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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Here's my thing. This is for the people who are too eager for the next gen. You guys really need to work on yourself if it is really bothering you that much that we get little to no information on the NGS. What happens in the future when games take longer to make? We are in territory of where games can be delayed up to 10 years. Also, Nintendo is making sure no one yaps. You can't blame them for that. This isn't a Nintendo problem it is a you problem. Fix it and this isn't toward you SiG.
Says the guy who posts daily in the hardware thread.

Also games won‘t take magically longer to make, that happens if you chase ultra-realism and giant open worlds. I don’t expect Nintendo to begin to make all their games open world, and their typical artstyle isn’t realism. Maybe they’ll take a bit longer to make but not by a big margin.
 
I don’t know if spec finalization needs to be done in 2021 for a system releasing in late 2025 if that happens, lol.

The Xbox Series X uses architecture from 2020.
It just shows that Nintendo has not abandoned their policy of waiting till tech becomes old until they start to use it. Probably so they can go to as low a price point possible but still make a profit from Switch 2 sales day 1.
 
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Says the guy who posts daily in the hardware thread.

Also games won‘t take magically longer to make, that happens if you chase ultra-realism and giant open worlds. I don’t expect Nintendo to begin to make all their games open world, and their typical artstyle isn’t realism. Maybe they’ll take a bit longer to make but not by a big margin.
Yes, I would expect some of the larger 3d games to increase their development time by about a year, while most small to medium sized games won't see much change.
 
Frankly, I am beginning to believe the rumors that Nintendo has cancelled T239.
Except there are no rumours. In fact theres been confirmation after confirmation after confirmation T239 will be it.

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OK, I'd like to state my personal speculation, or at least what I think is highly probable, that Nintendo is choosing to avoid gamescom because it's too close to the next gen console teasers, and not attending gamescom suggests that Nintendo won't be announcing many new games in the first half of this year until July/August, and even June's ND could be canceled, so for meI don't feel any anxiety as well as worry at all as we are indeed getting closer to the next gen console teasers.
 
No, but its probable that Nintendo is terrified of transitioning to Switch 2, nothing they are doing oozes any sort of confidence.

I'd say delaying your successor, having a console launch again miss holiday season, and seemingly ride the year on a possibly very dry release calendar does make me think that Nintendo has lots of guts.

Wether it's the "good guts" or the "bad guts", i'll leave that decision to everyone's own.
 
I'd say delaying your successor, having a console launch again miss holiday season, and seemingly ride the year on a possibly very dry release calendar does make me think that Nintendo has lots of guts.

Wether it's the "good guts" or the "bad guts", i'll leave that decision to everyone's own.
If it's true they are delaying to give their games extra polish, I respect that decision. Both other platform holders would either crunch their employees, release the games in an unpolished state or both.
 
If it's true they are delaying to give their games extra polish, I respect that decision. Both other platform holders would either crunch their employees, release the games in an unpolished state or both.

Not saying this doesn't happen at Nintendo, or that it does, but normally, delaying games doesn't mean less crunch, many times it means more crunch.
 
If it's true they are delaying to give their games extra polish, I respect that decision. Both other platform holders would either crunch their employees, release the games in an unpolished state or both.
MS delayed their intended launch title (Halo Infinite) by a full year and still launched the system, adding in a 3rd flavour of handling this scenario for the other platform holders. Which (with 20-20 hindsight) did not lead to a particularly successful generation.
 
MS delayed their intended launch title (Halo Infinite) by a full year and still launched the system, adding in a 3rd flavour of handling this scenario for the other platform holders. Which (with 20-20 hindsight) did not lead to a particularly successful generation.
The employees were still most likely getting crunch because how mismanaged halo infinite was, there was also the problem of them not knowing the engine since the people who worked on the engine for halo were contractors who left.

Let’s not forget about redfall, since the game was meant for a 2022 release, same goes for starfield

We’ll a delay can always be good, but sometime it’s forced because of the employees desperation on fixing the unfixible.

