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Of course, it should not be anywhere as CPU or bandwidth bound as the switch to run a game tailored for the switch in a more stable state.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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yesyes, absolutely agree as far as the Dock With LAN Port. I totally believe they upgraded it to the extent they did as a futureproofing measure to prepare for Drake. But I meant old docks. Pre-OLED docks. Which is what I assumed @Raccoon was talking about.
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Saving this for future avatar use, thanks. Been playing some portal so haven’t had much time to catch ip on threads today and been busy with other things
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Hm. That would be a bigger question. It was my impression Raccoon was talking about the Dock with LAN Port, but I could well be wrong about that. Still, the Nintendo Switch Dock and Nintendo Switch Dock with LAN Port are physically compatible with V1/2/OLED. I could see the Drake model supporting the original dock (with the appropriate capped output), perhaps running at "Handheld Mode" clocks and flashing up a warning, but working. Otherwise I'm not sure what they can do, I don't believe the docks are keyed differently, so how would they stop people using the wrong dock? Flash up a warning saying "Dock not supported. Please use a Nintendo Switch Dock with LAN Port (HEG-007)", or the current Switch's response to an underpowered power supply (a warning message on the console screen.)?
To be honest I think it'll still support it. Just not with all the bells and whistles.
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Yeah, I could see them limiting Drake's output if inserted into an underpowered dock. Seems a little outside of Nintendo's "simple as possible for the average consumer" approach but as long as it works I could see that plus a notification message being sufficient.
D
Deleted member 887
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The increases power draw requires cutting power to the USB ports. I don’t know what usb accessories anyone actually uses with the Switch save keyboards? But it seems wild that you’d ship a device with ports that don’t work
maybe, finally, they'll allow external drives
If it's bigger, it'll have a bigger screen. If it has a bigger screen and is entering production, Mochi should've heard about it. If it's not entering production, there's no way these rando uncles know about it.
I'm ignoring every 'bigger' rumor as likely baseless until Mochi comments on it.
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My Tulpa
Bob-omb
If they announce Drake Switch in Sept, they have PLENTY of time to showcase what games look like on it comparatively. I don’t think you need more than a month to showcase Botw2 and Bayo 3 on Drake and go….ok wow, that does look good in 4K at 60fps
You don’t need more than a month to explain an enthusiast model to enthusiasts lol
They don’t HAVE to do anything like that, you are right. I’m just relating what seems more probable.
The problem of announcing Drake in Sept and not releasing till 2023 will depress holiday sales overall as many will wait for hardware/gaming purchases till 2023.
Releasing Drake in Q3 2022 won’t depress Q3 holiday sales at all. Sure, the older hybrid and OLED models will be cut in sales a bit, but the idea is that the new model sales makes up for that loss. And then some.
I wasn’t trying to say Drake existing won’t have ANY affect on Lite/hybrid/OLED sales…I’m sure the ps4 pro holiday 2016 made ps4 slim sales lower that holiday than it otherwise would have been had the ps4 pro not existed. I was trying to intimate that in the long term, it didn’t adversely affect the appeal/demand of the ps4 slim. Ps4 slim sold quite well alongside the pro, sold more even. Same with this Drake dynamic
Mr Doggo
Anti oof
those are all worse than 4k lmao
man there are so many problems right now for cloud computing here. namely latency and longevity
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
When you say “prominent exclusives” I’m assuming you mean ports of 3rd party multiplats that are just exclusive to the Drake model…and skip the older models?
I don’t think this is going to happen as much as you think it will. I also don’t think even when it does happen, it will drive hardware sales much. 1st party drives Nintendo hardware sales.
The only 3rd party games that have any possible affect on Nintendo hardware sales are 3rd party Nintendo console exclusives (meaning not also available on all the pc/Xbox/PlayStation platforms)
I will be surprised if these publishers who didn’t think their game would sell that well to the 100 million Switch userbase to be worth the effort, will start clamoring to port to the 15 million Drake Switch userbase.
They will still have the same concerns if the demand from the switch userbase for game X is worth the effort to bother.
There will be some “vanity” projects ala Witcher 3 playable on the Lite, but it won’t be as many as you think.
infinitywave
Rattata
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The userbase of a pro update of a console is going to be a lot more engaged, higher software attach rate, than an original release console. That hypothetical 15 million could look pretty good.
9-Volt
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Nate said there will be third party exclusives and Stephen totilo revealed that one of them is Red Dead Revolver 2. There's a big chance this is gonna be another GBC.
And the thing about "1st party drives Nintendo hardware sales" thing is wrong, multiple excellent Mario games couldn't save Wii U. Certain games sell Nintendo consoles and they're both first and third party alike: Animal Crossing, Pokémon, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest etc. And you'll see some multiplat third party games pushing Nintendo systems as some are better suited for handheld gameplay. Like Stardew Valley.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
If they call it Switch 2 it will be perceived as being a typical next gen successor console type. I guarantee you Nintendo doesn’t want this impression with this mid-gen upgrade model meant to lengthen the latter half of the Switch lifecycle.
