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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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GriffMendez said:
I hear you. I forget what game, but there is a port that was poorly received, and is getting a massive overhaul/re-release on Switch, with those who previously purchased it getting the new version free.
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Yup, Ark: Ultimate Survivor Edition

I hope games that are either getting next-gen versions or sequels (Skyrim Anniversary, Witcher, Bloodstained) have very extensive enhancements. Bloodstained especially :cautious:
 
JRPGHurtsWallet said:
I agree with this. Switch sales are still going strong. They won't cannibalize themselves six months out. Three months is the sweet spot.
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I'm also thinking of the upcoming share split (October), and the FY (ending March 31, 2023) expected decline.

If a successor/upgrade was releasing before March 31, wouldn't they expect it to raise sales, instead of expecting them to drop?
 
GriffMendez said:
If a successor/upgrade was releasing before March 31, wouldn't they expect it to raise sales, instead of expecting them to drop?
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If it launches late in the FY and they are not expecting to be able to ship a lot of consoles during the launch period, it would drop. It's a really small drop so it's possible still that they launch a new console.
 
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Chrono said:
They can adjust their forecasts throughout the year.
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They literally announced a 10-for-1 stock split, taking place in October. I just don't see how they can say the things they've said, and make the moves they've made - recently - when they had a switch successor imminent. I think next summer launch, and not spring.
 
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GriffMendez said:
Wii U had cooled off soon after it launched. Switch being announced gave Nintendo life. They won't announce a Switch successor, or upgrade, six months in advance. Maybe a Lite OLED for holiday. No word of an upgrade/successor until it's a month or two from release.
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Sorry, but you're thinking backwards.

Whatever they chose it will be based on what they expect to be the best marketing cycle they can get for the successor. Those 3 extra months will cost them 2~5 million units from the Switch, which is nothing compared to making sure the successor a success. And that's before accounting most of those 2~5 million will likely buy the successor instead.

Also, the 3DS was announced 12 months before launch and at the end of a fiscal year the DS sold 27 mi units (higher than any other console peak until the Switch). Saying there's no chance is ignoring several precedents from Nintendo and other manufacturers.
 
RennanNT said:
Sorry, but you're thinking backwards.

Whatever they chose it will be based on what they expect to be the best marketing cycle they can get for the successor. Those 3 extra months will cost them 2~5 million units from the Switch, which is nothing compared to making sure the successor a success. And that's before accounting most of those 2~5 million will likely buy the successor instead.

Also, the 3DS was announced 12 months before launch and at the end of a fiscal year the DS sold 27 mi units (higher than any other console peak until the Switch). Saying there's no chance is ignoring several precedents from Nintendo and other manufacturers.
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I've worked in marketing for everything from Healthcare to higher education to media empires such as NBCUniversal and AOL/TimeWarner. I can't wrap my head around the proposed marketing strategies I see here. Lol.

Fun to read, though. Looking forward to checking back in later. Cheers all!
 
Serif said:
Yup, Ark: Ultimate Survivor Edition

I hope games that are either getting next-gen versions or sequels (Skyrim Anniversary, Witcher, Bloodstained) have very extensive enhancements. Bloodstained especially :cautious:
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Especially Skyrim, since the Switch version isn't the Special Edition and therefore is not upgradeable to the Anniversary Edition.

The Switch edition is very good for being a custom version of the OG Skyrim with motion controls and HD rumble features that aren't present in any other edition, so I don't know if Bethesda would release the remastered Special/Anniversary Edition for the same console. May be Fallout 4?

...I can't say enough that I don't like the anniversary edition content lol, it's so evident that is not made by Bethesda and breaks immersion for me.
 
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Stock split is just going to make it easier to invest in Nintendo by making each share cheaper. It could make Nintendo more valuable as smaller investors potentially snap up extra shares sold by the current shareholders but the value per share is 1/10th of the share at split but could then go up or down after the split. It shouldn't have any relevance to their strategic announcements.
 
karmitt said:
He was saying this back in 2021, and his tune changed to be pretty pessimistic after the OLED hit.

