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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
WeegeeTime64
Cappy
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- they/them
Clearly the real name is the Switch XL (40 in roman numerals)
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
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- he/him
Imo, January is probably the latest that they'll announce the system, and even then... I have my doubts that it'll take so long. As you said though, we'll have to see.
I won't die if I don't get an announcement tonight, but I'll sure as fuck explode in excitement if we do.
OctoSplattack
Chain Chomp
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Nintendo Switch II (Eye-Eye)
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
I go make some money for a few hours and its chaos...
carbvan
Chain Chomp
- Pronouns
- he/him
People seem to be convinced something is happening in the next 24 hours and I have no idea why.
I go make some money for a few hours and its chaos...
auxelectric
Green
Nintendo does tend to keep the main name for their handhelds so I do expect them to keep the Switch name with some kind of prefix or suffix to it.
Super Nintendo Switch would make the most sense and be a nod to history. They probably won’t do that though.
Nintendo Switch Too
Super Nintendo Switch would make the most sense and be a nod to history. They probably won’t do that though.
Nintendo Switch Too
lattjeful
Like Like
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- he/him
There are people younger than me in this thread? My God. And here I thought I was the baby of the thread for sharing a birth year with the GameCube.
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
We aren't the only one. Nintendo's stock is rising ahead of the report on the 6th. Its not uncommon for a stock to do that obviously but Nintendo's is acting strange for what it usually does.
Anyone interested in a chart?
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
That's right you son of a gun, I'm only 50 days older than Big Rigs: Over the Road Racing. Not only that, but I'm also insanely new to the whole "talking about video games" thing when compared to other people my age. I'm a special brand of child.
JesusSaves7
Cappy
Please!
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
I'm doing Business Management and Accounting at University, go ahead, I'll likely understand half of it.
P4bl0
Project Oz H2 2024
lattjeful
Like Like
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- he/him
Yes please. I'm sure my incredibly basic investing knowledge will let me read and understand every bit of it.
EDIT: @Shareholder Chad I know Nintendo has lowered their hardware forecasts in the recent past so high hardware sales are unlikely, but could the share price going up just be shareholders projecting good results, given Tears of the Kingdom's and (allegedly) Mario Wonder's success? I don't own any Nintendo shares nor do I really have my ear to the ground when it comes to the investment/day trading world so I'm just curious.
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
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lol
lol
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- She/Her
lattjeful
Like Like
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- he/him
If it helps I started re-evaluating mine when people started referring to the Xbox 360 - a console I grew up playing and distinctly remember being the first home console I got excited about pre-release - as a retro console.
Well you're younger and know more about all this stuff than I do, so it's time to break out some textbooks and documentation LOL
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
Alright, Ill mention what all this crap means.
First off, This is Nintendo's ADR stock called NTDOY. Simple explanation is its a "holding" that gets the real thing from Japan. It is has been declining since 2021 and this is normal because the markets in general have been downtrending. The two thin white lines show a channel in which it has been downtrending. If this path were to continue, We would see the thick bold white line happen but it isn't. The green line is happening.
This is hinting at a break of the channel. This usually happens coinciding with big news. (Switch 2 reveal? Lets hope) because thats usually what it takes to break multi-year trend lines. The last few months of price action is not common. It keeps banging against the upper trend line indicating investors are awaiting a breakout (aka: big news).
Ignore the rainbow lines, That is Fibonacci ratio's that help me find lines where the stock might reverse. I also added a funny thing I did in 2022
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
I mistyped and meant to say younger- but don't worry, it's not by much.
I just assumed you were older because you seem a little more put together than myself, hahaha. Thank you for the compliments.
LuigiBlood
Mage Robot
I never understood stocks. Does stock even react in before something unannounced, did it always mean something is about to happen?
Aren't stocks just always reacting after something?
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so I just read the last several pages to check if something was happening to make the thread move so fast and what I found out is mainly that everyone here needs some serious salvation in their lives
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
Stocks are kind of vibes based, but investors have a financial interest in being extremely informed. An unexpected increase in a stock price can be random noise or variation, or it can be some shareholders learning something the public doesn't and acting on it because they think it'll make Nintendo money, and thus push the price higher.
darthdiablo
+5 Death Stare
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- he/him
Yes, stocks often run up in anticipation of unannounced news for whatever reasons. Then when the positive announcement happens, stock often falls (speculators cashing in their profits from the run-up, selling). But investors can be wrong too, just like us.
I don't do this kind of short term analysis crap with my investments. Too stressful and time consuming. I just buy boring passively-managed index funds and hold for years lol. Worked out very well for me, I never have to check in to the investing news and mind my own business but it's definitely not as exciting as anyone doing short-term trades or even daytrading..
