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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Paxie said:
Off-the-cuff theory: as Concernt said earlier, the patterns are aligning for a new Switch Hardware reveal. However, it's highly unlikely they're going to announce Switch 2 for release this year, so it has to be something else if they're still aiming for that "every 2 years" cadence for revisions. Then it hit me: WarioWare was conspicuous in how the very concept makes handheld play impossible, and it's a series known for fucking around with hardware gimmicks. It's releasing weeks before Holiday shopping season. And we have evidence that Nintendo's played with the idea of a docked-only Switch... What if this year's revision is Calcio, with Move It! as the centerpiece title?
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... well, there are a bunch of games that don't work in handheld.
Like...mario party?
And the solution for the Switch lite: use extra joy cons.
 
Aether said:
Case and Point: Wii U. Super Mario Bros U did not sell that console.

Its a great seller...mid gen. Seemingly not that many bus consoles just for 2D Mario. AND peeople that want to play 2D mario already have a 2D mario on switch since... years. Why would they buy it now, and not before?
What changed?

What sells well in the start is either a huge game (prestige like Zelda, Last of Us, Halo), or a blue ocean game (Wii Sports).

"no mature game will sell more" Mature games are usually graphics/tech heavy.
Its not JUST that it sells, it also needs to sell why a new console is needed for it at the start, and a 2D mario really does not convey it. What would look differently on a stronger console? if its the big launch game, it would rather lead to a backlash why its not also on Switch if it looks that way.
2 -3 years into the life of a console nobody asks why this or that game thats graphically not that expensive could not also come for an old console, but right at the start, you need to have a reason for it. especially in a generation where even the big hitters like GoW launched on the BASE PS4 and PS5. Launching a new switch, and leading it with an exclusive 2D mario that without a problem can run on base switch would lead to a huge backlash.
And if it would not be exclusive... then why instantly buy a 400$ console, when the game looks the same on the old one.
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The Wii U was going to bomb no matter what lol, that has nothing to do with NSMBU. Consumers don't buy Nintendo consoles for graphics either, they buy them because their software is incredibly high demand and has high esteem.

My point remains the same. There's no secret flagship game not yet announced. Mario Wonder is it.
 
Aether said:
... well, there are a bunch of games that don't work in handheld.
Like...mario party?
And the solution for the Switch lite: use extra joy cons.
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I forgot about Mario Party. WarioWare may still be more likely than it though, since the entire game is built in a way that disincentivizes it vs Mario Party arbitrarily forcing one Joy-Con per person (afaik, don't know if there's any mini-games requiring motion from separated Joy-Cons)
 
Mekanos said:
The Wii U was going to bomb no matter what lol, that has nothing to do with NSMBU. Consumers don't buy Nintendo consoles for graphics either, they buy them because their software is incredibly high demand and has high esteem.
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dissagree...
Mekanos said:
My point remains the same. There's no secret flagship game not yet announced. Mario Wonder is it.
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...on that we agree. We know what is there this Holiday.
2D Mario, Mario RPG and Pokemon RPG.
 
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Concernt said:
We saw quite a LOT of the Indigo Disk's new area, so pressure or no pressure it appears work is going smoothly.

I can hardly wrap my head around the leak getting everything correct... So why would it be wrong about the next gen patch?
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I don't really keep up with Pokemon anymore, but were there any new details in the new SV DLC trailers that aligns with anything in that leak that wasn't already in the last trailer?
 
Ojoloco said:
Now im convinced, prime 4 is 2024 with switch 2, like BotW and Switch
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I've been banging that drum for well over a year now, and people called me insane. Still do.

Hocot8 said:
I hope not tbh. I hope Nintendo would have a bigger game for the next console's launch.
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They will, but at this point a shiny version of MP4 on the new console is a tantalising proposition for the core Nintendo fan. No reason why we can't have our cake and eat it.

SuperFakerBros said:
What on Earth? Honestly not sure how anyone could walk away with that opinion
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Some people are never happy, ever.
 
SuperFakerBros said:
What on Earth? Honestly not sure how anyone could walk away with that opinion
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I get it. NSMB:Wii and NSMBU heavily emphasized 4 player couch co-op, and lots of folks felt like it negatively affected the level design as far as single player experiences goes.

Visually, it's obviously fresh, but it is a continuation of "Mario in contextless cartoonland", as opposed to, say, Odyssey, or Sunshine (or even the last couple Donkey Kong games) which are very much in a place and the platform is an extension of that world. The underground section especially seems very similar.

