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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
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Mostly because I work in purchasing and all our raw materials and the freight of those raw materials have shot up since 2022 and show no signs of coming down. Ocean freight containers went up 4x the price for our company and diesel has gone up about 35%. Maybe the semiconductor sector is different, but the Steamdeck has a smaller and weaker APU than the Drake's leaked components and that thing retails for over $500 alone.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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OP
OP
I mean Nvidia did mention in the Linux commits that T239 uses 8 CPU cores in a cluster, which does heavily imply the Cortex-A78C, which has up to 8 MB of L3 cache.
"Up to" yes. I just kind of doubt they will max it out.
Foltzie
Uncle
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The "cheap" is the big if there. How cheap can you make a TV only Switch if you have to basically have all of the components of the the V2 or OLED model minus the display? The Switch SoC expects to talk to the dock via DisplayPort over USB-C to output a video signal that the dock converts to HDMI so you aren't really removing any components other than the display and maybe the controllers if you are marketing this as an add on item for current Switch owners.
I'm curious is there a current BOM analysis for any of the current Switch models? I know the launch Switch was estimated at around $255 for its BOM, but other than the estimate that the OLED model costs $10 more than the V2 Switch I can't find anything recent.
Edit: Forgot the battery, I did not forget the dock, at least the chipset is needed.
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Eclissi
Moblin
Minus the display, the battery and the dock.
Not really little.
Foltzie
Uncle
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I threw an edit in, because yes I missed the battery, but I address the dock, the dock chipset itself is absolutely still needed. I didnt address the plastic of the dock itself because I assumed that was implied by the prospect of building a new case for this device.
OP
OP
I hope that foldable display technology becomes more durable to the point where Nintendo considers using folding display technology to design a hybrid console similar to Samsung's Flex Gaming concept.
retrododo.com
Samsung Flex Handheld Concept Hopes To Compete With Razer
It would seem that Samsung is looking to get into the handheld android gaming market with Samsung Flex Gaming.
retrododo.com
If they ever made a TV model at 100 rupees or less, that would almost mean giving the console for free considering that joycons are sold something like 80 bucks.
I could possibly see 150, with 1 game and 1 year of NSO I guess, if they really really want to sell the console in poor countries for example like Sony did with the very cheap PS2 at the end of its life. But I really doubt they'd spend time and resources for a TV only console.
For what it's worth, I didn't think that they would release a Switch that doesn't switch because it didn't feel like something people actively needed, yet the Lite exists. Not a great success though, so I was only half wrong I guess.
I could possibly see 150, with 1 game and 1 year of NSO I guess, if they really really want to sell the console in poor countries for example like Sony did with the very cheap PS2 at the end of its life. But I really doubt they'd spend time and resources for a TV only console.
For what it's worth, I didn't think that they would release a Switch that doesn't switch because it didn't feel like something people actively needed, yet the Lite exists. Not a great success though, so I was only half wrong I guess.
Eclissi
Moblin
Not only the plastic. Even the double TV-dock and dock-console connection would no longer be needed.
Goodtwin
Like Like
Maybe the canceled hardware for 2022/2023 was going to be a 4K Switch TV only model? Xavier was always speculated to be a possible SOC for the Switch Pro, but in reality it was always way to big and power hungry for the Switch form factor. Remove the portability factor and suddenly you have a TV only Switch 4K model that is about the same size as the Jetson Xavier module. Total speculation of course, but perhaps Nintendo found it to be a bad idea to release a 4K Switch model with the Switch successor coming within 12-18 months after the targeted release date, perhaps diminishing the demand for the true successor.
I know information on NVN2 leaked in the Nvida breach, but was there also documentation on NVN? Seems like if there was a Switch Pro/Switch 4K model planned, there would have been some pretty obvious information within NVN, since that would be the API. Or does NVN2 still support OG Switch?
I know information on NVN2 leaked in the Nvida breach, but was there also documentation on NVN? Seems like if there was a Switch Pro/Switch 4K model planned, there would have been some pretty obvious information within NVN, since that would be the API. Or does NVN2 still support OG Switch?
LiC
Member
Not really? The API can run on anything with an Nvidia GPU (and that Nvidia has an OS build for). The documentation is just about how to use NVN.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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A Pro Controller is cheaper to manufacture than two Joy-Con, and probably more appealing to the target demographic.
