• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
OctoSplattack said:
I have no idea how Nintendo could botch the marketing so hard that people would think that the new hardware is not only redundant to what they currently own, but is also somehow less powerful than than what they currently own. Unless the next Mario looks like a N64 game, I legitimately have no idea how this would happen.
Click to expand...
market Switch sucessor in a way that make people think the console is another Switch model(basicaly how the anounced Wii U)
 
OctoSplattack said:
I have no idea how Nintendo could botch the marketing so hard that people would think that the new hardware is not only redundant to what they currently own, but is also somehow less powerful than than what they currently own. Unless the next Mario looks like a N64 game, I legitimately have no idea how this would happen.
Click to expand...
If they pulll a Wii U and market the switch 2, like and add on.

But that seems extremely unlikely since Nintendo has changed their marketing team deeply, in a way that’s it’s actually insane how good the marketing has become.
 
Goodtwin said:
True, but then we would have to apply that to the Xbox to Xbox 360, so instead of a 12x advancement, it would be more like 15-20x. Also, compared to going from fixed function shaders in the Xbox to DX9 level programmable shaders, this was a completely change in rendering technology. Mesh shaders would still be a extension of programable shaders and I see that as more evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Ray Tracing would be revolutionary because it completely changes the way rendering works, but PS5 and the Series consoles do not have adequate Ray Tracing performance to fully embrace it.

I would argue that since 2005, graphics rendering has been evolutionary. With the PS3 and even the 360 (albeit to a lesser extent), developers were utilizing the CPU's to implement rendering techniques that weren't supported on the DX9 GPU's those consoles had equipped. Which means there were games on the PS3/360 using rendering techniques that didn't become standard until the following generation, and that softened the wow factor when those new console launched. I would argue that the leap from PS4 to PS5 is even less pronounced. Its more of the same by in large. Yes, there are numerous improvements, but many of these improvements require the player to really look for those more nuanced details. This is subjective of course. What I consider to a modest leap forward in graphics technology another person maybe find it to be absolutely jaw dropping.
Click to expand...
To be fair, I don't think it's possible to see something like that ever again since even raytracing could be considered iterative from the pre-rendered CGI/Hollywood industry. Mesh shaders (and by proxy Nanite) are totally revolutionary at their approach because they change the way we render videogame geometry at its core, it allows for a theoretically infinite amount of triangles as long as the hardware has the overhead and cleverly culls from the smallest to biggest triangles for essentially the best of both worlds, quality and performance. The PS4 to PS5 leap is obviously less pronounced than the others and it shows in the numbers, but the proliferation of last gen engines this far into the generation hasn't helped in the slightest and we already saw what this leap can do, it's definitely no slouch or needs you to look at "more nuanced details.

Nuff said, one only needs to look at Hellblade 2 or 1943 to make that conclusion (made around the UE Nanite/Lumen paradigm), with the later shipping by the next 18 months. Just because the rest of the industry fumbled their tool development doesn't mean everyone did, game rendering can still work smarter and I trust Nintendo to give us a fair share of how that looks like.
 
Concernt said:
Super has been used to mean next gen, successfully, in the past.

It is entirely unambiguous and understood to mean "above" or "next". Which also happens to be what super means, to be above.
Click to expand...
It was used 30 years ago, in a time long before we started seeing mid-gen releases with name additions like New or Pro which now leave the waters muddy for future uses of similar words.
 
Giancarlo said:
market Switch sucessor in a way that make people think the console is another Switch model(basicaly how the anounced Wii U)
Click to expand...
Hopefully, Wii U taught them a valuable lesson and we won't see a repeat with the Switch successor. I loved the Wii U, but the name was no good and the marketing was terrible putting way too much focus on the gamepad.
 
Giancarlo said:
market Switch sucessor in a way that make people think the console is another Switch model(basicaly how the anounced Wii U)
Click to expand...
The fact that they're delaying this thing to give their games more polish (if that is to be believed), makes it more likely they will have first party software at launch that shows everyone that this is no Switch. Imo.
 