I think you're putting too much stock in the wording. Nintendo can always mean the Switch branding itself. "Game Boy" lasted from 1989 to 2010, for example.
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Stephen Totilo actually said RDR2 was being ported to both the base Switch and the pro.
TheGreatMightyPoo
Like Like
Nintendo Switch Advance wouldn’t be bad.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
It’s not just about hardware.
If you announce in Sept the Drake…and then say April 30th 2023 release…you have millions of people stop buying both hardware AND software for over 6 months.
They will wait on everything Switch related until then.
Those 2 quarters will suffer lower revenue and lower engagement for completely unnecessary reasons.
If they can’t launch the Drake model until April 2023 for whatever reason, there is no good reason to announce it in 2022. None.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
There is NO analysis where porting 3rd party multiplats onto Xboxes is anywhere near the same for porting onto Nintendo’s lol
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
Nintendo 1st party is the bus driver on all their consoles sink or swim. You don’t have those release & 3rd parties are not doing much of anything. So yes the thing about 1st party drives hardware is very much correct. Just ask about any sales person who has been following even the last five years & they can tell you this.
We are also not using the WiiU as an example because frankly nothing short of completely scrapping that entire thought process would have saved it. The irony being that Nintendo gave 3rd parties room to work with yet they did nothing with it much like the 3DS initially. 1st party carried the 3DS on its back to modest sales.
Sulley
Rattata
So the Nvidia/TSMC news got me thinking. It might be too late but is it possible that Nvidia, in a way to not have a ton of TSMC 4N wafers laying around, might subsidize a possible Switch 2 with TSMC 4N?
OP
OP
Probably not if Nintendo's new hardware is releasing around the late 2022 to early 2024 timeframe since companies usually secure capacity for process nodes, especially advanced process nodes, years in advance.
Sulley
Rattata
That's true but Nvidia has oversecured TSMC 4N, now they're realizing demand won't be as high as they initially expected (like many other companies that secured capacity) and TSMC is refusing to "give them a refund". It would be extremely expensive to just make a ton of RTX 40 series GPUs that will sit in warehouses so I wonder if there might be a world where they switch Drake to 5nm to compensate for their over procurement.
what would happen, I think, is lower end gpus would get pushed up. 2022 was supposed to be for the 4090 and 4080, and maybe, the 4070. if they have an excess of wafers, we might see Ti models or even the 4060 sooner
Sulley
Rattata
Yeah I could totally see that. If they can get a 4060 out earlier maybe it could help their demand issue.
mjayer
Bob-omb
Your probably right and Nintendo probably won't go this route but...
I see no problem with it being perceived as a typical next gen successor type console, especially if they are going to slap a premium price tag on it. In a scenario where Switch 2 is launched with a $499 price tag, a $299 OLED and $199 Lite are going to still be selling well for more than a year, especially when still a part of their marketing campaigns.
Remember, Nintendo historically has had 2 main lines, the portable and the home consoles platforms. By launching a very premium successor they can carry on this legacy in a very smart way. They can support 2 "generations" at one time.
We were all shocked when we saw the Nvidia hack/leak show that this thing is packing quite the SOC. Depending on what they build around that SOC I could even see a higher price tag being even higher than $499! Heck, maybe they go wild and go with a 4nm process or something and this thing is even better-er then we expect. "Nintendo would never do that!" And why not? They can go high end, at a time where their current console (now low end) is selling so well. They can keep their ethos of earning money on every hardware sell while supporting 2 ends of the hardware spectrum. 5 or so years from now Switch OG would have been phased out and Switch 2 priced lower and lower (lite version, etc) and ready for Switch 3 to be introduced.
This would be a completely new strategy for Nintendo, yes... but in my mind it would be a smart way to go!
OP
OP
Perhaps a die shrink of Drake, similar to how the Tegra X1+ was a die shrink of the Tegra X1? (Of course, that's assuming Nintendo and Nvidia decide to use TSMC's N6 process node for the fabrication of Drake.)
Anyway, my point is that decisions regarding which process node to use are made well in advance.
MP!
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Pavolink
Bob-omb
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Agreed. People are constantly dismissing the effects that third party support has over the Switch to be this successful.
Maybe third parties don’t drive as much as first party games, but we can’t deny that having a very vast and diverse library has helped the Switch to soar to new heights.
OP
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I can only see that happening if Nintendo and Nvidia decided to fabricate Drake using TSMC's N4 process node in early 2022.
