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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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ertaboy356b said:
There will always be stock issue in the first run. Believe me this always happens.
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And when it doesn't, it's always prefaced by it being a really weak sales performer.

Even with the doubling of Switch's first-month shipment to 6 million like I mentioned earlier, I would fully expect a sell-out, because launch demand is a difficult thing to sate without the risk of major over-saturation of stock, followed by weaker demand that requires a costly temporary wind-down of production/assembly.
 
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ertaboy356b said:
There will always be stock issue in the first run. Believe me this always happens.
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It is unavoidable. You can't have ten million units ready to go day one because supply chain capacity will not allow it. If for whatever reason the system doesn't take off immediately, Nintendo suddenly has a much bigger and more costly issue on their hands.

Nintendo can take steps to keep a steady flow of units coming in after launch, but any good console launch will end up with at least six months where the system is hard to find. (When I say hard, I mean you can't just walk into any random Walmart on a Wednesday afternoon and find it sitting on a shelf).
 
GamerJM said:
The Switch 1 is a good ballpark I imagine. It's not July right now, it's almost the end of August, and we don't have anything like a Eurogamer report yet afaik.
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My point was that the 2016 Eurogamer report and 2023 VGC report are very similar and happened at the exact same time in the year. Eurogamer made a big splash because they were able to confirm the news about the Switch's form factor as a novel concept in 2016; because that's going to be carried over to the successor, there's no equivalent to that top-line piece of info. But the actual substantive contents of the articles are more or less the same: hybrid console, uses cartridges, coming soon. If anything the current VGC article has somewhat more details about the hardware itself.

The one thing Eurogamer's 2016 articles had which current reporting doesn't have is confirmation of the SoC.* But the reason for that assuredly doesn't have anything to do with closeness to launch. Devs have the hardware as confirmed by VGC, and it's simply the case that none them of them have volunteered that information yet this time. Additionally, early NX documentation outright said the SoC was "equivalent to Tegra X1 from Nvidia" and further listed the GPU specs which of course matched exactly with the TX1, so it was very easy to conclusively report on that.

After the July 2016 reporting, there were no updates until the reveal in October, a factory leak in November, and Eurogamer's reporting on clock speeds in December. Now, obviously VGC and Eurogamer have reported "second half of 2024" and "late 2024" respectively, so if you just want to take that at face value, that's one thing. But I don't see anything about the timeline diverging from the original Switch's in terms of "chatter." If anything, all this Gamescom stuff is significantly more chatter than we saw for NX after July.

*Although they said they think there's a possibility the Tegra X1 was non-final because it's just in devkits with "audible fan noise," and the Tegra X2 might ultimately be used instead... Most of the speculation and non-factual parts of their articles were wrong.
 
Pokemaniac said:
It has been said that the conventional wisdom is that Nintendo targets the holidays, and that has seemingly been true historically, but with all the talk of stock concerns, I do wonder if that's something we can safely apply to their next hardware as well. Switch did pretty well with a March launch, and launching outside of their busy season would ostensibly help to spread out demand.
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I have to push back on this, pointing that Nintendo has released as many handhelds as consoles and their handhelds have always launched in Spring outside of the Nintendo DS, which was pushed out early to beat PSP to the market at Reggie's request.
 
Bonejack said:
max-lord-maxwell-lord.gif


Imagine we could've had a holiday 2023 launch.

I like shiny new tech in the winter months where i have enough reasons not to leave the house.
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Wish we had winter too, but alas it's only typhoons here. Can't leave the house because the place is flooded with rain water lmao.
 
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Skittzo said:
All the bird talk has me thinking it'll be something bird related

Nintendo Albatross
Nintendo Switch Finch
Nintendo Robin
Nintendo Toucan
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Nintendo Albatross seems like something that belongs in the toilet.... like the Nintendo Switch 🤣. Pretty viable name IMO.
 