Musically, the vocal stuff is a remix of the existing Mario tunes, and the "wonder" section returns to what sounds like exactly the same set of wacky synth samples all the NSMB games have been built on.

Gameplay wise, you still have lives instead of an Odyssey like quick retry, lose coins system, and you have Wonder Seeds operating the same as Star Coins.

I think it looks super fun! But there is certain a vocal contingent of fans for whom this doesn't change what they disliked about the previous games.
 
oldpuck said:
I get it. NSMB:Wii and NSMBU heavily emphasized 4 player couch co-op, and lots of folks felt like it negatively affected the level design as far as single player experiences goes.

Visually, it's obviously fresh, but it is a continuation of "Mario in contextless cartoonland", as opposed to, say, Odyssey, or Sunshine (or even the last couple Donkey Kong games) which are very much in a place and the platform is an extension of that world. The underground section especially seems very similar.

Musically, the vocal stuff is a remix of the existing Mario tunes, and the "wonder" section returns to what sounds like exactly the same set of wacky synth samples all the NSMB games have been built on.

Gameplay wise, you still have lives instead of an Odyssey like quick retry, lose coins system, and you have Wonder Seeds operating the same as Star Coins.

I think it looks super fun! But there is certain a vocal contingent of fans for whom this doesn't change what they disliked about the previous games.
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I mean, sure, it'll obviously retain elements from past 2D Mario games. It'd be more weird if it didn't. But I can't say any of the things that weren't changed exactly stand out as negatives to me...or really 99% of humanity, tbh, as those are elements that are kinda part of the whole 2D Mario parcel, including the more weird ones. Like him being in a "context-less" world is the sort of the thing only a handful of folk would even think about or find a negative. What folk are mainly gonna focus on is level design, creativity, and art style, which the game defines seems to be changing up pretty heavily, which is what most folk were generally asking for. Music wise we'll have to see but they haven't shown off enough of that to really make much of a judgement. I guess if you wanted a BotW level formula change, then, yeah, this is pretty underwhelming but, for folk who wanted a fun creative 2D Mario, yeah, this is it
 
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eye0h said:
It's super weird that we haven't seen metroid yet. I wonder if things are going well with development. Or if they want to show it off in the best quality on a new system....
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I don’t know. If they have it lined up as the last big Switch title next summer before the Drake launches Holiday, saving it for the one more thing in September makes sense since they had Mario for today. If the Switch has two games of that calibre to come, then you probably do want to space them out.
 
Nothing that was announced really indicates a launch window in any particular direction. Especially not one delaying a launch. A bunch of ports got announced alongside 1 new 2D Mario game. None of that is uh oh we don't have software for a new console. The fact a bunch of ports were announced if anything indicates everybody that matters is already working on their Switch 2 titles.
 
SuperFakerBros said:
I mean, sure, it'll obviously retain elements from past 2D Mario games
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I think you're mishearing me or I miscommunicating.

To me, Wonder feels very much like a continuation of what Nintendo did with the NSMB games. I like those games, but they are not the whole of the 2D Mario space. There are lots of places a game could go and still be recognizably a 2D mario game, while leaving most of the conventions of NSMB in the past.

It's very easy for me to understand how someone could look at Wonder and say "this is basically another NSMB game." I don't mind that, personally, but I don't think it's an outlandish statement. While I am excited by Wonder and glad that Nintendo is changing it up, I think it says more about how stagnant those games have been that you would look at Wonder and think it weird that someone would say "this is of a piece with the New series."
 
oldpuck said:
I think you're mishearing me or I miscommunicating.

To me, Wonder feels very much like a continuation of what Nintendo did with the NSMB games. I like those games, but they are not the whole of the 2D Mario space. There are lots of places a game could go and still be recognizably a 2D mario game, while leaving most of the conventions of NSMB in the past.

It's very easy for me to understand how someone could look at Wonder and say "this is basically another NSMB game." I don't mind that, personally, but I don't think it's an outlandish statement. While I am excited by Wonder and glad that Nintendo is changing it up, I think it says more about how stagnant those games have been that you would look at Wonder and think it weird that someone would say "this is of a piece with the New series."
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Well the points sorta looked like you were comparing it to the 2D Mario games as a whole. If we're just limiting it to the NSMB games in particular, I actually especially don't get it. It looks like a pretty clean break to me while retaining the local co-op that most generally enjoyed. Like most of NSMB's conventions were standard 2D Mario conventions anyways so I'm not sure how this is just following in the same footsteps as NSMB but the others weren't following in the same footsteps as the ones before them
 
oldpuck said:
I think you're mishearing me or I miscommunicating.

