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Only way I'd see them releasing in the summer is if Splatoon 4 is their big launch title and that's such a far out scenario that I wouldn't believe it even though I'm the one who just said it
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
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D
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Adulfzen
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Variable Refresh Rate is the first thing that comes to mind for me which would definitely benefit an handheld device.
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Question - does OLED really raise the price substantially?
I remember when the article from Bloomberg came out saying the unit likely only costs around $10 more to produce, so they’d be seeing higher profit margins.
Nintendo notably responded by saying:
Did we ever get to the bottom of this? Is Nintendo actually refuting the BOM statement here? Or there something else at play that’s factored into profit margins?
Edit:
Assuming it’s not expensive, what are the drawbacks these days? We’re seeing expensive devices pass on them, like the ROG Ally, and even the most premium tier of Steam Deck. Sony wasn’t willing to put one in the Q as well, despite a history of using them.
I remember when the article from Bloomberg came out saying the unit likely only costs around $10 more to produce, so they’d be seeing higher profit margins.
Nintendo notably responded by saying:
Did we ever get to the bottom of this? Is Nintendo actually refuting the BOM statement here? Or there something else at play that’s factored into profit margins?
Edit:
Assuming it’s not expensive, what are the drawbacks these days? We’re seeing expensive devices pass on them, like the ROG Ally, and even the most premium tier of Steam Deck. Sony wasn’t willing to put one in the Q as well, despite a history of using them.
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It was a long time ago. 2019? I assume that the deal fell through and instead we got the OLED model, but I suppose it's possible it was the beginning of Switch 2 R&D? Seems wild.
The power savings from IGZO screens seem unlikely to pay off on a video game console which basically never shows a static image
LiC
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Shoulder
Koopa
Fully agreed. No other chip like it existed at the time that was cost efficient, powerful for its size, and readily available. So even when Switch 2 launches in 2024 or thereabouts, the T239 would still be probably the most powerful SoC for the job as a gaming-based chip for the price.
I find it rather interesting that at the time there was disappointment with Skyward Sword remaster because as far as I could tell, it had a ton of QOL improvements, more control options, AND most importantly, 60FPS!!!
Seriously, it's one of the things that I hear very little about, but I would argue the jump from 30fps to 60fps is huge, especially since it's typically rare to see for any Zelda game these days.
(Honestly, I can't tell if you're being serious or not...)
All I want is to combine the first two games into a single large game, and call it a day (Hell, I'm surprised absolutely NO ONE has taken on the job of modifying the GBA ROMS to effectively combine them into a single game). Making it a HD-2D style game would be gravy, and I wouldn't expect them to make it fully 3D or anything.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
From Nintendo’s own financials around that time the OLED had margins as they call it “lower profit margins compared to other models” citing “increased component costs” while using the semiconductor shortage as an example.
There are plenty of other things that are factored in such as shipping. One year Nintendo did various very costly special shipping methods at that decreased the profit margin quite a bit. As noted above scarcity of product along with the quantity of people who could supply it. Take WiiU for instance that used an outdated chip that was custom.
Edit: I forgot to add that the Tweet in question comes from their Investor account so it very much was a refutation. I think it highly reckless for Bloomberg to have done since it inflates expectations of higher profits. As we saw through Nintendo’s financials it didn’t make the crazy profit as was implied.
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BloodMoon
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I would guess before, but that’s mainly because I’ve wanted it since about 2017!
To me it just doesn’t make sense for Nintendo to put more effort into making them ‘NG Appropriate’ if you get what I mean. WWHD and TPHD in their current states would still look pretty good on the base Switch and, if you believe a couple of insiders, they are ‘ready to go’
Perfect scenario for me would be release in the next 6-12 months, with the NG able to give it a good upscale once it is out.
Mekanos
300 Years Of Gyudon
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50/50 on them (or one of them) being released in the Switch's last quarter or being saved as an early Switch 2 release to get some Zelda games out there while the next one is being worked on.
Shoulder
Koopa
On the one hand, I think "Why?" But then I realize that despite the numbers, there are still tens of millions of gamers that have yet to buy into current-gen (myself included).
Not sure on how well, or poorly Jedi Survivor sold though, so maybe it's they feel they have to to recoup their investment?
EDIT: And yes, Switch version inbound I'd say. Bring on the last of the "impossible" ports, baby!!!
SirArthur
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Yup. I think it was in the VGC video of the next switch, that a comment on next-gen sales being a bit slow. So I think at this point in the gen we might see other examples.
OP
OP
I think Nintendo's refuting the claim that the OLED model's profit margin is higher than the Nintendo Switch's profit margin, considering Shuntaro Furukawa re-iterated during the Q&A session for the nine months financial results briefing for the fiscal year ending on March 2023 that the OLED model's profit margin has a a lower than the Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch Lite.
I think the use of metal for the OLED model (here and here) also contributed to the OLED model having a lower profit margin compared to the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo Switch Lite.
