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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Todays Direct, made me even more excited for the next console due to the graphical styles on display. Mario Wonder, Mario RPG, Peach’s new game, and Pikmin 4 will look wonderful (no pun lol) when they get enhanced. Especially Super Mario Bros Wonder.
Especially Pikmin 4, with much better resolution with some higher res textures, would be lovely.
 
I still won't rule out a 2023 release yet, there's a chance (even a slim one) that Nintendo has one big launch title for the next system, and the rest of the launch titles will roll out early 2024 and on. Any of the games shown today could benefit from new hardware (especially in Pokemon's case) and be a way to bridge the gap of cross release upgrades while we move onto the remainder of the titles that will be cross-gen moving into Late 2024.

But as mentioned previously, I now think this is a slim chance. The games shown today weren't BIG for some people, but they also weren't small. If I could even attempt at trying to be objective in a 10 scale of bigness, I suppose I'd say they ranged from a 6-8 out of a possible 10 relative to current industry scale and typical Nintendo hype. Going by that, the 9-10 games are definitely being saved for later.

My final say on the matter is that Team 2023 is a very optimistic view at this point, but I welcome anyone to keep holding on until the end of July. I think that Q2 2024 - Holiday 2024 is the sweet spot now. Nintendo has enough games to easily get through the holidays this year, announces the new system at either the start of the year, or at "E3 season" in the case that they have a couple more big titles to hold onto for the beginning of 2024. I do not think that successor will release any later than Holiday 2024.
This take is very similar to where I'm at re: release timing of next Nintendo console. This Direct imo has shown that whether Nintendo has a bunch of games on the horizon or not, they seemed to have optimized their software lineups to the point where there's practically no game drought wherever their console is in their life cycle and that could probably be attributed to their streamlining from two consoles to one console. After this Direct, I'm actually gonna put my flag down for #Team2023 lmfao

Why? Because it's fun and I'm high on hopium pretty much XD Heck, 2024 is realistically better for my finances if I'm gonna be brutally honest but speculating for 2023 is just straight up exciting to me and I'm not concerned too much now about how Nintendo's software lineup would dictate when they're releasing their next console because like I said in my previous paragraph, they're probably gonna have software consistently now with their streamlining to one console.

Come on, if a new hardware was about to be revealed (today) we would already know.
Personally, I don't think it's planned for 2023 either, but I'll be more or less sure of that after the Direct.
2021
June.
Metroid Dread announced.
July.
Nintendo Switch - OLED Model announced.
October.
Simultaneous release.

2023
June.
Super Mario Bros. Wonder announced.
July.
???.
October.
Release.

🤔
In hindsight, there really wasn't enough smoke for any new hardware to be shown in this Direct so I'm also looking forward to what July has for us now. I quoted Concernt's post to reiterate that there was a lot of smoke in 2021 for new Nintendo hardware so maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe we'll see some smoke towards July or maybe not.

Release timing speculation aside, here's potentially some material for us to theorize what games could be in future Nintendo hardware..."XGS to Switch" dated December 2022 :unsure::unsure::unsure:

Could [redacted] run Starfield?
The last time I did some truly in depth prediction on [redacted] performance it was in the context of PS4 and cross-gen. Since then, the launch of truly "next-gen" games has come along, and my own understanding has grown, so I thought it might be worth returning to.

Rather than do some abstract "Redacted is 73% of Series 5, assuming Nintendo picks Zeta Megahertz on the Right Frombulator" I thought it would be nice to look in depth at Starfield, a game I'm curious about, and think about what it might look like on a theoretical [redacted]. Which, I guess, is kinda abstract since we're talking about unreleased software on unannounced hardware, but let me have this.

TL;DR: The Takeaway
If there is one thing I want folks to come away with from this exercise it's "the problems of last gen are not the problems of this gen. Same for the solutions."

I know that's not satisfying, but the PS5/Xbox Series consoles are not just bigger PS4/Xbox One, and [redacted] is not just a bigger Switch. Switch had big advantages and big disadvantages when it came to ports - [redacted] is the same but they are different advantages and disadvantages.

For the most part, the Series S doesn't "help" [redacted] ports as much as some folks think. And obviously, Starfield is going to remain console exclusive to Microsoft's machines. But yes, I believe a port of Starfield would be possible. It would also be a lot of work, and not in the ways that, say, The Witcher III was a lot of work.

Zen and the ARM of Gigacycle Maintenance
Behold, the ballgame:



Graphs like this kill a lot of nuance, but they're also easy to understand. Last gen TV consoles went with bad laptop CPUs. Switch went with a good mobile CPU. That put them in spitting distance of each other.

[redacted] is set to make a generational leap over Switch, but PS5/Xbox Series have made an even bigger leap, simply because of how behind they were before. And, most importantly - the daylight between Series S and Series X is minimal. The existence of a Series S version doesn't help at all here.

