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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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OK LISTEN TO ME CAREFULLY. I want 3 leaks on Nintendo no matter what it is (software or hardware) otherwise I will get angry 😡😡

Thx!
 
GigaUltraMoon said:
Early indications from the (alleged) Switch 2 showcase at Gamescom is that it's (allegedly) exceeding expectations, although insiders are waiting either to see who breaks the NDA first, or until more private presentation events happen and manufacturing starts, before spilling what they know - greatly dilutes the risk involved in publicising Nintendo's (alleged) private showcases
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Great news!
But what was expectations again?
PS4Pro?
 
P4bl0 said:
Past Nintendo Hardware Release Dates:

GREEN = H1
RED = H2

Handheld

  • The Nintendo Game Boy was released in Japan on April 21, 1989, and in North America on July 31, 1989.
  • The Game Boy Color was released in Japan on October 21, 1998, and in North America on November 10, 1998.
  • The Game Boy Advance was released in Japan on June 21, 2001, and in North America on June 19, 2001.
  • The Nintendo DS was released in Japan on November 21, 2004, and in North America on November 26, 2004.
  • The Nintendo DS Lite was released in Japan on March 2, 2006, and in North America on March 11, 2006.
  • The Nintendo 3DS was released in Japan on February 26, 2011, and in North America on March 27, 2011.

Home

  • The Nintendo Wii was released on November 19, 2006.
  • The Nintendo Wii U was released on November 18, 2012.
  • The Nintendo GameCube was released on November 18, 2001.
  • The Nintendo 64 was released on June 23, 1996.
  • The Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) was released on August 21, 1991.
  • The Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) was released on October 18, 1985.

Hybrid

The Nintendo Switch was released in March 2017.

Which color will be the NX2 ? Place your bets

H1 6/14
H2 7/14

file.jpg
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Greener than Yoshi's nose!
 
FernandoRocker said:
I would honestly prefer a 720p OLED screen over a 1080p LCD one.

I dislike the gray uniformity and imperfect blacks more than lower resolution.

Heck, a 720p OLED screen would be less taxing for the system, increasing the battery life and frame rate. Just add VRR/120Hz and HDR to the current Switch OLED screen and that's it.
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I have access to a high quality LCD 1600p screen on my GPD Win Max 2 and I prefer the 720p OLED screen of SWOLED over it. I even paid $450 extra for OLED AR Glasses and now they have replaced my Curved HDR 165Hz HDR Gsync VR monitor for several games. The difference is literally night and day for obscure games like Plague Tale and Resident Evil. I'm currently playing through Plague Tale Requiem on my desktop with the glasses.

However, If I still can use my Rokid Max with the new switch then I'm covered with whatever Nintendo goes with :p .
 
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I'm starting to be Team H2 but only because we haven't heard quite enough chatter as I'd expect for H1. It doesn't matter much though, we're sort of closing in on the endgame of the range of time I'd expect for a H1 announcement. I don't expect a January reveal -> H1 release, though I suppose anything is possible.
 
Quoted by: LiC
1
P4bl0 said:
Past Nintendo Hardware Release Dates:

GREEN = H1
RED = H2

Handheld

  • The Nintendo Game Boy was released in Japan on April 21, 1989, and in North America on July 31, 1989.
  • The Game Boy Color was released in Japan on October 21, 1998, and in North America on November 10, 1998.
  • The Game Boy Advance was released in Japan on June 21, 2001, and in North America on June 19, 2001.
  • The Nintendo DS was released in Japan on November 21, 2004, and in North America on November 26, 2004.
  • The Nintendo DS Lite was released in Japan on March 2, 2006, and in North America on March 11, 2006.
  • The Nintendo 3DS was released in Japan on February 26, 2011, and in North America on March 27, 2011.