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P4bl0 said:
Past Nintendo Hardware Release Dates:

GREEN = H1
RED = H2

Handheld

  • The Nintendo Game Boy was released in Japan on April 21, 1989, and in North America on July 31, 1989.
  • The Game Boy Color was released in Japan on October 21, 1998, and in North America on November 10, 1998.
  • The Game Boy Advance was released in Japan on June 21, 2001, and in North America on June 19, 2001.
  • The Nintendo DS was released in Japan on November 21, 2004, and in North America on November 26, 2004.
  • The Nintendo DS Lite was released in Japan on March 2, 2006, and in North America on March 11, 2006.
  • The Nintendo 3DS was released in Japan on February 26, 2011, and in North America on March 27, 2011.

Home

  • The Nintendo Wii was released on November 19, 2006.
  • The Nintendo Wii U was released on November 18, 2012.
  • The Nintendo GameCube was released on November 18, 2001.
  • The Nintendo 64 was released on June 23, 1996.
  • The Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) was released on August 21, 1991.
  • The Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) was released on October 18, 1985.

Hybrid

The Nintendo Switch was released in March 2017.

Which color will be the NX2 ? Place your bets

H1 6/14
H2 7/14

file.jpg
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The most fun I had in a mario game is this:
 
squinters said:
I've actually come around to it. Obv still hope we get a 1080p OLED at launch. But at least in this way the system for the next 7-8 years will have 1080p screen as it's base specs. They can easily (and probably will) add an OLED model in a few years. But I doubt they would ever bump the handheld resolution
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I've said this many times.. I wouldn't mind a 720p screen, but I'm not going to lie, I'd be pretty disappointed if we didn't get 1080p

Reasons for 1080p screen
-it's the natural evolution of every generation to increase screen resolution. A jump from switch to switch 2 should justify it.
-it won't feel outdated and cheap compared to other handheld gaming devices
-4nm TSMC should be fine for its battery life. It should at least match OG Switch in the worst-case scenario. Nintendo wouldn't go below that.
-Switch remasters/ports on Switch 2 will be 1080p on it without too much trouble. It's plenty capable. PS4 ports should be able to 1080p on it as well (if optimized correctly), with 900p in the worst-case scenario, and optimize other areas like framerate and graphical detail+textures

Reasons against the 1080p screen and for 720p screen
-helps with battery life
-helps with X series and PS5 ports.

We also have DLSS to help with resolution.
 
Z0m3le said:
I have to push back on this, pointing that Nintendo has released as many handhelds as consoles and their handhelds have always launched in Spring outside of the Nintendo DS, which was pushed out early to beat PSP to the market at Reggie's request.
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Basically all their spring launches have at least some evidence of a delay. The 3DS really could have been used to be delayed further, but I doubt they could afford that.
 
YolkFolk said:
I think hardware launches have overshadowed, at least somewhat, games from prior generations, although not necessarily involving the same companies. Some late N64 releases didn't hit quite as hard when the Dreamcast and the shadow of the PS2 were looming for example. I guess you could also argue that something like 'Metroid: Samus Returns' was overshadowed by the Switch, but the Switch had already been released.

Something like 'The Last of Us' is a great example of a game not being overshadowed by new hardware however. This game was released 6 months or so before the PS4 was due to be released and when hype was really building for that new piece of hardware. The game then came out to great reviews and sales and served as a fantastic send off for the Playstation 3.
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Thraktor said:
I don't think there's any evidence that software sales are affected by hardware announcements, as @YolkFolk mentioned The Last of Us is a good counter-example. In fact both The Last of Us and The Last Of Us 2 released around a week after Sony's major showcase of next-gen hardware, and both sold very well.

There's more evidence that hardware sales are affected by announcements, but it's difficult to say definitively, because at that point of a console's life you would expect sales to decline anyway. In Nintendo's case at the moment a lot of hardware sales are the OLED model, which might indicate a large number of people upgrading from the original Switch. I don't think people who are looking to buy a Switch for the first time in 2023 would be particularly likely to hold off to buy a Switch 2 on day one in 2024 instead, but I would imagine at least some of those who are upgrading to the OLED model would hold off for the Switch 2 if they knew it was coming. I could certainly see that having an impact on hardware sales.