This is especially rough with Starfield, a game that is CPU limited. With GPU limited games, you can cut the resolution, but that won't help here. Cutting the frame rate would - except it's already 30fps. There are no easy solutions here.

That doesn't mean no solutions. But this puts in solidly "holy shit how did they fit it onto that tiny machine" territory.

I Like It When You Call Me Big FLOPa
Good news: DLSS + The Series S graphics settings, done. Go back to worrying about the CPU, because that's the hard problem.

The tech pessimism - Ampere FLOPS and RDNA 2 FLOPS aren't the same, and it favors RDNA 2. Whatever the on-paper gap between [redacted] and Series S, the practical gap will be somewhat larger. If you want the numbers, open the spoiler. Otherwise, just trust me.

GPUs are not FLOPS alone. There are also ROPS/TMUs/memory subsystems/feature set. There are also tradeoffs for going for a wider/slower vs narrower/faster design. If we want to game out how Series S and [redacted] might perform against each other we would, ideally, want two GPUs that we could test that roughly parallel all those things.

The Series S GPU is 1280 cores, 80 TMUs, 32 ROPs, with 224 GB/s of memory bandwidth, at 4TFLOPS
[redacted]'s GPU is 1536 cores, ?? TMUs, 16 ROPs, with 102 GB/s of memory bandwidth, at a theoretical 3 TFLOPS.

The RX 6600 XT is 2048 cores, 128 TMUs, 64 ROPS, with 256 GB/s of memory bandwidth + 444.9 GB/s infinity cache, at 10.6 TFLOPS
The RTX 3050 is 2560 cores, 80 TMUs, 32 ROPs, with 224 GB/s of memory bandwidth, at 9 TFLOPS.

No comparison is perfect, but from a high level, this is pretty close. The Ampere card is slightly fewer FLOPS built on 20% more cores, the RDNA 2 card supports that compute power with twice as much rasterization hardware. And the performance is within the same realm as the existing consoles, so we're not trying to fudge from something insane like a 4090.

The downside of this comparison is the memory bandwidth. The consoles and the RX 6000 series have very different memory subsystems. We're going to act like "big bandwidth" on consoles and "medium bandwidth plus infinity cache" are different paths to the same result, but it's the biggest asterisk over the whole thing.

Digital Foundry has kindly provided us with dozens of data points of these two cards running the same game in the same machine at matched settings. Here is the 1080, rasterization only numbers

GameAmpere FPSRDNA 2 FPSPercentage
Doom Eternal15623167
Borderlands 3539456
Control548365
Shadow of the Tomb Raider9013268
Death Stranding8313561
Far Cry 59513968
Hitman 29614665
Assassin's Creed: Odyssey518162
Metro Exodus488060
Dirt Rally 2.06210459
Assassin's Creed: Unity10015763

As we can see pretty clearly, the Ampere card underperforms the RDNA 2 card by a significant margin, with only a 3.9% standard deviation. If we grade on a curve - adjusting the for the differences in TFLOPS - that improves slightly. Going as the FLOPS fly, Ampere is performing at about 74% of RDNA 2.

We could compare other cards, and I have, but the gap gets bigger, not smaller as you look elsewhere. Likely because where Nvidia spent silicon on tensor cores and RT units, AMD spent them on TMUs and ROPs.

If you take those numbers, an imaginary 3TFLOP [redacted] isn't 75% the performance of the Series S, but closer to 55%. We will obviously not be able to run the Series S version of the game without graphical changes. So what about DLSS? Again, technical analysis below, but the short answer is "DLSS Performance Mode should be fine".

Let's do some quick math. At 55% of the performance of Series S, is Series S can generate an image natively in 1ms, [redacted] can do it in 1.78ms. According to the DLSS programming guide, our theoretical [redacted], we can get a 1440p image (the Series S target for Starfield) from a 720p source in 2.4ms.

Looking at those numbers it is clear that there is a point where DLSS breaks down - where the native image rendering is so fast, that the overhead of DLSS actually makes it slower. That should only happen in CPU limited games, but it just so happens, Starfield is a CPU limited game. So where is that line?

Series S GPU Time * 1.78 (the redacted performance ratio) * 0.25 (DLSS performance mode starts at 1/4 res) + 2.4ms (redacted's DLSS overhead) = Series S GPU Time

Don't worry, I've already solved it for you - it's 3.8ms. That would be truly an extremely CPU limited game. So DLSS seems extremely viable in most cases.

Starfield is a specific case, however, as is the Series S generally. Starfield uses some form of reconstruction, with a 2x upscale. If Series S is struggling to get there natively, will DLSS even be enough? Or to put it another way, does FSR "kill" DLSS?

Handily, AMD, also provides a programming guide with performance numbers for FSR 2, and they're much easier to interpret than the DLSS ones. We can comfortably predict that FSR 2 Balanced Mode on Series S takes 2.9ms. You'll note that DLSS on [redacted] is still faster than FSR 2 on the bigger machine. That's the win of dedicated hardware.