When it comes to making a game successful, the most important aspect will first and foremost the good management.
 
MS delayed their intended launch title (Halo Infinite) by a full year and still launched the system, adding in a 3rd flavour of handling this scenario for the other platform holders. Which (with 20-20 hindsight) did not lead to a particularly successful generation.
Yea, and that was only after a disastrous showing. If it wasn't for the backlash, they would probably have released it in the state it was.
 
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I don't think Nintendo delaying the Switch 2 from Holiday 2024 to early 2025 is gutsy. They have an eight year old console, with phenomenal profit margins, selling comfortably for a console that, again, by traditional means, should have retired years ago. The same console that has caused to break records in software sales, but have an active userbase of subscription owners.

Gutsy was delaying Switch from Holiday 2016 to early 2017 during the Wii U days.

Also, I wouldn't call it gutsy if Nintendo really had to delay the console due to software, hardware, manufactuting, distribution, warehouse reasons
 
Also I must state that according to a user who tweeted earlier, Nintendo has had multiple cases of delayed releases of new consoles, including the 3DS and NS
 
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Following Samsung and SanDisk, Phison also announced their microSD Express product, claiming it being the fastest in the market:

“Now, as demand for microSD Express memory grows, Phison is proud to present the fastest version in the market so far. It’s equipped with the more advanced 3D-layer NAND flash and contains purpose-built hardware and firmware that is designed to reduce heat and control the temperature during use.”

Phison is soliciting OEM customers for the microSD Express cards. It is not consumer facing.
 
I'd say delaying your successor, having a console launch again miss holiday season, and seemingly ride the year on a possibly very dry release calendar does make me think that Nintendo has lots of guts.

Wether it's the "good guts" or the "bad guts", i'll leave that decision to everyone's own.
When Nintendo has made what might be called courageous decisions in the past, more often than not those decisions turned out to be more arrogant and harmful than anything else.
 
The point is that three years of improvements are what they are, they're very much tangible and T239 will be missing them entirely, it already cannot be considered anything remotely "top of the line" by then, by definition.
Architectural improvements aren't what they used to be
 
Following Samsung and SanDisk, Phison also announced their microSD Express product, claiming it being the fastest in the market:

“Now, as demand for microSD Express memory grows, Phison is proud to present the fastest version in the market so far. It’s equipped with the more advanced 3D-layer NAND flash and contains purpose-built hardware and firmware that is designed to reduce heat and control the temperature during use.”

Phison is soliciting OEM customers for the microSD Express cards. It is not consumer facing.
handheld pcs are almost certainly going to be announced this year with SDExpress slots. some cameras as well, I guess, since they already have SD Card slots in addition to CFExpress slots
 
I personally think missing late 2024 is already a mistake. I used to think 2025 was next to impossible.
i thought missing 2023 was already a mistake with the SOC being complete and TOTK launching. sure the Switch can hobble along relative to it's peak but seems like a missed oppurtunity to have a 'smooth transition' with lengthy cross-gen period.
 
btw not dooming here, fully expect the reveal to come around July/August and from then it's full-on hype train until the Q1 launch.

if we don't hear anything over the summer then alarm bells will ring, remember Q1 2025 was the earliest possible date so later in 2025 is possible, even late 2025 if it slips to the following FY. though Nintendo have seriously dropped the ball by that point.
 
I'd say delaying your successor, having a console launch again miss holiday season, and seemingly ride the year on a possibly very dry release calendar does make me think that Nintendo has lots of guts.

Wether it's the "good guts" or the "bad guts", i'll leave that decision to everyone's own.
It just seems to be about shifting the time widow on transitioning to new system ever into the future, to keep the Switch alive as the main system ever longer. I mean Nintendo is not even comfortable about even confirming that they are working on a successor to the Switch, and the president got panicked when gamescom rumours happened and went out of his way to deny the whole thing as fast as he could, and Nintendo were so frightened by those gamescom reports that afterwards they started boycotting gamescom. Thus their panic is even causing them to self sabotage themselves by removing the whole aspect of building relations with third parties and showing of their hardware to more third parties, like they did last year at gamescom.

