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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Skittzo said:
Huh? What does one thing have to do with the other?

Nintendo Live is not really a big event, it's basically just a place where people can play existing released games and participate in tournaments and such. They don't do announcements or anything there.
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Well I definitely wouldn’t say it’s not a big event especially in JP if they have Splatoon concerts.
 
Derachi said:
πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€
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Skittzo said:
All the bird talk has me thinking it'll be something bird related

Nintendo Albatross
Nintendo Switch Finch
Nintendo Robin
Nintendo Toucan
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So this made me lookup a list of Cool Bird Names, which categorizes names for birds with a, and I quote, tough, badass personalities

https://www.thedodo.com/dodowell/bird-names

So, ladies and gentlemen, introducing the Nintendo Rocky, because this bad boy has been on the training grind for too damn long.
 
Regarding the β€œproduction” timeline, I think that we should separate the production of parts and the assembly of product, the latter being more salient to our speculation of NG release window.

Production of parts:
  • According to this Chinese IPO document, the OLED model’s joy-con rails entered volume production 6 months before the product release (04/2021 to 10/2021).
  • According to this Bloomberg report, the OLED panel enter production 4 months before the product release (06/2021 to 10/2021).
Assembly of product:
  • According to the same Bloomberg report, the assembly of the OLED model began 3 months before the release (07/2021 to 10/2021).
  • The start date of assembly for the OG Switch is murkier.
    • MoneyDJ reported that Foxconn Technology’s business would improve in H2 2016 due to β€œNX” assembly. However, it was framed as an estimation by institutional investors, and might not have any supply chain confirmation.
    • A self-proclaimed Foxconn worker in China posted a series of leaks on Tieba (Chinese forums). The messages were later deleted. The earliest screenshot that I found, and also the Reddit translations were from 11/2016. At the time, their factory was assembling 20,000 units per day. Since this was the earliest assembly line leak, November was likely close to the beginning of volume assembly. If they took a month to ramp up, October probably was the starting point, 5 months before the product release (10/2016 to 03/2017).
  • So based on the precedents, a new Switch model may take between 3 to 5 months from assembly to release. If the NG assembly is to begin later this year, I suspect that it’d be closer to 5 month (instead of 3) due to the Lunar New Year slow-down, same as in 2017.
 
Dark Cloud said:
It’s sad he won’t get that again since Microsoft owns him.
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I mean... if the ABK deal goes through, it's in Nintendo's best interest to share a dev kit with them because of the free Activision Blizzard games on their system.
Idk, it depends on how much Nintendo trusts Xbox with keeping their system a secret and not copying it.
 
Skittzo said:
You may be shocked to learn that a Mario game will launch on the console at some point
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I'm sad to be the one sharing with you the news, but Mario oficially died on March 31st 2021 - every Mario appareance we've seen since was recorded in advance. From now on, only Moustache Toad is allowed to be the official Nintendo mascot.
 
fwd-bwd said:
Regarding the β€œproduction” timeline, I think that we should separate the production of parts and the assembly of product, the latter being more salient to our speculation of NG release window.

Production of parts:
  • According to this Chinese IPO document, the OLED model’s joy-con rails entered volume production 6 months before the product release (04/2021 to 10/2021).
  • According to this Bloomberg report, the OLED panel enter production 4 months before the product release (06/2021 to 10/2021).
Assembly of product:
  • According to the same Bloomberg report, the assembly of the OLED model began 3 months before the release (07/2021 to 10/2021).
  • The start date of assembly for the OG Switch is murkier.
    • MoneyDJ reported that Foxconn Technology’s business would improve in H2 2016 due to β€œNX” assembly. However, it was framed as an estimation by institutional investors, and might not have any supply chain confirmation.
    • A self-proclaimed Foxconn worker in China posted a series of leaks on Tieba (Chinese forums). The messages were later deleted. The earliest screenshot that I found, and also the Reddit translations were from 11/2016. At the time, their factory was assembling 20,000 units per day. Since this was the earliest assembly line leak, November was likely close to the beginning of volume assembly. If they took a month to ramp up, October probably was the starting point, 5 months before the product release (10/2016 to 03/2017).
  • So based on the precedents, a new Switch model may take between 3 to 5 months from assembly to release. If the NG assembly is to begin later this year, I suspect that it’d be closer to 5 month (instead of 3) due to the Lunar New Year slow-down, same as in 2017.
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Exactly. I brought this up earlier. It seemed unheard of for a 9-10 month production to release. If you tell me it’s starting end of this year that feels like a H1 release not a H2 release.
 
Dark Cloud said:
Exactly. I brought this up earlier. It seemed unheard of for a 9-10 month production to release. If you tell me it’s starting end of this year that feels like a H1 release not a H2 release.
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While you're probably right (I agree), it's worth noting that the only reasoning given by VGC and others who expect an H2 2024 launch seems to be so that Nintendo has enough stock for launch and doesn't have crazy shortages.

So if they're doing a 9-10 month production run that would also fit with that idea, that they just want to have a ton of units at launch.

That being said I don't think there's really such a thing as "enough units at launch" so I do think that reasoning is a bit suspect.
 
Skittzo said:
While you're probably right (I agree), it's worth noting that the only reasoning given by VGC and others who expect an H2 2024 launch seems to be so that Nintendo has enough stock for launch and doesn't have crazy shortages.

So if they're doing a 9-10 month production run that would also fit with that idea, that they just want to have a ton of units at launch.

That being said I don't think there's really such a thing as "enough units at launch" so I do think that reasoning is a bit suspect.
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Yeah I remember they said that’s why it was being done so all in all it does line up with their story.
 
