StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Steve]

Did.. You just confirm gta6?

Jk.

GTA6 dream somehow still lives with all these reports.

But I’m actually excited seeing developers working on an entirely different architecture, compare to the similar PS5 and Xbox.

We might see some port (especially PS4) run similarly or even better. I’m also intrigued seeing our first impossible port, since the Witcher 3 on switch was quite a nice experience (I’m saying this as someone who completely beating the game)

 

[PedroNavajas]

Not when we proved they will use 6 GB chips.

It's 6,12.18.24 etch thats the theoretical possibilities.

I would discard 18, 30,... as that would eliminate dual (Quad?) channel. Unless they do something wonky like XBSX with an slower RAM chip.

12 is all but confirmed... (Please be 24!....)

 

[Lugia667]

when are we getting the English Q&A? I want to rely on more than just google translate

 

[Enpsty]

The reason for the delay is to launch in the same day as GTA6. You know it's true. You know it.

 

[darthdiablo]

I would discard 18, 30,... as that would eliminate dual (Quad?) channel. Unless they do something wonky like XBSX with an slower RAM chip.

12 is all but confirmed... (Please be 24!....)

I asked about 12GB - it's a 100% thing, @redmutineer75 explained to me that there was leak saying 128-bit bus, and a single 6GB module has 64 bit bus, which makes it 2 modules (6GB x 2)

 

[Concernt]

GTA6 dream somehow still lives with all these reports.

But I’m actually excited seeing developers working on an entirely different architecture, compare to the similar PS5 and Xbox.

We might see some port (especially PS4) run similarly or even better. I’m also intrigued seeing our first impossible port, since the Witcher 3 on switch was quite a nice experience (I’m saying this as someone who completely beating the game)

If a PS4 port on Switch next doesn't run better, that's a poor job.

I would go so far as to say we could indeed see a PS5 port run "better" - being overall similar with a higher output resolution thanks to DLSS.

 

[PedroNavajas]

I asked about 12GB - it's a 100% thing, @redmutineer75 explained to me that there was leak saying 128-bit bus, and a single 6GB module has 64 bit bus, which makes it 2 modules (6GB x 2)

An the fact that they went for fast RAM suggest high clocks on the chip itself.

 

[Simba1]

People were questioning how the revealed specs would impact a potential $400-450 pricepoint. I compared with mass market mobile devices that have that RAM type and storage to see a price ballpark. The point of my post is that the bells and whistles on a phone would drive up the cost.

I've already made comparisons with the Steam Deck pages ago. The base OLED Steam Deck is $550 with 16 GB LPDDR5 RAM and 512 GB NVME SSD with an OLED HDR 90 Hz display.

I hear you, but isn't again better comparison with entry lower price point deck, LCD model thats $399 and has 16GB RAM and 256GB SSD.

 

[Jake]

Usually MicroSD readers on these things are "retrocompatible". Meaning, you can use a very old MicroSD on a very new reader, it just won't be super fast because it will be held back by the own MicroSD's tech limitations. You should be fine with the one you have

Ok, I have a 512 GB microSD on my Switch right now. Once Switch 2 is released next year, I’ll probably just use my microSD to transfer my Switch 1 games over, then get one of the SD Express cards.

 

[Langstonboy]

People are just comparing the number but as far as performance is concerned, having enough ram to store everything you need is better than faster ram. Even at half the speed, reading from ram is still 100 times faster than reading from storage to swap in the data you need. At least that was the case before SSD.



The thing with expansion storage is that we don’t know what it will be. SD cards are too slow compared to UFS and only good for cold storage. The other options are either too expensive, too big, too energy consuming, and/or too dead. The rumored SDexpress on the expensive side. Hopefully economy of scale will bring the price down but probably never at the same level as M2 SSD.

We don’t know the price of Micro SD Express cards yet (I’m guess much more expensive than the dirt cheap crappy slow Micro SD so like $60 for 256GB and like $100 for 512GB)

 

[Steve]

If a PS4 port on Switch next doesn't run better, that's a poor job.

I would go so far as to say we could indeed see a PS5 port run "better" - being overall similar with a higher output resolution thanks to DLSS.

True, we have also seen instances of Switch port being better than the PS4 version, mostly because it has modern techniques architecture.

A good example would be Alien isolation. I’m extremely positive since Nvidia architecture is vastly different compared to AMD.

 

[Dakhil]

LPDDR5X is more efficient per clock, no?

Not necessarily.