Nintendo seems to be trying to follow their own version of the Xenoblade 3 plotline about the ''Endless now'', Nintendo wants to stay in their version of the ''endless now'' with the Switch.
 
The worst thing Nintendo can be to me is boring and I am so bored 😭

Idc if it's good or bad I need some interesting information lol
 
btw not dooming here, fully expect the reveal to come around July/August and from then it's full-on hype train until the Q1 launch.

if we don't hear anything over the summer then alarm bells will ring, remember Q1 2025 was the earliest possible date so later in 2025 is possible, even late 2025 if it slips to the following FY. though Nintendo have seriously dropped the ball by that point.
Eh, I feel like Nintendo could reasonably get away with pushing out a PR statement at the end of the month confirming that the thing will drop at the end of fiscal year and then just... not say anything else about the console until January (driving everyone in this forum insane in the process). Granted, they probably won't if only because third-parties will want to start announcing that their 2025 titles will be on the hardware no later than TGS in September, which could pressure Nintendo to at least do a reveal trailer by then that teases their own first-party titles. But even if they decide to do a reveal trailer this year, I firmly believe that we aren't going to see any marketing blitz for the Switch 2 until the holidays are over, if the console is indeed March 2025.
 
btw not dooming here, fully expect the reveal to come around July/August and from then it's full-on hype train until the Q1 launch.

if we don't hear anything over the summer then alarm bells will ring, remember Q1 2025 was the earliest possible date so later in 2025 is possible, even late 2025 if it slips to the following FY. though Nintendo have seriously dropped the ball by that point.
kinda overly alarmist IMHO. We didn't get a "more than just a passing mention" of Switch till October 2016, for March 2017 release. And THAT was with Nintendo trying to hurry things a bit due to the Wii U disaster..
 
Pretty sure they will acknowledge the system in May due to the briefing, either verbally at the briefing / Q&A or via PR announcement.

But i wouldn't expect anything more.
 
We did get an acknowledgement it was coming that FY alongside the earnings release in late April 2016.
Yes, but Shuntaro Furukawa himself has said that we should not expect the same sort or announcement/marketing cycle

And even if Nintendo were to hypothetically confirm the successor’s existence May 7th, a possible year before release, it’d probably be because of the unique circumstance that the console is on its 8th year, with no news of successor, and a not si outstanding Holiday 2024 expectation
 
Well, with the Indie World being announced for tomorrow, a lot of people are about to be very excited when Hollow Knight Silksong is shown off and dated during the presentation. We have seen Indie Worlds happen very close to a full on Nintendo Direct before, so it is very possible we could see a Nintendo in a week or two.

Like, come on, this chip being on 2020 architecture and being finalized early 2022 caused a lot of people in this thread to think this was releasing mid to late 2023.

Will be a little disappointing if this launches late 2025

Some of this depends on the node for T239. If its on 4N, it is a much more cutting edge SOC than if its on 8nm. Regardless, the technolgical advancements in this industry have slowed way down compared to prior generations. Not so long ago it was possible to release new hardware every 5-6 years, within a similar price point and offer consumers a generational upgrade. The improvements are starting to become much more incremental and honestly I think that is part of the reason we are seeing some consumer fatigue start to set in with gamers. Consumers simply arent getting wowed in the same way. Going from the PlayStation to the PS2 was incredible, but going from PS4 to PS5 is more similar to an Iphone upgrade. Sure, the newer model is better and nicer, but for the most part its very familiar to what I have had for a long time. For Nintendo, even if they were to have scrapped the T239 and built a brand new more advanced SOC, it would offer 2 x improvement at best. That is very much within the same generation. Basically like comparing the Dreamcast to the PS2, PS2 was more capable but it was not a generation ahead like comparing the PlayStation to the PS2.
 
