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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Imagine when Xenoblade gameplay is shown at the full reveal event…

The Xenoblade games are a thing of beauty that have been achieved with low RAM. Imagine 3x more RAM available for the next Xenobloade game!

The new 3D Mario too, using full (most) of Switch 2 graphical capabilities.

And possibly Metroid Prime 4, but enhanced for Switch 2.

I hope all those happen during the reveal. Cannot wait!
 
Imagine when Xenoblade gameplay is shown at the full reveal event…
That would be the dream but will Monolith Soft be that far into development for their Switch 2 game already? Xenoblade 3 DLC was not that long ago after all.

Maybe a remake of Xenoblade X could be close to completion though, if they have been working on that.
 


sigh

What he said was that the 13.5 million Switch hardware sales forecast for this FY don't include Switch 2. Which is not at all surprising, because they didn't forecast unit sales for Switch in May 2016 either, but still released it that financial year.

Edit: Quoting myself from a few days ago:

We'll get the same thing we get at every quarterly Q&A. A Japanese news outlet will report on something said in the Q&A which vaguely relates to new hardware, and western gaming websites will misinterpret and/or mistranslate it with the most sensationalist possible interpretation. When the transcript is published a few days later it will become clear that it was just one of Nintendo's usual non-answers, but by that point everyone will have taken the misinterpreted version as fact, and none of the websites which reported on it will edit their stories.

Every single time.
 
The Xenoblade games are a thing of beauty that have been achieved with low RAM. Imagine 3x more RAM available for the next Xenobloade game!

The new 3D Mario too, using full (most) of Switch 2 graphical capabilities.

And possibly Metroid Prime 4, but enhanced for Switch 2.

I hope all those happen during the reveal. Cannot wait!
Im firmly on team Prime 4 this year. Sales will benefit far more by relative lack of competition, than by new hardware. Might still get enhanced though.
 
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I mean, what is the second fan there for if it has a limited impact on cooling?
you'd think if the dock has been made larger to accommodate another fan & act as supplementary cooling there would have to be a good reason for it.

unless the idea is to have two slower running fans vs one working it's butt off (speaking from experience as the fans were a point of failure in launch Switches).
 
Im firmly on team Prime 4 this year. Sales will benefit far more by relative lack of competition, than by new hardware. Might still get enhanced though.
Yeah, but assuming there is a Switch 2 version of MP4..

I don't think they'll open preorders for MP4 until at minimum they announce MP4 is also coming to Switch 2 (not just BC but enhanced version).

Either way, I'm waiting for the Switch 2 version if there is a Switch 2 release of MP4 (with enhancements).

That won't prevent MP4 from coming out this year however, so you might still get your wish too. :)
 
What is the explanation for why the shipping data is retail and not for devkits, I know LiC said this is for retail stuff, just want to explain to others.
 
Article brought to you by the same publisher that broke the, "Nintendo has no major games after TotK" story in 2023
 
What is the explanation for why the shipping data is retail and not for devkits, I know LiC said this is for retail stuff, just want to explain to others.
The HGUxxxx and NL-AMxx codes. Those don't get assigned to devkits but to retail stuff, which holds true for current Switch hardware. Also the number of units I think would make it pretty clear those aren't for devkits.

Might be worth it to say we also can see devkits in the shipment data, those can easily be differentiated from the regular (retail) stuff.

LiC might have a more compelling explanation, but this one I'm offering.
 
What he said was that the 13.5 million Switch hardware sales forecast for this FY don't include Switch 2. Which is not at all surprising, because they didn't forecast unit sales for Switch in May 2016 either, but still released it that financial year.
I think the logic there is the "that target seems too high if a successor releases in this fiscal year" rather than "no forecast likely means no release".
 
That would be the dream but will Monolith Soft be that far into development for their Switch 2 game already? Xenoblade 3 DLC was not that long ago after all.

Maybe a remake of Xenoblade X could be close to completion though, if they have been working on that.
It’ll have been 3 years since Xenoblade 3 however, and XC3 was 2019 -> 2022. I think it’s fair to expect Xenoblade to show up year one, and do keep in mind that DLCs are often developed with a smaller team than the base game.
 
Imagine when Xenoblade gameplay is shown at the full reveal event…
Wasn't it rumored a while ago that their next game was most likely a new fantasy IP? Now the Xenoblade Chronicles X remake could happen before this new IP, that is a realistic possibility. I expect something like that for late 2025 while the new fantasy IP is 2027.
 
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The HGUxxxx and NL-AMxx codes. Those don't get assigned to devkits but to retail stuff, which holds true for current Switch hardware. Also the number of units I think would make it pretty clear those aren't for devkits.

