Mostly because I work in purchasing and all our raw materials and the freight of those raw materials have shot up since 2022 and show no signs of coming down. Ocean freight containers went up 4x the price for our company and diesel has gone up about 35%. Maybe the semiconductor sector is different, but the Steamdeck has a smaller and weaker APU than the Drake's leaked components and that thing retails for over $500 alone.I’m struggling to understand what part is is that people think will cause this massive jump over equivalent part costs in 2017 when Switch’s MSRP was established.
Base steam deck is $399 and Nintendo has much more negotiating power over steamMostly because I work in purchasing and all our raw materials and the freight of those raw materials have shot up since 2022 and show no signs of coming down. Ocean freight containers went up 4x the price for our company and diesel has gone up about 35%. Maybe the semiconductor sector is different, but the Steamdeck has a smaller and weaker APU than the Drake's leaked components and that thing retails for over $500 alone.
Switch Lite OLED about to put you in shambles.There are no new models coming. Either an upgrade is released this year, or it's nothing but special editions until the upgrade releases next year.
When you say "new models", do you mean like a mid-gen refresh (Switch Lite/Oled) or a next-gen system (Switch 2)?There are no new models coming. Either an upgrade is released this year, or it's nothing but special editions until the upgrade releases next year.
I think he means tx1 revisions.When you say "new models", do you mean like a mid-gen refresh (Switch Lite/Oled) or a next-gen system (Switch 2)?
I mean there's no OLED Lite, TV-only Switch, etc. The next product we see (besides colorways) from Nintendo will be upgraded hardware, i.e. Drake.When you say "new models", do you mean like a mid-gen refresh (Switch Lite/Oled) or a next-gen system (Switch 2)?
Ahhhh, gotcha. ThnxI mean there's no OLED Lite, TV-only Switch, etc. The next product we see (besides colorways) from Nintendo will be upgraded hardware, i.e. Drake.
I mean Nvidia did mention in the Linux commits that T239 uses 8 CPU cores in a cluster, which does heavily imply the Cortex-A78C, which has up to 8 MB of L3 cache.Imo Nintendo will go for the setup that offers most performance per $, which probably isn't the one with the most cache.
"Up to" yes. I just kind of doubt they will max it out.I mean Nvidia did mention in the Linux commits that T239 uses 8 CPU cores in a cluster, which does heavily imply the Cortex-A78C, which has up to 8 MB of L3 cache.
The "cheap" is the big if there. How cheap can you make a TV only Switch if you have to basically have all of the components of the the V2 or OLED model minus the display? The Switch SoC expects to talk to the dock via DisplayPort over USB-C to output a video signal that the dock converts to HDMI so you aren't really removing any components other than the display and maybe the controllers if you are marketing this as an add on item for current Switch owners.I still think a TV model could make sense if they got it down really cheap
Minus the display, the battery and the dock.The "cheap" is the big if there. How cheap can you make a TV only Switch if you have to basically have all of the components of the the V2 or OLED model minus the display? The Switch SoC expects to talk to the dock via DisplayPort over USB-C to output a video signal that the dock converts to HDMI so you aren't really removing any components other than the display and maybe the controllers if you are marketing this as an add on item for current Switch owners.
I'm curious is there a current BOM analysis for any of the current Switch models? I know the launch Switch was estimated at around $255 for its BOM, but other than the estimate that the OLED model costs $10 more than the V2 Switch I can't find anything recent.
I threw an edit in, because yes I missed the battery, but I address the dock, the dock chipset itself is absolutely still needed. I didnt address the plastic of the dock itself because I assumed that was implied by the prospect of building a new case for this device.Minus the display, the battery and the dock.
Not really little.
Not only the plastic. Even the double TV-dock and dock-console connection would no longer be needed.I threw an edit in, because yes I missed the battery, but I address the dock, the dock chipset itself is absolutely still needed. I didnt address the plastic of the dock itself because I assumed that was implied by the prospect of building a new case for this device.
Not really? The API can run on anything with an Nvidia GPU (and that Nvidia has an OS build for). The documentation is just about how to use NVN.Seems like if there was a Switch Pro/Switch 4K model planned, there would have been some pretty obvious information within NVN, since that would be the API.
If they ever made a TV model at 100 rupees or less, that would almost mean giving the console for free considering that joycons are sold something like 80 bucks.
I could possibly see 150, with 1 game and 1 year of NSO I guess, if they really really want to sell the console in poor countries for example like Sony did with the very cheap PS2 at the end of its life. But I really doubt they'd spend time and resources for a TV only console.
