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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Real talk people REALLY overestimate how popular PC is, thinking that PC sales make up a ton of a games sales when in reality it's not even a half of what it sells on console most of the time. Sometimes not even a fraction. Not helping that a lot of PC gamers usually buy full priced games when they're on sale.
Active Steam users is a lower number than the total sales of Nintendo Switch. ๐Ÿ˜…

The successor has a very healthy chance of having basically the same userbase as Steam.
 
Active Steam users is a lower number than the total sales of Nintendo Switch. ๐Ÿ˜…

The successor has a very healthy chance of having basically the same userbase as Steam.
Is PC a relatively good-numbered market? Yes. But ultimately, it's essentially chump change for AAA games compared to consoles, which is why optimization is an afterthought. It mostly matters for indie games.
 
I think we have known about Microsoft/Xbox movements of lately, this is just more of the same, it potentially means significant titles are coming to Switch 2

Modern Rareware stuff? Sea of Thieves, Viva Pinata, Killer Instinct?
Halo? Fallout? Would a new Tony Hawk be a possibility? Cause I would like to get TH Underground 1+2
 
Is PC a relatively good-numbered market? Yes. But ultimately, it's essentially chump change for AAA games, which is why optimization is an afterthought. It mostly matters for indie games.
Across Xbox Series X|S and Xbox One, Xbox apparently has about fifty five million active users. (38M+ paying the subscription for Game Pass of some form on console.)

Across PS4 and PS5, PlayStation apparently has about a hundred and ten million active users. (47M+ paying for PS+)

Nintendo Switch and Steam both stand in the 120-130M active user range. (NSO having 38M+ paying users.)

The platforms are not as different as we think sometimes. If Nintendo sustains that and ends up with 100M active users on the successor by end of life, it'll be as valuable a AAA platform as any other.
 
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Shadows is suppose to be on the PS4. I think we are going to be ok.
Nope, that was an assumption based on site code, thereโ€™s not actually any last gen versions.
I'm going to miss the days of going from the SNES to N64, N64 to Gamecube, and seeing these huge graphical leaps.

I've said it before, but this is basically the "final frontier". We know the Switch 2 is going to be in the ball-park area of the Series S/PS4 Pro and that's fantastic. IMO, the improvements are getting smaller and smaller and that's a nice sweet-spot where it'll get the lion's share of titles from the 8th, 9th, and some of the 10th generation. It feels silly that a PS5 Pro is under development when it barely feels like the 9th gen has even gotten started and we're arguably plateauing when it comes to graphics. It's more about budget and a director's vision than it is about hardware these days.
While it is a shame to lose that excitement, I honestly feel like weโ€™ve long since hit โ€œgood enoughโ€œ territory in games since the PS4/Xbone. Thatโ€™s not to say all games hit that mark, or that all elements in games that do hit it donโ€™t have flaws I wish were fixed. Games like Uncharted 4, The Order 1886, and Ryse just donโ€™t look dated next to the best games of today even though there actually is a large difference in graphical quality. So far Hellblade 2โ€˜s visuals look insane and Iโ€™m excited to see more games in that level of fidelity, but it doesnโ€™t retroactively age games from 10 years ago like new benchmarks in graphics used to thanks to diminishing returns. I honestly wouldnโ€™t mind more years of PS4 level visuals polished to a sheen.
I think we have known about Microsoft/Xbox movements of lately, this is just more of the same, it potentially means significant titles are coming to Switch 2

I just want Halo MCC on Switch 2.
 
I do wish Valve would share Deck numbers so we could actually know how much it sold
I think itโ€™s speculated around 3-10M

Which is good for valve, since at the end of the day itโ€™s a niche item for hardcore PC players.

Like I feel like Iโ€™ve said it thousand of times, but both are meant for two entire different markets

Steam has Pc players and tech enthusiasts

Meanwhile switch has the home console and handheld market.
 
PC Gaming is absolutely huge. Steam alone has 120 million active users per month, a service which doesn't have a single Fortnite player.

It's also very diverse. This is what I mean by capturing a large percentage of a small market, or a smaller percentage of a bigger market. AAA gaming is built around capturing close to 100% of gamers within its very limited demographic.

But so is Nintendo's model, where they're okay with a modest selling console because even stuff like Clubhouse Games captures 3% of that market. Nintendo's version of this just costs less.
 
