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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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phyl0x said:
they did do this in april 2016, way before the october reveal...wildly different situation. but an announcement before the reveal

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NX is a bit different. They announced it in 2015 with the DeNA partnership to confirm they aren't exiting the console space. At the time, Wii U was pretty much dead so there was no concern of announcing it a bit early.
 
lexony said:
I don‘t know. While I see that times have changed, I would not rule out that they could just say around their next IR report something like „hey we plan to release ne hardware for next year, more information soon, please don‘t ask us annoying questions in the meantime.“ (With soon meaning a reveal trailer at some point this Winter).
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I entirely disagree, but hey, the next IR report is on Thursday, so...

phyl0x said:
they did do this in april 2016, way before the october reveal...wildly different situation. but an announcement before the reveal

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The NX was announced in March 2015 during the press conference where Nintendo detailed their partnership with DeNA for mobile games. And in just the most recent investor Q&A, Furukawa explicitly stated what many of us have long argued, which is that the NX was in a unique situation and its announcement/reveal schedule is not something that future consoles will follow.
 
LiC said:
Not to mention, Nintendo doesn't do those kind of announcements anymore. The last hardware to be announced without a true reveal (NX doesn't count) was the Wii U, which happened before Nintendo Directs even existed. It's prehistory.
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Why doesn't NX count? Even foregoing that, they've had a press release or statement predate proper reveals of pretty much every other console they've released in the past 20+ years. I can't say they won't forego that strategy and just have a YouTube video drop or something, but... why? Like, yeah, NX's initial announcement was tied into the DeNA partnership, but as I just said, announcement before reveal was still par for the course either way.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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OctoSplattack said:
Why doesn't NX count? Even foregoing that, they've had a press release or statement predate proper reveals of pretty much every other console they've released in the past 20+ years. I can't say they won't forego that strategy and just have a YouTube video drop or something, but... why? Like, yeah, NX's initial announcement was tied into the DeNA partnership, but as I just said, announcement before reveal was still par for the course either way.
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This discussion's been done to death and I don't feel like rehashing it. I'll let Furukawa speak for me instead.

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And like I said, past consoles are prehistory. The Wii U was announced over 12 years ago. You might as well ask how we know Nintendo is going to do a simultaneous worldwide launch and not stagger it by several months.
 
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lexony said:
I don‘t know. While I see that times have changed, I would not rule out that they could just say around their next IR report something like „hey we plan to release new hardware for next year, more information soon, please don‘t ask us annoying questions in the meantime.“ (With soon meaning a reveal trailer at some point this Winter).
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well Furukawa stated in most recent Q A with Nintendo shareholders, that the anouncement of Switch was a special case, and in the case of Switch sucessor, i will be different, maybe this thursday, Nintendo will Knowles, Nintendo is working on the Switch sucessor, stay tune for future informarion regarding the console next year/fiscal year.
 
LiC said:
This discussion's been done to death and I don't feel like rehashing it. I'll let Furukawa speak for me instead.

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And like I said, past consoles are prehistory. The Wii U was announced over 12 years ago. You might as well ask how we know Nintendo is going to do a simultaneous worldwide launch and not stagger it by several months.
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But this is about the March 2015 reveal of an NX https://www.engadget.com/2015-03-17-nintendo-nx-console.html

the tweet i posted was April 2016 and gave the launch window (they also annouced zelda botw would be available around launch for it at that time).
 
Quoted by: LiC
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LiC said:
This discussion's been done to death and I don't feel like rehashing it. I'll let Furukawa speak for me instead.

