• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
The clock is certainly ticking if Switch Redacted is coming this year, and now that the lineup of software for this year is more laid out I do start to lean more towards 2024 being the likely year. I was always curious about the lack of announced titles for the second half of 2023 and believed that new hardware could be the reason for that, but now that the software lineup looks good, and I am confident a September Direct will have even more titles to show off, it looks like Nintendo is still pushing with the OG Switch. I'm still leaving the door open for a 2023 release in part because every title shown off today would work nicely as cross gen titles. So if Redacted is coming later this year, I would expect to see the first teaser trailer shown off no later than August with the September Direct showing up the launch titles. I want new hardware so its hard not to maintain some optimism for a 2023 launch, but im probably down to 20% for 2023 and 80% for 2024.

iag said:
Do we think 2024 is the last year Drake (as we know) could be released? As in, it would be too weak/old for a 2025 release?
Click to expand...

No. I always felt like Drakes specs were exceptional for 2023 Nintendo hardware, and will still be plenty good for new Nintendo hardware releasing in 2024. Its increasingly likely that Drake was designed on a good node now that it has become apparent that the new hardware was not targeting a 2022 or early 2023 release date. Drake will basically position Redacted in a similar spot as Switch was with the Tegra X1, and that worked out just fine.
 
Goodtwin said:
No. I always felt like Drakes specs were exceptional for 2023 Nintendo hardware, and will still be plenty good for new Nintendo hardware releasing in 2024. Its increasingly likely that Drake was designed on a good node now that it has become apparent that the new hardware was not targeting a 2022 or early 2023 release date. Drake will basically position Redacted in a similar spot as Switch was with the Tegra X1, and that worked out just fine.
Click to expand...
Could you describe drake specs as if you were talking to someone technically inept? Need a refresher.
 
Still predicting H2 2024 as always. They can definitely ride out a while with this lineup. Prime 4 as a H1 2024 swan song for Switch 1.
 
In the Japanese box art for the new WarioWare, the controllers look somewhat different, with apparently large rear grips and coloured buttons.

Probably just a boxart thing. But... Maybe not.
 
eye0h said:
Could you describe drake specs as if you were talking to someone technically inept? Need a refresher.
Click to expand...

@Hermii beat me to laying out the specs, but think of it as a PS4 Pro with a superior image reconstruction option with DLSS. It will hit the middle ground between console generations. Well behind the PS5 and Series X, but perhaps within a stones throw of the Series S. Series S could prove to be Redacteds best friend, forcing developers to include a more limited target spec for their games.
 
Last edited:
ReddDreadtheLead said:
That’s asking a lot for a Mario RPG. Like, a lot.

The game would need to be revolutionary like how BOTW was for the Zelda series in which it caused the games to have a nearly 4x effect in its sales potential, and just do not think it’s realistic to expect this to explode to such a degree when it’s a remake of an old game.
Click to expand...
How much did Mario+ Rabbids Kingdom Battle make? Was it 7.5 million I don't know. I'm kinda expecting around there.

I don't think it needs to be revolutionary when Mario is involved. Mario games tend to sell pretty well, including HD 2d style ports. A lot of people haven't played the game in the 64 era and heard good things about it. The fact that it's a remake will help with the sales .If Link's Awakening remake can sell 6 million, this game has a good shot of selling more.

Maybe 10 million is asking a lot, but I said I wouldn't be surprised if it gets close to it. Not expecting it per se.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
How much did Mario+ Rabbids Kingdom Battle make? Was it 7.5 million I don't know. I'm kinda expecting around there.

I don't think it needs to be revolutionary when Mario is involved. Mario games tend to sell pretty well, including HD 2d style ports. A lot of people haven't played the game in the 64 era and heard good things about it. The fact that it's a remake will help with the sales .If Link's Awakening remake can sell 6 million, this game has a good shot of selling more.

Maybe 10 million is asking a lot, but I said I wouldn't be surprised if it gets close to it. Not expecting it per se.
Click to expand...
Mind you, it was on sale 6 months in its lifespan, and for most of its time you could find it between 20-30€. And it was during a time where there was way less mario games on the switch to chose from. Depending on how nintendo handles this game, it could mean way lower sales simply because of those factors.
 
Now that Nintendo's H2 2023 is detailed, I wonder if we'll get any word of Switch successor during the Shareholders meeting. Might be the opportune time to say "we're working on it, please look forward to more information next year."
 