Any power efficiency improvements comes strictly from using a newer process node (e.g. Samsung's 1z (15 nm*) process node for LPDDR5 vs Samsung's 14 nm* process node for LPDDR5X).

And LPDDR5 modules are already being fabricated using the same process node used for the fabrication of LPDDR5X modules when comparing the Steam Deck with the Steam Deck OLED.

* → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies

 

[Serif]

I hear you, but isn't again better comparison with entry lower price point deck, LCD model thats $399 and has 16GB RAM and 256GB SSD.

That model was price dropped so I'm hesitant to make a comparison there. Unfortunately I purchased it a few weeks before they price dropped it for $450. :/ And it was already price dropped to $450.

 

[Giancarlo]

if there is a microphone in the joycon, I wonder if we would see the return of Just Sing

a microphone on Switch sucessor controllers, make me think, a new Nintendogs is coming

 

[ertaboy356b]

Ya, I agree. Anything else would be very surprising.

1 x 6 for 6GB?
Likely 8 would be cheaper (2 x 4GB)

3 x 6 for 18GB?
I'm guessing would be cost prohibitive and if they wanted to go that high would be a 2 x 8 setup.

A 3x6 set up would break DDR speed boost.

 

[YolkFolk]

I would go so far as to say we could indeed see a PS5 port run "better" - being overall similar with a higher output resolution thanks to DLSS.

Let’s not get too overexcited

All sounds great though.

 

[darthdiablo]

An the fact that they went for fast RAM suggest high clocks on the chip itself.

I am not as educated as some here are on relationship between SoC (or CPU) clock speed and RAM speed, but isn't SoC/CPU normally clocked at much higher speed than RAM?

Making me think RAM speed won't really tell us anything about SoC/CPU clock speeds.

 

[Hermii]

Not necessarily. Any power efficiency improvements comes strictly from using a newer process node. And there are already LPDDR5 modules being fabricated using the same process node LPDDR5X modules are being fabricated on as shown with the Steam Deck OLED.

Im probably misunderstanding the chart, but it says both 6400Mbps and 8533Mbps are max 1,1V. That would suggest the 8533 one is more efficient per clock?

 

[kvetcha]

Given the Steam Deck limits the memory bandwidth available to the CPU to 25 GB/s to prioritise GPU bandwidth, it may be possible to use a CPU bandwidth estimate to 'work back' to the GPU's reserved bandwidth, and thus, its clock speed.
Based on Oldpuck's Ampere bandwidth/TFLOP chart, we can assume an Ampere GPU has on average 25.38 GB/s per TFLOP
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[Necroxid]

That would translate in 430 in Europe, am I right?

Yeah but keep in mind that inflation plays a role, so they could adjust the price as they would see fit (considering also the weak yen)

I hear you, but isn't again better comparison with entry lower price point deck, LCD model thats $399 and has 16GB RAM and 256GB SSD.

How much usable RAM for games has SD? Since I saw speculation about 11GB for Switch Next

 

[PedroNavajas]

I am not as educated as some here are on relationship between SoC (or CPU) clock speed and RAM speed, but isn't SoC/CPU normally clocked at much higher speed than RAM?

Making me think RAM speed won't really tell us anything about SoC/CPU clock speeds.

That's why I said a "suggestion". But my reasoning is that: let's say they were aiming for the lower end of power, a bit lower than Steam Deck. Then it makes little sense to go for more expensive, faster RAM than what the SD has.

It also suggests that the design is fairly new and not something they shelved in 2021 for a delayed release.

 

[GPKs3]

We might see some port (especially PS4) run similarly or even better. I’m also intrigued seeing our first impossible port, since the Witcher 3 on switch was quite a nice experience (I’m saying this as someone who completely beating the game)

Didn’t this already happen on the current Switch? I believe Alien Isolation looks and runs better than the PS4 version. I remember a comparison video showing better AA on the Switch version. Granted, I believe this was achieved with a patch.

 

[NZZN]

Gonna be honest - I personally think it's just a coincidence that the TFLOPs match up exactly, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if Nvidiatendo had used this same equation for a ballpark bandwidth estimate

 

[darthdiablo]

Didn’t this already happen on the current Switch? I believe Alien Isolation looks and runs better than the PS4 version. I remember a comparison video showing better AA on the Switch version. Granted, I believe this was achieved with a patch.

Yup, the comparison was done by DF guys

 

[Switcharoo]

The reason for the delay is to launch in the same day as GTA6. You know it's true. You know it.

