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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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JoshuaJSlone said:
This make me want to math some. Switch OLED model with Joy-Cons is 0.93 pounds, Steam Deck 1.48 pounds. If they were to keep something with the density of OLED and scale it equally in all three dimensions, they could go about 16% farther in each before getting to Deck weight. If they wanted to keep thickness the same (dock compatibility!), the other two dimensions could go about 26% farther in length and height before getting to Deck weight. If it is a 7.91" screen, at least that part would be 13% beyond OLED.

We all know portables are big in Japan, but is there reason to believe we've seen a size ceiling in what portables they'll accept? New 3DS and New 3DS LL launched on the same day, and LL outsold it handily. Switch was bigger than the GBs and DSs before it, and that didn't cause a problem.

Assuming shipment values go in a straight line between known numbers is definitely inaccurate, but the fastest-shipped so far seem to gather around 17 or 18 million through a calendar year. And in most cases, yeah, I think the market easily would've accepted millions more if they were able to.
Au9MlVO.png


I don't think that's so certain. The most anything launched in October or later has shipped by March is PS5, with 7.8m. The most anything launched in October or later by Nintendo has shipped by March is Wii, with 5.84. It looks like the fastest Nintendo (or anybody) has shipped 10 million anything is probably GBA, but that was still 200+ days past launch.
c9DKNLu.png
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Wow those are some really interesting graphs and information , thanks!

Your point is valid 10 million shipped consoles in the first two quarters, after the launch, is going to be challenging and I have to admit I am biased, I want as many people have this new console in their hands as possible in the shortest period of time ; still 10 million new switches is still manageable for some factual reasons and not only my hopes ^_^

On one side the lowest historical shipment for Q3 and Q4 of the switch would put the total shipments around 9.9 million consoles. I think Nintendo could do something similar with the successor.
As you point PS5 was able to ship 8 million consoles in 2 quarters, after the launch, and I think Nintendo can do better because:
  • PS was shipped in the middle of pandemic, making resource planning/production/storage and shipment very difficult and uncertain, this will not be the case for the switch 2 (Do not get me wrong, there is a lot happening in the world, but Nintendo can now start to plan around it)
  • The Switch 2 would have ca.1 month more at disposal ( PS 5 launched on 12/19 Nov)
  • the most important aspect, I am presuming that the stockpile of the new switch for the launch is going be quite significant in comparison to the original switch ( which was 2.75 units in march 2017) . This is based on the reporting of VGC based on multiple sources :
"According to multiple people with knowledge of Nintendo’s next-gen console plans, the company is likely to release new hardware during the second half of 2024, to ensure that it has ample stock available on day one and to avoid the kind of shortages seen with PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S."

Those were my rational arguments for October!

Still a September launch is also likely for several reasons, in fact in my previous post, I also predicted September as a possible launch, for the fallowing reason:
  • It would still fit in the predicted 10 million consoles shipped , and it would still fall in the efficient allocation of resources category ( not to many or not too little consoles shipped given the timeframe )
  • It would give Nintendo a good financial bump in the Q2 of their fiscal year
  • it would permit them more freedom from the logistics point of view
  • Gives Nintendo more buffer between launch rush and holiday shopping, though they'll definitely mix a bit.

As it stands, your graphs, added more information to the shipping data , and in my opinion reinforce that October or September will be the launch of the new Switch.

I have to be honest, I was hoping for an earlier launch.....
If I take it one step further, does that mean we get the new 3D Mario in Sept/October and the cross-gen Metroid in November? hm....
 
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After a good while I decided to play Koizumi style:

etohbhZ.png
And for the first time while playing like this I found myself thinking "what if the joy-cons 2.0 were taller?"
It was only then that I realized how perfectly these current joy-cons fit on my hand. If they were just taller (even by just 1 centimeter) it would completely ruin the way I hold them.

It would change from this:
The highlighted part is what makes all the difference in ergonomics for me

vDET8o6.png

To something like this:
3gEC6os.png

They would need to make others changes so I could appreciate taller joy-cons. Well, whatever design they chose to come with, I can only hope they nailed it. Anyway, I just wanted to praise the current design when used like this (at least for hands mid-size like mine lol)
 
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robertman2 said:
I haven't used Joy-Cons in years. Dropped them as soon as I had a Pro controller, and a split pad pro for handheld
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I still use the joy-cons for multiplayer, but other than that I'm just like you (split pad + pro con)

But playing koizumi style is extremely relaxing, in a way a pro con can't replicate.

But then, after 15 min playing, the buttons on it remind me why I got a pro con in the first place.
 
