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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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SoldierDelta said:
If a bunch of Redditors managed to set Wall Street on fire for a week, we can probably make substantial and reliable predictions on a video game company through our combined knowledge and sharing of cocaine information.
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Famiboards:

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Shareholder Chad said:
No worries. I expect fireworks for Nintendo's stock. Big up or Big down. Good callout on Bo. I forgot that one.
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Any chance to mention Bo is an opportunity I'll take. Dude was a walking case-study for a bit and I hate him personally and professionally.
Shareholder Chad said:
Any public research is 100% fine. Its why I don't really worry about participating here despite actively holding Nintendo stock. Nate's stuff is probably 100% fine too but Im super careful about it.
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As long as you don't get private information from them and don't allow them to influence your decisions, it should be fine. Fair moves though, especially considering the sheer amount of shit that people get into for insider trading. I know with confidence that getting your house raided isn't a great start to any week.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Hmm, very funky.
I think that the break (using your phrasing, I'm not experienced enough in the market to understand all the terms) is happening because of that meeting that's happening soon rather than the announcement of the Switch 2. If we don't get any significant news, then the line will likely all back within the trend lines, but if we get any information about the Switch 2 in that meeting, then the break will happen and it'll start rising rapidly even if it's as simple as "We expect to show a trailer for the Switch 2 within the coming weeks".

I believe that's what's happening here btw. Stockholders are predicting something for that meeting. If we get a sudden Switch 2 trailer though, we can expect a leap.
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One thing people forget though is that these bands are drawn ex-post, eg with all the information we have regarding the stock price as of today, so distorts a bit the perception of reality and makes it look like the stock price is hitting some walls, but it is largely by design.
These things are not supposed to work (like make money), and if they do economic theory says that it can only happen when everyone uses the same model (eg assume that prices evolve in the tunnel or whatever indicator).
The thing that makes you break a barrier/resistance is people buying financial products called options (in their vanilla form a guarantee that at a certain date you can purchase the stock at a guaranteed price), which acts effectively as the floor or the ceiling between which the asset price fluctuates. So Nintendo stock hitting "walls" could reflect just that, some people positioned to sell or buy once the price reaches a certain level.
In my humble experience, insider trading happens, but makes stocks move sooo little that it is barely perceptible, if at all.
Btw, if there was an announcement, financial markets would not know, as they really operate under little information (in any case not more than here), and are more assessing a fair level for the price based on the environment: macroeconomic developments, movements of interest rates, FX etc, and company specific factors (price/earning ratio, level of indebtedness, these days supply chain vulnerability etc).
Sorry for the long message, but it is just to say if the price looks like it s moving, maybe people are expecting something, but it is certainly not as clear cut as "they've know an announcement is coming". They are not wizards
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Well...

Insider trades are a big thing. They get major news early and buy or sell depending on what it is. What im about to say is pure speculation but I think the chart I posted above is indicating that the cat is out of the bag and there are people buying NTDOY in preparation of a big event. Again, This is speculation and I can be wrong but this is what years of experience charting stocks has shown me.

This also doesn't mean Im thinking it gets revealed this month either.
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What I find ironic is how insider trading is illegal, but people who have no idea can still essentially bet on changes and be like "that looks like insider trading I'm gonna bet that it is and buy/sell more stock" and that's somehow legal lol
 
darthdiablo said:
Famiboards:

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Don't do that lol

SoldierDelta said:
If a bunch of Redditors managed to set Wall Street on fire for a week, we can probably make substantial and reliable predictions on a video game company through our combined knowledge and sharing of cocaine information.
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REALLY don't do that. Not only will it not work because Nintendo is a Japanese company and much more stable than Gamestop but people will be burned when it returns to the mean.
Lugia667 said:
insider trading is a very big accusation you know, even for this thread that's out there
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Who is accusing who? I mentioned it because its very real. Very common. Very dangerous.

Foltzie said:
What tool are you using?
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Tradingview
 
Shareholder Chad said:
REALLY don't do that. Not only will it not work because Nintendo is a Japanese company and much more stable than Gamestop but people will be burned when it returns to the mean.
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Don't worry, we're all at least aware of how dangerous and abnormal the Gamestop situation was. I was joking... even if the "band together and make predictions" comment is literally what we're doing now, albeit without the stock market factoring into it much.
 