For what it's worth, I didn't think that they would release a Switch that doesn't switch because it didn't feel like something people actively needed, yet the Lite exists. Not a great success though, so I was only half wrong I guess.
Let's assume that they would indeed bundle the pro controller rather than the joycons, thus limiting the base pack to single player when though a TV console is more suited to multiplayer than any other configuration.A Pro Controller is cheaper to manufacture than two Joy-Con, and probably more appealing to the target demographic.
Nvidia Shield TV comes in at as little as 120$, which has the same processor as a Nintendo Switch, with an RF and IR remote which probably has similar producion costs to a Pro Controller, with the Pro Controller and Nintendo Switch benefitting from much better economies of scale and Nintendo not needing to make a huge, if any, profit on it.
If Nvidia is selling a product and (probably) making a profit at 120$, an extremely similar product that also acts as a gateway to lots of recurrent revenue like a Switch TV could come in at that price or below.
Indeed. The Nvidia Shield TV, which uses the exact same SoC, uses HDMI without some special connection.Not only the plastic. Even the double TV-dock and dock-console connection would no longer be needed.
Steam Deck's Van Gogh APU has a die size of 160 something mm^2 on N7. One of Thraktor's estimates had Drake in the 120's if it were on N7, so that's a quarter less.Mostly because I work in purchasing and all our raw materials and the freight of those raw materials have shot up since 2022 and show no signs of coming down. Ocean freight containers went up 4x the price for our company and diesel has gone up about 35%. Maybe the semiconductor sector is different, but the Steamdeck has a smaller and weaker APU than the Drake's leaked components and that thing retails for over $500 alone.
Going under an average of 1 MB of L3 per core would be kinda odd though. Like, your L2 already goes up to half an MB. Having an L3 average out to about the same as your L2 is just weird. I really don't see the big deal in spending the 1-2 mm^2 to go from 4 MB to 8 MB. But I'm also the same guy who thinks that spending 2-3 mm^2 to go from 8 to 16 MB is justifiable"Up to" yes. I just kind of doubt they will max it out.
A TV only Switch is ABSOLUTELY not best suited to multiplayer.Let's assume that they would indeed bundle the pro controller rather than the joycons, thus limiting the base pack to single player when though a TV console is more suited to multiplayer than any other configuration.
If Nintendo can sell you a pro controller at 65, and a TV console+pro controller at 100, then they effectively sell you the console alone at 35. Not a great deal for Nintendo.
Production costs are less relevant than how much Nintendo can squeeze out of people. And a 100-ish console probably isn't worth the hassle, especially as it would sell to cost conscious people who would probably not want to spend 60 bucks on half decade old games too often.
Anyway, I won't dwell in one of these never ending arguments for a machine which is probably not going to release. I already did that last year when I gave arguments as to why the Switch 2 wouldn't release in 2022 nor 2023, and it never resulted in anything positive.
I see your reasoning, and for the most part I agree. But the low end gaming market is not the casual gaming market.A $100 TV only Switch is unlikely to do Nintendo any good. The low-end gaming market has been saturated by mobile devices and the gocha games; any precedents of the Nintendo past are hardly applicable today.
I’m in agreement with your assessment of gaming market segmentation. In my head at least, these lower-end core gamers fall into the middle market, which for the most part is well served by the Switch family of products (but a better NSO and new gen of hardware wouldn’t hurt). The price sensitive hardcores also have XSS, as you mentioned, Raspberry Pi, ODroid, and low/mid tiered PC to choose from. I don’t see an untapped market yearning for an $100 TV Switch to unlock. But of course, I don’t have any actual market research data in front of me, and can be way off the mark.I see your reasoning, and for the most part I agree. But the low end gaming market is not the casual gaming market.
The entire gaming industry has oriented itself around chasing “whales” - the smaller chunk of the market who spend disproportionately.
There are whale casuals, who spend huge chunks on lootboxen, whale hardcore gamers who want 300 hour open world experiences, and whale techies who will pay extra for marginal performance improvements.
There are also non-whale members of each of these categories. And the best deal for a price sensitive hardcore gamer is the Series S with game pass, and not any machine in the Nintendo lineup.
just remember that for every dollar they save, that's one dollar more in profit per sale. For the Switch it would have added up to 100 million+ in profits.Going under an average of 1 MB of L3 per core would be kinda odd though. Like, your L2 already goes up to half an MB. Having an L3 average out to about the same as your L2 is just weird. I really don't see the big deal in spending the 1-2 mm^2 to go from 4 MB to 8 MB. But I'm also the same guy who thinks that spending 2-3 mm^2 to go from 8 to 16 MB is justifiable
Edit: I'd also like to add that ARM agrees with me, considering that the DSU-110 update in 2021 allows for a max of 16 MB L3
I don't have any strong opinions about CPU cache, but I am going to butt in and say $100m (or 200, or 500) over six years is pocket change. Nintendo's net sales posted today for just the past nine months are almost 10 billion dollars.just remember that for every dollar they save, that's one dollar more in profit per sale. For the Switch it would have added up to 100 million+ in profits.