Home

  • The Nintendo Wii was released on November 19, 2006.
  • The Nintendo Wii U was released on November 18, 2012.
  • The Nintendo GameCube was released on November 18, 2001.
  • The Nintendo 64 was released on June 23, 1996.
  • The Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) was released on August 21, 1991.
  • The Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) was released on October 18, 1985.

Hybrid

The Nintendo Switch was released in March 2017.

Which color will be the NX2 ? Place your bets

H1 6/14
H2 7/14

file.jpg
Click to expand...
God Damnit, I just realized who I was replying to!!!!
 
Are people just quoting old pablo crap or is he back to posting his usual bullshit again?

Not even by ignoring him I can escape his inane stuff.
 
GPKs3 said:
I think PS4 undocked and PS4 Pro docked
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I would HEAVILY learn towards PS4 undocked and PS4 Pro docked... BEFORE DLSS.

Also remember that in raw grunt, a Series S and PS4 have the same number of teraflops.

So consider a Series S with DLSS.

Cut it in half and slap a battery on it for handheld.
 
I still believe it is unrealistic to expect Series S level of brute strength, but developers might have easier time if the Switch 2 has 12GB or more of RAM.
 
Onizuka said:
I see that many pages flew by. I've been reading but I can't guess what happened, is there new information? Precise things?
Do we have data on the hardware, possible games, release date, reveal?
What has happened so that everything is advancing at the speed of light? Thank you.
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Also as @fwd-bwd pointed out TechInsights is reporting a March/April 2024 release

The original TechInsights report is locked in under a subscription service and aimed at a very tech/industry targeted audience
Edit: The full report actually costs $3200

Nintendo continues to lead the console hardware market with a 40% market share in 2022 , although this is down from 45% in 2021 . With the support of PS5 , Sony 's market share in 2022 will reach 38 % . Nintendo was able to maintain its leading position due to the huge success of its Switch OLED ( launched in October 2021 ) between Q4 2021 and Q1 2023 , with global shipments reaching 15 million units.

At the same time, Nintendo's global market share will drop significantly to 28% this year , and it will give up its first position to Sony. This trend will reverse in 2024 , with the next-generation Switch 2 expected to be released in March or April next year .

TechInsights predicts that the release of new models will push Nintendo's global market share back to nearly40% . However, this wasn't enough to knock Sony off the number one spot.
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mp.weixin.qq.com

全球游戏机出货量将在2023年达到历史新高

TechInsights指出，由于供应链的限制和宏观经济的不确定性，索尼游戏机出货量在2022年下降了4.7
mp.weixin.qq.com mp.weixin.qq.com

It's interesting that western publishers (with dev sources) are leaning towards H2 while asian publishers (with manufacturers sources) are leaning towards H1
 
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GamerJM said:
I'm starting to be Team H2 but only because we haven't heard quite enough chatter as I'd expect for H1. It doesn't matter much though, we're sort of closing in on the endgame of the range of time I'd expect for a H1 announcement. I don't expect a January reveal -> H1 release, though I suppose anything is possible.
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What's your yardstick for "enough chatter?" The most obvious historical comparison, the Switch itself, had pretty much the entirety of its chatter start in July 2016, with a report by Eurogamer coming out on the the same day as this year's VGC report. Then it got its reveal about three months later and its release 4-5 months after that.
 
Hmmm… Late 2024 still feels right. I fully expect a Direct to happen in the next month. In that Direct, I suspect we’ll get announcements of new games releasing up to Spring/April next year. Wave 6 for Mario Kart 8, and possibly Tears DLC, to drop on Game Awards Night when they get GOTY (One hopes…). I also suspect we’ll get the first look at Metroid Prime 4 in this Direct - It’s not getting released with new hardware or any visual enhancements. It will be a full-cream Switch title because nobody’s buying new hardware for first-person Metroid, and they’ll want to try and sell the series to as large a userbase as possible.

Some people will continue to complain “New Hardware When?” - Another Direct will follow in February 2024. There, we’ll get release dates for games coming until the Autumn. The same complaints will follow. A console announcement will likely happen in the Spring, independent of a Direct, and games for it will be the focus (no pun intended) of the Summer Direct and events.