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
Well...
Insider trades are a big thing. They get major news early and buy or sell depending on what it is. What im about to say is pure speculation but I think the chart I posted above is indicating that the cat is out of the bag and there are people buying NTDOY in preparation of a big event. Again, This is speculation and I can be wrong but this is what years of experience charting stocks has shown me.
This also doesn't mean Im thinking it gets revealed this month either.
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
Nailed it.
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
Hmm, very funky.
Alright, Ill mention what all this crap means.
First off, This is Nintendo's ADR stock called NTDOY. Simple explanation is its a "holding" that gets the real thing from Japan. It is has been declining since 2021 and this is normal because the markets in general have been downtrending. The two thin white lines show a channel in which it has been downtrending. If this path were to continue, We would see the thick bold white line happen but it isn't. The green line is happening.
This is hinting at a break of the channel. This usually happens coinciding with big news. (Switch 2 reveal? Lets hope) because thats usually what it takes to break multi-year trend lines. The last few months of price action is not common. It keeps banging against the upper trend line indicating investors are awaiting a breakout (aka: big news).
Ignore the rainbow lines, That is Fibonacci ratio's that help me find lines where the stock might reverse. I also added a funny thing I did in 2022
I think that the break (using your phrasing, I'm not experienced enough in the market to understand all the terms) is happening because of that meeting that's happening soon rather than the announcement of the Switch 2. If we don't get any significant news, then the line will likely all back within the trend lines, but if we get any information about the Switch 2 in that meeting, then the break will happen and it'll start rising rapidly even if it's as simple as "We expect to show a trailer for the Switch 2 within the coming weeks".
I believe that's what's happening here btw. Stockholders are predicting something for that meeting. If we get a sudden Switch 2 trailer though, we can expect a leap.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
Salvation? I'd rather salivated over a juicy new bit of hardware.
LuigiBlood
Mage Robot
Isn't getting news early like that and buying/selling stocks in reaction illegal, actually? What's the line about it?
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
Afaik, it is illegal. Several higher-ups at game companies have been investigated (Bo Andersson at Overkill) or arrested (Yuji Naka) in the past. In this instance with the stock-fluctuations and potential break, it's just stockholders acting in anticipation for the shareholder meeting.
lattjeful
Like Like
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- he/him
Shareholder Chad could explain a million times better than I could, but afaik it's a bit of both? They can go down if results are bad, they can have a brief surge before a report if investors expect growth/good results, etc. It helps knowing what investors are thinking/expecting to know when to buy and sell, and what's happening around the industry/field/market said company is operating in.
Also helps just generally having knowledge of the field/industry said company is operating in too. For example, I made some easy money during the whole GameStop fiasco a few years ago because I noticed that GameStop's share price surges whenever a new console generation was starting, and so I bought some since the PS5 and Xbox Series X were announced with the intention of selling for a small bit of change when the systems released. Had no idea about the potential short squeeze, wallstreetbets BS, etc.
And that's just buying and selling. That's not getting into stuff like options, dividends, etc. It's both simpler and more complex than you'd think.
If it's buying/selling due to inside info (insider trading) that is not yet been made to investors, yes. If it's just in anticipation of things like good earnings reports, or a company has made a public announcement about a product (i.e. Nintendo announcing a new system or game), no.
There can still be chatter and speculation that can be made (think something like NateDrake/NateTheHate's "Friend-DA") but as long as there isn't explicit planning to drive prices up, it's okay.
I think idk I'm kinda talking out of my ass.
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
Illegal activities still happen and affect stock prices, while the legal definition of insider trading is intentionally precise, and more casual "well I heard this" type info can spread around investors without anyone EXPLICITLY conspiring to leak data for profit.
Of course, this varies by country, I'm not a broker nor lawyer, and this is not financial advice.
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
Sure you are not wrong. I just think the price action is tipping the scales toward "Big thing happening".
Edit: To better explain, The price action usually hits the upper trend line and falls down, Not consistently banging against it.
Extremely illegal. The creator of Sonic, Yuji Naka was arrested for this. Giving out information allowing people to frontrun announcements. This was for Square Enix.
Its my job to find weird price action on a chart that suggests somebody knows something and match their moves. Sometimes I'm right. Sometimes I'm wrong. Sometimes traders talk shit and I catch wind of it.
Kise Ryota
Bob-omb
Slow down, people. This is moving too fast. I fear I won't be able to keep up with the thread, missing if something new happens.
darthdiablo
+5 Death Stare
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- he/him
Of course, this varies by country, I'm not a broker nor lawyer, and this is not financial advice.
Instructions unclear, I now own pork futures in the state of Iowa?