SirShorse said:
Now that Nintendo's H2 2023 is detailed, I wonder if we'll get any word of Switch successor during the Shareholders meeting. Might be the opportune time to say "we're working on it, please look forward to more information next year."
Click to expand...
knowing Nintendo, they will problaby skip any question regarding they next hardware or do a generic we always working on next tecnology to bring fun to out costumers blah blah blah
 
Mekanos said:
Big in terms of sales is the only thing that matters lol

It's going to be a very popular game and sell a ton, what other metric is there?
Click to expand...
Hardware adoption and knock on effect.

But for a launch or mid generation game, its better to sell 5 million and 4 million new switches then to sell 10 million but no new switches.

Or for a game to push people to buy more games in the series
(expanding the reach) can be worth more then 1 entry that sells 4x as much as all other entries, but has no knock on effect. (rather rare)

Mind you, for a Mario game late in switches lifespan, only sales mater.
Just wanted to expand that there are other metrics (arguably prestige to have your platform and quality of games being mentioned a lot can be counted to, but all of those others are way harder to measure accurately)

Edit: found an example of the knock on effect:
crossover games or stuff like say musou, where business relations can get strengthened, if a games also leads to increased sales of the main series and not only in good sales for the zelda spinoff.
 
Erathix said:
It was odd but at the same time I saw nothing of note with those two announcements that even provides an inkling of cross gen. Pikmin 4's first trailer to me screamed more cross gen than those two did.
Click to expand...
Pikmin 4 run on Unreal Engine 4, and check NOA Twitter regarding the new Princess Peach game, they confirmed this game release on Switch
 
0
Aether said:
Hardware adoption and knock on effect.

But for a launch or mid generation game, its better to sell 5 million and 4 million new switches then to sell 10 million but no new switches.

Or for a game to push people to buy more games in the series
(expanding the reach) can be worth more then 1 entry that sells 4x as much as all other entries, but has no knock on effect. (rather rare)

Mind you, for a Mario game late in switches lifespan, only sales mater.
Just wanted to expand that there are other metrics (arguably prestige to have your platform and quality of games being mentioned a lot can be counted to, but all of those others are way harder to measure accurately)

Edit: found an example of the knock on effect:
crossover games or stuff like say musou, where business relations can get strengthened, if a games also leads to increased sales of the main series and not only in good sales for the zelda spinoff.
Click to expand...
Well if a 2D Mario can't increase hardware adoption this late into the Switch's life nothing well, so my point is it doesn't make sense to say there's "nothing big" yet, and to use that as a hint for Switch 2. Super Mario Bros. Wonder is going to be Nintendo's flagship holiday title. They have a pretty packed calendar this year, despite out of touch posters decrying them as "filler."
 
I'm still kinda team Switch 2 is H1 2024. I'd be convinced towards H2 2024 if they showed or even mentioned Prime 4, but them being so tight lipped about it makes me think it has to be a cross-gen launch game that they're waiting until they have new hardware to reveal to show again. Seems strange to announce the game so far in advance (even counting that they restarted development) but not show any footage of it less than a year before release.

I still think Team 2023 is out of pocket, and basically the guy in this gif though
he-is-speaking-guy-explaining-with-a-whiteboard.gif
 
In the Direct, the Indigo Disk was shown off. It still has a release window of Winter 2023. So that earlier leak about it coming with a next gen patch has me... Thinking again. How curious. I doubt they mean early to mid 2024 when they say "Winter".
 
eye0h said:
Could you describe drake specs as if you were talking to someone technically inept? Need a refresher.
Click to expand...
Giancarlo said:
how this translate to actual console graphical/techinal power? PS3+ or base PS4 in power?
Click to expand...
This is my attempt to explain the situation in a totally layman way. There is a lot of nuance to this, but I don't think this would lead you astray.

Anything the PS4 Pro did, Drake can do.
Drake is more powerful than the PS4. On paper, it's not quite as powerful as the PS4 Pro, but it doesn't matter, because DLSS is more efficient way to get to 4k

But 4k Ports Will Take Extra Work
Since the technologies used to get to 4k are different, it takes some extra work to convert from PS4 Pro's tech (checkerboarding) to Drake's (DLSS 2). Which means we may see some cheaper ports that don't take full advantage of the hardware.

Some things that PS4 Pro couldn't do, Drake can also do.
Drake has some hardware ray tracing support, plus a much faster CPU and storage than the Pro. Probably more memory too. So some games that aren't cross-gen might still be able to come to Drake

First Party Games Will Look Great
PS4 Pro never had exclusives, most of its extra power was "just" for 4k support. Games that could take advantage of the pure power that the Pro offered weren't actually allowed, in order to also support the base model. In terms of raw power, Drake is 6x a Switch, in terms of features, it's actually ahead of Playstation 5. Games made just for Drake will be able to take advantage of that mix of power and features in a way that last gen games never could.
 