At the same time, the existence of a new Switch could have the same effect even without an official announcement if details are leaked and widely reported. If the full details and launch window of Switch 2 get leaked and published on every gaming and tech site on the internet, then those enthusiasts who were going to upgrade to an OLED model may still hold off. In that case, there's an argument that Nintendo may want to just make it official and control the narrative.
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Zemya said:
FF9 got overshadowed by PS2 and FF10.

I think? It certainly feel like that from the sales numbers and from the discourse back then
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Thank you all three for the response, it offers a better perspective on it since the game I had in mind was Mario Wonder and if that would even be overshadowed if Nintendo decided to announce a new platform around the launch of the game.

It seems like it’s mixed.
Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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I’m going to be contrarian on purpose and say I don’t believe this and holiday 2024 it is :p

Let the chaos ensue 🤭
 
0
Seems like something Smash-related is coming:
(Another example of Fami -> Internet -> Fami).



famiboards.com

Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST6| It’s Prime Time For Some More Wonderful Speculation!

But for real I think a new Star Fox will come in the launch window for Switch 2. I’m hoping they can get it out in the first year. I want that maximum hype for it with a release of a new system. I want it at the switch 2 reveal. Right there with you. I was curious and looked at the total...
famiboards.com famiboards.com

I would bet this strategically ties into next-gen.
-"Since we're back patching the game, why not add new stuff"?
I don't think we'll see another Smash this decade, not something this "Ultimate", so reviving the franchise when NX2 is on the horizon kinda makes sense.

I think Nintendo saw incredible engagement with their Smash waves of announcements, even from people who would barely play the game.
I'm surprised they didn't try to replicate it with other games (maybe they did with MK8 but missed the mark).
 
If FamiDA doesn't work, i offer to volunteer for BoNDAjack.

I offer various tiers of how secret i'm going to keep things you tell me, with the highest tier being "I'll take it into the grave with me."
It's the best seller, too!

;]

chocolate_supra said:
1500, huh?
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You could think there's demand for a new Nintendo console, huh?

NateDrake said:
Delightful.
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necrolipe said:
Impressive also fits
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bobs-burgers-love-you-terribly-brand-a.jpg


GPKs3 said:
Many Bothans died to bring me this information.

8-bit%20Pixel%20Blocks%20-%20Black%2C%20Grey%2C%20White.jpg
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KPgzfpQ.jpeg
 
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I hope that closed doors presentation had a big amount of developers so it'll be easier some to spill the beans soon... Probably Nintendo did it separately so they don't know the actual amount of people/developers knowing the news, discouraging breaking the NDA.
 
eye0h said:
You think?
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maybe, without E3, where Nintendo could show it next hardware, the only game coventions left for Nintendo to show it next hardware is Gamescom e Tokyo Game Show, i recall in 2015, theres a rumor Nintendo showed a prototype of Nintendo Switch in E3 2015, at closed doors for closer third party
 
I'm guessing handheld will be more similar to a PS4 that is about 3 years old with heavy use, but with the stock thermal paste replaced with a high end premium paste. And of course docked performance will be that of a PS4Pro that is just a year old, but the thermal paste is still stock, and it has been in a smokers house for half of that year.

Just to ballpark it.
 
OniLgnd said:
I'm guessing handheld will be more similar to a PS4 that is about 3 years old with heavy use, but with the stock thermal paste replaced with a high end premium paste. And of course docked performance will be that of a PS4Pro that is just a year old, but the thermal paste is still stock, and it has been in a smokers house for half of that year.

Just to ballpark it.
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what the frick
 
OniLgnd said:
I'm guessing handheld will be more similar to a PS4 that is about 3 years old with heavy use, but with the stock thermal paste replaced with a high end premium paste. And of course docked performance will be that of a PS4Pro that is just a year old, but the thermal paste is still stock, and it has been in a smokers house for half of that year.

Just to ballpark it.
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PS4 always has 1,84 TFLops when running. Thermal paste has no effect on performance.
 