Nvidia Shield TV comes in at as little as 120$, which has the same processor as a Nintendo Switch, with an RF and IR remote which probably has similar producion costs to a Pro Controller, with the Pro Controller and Nintendo Switch benefitting from much better economies of scale and Nintendo not needing to make a huge, if any, profit on it.
If Nvidia is selling a product and (probably) making a profit at 120$, an extremely similar product that also acts as a gateway to lots of recurrent revenue like a Switch TV could come in at that price or below.
A $100 TV only Switch is unlikely to do Nintendo any good. The low-end gaming market has been saturated by mobile devices and the gocha games; any precedents of the Nintendo past are hardly applicable today.
In 2022, there were about 3 billion mobile gamers globally, out of the 6.6 billion smartphone owners. That's a whopping 45% participation rate across all demographics. As for the 3.6 billion non-gamers, despite zero entry barrier (device in your pocket) and zero cost ("free" games), they are decidedly not interested in gaming. You are unlikely to build a console cheap enough to convert this market, not to mention selling them $60 games. The fabled "blue ocean" has turned red years ago.
On the other end of the market, manufacturers are clued in that many enthusiasts are willing to pay a premium to feed their hobby. Sony/MS have been raking in money from their $200 controllers, and AMD/Nvidia from thousand dollar GPUs. Selling an $100 console to enthusiasts would be anachronistic and leaving tons of money on the table. The "red ocean" has gone gold, and just as shark-infested, if not more.
As the Switch crosses 120 million units sold, a large part of the success can be attributed to its occupation of the middle market—the contemporary "blue ocean" IMHO. A more sensible strategy would be to deepen its product "moat" in this segment, instead of introducing bargain-bin variants or powerful racehorses.
Lastly, I'm not sure if the $399 Steam Deck is an exemplar of penetration pricing strategy. a) $399 isn't exactly pocket change. b) Newell called the price "painful", implying a nontrivial loss. c) Since the most expensive model ($649) is "far and away" the most popular, Newell believes that gamers "would like an even more expensive version". What the $399 model actual does, however, is to establish a floor price (anchoring) to attract lookers, but offer severely compromised specs/performance (decoy pricing) to demonstrate the value of higher-tier models. Switch Lite, likewise, plays the same role for Nintendo, and will be kept around in spite of its low sales. I won't hold my breath for an OLED display or docking capability. The job of an anchor/decoy product is to deprive, not to satisfy.
In 2022, there were about 3 billion mobile gamers globally, out of the 6.6 billion smartphone owners. That's a whopping 45% participation rate across all demographics. As for the 3.6 billion non-gamers, despite zero entry barrier (device in your pocket) and zero cost ("free" games), they are decidedly not interested in gaming. You are unlikely to build a console cheap enough to convert this market, not to mention selling them $60 games. The fabled "blue ocean" has turned red years ago.
On the other end of the market, manufacturers are clued in that many enthusiasts are willing to pay a premium to feed their hobby. Sony/MS have been raking in money from their $200 controllers, and AMD/Nvidia from thousand dollar GPUs. Selling an $100 console to enthusiasts would be anachronistic and leaving tons of money on the table. The "red ocean" has gone gold, and just as shark-infested, if not more.
As the Switch crosses 120 million units sold, a large part of the success can be attributed to its occupation of the middle market—the contemporary "blue ocean" IMHO. A more sensible strategy would be to deepen its product "moat" in this segment, instead of introducing bargain-bin variants or powerful racehorses.
Lastly, I'm not sure if the $399 Steam Deck is an exemplar of penetration pricing strategy. a) $399 isn't exactly pocket change. b) Newell called the price "painful", implying a nontrivial loss. c) Since the most expensive model ($649) is "far and away" the most popular, Newell believes that gamers "would like an even more expensive version". What the $399 model actual does, however, is to establish a floor price (anchoring) to attract lookers, but offer severely compromised specs/performance (decoy pricing) to demonstrate the value of higher-tier models. Switch Lite, likewise, plays the same role for Nintendo, and will be kept around in spite of its low sales. I won't hold my breath for an OLED display or docking capability. The job of an anchor/decoy product is to deprive, not to satisfy.
Let's assume that they would indeed bundle the pro controller rather than the joycons, thus limiting the base pack to single player when though a TV console is more suited to multiplayer than any other configuration.
If Nintendo can sell you a pro controller at 65, and a TV console+pro controller at 100, then they effectively sell you the console alone at 35. Not a great deal for Nintendo.
Production costs are less relevant than how much Nintendo can squeeze out of people. And a 100-ish console probably isn't worth the hassle, especially as it would sell to cost conscious people who would probably not want to spend 60 bucks on half decade old games too often.