0
Concernt said:
In the Direct, the Indigo Disk was shown off. It still has a release window of Winter 2023. So that earlier leak about it coming with a next gen patch has me... Thinking again. How curious. I doubt they mean early to mid 2024 when they say "Winter".
Click to expand...
And it clearly says Winter 2023

Plus they shower the DLC. I feel if they weren’t confident, they would have changed the dates and/or not show the dlc.

…unless Nintendo pressured them due to the Shareholders Meeting
 
ziggyrivers said:
And it clearly says Winter 2023

Plus they shower the DLC. I feel if they weren’t confident, they would have changed the dates and/or not show the dlc.

…unless Nintendo pressured them due to the Shareholders Meeting
Click to expand...
We saw quite a LOT of the Indigo Disk's new area, so pressure or no pressure it appears work is going smoothly.

I can hardly wrap my head around the leak getting everything correct... So why would it be wrong about the next gen patch?
 
Mekanos said:
Well if a 2D Mario can't increase hardware adoption this late into the Switch's life nothing well, so my point is it doesn't make sense to say there's "nothing big" yet, and to use that as a hint for Switch 2. Super Mario Bros. Wonder is going to be Nintendo's flagship holiday title. They have a pretty packed calendar this year, despite out of touch posters decrying them as "filler."
Click to expand...
i...what?
if it can't ... nothing well? nothing is well in -> there is something wrong?
Or in the sense that its "not expected" since its already this late?

I wasn't arguing for them, i was just clarifying that there are other metrics then pure sales.

And yeah, it WILL be the flagship holiday game, with Pokemon DLC and another Push for Zelda.
---------------

In regards to console sales potential of this 2D Mario: arguably the people that would have bought a switch for 2D mario bought it by now, either earlier or when the movie launched and there was a bundle.
I don't expect to many switches sold.

Games that now sells witches are rare, and would need to be games that reach audiences that games till now haven't. cant really thing of many, and especially none that are realistic and first party.

In regards of a "switch 2" hint: nothing ambitious in tech or scope.
Or trying something completly new to reach new audiences.
In that regard, they are probably right, and those are better kept for a Switch 2. That does not mean Mario is not a big game, bug a game for a different purpose on the marketing front.

------------
Packed calendar: its packed with releases, yes. Its less so packed with "core" or "mature" releases. Pokemon DLC is only selling to the people that have the games, and as mentioned above, the 2D mario wont expand the audience.
 
Giancarlo said:
Super Mario RPG remake? brand new 2D Mario?
Click to expand...

These are titles that will sell well and can work just fine within the Switch's hardware limitations. Nintendo will want the next 3D Mario to really wow people when they show it off and that is why it will launch with new hardware. The rumors about the Switch's software lineup being fleshed out with remakes is holding true. Mario RPG is an exciting remake, but a remake none the less. Luigis Mansion Dark Moon is a remake. A 2D Mario was reasonable speculation seeing as how Nintendo had yet to release an exclusive 2D Mario on Switch, and again, its a game that works just fine within Switch's hardware limitations. When I watch the more recent Directs, and todays was no exception, they are starting to feel more like 3DS Directs than the early Switch Directs. The focus seems to be more and more on smaller scale titles and remakes rather than AAA experiences on the go. Batman Arkham Trilogy is the most ambitious port I have seen to Switch in some time. Asylum and City will port over easily enough, but Arkham Knight didn't exactly run flawlessly on Xbox One and I will be interested to see how the port turns out on Switch.

The software lineup screams transition period to me. Nintendo is and has been ramping up production of software to target its next hardware, but in the meantime making moves to make sure there is still a steady stream of software on their current hardware. Nintendo is doing what they were historically poor at doing, managing the decline of their current hardware as they prepare to rollout their next console. Zelda TotK will be Nintendo's last big title to really help sell hardware, and they can probably do a holiday bundle with it later this year to help squeeze it for everything its worth, but the ability of software titles to move hardware is over.
 
Here's where I'm at in terms of the successor ship. 🚢

I considered todays Direct a strong one, especially when you take into account that the Switch is late in it's life cycle. I think the absence of larger budget projects like Metroid Prime 4 or a new 3D Mario is also indicative that they may be saving those for a cross-gen or exclusives.