And because of that, we're right back where we started. For GPU limited games, if the Series S can do it natively, we can go to half resolution, and DLSS back up in the same amount of time, or less. If the Series S is doing FSR at 2x, we can do 4x. If Series S is doing 4x, by god, we go full bore Ultra Performance mode. And should someone release a FSR Ultra Performance game on Series S, well, you know what, Xbox can keep it.

Worth noting, that even then the options don't end for [redacted]. Series S tends to target 1440p because it scales nicely on a 4k display. But 1080p also scales nicely on a 4k display, giving us more options to tune.

Whether you are willing to put up with DLSS here is a subjective question, but this is a pretty straight forward DLSS upscale, nothing unusual at all. Where it might become dicey is if Imaginary Porting Studio decided to do something wild like go to Ultra Performance mode, not because of the graphics, but to free up time for the CPU to run. In CPU limited games, that rarely gives you the performance you need, but it's worth noting that [redacted] and DLSS do give us some "all hands on deck" options.

In Space, No One Can Hear You Stream
It's not just CPUs and GPUs obviously. The ninth gen machines all advertise super fast NVMe drives. Meanwhile, we have no idea what [redacted]'s storage solution will look like. But I don't want to talk too much about abstract performance, I want to talk about Starfield.

Starfield's
PC requirements are informative. It requires an SSD, but doesn't specify type, nor does it recommend an NVMe. It only requires 16GB of RAM, which is pretty standard for console ports, which suggests that Starfield isn't doing anything crazy like using storage as an extra RAM pool on consoles. It's pretty classic open world asset streaming.

Let's make a little table:

Switch eMMCOld SATA SSDModern eMMCSATA III SSDiPhone NVMeSeries S NVMeAndroid UFS 4UFS 4, on paper
300MB/s300MB/s400 MB/s500MB/s1600MB/s2400MB/s3100MB/s5800MB/s

Nintendo has a lot of options, and pretty much all of them cross the Starfield line - if mandatory installs are allowed by Nintendo. There is a big long conversation about expansion and GameCard speed that I think is well beyond the scope here, and starts to get very speculative about what Nintendo's goals are. But at heart, there is no question of the onboard storage of [redacted] being fast enough for this game.

Don't Jump on the Waterbed
When you push down on the corner of a waterbed, you don't make the waterbed smaller, you just shift the water around.

You can do that with software, too. Work can be moved from one system (like the CPU) to another (RAM) if you're very clever about it (caching, in this case). Sometimes it's faster. Sometimes it's slower. But that doesn't matter so much as whether or not you've got room to move. This is likely one of the reasons that Nintendo has historically been so generous with RAM - it's cheap and flexible.

The danger with this next-gen ports isn't any one aspect being beyond what [redacted] can do. It's about about multiple aspects together combining to leave no room to breath. NVMe speed you can work around, GPU can cut resolution, CPU can be hyper optimized. But all three at once makes for a tricky situation.

At this point I don't see evidence of that in Starfield - I suspect only the CPU is a serious bottle neck. But some minor things worth bringing up:

RAM - reasonable expectations are that Nintendo will go closer to 12 GB than 8 GB, so I don't see RAM as a serious issue.

Storage space - PC requirements call for a whopping 128GB of free space. That's much larger than Game Cards, and most if not all of the likely on board storage in [redacted]. There are likely a bunch of easy wins here, but it will need more than just easy wins to cross that gap.

Ray Tracing - Starfield uses no RT features on consoles, so despite the fact that [redacted] likely does pretty decent RT for its size, it's irrelevant here.

Appendix: The Name is Trace. Ray Trace
But someone will ask, so here is the quick version: [redacted]'s RT performance is likely to be right up to Series S. But it's not like Series S games often have RT, and RT does have a decent CPU cost, where [redacted] is already weakest. So expect RT to be a first party thing, and to be mostly ignored in ports.

Let's look at some benchmarks again. The 3050 vs the 6600 XT once more. This time we're using 1440p resolution, For Reasons.

Game3050 FPS3050 FPS w/RTRT Cost6600 XT FPS6600 XT FPS w/RTRT Cost
Control351924.1ms492029.6ms
Metro Exodus372414.6ms603016.7ms
The method here is less obvious than before. We've taken the games at max settings with RT off, then turned RT on, and captured their frame rates. Then we've turned the frame rate into frame time - how long it took to draw each frame on screen. We've then subtracted the time of the pure raster frame from the RT frame.

This gives us the rough cost of RT in each game, for each card, lower is better. And as you can see, despite the fact that the 3050 is slower than the 6600 XT by a significant margin, in pure RT performance, it's faster. About 38% faster when you grade on the curve for the difference in TFLOPS.

There aren't a lot of games with good available data like this to explore, but there are plenty of cards, and you can see that this ratio tends to hold.