Giancarlo said:
market Switch sucessor in a way that make people think the console is another Switch model(basicaly how the anounced Wii U)
Click to expand...
I'm not even concerned about this anymore because of how well the OLED has sold. If "it's just another Switch model" would kill interest I'd have expected the OLED to tank, but it just sold and sold, with many people who already had a Switch replacing them with it, even without any additional processing power or different games. Imagine what it'll be like when "just another Switch model" that does have more power and games releases.

I know the WiiU was rough but consider what it was following. The Wii sold like hotcakes but its mainstream identity was so heavily wrapped around Wii Sports and waggle, and that's what so many families purchased it for. A sequel to that system? Doesn't shock me that people went "eh, we already have one at home."

But the Switch has shown itself to be a completely different beast than the Wii with a completely different identity that revolves around a huge library of quality games, and is still selling surprisingly well for its age. Demand for the platform and its library is strong, and enthusiasts are rabid for a new, more powerful model whereas at a similar point in Wii's life cycle most enthusiasts had already ditched it and the casual family players had already had their full of Wii Sports. This is different. It's so different. People are aware of and paying attention to Nintendo in ways they haven't since the SNES. Seriously some of my friends hadn't played games since the SNES, and the Switch hooked their interest and brought them back in.

I know I've said before but a teacher I know who doesn't even follow gaming or tech news tells me her class is constantly talking about Switch 2 rumors. People are gonna know what this thing is. I seriously don't see how the Switch 2 isn't successful with this sort of momentum and awareness in its favor. Regardless of the name, regardless of marketing. It might not hit the same lifetime sales or sell at the same speed (what the hell possibly could?), but it's gonna be pretty dang big.
 
Last edited:
chocolate_supra said:
I'm not even concerned about this anymore because of how well the OLED has sold. If "it's just another Switch model" would kill interest I'd have expected the OLED to tank, but it just sold and sold, with many people who already had a Switch replacing them with it, even without any additional processing power or different games. Imagine what it'll be like when "just another Switch model" that does have more power and games releases.

I know the WiiU was rough but consider what it was following. The Wii sold like hotcakes but its mainstream identity was so heavily wrapped around Wii Sports and waggle, and that's what so many families purchased it for. A sequel to that system? Doesn't shock me that people went "eh, we already have one at home."

But the Switch has shown itself to be a completely different beast than the Wii with a completely different identity that revolves around a huge library of quality games, and is still selling surprisingly well for its age. Demand for the platform and its library is strong, and enthusiasts are rabid for a new, more powerful model while at a similar point in Wii's life cycle most enthusiasts had already ditched it and the casual family players had already had their full of Wii Sports. This is different. It's so different. People are aware of and paying attention to Nintendo in ways they haven't since the SNES. Seriously some of my friends hadn't played games since the SNES, and the Switch hooked their interest and brought them back in.

I know I've said before but a teacher I know who doesn't even follow gaming news or tech tells me her class is constantly talking about Switch 2 rumors. People are gonna know what this thing is. I seriously don't see how the Switch 2 isn't successful with this sort of momentum and awareness in its favor. Regardless of the name, regardless of marketing. It might not hit the same lifetime sales or sell at the same speed (what the hell possibly could?), but it's gonna be pretty dang big.
Click to expand...
The OLED released several years ago still. If an OLED model would release today, the story would be very different.
 
0
eye0h said:
Didn’t he mention there was some info shared at gdc? Some good some bad? Would be interesting if it were that.
Click to expand...
"Welcome to the Podcast, we got some news from GDC. Good news, we heard about the Switch 2 there; bad news, it was privately revealed that it wouldn't be at GDC."
 
SoldierDelta said:
"Welcome to the Podcast, we got some news from GDC. Good news, we heard about the Switch 2 there; bad news, it was privately revealed that it wouldn't be at GDC."
Click to expand...
If he just mention couple of third party ports and hopefully first party, then we’re good.

Like I think this podcast episode will talk more about software.
 
Steve said:
If he just mention couple of third party ports and hopefully first party, then we’re good.