Might be worth it to say we also can see devkits in the shipment data, those can easily be differentiated from the regular (retail) stuff.

LiC might have a more compelling explanation, but this one I'm offering.
Thank you! Now I can squash those last shreds of doubt ;)
 
I think the logic there is the "that target seems too high if a successor releases in this fiscal year" rather than "no forecast likely means no release".

Yeah, reading the article it seems like they're deducing it from what Furukawa said, but they've presented it as if he said it explicitly. The title is "Nintendo: No Switch 2 before April 2025", which is very misleading.
 
Dont think they really were anyway in the last couple years. HSR has a better shot still coming to Switch because its a much more optimized games, that runs on everything and the roundbased gameplay should work well even at 30 on the Switch.

The real question is now how long they are gonna wait until they are on Switch 2.
 
The HGUxxxx and NL-AMxx codes. Those don't get assigned to devkits but to retail stuff, which holds true for current Switch hardware. Also the number of units I think would make it pretty clear those aren't for devkits.

Might be worth it to say we also can see devkits in the shipment data, those can easily be differentiated from the regular (retail) stuff.

LiC might have a more compelling explanation, but this one I'm offering.

Darth did you look at the number of units for those parts ? We haven't heard about those yet

Should I chime in orrrrr
 
Yeah, reading the article it seems like they're deducing it from what Furukawa said, but they've presented it as if he said it explicitly. The title is "Nintendo: No Switch 2 before April 2025", which is very misleading.
Oh, I only read the tweet but missed the article title, my bad.
 
Yeah, reading the article it seems like they're deducing it from what Furukawa said, but they've presented it as if he said it explicitly. The title is "Nintendo: No Switch 2 before April 2025", which is very misleading.
I recall reading the same for 2024 in 2023. Weβ€˜re really in a loop.
 
Where'd you get these numbers? I thought the only things we knew about the GPU were the shader cores, tensor cores and RT cores?
It's easy extrapolation off the number of SMs (CUDA, RT, Tensor Cores).

(RDNA2 has 2 Schedulers per CU and 32 Warps per CU. Meanwhile NVIDIA is literally double per SM. So, 4 Schedulers per SM but 48 Warps per SM)

Warps/Schedulers is actually a very interesting thing to dig into as it explains a lot about why some devices run into limits that seemingly can't be overcome versus some other hardware configs that look similar.

AKA "why the RX 6400 runs so much better than the 680/780M in AMD Handhelds even when they have very similar raw memory bandwidth and the latter have a latency advantage".

All 3 are 12CUs. But the RX 6400 has Infinity Cache, which is AMD's big way to allow the GPU to stall less. Which stalling is a big thing as it draws a lot of performance away.

This becomes more apparent because the number of warps (A metric for how much a GPU can send out to compute/calculate in a cycle) is fixed and extremely small with RDNA cards versus their NVIDIA counterparts. Schedulers help plan ahead for the Warps and well, Schedule things.

So the 12CU AMD Parts only have 384 Warps and 24 Schedulers. But when running the GPU "To the Redline" (As in everything getting hit in the GPU, every warp and scheduler allotted to a workload), the 680M/780M slow down to a crawl whenever a warp stalls (Be it from a misregister or the cache space to feed it being busy elsewhere.etc). Meanwhile Infinity Cache counteracts this as the raw cache size keeps every CU/Warp fed more often when running the GPU to the redline.

We can see this on the high end to a degree with RDNA2 vs Ampere at 1080p vs 4K. At 1080p the higher-end RDNA2 cards far ahead of the Ampere ones as per 128 Shaders, Infinity Cache makes the RDNA2 ones stall far less than Ampere. However once you hit 4K, the Infinity Cache gets overwhelmed, limiting what it can do to aid against stalling. Falling back on raw bandwidth which RDNA2 can't take as much advantage of (not to mention there just being less) versus Ampere. (Resulting in Ampere overtaking RDNA2 when running at higher resolutions._)

RDNA2 mitigates stalling/it's low warp count by effective bruteforce/maximizing the efficiency of the warps it can ship out. (Infinity Cache + High Clocks like I said. Things that Series S lacks entirely).

This is sort of why the RX 6400 and RX 6500 cards get surprisingly close to Series S's result in games like Alan Wake 2. Infinity Cache is making their success-rate per warp infinitely higher than Series S, and both are in the >2GHz clock range like the rest of Desktop RDNA2 . So it can do a lot more per CU and ship out a lot more warps in the same timespan of Series S. Allowing a 12 and 16CU GPU to run up to and match (or in some cases outright surpass) the 20CU Series S
 
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Darth did you look at the number of units for those parts ? We haven't heard about those yet

Should I chime in orrrrr
Feel free to chime in. I don't have tiered sub so don't see # of units, but I know others do and they said the numbers have been pretty consistent since what we have seen starting in September 2023.
 