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Giancarlo said:
what will be the shareholders reactions, if by june theres no mention of Switch sucessor,will they undertand or they will be perplexed Nintendo refuse to knowledge it next hardware?
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Depends on the context of what’s going on at the time. If there is a really good reason (aka: Something terrible going on in the world) then no we won’t. We are jackasses but we aren’t stupid. (Lol). If everything is cool and still radio silence then we go full jackass.

You never want to see a shareholder go full jackass. Ask Ryan Cohen.
 
crazybenjamin said:
The issue is that if the device is larger in any dimension, that kinda diminishes the appeal of a Mini
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I think that is subjective. Personally I don‘t mind a thicker phone if the height and width are still small, because I could still use it with one hand. I know of course that companies will built the size that will be bought by the majority. It is still sad to see that the last mini phones died with the iPhone 13 mini and I think soon the iPhone SE. According to early rumors the next SE will also be bigger. I won‘t even talk about Android because the last small phone was the Pixel 5 in 2020
 
Multiverse said:
Also, I decided to take a closer look at some PS4 pro games and Horizon Forbidden West looks so bad. The cutscenes are mostly fine (beautiful even) but in-game looks so weird to me. Honestly, worse than Xenoblade interms of blurryness. Xenoblade is kinda blurry, but it’s quite uniformed. It’s not as headache inducing.

Horizon is very weird. It’s overly detailed but also blurry at the same time. Aloy is blurry in comparison to the background and it gets even worse when she moves. That effect is just so off-putting and headache inducing to me. Why did they do that???
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TAA? man i miss 8xMSAA in modern games
 
Kise Ryota said:
After a good while I decided to play Koizumi style:

etohbhZ.png
And for the first time while playing like this I found myself thinking "what if the joy-cons 2.0 were taller?"
It was only then that I realized how perfectly these current joy-cons fit on my hand. If they were just taller (even by just 1 centimeter) it would completely ruin the way I hold them.

It would change from this:
The highlighted part is what makes all the difference in ergonomics for me

vDET8o6.png

To something like this:
3gEC6os.png

They would need to make others changes so I could appreciate taller joy-cons. Well, whatever design they chose to come with, I can only hope they nailed it. Anyway, I just wanted to praise the current design when used like this (at least for hands mid-size like mine lol)
Click to expand...
Consider how different in size and shape Wii Remote and Nunchuk were, but they still felt nice to do this with. I think a grip on the rear will help ergonomics considerably in every mode.
 
You know what the Switch 2 needs to have? Two types of docks. One for streaming to the TV and charging, and a second one that only charges. Like that charging dock of the 3DS. While one is to have next to the TV, the other one sits on your nightstand next to bed. That way it would be much easier for people who play in Handheld Mode. They can play in bed for a couple of minutes before going to sleep, and when the time comes, they just put it in their charging dock, so they have a full battery life when waking up.

3ds-charging-cradle.1136742769.cover.jpg

Imagine this for Switch 2, but as a seperate product from the system/bundle itself.
 
carbvan said:
Gonna be that guy again - are we getting a Sony predictions podcast before the Nintendo related podcast then?
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I believe on Twitter he already answered that in the negative. So I’m hopeful for this week 🤞🏻

Correction - he said the episode they recorded last week was not PS related
 
woodhead said:
I think that is subjective. Personally I don‘t mind a thicker phone if the height and width are still small, because I could still use it with one hand. I know of course that companies will built the size that will be bought by the majority. It is still sad to see that the last mini phones died with the iPhone 13 mini and I think soon the iPhone SE. According to early rumors the next SE will also be bigger. I won‘t even talk about Android because the last small phone was the Pixel 5 in 2020
Click to expand...
If you're talking in absolute terms, Android has the smallest smartphone on the market. That's different to having the smallest FLAGSHIP, of course, but it's not like the UniHertz Jelly line doesn't exist. The Jelly Star is rocking 3" of multitouch.

Where it's relevant to Nintendo, comfort portability and size interact in the opposite way too, where you can make a device larger so long as it's thin. This is why I don't expect the NG Switch to increase in thickness at all, it would affect portability far too much and introduce a host of other problems. In theory it could decrease in thickness, but I don't think that's likely. Maybe the NG Lite will be thinner this time.
 
Baobab said:
You can find the shipments of the Switch per fiscal Quarter on Installbase forum from Luminoth, the source is Nintendo, i will attach them here:

pXLjSzC.png


in the FY 2017/2018 nintendo shipped:
  • 7,3 Million consoles in the third quarter(Oct-Dec)
  • 2.9 Million consoles in the fourth quarter(Jan-march)
That would be 10.2 million consoles total.
That is actually the minimum quantity of Switch consoles shipped by nintendo for the switch for Q3 and and Q4 in a fiscal year. Which makes sense since that was the first holiday season of the console and the production and logistics improve and get better with time.