Ahh I see we are back in the โ€œSwitch wonโ€™t sell because insert reason 700 hereโ€

Switch 2 confirmed to sell 100+ million again ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จ
Nintendoomed!!!
ah-shit-here-we-go-again-ah-shit.gif
 
GBA at launch was smaller than original GB at launch, but since then the trajectory has been bigger.

There's a bit of seesawing with products released nearly annually, but definitely smartphones in general have been getting bigger over the years. Original iPhone (2007) 4.53" tall, iPhone 8 (2017) 5.45", iPhone 15 (2023) 5.81".

So, better than the one I've been using since 2017.

SIGNIFICANTLY better than the one I've been using since 2017.

Unchanged from the one I've been using since 2017.

25% improvement over the Series S spec that gets the most complaint.

And STILL an improvement from 2017 Switch, which actively removed things from the machines it was replacing, like the camera and mic.

"A more powerful version of the distant second place console" wasn't a winning idea. "A more powerful version of the first place console" was such a winning idea it remains the top selling console ever.

The difference I think is that for something like "Super Famicom" adding a word to the console title is new. But now we see so many models of machines that are New or Pro or X versions that it would be much more ambiguous what a "Super Switch" or "Switch DX" meant.

About the only thing possible on docked mode that you shouldn't expect as possible on portable mode is video output of greater than 1080p.

That's a liiitle oversimplified. Based on my experience you can be in what's considered "retina" pixel density, but if producing an aliased image you're still going to be able to notice those sharp edges. But at Switch 2 distance/dimensions, yeah, the difference between a well-anti-aliased 1080p and 2160p would probably escape almost all eyes.

It probably still wouldn't make it very useful for such a low power device, though. Like, we've spent plenty of time talking about how costly just doing DLSS super resolution to 4K will be for Switch 2 and how feasible it will be. Frame generation is another level of cost beyond that.



This video compares DLSS frame generation off and on for several games at 1080p using a 4060, the lowest level 4000 card out there. The game with the biggest FPS gain is Need For Speed Unbound, which seems to change things from 100-110 to 150-160. For simplicity, let's say it's changing 105 to 156. VERY LOOSE calculations following, but similar to what Digital Foundry did for its DLSS calculations with the 2050.

At 105fps, each frame is taking 9.5 milliseconds. At 156, that's 78 real frames and 78 generated frames. If each real frame has the same cost as before, that accounts for 741ms, leaving 259. 259ms / 78 = 3.3ms per generated frame. Of at least the games shown, this was the cheapest for generated frames. Similar calculations for Witcher 3 had each generated frame over 5ms.

Now consider both that that the 4060 has several times the compute capabilities we could optimally expect for a docked Switch 2 (or a theoretical Lovelace Switch 2), let alone portable. Now consider that frame generation costs scale with resolution, so generating a 1440p or 4K frame would be much more costly. So maybe if we're lucky we end up with a version of Switch 2 where in portable mode it can DLSS generate a 1080p frame in 20ms, and in docked mode take the same time for a 1500p frame. Not very useful if most games would be expecting to spend 16 or 33 ms per real frame anyway.

Ray-Tracing on portable mode, very very intereting
 
We found out Nate had already been told so by sources at that time,
But I'm talking about last year, long before the delay to 2025 news.

I get being dismissive of certain forms of pessimism, but the confidence people have where they think they know better than what seems like a fairly large number of Tech Insiders who seem to be pointing towards NIntendo going for the cheap short term route when it comes to node size just seems odd.
 
Thereโ€™re a lot users on Steam. Most of them will not buy a full priced games.

Itโ€™s the same why iOS is more profitable for devs despite Android having a way bigger user base. iOS users are more willing to pay for apps. iOS gets priority for apps and games development because of this reason. And why consoles are better than iOS for $60 games. Console players buy more $60 games.
 
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But I'm talking about last year, long before the delay to 2025 news.

I get being dismissive of certain forms of pessimism, but the confidence people have where they think they know better than what seems like a fairly large number of Tech Insiders who seem to be pointing towards NIntendo going for the cheap short term route when it comes to node size just seems odd.
As a matter of fact, if you think that this person in that tweet is a so-called "techie" and that he is credible based solely on "dude trust me" sources, I would suggest that you take a look at your own head.

Also what new technology can come out of a $1 cost this is what baffles me greatly, you like to sing against threads but there are good reasons why we have a good argument for how worthless this tweet is.

Also what is "cheap short term tech", the switch2 uses amped architecture and has 12GB LPDDR5X, is this cheap short term tech?
 
I don't see why the growing handheld PC market is bad for the Switch 2. If Switch 2 is too weak to get modern games, so would handheld PC. If the handheld PC market is big enough to take into account for development, then a Switch 2 port would be easy.
 
I get being dismissive of certain forms of pessimism, but the confidence people have where they think they know better than what seems like a fairly large number of Tech Insiders who seem to be pointing towards NIntendo going for the cheap short term route when it comes to node size just seems odd.
This particular rumor doesn't have anything to do with node size as far as I'm aware, their grievance is with the age of the GPU architecture.
The other people who have suggested 8nm haven't given any substantial reason to believe it other than "Orin is 8nm" and are often providing conflicting information like higher clocks which aren't sustainable on this node.
 
But I'm talking about last year, long before the delay to 2025 news.

I get being dismissive of certain forms of pessimism, but the confidence people have where they think they know better than what seems like a fairly large number of Tech Insiders who seem to be pointing towards NIntendo going for the cheap short term route when it comes to node size just seems odd.
Tbf Nate hinted at 2025 being a possible launch year but placed his bet on late 2024 and it was on target until the news of an internal delay surfaced a few months ago.

I don't think quoting a rando on Twitter spouting off is relevant here. If nate was saying these things i would listen. That Twitter rando is not Nate.

Simple as that
 
I try to keep it in check by not insulting people on the forums, but as I've been in this thread for a while now, there are some people who are so obsessive it makes me cranky.
 
.I would like to put an immediate end to this nutrient-less thread, an obsessive person and a completely untrustworthy tweet have completely derailed the thread's discussion, and once again, everything we know so far doesn't match up with what he's saying, and I don't know what was once done to Nate in this thread, but it's enough for me to know that the person's tweets are unfounded conjecture.
 
As a matter of fact, if you think that this person in that tweet is a so-called "techie" and that he is credible based solely on "dude trust me" sources, I would suggest that you take a look at your own head.

Also what new technology can come out of a $1 cost this is what baffles me greatly, you like to sing against threads but there are good reasons why we have a good argument for how worthless this tweet is.

Also what is "cheap short term tech", the switch2 uses amped architecture and has 12GB LPDDR5X, is this cheap short term tech?
It's not just this one guy though. It's also Kopite, MLID, and even Rich from DF. Now maybe it's possible that they are all getting this info from the same few NVidia related sources who happen to be wrong about the node size, but that seems unlikely so far.
 
It's not just this one guy though. It's also Kopite, MLID, and even Rich from DF. Now maybe it's possible that they are all getting this info from the same few NVidia related sources who happen to be wrong about the node size, but that seems unlikely so far.
Please link to where @XpeaGPU discussed the node size.
 
Questioning the mental health of others over petty disagreements over a series of posts is inexcusable. You are being thread banned for 2 weeks. โ€“ MissingNo., BassForever, big lantern ghost, Dardan Sandiego, IsisStormDragon, Zellia
It's not just this one guy though. It's also Kopite, MLID, and even Rich from DF. Now maybe it's possible that they are all getting this info from the same few NVidia related sources who happen to be wrong about the node size, but that seems unlikely so far.
Therefore, I suggest you get your head looked at, get a psychiatric evaluation, and I will refuse to engage you in even the most basic level of reasoned communication.
 
Is PC a relatively good-numbered market? Yes. But ultimately, it's essentially chump change for AAA games compared to consoles, which is why optimization is an afterthought. It mostly matters for indie games.
That's not true. Most AAA games on PC sell as well as, if not better than, their console versions. Publishers like Capcom have said PC is its biggest market for games like AAA Resident Evil and Monster Hunter.
 
Only the most leaky company out of the leakiest. It's basically a meme at this point.

Which is why we're kinda surprised nothing has leaked yet from Ubisoft thus so far regarding Switch 2. Unless I've missed it.
In times of unemployment, even the Ubi staff knows how to keep their mouths shut.
 
You like COD?
Man... It's actually insane how Switch didn't get a since cod game, not even the mobile game.

Somehow the only worth thing Microsoft got, is the Cod IP, since even their worst game is the best selling game of the year.
Having Cod in ps5, Switch 2, Xbox and pc is pretty much printing money for free.

Nintendo signing a 10 year deal is probably the most lucrative thing Xbox has done in this entire generation.
shrek-sign.gif
 
That's not true. Most AAA games on PC sell as well as, if not better than, their console versions. Publishers like Capcom have said PC is its biggest market for games like AAA Resident Evil and Monster Hunter.
True. The revenue they got last quarter was almost the same between PC and consoles. Almost a 50/50 split
 
.I would like to put an immediate end to this nutrient-less thread, an obsessive person and a completely untrustworthy tweet have completely derailed the thread's discussion, and once again, everything we know so far doesn't match up with what he's saying, and I don't know what was once done to Nate in this thread, but it's enough for me to know that the person's tweets are unfounded conjecture.
I agree with your point and think we should, more or less, move on. But describing the actions of users as "nutrient-less" is hilarious. I'm going to start using that from now on.
 
In term of "tech insiders" talking about the node, I only know of 2. One is kopite7kimi, who is certainly a legitimate inside source, but also is self-admittedly not 100% on T239's process node, and MLID, a person who seems like their sources are at best shakey. Every other comment on process node seems to originate with one of those two.

If I thought 8nm worked, then I would be assuming 8nm. And in fact I did for the longest time - Orin is on 8nm, RTX 30 is on 8nm, it shouldn't be surprising that their sibling is also on 8nm. Kopite said so, too. I would have been wildly surprised.

But the power numbers just don't make sense. We don't have enough data, but the Jetson power curves basically match up with power testing I've seen of Nvidia gaming cards, so I don't see any reason to not extrapolate from what we've got. Until someone has a better analysis, I am cautiously pessimistic about the ability to have Drake run on 8nm even irresponsibly low clock speeds.

"Well, maybe Nintendo will just clock under that!" By irresponsible clock speed, I mean that Nintendo is clock at a level so low that they could get the same performance by clocking fewer cores (and thus a cheaper chip) higher. And at the same - or better - power draw. Its irresponsible because it is a decision that isn't cheap and isn't powerful all for a chip that isn't backwards compatible. This is "because Nintendo" taken to the point where it's something Nintendo has never done.

Cautiously pessimistic - I'm not so arrogant that I believe back of the envelope calculations are outsmarting Nvidia's team of electrical engineers. And the moment a reliable source comes out and says 8nm, I'm ready to believe it. I don't think that it's a bad decision if it works. I just don't currently buy the argument that it works.
 
I agree with your point and think we should, more or less, move on. But describing the actions of users as "nutrient-less" is hilarious. I'm going to start using that from now on.
The point I was making was that if we continue to turn what should be a worthwhile discussion into a playground around an untrustworthy tweet, then the thread will become devoid of any nutrition, and in the same way I'm ignoring the user who doesn't have the most basic level of sanity.
 
The point I was making was that if we continue to turn what should be a worthwhile discussion into a playground around an untrustworthy tweet, then the thread will become devoid of any nutrition, and in the same way I'm ignoring the user who doesn't have the most basic level of sanity.
Oh I absolutely agree, I just thought it was a great turn of phrase! Please don't think I was making fun of you or anything, I really wasn't intending to!
 
Well, it's actually a colloquial Chinese adjective that I've directly translated into English ๐Ÿคฃ
Hey, if it works!

I think I'd be scorned if I tried to do it with Irish phrases. "Leaks like these make me on the pig's back." makes absolutely no sense in English. ๐Ÿ˜…

"Ar muin na muice", lit. "on the pig's back", it's used like "elated".

Having users with multiple languages I think is a boon for this thread. You've already been very helpful pointing out when stuff is just being ripped from the Chinese sphere of the internet and reposted in another language. Unfortunately I don't think Irish can prove nearly as effective. What do we even have? An Intel Foundry? As if any of their documentation would be in Irish. ๐Ÿ˜†
 
Someone should compiled a list of supposed specs by leakers. Would be a good for a retrospective. And to know who's credible for Switch 3 Speculation


I'll start

MLID
8xA78C
8nm
LPDDR5
4TF Dock
"Very low" clock of 800mhz or less undocked

RedGamingTech
A78AE
10SM
Samsung 8LPE
8GB RAM
7"; 720p; OLED; 120Hz
64GB eMMC
DLSS 2 and FSR 3
Roughly on par with a PS4 when docked
Similar Switch OLED design
Full backward compatible game & accessories,
 
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Hey, if it works!

I think I'd be scorned if I tried to do it with Irish phrases. "Leaks like these make me on the pig's back." makes absolutely no sense in English. ๐Ÿ˜…

"Ar muin na muice", lit. "on the pig's back", it's used like "elated".

Having users with multiple languages I think is a boon for this thread. You've already been very helpful pointing out when stuff is just being ripped from the Chinese sphere of the internet and reposted in another language. Unfortunately I don't think Irish can prove nearly as effective. What do we even have? An Intel Foundry? As if any of their documentation would be in Irish. ๐Ÿ˜†
It's kind of a coincidence haha, I would have thought that English users wouldn't be able to understand the connotations of the direct translation of the phrase, and I was going to change it to a more colloquial adjective, but I didn't realize that all of them would be able to understand it.

I have a probably bad habit of expressing myself that I haven't corrected even after all these years of learning English, and that is that I make sure to generate the sentences I want to express in my head in Chinese before translating them into English, a behavior that most Chinese proficient English speakers are asked to avoid as much as possible.
 
.I would like to put an immediate end to this nutrient-less thread, an obsessive person and a completely untrustworthy tweet have completely derailed the thread's discussion, and once again, everything we know so far doesn't match up with what he's saying, and I don't know what was once done to Nate in this thread, but it's enough for me to know that the person's tweets are unfounded conjecture.

Don't know if you are talking about me but I tried taking it away from this thread because I saw it derailed the discussion but the thread was closed... Sorry
 
Someone should compiled a list of supposed specs by leakers. Would be a good for a retrospective.

I remember

MLID
8nm
LPDDR5
4TF Dock
"Very low" clock of 800mhz or less undocked

RedGamingTech
A78AE
10SM
Samsung 8LPE
8GB RAM
7"; 720p; OLED; 120Hz
64GB eMMC
DLSS 2 and FSR 3
Roughly on par with a PS4 when docked
Similar Switch OLED design, says who? Extremely unlikely.
Full backward compatible game & accessories,
So right away they're both wrong because the RAM is LPDDR5X and 12 GB, so why is anyone still entertaining the MLID rumor.
 
Don't know if you are talking about me but I tried taking it away from this thread because I saw it derailed the discussion but the thread was closed... Sorry
No, no, no, not talking about you, because the tweet existed in the speculation thread long before you posted the thread.
 
Someone should compiled a list of supposed specs by leakers. Would be a good for a retrospective.

I'll start

MLID
8xA78C
8nm
LPDDR5
4TF Dock
"Very low" clock of 800mhz or less undocked

RedGamingTech
A78AE
10SM
Samsung 8LPE
8GB RAM
7"; 720p; OLED; 120Hz
64GB eMMC
DLSS 2 and FSR 3
Roughly on par with a PS4 when docked
Similar Switch OLED design, says who? Extremely unlikely.
Full backward compatible game & accessories,
RedgamingTech is basically wrong on all counts, and MILD has only been able to confirm that his speculated LPDDR is wrong so far, but I know that MILD is also regarded as an untrustworthy leaker on Reddit and Chinese internet forums, so the odds are extremely high that he'll be wrong again.
 
So right away they're both wrong because the RAM is LPDDR5X and 12 GB, so why is anyone still entertaining the MLID rumor.
MLID and RedGamingTech realising a Custom chip, is made with specifics and underclocking a Chip Nintendo has invested millions and not utilising it's full potential is dumb.

spiderman-dancing.gif


I would personally believe that Nintendo would use a 8nm if the tegra 239 wasn't a custom cpu instead of a shelf, like tegra 1X
reply if i'm wrong.
 
RedgamingTech is basically wrong on all counts, and MILD has only been able to confirm that his speculated LPDDR is wrong so far, but I know that MILD is also regarded as an untrustworthy leaker on Reddit and Chinese internet forums, so the odds are extremely high that he'll be wrong again.
The lpddr5x discovery and arguably the dock fan kind of matches up with what mlid said about 4 tflops docked.
 
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