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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Power consumption is likely same as original Switch, however, battery is likely to be 50% higher capacity, so I'd say 3.5Hrs in AAA titles is reasonable.

Wow, have batteries really improved that much? I was under the impression the tech had stagnated severely and most devices were relying on process node shrinks to hold on.
 
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In the palm of your freakin’ hands.
PS4 games still look incredible to me, people are crazy lol.
 
PS4 games still look incredible to me, people are crazy lol.
PS4 games look the same as current gen games to me, except current gen games run at 4k (sometimes). Maybe I'm disillusioned by being a PC guy but you show me a screenshot of a cross gen game and I probably wouldn't be able to tell unless you showed me it on a 4k display.
 
One point of consideration here is the rise of digital for Nintendo.
Third parties may also pressure for higher storage capacities so their games will be downloaded out of the box without the need for an additional spend for the consumer. That's assuming microSD is supported still, which we are assuming will be, but is not a guarantee unless Nintendo specifies it.

On that end, i feel like 4x over launch Switch of 32GB is bare minimum. They may go 4x over OLED instead, which would land us at 256
Yeah, I agree with you about the rise of digital. I'm a bit pessimistic about 512GB because

1. Nintendo historically offered lower storage history vs. their competitors. Wii U and Switch offered 8-64 GB, while PS3 and 360 offered 20-60GB at launch and 500 GB towards the end. PS4 and Xbone offered 500GB at launch, at least.

2. They take cost into consideration for mobile tech, and likely don't want to lose money and at least break even. Especially if they end up using 4nm TSMC. They are more risk-averse than Sony and MS when it comes to losing money per console sold (I believe they learned from 3DS and Wii U) But who knows?

256GB should be the bare minimum, and what I'm willing to accept, and 128GB would be really disappointing. I want 512GB, but I would be very surprised if we get it for $400 at launch. Right now, my expectation of Nintendo is to deliver the lowest out of everything (CPU/GPU/RAM clock speeds, resolution screen, storage speed, etc.). Fuck I wish I ended up being wrong though

I don't see the die size in that post. I forgot where he did mention it.
We can extrapolate the ray-tracing performance we can get on Switch 2 and PS5/SX/SS by using existing PC parts, and then we can compare how they perform relative to each other. This is by no means fully accurate, but it can give us some idea of what to expect as long as we don't focus on specific FPS numbers, but instead we focus on the relative performance to each other.

The closest GPU to the PS5 is a 6700xt. It has slightly more cores (2304 vs 2560), and in the video I'll link below it's running at 2.6GHz vs 2.2 on the PS5.

The 3050 mobile is (much) faster than the t239 on Switch 2, it has more cores (2048 vs 1536 shader cores), more ray-tracing cores (16 vs 12) and also runs at much higher clocks. In the second video below, the 3050 is consuming 40-45w and running at 1.8GHz, Switch 2 will probably run at 1.1GHz while docked.

The closest GPU to Series S is the 6500xt. It has fewer cores (1024 vs 1280 on Series S) but it usually runs at higher clocks on PC, so we can expect similar performance.

Minecraft RTX on a 6700xt (closest match to PS5):


Minecraft RTX on a 3050 mobile (closest match to Switch 2):


Minecraft RTX on a 6500xt (closest match to Series S):


If we compare the performance of each card relative to each other at ray-tracing, we get 6700xt (PS5) > 3050m (Switch 2) > 6500xt (Series S).

Let's keep in mind that the 6500xt is more similar to the Series S performance-wise than the other two cards are to their respective consoles, so the actual ray-tracing performance of the t239 should be closer to Series S than the difference between the 6500xt and the 3050 mobile in the videos. The gap between PS5 and the 6700xt is not that big, but the gap between the 3050 mobile and the t239 is more substantial, so take that into consideration while comparing.

If we take all that into consideration, and extrapolate those PC numbers to consoles, Switch 2 will probably perform as well as - or slightly better than - a Series S at pure ray-tracing, but it won't match the PS5, even with the advantage of using dedicated ray-tracing cores.

I think you might mixed up the 3050 Ti mobile GPU with a desktop version of 3050 in some areas. 3050 TI mobile GPU does have 2048 cores and 16 RT cores, but only goes up to 5.5 Tflops and the clock speed goes to 1343 Mhz. Meanwhile 3050 8GB Mobile goes up to 9 tflops and clock speed goes to 1777Mhz (identical to the clock speed you mentioned).