Game3060 FPS3060 FPS w/RTRT Cost6700 XT FPS6700 XT FPS w/RTRT Cost
Control552817.5ms672525.1ms
Metro Exodus543510.1ms743713.5ms
This gives us 43% improvement for Ampere, adjusted for FLOPS.

Applying this adjustment our theoretical 3TF [redacted] out performs the 4TF Series S by 3.5%.

It's worth noting that RDNA 2 doesn't have true RT hardware. Instead, the CPU builds the BVH structure, and then triangle intersections are tested by the existing TMUs that the GPU already has. Ampere performs both operations on dedicated hardware. This should reduce the CPU load, but also opens up the possibility of further wins when using async compute.

Maybe we'll get a chance to look back at this post fondly 🙏🙏

edit: for reference, here are all the XGS games that are on Switch since that date (per Wikipedia)...maybe this could mean that there's more on the Forza horizon 🤷‍♂️
2NMLJ9v.png
 
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Release timing speculation aside, here's potentially some material for us to theorize what games could be in future Nintendo hardware..."XGS to Switch" dated December 2022 :unsure::unsure::unsure:


Maybe we'll get a chance to look back at this post fondly 🙏🙏

edit: for reference, here are all the XGS games that are on Switch since that date (per Wikipedia)...maybe this could mean that there's more on the Forza horizon 🤷‍♂️
2NMLJ9v.png


Would this not just be discussing Ori and Cuphead? I do believe Mr Spencer himself did say that there wouldn't be any more, but I can't quote that.

Edit: yes I can:

 
Would this not just be discussing Ori and Cuphead? I do believe Mr Spencer himself did say that there wouldn't be any more, but I can't quote that.

Edit: yes I can:

Thanks for bringing this up! Not sure if I've seen that before and we'll probably get more clarity in the hearing tomorrow

 
Why is everyone so confident that F-Zero GX Remaster will come out?
I understand that now with the NERD GameCube emulator it is easier than ever, but why does everyone trust that it will arrive?
It appeared in some rumor, is there any source that has guessed other things correctly?
In addition to NateDrake, SyluxHunter also hinted at F-Zero.

SyluxHunter hasn't leaked much, but everything he has leaked so far has been 100% accurate. He leaked NieR:Automata and Persona 3, 4, and 5 being revealed at the June 2022 Partner Showcase and he also leaked Bayonetta 3's exact release date. The F-Zero tease was his final gift to us before he returned to space.
 
In addition to NateDrake, SyluxHunter also hinted at F-Zero.

SyluxHunter hasn't leaked much, but everything he has leaked so far has been 100% accurate. He leaked NieR:Automata and Persona 3, 4, and 5 being revealed at the June 2022 Partner Showcase and he also leaked Bayonetta 3's exact release date. The F-Zero tease was his final gift to us before he returned to space.
I still hope F zero is coming this year. It not being in the direct hurt my soul. I feel empty every time I think about it.
 
0
There's just too much that seems to be leading into a new hardware reveal imo.
While cool, enjoyable and reassuring for H2 2023, this direct was entirely dedicated to smaller-scale titles and remakes/remasters.
The only brand new games from Nintendo were a 2D Mario, and a title focused on Peach with no title reveal for some reason.

This is exactly what I was thinking of with Nintendo announcing a lineup for current Switch until holidays 2023, so no one will be "worried" about current being left off while announcing their next gen.
A first reveal and introduction in July can still happen, but a proper presentation should be announced in September/October.

A lot of people are implying that this Direct makes Switch 2 impossible for this year or even early 2024, but have you considered that this is what Nintendo probably wants you to think?
They're good at this.


Even with constant and active Switch 2 discussion, they'll somehow manage to surprise everyone with an unexpected reveal, like "wtf, it's happening even though we just had a Direct with many games?!".
As Concernt said, and even though we knew about project NX in 2016, we had a 3DS dedicated Direct just before the Switch reveal and this also allowed for a smooth hardware transition in some way, which is most certainly what they want to happen again.
 
A lot of people are implying that this Direct makes Switch 2 impossible for this year or even early 2024, but have you considered that this is what Nintendo probably wants you to think?
They're good at this.
Nintendo do not care for the slightest second what we think.
It's a huge business that releases and markets hardware when the time is right for them, based on many metrics.
If they were to care about "messages" to customers, the last ones to give a shit about are the hardcore geeks who would buy day one buy a turd in a box as long as it was branded Nintendo.

People really, really overthink stuff on here.
 
The barren H2 theory is out of the window, as it always was. There was no need to announce anything what's coming after TotK before the game was out.
It's pretty apparent ever since few months that next system is Holiday 2024, and that's completely fine. They are gonna ride the train with GameCube remasters, 3DS remasters and other remakes. Things like the Peach game, FE remake and maybe even DK can be a Spring to Summer releases.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Super Mario RPG are the last Holiday games for Switch. The next system will probably be confirmed late March before FY ends in a press release for a Holiday release date.
 
Nintendo do not care for the slightest second what we think.
It's a huge business that releases and markets hardware when the time is right for them, based on many metrics.
If they were to care about "messages" to customers, the last ones to give a shit about are the hardcore geeks who would buy day one buy a turd in a box as long as it was branded Nintendo.
You mean like Everybody's 1-2-Switch?
 
The barren H2 theory is out of the window, as it always was. There was no need to announce anything what's coming after TotK before the game was out.
It's pretty apparent ever since few months that next system is Holiday 2024, and that's completely fine. They are gonna ride the train with GameCube remasters, 3DS remasters and other remakes. Things like the Peach game, FE remake and maybe even DK can be a Spring to Summer releases.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Super Mario RPG are the last Holiday games for Switch. The next system will probably be confirmed late March before FY ends in a press release for a Holiday release date.
I could see it launching spring (march ti'll mai) since it will sell out anyway and so they have 2 software sales bumps (console launch, holiday) instead of coasting and having them fall together (consoles will sell out regardless), also having a full FY kinda gives them the chance to boast "best first year of a console ever!".

But overall otherwise im with you on this assessment.

Especially Pikmin 4, with much better resolution with some higher res textures, would be lovely.
Of all those games, the only one i could see looking better is actually Pikmin 4. The others are crisp, not a single element seems compromised because of processing power, so where would the enhancement be? perfectly crisp 4k instead of 1080p? IMHO the styles are to clean/lacking in detail to really benefit from the resolution bump.
Pikmin 4? uh, from resolution, to draw distance, to tilt shift effect quality, to texture filtering, theres a lot that can be improved...
 
Look, I'm already disappointed that this thing is taking way too long for being announced.
At this point I don't care if I'm overly optimistic or even delusional, and that won't prevent me from enjoying some of the announced titles.
But regarding hardware speculation, I choose to not join the same boat as (seemingly) most people, and expect the unexpected.
I'll be able to handle the potential disappointment that come with it, but as I said, I'm already sad about how long it takes for this reveal anyway.
It's just more fun this way for me, rather than constantly being too pessimistic and/or realistic :)
 
I remember being told on another forum that Arkham Knight wouldn't be able to run on a Switch lol.

I don't think people realize how scalable some games are. I am currently taking note of all the games people are telling me have no chance of running on Drake and making a mental note of them.
 
Just for everyone’s convenience, here is the original leak and its followup:

FqKRBDzXsAEcvVy

At the time of the post (March 01 2023), the plan was to release a Switch 2 patch alongside the DLC2, which is scheduled for “early 2024”. If the leak is to be believed, the next-gen hardware should be released in or before early 2024. That plan may or may not have been changed though.
Winter 2023 still seems like it would be, well, 2023. If they weren't targeting this side of New Year's, I'd think they'd use just "Winter".

Since that post was before the announcement, I wonder if plans pulled the DLC BACK from 2024 and into late 2023? Hmm.
 
I remember being told on another forum that Arkham Knight wouldn't be able to run on a Switch lol.

I don't think people realize how scalable some games are. I am currently taking note of all the games people are telling me have no chance of running on Drake and making a mental note of them.
There are no games that have "no chance" of running on Drake except exclusives.
 
Nintendo do not care for the slightest second what we think.
It's a huge business that releases and markets hardware when the time is right for them, based on many metrics.
If they were to care about "messages" to customers, the last ones to give a shit about are the hardcore geeks who would buy day one buy a turd in a box as long as it was branded Nintendo.

People really, really overthink stuff on here.
Nintendo ABSOLUTELY CARE HUGELY WHAT PEOPLE THINK.

That's the WHOLE POINT OF PR! That's why they're so strict about it!

I doubt they're playing any mind games beyond reassuring existing owners that games are coming, but they ABSOLUTELY CARE about messages to customers, including to "geeks". Because GEEKS are their FOUNDATION.


They KNOW people like us will lap up a new console no questions asked, even if it doesn't even have games. People like us aren't important to their bottom line, sure, but keeping the dedicated fans on side is always going to be one of their goals. No matter how bad things get, Nintendo can be assured that the first few days and weeks of a console will sell healthily, if not sell out. That's good for them! And that sort of following is something you really do try to foster with customers, something they apparently are happy to do with things like the Super Mario RPG remake and Pikmin 1+2 remasters, which appeal hugely to that core audience.
 
Nintendo ABSOLUTELY CARE HUGELY WHAT PEOPLE THINK.

That's the WHOLE POINT OF PR! That's why they're so strict about it!

I doubt they're playing any mind games beyond reassuring existing owners that games are coming, but they ABSOLUTELY CARE about messages to customers, including to "geeks". Because GEEKS are their FOUNDATION.