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Depends. I’m not an expert but my understanding is…
If the information is leaked broadly it essentially becomes public domain. At that point it’s going to quickly impact the stock prices so kind of first come first served on hearing about it and acting.
If an individual working at a company trades informed by confidential information, or leaks it privately and has somebody else trade on their behalf, that’s very much insider trading.
Edit: Yuji Naka was just recently sentenced to prison for insider trading. Purchased shares of some companies ahead of mobile releases they were tied to I think.
LuigiBlood
Mage Robot
So basically, it's illegal to react to something nobody knows in the public yet, but somehow if you notice stock trading like that (devoid of context) you are still allowed to react to it because you had no idea.
That said you're also allowed to react to info that I gave for example because technically, it's public info and hearsay.
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
Probably best not to take financial advice from people on the internet. That being said, you're pretty right. This is actually also a reason why leaks are so dangerous to company stock-value. A bad leak or investigation or report can seriously damage a company. Nintendo is quite lucky in this case because the "leaks" are very minor and more conspiracy-board like.Illegal activities still happen and affect stock prices, while the legal definition of insider trading is intentionally precise, and more casual "well I heard this" type info can spread around investors without anyone EXPLICITLY conspiring to leak data for profit.
Of course, this varies by country, I'm not a broker nor lawyer, and this is not financial advice.
Sorry if I sound like I'm speaking the obvious, I'm just trying my best to contribute something. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see how massively this chart could change in the coming weeks... well days at this point. Potentially minutes if the crackpot theories have meant anything.
Bo Andersson from Overkill Software was also investigated by the Swedish police and had his home raided. While he was cleared, it's still a clear-cut case of this shit being taken very seriously.
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Laws are different from country to country. Where I live, insider trading is generally illegal unless the insider is informed by speculation rather than material information.
The rules are complex but in a nutshell, the line is drawn by how you are connected to the company and how you obtained the information. If you as a buyer or seller profit off another person from knowing and not disclosing confidential information that would otherwise probably have affected market value, it is usually a criminal offence.
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
Sort of. I can "react" to it because its still pure speculation on my part. Its "informed guessing" based on trends and hours of charting and noticing patterns.
You, Nate, Necro, etc. is a gray area. Since you are putting it out in a public domain, It is likely safe. If you were to PM me this information, That might be dangerous. Its why I keep my distance from Nate's posts. Also yours falls under "research" more so which is 100% legal and ok if you were to "PM" me that info. (Using the PM as an example of information travel)
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
That "research" comment is actually something I wanted to check. If it's research using public domain information, then that's just completely fine?
I mean, it's not exactly getting "100% real and exclusive information" if you spent around 5 months looking at shipping information and using track-record to make guesses, especially since someone else did most of the work for you.
darthdiablo
+5 Death Stare
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- he/him
Correct. When I used to work for a public company at HQ office, we often get notice of restriction of ability to make trades, for anti-insider trading compliance purposes. We often get those notices well in advance of news of our own company.
I think that's how things get leaked out there maybe.. someone hears about us being restricted, they act on that info.
(I hope I'm remembering those details correct.. I haven't worked for a public company in nearly 20 years)
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because games would need a third mode to account for the 720p screen. with the Lite running a smaller battery, running games at a resolution higher than the screen would be a needless waste of resources
Dmax3901
Octorok
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- He/Him
I guarantee every single shareholder making that green line happen is reading this thread. Famiboards directly influencing global finance/green lines worldwide.
Alright, Ill mention what all this crap means.
First off, This is Nintendo's ADR stock called NTDOY. Simple explanation is its a "holding" that gets the real thing from Japan. It is has been declining since 2021 and this is normal because the markets in general have been downtrending. The two thin white lines show a channel in which it has been downtrending. If this path were to continue, We would see the thick bold white line happen but it isn't. The green line is happening.
This is hinting at a break of the channel. This usually happens coinciding with big news. (Switch 2 reveal? Lets hope) because thats usually what it takes to break multi-year trend lines. The last few months of price action is not common. It keeps banging against the upper trend line indicating investors are awaiting a breakout (aka: big news).
Ignore the rainbow lines, That is Fibonacci ratio's that help me find lines where the stock might reverse. I also added a funny thing I did in 2022
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
- Pronouns
- he/him
If a bunch of Redditors managed to set Wall Street on fire for a week, we can probably make substantial and reliable predictions on a video game company through our combined knowledge and sharing of
Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
No worries. I expect fireworks for Nintendo's stock. Big up or Big down. Good callout on Bo. I forgot that one.
Any public research is 100% fine. Its why I don't really worry about participating here despite actively holding Nintendo stock. Nate's stuff is probably 100% fine too but Im super careful about it.
What if I told you...
I know 4 investors that keep active tabs on here. In this thread even.
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