Interesting that he’s pivoted back to it. I’m assuming he’s probably not heard anything new, and the recent commotion has got him thinking maybe the original findings were correct.
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Heres' Grubb from May talking about the switch successor, he's saying "by march 2024" then talks about nintendo releasing games for switch in the first half of the year and then holding back for release in the second half. Overall it sounded more like late 23/early 24 in this interview (but it all is clearly just his speculation). Here (timestamped):
 
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I can't get over the hurdle of Nintendo releasing more live service type games or DLC if a new model is on the rise. I get it, back compat, but wouldn't they want to use software to push more hardware? Splatoon 3 and MK DLC are prime examples of what would potentially be used to push new hardware(Splatoon 3 moreso). If Splatoon 3 was a crossgen release, then they would maximize their software output for the game, hypothetically speaking. I think BOTW2 or a new Mario crossgen game make the most sense to release with new hardware.

I dunno, I'm just thinking out loud but I think 2022 is definitely off the table.
 
kimbo99 said:
I can't get over the hurdle of Nintendo releasing more live service type games or DLC if a new model is on the rise. I get it, back compat, but wouldn't they want to use software to push more hardware? Splatoon 3 and MK DLC are prime examples of what would potentially be used to push new hardware(Splatoon 3 moreso). If Splatoon 3 was a crossgen release, then they would maximize their software output for the game, hypothetically speaking. I think BOTW2 or a new Mario crossgen game make the most sense to release with new hardware.

I dunno, I'm just thinking out loud but I think 2022 is definitely off the table.
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New Nintendo 3DS launched alongside or soon after Super Smash Bros. 4, which had a prolonged support period of patches and DLC. If anything it adds fuel to the fire.
 
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kimbo99 said:
I can't get over the hurdle of Nintendo releasing more live service type games or DLC if a new model is on the rise. I get it, back compat, but wouldn't they want to use software to push more hardware? Splatoon 3 and MK DLC are prime examples of what would potentially be used to push new hardware(Splatoon 3 moreso). If Splatoon 3 was a crossgen release, then they would maximize their software output for the game, hypothetically speaking. I think BOTW2 or a new Mario crossgen game make the most sense to release with new hardware.

I dunno, I'm just thinking out loud but I think 2022 is definitely off the table.
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The issue with this analysis is the assumption that this new device is being treated like a new gen, when literally every rumor and report we've gotten about it suggests it will not be.

It will have a generational leap in power, but Nintendo seemingly wants to market it as a revision, like the new 3DS or GBC.
 
kimbo99 said:
I can't get over the hurdle of Nintendo releasing more live service type games or DLC if a new model is on the rise. I get it, back compat, but wouldn't they want to use software to push more hardware? Splatoon 3 and MK DLC are prime examples of what would potentially be used to push new hardware(Splatoon 3 moreso). If Splatoon 3 was a crossgen release, then they would maximize their software output for the game, hypothetically speaking. I think BOTW2 or a new Mario crossgen game make the most sense to release with new hardware.

I dunno, I'm just thinking out loud but I think 2022 is definitely off the table.
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service games are supposed to exist independently of hardware. why people would want to play them on new systems is the same reason why PS5 versions of games outsell PS4 versions of games: the early buyers know the benefits and wants that. Splatoon 3 in 4K is a selling point to those that know the difference. BotW2 in 4K and 60fps is a very noticeable selling point even to the casual consumer too
 
kimbo99 said:
I can't get over the hurdle of Nintendo releasing more live service type games or DLC if a new model is on the rise. I get it, back compat, but wouldn't they want to use software to push more hardware? Splatoon 3 and MK DLC are prime examples of what would potentially be used to push new hardware(Splatoon 3 moreso). If Splatoon 3 was a crossgen release, then they would maximize their software output for the game, hypothetically speaking. I think BOTW2 or a new Mario crossgen game make the most sense to release with new hardware.

I dunno, I'm just thinking out loud but I think 2022 is definitely off the table.
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Honestly it would probably behoove Nintendo to start thinking about making certain franchises of theirs long term gaas type models:
  • Pokémon
  • Animal Crossing
  • Mario Kart
  • Smash
  • Mario Sports
  • Mario Party
  • Splatoon
The only issue with doing that & making new entries in their bigger/medium sized ips is they don’t have the manpower necessary, currently, to do so. I would guess Nintendo would at minimum need to be the size of Ubisoft to feel comfortable with having dedicated teams to the franchises above while still employing their development model.
 