For Reference PS5 managed to ship around 8 million consoles in their first 2 quarters( holiday 2020 to march 2021)

Given this reporting from Bloomberg:



An estimate of 10 million + of consoles shipped in a fiscal year( so until march 2025) makes it practically certain that the launch of the console is going to happen in the last two quarters of the fiscal year, which means starting from October 2024.
If you think Nintendo can add 2-3 million of consoles to that estimated, 10 million, number from Bloomberg, because the demand is going to be huge and Nintendo will be willing to pay for additional storage of units for the launch, you would still fall with the earliest launch in September.
Indeed for historical reference, the switch at launch, managed to ship 2,7 million units in march of 2017.


Of course, the shipment numbers for the new switch won't 100% reflect the shipments per quarter in 2017/2018, but the total numbers of shipped consoles will probably be in a similar ball-park, but probably a bit more skewed towards Q4 (jan-March 2025) due to the logistics involved in launching a new product.
So something like:
  • 6,5 million for Q3
  • 3,5 million for Q4
My prediction based on this reporting would be:
Announcement: March/April
Reveal: June
Launch: October/September
Click to expand...

If we go by that chart, and the 14mil Switch 2 prediction, then it looks more like a Q1/Q2 release.

But maybe Q1 is out of the question now. Can we get March reveal and a May release? 🤔
 
TLZ said:
If we go by that chart, and the 14mil Switch 2 prediction, then it looks more like a Q1/Q2 release.

But maybe Q1 is out of the question now. Can we get March reveal and a May release? 🤔
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The 14 million was the estimated number of screen produced in the fiscal year.
Of those 14 million only a portion will get assembled and shipped again to reach the retailers in time for the end of the fiscal year.
the screen has to be produced, then the batch has to be shipped somewhere else to get assembled, the switch 2 is now ready and is placed in storage, the switch 2 then gets shipped to retailers. These operations require time.

that is why the 10 million number of shipped consoles is interesting and we can compare it to historical data of the switch 1 or other consoles.
 
Apenknul said:
You know what the Switch 2 needs to have? Two types of docks. One for streaming to the TV and charging, and a second one that only charges. Like that charging dock of the 3DS. While one is to have next to the TV, the other one sits on your nightstand next to bed. That way it would be much easier for people who play in Handheld Mode. They can play in bed for a couple of minutes before going to sleep, and when the time comes, they just put it in their charging dock, so they have a full battery life when waking up.

3ds-charging-cradle.1136742769.cover.jpg

Imagine this for Switch 2, but as a seperate product from the system/bundle itself.
Click to expand...
Nintendo could certainly sell this as an independent piece of hardware. Maybe even endorse a third party one with the Nintendo Seal of Approval
 
Apenknul said:
Imagine this for Switch 2, but as a seperate product from the system/bundle itself.
Click to expand...

QI charging support would go up to 15W, and with QI2 also being very recent, perhaps they cool cook up a solution?
I think that falls into your desires, but it might not be that fast, although what I’m saying sounds like a mid gen refresh thing.
But those contact prongs they used for the 3DS is likely not possible given the higher voltage for charging, the idea is ofc that it would fall into the dock without you needing to plug anything.
Idk what other easy way they could create
 
bloopland33 said:
Where was that? I went on a fami/era fast the past week because I was checking in here too much haha so I may have missed a comment or something
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There was a twitter reply he made a couple days ago:

Q: Does this coincide with anything in the Bloomberg article?

Nate: Slightly

(he could be sarcastically understating it, or maybe it's not the full Nintendo episode...just sharing what I found)
 
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brainchild said:
While you are correct on the differences here, as I understand, NVIDIA does not want it to always be the case that the technology to address the upscaling issue is fragmented with different solutions; they would prefer a holistic solution (full neural rendering) and have already stated at some point they imagine that DLSS will evolve into something like that in the future. In order words, upscaling is not the end goal for DLSS. Whether they achieve that goal or not remains to be seen but if there's any company that can pull it off, I believe it is them.



SOURCE
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The million-dollar question is whether this is actually possible or practical for games. While I imagine that Nvidia would very much want it to be the case that the RTX 9090 will be able to neurally render everything in 64K at 5040 FPS and convince every AMD executive to throw themselves into the ocean, at the end of the day, neural networks are just a tool. They're good at some things and bad at others, and at least some of the rendering pipeline will require the simple math and logic that's done much more effectively by traditional computing.
 