Like I think this podcast episode will talk more about software.
Click to expand...
I feel like we're too far from release to be doing stuff like that, he could be burning sources at that point. We don't even know if he's gonna talk Nintendo at all. Xbox conversation has been quite interesting given their talks of handhelds and them shifting their business strategies more and more.
 
eye0h said:
Didn’t he mention there was some info shared at gdc? Some good some bad? Would be interesting if it were that.
Click to expand...
He also said there was a bit of a backup of streamlabs questions due to scheduling issues and such, so he and MVG might be doing a catch-up episode of those soon.
 
Goodtwin said:
Im not a big fan of these very long lifecycles, fatigue sets in for me after about 5-6 years and I am ready for upgraded hardware. However, I do believe longer life cycles are here to stay. Generational leaps are getting harder and harder for console makers to attain within the restrictions of a mass market price point. Technology was advancing so rapidly that for years it was possible to turn out a new console every 5-6 years that provided a generational leap and still hit the target price point. Take the Xbox to Xbox 360 transition, that was only a four year generation but Microsoft was able to go from a 20 Gflop console in 2001 to a 240 Gflop console, a 12x upgrade in only four years and that is still underselling the upgrade because programable shaders revolutionized graphics rendering at that time. Now compare that to the 5-6x upgrade for the PS4 to PS5 that took seven years and didn't bring along any revolutionary changes to rendering technology. If the PS5 were capable of making better use of Ray Tracing, then perhaps that would have been a revolutionary change in rendering technology, but because it is rather limited with most games sticking to more traditionally rendering techniques, its a more straightforward leap from the PS4 to PS5.

Because the road map for smaller and smaller nodes is rapidly slowing down, we know that we cannot expect to see significant performance improvements from smaller nodes in the future. Unless some completely new chip technology comes along and revolutionizes that industry and currently that doesn't appear to be happening any time real soon. Assuming T239 does end up being a 3Tflop SOC, it will be increasingly difficult to create an SOC that offers a 10x upgrade a handful of years later that still fits within the limitations of a hybrid console. Outside of a disaster with SNG where Nintendo is forced to hurry new hardware to market, I entirely expect Nintendo to enter this upcoming generation with the expectation of a 7-8 year life cycle.

I got my NES back in 1989, SNES in 1995, and N64 in 1997. In a shorter amount of time than Switch has been on the market, I went through three console generations. Its true that I got my NES and certainly the SNES a bit later in their life cycle, but even if you look at it from the perspective of release dates, the NES released in the US in 1986 and the N64 released in 1996. That's three consoles released in matter of a decade, and all of them provided significant upgrades. For those of us who are old enough, we were very fortunate live through the rapid advancements in gaming technology. Things are at a snails pace these days by comparison.
Click to expand...
Oh yes. Can't agree with you enough. I miss the shorter cycles. Back then we could easily see 2 consoles a decade. The excitement for the next console was more fun and great!

Now it feels like a console a decade. Couple that with me being 43 (soon 44) and it feels like I won't be seeing many like I used to. Don't have much time left!
 
eye0h said:
I feel like we're too far from release to be doing stuff like that, he could be burning sources at that point. We don't even know if he's gonna talk Nintendo at all. Xbox conversation has been quite interesting given their talks of handhelds and them shifting their business strategies more and more.
Click to expand...
We might possibly hear, some things of Epic games and Steam launcher, possibly coming to Xbox, but it might be phil just saying things for the sake of saying.

Wouldn't also be surprised, hearing some stuff from Sony this podcast, since there's been rumor coming along, where developers feels iffy on the Ps5 pro.
But would be great if he mentioned stuff from CDG, like switch 2 and the PS5 Pro.
 
TLZ said:
Nintendo Switch T239.

The first of the Terminators.
Click to expand...

catching-car.gif

"Nintendo Switch T239 coming to you, ain't a thing you can do about it"
 
Last edited:
boomersooner2000 said:

I can't see Switch 2 matching Steam Deck performance if launched at $299 either, at least in handheld mode. DF believes T239 will be an 8nm node APU due to costs and available capacity
Click to expand...