GriffMendez said:
I've worked in marketing for everything from Healthcare to higher education to media empires such as NBCUniversal and AOL/TimeWarner. I can't wrap my head around the proposed marketing strategies I see here. Lol.
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Then the gap here is probably from you applying logic from other areas, assuming its a one size fits all logic.

You sounded very sure that they won't announce a successor until 1~2 months before launch, but I can't think of a single console successor which was released just 1 or 2 months after announcement like you proposed. Even Switch revisions like the Lite took a little more than that. Which means your opinion hasn't been aligned with whoever has been in charge of marketing on Nintendo, Playstation or XBox so far.

Maybe they hired idiots or maybe, just maybe, they're accounting unique characteristics of the console market you aren't. For example:
  • Main profit streams are heavily dependents for years of a single product success
  • If that product fails, it's really hard and costly to salvage or replace it in a short time
  • Someone buying a successor is highly preferred over the current product because software support (and thus software sales) will heavily decline after a couple years for the later.
 
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PS4 Pro was announced September and released in November and the N3DS was august for an October launch (about 6 weeks).

I wasn’t sure to use this example since you said successor but then used the Lite….
RennanNT said:
Then the gap here is probably from you applying logic from other areas, assuming its a one size fits all logic.

You sounded very sure that they won't announce a successor until 1~2 months before launch, but I can't think of a single console successor which was released just 1 or 2 months after announcement like you proposed. Even the Switch Lite was a little more than that. Which means your opinion hasn't been aligned with whoever has been in charge of marketing on Nintendo, Playstation or XBox so far.

Maybe they hired idiots or maybe, just maybe, they're accounting unique characteristics of the console market you aren't. For example:
  • Main profit streams are heavily dependents for years of a single product success
  • If that product fails, it's really hard and costly to salvage or replace it in a short time
  • Someone buying a successor is highly preferred over the current product because software support (and thus software sales) will heavily decline after a couple years for the later.
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Blue Monty said:
Unless Sony buys Nintendo there is nothing worth discussing when it comes to PS5 chances of redemption in Japan.
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I mean with slim editions it means more units can be produced and sent to Japan (and ROTW). Current is suffering from supply issues, a slim can alleviate this and they can produce more.

So yes it would get people talking 😜
 
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
PS4 Pro was announced September and released in November and the N3DS was august for an October launch (about 6 weeks).

I wasn’t sure to use this example since you said successor but then used the Lite….
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The "Even" was exactly because the Lite was just a revision and not a successor. I will edit for clarity.
 
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Late to the party, but yes marikos switches are an awesome update for only 2 years after vanilla. So im quite hopefull for what we can see for a new switch 5 - 6 years after OG switch, we already have Oled and all games can run in 60fps already, so I think is not imposible to see 4k (dlss) and 60 fps in OG switch games dock.
 
PandaAndino said:
Late to the party, but yes marikos switches are an awesome update for only 2 years after vanilla. So im quite hopefull for what we can see for a new switch 5 - 6 years after OG switch, we already have Oled and all games can run in 60fps already, so I think is not imposible to see 4k (dlss) and 60 fps in OG switch games dock.
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I can remember having a meltdown over that model because some of us expected at least an option to use higher clocks in docked mode. The battery increase is indeed fantastic though so I understand why they went with that instead of more performance.
 
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My Tulpa said:
I wouldn’t expect publishers of major games to suddenly be hung ho about the new Super Switch…with a much lower userbase size…when they’ve been perfectly fine ignoring the Switch userbase up till now.
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I think following up a successful system makes a difference. Companies who didn't bet on Wii early were already too focused on games that couldn't be made to work on Wii to change course in any significant way by the end of that generation, but early Wii U got stuff like Call of Duty, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed, Tekken (even if some stuff like Mass Effect 3 was pretty insulting). Switch isn't as bad off as Wii in inability to get ports, but was still following a very unsuccessful system and arrived so late compared to PS4+One that its userbase was a mostly ignorable fraction for a long time, so again rather than changing course plenty of companies were willing to just continue their existing course and maybe farm some late ports out to another developer. So sure, like Wii U before it I think more companies who didn't expect Switch to be such a big deal will be less likely to make the same gamble with its successor.
 