Giancarlo said:
maybe, without E3, where Nintendo could show it next hardware, the only game coventions left for Nintendo to show it next hardware is Gamescom e Tokyo Game Show, i recall in 2015, theres a rumor Nintendo showed a prototype of Nintendo Switch in E3 2015, at closed doors for closer third party
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They don't need an event for an announcment those times are over
 
Z0m3le said:
I have to push back on this, pointing that Nintendo has released as many handhelds as consoles and their handhelds have always launched in Spring outside of the Nintendo DS, which was pushed out early to beat PSP to the market at Reggie's request.
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also gave us this legendary moment back in e3 2005

 
Giancarlo said:
is not a anouncement, is Nintendo showing it next hardware for it closer third parties, you cant do it digialy can we do this?
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Normally, they would invite key partners (devs/pubs) to their HQs or visit them at their HQs for something like this.
 
Giancarlo said:
is not a anouncement, is Nintendo showing it next hardware for it closer third parties, you cant do it digialy can we do this?
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I think they could do it with a rep and just send them out with powerpoints but this is a more powerful move, to pitch in the room.
 
0
They should’ve had Charles Martinet showing off new systems to devs all these years in his Mario voice. Imagine how adorable that would be.

I’m joking btw
 
I hope Nintendo uses Marzipan as thermal paste so when the console warms up you get a waft of that almond sugary goodness.

Also I can play Baten Kaitos on my Nintendo Batenburg, complete with pink and yellow cake con's.
 
OniLgnd said:
I'm guessing handheld will be more similar to a PS4 that is about 3 years old with heavy use, but with the stock thermal paste replaced with a high end premium paste. And of course docked performance will be that of a PS4Pro that is just a year old, but the thermal paste is still stock, and it has been in a smokers house for half of that year.

Just to ballpark it.
Click to expand...
sensiblechuckle.gif
 
OniLgnd said:
I'm guessing handheld will be more similar to a PS4 that is about 3 years old with heavy use, but with the stock thermal paste replaced with a high end premium paste. And of course docked performance will be that of a PS4Pro that is just a year old, but the thermal paste is still stock, and it has been in a smokers house for half of that year.

Just to ballpark it.
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Paste. 😂
ralph-wiggum.gif
 
ReyVGM said:
160x144 = Game Boy/Game Boy Color
240x160 = Game Boy Advance
256x192 = Nintendo DS
400×240 = Nintendo 3DS
1280×720 = Nintendo Switch
???? = Nintendo Switch 2

Every next gen Nintendo portable has seen a boost in screen resolution. Are we really expecting the screen in the next Switch to be the same resolution as its predecessor?
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maybe, battery will be main concern/focus if Nintendo can do a 2160×1080 display
 
ShaunSwitch said:
I hope Nintendo uses Marzipan as thermal paste so when the console warms up you get a waft of that almond sugary goodness.

Also I can play Baten Kaitos on my Nintendo Batenburg, complete with pink and yellow cake con's.
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Partner with Yeston to create the Sakura Switch. The back emblazoned with the lead character of Nintendo’s newest IP (a waifu game of course). When played, perfume, carefully crafted for you to understand what this waifu smells like, wafts out of the cooling fan
 
Terrell said:
So to the production question, we know they had to do an emergency increase in production for Switch after its first month to meet demand (even doing air freight shipping for the first few months to get them across the ocean faster), and they sold 2.74 million units in March 2017. Based on that, we can estimate how many consoles were produced for launch at ~3 million and use that to estimate how many were produced per month depending on when production began.

3 months - 1 mil (~33K per day)
4 months - 750K (25K per day)
5 months - 600K (20K per day)
6 months - 500K (~17K per day)
7 months - 428.5K (~14K per day)
8 months - 375K (12.5K per day)
9 months - 333.3K (11.11K per day)

We know Nintendo only expected to sell 2 million in its first month, so demand outstripped their production capacity and reduced excess inventory meant to stopgap between ocean freight deliveries and such. We also need to account for the fact that it is cheaper to open new production and assembly lines than to reduce them (because you’re paying to keep lines open and available while production declines, as we saw with Wii U), so whatever the monthly production rate is would need to be the bare minimum they anticipate selling per month on average across a year, give or take.