It's exciting to see Switch 2 will not have similar bottlenecks that the Switch has had. The Tegra X1 has been extremely bottleneck by the memory bandwidth limitation, so seeing an outlook where that isn't the case is exciting. This pretty much trashes the likelihood of 8nm, no need for LPDDR5x if you could only clock the SOC at sub 1Ghz.
 
It's easy extrapolation off the number of SMs (CUDA, RT, Tensor Cores).

(RDNA2 has 2 Schedulers per CU and 32 Warps per CU. Meanwhile NVIDIA is literally double per SM. So, 4 Schedulers per SM and 64 Warps per SM)

Warps/Schedulers is actually a very interesting thing to dig into as it explains a lot about why some devices run into limits that seemingly can't be overcome versus some other hardware configs that look similar.

AKA "why the RX 6400 runs so much better than the 680/780M in AMD Handhelds even when they have very similar raw memory bandwidth and the latter have a latency advantage".

All 3 are 12CUs. But the RX 6400 has Infinity Cache, which is AMD's big way to allow the GPU to stall less. Which stalling is a big thing as it draws a lot of performance away.

This becomes more apparent because the number of warps (A metric for how much a GPU can send out to compute/calculate in a cycle) is fixed and extremely small with RDNA cards versus their NVIDIA counterparts. Schedulers help plan ahead for the Warps and well, Schedule things.

So the 12CU AMD Parts only have 384 Warps and 24 Schedulers. But when running the GPU "To the Redline" (As in everything getting hit in the GPU, every warp and scheduler allotted to a workload), the 680M/780M slow down to a crawl whenever a warp stalls (Be it from a misregister or the cache space to feed it being busy elsewhere.etc). Meanwhile Infinity Cache counteracts this as the raw cache size keeps every CU/Warp fed more often when running the GPU to the redline.

We can see this on the high end to a degree with RDNA2 vs Ampere at 1080p vs 4K. At 1080p the higher-end RDNA2 cards far ahead of the Ampere ones as per 128 Shaders, Infinity Cache makes the RDNA2 ones stall far less than Ampere. However once you hit 4K, the Infinity Cache gets overwhelmed, limiting what it can do to aid against stalling. Falling back on raw bandwidth which RDNA2 can't take as much advantage of (not to mention there just being less) versus Ampere. (Resulting in Ampere overtaking RDNA2 when running at higher resolutions._)

RDNA2 mitigates stalling/it's low warp count by effective bruteforce/maximizing the efficiency of the warps it can ship out. (Infinity Cache + High Clocks like I said. Things that Series S lacks entirely).

This is sort of why the RX 6400 and RX 6500 cards get surprisingly close to Series S's result in games like Alan Wake 2. Infinity Cache is making their success-rate per warp infinitely higher than Series S, and both are in the >2GHz clock range like the rest of Desktop RDNA2 . So it can do a lot more per CU and ship out a lot more warps in the same timespan of Series S. Allowing a 12 and 16CU GPU to run up to and match (or in some cases outright surpass) the 20CU Series S
This is a great post! Do you think if Nvidia were to increase the L2 cache for Drake, in theory it will improve its raster performance for Switch 2. I know Nvidia significantly increase the L2 cache for its Ada Lovelace GPUs
 
It’ll have been 3 years since Xenoblade 3 however, and XC3 was 2019 -> 2022. I think it’s fair to expect Xenoblade to show up year one, and do keep in mind that DLCs are often developed with a smaller team than the base game.
I think Xenoblade is off the table unless it's Xenoblade X getting a definitive edition or something. While the series isn't over, it's fairly safe to say that the series will be in brief hibernation until after they complete a few other projects in the meantime. I think the new IP is a bit more likely. If I had to guess, Xenoblade 4 might appear around 2028/29 or something.
 
This is a great post! Do you think if Nvidia were to increase the L2 cache for Drake, in theory it will improve its raster performance for Switch 2. I know Nvidia significantly increase the L2 cache for its Ada Lovelace GPUs
We have two option of L2 for GPU, 1MB or 4MB, both was mention, hopefully it will be 4MB, and also 8MB of L3 for CPU
 
When thinking about the MSRP of the Switch 2, you have to consider the historically weak yen. I don't think Nintendo is going to want to set a price that results in a massive number of Japanese Switch 2s being scalped for western markets, but they're also not going to want the yen price to be prohibitive for domestic buyers. For that reason I can't imagine them going higher than $399 USD.
 