Ryoku said:
My heart skipped a beat when I scrolled to this 😭
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Just means it was posted at half past the hour.

17 minutes to go until
disappointment.

Edit:

Whoops, timezones did me a turnabout.
 
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P4bl0 said:
1 hour 16 minutes

They tweeted at 10:30 AM Tokyo time
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I'm not staying up for that!

Oh who am I kidding, I wouldn't be asleep anyway.

I forgot that we jumped back an hour recently, while the original announcement was during our DST.

Still doubt it though.
 
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lattjeful said:
Yes please. I'm sure my incredibly basic investing knowledge will let me read and understand every bit of it.

EDIT: @Shareholder Chad I know Nintendo has lowered their hardware forecasts in the recent past so high hardware sales are unlikely, but could the share price going up just be shareholders projecting good results, given Tears of the Kingdom's and (allegedly) Mario Wonder's success? I don't own any Nintendo shares nor do I really have my ear to the ground when it comes to the investment/day trading world so I'm just curious.
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That is possible. I wouldn't call it likely though. Its common knowledge Nintendo will release a system in 2024. If I know my fellow investors, Those greedy fucks are looking at a hardware announcement and launch trying to frontrun it with stock purchases.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Don't do that lol
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No worries I won't. I abandoned the idea of daytrading nearly 2 decades ago. I've dabbled into it all.. quantitive investing, SMA vs EMA crossovers, candlesticks, even options trading. Just to see what works well for me and find something I can stick with. Nothing seems to work for me, and worse, I find this activity was too time-consuming.

If I were to buy individual shares again like NTDOY, I would just ask myself, "will Nintendo grow 5-10 years from now?" and buy (or not buy) shares based on that. Rather than buying or not based on which month Nintendo is releasing Switch 2, lol. But I don't even do individual stocks anymore either.

It've been index funds for me ever since and it has worked well. I realized that I needed an investing strategy that works for me without any action on my part over the long term, without me needing to check on company's financial wellness every now and then. I just buy the US market instead and ride on the broad market trends.

I hope it works out for you though! I still enjoy reading your analysis on the Nintendo stocks (because it was in a place I used to be and I'm able to follow every word and chart you share) :)
 
Andre3333456 said:
Geno.png
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Geno says something with no solid basis or justification, because a multinational company isn't moving the date they reveal a whole platform to after an investor meeting because of a re-release of an SNES game.

If it happens after SMRPG releases, it definitely won't be BECAUSE OF SMRPG.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
That is possible. I wouldn't call it likely though. Its common knowledge Nintendo will release a system in 2024. If I know my fellow investors, Those greedy fucks are looking at a hardware announcement and launch trying to frontrun it with stock purchases.
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Curious, when (exactly) did Nintendo lower the hardware forecasts for this FY? (referring to the most recent lowering). I see they lowered Feb 7 2023, did they lower again after that?
 
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Suswave said:
lmao no
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If only I had read forward to see this message a half hour ago. This thread makes me want to advocate for a “shitpost” tag on in-thread messages andthe option to set them to ignore. And I’m not kidding.
NateDrake said:
Don't have well tuned sarcasm detectors, eh?
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TFW you forget Poe’s law exists.
Dakhil said:
Canon's most recent research paper (as shown below) on nanoimprint lithography gives a rough idea of how much cheaper nanoimprint lithography is compared to EUV lithography.
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Far as I can tell, this is about fab operation costs? And hey, if a fab costs $100 million to set up and use, a 10% reduction is $10 million saved over EUV, cool beans.
But as far as I can tell, this particular bit of data isn’t saying anything, for example, on the positive (or negative) real-world effect on yields for fab customers. Until all of that is known and tested, the savings to chip buyers sounds fairly unknown.
 
Skittzo said:
Remember how I said we'd need 3 days to get to page 2000?

Yeah nevermind it's happening by tomorrow
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I told you. A few hours ago you said that, and now Final Fantasy 6 has already released. Honestly man, you need better expectations.
 
last i left this thread we were over a decade away from my (and pokemon’s american) birth year.

now… yeesh!

edit: the thread feed is showing 100k posts to this thread now. you guys really went 🤪
 
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