If my math check out, 33% more cores and 22% more speed (assuming Switch 2 is 1.1.Ghz) makes it closer to 3050 TI mobile being ~60% faster than the Switch 2. That sounds pretty close (3.4 Tflops at 1.1GHz for Switch 2 vs almost 5.5 Tflops on 3050 Ti mobile)

 
I once owned a GTX 750Ti.

In retrospect, it might have been the best GPU I ever had. It was low profile with no additional pin connectors, so I could plug it in any computer and instantly transform it into a potent 1080p gaming machine.

It would be unbelievable if I had this kind of power in my hands. Throw in DLSS and ray-tracing... my God.
 
I'm not a massive expert on this, but i wonder if the latest DLSS enhancements will actually help the switch 2 push above what it would otherwise be capable of in ray-tracing, when you factor in both the super resolution and ray reconstruction additions.

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Man, this new age of technology is SUPER exciting and interesting!

That's definitely going to be the point. There is one thing I want to note that you may not be aware of, though - that small framerate boost in the last image shouldn't be taken as a usual thing. Apparently CP2077 sees that because it normally has a bunch of RT denoisers which are replaced by a single one when Ray Reconstruction is turned on. In most games, Ray Reconstruction is stated to merely improve the quality of the RT, not the performance.

Though there are theories that it could let Switch 2 devs drop their ray counts to improve performance while maintaining acceptable image quality.
 
PS4 games look the same as current gen games to me, except current gen games run at 4k (sometimes). Maybe I'm disillusioned by being a PC guy but you show me a screenshot of a cross gen game and I probably wouldn't be able to tell unless you showed me it on a 4k display.
As a PC I guy as well, I'd have to agree. I think many of the leaps have come through in the form of IQ and framerate, lighting, and some cool UE5 features on the console side. I feel like I am still playing a lot of the same games from last generation. Not that I am complaining. The current gen-only titles I've seen have looked spectacular but nothing has felt like a massive leap to me so far.

The most visually impressive game is probably Horizon Forbidden West which also scales down to PS4 well enough. R&C A Rift Apart looks great two and is able to scale down to Steam Deck in an unoptimized form.

Switch 2 is gonna be fine and the games are gonna look fantastic.
 
I realized I never did a deep dive into understanding a few facets of what’s going on, let me elaborate.

There seems to be two camps that exist within here, the “H1 camp” and the “H2 Camp”


The arguments for H1 is using what Nate has said, and using the data from Gamescom. March is what it is centered around for reasons unknown. Reports that aren’t 100% clear and a comment from Nintendo regarding hardware this year and not actually saying no new hardware outright.



The arguments for H2 is using historical precedents for Nintendo’s predictable (hehe) actions. Their current lineup, the announced Direct lineup. The historical launch of other consoles and some Nintendo consoles being the second half of the year, and some other loosey bits that are reasons they feel comfortable with.

Nate only provided that “March is significant” and that’s all. He’s not entirely sure what it is, speculates on it, but knows it’s significant for developers.





Here are my thoughts: there’s a possibility that it is announced “Soon” but not soon as in this year, but early next year. After the Christmas season.

Trailers and information should be ready for developers by March of the following year, but Nintendo will not release a new system this fiscal year.


They will release the console about 2 months after the fact, so around May (days after the financial briefing).


You may be asking, isn’t that a bit too soon? The switch released within a 5 month window after it was announced. 5 months seems plenty for Nintendo to distribute, market, and deliver a console as they’ve done so already. It went from what? October 20 to March 3rd?

You may be wondering “but what about the switch?” The switch still has games going for it, smaller games, but games nonetheless. A game can potentially gain a boost and sell well with the newer system if it launched around then. But the people that are interested in the casual titles aren’t typically the early adopters for the new platforms where it is competitive and the new ones are generally the core audience members that bring in the casuals. Aka, those that buy a few games aren’t representative of the ones likely to buy the system day one. It’s the ones that buy several dozen who are most likely to buy a system day 1.

With the new system being compatible with the switch 1 games, it doesn’t detract from potential for those games to seek a good adoption on the new device. Wait how do I know it’s BC? I don’t, but I’m not going to assume it’s not because it makes no sense otherwise. BC has its advantages even in cross gen period.