They KNOW people like us will lap up a new console no questions asked, even if it doesn't even have games. People like us aren't important to their bottom line, sure, but keeping the dedicated fans on side is always going to be one of their goals. No matter how bad things get, Nintendo can be assured that the first few days and weeks of a console will sell healthily, if not sell out. That's good for them! And that sort of following is something you really do try to foster with customers, something they apparently are happy to do with things like the Super Mario RPG remake and Pikmin 1+2 remasters, which appeal hugely to that core audience.
Nintendo Marketing Department in Kyoto: "Right guys, time to plan the next Direct, the strategy is to make some forum geeks think Switch 2 isn't coming in 2023 and then we'll later spring it on them, they'll never see it coming LOL".

No, that's fanboy fantasy stuff.
 
Winter 2023 still seems like it would be, well, 2023.
I don't wanna be that guy, but i am gonna be that guy. Winter 2023 means the season of Winter that starts in December of 2023. This season lasts until March 2024. Winter 2024 starts in December 2024. I hope this helps!

I personally speculate the Indigo Disk DLC to release in January of 2024, with the Teal Mask coming in September of this year.
 
Welp, I’m in the market for a Zelda OLED. If I don’t find one, I don’t have any problem getting a Pokemon one :p
 
0
Marketing wise they would have announced Early 2024 if it was beyond March.

Winter 2023 means anything from December till February

I don't think 2023 for Switch 2 is off the table, when looking at other topics everyone sounds like Nintendo announced a huge line up but in fact it's not, just a decent line up


Announcement in July 23 for release in November 23 with Metroid Prime 4 as the big Switch 2 power showcase game is very plausible, especially when looking at the last years of the 3DS or the Wii U, Nintendo was still pushing good games and will never stop, new console or not
 
Marketing wise they would have announced Early 2024 if it was beyond March.

Winter 2023 means anything from December till February

I don't think 2023 for Switch 2 is off the table, when looking at other topics everyone sounds like Nintendo announced a huge line up but in fact it's not, just a decent line up


Announcement in July 23 for release in November 23 with Metroid Prime 4 as the big Switch 2 power showcase game is very plausible, especially when looking at the last years of the 3DS or the Wii U, Nintendo was still pushing good games and will never stop, new console or not
Why specifically July 23?
 
0
Guys I don't think that these games indicate that a 2023 release date for the Switch 2 is off

Particularly when looking at line ups from previous years a next gen was announced.

Switch 1 has still 2-3 years before being discontinued (according to Nintendo it was at half life 2 years ago), Switch 2 will be introduced in 2023 or 2024 maximum for sure.

2016


2017

New console or not, Nintendo will keep pushing good games and this is their strenght, they won't abandon Switch 1 users and so on.

If Switch 2 was about to drop this year that would be with a big game (Metroid Prime 4) and Switch 1 games

Switch 2 will cater to hardcore gamers and early adopters in the first time with its higher pricing (At least $399) and performances, Switch 1 will stay relevant for a bit more
 
Nintendo Marketing Department in Kyoto: "Right guys, time to plan the next Direct, the strategy is to make some forum geeks think Switch 2 isn't coming in 2023 and then we'll later spring it on them, they'll never see it coming LOL".

No, that's fanboy fantasy stuff.
Yeah, that isn't what I said.
 
Nintendo is known to announce new hardware in July (every 2 years) for a Fall release (exception was Switch 1 which was a delayed Holiday 2016 launch)

Jeff Grubb has reported an undisclosed event in July as well and there is no smoke without fire


The holiday line up is ok but nothing crazy compared to other platforms
 
I don't wanna be that guy, but i am gonna be that guy. Winter 2023 means the season of Winter that starts in December of 2023. This season lasts until March 2024. Winter 2024 starts in December 2024. I hope this helps!

I personally speculate the Indigo Disk DLC to release in January of 2024, with the Teal Mask coming in September of this year.
Winter 2023 starts in November immediately after Halloween.

You know.

The festival that marks the start of Winter?

Winter varies by culture and hemisphere, yes, but Nintendo DOESN'T use "2023" to mean 2024 (nor should anyone, because that's obviously asinine.

Meteorologically, Winter 2023 is January to February inclusive and December. Not December to... March?

March. St. Patrick's day comes before the Spring Equinox.

Because it MARKS THE MIDDLE OF SPRING (not Patrick's actual date of death.) in the solar seasons system, which place the equinox in the middle of Spring and begins Spring on February 1st (with another festival where I am.)

Astronomical seasons starting on the equnoxes and soltices are generally avoided in marketing because they are utterly absurd. With very, very few exceptions, when a company says Winter they mean meteorological Winter, and when they say 2023, they mean 2023.

2023 is not 2024. Hope this helps.
 
Well, at least if my gut feeling it somewhat representative of Nintendo's plans, we don't have to wait much longer to finally know if we're seeing ReDraketed in 2023 or 2024.

I can definitely see some of those 2024 games from yesterday's Direct being cross-gen. Especially that Peach game we basically know nothing about yet.
 
Winter 2023 starts in November immediately after Halloween.

You know.

The festival that marks the start of Winter?