Damn, it's going to be a sleepless night tonight, and I'll admit that I'm still excited about it, with all the data I've gotten today constantly stimulating my nerves, even though it's now 10:00 PM.
 
The Xenoblade games are a thing of beauty that have been achieved with low RAM. Imagine 3x more RAM available for the next Xenobloade game!

The new 3D Mario too, using full (most) of Switch 2 graphical capabilities.

And possibly Metroid Prime 4, but enhanced for Switch 2.

I hope all those happen during the reveal. Cannot wait!
Man I’m actually amazed at what Nintendo developers were able to achieve on the Switch.

Despite Sony and Xbox being more powerful than the Switch, I can faithfully say that Nintendo developers are gonna surprise us and give us games that looks and exceeded the PS5 and series x.

I think with games like Elden ring and Totk, we have reach a point in which people prefer stylised games. Also monolith are gonna cook and absolute feast for us.
 
I think Xenoblade is off the table unless it's Xenoblade X getting a definitive edition or something. While the series isn't over, it's fairly safe to say that the series will be in brief hibernation until after they complete a few other projects in the meantime. I think the new IP is a bit more likely. If I had to guess, Xenoblade 4 might appear around 2028/29 or something.
They'll announce X2 and do a remake of X in 2026.
 
When thinking about the MSRP of the Switch 2, you have to consider the historically weak yen. I don't think Nintendo is going to want to set a price that results in a massive number of Japanese Switch 2s being scalped for western markets, but they're also not going to want the yen price to be prohibitive for domestic buyers. For that reason I can't imagine them going higher than $399 USD.
Correct. Weak yen means exports are more desirable/profitable.

Weak yen doesn't put an upward pressure on MSRP for units being sold outside Japan, at least in countries where yen is weak against the other currency.
 
We have two option of L2 for GPU, 1MB or 4MB, both was mention, hopefully it will be 4MB, and also 8MB of L3 for CPU
I'm happy with 4 mb l3 for cpu, I think there's a real chance we get nothing. Consoles will typically cut down their cpus.

Either way we won't find out until a tear down.
 
It is a very forward thinking device. For comparison Google didn't upgrade to LPDDR5X on their Pixel line until late last year, the Switch 2 has the same RAM type and amount as the expensive Pixel 8 Pro. The Switch 2 will have better RAM than my current phone, the Pixel 7, which already feels quick and snappy. I really want Nintendo to just go beast mode with this device, there's literally nothing else like it on the hardware and software front.
I want to note that while Google Pixels are marketed as high end phones they are not high end phones when it comes to the Soc and other technical specs (and the dog shit modem), they are closer to upper midrange phones than a flagship.
 
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Please give us Xenoblade 1 through 3 first with all the settings maxed out, it would be absolutely dire to get this beast of a machine but for those games to be trapped in their current form. Let the shackles be released.
 
Looking at the specs we have at hand right now, i was trying to draw some possible price range of the Switch 2 and seeing what might fit. Of course i'm only comparing here, and phones and handhelds are different things of a similar family, but a lot of phones with similar RAM and ROM specs in the market right now seem to be priced around $500 to $650ish. Both the Asus Zenfone 10 and the realme GT2 Master Explorer (wild name for a phone) are inside that range with both sporting 12~16GB LPDDR5X modules with storage of 256~512GB of UFS3.1 (Zenfone 10 using the more advanced 4.0), all within that price range.

That is considering that these phones have full on OLED, 120Hz+ screens (the Zenfone, which is the most expensive of the bunch, has an entire 144Hz HDR10+ screen), multiple camera setups, 5G and absolute bleeding edge SoC tech that increases the pricing significantly. It's a safe guess in my opinion to say that the Switch 2 will have none of that, using more modest components, and therefore being able to be priced more competitively within it. From a strategic standpoint as well, Nintendo is fully aware of the challenges employed in order to sucessfully transfer (or at least, interest) the playerbase from the Switch 1 to the 2 and keep good selling numbers throughout. In my conclusion, taking in sight the price of things such as RAM, storage, screen (which likely isn't going to be anything fantastic, like an OLED) and chipset (which although good, is not bleeding edge, like a Snapdragon Gen 2/3 on the phones, for example), i'd guess they will not be pricing this higher than $550. Unless they either employ some expensive gimmick, or something like the build/SoC ends up being pricier than expected, i really don't see it going that much higher.

Those devices also wouldn't be made in nearly the same scale as Switch 2. Nintendo has previously stated they wanted amply supply it's fair to assume at least 10 million units in the first 6 months would be rolled out.