Anyway, I won't dwell in one of these never ending arguments for a machine which is probably not going to release. I already did that last year when I gave arguments as to why the Switch 2 wouldn't release in 2022 nor 2023, and it never resulted in anything positive.
Indeed. The Nvidia Shield TV, which uses the exact same SoC, uses HDMI without some special connection.
Look over there
Bob-omb
Steam Deck's Van Gogh APU has a die size of 160 something mm^2 on N7. One of Thraktor's estimates had Drake in the 120's if it were on N7, so that's a quarter less.
I also wonder if the NVMe SSD options inflate the cost over an alternative like eUFS.
Going under an average of 1 MB of L3 per core would be kinda odd though. Like, your L2 already goes up to half an MB. Having an L3 average out to about the same as your L2 is just weird. I really don't see the big deal in spending the 1-2 mm^2 to go from 4 MB to 8 MB. But I'm also the same guy who thinks that spending 2-3 mm^2 to go from 8 to 16 MB is justifiable
Edit: I'd also like to add that ARM agrees with me, considering that the DSU-110 update in 2021 allows for a max of 16 MB L3
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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A TV only Switch is ABSOLUTELY not best suited to multiplayer.
A Nintendo Switch OLED Model is, and is designed to be, since it can be multiplayer in the most situations. Touch only tabletop mode, two player tabletop, mosaic mode and local play, TV mode and couch co-op, TV mode and a LAN connection for online play, etc. etc.
Pro Controllers also cost a LOT less than sticker price to produce, so it wouldn't be selling the console for 35 bucks. (Though that wouldn't even be unprecedented, since a Wii Mini was the same price as Mario Kart Wii and a Wii Remote and Nunchuck, which we're both included.)
D
Deleted member 887
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I see your reasoning, and for the most part I agree. But the low end gaming market is not the casual gaming market.
The entire gaming industry has oriented itself around chasing "whales" - the smaller chunk of the market who spend disproportionately.
There are whale casuals, who spend huge chunks on lootboxen, whale hardcore gamers who want 300 hour open world experiences, and whale techies who will pay extra for marginal performance improvements.
There are also non-whale members of each of these categories. And the best deal for a price sensitive hardcore gamer is the Series S with game pass, and not any machine in the Nintendo lineup.
I’m in agreement with your assessment of gaming market segmentation. In my head at least, these lower-end core gamers fall into the middle market, which for the most part is well served by the Switch family of products (but a better NSO and new gen of hardware wouldn’t hurt). The price sensitive hardcores also have XSS, as you mentioned, Raspberry Pi, ODroid, and low/mid tiered PC to choose from. I don’t see an untapped market yearning for an $100 TV Switch to unlock. But of course, I don’t have any actual market research data in front of me, and can be way off the mark.
YugamiSekai
T239 vs. Picross 4K
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Financial highlights are out. I'm assuming the untranslated Q&A session will come in a day or so? (Judging by how it went last year)
LiC
Member
The FY23 hardware forecast has been reduced from 19m to 18m. Evidently the supply chain conditions didn't improve in time for the holidays. And it seems very unlikely that Nintendo will hit their original 21m target if they're still reducing it at this point in time (Bloomberg and Mochi holding the L again). Software, however, is selling like crazy -- on track for the Switch's best FY ever.
I'm sure you will all speculate wildly about what this means for new hardware. To me, the number one thing it means is, if we still believe the other rumor about Nintendo forecasts -- telling suppliers to expect more Switch orders in FY24 than in the current FY23 -- this contextualizes it. Because it's not a high bar to expect more orders in the next year than during the obviously very supply constrained conditions they're dealing with right now. That's even without accounting for whether some of those order might be components for hardware besides the current Switch models.
I'm sure you will all speculate wildly about what this means for new hardware. To me, the number one thing it means is, if we still believe the other rumor about Nintendo forecasts -- telling suppliers to expect more Switch orders in FY24 than in the current FY23 -- this contextualizes it. Because it's not a high bar to expect more orders in the next year than during the obviously very supply constrained conditions they're dealing with right now. That's even without accounting for whether some of those order might be components for hardware besides the current Switch models.
just remember that for every dollar they save, that's one dollar more in profit per sale. For the Switch it would have added up to 100 million+ in profits.Going under an average of 1 MB of L3 per core would be kinda odd though. Like, your L2 already goes up to half an MB. Having an L3 average out to about the same as your L2 is just weird. I really don't see the big deal in spending the 1-2 mm^2 to go from 4 MB to 8 MB. But I'm also the same guy who thinks that spending 2-3 mm^2 to go from 8 to 16 MB is justifiable
Edit: I'd also like to add that ARM agrees with me, considering that the DSU-110 update in 2021 allows for a max of 16 MB L3
LiC
Member
I don't have any strong opinions about CPU cache, but I am going to butt in and say $100m (or 200, or 500) over six years is pocket change. Nintendo's net sales posted today for just the past nine months are almost 10 billion dollars.