I have no idea what the price/ performance difference between the different a78c configurations is. Maybe it does make sense for Nintendo to go with the maxed out version, but kinda doubt it.I don't have any strong opinions about CPU cache, but I am going to butt in and say $100m (or 200, or 500) over six years is pocket change. Nintendo's net sales posted today for just the past nine months are almost 10 billion dollars.
Software underperformed as well, they had to revise the forecast down. Definitely not going to reach the last two fiscal years.The FY23 hardware forecast has been reduced from 19m to 18m. Evidently the supply chain conditions didn't improve in time for the holidays. And it seems very unlikely that Nintendo will hit their original 21m target if they're still reducing it at this point in time (Bloomberg and Mochi holding the L again). Software, however, is selling like crazy -- on track for the Switch's best FY ever.
I'm sure you will all speculate wildly about what this means for new hardware. To me, the number one thing it means is, if we still believe the other rumor about Nintendo forecasts -- telling suppliers to expect more Switch orders in FY24 than in the current FY23 -- this contextualizes it. Because it's not a high bar to expect more orders in the next year than during the obviously very supply constrained conditions they're dealing with right now. That's even without accounting for whether some of those order might be components for hardware besides the current Switch models.
Financial highlights are out. I'm assuming the untranslated Q&A session will come in a day or so? (Judging by how it went last year)
which section is that in? I thought they were mentioning forecasts for the year at their next meeting after the fiscal year beginsLooks like they reduce the expected Switch sales numbers for 2023, so the report of the last few days was wrong
In one of the multiple document shows that they expect to sell 18mwhich section is that in? I thought they were mentioning forecasts for the year at their next meeting after the fiscal year begins
gotchaIn one of the multiple document shows that they expect to sell 18m
gotcha
What?
I dont remember the exact document but there are a lot of reportings about nintendo reducing the predictions
So save yourself the gotcha and any other attempt to mock. This kind of attitudes only bring bad vibes to the thread
Oh in that case sorry for the confusiongotcha also just means 'I understand (thanks)'
Wii Mini actually launched in Canada ahead of Wii U.Absolutely, I think the 100-120 range, I mean they had 80 dollar consoles on shelves in 2017, after inflation that's not over 120 dollars. Also apparently the price Microsoft is aiming for with Project Keystone, the Xbox game streaming box.
I mean, let's put this in simple terms; The Nvidia Shield TV with the same processor and a remote is well under 100$. I have no doubt Nintendo could price it aggressively.
That said, if it is to follow precious patterns for their home consoles, the SNES Jr. And Wii Mini both came out AFTER the launch of their successors. I would expect similar to happen here, with Switch Mini TV clearing out the ends of the Switch 1 production after they've moved onto the 2 as the primary device.
I dont remember the exact document but there are a lot of reportings about nintendo reducing the predictions
edit: I misunderstood the "gotcha", sorry if I have caused any confusion
As I've mentioned in discussion on this topic a few times, there's anywhere from something close to 10 integrated circuits you could outright remove and not replace on a Switch between the console and the dock, because most of the ones in the dock are to facilitate the single USB-C connection to deliver power, USB accessory use and video signal and then convert it all in and out to the dock connections and back to the device, and there's no small number related to the screen and battery (ambient light sensor, for example).The "cheap" is the big if there. How cheap can you make a TV only Switch if you have to basically have all of the components of the the V2 or OLED model minus the display? The Switch SoC expects to talk to the dock via DisplayPort over USB-C to output a video signal that the dock converts to HDMI so you aren't really removing any components other than the display and maybe the controllers if you are marketing this as an add on item for current Switch owners.
I'm curious is there a current BOM analysis for any of the current Switch models? I know the launch Switch was estimated at around $255 for its BOM, but other than the estimate that the OLED model costs $10 more than the V2 Switch I can't find anything recent.
Edit: Forgot the battery, I did not forget the dock, at least the chipset is needed.
As mentioned, it's not giving the console away for free. I mean... it's not like the OG Switch cost less than $210 when you deduct Joycon retail price from it, that's not how it works. You cannot sell a console without a controller, so the controller is always subsidized down to cost and sold at retail for profit, a TV-only Switch would be no different.If they ever made a TV model at 100 rupees or less, that would almost mean giving the console for free considering that joycons are sold something like 80 bucks.