Winter varies by culture and hemisphere, yes, but Nintendo DOESN'T use "2023" to mean 2024 (nor should anyone, because that's obviously asinine.

Meteorologically, Winter 2023 is January to February inclusive and December. Not December to... March?

March. St. Patrick's day comes before the Spring Equinox.

Because it MARKS THE MIDDLE OF SPRING (not Patrick's actual date of death.)

Astronomical seasons starting on the equnoxes and soltices are generally avoided in marketing because they are utterly absurd. With very, very few exceptions, when a company says Winter they mean meteorological Winter, and when they say 2023, they mean 2023.

2023 is not 2024. Hope this helps.

I agree with you and think Nintendo would have used Early 2024 if it was planned for Early 2024

Winter 2023 is just vague and they doing it on purpose to fuel the hype
 
I agree with you and think Nintendo would have used Early 2024 if it was planned for Early 2024

Winter 2023 is just vague and they doing it on purpose to fuel the hype
I think "Winter" would have sufficed if they weren't sure whether it would fall in late this year or early next. The fact they specifically use 2023 is very telling. Whether it meets the target or not, it's planned for this side of the New Year. (Plus, Hidden Treasure of Area Zero is probably the Pokémon Company's holiday title, just like how the Sword and Shield Expansion Pass was their 2020 holiday title.)
 
I think "Winter" would have sufficed if they weren't sure whether it would fall in late this year or early next. The fact they specifically use 2023 is very telling. Whether it meets the target or not, it's planned for this side of the New Year. (Plus, Hidden Treasure of Area Zero is probably the Pokémon Company's holiday title, just like how the Sword and Shield Expansion Pass was their 2020 holiday title.)
Exactly

Realistically we looking at a 2 month gap between the two releases. I'd see Pt 1 end of September and Pt 2 end of November, no way they are missing out on the holiday sales

And with the leaker that exactly leaked all those DLCs on top of that announced that a 4K Patch was in the works to release alongside the DLC 2, well I think we will end the year on a bang.
 
Exactly

Realistically we looking at a 2 month gap between the two releases. I'd see Pt 1 end of September and Pt 2 end of November, no way they are missing out on the holiday sales

And with the leaker that exactly leaked all those DLCs on top of that announced that a 4K Patch was in the works to release alongside the DLC 2, well I think we will end the year on a bang.
Don't get my hopes up too much, but I could see it happening. While I don't want to overhype myself, the fact is you're not wrong on any of those detailed we just don't know if those details are wholly accurate or not
 
Winter 2023 starts in November immediately after Halloween.

You know.

The festival that marks the start of Winter?

Winter varies by culture and hemisphere, yes, but Nintendo DOESN'T use "2023" to mean 2024 (nor should anyone, because that's obviously asinine.

Meteorologically, Winter 2023 is January to February inclusive and December. Not December to... March?

March. St. Patrick's day comes before the Spring Equinox.

Because it MARKS THE MIDDLE OF SPRING (not Patrick's actual date of death.) in the solar seasons system, which place the equinox in the middle of Spring and begins Spring on February 1st (with another festival where I am.)

Astronomical seasons starting on the equnoxes and soltices are generally avoided in marketing because they are utterly absurd. With very, very few exceptions, when a company says Winter they mean meteorological Winter, and when they say 2023, they mean 2023.

2023 is not 2024. Hope this helps.
Okay, first off it is simply not true that Winter starts right after Halloween. A quick Google search "when does winter start" and "when does winter end" will prove you wrong.

Winter of 2023 starts December 21, and it ends March 2024.

"Winter 2023 is January and February inclusive and December" Yes, that is correct. With March as well. "Not December to...March?" I know and understand that it is a bit confusing that Winter of 2023 lasts until March of 2024, but it's true.

St Patrick's day is March 17, right? That's still Winter, because that lasts until March 22. It is most definitely not the middle of Spring.

"2023 is not 2024" Again, its not that simple. A Winter of 2023 release window can mean any day from December 21 of 2023 to March 20 of 2024.

Yes, they could have also used "Late 2023" or "Early 2024" as a release window. But they didn't, the release window is Winter of 2023.
 
Yeah, Nintendo is not announcing the two main launch titles for the Switch 2 (Mario Wonder and Mario RPG) before announcing the actual console and thus forcing Nintendo to show footage that looks massively worse than it would.

That doesn't make any sense.

They're not slotting another major game in October or November either.

It's just not happening.
 
I wonder how barren 2024 will be if this is indeed the last big year for the Switch.

Next year should have:

Peach game
Prime 4
Fire Emblem 4 Remake
LM2 remaster
Pokemon spinoff RPG 2024
Any non-Pokemon launch games for the Switch 2

Obviously the lineup depends on how ambitious the games I listed are, it's hard to tell right now.
 