Hosermess said:
There was a twitter reply he made a couple days ago:

Q: Does this coincide with anything in the Bloomberg article?

Nate: Slightly

(he could be sarcastically understating it, or maybe it's not the full Nintendo episode...just sharing what I found)
Click to expand...
I just read this today and had already forgotten it haha thanks for pointing it out
 
Apenknul said:
You know what the Switch 2 needs to have? Two types of docks. One for streaming to the TV and charging, and a second one that only charges. Like that charging dock of the 3DS. While one is to have next to the TV, the other one sits on your nightstand next to bed. That way it would be much easier for people who play in Handheld Mode. They can play in bed for a couple of minutes before going to sleep, and when the time comes, they just put it in their charging dock, so they have a full battery life when waking up.

3ds-charging-cradle.1136742769.cover.jpg

Imagine this for Switch 2, but as a seperate product from the system/bundle itself.
Click to expand...
Charging cradle this or that, Nintendo Switch's official charging cradle is Nintendo Switch Dock. It works fine without the HDMI cable plugged in after all.

Moreover, there's already SEVERAL, some official, like the Nintendo Switch Adjustable Charging Stand.

ziggyrivers said:
Nintendo could certainly sell this as an independent piece of hardware. Maybe even endorse a third party one with the Nintendo Seal of Approval
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I believe that's what they did, the Adjustable Charging Stand and Adjustable Charging USB Hub are both made by Hori, no?

That said, I think I agree that it should use the super easy to seat spring loaded USB connector and platform that the Dock has, but the Adjustable Charging Stand, and I'd say probably the OG dock, are unlikely to be incompatible with NG Switch. Why stop USB C, and at that point, why change accessory keying when GBA to DS didn't even do that?

On the subject, I wonder what people would think if the NG Switch had a "reimagined" Dock, as less of a screen covering, form changing branding keystone and more as a simple breakout box they sell for say, fifty quid. They change the styling so that it just holds the device straight upright, fully visible and easy to remove. Could even make it stylish. The New Nintendork 3DS XL charging cradle seemed to have either influenced or stemmed from the design of Nintendo Switch Dock, just look at this thing, but I think it actually looks a lot better than the Nintendo Switch Dock.


2874613-cradle.jpg


Ultimately I think we're in for nothing more than a slight redesign for the dock, I doubt it even breaks compatibility across the generation, because why bother. The covering of the screen is an important part of the brand I doubt they want to abandon for the sake of a lighter dock. Could even be the Dock with LAN Port from OLED Model, either in a new shell or just a new faceplate... Or no change at all, and they discontinue the Neon OLED Model so the black Dock with LAN Port comes with NG, and the white with OLED Switch 1.
 
Apenknul said:
You know what the Switch 2 needs to have? Two types of docks. One for streaming to the TV and charging, and a second one that only charges. Like that charging dock of the 3DS. While one is to have next to the TV, the other one sits on your nightstand next to bed. That way it would be much easier for people who play in Handheld Mode. They can play in bed for a couple of minutes before going to sleep, and when the time comes, they just put it in their charging dock, so they have a full battery life when waking up.

3ds-charging-cradle.1136742769.cover.jpg

Imagine this for Switch 2, but as a seperate product from the system/bundle itself.
Click to expand...
Like the Wii U Gamepad charging station?
 
eye0h said:
I don't think he is lol. Raccoon has been doomposting about anything larger than the OLED for a very long while now, it's quite funny to see.

To be fair this isn't necessarily a hype thread
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Oh, it will be, once we finally get that reveal trailer.
 
Apenknul said:
You know what the Switch 2 needs to have? Two types of docks. One for streaming to the TV and charging, and a second one that only charges. Like that charging dock of the 3DS. While one is to have next to the TV, the other one sits on your nightstand next to bed. That way it would be much easier for people who play in Handheld Mode. They can play in bed for a couple of minutes before going to sleep, and when the time comes, they just put it in their charging dock, so they have a full battery life when waking up.

3ds-charging-cradle.1136742769.cover.jpg

Imagine this for Switch 2, but as a seperate product from the system/bundle itself.
Click to expand...

108143_alt3
 
H1 appears to be dying a painful death. The month draws by with little but scraps for the hungry Drake hounds.
We need a hero
We need a Funcle
 
Switcharoo said:
Does this guy have any sources really? What's his track record? All I know he searches Linkden pages to get hints regarding Switch 2/Drake's development.
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Never spoken to Doctre, but he's clearly smart. I wish he had more of a technical background, just because he's a good detective. While I think his analysis doesn't always hold up, he's not a bullshitter.
 
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