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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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In other news, former prime minister Abe has passed away after being shot during a speech.

What a cruel world we live in. All the hate and anger, I will never understand.

I imagine the whole country will be in deep mourning and we shouldn't also expect any announcements from Nintendo for awhile.
 
Nintendojitsu said:
On the topic of the NERD patent, a part of me strongly believes it will amount to nothing but better emulation for NSO.
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Not sure how this would benefit older games much. Pixel games don't require so much resources to upscale and have questionable results. N64 games can be made to run at straight 4k. Injecting new textures is probably more work than Nintendo intends on doing
 
Stinky Horse said:
Skipping a weekend Splatoon 2 tournament because they are announcing some far off hardware earlier in the week is not an idea I can take seriously, sorry. They even just announced hardware specifically for that particular audience last week.
If there is a reason, it will be a Splatoon related reason, whether that's a public testfire or something behind the scenes like server overhauling or whatever.
I guess, at a stretch, it could just be because everyone is playing Mario Kart that weekend!
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The question becomes "if not then, when?"

This thing has been in the hands of developers for several years already. The longer they wait to release it the more annoyed their partners will get.

We also need SOMETHING to announce the next wave of Mario Kart DLC and if that's just a tweet I severely doubt they'd clear a whole week for it.

No, Nintendo needs to announce things. First party things. Could next week have a Direct Mini? Maybe, but I doubt it. Will it have such a glut of tweets that Splatoon 2 tournaments have no breathing room? Possibly, but that seems unlikely.

Nintendo has software we know they need to announce. They have hardware we know they need to announce. I don't see any other time frame working except September between Splatoon 3 and TGS or January.
 
Concernt said:
The question becomes "if not then, when?"

This thing has been in the hands of developers for several years already. The longer they wait to release it the more annoyed their partners will get.

We also need SOMETHING to announce the next wave of Mario Kart DLC and if that's just a tweet I severely doubt they'd clear a whole week for it.

No, Nintendo needs to announce things. First party things. Could next week have a Direct Mini? Maybe, but I doubt it. Will it have such a glut of tweets that Splatoon 2 tournaments have no breathing room? Possibly, but that seems unlikely.

Nintendo has software we know they need to announce. They have hardware we know they need to announce. I don't see any other time frame working except September between Splatoon 3 and TGS or January.
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I'm not saying it won't happen, just doubting that wether it happens or not will have any direct* connection with American Splatoon events.
*Not that kind of Direct.
 
Stinky Horse said:
I'm not saying it won't happen, just doubting that wether it happens or not will have any direct* connection with American Splatoon events.
*Not that kind of Direct.
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True, true. I think it's possible the gap in the schedule is incidental, but then it wouldn't be surprising to me for them to use that as their moment. I suppose we'll know by this time next week whether it's happening this year or not.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
Not sure how this would benefit older games much. Pixel games don't require so much resources to upscale and have questionable results. N64 games can be made to run at straight 4k. Injecting new textures is probably more work than Nintendo intends on doing
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Not all N64 emulation is cut and dry. Gamecube and Wii emulation will benefit the most.
 
Probably a dumb question but it's hard to piece everything together; if there's indeed a dedicated Splatoon 3 Direct coming in August (which sounds very likely to me), why would they announce the OLED edition console so early while they usually do so in, well, Directs?
It's really weird, I can't recall any special edition console being announced this way and it only adds to the overall confusion.

Another question, but is there even a small possibility that Nintendo takes the risk to lose holiday sales by announcing Drake in September/October for a 2023 release?
Announcing it early 2023 seems so late to me, and it would also annoy many V2/OLED buyers I guess so it's like there's no ideal timing.
I still believe there needs to be a long timeframe between announcement and release though, at least 4 months or even 5.
 
L_esson said:
Probably a dumb question but it's hard to piece everything together; if there's indeed a dedicated Splatoon 3 Direct coming in August (which sounds very likely to me), why would they announce the OLED edition console so early while they usually do so in, well, Directs?
It's really weird, I can't recall any special edition console being announced this way and it only adds to the overall confusion.