I doubt TSMC's N4 process node is going to be used for fabricating Drake, especially if Nintendo's new hardware is releasing in the late 2022 to early 2023 timeframe.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
I don’t think “success” of the Nintendo platform (hardware sales) has anything to do with the decision of 3rd party publishers porting their major multiplats that sell well on pc/Xbox/ps to Nintendo.
Nintendo platforms are generally inhospitable to the sales of most of those type of multiplats.
For the Wii U, it was publishers saying “finally! An HD Nintendo console with a normal, standard controller! Maybe our games will finally sell better on them than they have in the past!”
That’s why you saw a rush of “unprecedented” AAA multiplat support on the Wii U it’s first 2 years.
And the shitty sales of their games on the Wii U wasn’t because of the lower than normal Wii U sales…their sales (returns) were considered shitty based on the tie ratio of sales given the userbase size at the time.
COD and Assassins Creed and Batman Arkham and Mass Effect and FIFA and etc etc etc sold like absolute shit when even counting for a 5-10 million userbase size.
You compare them to the tie ratio returns and engagement they get on the Xbox and ps at 5-10 million userbase? They are horrible.
That’s why publishers stopped bothering on the Wii U. The Xbox One got full 3rd party support 2013-2015 despite only having ~10 million userbase or so. The Xbox 360 and Series SX got full 3rd party support out of the gate despite the previous efforts being “hardware sales failures” compared to other 3rd party gaming consoles.
Switch support this time around is based on the publisher calculating if there is perceived value/demand for playing this big AAA multiplat game on a 7 inch 720p screen portable…or not.
In most cases, the calculation is “no”. It will be the same calculation for Drake porting.
Yep we are agreeing. Those who decided not to bother with porting their games to switch the last 3 years, aren’t going to change their tunes much about making Drake exclusives of those games.
I have no idea of actual ps4 pro sales numbers.
But like I said earlier, its not about raw numbers for Drake model sales or OLED sales or ps4 pro sales that matter…it’s the expectation that even though they make up only a fraction of the family of systems overall sales, they are a success for what they are designed to do.
Drake will be insanely successful if it “only” sells 15 million or so.
Where a “Switch 2” type true successor
model is expect to sell as much, or more, than the previous console models in order to be successful.
In no way does the Drake model need to sell anywhere close to the older hybrid models lifetime model to be successful
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9-Volt
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Checked again and yes, he did say so. I wonder if it's still being made for base Switch. Or they moved completely to Drake.
I'm gonna disagree with you on that one. One of the reasons 3DS reached record sales in Japan was Monster Hunter. The PSP crowd migrated to 3DS instead of Vita thanks to MH and saved 3DS from becoming even worse selling Nintendo handheld. New million seller IPs like Yokai Watch also helped.
On the contrary, Mario proved to be ineffective in pushing hardware sales once again when Nintendo rushed MK7 and Super Mario 3D Land in 2011. 3DS first started to gain steam in 2012 with the release of Animal Crossing New Leaf. Mario started to sell once the install base grew.
carbonaxiom
Piranha Plant
This discussion about third party support for new Switch hardware seems to be arguing about the wrong third parties. I don't expect the calculus to change too much with Western developers (although I do think support will increase at least a bit here).
I do expect a massive increase in support from Japanese third party developers. The formula for them is different given how much the Switch now dominates the console market in Japan. I don't expect a lot of third party exclusives, but will we see the likes of Elden Ring, Yakuza, and the latest fighting games on a more powerful Switch?
I think the answer is yes.
I do expect a massive increase in support from Japanese third party developers. The formula for them is different given how much the Switch now dominates the console market in Japan. I don't expect a lot of third party exclusives, but will we see the likes of Elden Ring, Yakuza, and the latest fighting games on a more powerful Switch?
I think the answer is yes.
If you are confused about Chinese, you can @ me. I will be faithful to the original.Thanks for calling attention to these. I think that the machine translation got the big picture but tripped up with some key details. Here's my (could be biased) interpretation of the alleged leaker's more recent posts, include some that have since been deleted:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Sorry to hear that you're stressed. May I suggest a calming jacket?
Sulley
Rattata
I imagine it will get much more third party support overall if it was more powerful. I think the Xbox Series S should help keep the bar low for current-get exclusive games which will help a future Switch 2 tremendously.
Basically all the western publishers have supported the Switch where they could (CDPR with TW3 port; EA with Apex, FIFA, Plants vs Zombies; Ubisoft with Immortals Fenyx Rising, old Assassin's Creed ports, Mario Rabbits, Just Dance; Take Two with GTA Trilogy, LA Noire, The Outer Worlds, BioShock; ABK with Crash Bandicoot, Spyro, Tony Hawk)
They have supported the Switch pretty reasonably without needing a ton of miracle ports. A possible Switch 2 combined with Series S setting a lower floor would probably lead to a flood of third party games from Japanese and Western developers alike.