0
Don't get my hopes up too much, but I could see it happening. While I don't want to overhype myself, the fact is you're not wrong on any of those detailed we just don't know if those details are wholly accurate or not

I won't hype you too much but another note is that July 15 2023 marks the 40 years anniversary of the Famicom (NES) and Nintendo as a japanese company cares about their key anniversary dates

Yeah, Nintendo is not announcing the two main launch titles for the Switch 2 (Mario Wonder and Mario RPG) before announcing the actual console and thus forcing Nintendo to show footage that looks massively worse than it would.

That doesn't make any sense.

They're not slotting another major game in October or November either.

It's just not happening.

Who said those would be the launch titles for the Switch 2 ? At best they would be ports from Switch, not the other way around, Switch user base is huge you can't force them into a new console harshly, it has to be done smoothly,

You want exclusives games, 4K support, better performances, and access to your old library ? Cool pay $399 for the Switch 2
You want to buy or stay on Switch 1 to play classic games ? No problem, we will keep releasing games but less and less so don't wait too long yeah ? $299 for the Switch 1
 
Nintendo Marketing Department in Kyoto: "Right guys, time to plan the next Direct, the strategy is to make some forum geeks think Switch 2 isn't coming in 2023 and then we'll later spring it on them, they'll never see it coming LOL".

No, that's fanboy fantasy stuff.
Ya, when you reason it out like that. But what if you reason it like this:

“Because we have Switch 2 coming we need to have a good direct to reassure (especially recent) Switch 1 owners that the platform is, and will be, very well supported in the near term. We don’t want to create a negative buzz that we are abandoning our platform. We need at least a couple announcements for games in 2024 but we don’t want to use our big Switch 2 title reveals, what do we got?”

#team2023 (though I admit, it seems less likely)
 
Ya, when you reason it out like that. But what if you reason it like this:

“Because we have Switch 2 coming we need to have a good direct to reassure (especially recent) Switch 1 owners that the platform is, and will be, very well supported in the near term. We don’t want to create a negative buzz that we are abandoning our platform. We need at least a couple announcements for games in 2024 but we don’t want to use our big Switch 2 title reveals, what do we got?”

#team2023 (though I admit, it seems less likely)

This is 100% on point and how a multi billion dollar company operates, especially with a user base as huge as the Switch, you have to be very careful on how you are moving
 
I wonder how some people in this thread/board react if ReDraketed has launched and Nintendo or other pubs/devs still announce occassional Switch games.

Because that's absolutely going to be a thing.
 
I wonder how some people in this thread/board react if ReDraketed has launched and Nintendo or other pubs/devs still announce occassional Switch games.

Because that's absolutely going to be a thing.

I don't understand how everyone thinks Switch 2 release or reveal means Switch 1 instant death, I still don't get this reasoning.

The two will co habitate together for a while and it will be the best for us
 
Yeah, Nintendo is not announcing the two main launch titles for the Switch 2 (Mario Wonder and Mario RPG) before announcing the actual console and thus forcing Nintendo to show footage that looks massively worse than it would.

That doesn't make any sense.

They're not slotting another major game in October or November either.

It's just not happening.
It really puts me off when people make statements like “it’s just not happening”. Hey, that’s your opinion and that’s cool but there’s no need to state it so strongly because in the end we do not know this company’s plans.

I consider it entirely reasonable for them to launch Switch 2 with one exclusive first party game in 2023. This Switch 1 2023 lineup is just icing on the cake. And they don’t need more (exclusive) launch titles then 1 because the thing is going to sell out anyway from the base. They need big tent pole games throughout 2024 including what I bet will be an amazing holiday 24 3D Mario.

They can show off a lot of 2024 and beyond games in progress at the reveal and get the hype really flowing. I’m expecting some kind of tech showcase demo like they’ve done in the past because I think the power boost is the new consoles strongest selling point.
 
It really puts me off when people make statements like “it’s just not happening”. Hey, that’s your opinion and that’s cool but there’s no need to state it so strongly because in the end we do not know this company’s plans.

I consider it entirely reasonable for them to launch Switch 2 with one exclusive first party game in 2023. This Switch 1 2023 lineup is just icing on the cake. And they don’t need more (exclusive) launch titles then 1 because the thing is going to sell out anyway from the base. They need big tent pole games throughout 2024 including what I bet will be an amazing holiday 24 3D Mario.

They can show off a lot of 2024 and beyond games in progress at the reveal and get the hype really flowing. I’m expecting some kind of tech showcase demo like they’ve done in the past because I think the power boost is the new consoles strongest selling point.

I mean we are in 2023 and there is still a shit ton of PS4 games (list below) being released while PS5 is still scarce, same will happen with Switch 1 - Switch 2 (even though I think Nintendo is better at planning their first party games)


June, 2023​

June, 2023 (Tentative)​

Q2 2023​

July, 2023​

August, 2023​

September, 2023​

Q3 2023​

October, 2023​

November, 2023​

November, 2023 (Tentative)​

Q4 2023​

2023 (Tentative)​

January, 2024​

Q1 2024​

2024 (Tentative)​

 
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