Dakhil said:
The problem is not so much that good quality LCD displays aren't available. Rather, there's going to be LCD display variation (i.e. LCD display lottery), especially if the rumour that Innolux is one of the LCD display providers is accurate. (See Erica Griffin's video where she compared the LCD displays of different Nintendo Switch (2019) models.)
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Isn’t that rumor though pertaining to the PlayStation Portal?
 
On the subject of production lines and suppliers, I was looking at Nvidia's recent financials to see if there were any clues around when they might expect to see revenue from Switch 2. One curious thing I noticed is that the presentations for 23Q3, 23Q4 and 24Q1 all list "game consoles" as a growth driver for the Gaming segment. Nintendo is their only console customer, and Switch hardware sales are declining, so it either points to a new Switch, or a very left-field turn from MS or Sony. Of course this doesn't tell us anything we don't know, and growth drivers like this are typically pretty vague on timescales, with Nvidia pretty much just copying and pasting the same slide for three quarters in a row. The latest quarterly presentation (24Q2) used pretty much the same slide again, but swapped out game consoles for "GenAI on PC", although I would guess that it has less to do with a new Switch and more just a desire for Nvidia to ride the AI hype train wherever they can. In theory it's possible they removed it because they're already seeing that revenue and therefore it's no longer a growth driver (ie they started shipping T239 at scale to Nintendo in Q2), but that seems pretty early, even for a H1 2024 launch.

In terms of impact on revenue, we could do some back-of-an-envelope maths. Assuming 20 million units a year, that's 5 million chips shipped a quarter, and a cost of $40-$50 per unit would mean revenue of $200M to $250M per quarter. That's about 10% of Nvidia's current gaming revenue, so definitely enough to move the needle, but there's a lot of variability in Nvidia's gaming revenue at the moment, so it would be impossible to say when shipments start just from looking at that (unless they explicitly say "big increase in game console revenue this quarter", which seems pretty unlikely).
 
Stock is complicated. Nintendo can manufacture as many units as they want, but holding them well before launch will just result in pre-release black market sales. And while they can stock them up in giant warehouses near production facilities, their ability to supply units to stores is limited by shipping speed and capacity. So while an extended manufacturing period seems possible, 9 months seems a little wild.

The March launch of the Switch was useful for managing stock not because of the lead time, but because it let them manufacture counter cyclically - not competing with other products for holiday capacity - while also letting them meet Fan demand first, and then Holiday demand second. A big ramp up for a Holiday launch would still be throttled by massive demand on one side, and shipping limits on the other.

If Nintendo wants to fight scalpers with production, the key is to keep stock in stores. If scalpers buy an entire product launch, but then Nintendo just refills those stores with fresh stock, scalpers will be price competing with MSRP, which makes scalping unprofitable. So a combination of managing supply, demand, and shipping. The smartest move purely from a scalping perspective is to get away from a Holiday launch.

Which is not to say I think that's what Nintendo is planning. Scalping doesn't have to be Nintendo's #1 priority.
 
Hermii said:
We all know T239 is impressive since the lapsus hack. What's new?
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That's the question. isn't it.

Going back to the Todd Howard thing from 2016, he said it was the best demo he'd ever seen but that was probably referring to the fact that it had full console games portably, with good visuals. Not, "whoa this is better than PS4!". So maybe there's something similar going on here, a new idea that people are impressed that they pulled off.

Not like, portable 4k gaming, but something else that's new and improved compared to other devices like this. Not necessarily a gimmick or a hook, but some way of showing off more flexibility or more parity with stationary consoles, or more functionality. I really have no idea what it would be but I'm way more interested in that than the visuals themselves.
 
1) post 2 images of water in a cup
2) get 40 Yeah!s out of it

926e5009-c10a-48fe-b90e-fa0760f82fcd.png


Seriously though it's fun to see the enthusiasm and excitement in here, even if we're probably still a ways away from actually having something official :p
 
Skittzo said:
That's the question. isn't it.

Going back to the Todd Howard thing from 2016, he said it was the best demo he'd ever seen but that was probably referring to the fact that it had full console games portably, with good visuals. Not, "whoa this is better than PS4!". So maybe there's something similar going on here, a new idea that people are impressed that they pulled off.

Not like, portable 4k gaming, but something else that's new and improved compared to other devices like this. Not necessarily a gimmick or a hook, but some way of showing off more flexibility or more parity with stationary consoles, or more functionality. I really have no idea what it would be but I'm way more interested in that than the visuals themselves.
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IMO, a demo like that would be an RTGI demo with virtualized geometry/mesh shader support and dlss in a "game ready environment". It would easily show its superiority over ps4 and be realistically achievable and easily demonstrable. But I'm just talking about what I would like to see

Dakhil said:
I don't think so, since that rumour mentioned a 7.91" 1080p display. And Sony mentioned the PlayStation Portal uses a 8" 1080p display.
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That's close enough for most folks to call an 8in screen
 
I think even if it were just the 1080p tablet screen running 3D Mario, docked to give a full-fat 4K image, both with essentially perfect IQ, I'd still call it an impressive and exceptional demo. I've been steeped in the on-paper specs suggested by the hack for the past 1.5 years. but nothing would compare to actually seeing it run. There is effectively no other device that could do what this thing does, with its particular capabilities. with the level of convenience and seamlessness it's promising.

Not to mention whatever additional sensors and features it has, like quick resume between multiple games, or (a personal wish) a touchpad on one of the joy-con like the Lenovo handheld.
 
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