I still won't rule out a 2023 release yet, there's a chance (even a slim one) that Nintendo has one big launch title for the next system, and the rest of the launch titles will roll out early 2024 and on. Any of the games shown today could benefit from new hardware (especially in Pokemon's case) and be a way to bridge the gap of cross release upgrades while we move onto the remainder of the titles that will be cross-gen moving into Late 2024.

But as mentioned previously, I now think this is a slim chance. The games shown today weren't BIG for some people, but they also weren't small. If I could even attempt at trying to be objective in a 10 scale of bigness, I suppose I'd say they ranged from a 6-8 out of a possible 10 relative to current industry scale and typical Nintendo hype. Going by that, the 9-10 games are definitely being saved for later.

My final say on the matter is that Team 2023 is a very optimistic view at this point, but I welcome anyone to keep holding on until the end of July. I think that Q2 2024 - Holiday 2024 is the sweet spot now. Nintendo has enough games to easily get through the holidays this year, announces the new system at either the start of the year, or at "E3 season" in the case that they have a couple more big titles to hold onto for the beginning of 2024. I do not think that successor will release any later than Holiday 2024.

So, while I'm here, I'll just drop some thoughts/predictions to let people mull over:

  • No successor reveal in 2023
  • Games like F-Zero, Fire Emblem Remake, Metroid Prime 4 headline the first parts of the year supplemented by TotK DLC, Princess Peach and Luigis Mansion 2 HD.
  • June/July 2024 successor reveal headlined by a new 3D Mario game. Releases November 2024.


Other predictions:

  • Twilight Princess and Wind Waker will release on the successors as 4K versions, with Twilight Princess benefiting from lighting changes as Wind Waker HD did.
  • Tears of the Kingdom is the 2nd game in the Botw Trilogy, the next will release specifically for the successor.
  • Pokemon Gen 10 is a 2026 game, Scarlet and Violet will be the last mainline Switch game.
  • A Yoshi game will be the first Nintendo title to implement raytracing.
 
Boxle said:
Tears of the Kingdom is the 2nd game in the Botw Trilogy, the next will release specifically for the successor.
Click to expand...
I don’t think we’ll get a trilogy from these games, but, by the time a new Zelda comes out, the successor might be in half of its life span. If Nintendo wants to release a Zelds game FAST, they could reutilize assets

Concernt said:
Nintendo Switch BOX - TV ONLY GAMING
Click to expand...
Nintendo Switch - Mini Version (2023) 🤣
 
ziggyrivers said:
I don’t think we’ll get a trilogy from these games, but, by the time a new Zelda comes out, the successor might be in half of its life span. If Nintendo wants to release a Zelds game FAST, they could reutilize assets


Nintendo Switch - Mini Version (2023) 🤣
Click to expand...
Play Microgames on a Microconsole!
 
Concernt said:
2021
June.
Metroid Dread announced.
July.
Nintendo Switch - OLED Model announced.
October.
Simultaneous release.

2023
June.
Super Mario Bros. Wonder announced.
July.
???.
October.
Release.

🤔
Click to expand...

The OLED model was highly rumored before it was officially announced, so it does feel different right now compared to 2021 leading up to the OLED announcement. The bigger surprise in 2021 was the fact that the OLED was just the OLED and not a Pro or "New" Switch. We are getting to the point where we should be getting some nuggets of info from the manufacturing side of things. Not to mention we are getting no indication from the industry "insiders" that Redacted is coming later this year. The OLED model would have actually been easier to keep a secret compared to Redacted, software developers wouldn't need to have any knowledge of it. Developers would have to know about Redacted as it would be an entirely new SDK.

Honestly though, even a late 2024 release for Redacted would mean developers would either have development kits by now or will have them very soon. For the insiders that really do have contacts, they should be getting or starting to get info, even if its rather limited. You would think that the DF crew for example would at the very least be able to report that they are hearing that developers now have next gen Nintendo development kits in their possession, but right now everyone seems to be in the dark.
 
Concernt said:
In the Japanese box art for the new WarioWare, the controllers look somewhat different, with apparently large rear grips and coloured buttons.

Probably just a boxart thing. But... Maybe not.
Click to expand...
Is it on the back? They're too tiny for me to make out anything here.

Goodtwin said:
@Hermii beat me to laying out the specs, but think of it as a PS4 Pro with a superior image reconstruction option with DLSS.
Click to expand...
And much better CPU than PS4, which will be more important in getting PS5/Series games.
 
Aether said:
i...what?
if it can't ... nothing well? nothing is well in -> there is something wrong?
Or in the sense that its "not expected" since its already this late?