This myth of 8nm being cheaper is getting kinda old and tired. 8nm node process is not cheaper compared to the amount of chips you can get with a 5m node process.
 
boomersooner2000 said:

I can't see Switch 2 matching Steam Deck performance if launched at $299 either, at least in handheld mode. DF believes T239 will be an 8nm node APU due to costs and available capacity
Click to expand...

This god forbidden 8NM will be the end of me. The only thing keeping me sane is Necrofilipe mentioning 4NM in his specs specification from his sources.
oppenheimer-cillian-murphy.gif
 
Hermii said:
We dont know what Nvidia would pay for either node. Samsung is highly incentivized to give a good deal.
Click to expand...

By the same logic, DF wouldn't know either. There is an article done by a publication that does analysis on semiconductor industry saying TSMC 4N is 2x more expensive compared to SEC8N, but 2.2x more denser.

In order for SEC8N to be worth it, they'd have to make it worth it over this cost & destiny benefit that TSMC 4N offered at the time the article was published, plus make it worth it for nvidia/Nintendo even though SEC8N is a dying node that would get tricker 7-8 years down the road, plus make it worth it despite SEC8N's rumored poor yields, plus make it worth it even though nvidia/Nintendo will have to contend with higher power draw & cooling requirements, plus some tradeoffs I'm probably forgetting here. I doubt Samsung will offer that good of a deal.
 
Steve said:
This god forbidden 8NM will be the end of me. The only thing keeping me sane is Necrofilipe mentioning 4NM in his specs specification from his sources.
oppenheimer-cillian-murphy.gif
Click to expand...
I missed or forgot when that happened. Not that I don't believe you but could you provide a source so I can read it?
 
Realistic
PokéPersona said:
I missed or forgot when that happened. Not that I don't believe you but could you provide a source so I can read it?
Click to expand...
Here's the original post which is written by him, also from his website.
universonintendo.com

Artigo Técnico – Quais configurações poderíamos ter no próximo hardware Nintendo?

Dá pra esperar por algo que vá além do que temos no Steam Deck, segundo insiders
universonintendo.com universonintendo.com

Meanwhile here's the english translation from reddit r/gamingleaksandrumor
 
darthdiablo said:
By the same logic, DF wouldn't know either. There is an article done by a publication that does analysis on semiconductor industry saying TSMC 4N is 2x more expensive compared to SEC8N, but 2.2x more denser.

In order for SEC8N to be worth it, they'd have to make it worth it over this cost & destiny benefit that TSMC 4N offered at the time the article was published, plus make it worth it for nvidia/Nintendo even though SEC8N is a dying node that would get tricker 7-8 years down the road, plus make it worth it despite SEC8N's rumored poor yields, plus make it worth it even though nvidia/Nintendo will have to contend with higher power draw & cooling requirements, plus some tradeoffs I'm probably forgetting here. I doubt Samsung will offer that good of a deal.
Click to expand...
For all we know, they would offer that good of a deal.

Imo the better argument against 8nm is the chip size doesn't seem to make sense, which this time around is entirely customised for Nintendos device.
 
boomersooner2000 said:

I can't see Switch 2 matching Steam Deck performance if launched at $299 either, at least in handheld mode.
Click to expand...

At this point the hardware is the hardware, so launching at $299 would just mean Nintendo choosing to burn money for some reason.
Terrell said:
All this name talk and all of you just skip over “Switch DX (Deluxe)” like it’s nothing.
Click to expand...
Back when we were still considering a mid-gen machine this was a favorite of mine, since they've used it on game remakes/rereleases for a long time but not hardware yet.
 
Look. All I know is Nintendo and NVIDIA made it happen on a 20nm, then on 16nm. And that was "off the shelf".

So surely they can easily make it happen again on an 8nm, and a customised one at that.

So like the Switch, they can start on 8nm, then move to 5nm a couple years later, no?
 