To me, Wonder feels very much like a continuation of what Nintendo did with the NSMB games. I like those games, but they are not the whole of the 2D Mario space. There are lots of places a game could go and still be recognizably a 2D mario game, while leaving most of the conventions of NSMB in the past.

It's very easy for me to understand how someone could look at Wonder and say "this is basically another NSMB game." I don't mind that, personally, but I don't think it's an outlandish statement. While I am excited by Wonder and glad that Nintendo is changing it up, I think it says more about how stagnant those games have been that you would look at Wonder and think it weird that someone would say "this is of a piece with the New series."
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Definitely not an outlandish statement. I was just watching the direct with a friend and we both were disappointed that it didn’t feel visually terribly different from NSMB. We can tell things have changed, but at a glance it’s like they tilted the character models 45 degrees towards the camera and added some smirks.

I’m happy they dropped the New moniker. At least we have that.
 
Seeing as that direct took care of most of Nintendo's first party games (excluding Metroid), could we start hearing about new hardware in September?
 
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Concernt said:
2021
June.
Metroid Dread announced.
July.
Nintendo Switch - OLED Model announced.
October.
Simultaneous release.

2023
June.
Super Mario Bros. Wonder announced.
July.
???.
October.
Release.
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This would be a very bold launch schedule for a new gen, but Nintendo just might have the chutzpah to pull it off. Another possible soon-ish timeline would be to reveal Drake hardware just before TGS, coordinate with trusted 3rd parties for a shock & awe display of exclusives, cross-gen titles, and patches on the TGS floor, and release the hardware in Q1.

I have previously suggested that the holiday hardware sales might not be meaningfully impacted by a pre-holiday reveal, because the early adopters are already holding out for Switch 2 even without a new hardware announcement. Post Direct, some on this forum or elsewhere online are even saying that they won’t purchase any additional Switch titles; it further demonstrates that delaying the announcement in a bid to protect the holiday sales may be ineffectual.

Mekanos said:
2) if they wanted a new Switch to sell, they would have this as a game for that console.
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Aether said:
And if it would not be exclusive… then why instantly buy a 400$ console, when the game looks the same on the old one.
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That conventional wisdom may very well still hold true for the Switch 2 transition. However, if Switch 2 can provide near-perfect backward compatibility, any games can sell both the Drake model and the OG—as long as they are competently patched for the former. Early adopters have proven that they’re willing to pay a premium for the latest GPUs just to play their existing games better and to future-proof.
 
Paxie said:
Off-the-cuff theory: as Concernt said earlier, the patterns are aligning for a new Switch Hardware reveal. However, it's highly unlikely they're going to announce Switch 2 for release this year, so it has to be something else if they're still aiming for that "every 2 years" cadence for revisions. Then it hit me: WarioWare was conspicuous in how the very concept makes handheld play impossible, and it's a series known for fucking around with hardware gimmicks. It's releasing weeks before Holiday shopping season. And we have evidence that Nintendo's played with the idea of a docked-only Switch... What if this year's revision is Calcio, with Move It! as the centerpiece title?
Click to expand...
I doubt we’re getting a dock only Switch. Even the Pro was gonna have the same hybrid form factor, plus Ubisoft’s CEO’s expressions pretty much cement that the next iteration of the Switch will be a next gen device.

Hocot8 said:
Nate speculated that there could be a deep-dive into Pikmin 4 next month.
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True. They can still elaborate more in the game.
 
fwd-bwd said:
That conventional wisdom may very well still hold true for the Switch 2 transition. However, if Switch 2 can provide near-perfect backward compatibility, any games can sell both the Drake model and the OG—as long as they are competently patched for the former. Early adopters have proven that they’re willing to pay a premium for the latest GPUs just to play their existing games better and to future-proof.
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I mean... kinda? HOW would this mario game look better?

My argument was if switch 2 launches with Wonder as the big game. There is a difference between slightly better and virtually indistinguishable. It is not a game that could easily be improved (Lod, better light, draw distance,...), And I'm confident that there does not exist a switch 2 early adopter that doesn't own a switch by now. So... The incentive of buying a launch switch 2 would only be ... The worry to not get one later?