I wonder if Nintendo at all will eat loss on this device to ensure releasing a new Switch that a larger percentage of consumers would be willing to upgrade to. I mean i don't think Nintendo would ever sell it for $500-550 even if that is what it cost them to manufacture it. Meaning they would sell it at a loss instead.

I think they will, at launch.
 
This is a great post! Do you think if Nvidia were to increase the L2 cache for Drake, in theory it will improve its raster performance for Switch 2. I know Nvidia significantly increase the L2 cache for its Ada Lovelace GPUs
Well with the shipping info indicating that T239/Drake is on "X30" revision but has only taped out once we can't know if they've adjusted it since the big NVIDIA hack data years ago.

There's a chance they updated to Lovelace and ergo granted it the inflated L2. But best to assume it's the same config with features found in the NVN2 Leak so far (with logical support for things like Ray Reconstruction or FSR3-FG because those are purely in software and run on any RTX card).

But, the thing is though, T239 versus 680M/780M sort of is a easy win for T239 becuase of the raw warp-count difference.

T239 has 576 Warps and 48 Schedulers. So when giving it the same workload as the 680M/780M, sure they may stall at similar amounts or maybe even T239 may have more of the warps hit a stall. But the raw difference in warp count (And Schedulers able to plan ahead and allocate work quickly), means it can spin up another warp far faster to complete the work the stalled warp should've done.

So the question becomes. Does 576 Ampere Warps overall ship out more successful results than the 384 Infinity Cache-assisted Warps in the RX 6400? (12SM vs 12CU again).
 
I think that semiconductor supply issues started happening during Covid, and then it took some time after Covid restrictions were ended for semiconductor supply issues to start being resolved.

Ah yeah, so Furukawa is referring to 2021, which indeed constrained all semiconductor supply. Late 2022 is when most of them recovered.

2020 is when NVIDIA officially admitted to have problems with getting enough ampere chips out there, citing poor yields and
2021 is when the shortages as prolonged officially communicated by NVIDIA [Ampere] and they expected them to recover in mid-2022 (2023 is when it mostly recovered) and making commitment to invest in long-term supply obligations, but this is likely for Samsung as the chart in the article shows a significant dropoff after 2023. Ada launched in 2022, starting with the RTX 4090 in November however early 2022 NVIDIA reportedly invested $10 billion securing for capacity at TSMC. Ampere slowly faded out of production and stock for consumer GPUs as more Ada models came out and as of now mostly lower-end GPUs and mobile GPUs are present on the consumer side. Most Ada GPUs were priced higher as process node expenses are higher.

Other interesting side-notes;

2023 is when Sony mentioned that the supply for the PS5 will stabilize and shortages are over [TSMC N6].
TSMC N4C is going to be available with volume production starts in 2025 being cheaper and better yield variant for N4P.

Well this was a fun trip, but yup it's just a general statement.

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I want to note that while Google Pixels are marketed as high end phones they are not high end phones when it comes to the Soc and other technical specs (and the dog shit modem), they are closers to upper midrange phones than a flagship.
Yeah less of a statement about the Pixel line and more of how new LPDDR5X is, I think even Apple's M3 chip did not use LPDDR5X, the M4 will and that's releasing in a few days.
 
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oh...

OH...

OH MY GOD

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It's exciting to see Switch 2 will not have similar bottlenecks that the Switch has had. The Tegra X1 has been extremely bottleneck by the memory bandwidth limitation, so seeing an outlook where that isn't the case is exciting. This pretty much trashes the likelihood of 8nm, no need for LPDDR5x if you could only clock the SOC at sub 1Ghz.

Well, more bandwidth is always more better, even if you don't strictly need it.

The one thing which has me thinking this points more towards 4N is that Nvidia has an LPDDR5X memory controller that they could use for this; the one used on Grace. Grace taped out at around the same time as T239, and is manufactured on 4N. Admittedly it's not impossible that they separately developed a LPDDR5X controller for 8nm (or any other manufacturing process), but it does line up with my prior expectations on 4N and LPDDR5X.
 
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I don't understand a damn thing from this post, but judging by everyone else's reaction to this post, I am very excited.

Thank you LiC, LuigiBlood, and everyone else for all of your contributions in this thread!
 
Saw some mentions a few pages back of the RAM actually being a multiple of 6 (ie 6, 12, 18 or 24). Now obviously I doubt they'd go 18gb of RAM or above, so that leaves 6 and 12. So what makes everyone do confident it's 12 and not 6? Not trying to be a downer but I didn't get the explanations from before, maybe that's on me for scrolling too fast.
 
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