I can see the possibility of a May launch only because in theory, it’s not an impossible metric. We have the gamescom leak. We have Nate’s Leak. We have the VGC and Eurogamer July leak.

So, it’s possible that March is about having things ready from partners for advertising by then already. It should be ready by around March for something that will be releasing later. The reason why I mentioned announcing the system in January, basically after the holiday shopping, or early February, is because this is during the slow period for consoles in terms of software and hardware. Quarter 1 of the calendar year isn’t as strong as some of the other quarters at times.

They aren’t going to gain a lot from not announcing vs announcing it. And the device is going to be 7 years old. It’s probably something that’s worth it for them.


Well; this sorta really isn’t a deep dive.

But I don’t see March or this Fiscal year at all for release, but can flirt with the idea of a May-ish release.

But can also see a September release being just as realistic and possible as a May release. October isn’t out of the question, nor is November, but there will be plenty of traffic around that time.

Very good commentary on the situation.
 
Wow, have batteries really improved that much? I was under the impression the tech had stagnated severely and most devices were relying on process node shrinks to hold on.
Supposedly it's about 5% every year? So, in battery tech alone, it wouldn't reach 50% in 6 years, but I can see it being closer to 50% when you take a bigger battery capacity into account, which I can see with Switch 2. I expect the battery life to be somewhere between OG and OLED Switch. OG Switch 3 hours is the worst-case scenario, but they could clock handheld mode higher and with a bigger power draw in handheld mode vs OG Switch, and then make up for it in a revision with a smaller node. Maybe N3E in 2026 or 2nm node in 2027? I'm thinking 30% more power efficiency in the same clocks from N4 to N3E. Not as dramatic as 20nm vs 16/12nm node transition from OG to Mariko Switch.
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Would be interesting if Switch uses 4N or the regular N4 node. The former is the custom version for Nvidia that's used in the 4000 lovelace series.. But who cares? lol

PS4 games still look incredible to me, people are crazy l/ol.
We'll probably get used to pretty fast like xbox 360 graphics on switch, after the novelty wears off. lol. But to be fair, PS4 has the sweet spot for 1080p HD on consoles (or low settings on PC).
 
As a PC I guy as well, I'd have to agree. I think many of the leaps have come through in the form of IQ and framerate, lighting, and some cool UE5 features on the console side. I feel like I am still playing a lot of the same games from last generation. Not that I am complaining. The current gen-only titles I've seen have looked spectacular but nothing has felt like a massive leap to me so far.

The most visually impressive game is probably Horizon Forbidden West which also scales down to PS4 well enough. R&C A Rift Apart looks great two and is able to scale down to Steam Deck in an unoptimized form.

Switch 2 is gonna be fine and the games are gonna look fantastic.
The best looking game I've played is still a last gen game. Lost Judgment is the most realistic looking game I think I've seen to date. I played it a bit on PS5 and ended up buying it on PC after. Max settings 1080p 60fps was pretty great, then I maxed the game to 144fps and it was really crazy... until my PC crashed. I really don't think the future is in insanely high resolutions, it's in higher framerates imo - at least when it comes games looking more "real". Real life doesn't have a framerate of 30 or 60fps, it's much higher. I think. I don't know how eyes work but I'm pretty sure we can see a lot faster, if that's the right word.

We've hit the point of diminishing returns when it comes to how real characters and a lot of animations can look. This is just my opinion but, I went and watched some recordings of the Matrix demo after the Gamescom stuff because I had never seen it before. I don't understand the hype. That does not look realistic at all and I wouldn't touch a game that looked like that. It was just off in ways I can't describe and kinda creepy. The buildings look great in still screenshots but I can't really compliment that demo on anything else. If that's the peak right now when it comes to realism, there's something wrong and we gotta go a different direction.
 
We've hit the point of diminishing returns when it comes to how real characters and a lot of animations can look. This is just my opinion but, I went and watched some recordings of the Matrix demo after the Gamescom stuff because I had never seen it before. I don't understand the hype. That does not look realistic at all and I wouldn't touch a game that looked like that. It was just off in ways I can't describe and kinda creepy. The buildings look great in still screenshots but I can't really compliment that demo on anything else. If that's the peak right now when it comes to realism, there's something wrong and we gotta go a different direction.
We haven’t. You just described why in the same post.