I'm also getting more and more worried about backwards compatibility. (Probably without a reason, but still)

Mind you, that's a hypothetical case. In reality they will show at least the first 6 months of the lineup, and would follow wonder with a graphically impressive game.
 
ziggyrivers said:
I doubt we’re getting a dock only Switch. Even the Pro was gonna have the same hybrid form factor, plus Ubisoft’s CEO’s expressions pretty much cement that the next iteration of the Switch will be a next gen device.


True. They can still elaborate more in the game.
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I'm not saying this will be a next-gen device, I'm saying it'd be to docked play what the Lite is to handheld play
 
It was a good run, but after this Direct I have to part ways with Team 2023. I'm now Team H2 2024.

The vibe I got with this Direct is that Nintendo has just enough gas in the tank to get to H2 2024, but it will be a bit patchy. As others have the Direct felt like it had the sort of announcements we'd get at the end of the 3DS' life cycle (though I think Wonder looks great). For the the 1st party roster in H2 2023 we have:

July: Pikmin 4
Aug:
Sept: Pikmin 1 + 2 (physical)
Oct: Super Mario Bros. Wonder, Detective Pikachu Returns
Nov: WarioWare: Move It!, Super Mario RPG
Dec:

Booster Course Pass Wave 5 is just "summer" right now, but if I had to guess, they'll slot it in that empty Aug. slot. And Wave 6 could easily fill in the December gap. And then we know at least one of the SV DLCs will slot in there somewhere (maybe both, but let's not get into the "Winter 2023" debate again lol).

That to me looks like the 1st party lineup for the rest of this year. I don't see Nintendo announcing anything new in the September Direct that would release this year, unless it is something small and casual-focused like Big Brain Academy, which was announced in Sept. 2021 and released a few months later in Nov.

Based on what we know from what's currently announced and what we've heard from insiders, H1 2024 could end up looking like this:

Untitled Peach Game
Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon
Metroid Prime 4 (closing announcement for Sept. Direct?)
Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War (opening announcement for Sept. Direct?)
F-Zero GX (Sept. Direct announcement?)

Come the Feb. 2024 Direct, we'd probably be in the same position as we were in Feb. of this year. They'd probably give more details and date games for H1 2024 and announce some remasters and leave H2 wide open. But this time it would be because the successor is coming H2 and we'd get our blowout in Summer 2024. I'm thinking Prime 4 would release at the end of H1 2024 (basically the TotK slot) and would serve as the swan song for new 1st party switch software, though there could still be more remasters and remakes to get us through the rest of 2024.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
How much did Mario+ Rabbids Kingdom Battle make? Was it 7.5 million I don't know. I'm kinda expecting around there.

I don't think it needs to be revolutionary when Mario is involved. Mario games tend to sell pretty well, including HD 2d style ports. A lot of people haven't played the game in the 64 era and heard good things about it. The fact that it's a remake will help with the sales .If Link's Awakening remake can sell 6 million, this game has a good shot of selling more.

Maybe 10 million is asking a lot, but I said I wouldn't be surprised if it gets close to it. Not expecting it per se.
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Mario + Rabbids is close to 8M and it’s only that number because of the large amount of sales Ubisoft did for the game.

Game would be 12-15 dollars at some point.

Actually many some points, it was also a completely new game that wasn’t done before with the Mario IP, a Strategy game. It’s unrealistic to expect that for SMRPG to get near that when it’s a remake of an old game, and it won’t get sales anywhere near the frequency or low price of Mario+Rabbids.


oldpuck said:
VGSales data, but I absolutely misread the chart🥴 Actual Wii sales seem to be closer to 1 million world wide
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I wouldn’t use VGSales and would rather suggest using the InstallBase database instead as it is more accurate:

www.installbaseforum.com

Nintendo software and hardware sales data from 1983 to present

I'm going to keep this thread updated with new, more up to date info whenever is possible. UPDATED WITH DATA UNTIL DECEMBER 2023 独創 What does the following data represent? The data here presented is either financial data or shipment data provided by Nintendo itself directly from Nintendo's...
www.installbaseforum.com www.installbaseforum.com

Specifically this one, if it isn’t on the list it’s because A) it didn’t sell at least a million and B) there’s no report on it selling as well, so it is presumed to have done <1000k in game sales.
 