Cross-Gen won’t be that long, IMO. I believe they’ll aim high - The Switch’s success has showed that they can sell 20m units a year, and supply constraints or gradual tailing off have still resulted in 15-20m. To that end, I feel they’ll want people to adopt the new system rather quickly, and have the confidence to continue the prolific software momentum required to achieve that. I also believe their partners will be eager to leave the current system behind as soon as they can, with the exception of a Just Dance, for example, and some releases from the Indie Circuit.

Skyrim Remastered was the main Western-based third-party AAA title showed at the reveal. If I was a betting person, my money would be on Cyberpunk 2077, Elden Ring, or Red Dead Redemption 2 for that title at the new hardware reveal. Leaning more towards Cyberpunk 2077. 💕✨
 
Angel Whispers said:
Hmmm… Late 2024 still feels right. I fully expect a Direct to happen in the next month. In that Direct, I suspect we’ll get announcements of new games releasing up to Spring/April next year. Wave 6 for Mario Kart 8, and possibly Tears DLC, to drop on Game Awards Night when they get GOTY (One hopes…). I also suspect we’ll get the first look at Metroid Prime 4 in this Direct - It’s not getting released with new hardware or any visual enhancements. It will be a full-cream Switch title because nobody’s buying new hardware for first-person Metroid, and they’ll want to try and sell the series to as large a userbase as possible.

Some people will continue to complain “New Hardware When?” - Another Direct will follow in February 2024. There, we’ll get release dates for games coming until the Autumn. The same complaints will follow. A console announcement will likely happen in the Spring, independent of a Direct, and games for it will be the focus (no pun intended) of the Summer Direct and events.

Cross-Gen won’t be that long, IMO. I believe they’ll aim high - The Switch’s success has showed that they can sell 20m units a year, and supply constraints or gradual tailing off have still resulted in 15-20m. To that end, I feel they’ll want people to adopt the new system rather quickly, and have the confidence to continue the prolific software momentum required to achieve that. I also believe their partners will be eager to leave the current system behind as soon as they can, with the exception of a Just Dance, for example, and some releases from the Indie Circuit.

Skyrim Remastered was the main Western-based third-party AAA title showed at the reveal. If I was a betting person, my money would be on Cyberpunk 2077, Elden Ring, or Red Dead Redemption 2 for that title at the new hardware reveal. Leaning more towards Cyberpunk 2077. 💕✨
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I feel exactly the same. Another Direct in september with a focus on holiday 2023 / early 2024 (Peach game, LM2 remaster and maybe new remasters ?), another last Direct early next year, then a reveal for the Switch 2 in may or june. For a release late 2024 with a new 3D Mario and a AAA Skyrim-bis (Cyberpunk 2077 could be amazing, I think). I would kill for GTA6 on Switch 2, even if it's not day-one. It would be amazing for a Nintendo console to get a main GTA game gain.
 
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0
P4bl0 said:
Past Nintendo Hardware Release Dates:

GREEN = H1
RED = H2

Handheld

  • The Nintendo Game Boy was released in Japan on April 21, 1989, and in North America on July 31, 1989.
  • The Game Boy Color was released in Japan on October 21, 1998, and in North America on November 10, 1998.
  • The Game Boy Advance was released in Japan on June 21, 2001, and in North America on June 19, 2001.
  • The Nintendo DS was released in Japan on November 21, 2004, and in North America on November 26, 2004.
  • The Nintendo DS Lite was released in Japan on March 2, 2006, and in North America on March 11, 2006.
  • The Nintendo 3DS was released in Japan on February 26, 2011, and in North America on March 27, 2011.

Home

  • The Nintendo Wii was released on November 19, 2006.
  • The Nintendo Wii U was released on November 18, 2012.
  • The Nintendo GameCube was released on November 18, 2001.
  • The Nintendo 64 was released on June 23, 1996.
  • The Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) was released on August 21, 1991.
  • The Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) was released on October 18, 1985.