TheMindOfThomas
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I wouldn't mind that at all, although I feel like most early adopters would just go for the premium model, creating more scarcity around it in comparison to the LCD version.
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If they’re citing increased component costs, would those increases not also impact the existing models, therefore not challenging the veracity Bloomberg’s statement? Same goes for shipping.
But that still says these new parts are a pretty substantial cost. If the original has a say $50 margin/17%, then the OLED would have cost them around $40 more to be sitting around that same %. No?
Edit:
I’m really just trying to understand the claim that they’d not use OLED to save on costs. The narrative at the time of the OLED launch was that OLED and LCD costs at this size were somewhat comparable, and that Nintendo could have scooped up a pretty good deal. It's kind of feeling like that might not have been true.
If they’re citing increased component costs, would those increases not also impact the existing models, therefore not challenging the veracity Bloomberg’s statement? Same goes for shipping.
But that still says these new parts are a pretty substantial cost. If the original has a say $50 margin/17%, then the OLED would have cost them around $40 more to be sitting around that same %. No?
Edit:
I’m really just trying to understand the claim that they’d not use OLED to save on costs. The narrative at the time of the OLED launch was that OLED and LCD costs at this size were somewhat comparable, and that Nintendo could have scooped up a pretty good deal. It's kind of feeling like that might not have been true.
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OP
OP
A top Sharp executive said that Sharp plans to provide Nintendo with IGZO displays according to a Wall Street Journal article on 7 August 2019.
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Tangentially, here's a research paper published in May 2020 that involves a 4inch, 92ppi microLED display being implemented with IGZO display technology: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9119705
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Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
OLED schmoled
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
The problem with Bloomberg’s statement is-that while yes those things do impact other models-implicating a 40$ profit per OLED sold. Effectively Bloomberg is telling investors to expect big profits for the company & those who have invested into Nintendo. You can see how that would be a problem if those profits turned out not to be as big as reported on.
Edit: Per your latest edit it is difficult to gauge why they would go back to LCD without first seeing the device throughly & Nintendo’s own financials/comments when the device comes out. They could have scooped up a good deal for Switch OLED. The entire device could be like an iPhone. The chip could be more expensive then thought. Perhaps OLED is the premium model for Nintendo. It’s honestly a wait & see type of thing.
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I understand why they’d want to speak up around this. That’s fair. But I also assume they’re telling the truth, or at least telling ‘a’ truth, perhaps one that’s incomplete.
For instance, do they include recovering R&D costs for the device over a period of time?
justanotherperson
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Using AI as the consoles gimmick is such a genius and Nintendo move, they would be able to do something different from the other consoles, with the recent buzz this decade about it, it would be easily marketeable AND would be SUPER cheap, because 1. it's integrated into the SoC, 2. has multiple uses (DLSS for exemple).
Catsylvania
Koopa
SchmoLED just sounds like a new emerging flat-planel display technology. Like it’s better than microLED except it currently cost $60,000 or something.
Shoulder
Koopa
That's just hilarious to me because I feel it's showing how the diminishing returns are coming in regarding hardware, Moore's Law slowing down, and then there's this on top of it all:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/evidence-shows-ai-driven-companies-are-buying-up-gaming-gpus
Get ready for another fun-fulfilled time of price gouging, and limited supply of hardware.
But seriously, I understand the PS4/Xbone are old systems (they're a decade old this year for Christ sakes), but still making games for it even makes me believe Switch 1 games will be in development well into 2-3 years AFTER Switch 2 launches.
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Other consoles even have noled. Can you imagine?
Giancarlo
Nintendo connoiseur
before, Nintendo know the demand for this games, and since Zelda release yearly,Twilight Princess/Wind Waker HD could be the Legend of Zelda games for 2024, unless Nintendo do a expansion pass/DLC for Tears of The Kingdom in two parts, one in early 2024 and the second part in holiday 2024/early 2025.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
I hope I get paid when some company steals my name.
Kazuyamishima
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Upscaling on those games would be pretty pointless
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
We don’t know since, for as much info as Nintendo gives, much like the rest of the industry they won’t give the full story unless asked by an investor & even then probably won’t. As I said earlier that was just an example they named for “increased component costs” so presumably there are ones they aren’t saying. I would imagine it is factored in but their method is ¯\(ツ)/¯.
This is very interesting.
Yeah, i think is very likely to see the two games porting to switch 2 by pannic button
MadMarvainy
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I mean sure, but the way people think online it's like OLED > every LCD ever made in human history, and that's not quite how it works.
My bold prediction is that the screen at launch will be more than suitable.
Ready for cross-gen haters to try and convince me that scalable games are a bad thing.
Dekuman
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I'm deeply skeptical of this. AI feels like 3D or HD rumble, something that will get a push at the start but may not live up to expectations. Not saying Nintendo won't do something like this, but it may just end up being a bullet point in a sales pitch and im not sure how much market share it will gain on AI.
The proof will be in the pudding and I think Nintendo should focus on showing gamers they can experience great 1st party games, plus have parity on 3rd party offerings.
Magic-Man
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This is exactly why Nintendo would do it. They have a track record with features that aren't used as much as they should. AI learning for first party titles would be nuts for certain games.
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The only BC they are going to have is a brand new sexy looking dock and they are gonna say you can dock your Switch 1 and Switch 2 in the same dock.
lol
Im so pumped!
lol
Im so pumped!
Kazuyamishima
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Of course it will be suitable why wouldn't it be? Once again I don't think anyone is arguing that LCD is not suitable and is completely trash it's just that it's weird to take a step backwards in terms of display technology on a successor
Dekuman
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Samsung went with 8GB LPDDR5X for their S23 this year, which is an upgrade from LPDDR5 in pripr phone models. I can see Nintendo splurging on RAM, but i feel like if they are going with LPDDR5X it may be limited to 8GB. Which could mean they will either put OS RAM on a separate slower module or just go with more but slower LPDDR5
As for cost cutting, there's logic to going with LCD over OLED. They can always add in OLED models later. It would be much more difficult to go with a double RAM variant later without it being a Pro model and splitting the userbase. I feel like they will go with the maximum amoun tof memory their budget will allow and I'm all in favour of going LCD if it means more RAM.
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Does anybody make 64 bit 4GB LPDDR5 modules?
justanotherperson
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What are the chances for Nintendo, when the NGS finally comes out, to make a refresh of the first gen Switch during its cross-gen period by using defective T239s (limiting them to 4 cores, 4GB RAM, maybe with an OLED screen, etc) that only plays semi-improved (1080p60/720p60) versions of Switch 1 titles and selling them for like $179 to extend the system's life a little bit further?
Hosermess
Koopa
Switch 1 and Switch 2 in the same dock? Pfffft...I want a Switch 1 and Switch 2 combined together in a portable grip. working in unison, not just as a second screen.
LiC
Member
This is almost an urban legend at this point. Very early (pre-2015) plans were supposedly lower -- I don't know where people get 2 GB from, that seems to just be made up -- and Capcom probably did give feedback on that. But by the time Nintendo had actually started developing the Nintendo Switch product that exists today (early 2015), they had already decided on 4 GB.
As you can see here, they had decided on 4 GB RAM at a time when they hadn't even arrived at the final number of 32 GB internal storage.
Something I feel people don't know/remember about the Capcom story is that it was something a Capcom representative informally said during a joint conference talk with Nintendo, where they were highlighting Nintendo's willingness to work with third parties and take feedback. The Capcom person said they had asked for the RAM to be at least 4 GB. Since the RAM was in fact 4 GB, it's a good example for the talk that flatters Nintendo. There is no evidence that Nintendo was going to go with some shockingly low RAM amount until Capcom stepped in and made them change their minds. It's just an anecdote from an early feedback process long before anything was set in stone.
NWeedle definitely takes the throw-everything-at-wall approach when it comes to rumormongering. IIRC quite some time ago I posted a message in this thread questioning his tweet about a Nintendo patent. He did, however, get a few things right occasionally. @necrolipe also independently confirmed the Spanish dev kit rumor. That was the reason I'm willing to entertain his "before summer" claim, in case that it came from the source of Spanish dev info.
By his on admission in that very report, Mochizuki based his high margin hypothesis solely on the cost increase from the rigid OLED panel and 32GB additional RAM. Yes, those two alone were not significant, but he either was negligent or ignorant of all the other changes made to the OLED model: newer chips, better Wi-Fi and Bluetooth antennae, built-in Ethernet, redesigned speakers, etc.
Furthermore, the rumor of OLED Switch using surplus panels intended for Audi was never corroborated. AFAIK, it exists only on social media, supported only by the "cheap Nintendo" meme without any hard evidence. In fact, the part number "AMS699VC01" indicated that the panel is custom made for Nintendo.
I agreed with you that whether the OLED model is actually less profitable may hinge on how they do the accounting. That said, the company's gross profit margin indeed has eroded as the OLED model gaining its percentage share of the hardware sales, as noted in the earning releases. These are legal financial documents, and I doubt it being untrue.
Back to your original point of the LCD panel not meaningfully cheaper than the OLED, I'm also in agreement therefore a little skeptical of that aspect of the VGC report. If Nintendo actually opts for an LCD display for the Switch NG, they probably have reasons other than the cost.
vapour_trail
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The screens oled used are 720p and 60fps. I am not versed on asus rog screen tech, but do those have higher refresh rates and vrr tech. Those I do believe are cheaper for lcd. But yes oled panels are getting cheaper but still not anywhere as cheap as lcd. Also I think nintendo got a deal on their oleds. Maybe older overstock from Samsung or something not sure.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
There is little point for Nintendo to do this unless that is effectively replacing the entirety of the OG Switch’s product line & even then I don’t think it would be worth it. If the margins for Lite & OLED were thin then this probably runs in the red.
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