I wasn't arguing for them, i was just clarifying that there are other metrics then pure sales.

And yeah, it WILL be the flagship holiday game, with Pokemon DLC and another Push for Zelda.
---------------

In regards to console sales potential of this 2D Mario: arguably the people that would have bought a switch for 2D mario bought it by now, either earlier or when the movie launched and there was a bundle.
I don't expect to many switches sold.

Games that now sells witches are rare, and would need to be games that reach audiences that games till now haven't. cant really thing of many, and especially none that are realistic and first party.

In regards of a "switch 2" hint: nothing ambitious in tech or scope.
Or trying something completly new to reach new audiences.
In that regard, they are probably right, and those are better kept for a Switch 2. That does not mean Mario is not a big game, bug a game for a different purpose on the marketing front.

------------
Packed calendar: its packed with releases, yes. Its less so packed with "core" or "mature" releases. Pokemon DLC is only selling to the people that have the games, and as mentioned above, the 2D mario wont expand the audience.
Click to expand...
My point is two fold:

1) they want this game to sell Switches,

2) if they wanted a new Switch to sell, they would have this as a game for that console.

2D Mario is consistently one of Nintendo’s strongest system sellers. No “mature” game will sell more Switches. There’s no super big secret holiday game that wasn’t announced here.
 
Goodtwin said:
The OLED model was highly rumored before it was officially announced, so it does feel different right now compared to 2021 leading up to the OLED announcement. The bigger surprise in 2021 was the fact that the OLED was just the OLED and not a Pro or "New" Switch. We are getting to the point where we should be getting some nuggets of info from the manufacturing side of things. Not to mention we are getting no indication from the industry "insiders" that Redacted is coming later this year. The OLED model would have actually been easier to keep a secret compared to Redacted, software developers wouldn't need to have any knowledge of it. Developers would have to know about Redacted as it would be an entirely new SDK.

Honestly though, even a late 2024 release for Redacted would mean developers would either have development kits by now or will have them very soon. For the insiders that really do have contacts, they should be getting or starting to get info, even if its rather limited. You would think that the DF crew for example would at the very least be able to report that they are hearing that developers now have next gen Nintendo development kits in their possession, but right now everyone seems to be in the dark.
Click to expand...
Yeah... in my book it was ti'll now that i waited, but even then i did not expect it anymore because it really is just unrealistically quiet, even with their ninjas.

If we hear from it next month, and no leak till then...
heck, then nintendo has their pipeline better under control then google, apple and most superpowers
 
Last edited:
Off-the-cuff theory: as Concernt said earlier, the patterns are aligning for a new Switch Hardware reveal. However, it's highly unlikely they're going to announce Switch 2 for release this year, so it has to be something else if they're still aiming for that "every 2 years" cadence for revisions. Then it hit me: WarioWare was conspicuous in how the very concept makes handheld play impossible, and it's a series known for fucking around with hardware gimmicks. It's releasing weeks before Holiday shopping season. And we have evidence that Nintendo's played with the idea of a docked-only Switch... What if this year's revision is Calcio, with Move It! as the centerpiece title?
 
Mekanos said:
My point is two fold:

1) they want this game to sell Switches,

2) if they wanted a new Switch to sell, they would have this as a game for that console.

2D Mario is consistently one of Nintendo’s strongest system sellers. No “mature” game will sell more Switches. There’s no super big secret holiday game that wasn’t announced here.
Click to expand...
Case and Point: Wii U. Super Mario Bros U did not sell that console.

Its a great seller...mid gen. Seemingly not that many bus consoles just for 2D Mario. AND peeople that want to play 2D mario already have a 2D mario on switch since... years. Why would they buy it now, and not before?
What changed?

What sells well in the start is either a huge game (prestige like Zelda, Last of Us, Halo), or a blue ocean game (Wii Sports).

"no mature game will sell more" Mature games are usually graphics/tech heavy.
Its not JUST that it sells, it also needs to sell why a new console is needed for it at the start, and a 2D mario really does not convey it. What would look differently on a stronger console? if its the big launch game, it would rather lead to a backlash why its not also on Switch if it looks that way.
2 -3 years into the life of a console nobody asks why this or that game thats graphically not that expensive could not also come for an old console, but right at the start, you need to have a reason for it. especially in a generation where even the big hitters like GoW launched on the BASE PS4 and PS5. Launching a new switch, and leading it with an exclusive 2D mario that without a problem can run on base switch would lead to a huge backlash.
And if it would not be exclusive... then why instantly buy a 400$ console, when the game looks the same on the old one.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom