can argue timing and power all you like for pointing to a successor and I wouldn't disagree at all, but specifically the rumors from the likes of Nate, Mochizuki and Grubb refer to it more like a 4k revision.


Edit: actually scratch that, Nikkei in 2019 called it a next gen Switch. But that's the sole example I can think of.

Yes at the time, nothing suggested it would be a switch 2 release, but who really expected a successor only 4 years after switch released?

And the the leakers were wrong. They thought we'd get the pro model with DLSS by the end of the year, and were threw off by the OLED model instead.

In 20 20 hindsight, an entirely new architecture with next gen GPU+ CPU (notably the latter) with DLSS as a pro model just didn't make sense. Far too ambitious with different architecture to make it work as a pro model.

Plans change all the time. A lot of leakers either have wrong or outdated information.

Calling Dane “Switch 2” serves no real purpose to the new Nintendo imo. Just call it Switch 4K or something and market it as another premium model of Switch but aimed at the TV user (using DLSS to hit much higher resolutions) rather than the portable user. They’ll sell 10-20million on that premise alone.

If they call it Switch 2 you immediately piss off a large portion of your user base and create confusion amongst consumers about which games work on the old system and which are new ‘next generation’ only Switch games further confused with the first year or two being cross gen games anyway. These customers have also only had their Switch for a few years or less (they’ve sold what 30-40% of the entire Switch total since Covid?).

Nintendo also said in 2021 that Switch was only halfway through it’s life cycle so unless Dane isn’t coming for another 3 years it won’t be Switch 2. I think it’s fairly obvious that Dane will be revealed either just before E3 2022 or late Summer 2022 and targeted to release in November 2022 with BotW 2.

Umm what? Just because Nintendo says it's halfway through it's cycle, doesn't mean we have to wait until 2025 for a successor. It can mean 1st party support will cease in 2025. The Switch 2 can come out before then and they be supported at the same time for a number of years like last gen ps4/xbone and PS4/x series.

Anyhow, when Switch ends support is more dependent on market interest and sales. It can certainly last a long like the handheld consoles.

 

[Skittzo]

The leakers were wrong. They thought we'd get it by the end of the year and were threw off by the OLED model instead.

And no way on hell is an entirely new architecture with next gen GPU+ CPU (notably the latter) with DLSS going to be a pro model.

Plans change all the time. A lot of leakers either have wrong or outdated information.

2/3 of the leakers I mentioned said it was a 2022 product up until Bloomberg proclaimed it was coming this year. Those don't go out the window because one of them got the year wrong due to confusion between developer sources and supply line sources.


I've been advocating this for years now and I still believe it will be the case- Nintendo will not release a traditional "next gen" successor until 2027-2028 if not later. Switch is going to be their primary platform for the foreseeable future and will have multiple points of entry including the Lite, the regular or OLED Switch, and the new 4k Switch. This is not going to be like a traditional generation because generations are and have been fairly meaningless for a while now. Only really Sony holds onto them as a concept and even that just turned out to be lip service.

Dane is going to be a new iteration of Switch, but not a typical "Switch 2". Also not a "Switch Pro". Nintendo has been doing these kinds of iterative upgrades far longer than anyone else and there's zero reason to believe they will stop doing it.

 

[Branduil]

I mean it's a next-gen system regardless of how they end up advertising it. It's a next-gen CPU, it's a next-gen GPU, it's next-gen rendering hardware and software. We also know it will have exclusive games.

This is really just an argument over the name. I agree they probably won't call it "Switch 2," but something like "Super Nintendo Switch" and an exclusive Mario Kart, that's what I expect.

I absolutely do not think Nintendo is going to be releasing Switch 1 games in 2026. Their teams are not gonna want to be held back by 2005 tech any longer than necessary.

 

[Skittzo]

I mean it's a next-gen system regardless of how they end up advertising it. It's a next-gen CPU, it's a next-gen GPU, it's next-gen rendering hardware and software. We also know it will have exclusive games.

This is really just an argument over the name. I agree they probably won't call it "Switch 2," but something like "Super Nintendo Switch" and an exclusive Mario Kart, that's what I expect.

I absolutely do not think Nintendo is going to be releasing Switch 1 games in 2026. Their teams are not gonna want to be held back by 2005 tech any longer than necessary.

"Next gen" is a meaningless phrase. It means whatever the marketing department wants it to mean.

The hardware is a large leap but it's still going to have the same development and software ecosystem. Same as the GBC or n3DS, despite those not using new architectures.

Wii was "next gen" despite being a much smaller increase over the Gamecube compared to the n3DS over the 3DS, or GBC over GB, or hell probably even DSi over DS. It's completely meaningless outside of marketing.

 

[Dakhil]

I don't think the DLSS model*'s going to be a traditional successor in the sense that the cross-gen period for the DLSS model*'s probably going to last much longer than the traditional cross-gen period for traditional successors. I've always thought the DLSS model* is an iterative successor in the similar vein to how the next iPhone's an iterative successor to the previous iPhone, with the name being the exception, of course. I think the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S are exceptions rather than the norm due to the current situation.

 

[ShadowFox08]

Calling Dane “Switch 2” serves no real purpose to the new Nintendo imo. Just call it Switch 4K or something and market it as another premium model of Switch but aimed at the TV user (using DLSS to hit much higher resolutions) rather than the portable user. They’ll sell 10-20million on that premise alone.

If they call it Switch 2 you immediately piss off a large portion of your user base and create confusion amongst consumers about which games work on the old system and which are new ‘next generation’ only Switch games further confused with the first year or two being cross gen games anyway. These customers have also only had their Switch for a few years or less (they’ve sold what 30-40% of the entire Switch total since Covid?).

Nintendo also said in 2021 that Switch was only halfway through it’s life cycle so unless Dane isn’t coming for another 3 years it won’t be Switch 2. I think it’s fairly obvious that Dane will be revealed either just before E3 2022 or late Summer 2022 and targeted to release in November 2022 with BotW 2.

Umm what? Just because Nintendo says it's halfway through it's cycle, doesn't mean we have to wait until 2025 for a successor. It can mean 1st party support will cease in 2025. The Switch 2 can come out before then and they be supported at the same time like last gen and PS4/xbone.

Anyhow, when Switch ends support is more dependent on market interest and sales. It can certainly last asong as the handheld consoles.

2/3 of the leakers I mentioned said it was a 2022 product up until Bloomberg proclaimed it was coming this year. Those don't go out the window because one of them got the year wrong due to confusion between developer sources and supply line sources.


I've been advocating this for years now and I still believe it will be the case- Nintendo will not release a traditional "next gen" successor until 2027-2028 if not later. Switch is going to be their primary platform for the foreseeable future and will have multiple points of entry including the Lite, the regular or OLED Switch, and the new 4k Switch. This is not going to be like a traditional generation because generations are and have been fairly meaningless for a while now. Only really Sony holds onto them as a concept and even that just turned out to be lip service.

Dane is going to be a new iteration of Switch, but not a typical "Switch 2". Also not a "Switch Pro". Nintendo has been doing these kinds of iterative upgrades far longer than anyone else and there's zero reason to believe they will stop doing it.

IIRC, Nate said months before it would have a lot of similar games with switch in the first year or so, but it would start to have exclusives after.
That doesn't sound like a pro model to me.

Anyhow plans change all the time.

i don't doubt things will be different this time, because in the past, home consoles have dropped off in sales really fast by the end of the 4th year to beginning of 5th year, and Nintendo started the successor earlier than it's rivals and dropped off support pretty fast. But it's different with switch now. it's still selling well and about to reach it's 5th year in 2 months. At this point releasing a successor in Q4 2022 seems a bit odd, but it can work. Wouldn't be surprised if we get it in 2023 though.

I don't think the DLSS model*'s going to be a traditional successor in the sense that the cross-gen period for the DLSS model*'s probably going to last much longer than the traditional cross-gen period for traditional successors. I've always thought the DLSS model* is an iterative successor in the similar vein to how the next iPhone's an iterative successor to the previous iPhone, with the name being the exception, of course. I think the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S are exceptions rather than the norm due to the current situation.

the PS4 and xbone had a lot of cross gen games for the first 2 years while ps3 and 360 were still supported

 

[Branduil]

"Next gen" is a meaningless phrase. It means whatever the marketing department wants it to mean.

The hardware is a large leap but it's still going to have the same development and software ecosystem. Same as the GBC or n3DS, despite those not using new architectures.

Wii was "next gen" despite being a much smaller increase over the Gamecube compared to the n3DS over the 3DS, or GBC over GB, or hell probably even DSi over DS. It's completely meaningless outside of marketing.

It's not meaningless in the way I was using it, which is talking about hardware which an order of magnitude more powerful than the original Switch. There's going to be a clear and undeniable visual difference between games built for the hardware (or downports by 3rd parties) and Switch games which get up-rezzed. That same power difference is why Nintendo's internal teams aren't gonna want to keep making Switch versions when Switch 1 has stopped selling and everyone has moved to Dane Switch

 

[Dekuman]

It will be interesting to see how Nintendo handles rollout of a truly more powerful Switch when it does come.

I hope they learned their lesson with the Wii U. A simple '2' or 'Super' would work a lot better than trying to be be cute with the name.

 

[Deleted member 2]

Umm what? Just because Nintendo says it's halfway through it's cycle,

Umm what? Just because Nintendo says it's halfway through it's cycle,

I think you double posted? Anyway, can we cool it with the Umm what's? It feels a little hostile. If you're confused just ask for clarification.

 

[Dakhil]

the PS4 and xbone had a lot of cross gen games for the first 2 years while ps3 and 360 were still supported

I can see the cross-gen period for the PlayStation 5, the Xbox Series X|S, and the DLSS model* last much longer than 2 years, especially with strong demand for ABF substrates not expected to subside until around 2026-2027.

 

[Skittzo]

IIRC, Nate said months before it would have a lot of similar games with switch in the first year or so, but it would start to have exclusives after.
That doesn't sound like a pro model to me.

Anyhow plans change all the time.

i don't doubt things will be different this time, because in the past, home consoles have dropped off in sales really fast by the end of the 4th year to beginning of 5th year, and Nintendo started the successor earlier than it's rivals and dropped off support pretty fast. But it's different with switch now. it's still selling well and about to reach it's 5th year in 2 months. At this point releasing a successor in Q4 2022 seems a bit odd, but it can work. Wouldn't be surprised if we get it in 2023 though.

I mean I literally said in the post you replied to that it won't be a "pro". We agree there.

I'm saying that the old/traditional idea of a "successor" is, I believe, dead.

It's not meaningless in the way I was using it, which is talking about hardware which an order of magnitude more powerful than the original Switch. There's going to be a clear and undeniable visual difference between games built for the hardware (or downports by 3rd parties) and Switch games which get up-rezzed. That same power difference is why Nintendo's internal teams aren't gonna want to keep making Switch versions when Switch 1 has stopped selling and everyone has moved to Dane Switch

It's not an order of magnitude more powerful though. Not even close. We're talking maybe 2-3x better GPU and 5-8x better CPU. An order of magnitude would be a flat 10x increase for everything which we're absolutely not getting.

Reminder that the new 3DS had a 6x stronger CPU. Wii had at best 2x over GC but was called next gen. Because next gen is a marketing phrase and nothing else.

 

[Dakhil]

IIRC, Nate said months before it would have a lot of similar games with switch in the first year or so, but it would start to have exclusives after.
That doesn't sound like a pro model to me.

I believe NateDrake was only talking about third party developers, which I believe is a given, considering that third party developers always want more performance when developing games.

As for Nintendo, I can easily see Nintendo releasing cross-gen games for at the very least a minimum of 2 years.

 

[Procheno]

Another thing that confuses me is Splatoon 3.

If this is a big GaaS game like its supposed to, then wouldn't you want to put development focus on the system that will have the longer lifespan? Assuming Dane comes out in Q1 2013, then Splatoon 3's lifespan would be like 9 months of updates before it becomes old gen old news.

And then of course there's the feeling of waste when Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade waste all their momentum and marketing on their weaker version release on OG Switch. If they got a "Dane" patch, it's not the same and it'll take the wind out of the sails on such big releases. Just feels wasteful to me. Would rather they just wait until Dane comes out and cross release them so they all make a great first impression instead of lower framerate/resolution with lower image quality and effects. That's one thing that'll be disappointing imo.

I want Xenoblade to be that big "next gen" title showcase because Monolith Soft is one of Nintendo's premiere studios for visual Fidelity and graphic technology. And based on rumors, they would really benefit the extra power and could blow people away when they first showcase Xenoblade 3

 

[Pokemaniac]

Another thing that confuses me is Splatoon 3.

If this is a big GaaS game like its supposed to, then wouldn't you want to put development focus on the system that will have the longer lifespan? Assuming Dane comes out in Q1 2013, then Splatoon 3's lifespan would be like 9 months of updates before it becomes old gen old news.

And then of course there's the feeling of waste when Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade waste all their momentum and marketing on their weaker version release on OG Switch. If they got a "Dane" patch, it's not the same and it'll take the wind out of the sails on such big releases. Just feels wasteful to me. Would rather they just wait until Dane comes out and cross release them so they all make a great first impression instead of lower framerate/resolution with lower image quality and effects. That's one thing that'll be disappointing imo.

I want Xenoblade to be that big "next gen" title showcase because Monolith Soft is one of Nintendo's premiere studios for visual Fidelity and graphic technology. And based on rumors, they would really benefit the extra power and could blow people away when they first showcase Xenoblade 3

In general, I think a shift in thinking is required. Even first party games aren't necessarily limited to a single platform anymore. Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, and Xenoblade 3 can be just as much games for Dane as for Switch.

 

[Skittzo]

Another thing that confuses me is Splatoon 3.

If this is a big GaaS game like its supposed to, then wouldn't you want to put development focus on the system that will have the longer lifespan? Assuming Dane comes out in Q1 2013, then Splatoon 3's lifespan would be like 9 months of updates before it becomes old gen old news.

And then of course there's the feeling of waste when Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade waste all their momentum and marketing on their weaker version release on OG Switch. If they got a "Dane" patch, it's not the same and it'll take the wind out of the sails on such big releases. Just feels wasteful to me. Would rather they just wait until Dane comes out and cross release them so they all make a great first impression instead of lower framerate/resolution with lower image quality and effects. That's one thing that'll be disappointing imo.

I want Xenoblade to be that big "next gen" title showcase because Monolith Soft is one of Nintendo's premiere studios for visual Fidelity and graphic technology. And based on rumors, they would really benefit the extra power and could blow people away when they first showcase Xenoblade 3

Well luckily the actual rumors we currently have are pegging Dane to release in 2022 so it's possible all of those launch at or after Dane's launch to help.

I'm guessing Splatoon 3 definitely won't though. It's a GaaS game so it doesn't really matter though when it launches, and it's not exactly aimed at the same audience that want to buy Dane day 1.

 

[Branduil]

I mean I literally said in the post you replied to that it won't be a "pro". We agree there.

I'm saying that the old/traditional idea of a "successor" is, I believe, dead.

It's not an order of magnitude more powerful though. Not even close. We're talking maybe 2-3x better GPU and 5-8x better CPU. An order of magnitude would be a flat 10x increase for everything which we're absolutely not getting.

Reminder that the new 3DS had a 6x stronger CPU. Wii had at best 2x over GC but was called next gen. Because next gen is a marketing phrase and nothing else.

It's not a flat 10x across the board but when you account for new technology like DLSS and RTX, it's absolutely going to blow away what the Switch can do. I'm not sure where 2x better GPU is coming from.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see if Nintendo is still releasing their big games on original Switch hardware in 2027. I really doubt it personally.

 

[Skittzo]

It's not a flat 10x across the board but when you account for new technology like DLSS and RTX, it's absolutely going to blow away what the Switch can do. I'm not sure where 2x better GPU is coming from.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see if Nintendo is still releasing their big games on original Switch hardware in 2027. I really doubt it personally.

I doubt it too, and I don't believe I ever said they would be. I expect support for the original Switch to partially phase out 3ish years after Dane launches. They'll still probably put out some smaller games (like Kirby, EPD4 games and maybe even Pokemon) for a few more years but most of their studios will probably just be putting out Dane Switch games.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Another thing that confuses me is Splatoon 3.

If this is a big GaaS game like its supposed to, then wouldn't you want to put development focus on the system that will have the longer lifespan? Assuming Dane comes out in Q1 2013, then Splatoon 3's lifespan would be like 9 months of updates before it becomes old gen old news.

And then of course there's the feeling of waste when Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade waste all their momentum and marketing on their weaker version release on OG Switch. If they got a "Dane" patch, it's not the same and it'll take the wind out of the sails on such big releases. Just feels wasteful to me. Would rather they just wait until Dane comes out and cross release them so they all make a great first impression instead of lower framerate/resolution with lower image quality and effects. That's one thing that'll be disappointing imo.

I want Xenoblade to be that big "next gen" title showcase because Monolith Soft is one of Nintendo's premiere studios for visual Fidelity and graphic technology. And based on rumors, they would really benefit the extra power and could blow people away when they first showcase Xenoblade 3

good advertisement fixes a lot of those problems. "Plays Best on Dane" or some shit. these are hardcore oriented titles, so those folks would be privy to Dane upgrades and would desire to play them on new systems

for Splatoon 3, an easy option would be to put the onto a Dane cart and box. also mention how people with the base switch can just upgrade. same as you see with cross gen games on Playstation and Xbox

 

[Terrell]

I mean I literally said in the post you replied to that it won't be a "pro". We agree there.

I'm saying that the old/traditional idea of a "successor" is, I believe, dead.

It's not an order of magnitude more powerful though. Not even close. We're talking maybe 2-3x better GPU and 5-8x better CPU. An order of magnitude would be a flat 10x increase for everything which we're absolutely not getting.

Reminder that the new 3DS had a 6x stronger CPU. Wii had at best 2x over GC but was called next gen. Because next gen is a marketing phrase and nothing else.

If Nvidia is only able to achieve a 2-3x GPU increase in the nearly 7 years since the Maxwell GPU in the Tegra X1, AMD would have 100% of the graphics card market by now. That’s like saying the jump from PS4 to PS5 isn’t next gen (And hey, if you believe it, feel free to say it in mixed company)

 

[Procheno]

Well luckily the actual rumors we currently have are pegging Dane to release in 2022 so it's possible all of those launch at or after Dane's launch to help.

I'm guessing Splatoon 3 definitely won't though. It's a GaaS game so it doesn't really matter though when it launches, and it's not exactly aimed at the same audience that want to buy Dane day 1.

We'll see about 2022. I personally hope it does but I doubt it. The chip shortage makes things even more difficult to gauge. Even the rumors don't know when it'll come out

 

[Skittzo]

If Nvidia is only able to achieve a 2-3x GPU increase in the nearly 7 years since the Maxwell GPU in the Tegra X1, AMD would have 100% of the graphics card market by now. That’s like saying the jump from PS4 to PS5 isn’t next gen (And hey, if you believe it, feel free to say it in mixed company)

There's only so much you can do on 8nm with a ~15-20W power budget while keeping the die small enough.

Unless I'm mistaken we're looking at somewhere between 2-3x the flops on this machine for both handheld and docked mode. Maybe in real world performance that'll be a higher gap but based on what we know of Orin it should be around there.

We'll see about 2022. I personally hope it does but I doubt it. The chip shortage makes things even more difficult to gauge. Even the rumors don't know when it'll come out

What rumors? Almost every rumor about this thing explicitly says (and has said for months to a year) 2022.

 

[Dekuman]

If Nvidia is only able to achieve a 2-3x GPU increase in the nearly 7 years since the Maxwell GPU in the Tegra X1, AMD would have 100% of the graphics card market by now. That’s like saying the jump from PS4 to PS5 isn’t next gen (And hey, if you believe it, feel free to say it in mixed company)

I think the per flop performance is that low because of all the other features grampped into the GPU since maxwell, primarily tensor and RT cores.
If all the space is just on CUDA cores, then we may get a much bigger lift.

There's certainly a possibility that Nintendo asked nvidia to build a custom GPU for them without DLSS or RT cores and just go for pure flops, but it's much more likely they are looking at exactly what we've been guessing which is a cut down version of their desktops with the Tensor and RT core included. The real question mark is the performance profile which so few tensor/RT cores and what exactly is achievable

 

[Terrell]

I think the per flop performance is that low because of all the other features grampped into the GPU since maxwell, primarily tensor and RT cores.
If all the space is just on CUDA cores, then we may get a much bigger lift.

There's certainly a possibility that Nintendo asked nvidia to build a custom GPU for them without DLSS or RT cores and just go for pure flops, but it's much more likely they are looking at exactly what we've been guessing which is a cut down version of their desktops with the Tensor and RT core included. The real question mark is the performance profile which so few tensor/RT cores and what exactly is achievable

Yeah, that was what I was kinda getting at, FLOP comparisons tell a really overall terrible story wrt performance.

There's only so much you can do on 8nm with a ~15-20W power budget while keeping the die small enough.

And there was only so much that could be done on 20nm with the same power budget while keeping a small die back in 2015.
All things being considered, the Tegra X1 and the upcoming Orin variant are going to be as equal as you could possibly get in TDP and die size, only separated by 7 years of technological advances. What you’re suggesting is that those 7 years were basically a waste of everyone’s time if all they got out of it is 2-3x performance improvements, it’d be laughably bad. And yet Nvidia is considered much more highly than that, so it makes me arch an eyebrow high enough for it to disappear into my hairline.

 

[Skittzo]

And there was only so much that could be done on 20nm with the same power budget while keeping a small die.
All things being considered, the Tegra X1 and the upcoming Orin variant are going to be as equal as you could possibly get in TDP and die size, only separated by 7 years of technological advances. What you’re suggesting is that those 7 years were basically a waste of everyone’s time if all they got out of it is 2-3x performance improvements, it’d be laughably bad. And yet Nvidia is considered much more highly than that, so it makes me arch an eyebrow high enough for it to disappear into my hairline.

To be fair 8nm is not Nvidia's leading process node at the moment. You can theoretically make mobile chips on 5nm in 2022 and they'll be a good deal more advanced but this particular chip of Nvidia's that Nintendo chose to use is on a process several years old.

And, yes I am talking about on paper specs. Because everything else is much more nebulous and hard to pin down exact numbers. It should effectively be a larger boost for plenty of games, especially those that utilize DLSS. But it won't be as massive as many people are touting. Which is part of the reason why some think them waiting until 2023 or even 2024 would not be smart, because this chip won't be nearly as impressive then.


But I believe the consensus from this thread based on what we know of Orin is that we're looking at 2-3x the FLOPS, at the most.

 

[Alovon11]

To be fair 8nm is not Nvidia's leading process node at the moment. You can theoretically make mobile chips on 5nm in 2022 and they'll be a good deal more advanced but this particular chip of Nvidia's that Nintendo chose to use is on a process several years old.

And, yes I am talking about on paper specs. Because everything else is much more nebulous and hard to pin down exact numbers. It should effectively be a larger boost for plenty of games, especially those that utilize DLSS. But it won't be as massive as many people are touting. Which is part of the reason why some think them waiting until 2023 or even 2024 would not be smart, because this chip won't be nearly as impressive then.


But I believe the consensus from this thread based on what we know of Orin is that we're looking at 2-3x the FLOPS, at the most.

Again, I will note that FLOPs have to be converted for a proper comparision.

Tegra X1 FLOPs =/= Pascal FLOPs =/= Ampere FLOPs =/= Orin FLOPs.

While the Switch docked is at 500GFLOPs of "TX1" (Between Maxwell and Pascal due to features of Pascal being affixed onto Maxwell in the TX1), 500GFLOPs of Orin would likely blow the OG Switch docked performance out of the water.

 

[Skittzo]

Again, I will note that FLOPs have to be converted for a proper comparision.

Tegra X1 FLOPs =/= Pascal FLOPs =/= Ampere FLOPs =/= Orin FLOPs.

While the Switch docked is at 500GFLOPs of "TX1" (Between Maxwell and Pascal due to features of Pascal being affixed onto Maxwell in the TX1), 500GFLOPs of Orin would likely blow the OG Switch docked performance out of the water.

Could be, but again the only real numbers we have that we can use are these flops. And that real world performance will differ from game to game and engine to engine.

It's definitely important to note that flops aren't equal but in terms of nailing down a "X times increase" kind of comparison it's all we can really use.

 

[karmitt]

When people are insisting that 2023 or beyond is more likely, is it based on rumours at all - or is it just catastrophic thinking?

The (H2) 2022 line-up makes a whole lot more sense to be paired with new hardware. They're ticking off major releases that won't have follow-ups for years. After Breath of the Wild 2, it's safe to say the next 3D Zelda will be 2026-2027. Splatoon and Xenoblade would be similar. So are we really proposing that Nintendo is going to release all these titles, have the bulk of core gamers finish playing them, and only then release bleeding edge new hardware that's meant to last for another 5 years? Were I Nintendo I'd just give Zelda more time - in fact I wouldn't have advertised 2022 in the first place.

Also - people are being far too stubborn about the meaning of "Pro" here. We're just hooking into a familiar term coined from literally one generation of gaming consoles, and Nintendo's approach won't necessarily be like-for-like with what happened there. When I say I think it's going to be a "Pro", I mean to say that it'll share more in common with the positioning of a PS4 Pro than a PS5. Unlike a PS5, Nintendo may spend the entire life of the "Dane" console advertising it hand in hand with the OLED/OG models.

 

[ILikeFeet]

When people are insisting that 2023 or beyond is more likely, is it based on rumours at all - or is it just catastrophic thinking?

the usual thinking is "chip shortage". after that, it's line up and sales are both too good

 

[davec00ke]

we don't know for sure the next S

When people are insisting that 2023 or beyond is more likely, is it based on rumours at all - or is it just catastrophic thinking?

The (H2) 2022 line-up makes a whole lot more sense to be paired with new hardware. They're ticking off major releases that won't have follow-ups for years. After Breath of the Wild 2, it's safe to say the next 3D Zelda will be 2026-2027. Splatoon and Xenoblade would be similar. So are we really proposing that Nintendo is going to release all these titles, have the bulk of core gamers finish playing them, and only then release bleeding edge new hardware that's meant to last for another 5 years? Were I Nintendo I'd just give Zelda more time - in fact I wouldn't have advertised 2022 in the first place.

They want to release all those games on a 100m+ userbase

TEAM 2023

 

[Skittzo]

When people are insisting that 2023 or beyond is more likely, is it based on rumours at all - or is it just catastrophic thinking?

As far as I've seen not a single rumor from any credible source has said anything other than 2022 at this point.

 

[karmitt]

we don't know for sure the next S

They want to release all those games on a 100m+ userbase

TEAM 2023

They will be? It’s been reported many times that most titles aren’t exclusive. Nates just mentioned he’s heard of some third party exceptions

Edit: Having these titles review, and be socialized (advertised) on new hardware will do well in revitalizing interest among the core.

 

[ILikeFeet]

random aside, someone brought it up on the gaming sales discord and I just had to check. amazing what can "run" games on low settings with enough watts

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Do we even know if the 2H2022 refers to being playable on a device? or actually finished in dev time to be released at a later time similar to how Metroid Dread was apparently finished for a while but released in October 2021?

If the former, can I see where this came from?

 

[ILikeFeet]

Do we even know if the 2H2022 refers to being playable on a device? or actually finished in dev time to be released at a later time similar to how Metroid Dread was apparently finished for a while but released in October 2021?

If the former, can I see where this came from?

I assume the latter. NateDrake said the targeted completion date didn't necessarily mean release date

 

[ika]

Imo the debate of it being either Switch Pro or Switch 2 when we have a general estimation of this particular thing supposedly being released somewhere around late 2022 - early/mid 2023 doesn't make sense.

Nintendo has never ever released a new system with such a strong lineup in its previous system's last year. Nintendo has always had slow years before the launch of a new system due to their internal teams transitioning and needing time.

Doesn't make sense for them to just dump all their biggest software on their last gen system half a year or a full year prior. Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Zelda BotW 2, Xenoblade 3, all system seller games and by far some of the largest games (both technical in scale and team size) Nintendo has ever produced would all be crucial in selling their new system. Having them all come out months if not a year early takes out all energy out of their wings if they were to port or patch them with higher fidelity if that's what they want to pair their new console with. Then all those teams would take 3+ years to come up with something actually native to the Switch 2.

But then again at the same time, I could see these games come in 2023 as a first year launch lineup:

BotW 2 (if it became a cross gen release like the original)
3D Mario game
Yabuki's team game
Metroid Prime 4 cross platform release
Astral Chain 2?
New Fire Emblem title release (OG Switch gets a remake in 2022)
New Next Level Games title

Not having a game like Animal Crossing or Splatoon near release for the Japanese market would be a shame but a new Mario Kart would take up that mantle easily. Plus with new powerful hardware and a more marketable audience for third party titles, maybe 3rd parties would jump on quicker and have a better first year lineup as well (maybe even some exclusives, especially in the AA Japanese 3rd party department due to the flop of the PS5 in Japan)

Yeah, if they're planning to release a new console in 2023 just mere months after a big blowout of some of very important franchises (Splatoon, Zelda, Bayonetta, Arceus, probably Xenoblade, a new Metroid or even a new Mario game), unless this is a Pro-type extension of the OG Switch, it doesn't make any sense, even if it launchs with something like Mario Kart 9 (re-releasing them ala BOTW and Twilight Princess would be an option, but too convoluted for the consumer, IMO, if done with too many games).

The real NEXT Nintendo console (that it's not Switch branded or establishes a radical/new concept) won't be out until at least another 4-5 years (when the teams behind those franchises -Mario, Zelda, Splatoon, Xeno, etc.- has ready another big project), being 3 years the absolute minimum if something bad happens with Switch and Nintendo has to rush a new system. Unless Nintendo decides to launch the console with tier-B franchises (like GameCube with Luigi's Mansion, Wave Race), that don't make too much sense right now, or a totally new lineup based on a revolutionary new gimmick (like Wii Sports) that renders core franchises irrelevant for selling purposes and gives them extra time to develop them.

Until then, we'll get new iterations of Switch every one and a half or two years (the fabled Dane-DLSS based system would be one of them). And even then, that NEXT Nintendo system in the next 4-5 years will probably be backwards compatible with all the Switch family game cards and eShop software.

Just my 2c.

 

[Branduil]

It just makes zero sense for Nintendo to blow huge amounts of money on a 2-year console revision. That has never been their M.O. and I don't think it makes any business sense either. Dane Switch will certainly be backwards compatible so it's not like games like BotW 2, Splatoon 3, etc. will stop selling. They'll still be evergreen titles years from now. Add new games like Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 4, 3rd party ports etc., I don't think Dane Switch will be starved for titles.

 

[ILikeFeet]

The simple answer is that it's not a short term revision, but a long term successor. A short term enhancement would look more like the new 3ds did: cpu boost to 2GHz, 6GB of ram and an gpu boost to 500MHz/1GHz. All doable with the move to 12nm, though battery would be similar to the launch switch

 

[Procheno]

It just makes zero sense for Nintendo to blow huge amounts of money on a 2-year console revision. That has never been their M.O. and I don't think it makes any business sense either. Dane Switch will certainly be backwards compatible so it's not like games like BotW 2, Splatoon 3, etc. will stop selling. They'll still be evergreen titles years from now. Add new games like Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 4, 3rd party ports etc., I don't think Dane Switch will be starved for titles.

I think a lot of people, including myself are just:

1. Not used to Nintendo consoles (or handhelds for that matter) having an explosive last year for software. Nintendo has always had dry spells in the final year for a system because of the development transition to the next system.

2. People excited for those games want those games to launch in the best state possible, not just technically (aka not just a res/fps bump which Nintendo has a history of doing with cross gen games), but also mindshare. Old "last gen" games with historically front-selling sales (aka JRPGs like Xenoblade, or action games like Bayonetta, strategy games, etc) that are released 6 months - a year before the release of the new gen console will most likely not catch the 2nd wind like Zelda. It comes with the territory of new gen and old gen system cycles. It's about marketing, excitement, what's "now". Sony saw that with the PS4 to PS5, hence why they moved onto PS5 real quick because that's where the attention and install base activity moves to. And it'll be another 3-5 long years for those studios to release their next big game native to the new system.

I'm anticipating to see how next year pans out. There's so many possibilities of what could happen! I'll get to finally see the next Monolith Soft game :O I'm still hoping in my heart that they have a secret 2nd team making another Monolith Soft title not named Xenoblade 3 or X port

 

[Terrell]

A packed 2022 lineup means nothing in terms of new hardware planning.

GBA titles released just before the DS in 2004: Fire Emblem Sacred Stones, Pokemon FireRed/LeafGreen, the NES Classics series, Minish Cap, Mario vs. DK, Metroid Zero Mission

And yet April 2004-March 2005 was GBA's best total software sales per fiscal year (84.57 million), in spite of the DS already being announced and released in that time window. The following FY was no slouch for software either (59.36 million), despite a much less exciting 2005 release lineup for GBA, which means the lifetime catalog of titles/evergreens is most responsible for that 59.36 million pieces of software post-DS launch in FY 2006. People were buying software despite the replacement of the hardware it was originally designed for.

I expect the same to be true for Switch software in a post-Dane world, so the lineup really doesn't feel like it should have any impact there.

 

[Abzeronow]

Final Fantasy I & II were also ported to the GBA in 2004. July 29 for Japan, November 29 for the US (these were based on the earlier WonderSwan Color ports in 2000 and 2001)

 

[Procheno]

A packed 2022 lineup means nothing in terms of new hardware planning.

GBA titles released just before the DS in 2004: Fire Emblem Sacred Stones, Pokemon FireRed/LeafGreen, the NES Classics series, Minish Cap, Mario vs. DK, Metroid Zero Mission

And yet April 2004-March 2005 was GBA's best total software sales per fiscal year (84.57 million), in spite of the DS already being announced and released in that time window. The following FY was no slouch for software either (59.36 million), despite a much less exciting 2005 release lineup for GBA, which means the overall catalog of titles is most responsible for that 59.36 million pieces of software post-DS launch.

Not saying Nintendo having a stellar 2022 lineup and launch a new console the same year or Q1 2023 is impossible, but it is highly unusual by modern Nintendo standards.

This isn't the GBA days where games took 1 year to make. Now they take 3-5. Also 2004 was only the GBA's 3rd year on the market compared to Switch's 6th (which of course could point to being close to a new generation but the argument is software lineup).

The 3DS software during 2016-2017 was not very good. Wii U was a tragic desert on an abandoned planet. Wii basically had Skyward Sword and Kirby Return to Dreamland for all of 2011 and absolutely nothing in 2012.

Don't get me wrong, a new gen is exciting to me because that means big change, a new Nintendo era, newer and bigger games, features (lol), ideas, etc. I just want their 2022 lineup, especially Xenoblade 3, Bayonetta 3, and BotW 2 for me, to get that big energetic push by being tied to the 4k Switch system. The last thing I want is people everywhere whining and dragging these games down for not being technically up to par to the standards set by the PS4/PS4 Pro, not even the PS5, you know? I know, it's stupid but I want Xenoblade 3 and Bayonetta 3 to pay off big time in scores, sales, and word of mouth so we get more big games like these

 

[Pokemaniac]

Not saying Nintendo having a stellar 2022 lineup and launch a new console the same year or Q1 2023 is impossible, but it is highly unusual by modern Nintendo standards.

This isn't the GBA days where games took 1 year to make. Now they take 3-5. Also 2004 was only the GBA's 3rd year on the market compared to Switch's 6th (which of course could point to being close to a new generation but the argument is software lineup).

The 3DS software during 2016-2017 was not very good. Wii U was a tragic desert on an abandoned planet. Wii basically had Skyward Sword and Kirby Return to Dreamland for all of 2011 and absolutely nothing in 2012.

Don't get me wrong, a new gen is exciting to me because that means big change, a new Nintendo era, newer and bigger games, features (lol), ideas, etc. I just want their 2022 lineup, especially Xenoblade 3, Bayonetta 3, and BotW 2 for me, to get that big energetic push by being tied to the 4k Switch system. The last thing I want is people everywhere whining and dragging these games down for not being technically up to par to the standards set by the PS4/PS4 Pro, not even the PS5, you know? I know, it's stupid but I want Xenoblade 3 and Bayonetta 3 to pay off big time in scores, sales, and word of mouth so we get more big games like these

The reality is that all of the upcoming games Nintendo has already announced, and probably still a decent number that haven't, have been developed with the current Switch as the lead platform. Xenoblade is the only game you list where it's even possible that might not be true, though I'm sure it will look fine regardless, and we'll probably have to wait another game for Monolith to include overly ambitious ray tracing either way.

Also, the people that whine about Switch games not looking as good as PS and Xbox games don't really matter much anyway. Xenoblade 2 is the most successful game in the series despite plenty of (probably somewhat deserved) complaints about the resolution.