My Tulpa said:
I wouldn’t expect publishers of major games to suddenly be hung ho about the new Super Switch…with a much lower userbase size…when they’ve been perfectly fine ignoring the Switch userbase up till now.
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If by major, you mean the dwindling AAA variety, I assure you if they're lack of support didn't matter to the Switch from 2017 until now, why would it matter later? And correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't the OLED already matched the sales of the PS4 Pro despite it being on the market less for than a quarter of the time?
 
The tabby talks of his second hands on:

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My guess is one is just a special color edition, and the one with the different/'warped' case is the chicken dinner.
 
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Crusters said:
The tabby talks of his second hands on:

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


My guess is one is just a special color edition, and the one with the different/'warped' case is the chicken dinner.
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Could be mm but cm makes more sense... I'd say an extra 1.5cm diagonal and 0.5cm horizontal.
 
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Heh. Some of the posters have taken to referring to this 7nm x1 rumor as the x1++++++++, which I am thoroughly enjoying, as it's the exact same kind of absurd I would do.
 
RennanNT said:
You sounded very sure that they won't announce a successor until 1~2 months before launch, but I can't think of a single console successor which was released just 1 or 2 months after announcement like you proposed.
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Assuming the successor releases alongside BOTW2, and assuming both release in March, I can see the first or second week of January being the announcement. (This was what I meant by 1-2 months, if they were rushing it out in the early part of next year, as I do not think they will not announce a better console, prior to holiday, that doesn't launch until after holiday).

Maybe a 6-month roll-out will happen, but that roll-out won't begin until sometime in 2023.
 
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EDITED: Sorry everyone this thread is not the place, I was just shocked to find out the news that way and typed my thoughts as I went.
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
I think following up a successful system makes a difference. Companies who didn't bet on Wii early were already too focused on games that couldn't be made to work on Wii to change course in any significant way by the end of that generation, but early Wii U got stuff like Call of Duty, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed, Tekken (even if some stuff like Mass Effect 3 was pretty insulting). Switch isn't as bad off as Wii in inability to get ports, but was still following a very unsuccessful system and arrived so late compared to PS4+One that its userbase was a mostly ignorable fraction for a long time, so again rather than changing course plenty of companies were willing to just continue their existing course and maybe farm some late ports out to another developer. So sure, like Wii U before it I think more companies who didn't expect Switch to be such a big deal will be less likely to make the same gamble with its successor.
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Most of the early Wii U ports were ports Nintendo paid/pushed to get. A better example would be 3DS that was treated as the successor of both PSP and DS by almost all developers (There was still Nintendo money hatting but it wasnt the reason for so many ports like Wii U was). Nintendo is quite aggresive at the start of new gens when it comes to getting ports/exclusives so if they treat Drake as a big deal I expect that to happen even if not at 3DS level.

Crusters said:
If these data points are useful to anyone, the tabby says the new color shell has been in production for 6 months, while the new shape shell is the first he's seen of it.
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So you are saying Feb 2023 release date ;) ?
 
Demon Lizardman said:
So what would the power of this new console be equivalent to? A Ps4 Pro, Xbox Series S?
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Until we know clocks it's hard to say but general consensus is somewhere around PS4+ with DLSS on top. Something like that will be punching above its weight and may very well be perceived to be in PS5 territory by uninformed consumers.
 
Gobias-Ind said:
Honestly, if all the Chinese factory leaks turn out false, I still appreciate learning about the machine translated titles of upcoming Nintendo releases "Spray 3" and "Cookout 2"
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If the factory leaks turn out false, what I'm still gonna appreciate is learning about "Uncle Nate" and "Aunt Emily." ❤️
 
If they can get this in-between current and last generation like the Switch was (in-between PS3 & PS4) it'd truly be a modern hybrid console again.
 
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