Concernt said:
In the Direct, the Indigo Disk was shown off. It still has a release window of Winter 2023. So that earlier leak about it coming with a next gen patch has me... Thinking again. How curious. I doubt they mean early to mid 2024 when they say "Winter".
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Just for everyone’s convenience, here is the original leak and its followup:

FqKRBDzXsAEcvVy

At the time of the post (March 01 2023), the plan was to release a Switch 2 patch alongside the DLC2, which is scheduled for “early 2024”. If the leak is to be believed, the next-gen hardware should be released in or before early 2024. That plan may or may not have been changed though.
 
topsekret said:
Based on what we know from what's currently announced and what we've heard from insiders, H1 2024 could end up looking like this:

Untitled Peach Game
Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon
Metroid Prime 4 (closing announcement for Sept. Direct?)
Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War (opening announcement for Sept. Direct?)
F-Zero GX (Sept. Direct announcement?)
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karmitt said:
H1 2024 seems possible but it is easy to see them squeezing by and launching H2.
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I'm expecting Holiday next year with 3D Mario, but H1 would be a pleasant surprise. But a few games worth mentioning:

If Super Mario RPG is not developed by Bandai Namco, then their long in developed "Untitled Nintendo 3D Remake" is still unaccounted for (though I suppose it could be Dark Moon). I've been dubious about EPD Donkey Kong, but it has been rumored for a bit.

Prime 2+3 were part of the original Prime Remaster rumor, and Grubb of course keeps telling us about the HD Zeldas. It's not rumored, but it would be wild if we didn't get a small Kirby spin-off next year.

Looked at expansively, that's 11 games, it's just heavy on the re-releases. Trying to blow them all in the next year, in addition to the dated titles seems wild. You could conceivably go full Pikmin and released your basic uprezzes right before Prime 4, and kill 3 birds with one stone, maybe double pack the Zeldas. Still, that all feels like a light 12 months instead of a bonkers 6.
 
oldpuck said:
I'm expecting Holiday next year with 3D Mario, but H1 would be a pleasant surprise. But a few games worth mentioning:

If Super Mario RPG is not developed by Bandai Namco, then their long in developed "Untitled Nintendo 3D Remake" is still unaccounted for (though I suppose it could be Dark Moon). I've been dubious about EPD Donkey Kong, but it has been rumored for a bit.

Prime 2+3 were part of the original Prime Remaster rumor, and Grubb of course keeps telling us about the HD Zeldas. It's not rumored, but it would be wild if we didn't get a small Kirby spin-off next year.

Looked at expansively, that's 11 games, it's just heavy on the re-releases. Trying to blow them all in the next year, in addition to the dated titles seems wild. You could conceivably go full Pikmin and released your basic uprezzes right before Prime 4, and kill 3 birds with one stone, maybe double pack the Zeldas. Still, that all feels like a light 12 months instead of a bonkers 6.
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HD Zeldas and Prime 2 & 3 are the kinda things I see getting announced in a Feb. 2024 Direct. As we saw today, Nintendo ain't afraid to simultaneously release two basic HD remasters at once (Pikmin 1 + 2). Though two Zeldas and two Primes in a single Direct feels a bit port-excessive, even for Nintendo at this point. Maybe one pair gets announced in Sept. 2023 or June 2024 to spread them out a bit.

Good call on Bandai Namco, I forgot about that. Would be interesting to see if they're handling any of today's remakes/remasters.

Yeah, I've also been a bit dubious about EPD Donkey Kong, which is why I held off from mentioning it in my first post. If it's real, it seems like it could be a successor title at this point. Kinda feels like it's in the same situation as Kirby GCN or Super Paper Mario, which became Wii games. Or maybe it stays on Switch and it along with Prime 4 carry us through 2024 as the final "heavy hitters" before Switch 2.
 
Why is everyone so confident that F-Zero GX Remaster will come out?
I understand that now with the NERD GameCube emulator it is easier than ever, but why does everyone trust that it will arrive?
It appeared in some rumor, is there any source that has guessed other things correctly?
 
Onizuka said:
Why is everyone so confident that F-Zero GX Remaster will come out?
I understand that now with the NERD GameCube emulator it is easier than ever, but why does everyone trust that it will arrive?
It appeared in some rumor, is there any source that has guessed other things correctly?
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One source is NateDrake who's gotten plenty of things right before.
 
Todays Direct, made me even more excited for the next console due to the graphical styles on display. Mario Wonder, Mario RPG, Peach’s new game, and Pikmin 4 will look wonderful (no pun lol) when they get enhanced. Especially Super Mario Bros Wonder.
 
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