Hybrid

The Nintendo Switch was released in March 2017.

Which color will be the NX2 ? Place your bets

H1 6/14
H2 7/14

file.jpg
Click to expand...
May sounds good to me, because it‘s not featured here.
 
Johnson said:
I just hope impressive hardware translates to impressive software support.
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If the Switch 2 is everything we think it will be
12 years after the Wii U, Nintendo games will make a huge leap forward graphically and technologically, which will undoubtedly lead to a flood of impressive software.
There are some people who say that Nintendo doesn't need more hardware power, but they're wrong.
Better hardware doesn't just improve game graphics, it allows Nintendo games like botw that would never have been technically possible on the Wii, and it improves games like Animal Crossing, which seriously degrades performance with more objects. It would also improve the multiplayer experience of some Nintendo games that still have terrible multiplayer.
 
zdfg454 said:
If the Switch 2 is anything to go by
12 years after the Wii U, Nintendo games will make a huge leap forward graphically and technologically, which will undoubtedly lead to a flood of impressive software.
There are some who say Nintendo doesn't need a hardware boost, but they're wrong.
Better hardware doesn't just improve game graphics, it allows Nintendo games like botw that would never have been technically possible on the Wii, and it improves games like Animal Crossing, which seriously degrades performance with more objects. It would also improve the multiplayer experience of some Nintendo games that still have terrible multiplayer.
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Sure, but in the context of Gamescom, I meant I hope it translates into impressive 3rd party support.
 
Johnson said:
Sure, but in the context of Gamescom, I meant I hope it translates into impressive 3rd party support.
Click to expand...
I think what Nintendo needs most is attractive hardware and a large number of quality, first-party games.
If those two are good, a Nintendo game console can't fail in the market, and that leads to 3rd party support.
With the information we have so far, it looks like the Switch 2 has the potential to be a more compelling piece of hardware than the Switch. My only concern is that the wellspring of quality, affordable first-party games that was the Wii U has now dried up.
Well, what do I know, Nintendo knows, so they'll do fine.
 
So to the production question, we know they had to do an emergency increase in production for Switch after its first month to meet demand (even doing air freight shipping for the first few months to get them across the ocean faster), and they sold 2.74 million units in March 2017. Based on that, we can estimate how many consoles were produced for launch at ~3 million and use that to estimate how many were produced per month depending on when production began.

3 months - 1 mil (~33K per day)
4 months - 750K (25K per day)
5 months - 600K (20K per day)
6 months - 500K (~17K per day)
7 months - 428.5K (~14K per day)
8 months - 375K (12.5K per day)
9 months - 333.3K (11.11K per day)

We know Nintendo only expected to sell 2 million in its first month, so demand outstripped their production capacity and reduced excess inventory meant to stopgap between ocean freight deliveries and such. We also need to account for the fact that it is cheaper to open new production and assembly lines than to reduce them (because you’re paying to keep lines open and available while production declines, as we saw with Wii U), so whatever the monthly production rate is would need to be the bare minimum they anticipate selling per month on average across a year, give or take.

So based on that, let’s say they want to double their initial Switch production volume and go for 6 million shipped for the first month of launch and 20-24 million units in the first year of availability (in which time Switch sold over 17 million units, for reference). To produce 14-18 million units across the remaining 11 months post-launch, you’d need a 1.27-1.64 million production volume per month, or around 42-55K per day.
That means, to meet 6 million shipped for launch, they would only need a little over 3-4 months to produce that volume. So if assembly begins in November, a March launch is entirely doable.

We know that T239 was full production ready no later than July, so even if we account for part production needing to start ahead of the assembly line, a 9-month lead time would mean one of the slowest production ramp-ups I’ve ever heard of, or a stockpile of close to 16-18 million units.
 