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And like I said, past consoles are prehistory. The Wii U was announced over 12 years ago. You might as well ask how we know Nintendo is going to do a simultaneous worldwide launch and not stagger it by several months.
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i kinda predicting a summer reveal for a fall/holiday release
 
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phyl0x said:
But this is about the March 2015 reveal of an NX https://www.engadget.com/2015-03-17-nintendo-nx-console.html

the tweet i posted was April 2016 and gave the launch window (they also annouced zelda botw would be available around launch for it at that time).
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Yeah? The March 2015 reveal of "NX" is what made it possible to put out periodic updates like that to keep people interested in it and not thinking about the failures of the Wii U. You can't just look at the April 2016 tweet* in isolation and say they could theoretically do that for a future console. It wasn't a hardware announcement and it doesn't stand on its own. That was all part of the entire unique way Nintendo handled the Switch, which will never again be replicated (even if there was another Wii U flop, it won't coincide with something as major as the merging of two distinct types of hardware into one).

*Which just for the record was echoing a press release/investor call. They weren't actually announcing things via Twitter.
 
LiC said:
This discussion's been done to death and I don't feel like rehashing it. I'll let Furukawa speak for me instead.

Capture.png


And like I said, past consoles are prehistory. The Wii U was announced over 12 years ago. You might as well ask how we know Nintendo is going to do a simultaneous worldwide launch and not stagger it by several months.
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I feel like he was literally talking about timing in that Q&A. As in, they wouldn't have talked about it as early as they did if it wasn't for the DeNA partnership, as opposed to how they would have communicated it in a different way. Nintendo has always just talked about future hardware before showing it, so it may sound a bit stubborn, but I don't see that answer as an indication saying that they'd do otherwise for the Switch NG. I'm convinced that we'll get an announcement first, then an actual reveal later. If we do get a reveal right off the bat as you suggest, I'm not going to complain at all, though.

Regardless, I'd be shocked to hear Nintendo talk about the hardware themselves before the holiday season is over, but that's just because I've been assuming this is a Holiday 2024 launch. If it is dropping in summer of next year, then them talking about it by the end of this summer makes sense. Feels like it would take too much attention away from their current Switch lineup though, but if they feel like their sales projections wouldn't be harmed too much, then why not?
 
Quoted by: LiC
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OctoSplattack said:
I feel like he was literally talking about timing in that Q&A. As in, they wouldn't have talked about it as early as they did if it wasn't for the DeNA partnership, as opposed to how they would have communicated it in a different way. Nintendo has always just talked about future hardware before showing it, so it may sound a bit stubborn, but I don't see that answer as an indication saying that they'd do otherwise for the Switch NG. I'm convinced that we'll get an announcement first, then an actual reveal later. If we do get a reveal right off the bat as you suggest, I'm not going to complain at all, though.

Regardless, I'd be shocked to hear Nintendo talk about the hardware themselves before the holiday season is over, but that's just because I've been assuming this is a Holiday 2024 launch. If it is dropping in summer of next year, then them talking about it by the end of this summer makes sense. Feels like it would take too much attention away from their current Switch lineup though, but if they feel like their sales projections wouldn't be harmed too much, then why not?
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To be clear, I'm not saying Furukawa confirmed they'll never do a Wii U-type announcement again. I posted that to support my argument that "the NX doesn't count." It was very unique circumstances, and we don't know what would have happened in the alternate universe where it was business as usual for Nintendo ahead of the launch of the Switch (or Indy or whatever).
 
eye0h said:
Grubb said he has been hearing all year (stresses the all year part) that an announcement would be this summer. Almost verbatim. Around 17 minutes in, no timestamp because it’s live but yeah.
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Thanks for this. I don’t know if Grubb’s info is accurate, but a summer 2023 reveal would only be odd if one believes in VGC’s report of an H2 2024 launch, of which I’m not so certain.

TLZ said:
Btw, who is Stephen Totilo? Is he reliable? Sorry I’ve no idea. Don’t think I read the name before.
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I’ll let Washington Post introduced his background:

“Stephen Totilo, editor in chief of gaming news site Kotaku, announced his departure [on Feb 5 2021]. […] Under his leadership, the site became a destination for coverage of labor and harassment issues in the gaming industry and launched the careers of a number of prominent games journalists. […] Under Totilo, Kotaku published stories that analyzed video games through critical lenses that touched upon sociopolitical issues.”