Another question, but is there even a small possibility that Nintendo takes the risk to lose holiday sales by announcing Drake in September/October for a 2023 release?
Announcing it early 2023 seems so late to me, and it would also annoy many V2/OLED buyers I guess so it's like there's no ideal timing.
I still believe there needs to be a long timeframe between announcement and release though, at least 4 months or even 5.
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Nintendo Switch is supply constrained, not demand constrained. If they announce the Drake, that cools demand over the holiday period, yes, but it means those who were put off by it will now be buying an even more expensive device from Nintendo before the end of the fiscal year.

Even if the Drake is March 2023, which I think is somewhat likely, I would expect it to be announced this year. They didn't worry about announcing the Switch itself, after all, even though it could have cooled 3DS and Wii U sales. In the end it didn't even do that. 3DS sold like hotcakes and the Wii U died its natural death way before the Switch launched.
 
Concernt said:
I honestly still think next week is fairly likely. It's a very conspicuous gap in the Nintendo calendar and the only real chance for Nintendo news that isn't Splatoon or Xenoblade until TGS. I would hardly believe they'd go radio silent for a week between Splatoon 2 tournaments and August will surely have a Splatoon 3 Direct, Testfire, then there's Gamescom.

All this plus the fact they skipped out on having a summer event for first party games and the amount of people saying Nintendo is having something in July, such as Jeff Grubb, who also believes this console will come out this calendar, or at least fiscal, year.

If they go from here to Splatoon 3's launch with basically nothing revealed in time for the holidays other than Pokémon, that would be very, very strange.

And if it's not a direct... Then I have to imagine it's a showcase. A showcase of what? I'd have to say, probably Drake.
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Didn't Jeff Grubb not believe on some kind of new Hardware, but a successor way down the line?
 
Concernt said:
Nintendo Switch is supply constrained, not demand constrained. If they announce the Drake, that cools demand over the holiday period, yes, but it means those who were put off by it will now be buying an even more expensive device from Nintendo before the end of the fiscal year.

Even if the Drake is March 2023, which I think is somewhat likely, I would expect it to be announced this year. They didn't worry about announcing the Switch itself, after all, even though it could have cooled 3DS and Wii U sales. In the end it didn't even do that. 3DS sold like hotcakes and the Wii U died its natural death way before the Switch launched.
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That's somewhat reassuring to read and it makes to me as well, when submitting the idea on other places it was like I said the most absurd thing ever and there'd be no way they wouldn't do everything to maximize their holiday sales. Annoucing it early in January (which would imply a release after this FY) would be much worse imo.
So let's hope for the best but if it's not coming this year, I'm definitely counting on a September/October reveal.
 
iNess said:
the info I mention above is not speculative, it is evidence, that is if the next revision of Switch goes in as an upgrade from HEG-001. for them to jump from HAC to HEG is a significant leap. There are reports that Q1(April/May/June) 2022-2023 sales are 30% below projection, and Nintendo told Nikkei that they have supply problem, but at the shareholder meeting they closed with raw material inventories over 66 billion yen as of March 31. If they are not parts for the current Switch, then what are they? Or they no longer want to manufacture so many of the current model, reserving those parts for another model, or those raw materials are actually servers that are not yet in production, there is data that they want to implement cloud computing support. In any case, accounting-wise, everything will be clearer until the end of the fiscal year.
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I don't know if I'm looking at this correctly, but I don't see another date for publication of the confidential files.
Short-Term Confidentiality
Does short-term confidentiality apply to this application?: Yes
If so, specify the short-term confidentiality release date (MM/DD/YYYY format): 01/10/2022
Note: If no date is supplied, the release date will be set to 45 calendar days past the date of grant.
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L_esson said:
Probably a dumb question but it's hard to piece everything together; if there's indeed a dedicated Splatoon 3 Direct coming in August (which sounds very likely to me), why would they announce the OLED edition console so early while they usually do so in, well, Directs?
It's really weird, I can't recall any special edition console being announced this way and it only adds to the overall confusion.