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LiC said:
What's your yardstick for "enough chatter?" The most obvious historical comparison, the Switch itself, had pretty much the entirety of its chatter start in July 2016, with a report by Eurogamer coming out on the the same day as this year's VGC report. Then it got its reveal about three months later and its release 4-5 months after that.
Click to expand...

The Switch 1 is a good ballpark I imagine. It's not July right now, it's almost the end of August, and we don't have anything like a Eurogamer report yet afaik.
 
zdfg454 said:
I think what Nintendo needs most is attractive hardware and a large number of quality, first-party games.
If those two are good, a Nintendo game console can't fail in the market, and that leads to 3rd party support.
With the information we have so far, it looks like the Switch 2 has the potential to be a more compelling piece of hardware than the Switch. My only concern is that the wellspring of quality, affordable first-party games that was the Wii U has now dried up.
Well, what do I know, Nintendo knows, so they'll do fine.
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Nintendo's biggest boon is their willingness to fund mid-budget titles, something Sony doesn't do anymore and MS still can't do despite their studio count. I'm not too worried about their output now that Wii U games dried up. they can also augment their output by allowing NoA and NoE to pick up western studio titles to publish under Nintendo. some could even grow into bigger IPs for them
 
PedroNavajas said:
I have access to a high quality LCD 1600p screen on my GPD Win Max 2 and I prefer the 720p OLED screen of SWOLED over it.
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Just looking at specs, but the LCD on the GPD Win Max 2 has basically the same max brightness and pixel density as the Switch OLED. So I'm not surprised you'd prefer the OLED screen, other than sheer size, the LCD doesn't have any advantages.

A 1080p 8 inch screen has like 30% higher pixel density, and while it will never have OLED blacks, if it's HDR it could absolutely have as good or better color gamut. Which is not to say you might not still prefer the OLED (I think I would, too) but it would at least have something to offer.

LiC said:
Late, but I can't believe nobody posted this:

output.gif
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I wish I could Everybody What this over and over again
 
Wonder if the Mario OLED will have a Pro Controller as well. They’ve been scarse over here in Puerto Rico, and Walmart seems to not have any backlogs at all
 
0
oldpuck said:
Short version: nothing.

Medium version:

Something Switch 2 was at Gamescom, but there is no reliable public info of what exactly. The details have been game-of-telephoned quite a bit, so a lot of the last dozen pages have been speculation and misinformation management.

A "Mario Red" Special Edition OLED model has been reliably leaked. When the Mario Wonder direct was announced, even a dummy like me could guess a special edition was coming with.

Lots of folks trying to guess rollout schedule from these two data points.

Some vague hints are being interpreted as saying that whatever was at Gamescom is impressive.
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thanks man!
 
MadMarvainy said:
I recently watched this piece The Gaming Historian did on him all those years ago for the first time.

The damn video had me teary-eyed towards the end.

Legend.
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Relatable. I'm not usually a person who gets emotional over a famous person who passed away, but I did after watching the documentary a couple of years ago. Iwata-san was on a whole different level. Calm, compasionate, funny, sound business man, and an amazing programmer.
 
0
LoneRanger said:
One thing is true (and was said by Emily IIRC) is that Nintendo probably wants to avoid any stock issues that they did have with Switch 1 launch or Sony had with PS5 first years.

Considering Switch 1 massive success and they are probably preparing a good launch lineup with 3D Mario + third party stuff like COD or FIFA, they want to have as maximum stock as possible. They can easily aim to shipped +10 millions in FY2024/25 Q3 (october-december when Switch NG is likely to be released)

In addition, I also imagine Nintendo wants a constant flew of Switch NG exclusive titles from them and third party publishers to not have any software drought and motivate people to make the jump asap. Thats why they are already showing the HW +1 year before its launch so third party publishers can start preparing their software for initial Switch NG presentation (likely mid 2024)
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There will always be stock issue in the first run. Believe me this always happens.
 
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