Graphics wise, maybe (polygonal count, lighting, textures, and resolution, etc.) but animation is still a long way off. We haven’t passed the uncanny valley. So many games still struggle with animations even with performance capture. The matrix demo looks great… as a still. As soon as the characters open their mouths and start moving and talking, it looks off.
 
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I really don't think the future is in insanely high resolutions, it's in higher framerates imo - at least when it comes games looking more "real". Real life doesn't have a framerate of 30 or 60fps, it's much higher. I think. I don't know how eyes work but I'm pretty sure we can see a lot faster, if that's the right word.
Quoting wikipedia:

The flicker fusion threshold does not prevent indirect detection of a high frame rate, such as the phantom array effect or wagon-wheel effect, as human-visible side effects of a finite frame rate were still seen on an experimental 480 Hz display.[6]
So yeah, while the image becomes smooth at frame rates as low as 24 fps, you can in principle continue to detect artifacts of dicretisation at way higher fps numbers. However, most of such experiments try to isolate a single effect, making it easier to detect. In a video game scene full of distractions, many of these artifacts will likely be masked and therefore not detectable even at lower fps than the quoted 480 fps.
 
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PS4 in your hands is amazing. Nintendo has to make an affordable product.

I do feel like this gets missed a lot. Nintendo has, for better or worse, long since been associated with affordable, family-friendly gaming. You can say what you like about the price point of Switch when it launched and the reliability of Joy-Con, but £270 for a console that you can olay on the TV, on the table, on the go, as well as two players out of the box, was and still is an amazing value.

I agree PS4 games look incredible and all of those games look great at different times. But that Origins shot is complete bullshit and that last one is a screen grab of a CG trailer.

That's also fair.

In addition, if you put a PS4 game and a PS5 game side-by-side, there's no denying that there's a noticeable difference (especially on a 4K TV). PS5 is still an incredible machine, and will no doubt get even better over time as well as take advantage of UE5.

That said, I do believe we will see PS4+ (NB: perhaps not pro) from NG with the benefit of faster storage, DLSS, and all the fancy schmancy effects that come with a modern chip set.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter if the ray tracing isn't as good as other systems, or if it has a slightly worse performance. I trust Nvidia and Nintendo to do a good job and improve on where Switch lacked, while simultaneously doubling down on improving what worked.

Ehh. I could be wrong. It could be garbage. But after they seemingly cancelled what would have been the pro in favour of pushing for next gen or other reasons, I don't think they've been twatting around in a workshop all of this time.
 
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First actually confirmed Switch 2 title? Guessing it’s all too good to be true and the devs are waiting for the thing to even be announced but you never know.

@necrolipe would love if you could expand on this.
 
will you be willing to make a avatar bet on that?
Soooooo.........
Anyone feeling brave (or bored) enough to do an avatar bet on whether this thing launches H1 or H2?

NO AVATAR BETS! Those purple ... things ... i have to see are enough.

Fami, you have an avatar gambling problem.

I’ll take you one that offer Bonejack man 😁

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Hall Effect joysticks existed for a while. Heck, Atari (Cerny's old home) was playing with those things.

Looking at the Dual Sense being just as drifty as the Joy-Cons ... guess Cerny was overruled. ^^

My nephew is 11 9. The Switch is all he knows, and tbh he started on games like Cup Head. Terrifying youth.

I grew up with games like Zelda 2 or Castlevania 2.

What doesn't kill you, makes you stronger! ;D
 


First actually confirmed Switch 2 title? Guessing it’s all too good to be true and the devs are waiting for the thing to even be announced but you never know.

@necrolipe would love if you could expand on this.


Yeah can reaffirm this.
DANGEN reached me asking to remove the Switch mention on my blog post as they plan to release the game EXIT VEIL on modern Nintendo hardware near release (this is a quote from their own words btw)
 
Yeah can reaffirm this.
DANGEN reached me asking to remove the Switch mention on my blog post as they plan to release the game EXIT VEIL on modern Nintendo hardware near release (this is a quote from their own words btw)

Damn, that company has guts of steel to be this open about that.
 