Another question, but is there even a small possibility that Nintendo takes the risk to lose holiday sales by announcing Drake in September/October for a 2023 release?
Announcing it early 2023 seems so late to me, and it would also annoy many V2/OLED buyers I guess so it's like there's no ideal timing.
I still believe there needs to be a long timeframe between announcement and release though, at least 4 months or even 5.
Click to expand...
Which special edition Switches were announced in directs? I didn't know any were.
 
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L_esson said:
That's somewhat reassuring to read and it makes to me as well, when submitting the idea on other places it was like I said the most absurd thing ever and there'd be no way they wouldn't do everything to maximize their holiday sales. Annoucing it early in January (which would imply a release after this FY) would be much worse imo.
So let's hope for the best but if it's not coming this year, I'm definitely counting on a September/October reveal.
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Agreed. Those just seem like likely times. Next week, between Splatoon and TGS, or October (around the time the original was revealed).
 
CloudLuma said:
Didn't Jeff Grubb not believe on some kind of new Hardware, but a successor way down the line?
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Drake being a Pro or successor doesnt matter is just marketing talk depending on how Nintendo wants to position it early on, this is the future of Switch in the long run.
 
Concernt said:


He hasn't deleted it!
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He was saying this back in 2021, and his tune changed to be pretty pessimistic after the OLED hit.

Interesting that he’s pivoted back to it. I’m assuming he’s probably not heard anything new, and the recent commotion has got him thinking maybe the original findings were correct.

Edit : just realized this was an old post
 
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BobNintendofan said:
A September announcement indeed makes no sense from multiple perspectives.
It is pure copium. Either we see it by august or it's not happening this year.
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You can see an August reveal but not September? lol this makes no sense.

Nintendo revealing new hardware at the end of June/beginning of July makes sense for a product releasing during Q2.

Maximize shipments/sales of Q1 product. Take a hit during the start of the new Q, but relying on the new hardware release at the end of the Q to push overall hardware.

If not then, revealing new hardware in Sept makes perfect sense. That would be at the tail end of Q2, doesn’t depress Q2 sales.

A Sept reveal means Nintendo wants to launch the new hardware Oct/Nov.

Holiday sales through the roof.

BobNintendofan said:
It still remains possible that drake was delayed due to the pandemic effecting both demand for the switch (keeping its sales consistent for longer) as well as making it much harder to supply.
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Drake won’t cut off OLED/Lite sales because it won’t be positioned as a replacement for those models (I’m pretty sure more ps4 slims sold 2016-2020 than ps4 pro’s)

As for shortages/supply…no hardware manufacturer 2020-2022 delayed hardware launches because of that. Not Sony, not Microsoft, not Apple, not Nvidia, not valve…heck even Nintendo didn’t shy from releasing OLED Switch


L_esson said:
Probably a dumb question but it's hard to piece everything together; if there's indeed a dedicated Splatoon 3 Direct coming in August (which sounds very likely to me), why would they announce the OLED edition console so early while they usually do so in, well, Directs?
It's really weird, I can't recall any special edition console being announced this way and it only adds to the overall confusion.
Click to expand...

Special edition Monster Hunter Rise Switch console was announced via tweet January 2021

Monster Hunter Rise direct was in Feb 2021.

Another question, but is there even a small possibility that Nintendo takes the risk to lose holiday sales by announcing Drake in September/October for a 2023 release?
Announcing it early 2023 seems so late to me, and it would also annoy many V2/OLED buyers I guess so it's like there's no ideal timing.
I still believe there needs to be a long timeframe between announcement and release though, at least 4 months or even 5.
Click to expand...

There is no reason to announce new Switch hardware in 2022 unless you plan to release it 2022. If they are going to release it 2023, they will announce it in 2023.

Switch model revisions don’t need to be revealed months before release. They can easily be revealed 1-3 months before release, no problem.
 
It's so calm here ever since the frenzy from earlier this week with the Splatoon 3 OLED and it's possible implications on the other rumors.
 
My Tulpa said:
You can see an August reveal but not September? lol this makes no sense.

Nintendo revealing new hardware at the end of June/beginning of July makes sense for a product releasing during Q2.

Maximize shipments/sales of Q1 product. Take a hit during the start of the new Q, but relying on the new hardware release at the end of the Q to push overall hardware.

If not then, revealing new hardware in Sept makes perfect sense. That would be at the tail end of Q2, doesn’t depress Q2 sales.

A Sept reveal means Nintendo wants to launch the new hardware Oct/Nov.

Holiday sales through the roof.



Drake won’t cut off OLED/Lite sales because it won’t be positioned as a replacement for those models (I’m pretty sure more ps4 slims sold 2016-2020 than ps4 pro’s)

As for shortages/supply…no hardware manufacturer 2020-2022 delayed hardware launches because of that. Not Sony, not Microsoft, not Apple, not Nvidia, not valve…heck even Nintendo didn’t shy from releasing OLED Switch




Special edition Monster Hunter Rise Switch console was announced via tweet January 2021

Monster Hunter Rise direct was in Feb 2021.



There is no reason to announce new Switch hardware in 2022 unless you plan to release it 2022. If they are going to release it 2023, they will announce it in 2023.

Switch model revisions don’t need to be revealed months before release. They can easily be revealed 1-3 months before release, no problem.
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Yes but this isn't a simple revision like OLED or Lite, even if Nintendo doesn't clearly position it as a successor, it will at least be presented as a more powerful/premium option they'll have to market showing gameplay, new games and possibly cross-gen/exclusives. I can't see a short timeframe especially in this case, considering they had 3 months for OLED (though it didn't need that much imo).

Also, why should it have to absolutely be released the same year as the reveal?
You're saying yourself that OLED/Lite sales wouldn't be cut by Drake, so that should apply to holiday sales as well right? You really think a reveal in 2022 for a 2023 release couldn't happen, even from Nintendo?
 
This device won’t just be a Pro, it’s going to have quite a few prominent exclusive games. This will drive a greater sales % in the next few years than a new model just offering better resolutions or frame rates would.

I wouldn’t be surprised if even “impossible ports” like Witcher 3 had the PS4 version of the game ported across to this new device. Then we’re bound to see the likes of RE 2, 3, 7 and Village. I think a big one will be Street Fighter 6 which would be brilliant.
 
YolkFolk said:
This device won’t just be a Pro, it’s going to have quite a few prominent exclusive games. This will drive a greater sales % in the next few years than a new model just offering better resolutions or frame rates would.

I wouldn’t be surprised if even “impossible ports” like Witcher 3 had the PS4 version of the game ported across to this new device. Then we’re bound to see the likes of RE 2, 3, 7 and Village. I think a big one will be Street Fighter 6 which would be brilliant.
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This is why I still believe the most logical name for the new device is Switch 2.

The advertising will be like “Switch 2 the Future of gaming.”

“Switch 2 gaming in 4K. Switch 2 handheld gaming anytime, anywhere”

“Nintendo Switch 2.”
 
mjayer said:
They didn't worry about announcing the Switch itself, after all, even though it could have cooled 3DS and Wii U sales. In the end it didn't even do that. 3DS sold like hotcakes and the Wii U died its natural death way before the Switch launched.
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Wii U had cooled off soon after it launched. Switch being announced gave Nintendo life. They won't announce a Switch successor, or upgrade, six months in advance. Maybe a Lite OLED for holiday. No word of an upgrade/successor until it's a month or two from release.
 
GriffMendez said:
Wii U had cooled off soon after it launched. Switch being announced gave Nintendo life. They won't announce a Switch successor, or upgrade, six months in advance. Maybe a Lite OLED for holiday. No word of an upgrade/successor until it's a month or two from release.
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I agree with this. Switch sales are still going strong. They won't cannibalize themselves six months out. Three months is the sweet spot.
 
karmitt said:
He was saying this back in 2021, and his tune changed to be pretty pessimistic after the OLED hit.

Interesting that he’s pivoted back to it. I’m assuming he’s probably not heard anything new, and the recent commotion has got him thinking maybe the original findings were correct.
Click to expand...