So based on that, let’s say they want to double their initial Switch production volume and go for 6 million shipped for the first month of launch and 20-24 million units in the first year of availability (in which time Switch sold over 17 million units, for reference). To produce 14-18 million units across the remaining 11 months post-launch, you’d need a 1.27-1.64 million production volume per month, or around 42-55K per day.
That means, to meet 6 million shipped for launch, they would only need a little over 3-4 months to produce that volume. So if assembly begins in November, a March launch is entirely doable.

We know that T239 was full production ready no later than July, so even if we account for part production needing to start ahead of the assembly line, a 9-month lead time would mean one of the slowest production ramp-ups I’ve ever heard of, or a stockpile of close to 16-18 million units.
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So for those who read this post, just wanted to do a single follow-up for a point that I didn't originally include.

In case you didn't do the math, that 3-4 months I suggested for the new hardware ramp-up to 6 million? It aligns pretty closely with Nintendo's original sales expectations for Switch and how long it would take to shore up that number from their monthly average sell-through based on expectations.

On top of the 2 million they projected to sell in the launch month, they projected 10 million for the fiscal year starting April 1 2017. So if you take 10 million post-launch year's worth of stock, they were gearing up to assemble 833K units per month. And this was after the surge of launch sales that got them to consider increased production, so it's likely that we're looking at Switch launch inventory being shored up in a similar 3-4 month window using that 833K/month number, likely closer to 4 months in this case.

3-4 months being the statistically-likely time spent shoring up launch stock based on real-world sales projections that matched up seamlessly to my theorized projections for new hardware is a pretty strange coincidence, but I'd need to see more historical figures for other popular Nintendo devices like Wii or DS to get a better sense of whether this is a reliable-ish pattern. Because, again, 9 months leading up to new hardware sounds absurd from a logistics standpoint.
 
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ReyVGM said:
160x144 = Game Boy/Game Boy Color
240x160 = Game Boy Advance
256x192 = Nintendo DS
400×240 = Nintendo 3DS
1280×720 = Nintendo Switch
???? = Nintendo Switch 2

Every next gen Nintendo portable has seen a boost in screen resolution. Are we really expecting the screen in the next Switch to be the same resolution as its predecessor?
Click to expand...
No. 7.91 inch 1080p LCD screen is what been rumored
 
ReyVGM said:
160x144 = Game Boy/Game Boy Color
240x160 = Game Boy Advance
256x192 = Nintendo DS
400×240 = Nintendo 3DS
1280×720 = Nintendo Switch
???? = Nintendo Switch 2

Every next gen Nintendo portable has seen a boost in screen resolution. Are we really expecting the screen in the next Switch to be the same resolution as its predecessor?
Click to expand...
There is a point when increasing resolution in a portable doesn't make sense and we're dealing with diminishing returns, while paying performance and battery life price for them. And increasing resolution from 720p on 7-8 inch screen is exactly that situation.
 
Atlus said:
I find it CRAZY that anyone would think Nintendo would reveal info on their Next Gen console on anything other than their own platform. Nintendo is all about control, and the want to be able to control how the messaging gets across and is delivered to their audience. I suspect similar reveal to Nintendo Switch. An Announcement on Twitter saying to stay tuned for a Nintendo Presentation. A Trailer released showing the console and a bit of what makes it unique. Then a followup presentation social media blowout that showcases a bunch of games and offers details on the console and release dates.
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i expect a Nintendo Direct focused on Nintendo Switch sucessor, followed by a Treehouse Live, showing the console and it launch games
 
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ReyVGM said:
160x144 = Game Boy/Game Boy Color
240x160 = Game Boy Advance
256x192 = Nintendo DS
400×240 = Nintendo 3DS
1280×720 = Nintendo Switch
???? = Nintendo Switch 2

Every next gen Nintendo portable has seen a boost in screen resolution. Are we really expecting the screen in the next Switch to be the same resolution as its predecessor?
Click to expand...

1920x1080 for tempered optimism
2560x1440 for unleashed optimism

1280x720 for pessimists and skinflints who hate to dream on Nintendo's behalf with the excuse of cost cutting measures realistic minded individuals
 
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