Nintendo's biggest issue with third party was always their performance level, if Switch 2 is just a refinement on the Switch that's much more powerful, I really believe they'll reach near parity with PS5/XBS in terms of third party support.
A Switch 2 would do more in securing more ports from studios like Nacon and Focus and the myriad of Embracer studios. Lots of games from these mid tier publishers skipping Switch. The top names may or may not put any more games than they already have. Ubisoft's Avatar seems like a big shift in how they make their games if it trickles down to other studios. How that scales will determine if we see more ports in the future. I can see the same for EA and maybe Call of Duty
Sulley
Rattata
Microsoft mentioning they'd be down with putting Call of Duty (likely only WZ2) on Switch makes me wonder if Activision is already working on it, possibly for Switch 2?
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
Steam Deck hardware has to be marked up significantly over cost to justify its existence. It’s the only place the profit lies.
Nintendo (and others) can sell new hardware at cost (or even at a loss) because it’s purpose is to bring people to buying its platform’s software/services. That’s where the profit is.
Having said that, I expect the Drake model to sell ~$500 at about cost.
OP
OP
48 Tensor cores since Ampere has 4 Tensor cores per SM (p. 10). And GA10F has 12 SMs based on the illegal Nvidia leaks.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
Yes MH & YW helped but their success came off the back of Nintendo course correcting the 3DS. Without the price cut or Nintendo’s 1st parties, 3rd parties would have had muted success. Even with that they still did for a decent chunk of them.
MK7 proved to be a system seller much like the previous entries. Animal crossing continued the gravy train & that is what we say is history. Make no mistake though Nintendo is the major reason why the 3DS rebounded. Had they not then we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
9-Volt
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I think the complete opposite of this. When Japanese studios make graphically demanding games they do that to woo the western audience. Many of them, including Namco and Square, are under impression that the "core western gamers" do not own Switches so they skip the system for certain games. Namco could have made a Tales game that could run on Switch and sell better, but they focused on next gen systems thinking they would have their Monster Hunter World moment. They were mildly successful but they thought wrong. Nintendo needs more than a powerful platform to have a full Japanese support. They need to make sure they know that Nintendo rules west too. Otherwise we would have Dark Souls 2 on Switch by now.
On the other hand, many western games skip Switch due to hardware limitations. There's nothing stopping the publishers like Activision, Ubisoft and Take Two to release ALL of their lineup other than weak hardware. Take Two have already brought whatever they can to Switch and Ubisoft is doing the same slowly. Once the more powerful hardware arrives, they'll dump the games they couldn't on Switch.
My prediction: No Elden Ring or Yakuza unless Nintendo directly requests the ports from respective publishers. But stuff like Mafia trilogy, Modern Assassin's Creed games, Call of Duty could be part of the launch window lineup of this next Switch.
It didn't! 3DS had a very rough first year in 2011, so bad that Nintendo had to cut $70 off its price. They had MK7 and SM3DL ready for fall but the hardware sales stayed slow until 2012 where they launched AC and 3DS XL. In japan, however, Monster Hunter 3G gave the console a boost in fall 2011.
Mario games sell astronomically but Nintendo needs stuff like AC, Pokémon and MH to move hardware. Mario alone does not make the console an attractive purchase there needs to be more than that. Wii U is the sole evidence of that, it had neither a real Pokémon or AC game.
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Do the different docks have different limits in how much power they pass through? They're all using the same AC adapter.
If they're not caught off guard by its success, the extra effort shouldn't be as much. If this thing releases anytime before 2024, it should have a higher userbase relative to the competition than Switch ever had and harder to ignore.
Shadowrun
Cappy
Uh, not true.
Gabe has publicly talked about how painful it was for them to hit the price point, and they took that hit, because the profit for them comes from folks buying games on Steam, not purchasing the hardware. With Valve, it is always about Steam and increasing their market share. So, if they are making any profit, which seems highly unlikely, it is razor thin at best. Comparable devices in the pc gaming portables space cost nearly 2x as much, and that is why the price-to-performance ratio for the Deck is unrivaled at the moment.
With that said, I expect Drake to cost more than the OLED but not $500. Nintendo likes to make money on both their hardware and software, but they will get to a more consumer-friendly price without completely nuking their hardware profits thanks to their scale. Nintendo just buys parts and produces hardware at a scale magnitudes larger than Valve, and so, they can get better prices on everything from their suppliers.
Keep in mind, the new chip is gonna be the biggest expense for producing Drake, and that’s probably the only thing that’ll significantly drive up their per-unit production costs. Nintendo is going to repurpose as many parts from their existing Switch production lines as possible. The dock, for example, is probably gonna be the one they made for the OLED, and that’s already been in mass production for a year, so it is likely even cheaper to produce now. The same goes for the screen, joycons, etc.
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