Doesn't sound like a great idea. Unless they are launching it on Switch 2 as well. We'll know GTA 6's approximate release window at TTWO's Fiscal Earnings Call on May 16th to deduce if it is still coming by March 2025 or a bit later.

 

[RennanNT]

I am not as educated as some here are on relationship between SoC (or CPU) clock speed and RAM speed, but isn't SoC/CPU normally clocked at much higher speed than RAM?

Making me think RAM speed won't really tell us anything about SoC/CPU clock speeds.

RAM bandwidth is how fast you can feed data to the CPU/GPU. The faster the CPU/GPU gets, the more bandwidth they need, specially the GPU.

The expectations here, based on desktop GPUs, is that LPDDR5 is enough for a 3~3.4TF GPU. Even though it's not a confirmation, Nintendo using 5X modules (which should be more expensive than 5) raises the expectations for docked clocks/performance to something 5 couldn't handle well.

 

[Simbinha]

Looking at the specs we have at hand right now, i was trying to draw some possible price range of the Switch 2 and seeing what might fit. Of course i'm only comparing here, and phones and handhelds are different things of a similar family, but a lot of phones with similar RAM and ROM specs in the market right now seem to be priced around $500 to $650ish. Both the Asus Zenfone 10 and the realme GT2 Master Explorer (wild name for a phone) are inside that range with both sporting 12~16GB LPDDR5X modules with storage of 256~512GB of UFS3.1 (Zenfone 10 using the more advanced 4.0), all within that price range.

That is considering that these phones have full on OLED, 120Hz+ screens (the Zenfone, which is the most expensive of the bunch, has an entire 144Hz HDR10+ screen), multiple camera setups, 5G and absolute bleeding edge SoC tech that increases the pricing significantly. It's a safe guess in my opinion to say that the Switch 2 will have none of that, using more modest components, and therefore being able to be priced more competitively within it. From a strategic standpoint as well, Nintendo is fully aware of the challenges employed in order to sucessfully transfer (or at least, interest) the playerbase from the Switch 1 to the 2 and keep good selling numbers throughout. In my conclusion, taking in sight the price of things such as RAM, storage, screen (which likely isn't going to be anything fantastic, like an OLED) and chipset (which although good, is not bleeding edge, like a Snapdragon Gen 2/3 on the phones, for example), i'd guess they will not be pricing this higher than $550. Unless they either employ some expensive gimmick, or something like the build/SoC ends up being pricier than expected, i really don't see it going that much higher.

 

[darthdiablo]

RAM bandwidth is how fast you can feed data to the CPU/GPU. The faster the CPU/GPU gets, the more bandwidth they need, specially the GPU.

The expectations here, based on desktop GPUs, is that LPDDR5 is enough for a 3~3.4TF GPU. Even though it's not a confirmation, Nintendo using 5X modules (which should be more expensive than 5) raises the expectations for docked clocks/performance to something 5 couldn't handle well.

Got it makes sense.

WIth 5X giving upwards pressure on clock speed, I think that would also lean stronger toward 4N. However I'm also worried about the mention of 2 fans on the dock unit, but maybe a TSMC 4N system would have benefited from 2 fan setup as well.

 

[barruma]

The more I think about it the more "magnets" sounds like a Nintendo thing to do - pretty much confirmed now by the recent findings. Am I wrong in thinking that with the correct setup Nintendo can prevent users from placing the left join coin on the right side of the console and vice versa? This would also help to potentially "join" the two joy cons without needing a support center piece?

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Got it makes sense.

WIth 5X giving upwards pressure on clock speed, I think that would also lean stronger toward 4N. However I'm also worried about the mention of 2 fans on the dock unit, but maybe a TSMC 4N system would have benefited from 2 fan setup as well.

I've privately and after some discussion decided that these two fans have a very limited impact for cooling in docked mode, so this doesn't tell me much more than that, and based on the approximate size of the switch2 as it is known, I think the 4N is a real possibility.

 

[Dekuman]

The more I think about it the more "magnets" sounds like a Nintendo thing to do - pretty much confirmed now by the recent findings. Am I wrong in thinking that with the correct setup Nintendo can prevent users from placing the left join coin on the right side of the console and vice versa? This would also help to potentially "join" the two joy cons without needing a support center piece?

i think it would make it a bit more robust, no rails needed. but i think you'd still want a centre piece to get the overall size up to a normal controller. unless the joycons are somehow massive, a slimmed down centre piece to account for the joycons being potentially slightly bigger is probably still needed.