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For what it's worth, I didn't think that they would release a Switch that doesn't switch because it didn't feel like something people actively needed, yet the Lite exists. Not a great success though, so I was only half wrong I guess.
Yeah, in the tweet, but in the press note they put the correct total hardware sales xdI'll be doing a deep dive in their R&D spending now that I have this quarter's data to work with, see what we can glean from it all, but preliminary peeking suggests it is not looking good for the May 2023 launch hopefuls. But don't jump the gun there, proper posting on that will come tomorrow.
Wii Mini actually launched in Canada ahead of Wii U.
They actually have the hardware total wrong, that was from last quarter.
As I've mentioned in discussion on this topic a few times, there's anywhere from something close to 10 integrated circuits you could outright remove and not replace on a Switch between the console and the dock, because most of the ones in the dock are to facilitate the single USB-C connection to deliver power, USB accessory use and video signal and then convert it all in and out to the dock connections and back to the device, and there's no small number related to the screen and battery (ambient light sensor, for example).
You also forgot the speaker assembly.
The amount of parts Nintendo could shave off the bill of materials for a TV-only device is staggering and shows how much goes into Switch's hybrid design but also how much cost is associated with getting there.
As mentioned, it's not giving the console away for free. I mean... it's not like the OG Switch cost less than $210 when you deduct Joycon retail price from it, that's not how it works. You cannot sell a console without a controller, so the controller is always subsidized down to cost and sold at retail for profit, a TV-only Switch would be no different.
Looks like they reduce the expected Switch sales numbers for 2023, so the report of the last few days was wrong
If they are reducing the current ones for a few months, I doubt that they will increase on the 2024 fiscal yearThe Bloomberg/Nikkei reports about HW forecast were for the upcoming year (04/23 - 03/24). Not the ongoing one (04/22 - 03/23).
Agreed, or there truly is new hardware coming in that timeframe.If they are reducing the current ones for a few months, I doubt that they will increase on the 2024 fiscal year
yeah, im speaking about switch. If they release a Switch 2 on the third quarter it could be different.Agreed, or there truly is new hardware coming in that timeframe.
Nikkei mainly talked about the upcoming one but Bloomberg did mention (analyst IIRC) expectations that they'd revise upwards to 21M for this ongoing FY mainly on the back of Pokemon.The Bloomberg/Nikkei reports about HW forecast were for the upcoming year (04/23 - 03/24). Not the ongoing one (04/22 - 03/23).
From Nintendo:The FY23 hardware forecast has been reduced from 19m to 18m. Evidently the supply chain conditions didn't improve in time for the holidays. And it seems very unlikely that Nintendo will hit their original 21m target if they're still reducing it at this point in time (Bloomberg and Mochi holding the L again). Software, however, is selling like crazy -- on track for the Switch's best FY ever.
...
At least in Europe, I've been seeing Switches everywhere, even the OLED, readily available despite the holidays.For the months of October through December 2022 which encompass the holiday season, the effects of shortages of semiconductors and other components was largely resolved, and shipments generally went according to plan. However, unit sales were down compared to the same period last year, when Nintendo Switch – OLED Model was released.
Yeah, in europe is still possible to buy the special oleds editions fror example. As you said, the demand is decreasingFrom Nintendo:
At least in Europe, I've been seeing Switches everywhere, even the OLED, readily available despite the holidays.
The demand is now lower than their production capacity.
I'd say semiconductor shortages is now a thing of the past (until the next one I guess).
Even Sony is pushing PS5s like hotcakes.
Nintendo is now forecasting 18M hardware units sold for FY 2023.
Even with TotK and the Mario Movie, I wouldn't expect more than 16M sales in FY 2024.
The Nikkei/Bloomberg report for FY 2024 is either wrong, or Nintendo is releasing new hardware at least before Holiday 2023.
Is a "no comment" better than "no plan for new hardware"?Fans have high expectations for the next-generation console. The interval between the release of the previous generation machine "Wii U" and the release of the switch is about four years. The release interval from "Nintendo DS" to "Nintendo 3DS" was about six years. At a press conference on the 7th, Furukawa said, "I would like to refrain from making any specific comments."
They acknowledged that hardware sales is slowing down. The familiar "unique ways to play" boilerplate doesn't mean much, but "promote sales" probably suggests new SEs and sales (e.g., game vouchers back in the US).Nintendo said, "Switch has sold more than 120 million units in total, and although it will not be easy to sell at the pace we have seen so far, we will continue to propose unique ways to play and promote sales."