I think you're reading way too much specific information out of vague statements.
He says: "However, at this stage, we believe that our top priorities are maintaining and expanding the utilization of Nintendo Switch".
I hear: "Right now, we're mostly focused on Switch."
You hear: "We will say absolutely nothing about hardware that isn't Switch until at least April 1, 2024."
I’m reading all of the Q&A from the different questions as they pertain to a similar idea of wanting to ride out the switch well into the holiday season. While also accounting for the scenarios in which can allow for an announcement, a few months, and then release.
But here’s the thing, if they want to ride out this system well into the holidays, if I were them, I wouldn’t announce a new system before then for this holiday, I’d want to maximize this holiday.
If I were to release a new system in the H1 of the following year, it would be announced during the last quarter of the previous year if I don’t care too much about the sales of this holiday.
I find it hard to believe them announcing this in January
after the Christmas and New Year’s period.
I don’t see any announcement at any meeting anyway so I’m going to ignore the early February meeting as a spot for announcing, but I also don’t see them doing it so early.
An announcement in later February for a June/July period of release is really bizarre, even for them in this day and age.
And I don’t see a really short cycle if announced in February for say an April or May launch, I see that as being very much off the table.
The only free window opportunity I see is a June/July 2024 announcement for a November 2024 launch.
But like I said before,
this assumes we are to take a Q&A as gospel. Of course, no one should expect them to say “oh yeah we are releasing new hardware this year” in the Q&A because that would spread like wildfire and be a disaster.
However, I think FY24 is off the cards, on top of their desire to attempt to hit a high number even if not confident (they’ll revise this down I feel). That ends in March 31st (you know this), but if they announce it anytime during that quarter, it’ll reduce their sales and make hitting a target even harder.
or early 2025 if software isn’t ready, again.