 

[ertaboy356b]

Yeah but keep in mind that inflation plays a role, so they could adjust the price as they would see fit (considering also the weak yen)

How much usable RAM for games has SD? Since I saw speculation about 11GB for Switch Next

Steam Deck does not reserve ram. It's a PC so it will do multipurpose things.

 

[Serif]

Didn’t this already happen on the current Switch? I believe Alien Isolation looks and runs better than the PS4 version. I remember a comparison video showing better AA on the Switch version. Granted, I believe this was achieved with a patch.

Nier Automata also runs at a reconstructed 1080p 30 FPS versus PS4 sub 1080p 60 FPS. This time the reconstruction will be performed by a reliable AI algorithm so I expect the average image quality of Switch 2 games to be great even if running at lower settings or half the framerate than the PS5 equivalent.

 

[Danny]

RAM bandwidth is how fast you can feed data to the CPU/GPU. The faster the CPU/GPU gets, the more bandwidth they need, specially the GPU.

The expectations here, based on desktop GPUs, is that LPDDR5 is enough for a 3~3.4TF GPU. Even though it's not a confirmation, Nintendo using 5X modules (which should be more expensive than 5) raises the expectations for docked clocks/performance to something 5 couldn't handle well.

For the first time we have some real info nuggets that could point to a 4nm node.

A slim Switch 2 device.

Fast RAM Bandwith.

Not at all the beefy, sluggish monster that would point more towards 8nm node.

 

[LoneRanger]

Price is something very simple to guess.

It will be at least $100 more expensive than OLED model.

So, $450 or more.

 

[BDGAME]

To add some context, the RAM part is this one from Micron, which is a 6GB 7500MT/s 64-bit part. They list it as LPDDR5, but 7500MT/s is a LPDDR5X speed, so that may be just how they list things. With a 128-bit bus, two of these parts would give us 12GB of RAM operating at a peak of 120GB/s.

The UFS is a Kioxia part labelled THGJFGT1E45BAILHW0. They don't have a specific page for it, but both Mouser and Jak Electronics list it as a 256GB UFS 3.1 part. Kioxia's website lists a THGJFGT1E45BAIP as a 256GB UFS 3.1, so it may be a revised version of that part.

In both cases, there's a good chance that Nintendo will be sourcing from multiple suppliers, but they'd all match these specs.

Edit: Peak read speeds for UFS 3.1 should be close to 2GB/s, although with both game cards and external storage almost certainly lower than that, I don't know if games could quite use it. Still, it definitely shouldn't be a bottleneck.

Thanks for these details. That machine is taking form now.

With 120 GB/s on dock, it can be something like 105 GB/s on portable, what is more than the 88 GB/s of original Deck, or even the 102 from better models. I search the Rog Ally has only 51.20 GB/s, is that true?

The UFS 3.1 speed is the best part. 2 GB/s is 4x faster than Steam Deck internal memory and 2x faster than Steam Deck's SSD. I understand that 2 GB/s is a theoretical peak, but even if it is slower, it will be a lot fast than DECK in the end. It Is not as fast than the 4 GB/s of Rog Ally SSD, but it is fast enough to justify the Zelda BoTW demo running at 4K with Zero LOAD when use teleport.

We can't forgot that Switch 2 will have a internal fast memory compressing/decompressing what will help to have more data traffic and a better result in the end.

 

[Concernt]

Let’s not get too overexcited

All sounds great though.

Optimistic is not the antithesis of realistic.

On a serious note, I'll 100% admit in any situation where this could occur, the image quality would most likely be degraded compared to PS5, especially in motion.

But at the same time, we can't deny how competitive this device appears to be with the home consoles.

 

[Hermii]

I've privately and after some discussion decided that these two fans have a very limited impact for cooling in docked mode, so this doesn't tell me much more than that, and based on the approximate size of the switch2 as it is known, I think the 4N is a real possibility.

I mean, what is the second fan there for if it has a limited impact on cooling?

 

[Gerald]

Did.. You just confirm gta6?

Jk.

Ik it might sounds wild, but is really possibly that it will be port for Switch 2, but after PS5 and Xbox Series X|S premiere what is 100% piority for Roxkstar and they put full 100% effort in them

 

[darthdiablo]

Price is something very simple to guess.

It will be at least $100 more expensive than OLED model.

So, $450 or more.

OLED won't remain $350 when Switch 2 launches (maybe it will, but I doubt it).

Nintendo I trust won't go over $399. Go higher, then the Switch 2 would not really be accessible for majority of people (not in their budget). $399 is already a high price point to begin with.