Giancarlo said:
market Switch sucessor in a way that make people think the console is another Switch model(basicaly how the anounced Wii U)
Click to expand...
The problem w/WiiU was that they could have marketed/announced it correctly and it still would have been an unviable product. Its issues run way deeper than people not knowing it was a new piece of hardware or the marketing or the games. Unless they do something on that level then I’m not sure how they’ll get people to think the next device is just another model especially if physically it is being altered. While big exclusive software will do most of the transference.
 
darthdiablo said:
By the same logic, DF wouldn't know either. There is an article done by a publication that does analysis on semiconductor industry saying TSMC 4N is 2x more expensive compared to SEC8N, but 2.2x more denser.

In order for SEC8N to be worth it, they'd have to make it worth it over this cost & destiny benefit that TSMC 4N offered at the time the article was published, plus make it worth it for nvidia/Nintendo even though SEC8N is a dying node that would get tricker 7-8 years down the road, plus make it worth it despite SEC8N's rumored poor yields, plus make it worth it even though nvidia/Nintendo will have to contend with higher power draw & cooling requirements, plus some tradeoffs I'm probably forgetting here. I doubt Samsung will offer that good of a deal.
Click to expand...
In fairness, DF was very clear that they are basing their assessment on rumors and the assumption that Nintendo would prioritize pricing over performance. Near the end of the segment, it was pointed out that it could be on a different node than the T234 due to the name change and the delay. Rich pointed out that there would be a slim chance of this due to Nintendo's typical approach, but concluded that this is not the same Nintendo as before, so we will have to wait and see.
 
Last edited:
TLZ said:
Look. All I know is Nintendo and NVIDIA made it happen on a 20nm, then on 16nm. And that was "off the shelf".

So surely they can easily make it happen again on an 8nm, and a customised one at that.

So like the Switch, they can start on 8nm, then move to 5nm a couple years later, no?
Click to expand...

That's been the discussion from the beginning that choosing 8nm would mean there is no path forward (without doing an expensive process of porting the IP over to Samsung's 5nm or 4nm).

Even if this were the scenario, what kind of confidence would Nvidia and Nintendo have in Samsung being able to meet their demands vs TSMC?
 
darthdiablo said:
By the same logic, DF wouldn't know either. There is an article done by a publication that does analysis on semiconductor industry saying TSMC 4N is 2x more expensive compared to SEC8N, but 2.2x more denser.

In order for SEC8N to be worth it, they'd have to make it worth it over this cost & destiny benefit that TSMC 4N offered at the time the article was published, plus make it worth it for nvidia/Nintendo even though SEC8N is a dying node that would get tricker 7-8 years down the road, plus make it worth it despite SEC8N's rumored poor yields, plus make it worth it even though nvidia/Nintendo will have to contend with higher power draw & cooling requirements, plus some tradeoffs I'm probably forgetting here. I doubt Samsung will offer that good of a deal.
Click to expand...

I think this is why when we bring up the cost of 8nm vs 4nm, it doesn't do the conversation much justice.
Since Nvidia are currently achieving almost 3x the density with Lovelace on TSMC 4N vs Ampere on SEC 8nm, (so in all theories the costs would be mitigated by sheer density and yield improvements alone).

If by chance T239 ends up on 8nm, it's because Samsung gave up their first and second born child to achieve this, but it won't be because the numbers worked out in their favor somehow.

So I agree with you and it would make more sense for Samsung to eat the cost in porting Ampere to their 4nm process, because that would do more for their foundry business in the long run. They could have Switch 2 business for upwards of 8 years of production, all of the other portable gaming devices are already using chips made on TSMC and none of us expect that to change anytime soon...
 
NineTailSage said:
That's been the discussion from the beginning that choosing 8nm would mean there is no path forward (without doing an expensive process of porting the IP over to Samsung's 5nm or 4nm).

Even if this were the scenario, what kind of confidence would Nvidia and Nintendo have in Samsung being able to meet their demands vs TSMC?
Click to expand...
could just be a better Samsung node.

No reason it has to be on the same node as any other chip due to the custom nature of the project and volumes that will be required over the years. I fully agree with the basic premise of T239 being appropriate for smaller processes but when it comes to the economics, yields etc it all seems highly speculative ie nobody here would know what sorts of deal could be struck.
 
HankyPanky said:
could just be a better Samsung node.