He posted this tweet AFTER the OLED was announced (it was announced earlier that day).
 
karmitt said:
Interesting that he’s pivoted back to it. I’m assuming he’s probably not heard anything new, and the recent commotion has got him thinking maybe the original findings were correct.
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He said pretty much this, exactly, on yesterday's podcast.
 
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GriffMendez said:
No. There is not.
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Disagree:
Concernt said:
Nintendo Switch is supply constrained, not demand constrained. If they announce the Drake, that cools demand over the holiday period, yes, but it means those who were put off by it will now be buying an even more expensive device from Nintendo before the end of the fiscal year.

Even if the Drake is March 2023, which I think is somewhat likely, I would expect it to be announced this year. They didn't worry about announcing the Switch itself, after all, even though it could have cooled 3DS and Wii U sales. In the end it didn't even do that. 3DS sold like hotcakes and the Wii U died its natural death way before the Switch launched.
Click to expand...
 
GriffMendez said:
Wii U had cooled off soon after it launched. Switch being announced gave Nintendo life. They won't announce a Switch successor, or upgrade, six months in advance. Maybe a Lite OLED for holiday. No word of an upgrade/successor until it's a month or two from release.
Click to expand...
I would argue one of the biggest problems with Wii U’s marketing was that stupid U. Wtf is that? I think Nintendo had to learn from that. If this new Switch is as powerful as the leak suggests this will eventually be a successor. Calling it 2 also allows them to go high on the price whiles keeping the other models on the market. It’s the most clearest way of signaling: this will have exclusives, this is a generational leap, we will eventually pivot to supporting only this… and if those points are true (even if they support the og models for the next few years) they would be making a mistake to not name it Switch 2… imho.
 
YolkFolk said:
The same analysis which sees us get Skyrim on 360, One and Series. If devs can re-release a superior version of an prior game and they think there’s money to be made then it opens up these possibilities.
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I do not expect "impossible ports" to receive "standard ports" on the same console, especially when it was reported -in the 2021 summer- that Switch developers had begun working on upgrade patches for what I assume is Drake.
 
mjayer said:
I would argue one of the biggest problems with Wii U’s marketing was that stupid U. Wtf is that? I think Nintendo had to learn from that. If this new Switch is as powerful as the leak suggests this will eventually be a successor. Calling it 2 also allows them to go high on the price whiles keeping the other models on the market. It’s the most clearest way of signaling: this will have exclusives, this is a generational leap, we will eventually pivot to supporting only this… and if those points are true (even if they support the og models for the next few years) they would be making a mistake to not name it Switch 2… imho.
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The Wii U was a mess, outside of marketing. Cheap plastic, feeling, and way too many wires, including a power cord that was nearly as big as the Switch dock.

A true transitional period, for the company.

Don't expect a successor/upgrade announcement until/unless the OLED price drops.
 
GriffMendez said:
I do not expect "impossible ports" to receive "standard ports" on the same console, especially when it was reported -in the 2021 summer- that Switch developers had begun working on upgrade patches for what I assume is Drake.
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Yeah, it’s only a guess. It would probably be less work porting Witcher 3 PS4 to Drake than it would be updating Witcher 3 Switch to Witcher 3 PS4 standards. Like you say, there might just be a patch to improve the resolution and frame rate.
 
YolkFolk said:
Yeah, it’s only a guess. It would probably be less work porting Witcher 3 PS4 to Drake than it would be updating Witcher 3 Switch to Witcher 3 PS4 standards. Like you say, there might just be a patch to improve the resolution and frame rate.
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I hear you. I forget what game, but there is a port that was poorly received, and is getting a massive overhaul/re-release on Switch, with those who previously purchased it getting the new version free.
 
GriffMendez said:
I hear you. I forget what game, but there is a port that was poorly received, and is getting a massive overhaul/re-release on Switch, with those who previously purchased it getting the new version free.
Click to expand...
Ark which is probably the worst Switch port ever (or at least that I know)
 
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