 

[Dakhil]

Im probably misunderstanding the chart, but it says both 6400Mbps and 8533Mbps are max 1,1V. That would suggest the 8533 one is more efficient per clock?

JEDEC mention the voltage is variable. But I don't think that voltage is necessarily related to power efficiency, but rather the voltage needed to power on the RAM modules.

I think VDDQ is more closely related to power efficiency, going by JEDEC's definition of VDDQ. And VDDQ for both is 0.6 V.

But the same article also mentioned the following:

It's to be noted, that we haven’t heard much about power efficiency improvements of the new LP5X standard, so I assume that we'll be relying on DRAM vendors to improve power efficiency via more advanced manufacturing nodes to keep total power usage inside of devices in check.

 

[Danny]

Looking at the specs we have at hand right now, i was trying to draw some possible price range of the Switch 2 and seeing what might fit. Of course i'm only comparing here, and phones and handhelds are different things of a similar family, but a lot of phones with similar RAM and ROM specs in the market right now seem to be priced around $500 to $650ish. Both the Asus Zenfone 10 and the realme GT2 Master Explorer (wild name for a phone) are inside that range with both sporting 12~16GB LPDDR5X modules with storage of 256~512GB of UFS3.1 (Zenfone 10 using the more advanced 4.0), all within that price range.

That is considering that these phones have full on OLED, 120Hz+ screens (the Zenfone, which is the most expensive of the bunch, has an entire 144Hz HDR10+ screen), multiple camera setups, 5G and absolute bleeding edge SoC tech that increases the pricing significantly. It's a safe guess in my opinion to say that the Switch 2 will have none of that, using more modest components, and therefore being able to be priced more competitively within it. From a strategic standpoint as well, Nintendo is fully aware of the challenges employed in order to sucessfully transfer (or at least, interest) the playerbase from the Switch 1 to the 2 and keep good selling numbers throughout. In my conclusion, taking in sight the price of things such as RAM, storage, screen (which likely isn't going to be anything fantastic, like an OLED) and chipset (which although good, is not bleeding edge, like a Snapdragon Gen 2/3 on the phones, for example), i'd guess they will not be pricing this higher than $550. Unless they either employ some expensive gimmick, or something like the build/SoC ends up being pricier than expected, i really don't see it going that much higher.

I wonder if Nintendo at all will eat loss on this device to ensure releasing a new Switch that a larger percentage of consumers would be willing to upgrade to. I mean i don't think Nintendo would ever sell it for $500-550 even if that is what it cost them to manufacture it. Meaning they would sell it at a loss instead.

 

[casualreader]

I can speak JP. Can confirm that he basically just said it'd be appropriate to call it the successor to the Switch.
For what it's worth, keep in mind nearly the same language was used to describe the Wii U:

Thank you, so that clarifies it somehow.

 

[Gerald]

Price is something very simple to guess.

It will be at least $100 more expensive than OLED model.

So, $450 or more.

$399-449, no more than 449

 

[Truno]

lol

 

[goombaicebro]

lol

the same outlet that gave us christopher "nintendo has no games after tears of the kingdom" dring

 

[Hermii]

lol

I don't know if that's the correct conclusion to make.

 

[YolkFolk]

Optimistic is not the antithesis of realistic.

On a serious note, I'll 100% admit in any situation where this could occur, the image quality would most likely be degraded compared to PS5, especially in motion.

But at the same time, we can't deny how competitive this device appears to be with the home consoles.

Imagine when Xenoblade gameplay is shown at the full reveal event…

 

[navierStokes]

"As for supply of the Nintendo Switch successor console... at this point we are not seeing semiconductor supply issues like the ones that were happening until the year before last, and we do not anticipate that semiconductor supply will present a major problem for the launch of the console," Furukawa said.

Until the year before last
Any idea which semiconductor suplly issue he could be referring to specifically?
I know that TSMC nodes were constrained as Ada cards were coming out slowly, but AMD had no issue with RDNA2 (+ the consoles). Moreover, Samsung didn't have much issues iirc (specifically the Ampere cards).
I'm just going by memory here, so maybe there's something that could be speculated around here if the translation is accurate

 

[Danny]

lol

That is clickbait, Nintendo can easily just update their hardware forecast after they reveal the Switch 2.

Until the year before last
Any idea which semiconductor suplly issue he could be referring to specifically?

I think that semiconductor supply issues started happening during Covid, and then it took some time after Covid restrictions were ended for semiconductor supply issues to start being resolved.