He’s currently the gaming editor at Axios, and continues doing stellar works. We are talking about him because he teased about drafting a report of Japanese devs having (presumably Switch NG) dev kit.

Edit: typo
 
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Grubb seems decently reliable, so I'm lead to believe he has a reason for thinking it'll be revealed this summer. Whether that comes true or not, it's clear that there's real info out there now, and we're on the edge of hearing much much more.
 
We are finally near the end of times. The starting line I suppose.
 
Would be pretty exciting for a reveal to happen in the next couple months.

I think there’d be value to putting to rest the idea of backwards compatibility earlier than later. I might actually start to pick up digital titles from this year forward if I have some assurance that those same titles will still be there for me over the next generation. It’s one of my big sticking points on Nintendo digital right now.

Smile said:
Grubb seems decently reliable, so I'm lead to believe he has a reason for thinking it'll be revealed this summer. Whether that comes true or not, it's clear that there's real info out there now, and we're on the edge of hearing much much more.
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Grubb has been saying “I’ve been hearing {{floating_date}}” in regards to Switch revisions or successors since 2021. He’s never confident in it when he says it, but it’s hard for me to take anything he says on the subject seriously.

I haven’t had a listen yet to this round, so maybe the framing is a bit different?
 
karmitt said:
Would be pretty exciting for a reveal to happen in the next couple months.

I think there’d be value to putting to rest the idea of backwards compatibility earlier than later. I might actually start to pick up digital titles from this year forward if I have some assurance that those same titles will still be there for me over the next generation. It’s one of my big sticking points on Nintendo digital right now.



Grubb has been saying “I’ve been hearing {{floating_date}}” in regards to Switch revisions or successors since 2021. He’s never confident in it when he says it, but it’s hard for me to take anything he says on the subject seriously.

I haven’t had a listen yet to this round, so maybe the framing is a bit different?
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He said all throughout this year he has been hearing about an announcement in summer.
 
karmitt said:
Would be pretty exciting for a reveal to happen in the next couple months.

I think there’d be value to putting to rest the idea of backwards compatibility earlier than later. I might actually start to pick up digital titles from this year forward if I have some assurance that those same titles will still be there for me over the next generation. It’s one of my big sticking points on Nintendo digital right now.

Grubb has been saying “I’ve been hearing {{floating_date}}” in regards to Switch revisions or successors since 2021. He’s never confident in it when he says it, but it’s hard for me to take anything he says on the subject seriously.

I haven’t had a listen yet to this round, so maybe the framing is a bit different?
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I transcribed what Grubb said in two videos today here.
 
I personally would be very content with a "The next generation of Nintendo Switch is coming in 2024" as the only info we receive from Nintendo themselves until early next year
 
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Kazuyamishima said:
Of course it will be suitable why wouldn't it be? Once again I don't think anyone is arguing that LCD is not suitable and is completely trash it's just that it's weird to take a step backwards in terms of display technology on a successor
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There are plenty of people arguing that and you don't really need to go to the furthest reaches of the net to see it.

And it really isn't that weird since this is a mass-market device that is being manufactured to be sold at a profit while also being affordable.

The OG Switch's LCD wasn't even all that bad. It's actually more color accurate than the OLED Switch's screen and got the job done. To me, this is another Dualshock 3 to Dualshock 4 and Dualsense scenario where the battery life of the last two PlayStation controllers are terrible but basically everything else felt like a much needed improvement.

Given the success of the SWOLED we probably get that SWOLED 2 model down the line so I take no issue with them possibly going LCD at launch.
 
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I'm still on the "believe it when I see it" regarding this summer being announced. I just don't feel it's worth potentially sabotaging an entire holiday for, especially if it doesn't come out till second half of 2024
 
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While we wait for the Q1 earning release, here's a preview to whet our appetite: Bloomberg Japan reported that many financial analysts are expecting Nintendo to post its highest ever operating profit for Q1, beating the previous high of 144.7 billion yen recorded in April-June 2020. As Nintendo is flying high financially, we probably can expect the unexpected from the company. Would the Switch NG be launched with a razor thin margin? Do they dare to announce a new model before the holiday season with no fear of sales cannibalization? Would they eat the storage costs and stockpile warehouses full of the NG for a huge launch? I'm ready to be shocked, awed, and/or confounded.

Edited for clarity
 
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oldpuck said:
Yes, as you follow up IGZO is a TFT tech. Sharp has made IGZO LCDs before, and presumably still do. My understanding is that IGZO screens are thinner and brighter, but the power savings mostly come from the ability to hold an image for a long time while turning the refresh rate down to nothing, something that is super useful on a phone looking at a static webpage, but not a huge advantage in video games.

No idea what the relative cost is!
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I don't believe it's ever been disproven that the innolux panels in lite/ v2 are not Igzo.

And as I posted probably dozens of times. Innolux and sharp are basically the same company.

Sharp and Innolux to integrate their display business - with a focus on IGZO and OLEDs | OLED Info

A few weeks after Sharp agreed to sell a two-thirds stake to Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision) for $3.5 billion, the Taiwanese company is starting to integrate Sharp's display business with Innolux, Foxconn Taiwanese display arm.Innolux AMOLED prototype, 2012Today we hear a report from Taiwan that...
www.oled-info.com www.oled-info.com
 
phyl0x said:
they did do this in april 2016, way before the october reveal...wildly different situation. but an announcement before the reveal

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Nintendo made this Tweet at the same time they announced in their investor's briefing that the NX would come out that financial year. The timing makes perfect sense when you factor that in.

Nintendo did the exact same thing for every previous new gen hardware announcement, the only difference was that, before Twitter, they'd send out a press release for the public announcement instead.

If the Switch's successor really is launching in H2 2024, that means it's coming out next financial year. Makes more sense for Nintendo to make the announcement either during their Q3 (Jan/Feb) or Q4 (Apr/May) investors briefing.
 
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I'm in the camp that thinks Nintendo will acknowledge that a new console is releasing before properly revealing it, well in advance. I never believed this idea that they would just drop a trailer on YouTube a few months before release, which is why team 2023 seemed far fetched after like April.

If I had to randomly guess, I would say they have a press release to confirm a new console is coming out (maybe in early 2024 to provide some transparency to shareholders for the new fiscal year), then a reveal later in the year with an event announced for closer to launch, maybe September.

What's interesting is that Nintendo during the Switch era has become a well oiled PR machine. We pretty much know the timing and format of their Directs for the year and they never stray too much from that. With a new console we are bound to see something new from them, which is fun.
 
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Hermii said:
I don't believe it's ever been disproven that the innolux panels in lite/ v2 are not Igzo.

And as I posted probably dozens of times. Innolux and sharp are basically the same company.

Sharp and Innolux to integrate their display business - with a focus on IGZO and OLEDs | OLED Info

A few weeks after Sharp agreed to sell a two-thirds stake to Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision) for $3.5 billion, the Taiwanese company is starting to integrate Sharp's display business with Innolux, Foxconn Taiwanese display arm.Innolux AMOLED prototype, 2012Today we hear a report from Taiwan that...
www.oled-info.com www.oled-info.com
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Iowa uses the exact same Innolux displays Icosa used.
See: https://github.com/CTCaer/hekate/blob/6e954f5cdff2e73d68ff2c9b463197c99544b387/bdk/display/di.h#L728
 
Shoulder said:
I find it rather interesting that at the time there was disappointment with Skyward Sword remaster because as far as I could tell, it had a ton of QOL improvements, more control options, AND most importantly, 60FPS!!!

Seriously, it's one of the things that I hear very little about, but I would argue the jump from 30fps to 60fps is huge, especially since it's typically rare to see for any Zelda game these days.
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I mean it's a port of a Wii game... I can't imagine the 1080p 60fps was too hard to program on the switch. I'm sure the split controls took the longest to develop. They could have improved lighting and texture, but oh well. QoL features were nice and took care of the smaller stuff.

I think the most troubling for me was that they were charging $60 retail for it.
Sol said:
So what would be the more ideal RAM configuration for Switch NG?

A) 12 GB of LPDDR5X (10 GB available for games)
B) 16 GB of LPDDR5 (14 GB available for games)

Would the extra bandwidth of LPDDR5X make up for having 4 fewer GB?
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Easily A. I've said this before many times, 16GB for Switch 2 isn't needed at all. It's nice to have, but diminishing returns to have the same amount of RAM as PS5/series X, especially when the OS likely won't be as big. 12GB RAM would be fantastic, and having more bandwidth at 12GB vs less bandwidth at 16GB is better.

Switch 2's RAM bandwidth will be among the bigger bottlenecks of the system, along with CPU when it comes to performance and ports.. Having more bandwidth from LPDDR5X (Whether 7500 or the full 8533 Mbps) vs LPDDR5's LPDDR5 6400 Mbps will be far more useful than more RAM. At max speed, 136 GB/s could do a lot more than 102 GB/s.

The less bandwidth we have, the less the GPU can take advantage of it (a certain amount will be saved for the CPU). I believe Thraktor, RedDredd, and others posted GB/s scenarios based on the number of TFLOPs Switch 2 could have with 102GB/s. 4tflops wouldn't sit well with that much bandwidth and would be diminishing returns, but 3.2-3.5 would do better.

Could 136 GB/s work with a 4 tflops GPU in docked? Maybe. But I think 20-30% more bandwidth at 12GB/s will make a bigger difference than 4GB more RAM at 102 GB/s in regards to performance for Switch 2.

I don't know if 16GB LPDDR5 would use more power than 12GB LPDDR5 with 33% faster speed. But the former would take up more space.
 
An announcement in 2023 for late 2024 doesn’t make sense.

Ofc I hope Grubb is right, but this could mean that the console is coming sooner than later
 
The most likely situation i could see happening with a late 2024 release is Nintendo announcing the Switch 2 in summer 2024 during their usual summer Direct time window. Not in the Direct per se, but rather close before it so consumers know there'll be a new console and then Nintendo simply follows up with the proper summer Direct shortly after that's all about new game announcements for said new console to generate hype.
 
I see many speculations of a Sharp LCD panel based on the Mochizuki report. While I can’t say for certain that his report was erroneous, there was no other Japanese new outlet corroborating it (e.g., Nikkei, NHK, Reuters, Asahi, Yumiuri, and TBS); even the Bloomberg Japan published a different report that made no mention of the gaming console deal. Any western articles that I saw were merely quoting Mochizuki. He was the single source of the whole story.

It doesn’t make much business sense either. Last fiscal quarter, Sharp suffered a loss in the magnitude of 220 billion yen ($1.6 billion) most due to its LCD business. The Sharp management stated clearly to their shareholders that the company is transitioning their low-profit mobile display business to other more profitable categories (source):

EdO2rCs.png

dM88fjQ.png


So I really don’t know how the Mochizuki report came about. On a related note, Panasonic announced on Monday that the company is liquidating its LCD subsidiary (Panasonic Liquid Crystal Display Co.). Japan has not been able to compete in the LCD market for years, and I wonder when Hon Hai Foxconn will stop sinking money into Sharp’s gigantic LCD hole.
 
Smile said:
Grubb seems decently reliable, so I'm lead to believe he has a reason for thinking it'll be revealed this summer. Whether that comes true or not, it's clear that there's real info out there now, and we're on the edge of hearing much much more.
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Exactly, my memory is probably not serving me right, but a quick question for those who remember:
We are at a point now where the console is out in more people's hands, and it does not seem that far off that we ll get info on the features, which we got last time in July 2016, with a reveal that followed a few months after.
So does anyone know where we are compared to the NX reveal pattern ? Like when did people start saying devkits were available more widely ? Would be an indication.
I am not a specialist and have no intel whatsoever (hell this forum has become the best source to collect info), but seems to me the recent stream of "leaks" indicates we may not be that far from knowing no? Then announcement and release could happen over the course of 6-9 months.
 
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