Yeah can reaffirm this.
DANGEN reached me asking to remove the Switch mention on my blog post as they plan to release the game EXIT VEIL on modern Nintendo hardware near release (this is a quote from their own words btw)
This is a milestone. Are you by chance in contact with other devs and publishers as well?
 
More specifically, according to their Kickstarter, it is releasing october 2024.

Begun, the semantic wars about "near release" have.

Reminds me of that one:

Think I remember the guy who made that video had no experience of game development, but thought he would get nintendo to finance a "game".
The one you quote is probably more legit though.


I think the above posts mention it's a kickstarted game ... so yeah, this better release or you gotta have to pay back.
 
Well, that's interesting, but we better not jumpt to conclusions yet. "Near release" is a vague quote and doesn't tell us much. October can be considered "near relase" if the console launches in September but also if it does in April.
near release, lol. means Switch 2 is probably September or earlier

Lemme play the hair in the soup.

Technically it could also mean the game releases before ReDraketed.
Technically.

But honestly, i doubt that. But i wanted to get it out of the way.

Now, how Dangen defines "near release" aka how do they view the launch window, is the interesting part.
 
Yeah can reaffirm this.
DANGEN reached me asking to remove the Switch mention on my blog post as they plan to release the game EXIT VEIL on modern Nintendo hardware near release (this is a quote from their own words btw)
Oh wow. That’s it. This is the first Switch 2 confirmed game. This is a big day to remember. Sadly idk Wth this game is lol unlike BotW or Dragon Quest when they were announced for NX.
 
That’s very exciting. Further evidence that we have only somewhere between 5 and 13 months to go now. Tantalisingly close.

Exciting as well is that if they’ve opened up now, it’s not unreasonable to assume that further clues might start dripping from other devs soon.
 
Oh wow. That’s it. This is the first Switch 2 confirmed game. This is a big day to remember. Sadly idk Wth this game is lol unlike BotW or Dragon Quest when they were announced for NX.

Quick, someone in Japan tell Horii, maybe he feels challenged and lets some stuff slip, too!

That’s very exciting. Further evidence that we have only somewhere between 5 and 13 months to go now. Tantalisingly close.

Exciting as well is that if they’ve opened up now, it’s not unreasonable to assume that further clues might start dripping from other devs soon.

While i don't know how big or important Dangen is, generally and for Nintendo, i like to believe that they're not among the top priority devs/pubs.

Which would mean that devkits might be in the hands of smaller devs too already.
 
While i don't know how big or important Dangen is, generally and for Nintendo, i like to believe that they're not among the top priority devs/pubs.

Which would mean that devkits might be in the hands of smaller devs too already.

Yeah, that's my assumption as well. Which increases the likelihood of word spreading around one way or another.
 
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Near release to me means close to release. I don’t see anything before August as “near release”. To me the Switch 2 releasing in August or September with this releasing in October is near release.
I remember when Ghost Song was supposed to be released four years ago and not 6 years after its Kickstarter debut.

"Guys, EXIT VEIL is coming to the next next Nintendo console : the Phil's Box !"


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Or Heart Forth, Alicia. One day... one day.
 
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Lemme play the hair in the soup.

Technically it could also mean the game releases before ReDraketed.
Technically.

But honestly, i doubt that. But i wanted to get it out of the way.

Now, how Dangen defines "near release" aka how do they view the launch window, is the interesting part.
near release means before or after. So October release while the Switch releases in July is still near release in my book.
 
Having thought about the reveal timing discussion a genuine question: Aside from the Switch, has new hardware ever been announced before the holiday season for the calendar year after? The Switch has been used as an example as for why we could possibly see a reveal in Q4 23 (even though most are skeptical or negative towards the idea), but am I misremembering that it was an anomaly to announce new hardware before the holiday season that can mainly be attributed to the Wii U having been stone cold dead in the water?
 
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Near just means launch year to me.

Relative to now, Odyssey released near launch of Nintendo Switch.
 
Could it also mean "near (game's) release"? As in, Switch 2 version will be delayed a bit compared to other systems?
That's another of my thoughts, to be honest. A slight delay from release elsewhere makes a lot of sense.
 
Looks like textures did not load properly from what I can see. They don't look like that in some comparison videos especially the last twitter reference.



In the Mk1 thread here on fami the matter has been discussed, it turns out that people and some media are distributing false or erroneous information about the game on Switch just to encourage the console war or clicks.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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