It’d be a packed couple of months if we end up with an Indie in April, General in May and reveal in June!



Switch was revealed in October. They can still reveal by then
something tells me the production pipeline will be commence around late summer and that's when it'll get announced. earlier than the OG Switch but that's based on the last Funcle intel & speculation the delay is more software related so they'll use the extra time to stockpile. perhaps something pointing to it in the FY forecast if we're lucky.
 
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Yes, but Shuntaro Furukawa himself has said that we should not expect the same sort or announcement/marketing cycle

And even if Nintendo were to hypothetically confirm the successor’s existence May 7th, a possible year before release, it’d probably be because of the unique circumstance that the console is on its 8th year, with no news of successor, and a not si outstanding Holiday 2024 expectation
To be fair that was in response to a question about how the NX was announced in early 2015,
But might also apply here, their big new system of 2016 was the NES Mini, and they never gave investors a heads up about that.
 
Eh, I feel like Nintendo could reasonably get away with pushing out a PR statement at the end of the month confirming that the thing will drop at the end of fiscal year and then just... not say anything else about the console until January (driving everyone in this forum insane in the process). Granted, they probably won't if only because third-parties will want to start announcing that their 2025 titles will be on the hardware no later than TGS in September, which could pressure Nintendo to at least do a reveal trailer by then that teases their own first-party titles. But even if they decide to do a reveal trailer this year, I firmly believe that we aren't going to see any marketing blitz for the Switch 2 until the holidays are over, if the console is indeed March 2025.
if it's dropping this FY they have to announce it much earlier than this, mass production would start in Fall at the latest so there would be leaks galore by year end.
 
It’d be a packed couple of months if we end up with an Indie in April, General in May and reveal in June!



Switch was revealed in October. They can still reveal by then
yup but we should expect a lot more rumbling by then. if it's literally radio silence in all directions when we get to September this FY will be a ??
 
Yes, I would expect some of the larger 3d games to increase their development time by about a year, while most small to medium sized games won't see much change.
Absolutely. I think there's gonna be some initially slow dev time because of next gen growing pains, but after that it'll be business as usual. The dev time saving if Nintendo moves to a full RT pipeline is going to be immense, and as a result the full dev cycle of the game may not get much longer provided the scope of the game isn't massive.
 
if it's dropping this FY they have to announce it much earlier than this, mass production would start in Fall at the latest so there would be leaks galore by year end.
Good point, wasn't thinking about that. I retract the "maybe" part of us getting a reveal trailer by the end of September.

Yes, but Shuntaro Furukawa himself has said that we should not expect the same sort or announcement/marketing cycle
I always felt like that was more in regards to the fact they announced it as an aside in a press conference about an entire different subject matter. Like, "we're doing a partnership with DeNA to make mobile games, btw we're still making consoles don't panic, and here's what that partnership will entail." They announced it when and how they did because they felt it was needed in order to clarify their business model going forward, and that is a unique scenario we shouldn't expect again anytime soon, hence his statement. They aren't going to put themselves in a situation again where they have to talk about their next console before they're truly ready to just to clarify or bring peace-of-mind regarding some other business move. A good number of Nintendo's consoles have been announced in press statements ahead of hardware reveals before, so to do that again with the Switch 2 wouldn't be an enigma.

2024-04-16-11-24-47-www-nintendo-co-jp-4147d417ed60.jpg
 
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New Digital Foundry video showcasing DLSS 3.7 - including the new 'E' preset - and XeSS 1.3.
TL;DR: DP4a XeSS 1.3 (XeSS without hardware support) > FSR 2. XeSS 1.3 has less ghosting and less pixelation on water than 1.2. The XMX path (XeSS with hardware) is a cut above the DP4a path and also looks better in 1.3, but the bulk of the improvements are in the DP4a path. Still some weird quirks though, so there's a long way to go.

For DLSS, as we theorized, 'E' is a rendering mode in between 'D' and 'C'. Eliminates the smearing effects from 'D' but without killing the AA like 'C' does.
 
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