Looks like they reduce the expected Switch sales numbers for 2023, so the report of the last few days was wrong
eye0h
"it is known"
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which section is that in? I thought they were mentioning forecasts for the year at their next meeting after the fiscal year begins
In one of the multiple document shows that they expect to sell 18m
eye0h
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gotcha
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I dont remember the exact document but there are a lot of reportings about nintendo reducing the predictions
edit: I misunderstood the "gotcha", sorry if I have caused any confusion
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maidhhc
Abundance is a social relationship 🌱
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gotcha also just means 'I understand (thanks)'
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I'll be doing a deep dive in their R&D spending now that I have this quarter's data to work with, see what we can glean from it all, but preliminary peeking suggests it is not looking good for the May 2023 launch hopefuls. But don't jump the gun there, proper posting on that will come tomorrow.
They actually have the hardware total wrong, that was from last quarter.
You also forgot the speaker assembly.
The amount of parts Nintendo could shave off the bill of materials for a TV-only device is staggering and shows how much goes into Switch's hybrid design but also how much cost is associated with getting there.
Wii Mini actually launched in Canada ahead of Wii U.
They actually have the hardware total wrong, that was from last quarter.
As I've mentioned in discussion on this topic a few times, there's anywhere from something close to 10 integrated circuits you could outright remove and not replace on a Switch between the console and the dock, because most of the ones in the dock are to facilitate the single USB-C connection to deliver power, USB accessory use and video signal and then convert it all in and out to the dock connections and back to the device, and there's no small number related to the screen and battery (ambient light sensor, for example).
You also forgot the speaker assembly.
The amount of parts Nintendo could shave off the bill of materials for a TV-only device is staggering and shows how much goes into Switch's hybrid design but also how much cost is associated with getting there.
As mentioned, it's not giving the console away for free. I mean... it's not like the OG Switch cost less than $210 when you deduct Joycon retail price from it, that's not how it works. You cannot sell a console without a controller, so the controller is always subsidized down to cost and sold at retail for profit, a TV-only Switch would be no different.
Yeah, in the tweet, but in the press note they put the correct total hardware sales xd
The Bloomberg/Nikkei reports about HW forecast were for the upcoming year (04/23 - 03/24). Not the ongoing one (04/22 - 03/23).
If they are reducing the current ones for a few months, I doubt that they will increase on the 2024 fiscal year
Agreed, or there truly is new hardware coming in that timeframe.
yeah, im speaking about switch. If they release a Switch 2 on the third quarter it could be different.
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Nikkei mainly talked about the upcoming one but Bloomberg did mention (analyst IIRC) expectations that they'd revise upwards to 21M for this ongoing FY mainly on the back of Pokemon.
From Nintendo:
At least in Europe, I've been seeing Switches everywhere, even the OLED, readily available despite the holidays.
The demand is now lower than their production capacity.
I'd say semiconductor shortages is now a thing of the past (until the next one I guess).
Even Sony is pushing PS5s like hotcakes.
Nintendo is now forecasting 18M hardware units sold for FY 2023.
Even with TotK and the Mario Movie, I wouldn't expect more than 16M sales in FY 2024.
The Nikkei/Bloomberg report for FY 2024 is either wrong, or Nintendo is releasing new hardware at least before Holiday 2023.
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Yeah, in europe is still possible to buy the special oleds editions fror example. As you said, the demand is decreasing
While we wait for the official Q&A transcript, I found a couple hardware related quotes by Nintendo via Japanese press:
Mainichi Shimbun:
NHK:
Edit: Minor translation fix
Mainichi Shimbun:
Is a "no comment" better than "no plan for new hardware"?
NHK:
They acknowledged that hardware sales is slowing down. The familiar "unique ways to play" boilerplate doesn't mean much, but "promote sales" probably suggests new SEs and sales (e.g., game vouchers back in the US).
Edit: Minor translation fix
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