No reason it has to be on the same node as any other chip due to the custom nature of the project and volumes that will be required over many years.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't say "no reason", there are good reasons to chose a node Nvidia is already on.

But it's certainly a possibility.
 
Giancarlo said:
convince people they need a Switch sucessor, why do i need a Switch sucessor, when i already have my Switch that did everything this console do but better
Click to expand...
Offer backwards compatibility of Switch games and increased performance for one? The Switch isn't gonna be supported forever. It's aging hardware and people will move on when they stop releasing games and move to the successor when it's released. Nintendo will make new 1st party games on Switch successor that won't be on switch, with enhanced gameplay and visuals that won't be on Switch.
 
0
NineTailSage said:
That's been the discussion from the beginning that choosing 8nm would mean there is no path forward (without doing an expensive process of porting the IP over to Samsung's 5nm or 4nm).

Even if this were the scenario, what kind of confidence would Nvidia and Nintendo have in Samsung being able to meet their demands vs TSMC?
Click to expand...
I was also thinking it could be on Samsung's 4nm based on meeting demand from Nintendo and Nvidia. Honestly, I care more about the games than the type of node. PS4 + level hardware with a little Nintendo magic will make the games a joy to play on a portable.
 
TLZ said:
Look. All I know is Nintendo and NVIDIA made it happen on a 20nm, then on 16nm. And that was "off the shelf".

So surely they can easily make it happen again on an 8nm, and a customised one at that.

So like the Switch, they can start on 8nm, then move to 5nm a couple years later, no?
Click to expand...
From what I remember reading, unlike the 20 to 16nm jump, going from 8 to 5nm requires vastly different lithography methods which really over-complicates a die shrink and would require re-designing the chip on a whole new lithography method.
 
Nintendo better not get arrogant again with the Switch's successor, before someone might compete against them.

JoshuaJSlone said:
At this point the hardware is the hardware, so launching at $299 would just mean Nintendo choosing to burn money for some reason.
Click to expand...

Honestly for me the right price is $350,
not every console should cost more than the previous one.
 
darthdiablo said:
This myth of 8nm being cheaper is getting kinda old and tired. 8nm node process is not cheaper compared to the amount of chips you can get with a 5m node process.
Click to expand...
To play devil's advocate for 8nm.
Nvidia likely has a ton of 8nm nodes around already with the blueprints from Orion tegra on Samsung and the majority of ampere GPU processors, while the R&D for a smaller and custom process node--especially for a different foundry would cost a lot of money.

The only hope I have for TSMC is based on some ampere units using 7nm TSMC. But it's not Orion based
darthdiablo said:
By the same logic, DF wouldn't know either. There is an article done by a publication that does analysis on semiconductor industry saying TSMC 4N is 2x more expensive compared to SEC8N, but 2.2x more denser.

In order for SEC8N to be worth it, they'd have to make it worth it over this cost & destiny benefit that TSMC 4N offered at the time the article was published, plus make it worth it for nvidia/Nintendo even though SEC8N is a dying node that would get tricker 7-8 years down the road, plus make it worth it despite SEC8N's rumored poor yields, plus make it worth it even though nvidia/Nintendo will have to contend with higher power draw & cooling requirements, plus some tradeoffs I'm probably forgetting here. I doubt Samsung will offer that good of a deal.
Click to expand...
I brought this up before.. Samsung could have easily offered Nintendo even bigger discounts by supplying other parts for the Switch 2 like the screen, RAM, and internal storage to name a few.

I think it was Rich that brought it up in the DF video about 8nm samsung node bring used at launch and then a 4 or 5nm node for a revision a few years down the line. I believe he meant the same foundry (Samsung) as well. As much as I detest this, especially when it lowers the clockspeed/power of the console, it's plausible. While moving to a completely different foundry for a chip design based off Tegra Orion (and a competitor) is looking a little more implausible to me.

Nintendo could go either way in terms of process nodes and foundry,v from a cost perspective, I think going with Samsung makes more sense. If it's Samsung they chose, I hope it's 5nm at least at launch.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom