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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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With Super Mario Wonder being announced for October I think it is pretty much set in stone the new console won't hit before 2024.
I'd be happy to be disproved but SMW is an extremely popular game that is well suited as a mid or late lifecycle release, it's not a showcase title for a new console. This means any showcase title they could have possibily been planning would directly compete with it and it just doesn't make much sense.
Additionally if their plan was to release in fall 2023 all along I don't see why the wouldn't have postponed ToTK just a few months, that would have been a perfect cross-gen launch title.
 
Cybergatuno said:
Agreed. A successor is needed sooner or later.

Twitter and Fami will break when this think is announced.
If they have good launch titles and follow-ups, I suspect it's gonna take years before they can keep up with demand.

But NG will have significant exclusives that represent a huge investment. Those games will release on an install base close to zero and some could takes years to make a profit.
They earned the right to milk the soon to be 150M+ install base for a little longer, to cushion that investment.

On the other hand, if NG is powerful enough to get prominent ports, such as Elden Ring, RDR2, CoD, FIFA, etc, Nintendo could go the Sony way, just sit back and collect 30% on everything. (While also releasing cash-grabs that sell 5M in an instant).
The more they wait, the more money they leave on the table.
I have a list of 15-20 reasonable ports I would get for sure.
Click to expand...
something tell me Nintendo will only anounce/launch Switch sucessor ounce the Switch surpass the PS2 total lifetime sales(they come so close to archive this with DS, think of the potential here Nintendo sucessor of the best selling hardware of all time).
 
Bait02 said:
With Super Mario Wonder being announced for October I think it is pretty much set in stone the new console won't hit before 2024.
I'd be happy to be disproved but SMW is an extremely popular game that is well suited as a mid or late lifecycle release, it's not a showcase title for a new console. This means any showcase title they could have possibily been planning would directly compete with it and it just doesn't make much sense.
Additionally if their plan was to release in fall 2023 all along I don't see why the wouldn't have postponed ToTK just a few months, that would have been a perfect cross-gen launch title.
Click to expand...
Tears of the Kingdom was content complete in 2022, Nintendo delayed the game to spring 2023, so that they could polish the game.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Hm, doing rough math, if the 8 cores are clocked to 1.85GHz and the GPU is clocked to 550MHz, I think the SoC itself would consume ~6W? Roughly speaking on 4nm?

If it’s 1.5GHz for the CPU it would be ~5W.


If we want to be bold😘, if the CPU is clocked to 2.12GHz, the SoC would consume ~7W


I think…????


RAM has to be accounted for, so does the screen, so does the Wi-Fi, so does Bluetooth, so do sensors, fans, etc. yes that includes Storage.

But idk any of that for the current switch lol.


I think 6W is a good number.
Click to expand...
3/4W for the GPU and 3/2W for CPU is a good sweet spot, yeah. 6W for the SoC and 2W for everything else on a 20WHr battery should yield 2:30 hours of battery life on the worst-case scenario.
 
seems like the ROG Ally has difficulty hitting 60fps in Fortnite at 626p with Lumen on and at 40W. it gets close so maybe turning all the other settings to low would help, but 40W? woof

 
ILikeFeet said:
seems like the ROG Ally has difficulty hitting 60fps in Fortnite at 626p with Lumen on and at 40W. it gets close so maybe turning all the other settings to low would help, but 40W? woof

Click to expand...


Teacher to Link: "Bring me proof why custom-tailored games are better when hardware is limited!"
 
Bait02 said:
With Super Mario Wonder being announced for October I think it is pretty much set in stone the new console won't hit before 2024.
I'd be happy to be disproved but SMW is an extremely popular game that is well suited as a mid or late lifecycle release, it's not a showcase title for a new console. This means any showcase title they could have possibily been planning would directly compete with it and it just doesn't make much sense.
Additionally if their plan was to release in fall 2023 all along I don't see why the wouldn't have postponed ToTK just a few months, that would have been a perfect cross-gen launch title.
Click to expand...
TotK could have been an early/mid 2023 launch title IF plans were indeed delayed.
They 100% have a few titles in mind for a successful launch. We just don't know about them.

Totk is on its way to sell 20M+ by the end of the year, brought BotW back to the charts and it reinvigorated hardware sales making Nintendo huge profits.
I'd say their plan is going pretty well.


Giancarlo said:
something tell me Nintendo will only anounce/launch Switch sucessor ounce the Switch surpass the PS2 total lifetime sales(they come so close to archive this with DS, think of the potential here Nintendo sucessor of the best selling hardware of all time).
Click to expand...
Only fanboys care about the honorable title of the most successful console.
A business like Nintendo will try to maximize mid/long-term revenue, regardless of records.
If I was an investor, I'd oust the whole board if they botched a console transition because of a useless title.
 
Stefan51278 said:
Teacher to Link: "Bring me proof why custom-tailored games are better when hardware is limited!"
Click to expand...
don't even have to do that. other apus show better performance so this is probably a driver issue.

also, so many of these benchmark channels are cowards. why is it so hard to test how lumen runs on these things
 
So Nintendo is ending the extended Switch warranty in Japan soon. August I think. I think no later than July 14th for memberships or whatever. Just watched the news on Spawn Wave's.

Is this in preparation for Switch 2 I wonder?

ワイドケア for Nintendo Switch | 任天堂販売株式会社ホームページ

「ワイドケア for Nintendo Switch」新規加入受付および契約更新終了のお知らせ
www.nintendo-sales.co.jp
 
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Bait02 said:
With Super Mario Wonder being announced for October I think it is pretty much set in stone the new console won't hit before 2024.
I'd be happy to be disproved but SMW is an extremely popular game that is well suited as a mid or late lifecycle release, it's not a showcase title for a new console. This means any showcase title they could have possibily been planning would directly compete with it and it just doesn't make much sense.
Additionally if their plan was to release in fall 2023 all along I don't see why the wouldn't have postponed ToTK just a few months, that would have been a perfect cross-gen launch title.
Click to expand...
I don't think mario wonder releasing in October is any indicative as we don't really know how Nintendo will transition and set BC for the new console (for example, PS5 and Miles Morales releases). However, as far as hints and signs goes, there is no indication an end of the year SwitchU will happen.

edit for clarity
 
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TLZ said:
So Nintendo is ending the extended Switch warranty in Japan soon. August I think. I think no later than July 14th for memberships or whatever. Just watched the news on Spawn Wave's.

Is this in preparation for Switch 2 I wonder?

ワイドケア for Nintendo Switch | 任天堂販売株式会社ホームページ

「ワイドケア for Nintendo Switch」新規加入受付および契約更新終了のお知らせ
www.nintendo-sales.co.jp
Click to expand...
Sounds like it. Though if I may be so bold, it sounds like the sort of thing you'd do just before next generation goes on sale. The fact there's a possibility pre-orders start next week is. Fascinating.
 
jzero said:
I don't think mario wonder releasing in October is any indicative as to how Nintendo will transition and set BC for the new console (for example, PS5 and Miles Morales releases). However, as far as hints and signs goes, there is no indication an end of the year SwitchU will happen.
Click to expand...
That... Is. Uh, well, untrue, isn't it?

Nintendo aims to launch consoles 18 months after tapeout. T239's 18 month limit is this Autumn.
 
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casualreader said:
I'd love to see this thing released in 2023 too. One thing though: if the console were to be presented (or just announced) in two weeks, would we not already know ?
And by that, I mean usually, with the oled and lite, how early did the people in the know hear something ? Like are we talking days, weeks or months ?
From what I hear here it seems like it does not need to be announced in July, you just need leaks (we may be at the start of that period, culminating in September) which would indicate presentation a few weeks/months after, and a release a few months after that (Q124 a la switch ?).Would line up with the claims here that strong leaks occur after the summer, and the pkmn thing of patches to be released - assuming it s legit.
Maybe there is something this summer, but can it not be a last low cost reduced size model like they do at the end every handehld generation ?
Click to expand...

www.google.com

Report: New Switch hardware coming in 2019

Nintendo’s next version of the Switch could have an updated screen
www.google.com www.google.com

There was significant knowledge of both devices months and months ahead of announcement and launch. The finer details may have been hidden or incorrect, but ultimately it was widely known when hardware was coming, the expected production, etc.
 
Giancarlo said:
Tears of the Kingdom was content complete in 2022, Nintendo delayed the game to spring 2023, so that they could polish the game.
Click to expand...
Why not polish it more with proper 4K textures and attract many to move directly to Switch 2 on release date? Zelda is just a much better console mover as a Mario game, which "could run on my phone".
Giancarlo said:
something tell me Nintendo will only anounce/launch Switch sucessor ounce the Switch surpass the PS2 total lifetime sales(they come so close to archive this with DS, think of the potential here Nintendo sucessor of the best selling hardware of all time).
Click to expand...
If they would be really after it, they had rather reduced the price of the Switch by at least 50USD. An OLED for 250Euro would sell like hot cake and they would be easily filling the 30M gap. I doubt it is feasible with the current pricing. Please keep in mind that Sony likely sold around 35M PS2 AFTER 2007. These weren't sold for 300, but 100 at best.

Edit:
Price reduction to $99
Eligible 9.9M sales in 2010/2011
PS2 was basically kept alive by sport games, what does Switch have to extend life?
 
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I was looking at the chart that has been posted in the thread several times about the power consumption of the A57:

A57-power-curve.png

And the part everyone mostly focused on was that 4 A57 at ~1GHz seem to correspond to 1.83W.

However, I hadn’t paid attention to the other lines of the graph until now in closer inspection.

A single A57 @ 1GHz would consume 0.59W according to this graph, right?

2 A57 @ 1GHz would consume 0.95W

3 A57 @ 1GHz would consume 1.4W


I never bothered to inspect it that, the 2 core model does not consume double what the single core consumes, it consumes 80% of that.

3 cores do not consume 1.77W, but 1.4W which is 79% of the linear.

4 cores would be 77%.

So, while as per ARM, an A78 @ 3GHz consumes 1W, 8 A78 @ 3GHz doesn’t necessarily consume 8W!

It would or should consume less! Possibly because there are more cores to share the work and thus taking the load off of a core, or possibly due to other factors we don’t know.

But A78 would probably do 6-7W, not 8! This doesn’t seem like much, but this can mean a lot when put into context.



Let’s say the the comparison above from before, in a previous post where I gave estimates with 5, 6 and 7W ranges.


These were based on the projections of a single core applied to 8 cores based, not the projection of 8 cores as a whole.

The trend is that more cores = less power consumed per core even if the whole set up does consume more power.


1 core at 2.13GHz (same as the PS4 Pro) would consume about ~0.5W, 8 at the same speed would on paper consume 8 times that right? But as I mentioned, it seems to trend to more cores means it’s more efficient per core.


Rather than consume ~4W in this case, it would theoretically consume ~3W! Due to the reason I shared above. So, it’s possible that they have more wiggle room to work with than we think.


And as you saw, at lower speeds for the A57, with more cores, the more disparity in the percentage between what is reported, and what is expected by multiplying by the number of cores. Again, likely due to better management due to more cores present that in all, makes it more efficient.


ARM is efficient, yes.
 
invwar said:
Why not polish it more with proper 4K textures and attract many to move directly to Switch 2 on release date? Zelda is just a much better console mover as a Mario game, which "could run on my phone".
Click to expand...
would that get them significantly higher than the 10M in 3 days they got now? probably not
 
P4bl0 said:
How would that work ?

Reveal in January Presentation in March and launch in May July ?

Why would Nintendo not launch their new console in time for holiday sales? That would be stoopid from their end
Click to expand...
Why not Tears of the Kingdom for holiday 2022? Why not Switch for late 2016? Why film a movie when you can just get the instant cassette before the movie is finished?
 
P4bl0 said:
How would that work ?

Reveal in January Presentation in March and launch in May July ?

Why would Nintendo not launch their new console in time for holiday sales? That would be stoopid from their end
Click to expand...
Mario wonder and Mario RPG should be enough for the holiday. Maybe they just want to time their console launch with the development of games so that there is a consistent flow of software in the pipeline? It isn't just about maximising revenue, a console launch will have a roadmap.
 
0
Cybergatuno said:
TotK could have been an early/mid 2023 launch title IF plans were indeed delayed.
They 100% have a few titles in mind for a successful launch. We just don't know about them.

Totk is on its way to sell 20M+ by the end of the year, brought BotW back to the charts and it reinvigorated hardware sales making Nintendo huge profits.
I'd say their plan is going pretty well.
Click to expand...
Yes, I'm not implying they did any mistakes. I'm rather implying that the fact they have just released a title as big as Totk without any official mention of the new console, implicitly signals it won't be released in the near immediate future.
  • Totk is their flagship title for the first part of the year
  • SMW is their flaghship for the later part of the year.
  • The next flagship title (potentially on the new console) will be in the subsequent year or semester.
 
TLZ said:
So Nintendo is ending the extended Switch warranty in Japan soon. August I think. I think no later than July 14th for memberships or whatever. Just watched the news on Spawn Wave's.

Is this in preparation for Switch 2 I wonder?
Click to expand...
DeepL caveats apply, but assuming that they're still taking annual subscriptions through August, then they're committing to full Switch repairs through August 2024.

The driver of these programs shutting down in consumer electronics is almost always the lack of spare parts. There are multiple bits in the Switch that either aren't manufactured anymore - the Wifi/BT chip - or are getting more expensive not less - the "legacy" LPDDR4. Whatever pool of parts Nintendo is using is shared between manufacturing and repairs, and in an ideal world you coast to the end of the system lifecycle with just enough parts remaining to clear your contractual support obligations.

I'd say it's obvious Nintendo is planning on launch a new console - they simply can't keep making Switches for much longer without a (fourth!) motherboard redesign, and this ending of the repair program is waving that flag. But I also don't think we can infer timing from it.
 
Aether said:
With sakurai again mentioning, that he would like to play Kid Icarus on a big screen, but that it would be hard to do without a team... im getting confident that thats his next project, either a port or a sequel for Switch (2).
I also expect it to be announced somewhen when his [Game concepts] category is done (he talks chronologically about his releases, next is Smash 4... so 2 more to go)
Click to expand...
Maybe a sequel for Switch 2 and 3DS HD Remaster shadow drop close to its release. I know Lugii’s Mansion 2 is coming to Switch, but maybe 3DS HD Remssters will be reserved for the Switch 2. That console has a big library enough to help Nintendo space out software releases
 
1080p still looks decent for me on my 4K OLED so even getting games at that resolution will feel like a great upgrade over most Switch games. I played Mario Kart 8D the other day on the TV and was really happy with how the image looked.

Obviously 1440p+ would be even better but 1080p on the TV is still so much better than what so many Switch games put out. I played Journey on my PS4 recently as well and that looked fantastic despite never receiving a Pro upgrade.
 
YolkFolk said:
1080p still looks decent for me on my 4K OLED so even getting games at that resolution will feel like a great upgrade over most Switch games. I played Mario Kart 8D the other day on the TV and was really happy with how the image looked.

Obviously 1440p+ would be even better but 1080p on the TV is still so much better than what so many Switch games put out. I played Journey on my PS4 recently as well and that looked fantastic despite never receiving a Pro upgrade.
Click to expand...
1080p after DLSS is something I expect from third parties. I figure all but the rare exceptions will be over 1080p (like heavy first party game or third-party-made game)
 
TLZ said:
So Nintendo is ending the extended Switch warranty in Japan soon. August I think. I think no later than July 14th for memberships or whatever. Just watched the news on Spawn Wave's.

Is this in preparation for Switch 2 I wonder?

ワイドケア for Nintendo Switch | 任天堂販売株式会社ホームページ

「ワイドケア for Nintendo Switch」新規加入受付および契約更新終了のお知らせ
www.nintendo-sales.co.jp
Click to expand...

Google is failing me, when did they end the extended warranty for the Wii U?
 
YolkFolk said:
1080p still looks decent for me on my 4K OLED so even getting games at that resolution will feel like a great upgrade over most Switch games. I played Mario Kart 8D the other day on the TV and was really happy with how the image looked.

Obviously 1440p+ would be even better but 1080p on the TV is still so much better than what so many Switch games put out. I played Journey on my PS4 recently as well and that looked fantastic despite never receiving a Pro upgrade.
Click to expand...
i have seen my brother play cyberpunk with a series S on a 65" tv, he plays at performance mode which i believe is 900p, the game still looks fantastic.
1080p with good looking graphics are more than enough for a good console experience
 
ziggyrivers said:
I know Lugii’s Mansion 2 is coming to Switch, but maybe 3DS HD Remssters will be reserved for the Switch 2. That console has a big library enough to help Nintendo space out software releases
Click to expand...
They'd have to put a pretty damn thick layer of remaster onto any 3DS game to make it infeasible on base Switch, I'd think. These games would be going through much bigger changes than, say, Ocarina of Time N64->3DS. But 3DS->Switch ports would be perfect for having continued Switch content in its waning years.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
They'd have to put a pretty damn thick layer of remaster onto any 3DS game to make it infeasible on base Switch, I'd think. These games would be going through much bigger changes than, say, Ocarina of Time N64->3DS. But 3DS->Switch ports would be perfect for having continued Switch content in its waning years.
Click to expand...
I can't say I agree. Many 3DS games still look good and mainly suffer from the system's resolution. Several 3DS games have made their way to Switch, some remakes like Miitopia, some remasters like Monster Hunter's XX. Meanwhile, GameCube games like Pikmin1+2 with the most minor of remasters are extremely popular.

I really don't think people who have, hold on to, and will continue to use their Switch for the next couple years, really care all too much about graphics that look "good" by modern standards like Pikmin 4, and just want fun games on the go they can also play on the TV.
 
PkStarstorm said:
i have seen my brother play cyberpunk with a series S on a 65" tv, he plays at performance mode which i believe is 900p, the game still looks fantastic.
1080p with good looking graphics are more than enough for a good console experience
Click to expand...
While true, DLSS is a little more nuanced than that. Generally a game is better off targeting a lower internal resolution if it means bringing the output resolution up. I think most Drake games will be 4K at the output, but with degraded image quality. 720p DLSS to 4K is... Very doable, and very efficient. Really, it's the performance level I expect MOST Drake games to target.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
snip
Click to expand...
Its multiple cores, but its one processor. It has elements that are shared between the cores that also need power, so thats the reason it scales not "x times corecount".

Even with the curve, there is also a variance in how efficient the cores really are. Just look at PC cores and how overclockers are searching for the "perfect" core. i assume those variances will be lower on SOCs installed in consoles, but i assume they wont try to push it to the theoretical maximum, since it would mean a good chung of CPUs would overheat. I assume they will try to get 95% to be below the maximum power ceiling, meaning on average they will aim slightly under the maximum.

So probably somewhat above where you expect it. (if im wrong please correct me)
 
Vanillalite said:
Roughly 3-5x depending.

It’s not a 1:1 comparison though and the Switch is obviously a much more modern console than the PS3/360. The same will be said the Switch 2 compared to the PS4/Bone in terms of modern feature sets.
Click to expand...

A 4x leap seems extremely modest to project unless mobile hardware development has just completely stalled out, not sure why Digital Foundry are so skeptical of it reaching PS4 level then.

Most leaps are like 6x?
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
A 4x leap seems extremely modest to project unless mobile hardware development has just completely stalled out, not sure why Digital Foundry are so skeptical of it reaching PS4 level then.

Most leaps are like 6x?
Click to expand...
Because doing the 4x or 3x or 6x thing is kind of a dumb antiquated way to look at any of this anymore.
 
Concernt said:
I can't say I agree. Many 3DS games still look good and mainly suffer from the system's resolution. Several 3DS games have made their way to Switch, some remakes like Miitopia, some remasters like Monster Hunter's XX. Meanwhile, GameCube games like Pikmin1+2 with the most minor of remasters are extremely popular.

I really don't think people who have, hold on to, and will continue to use their Switch for the next couple years, really care all too much about graphics that look "good" by modern standards like Pikmin 4, and just want fun games on the go they can also play on the TV.
Click to expand...
I don't think we disagree then? I think the status quo of 3DS->Switch games is pretty fine. Ports and remasters are generally there to get a decent new release for less effort, and changing them enough to justify being Switch 2-only would go against that on top of limiting their market.
YolkFolk said:
1080p still looks decent for me on my 4K OLED so even getting games at that resolution will feel like a great upgrade over most Switch games. I played Mario Kart 8D the other day on the TV and was really happy with how the image looked.
Click to expand...
PkStarstorm said:
i have seen my brother play cyberpunk with a series S on a 65" tv, he plays at performance mode which i believe is 900p, the game still looks fantastic.
1080p with good looking graphics are more than enough for a good console experience
Click to expand...
I'm sure it differs from set to set, but on mine I find 1080p very obvious unless letting the TV go wild with smoothing settings.
 
Aether said:
Its multiple cores, but its one processor. It has elements that are shared between the cores that also need power, so thats the reason it scales not "x times corecount".

Even with the curve, there is also a variance in how efficient the cores really are. Just look at PC cores and how overclockers are searching for the "perfect" core. i assume those variances will be lower on SOCs installed in consoles, but i assume they wont try to push it to the theoretical maximum, since it would mean a good chung of CPUs would overheat. I assume they will try to get 95% to be below the maximum power ceiling, meaning on average they will aim slightly under the maximum.
Click to expand...
Just to be clear, are you referring to PC here or to mobile SOCs here?

Most mobile SOCs are rated for 6-9W even under heavy load.
Aether said:
So probably somewhat above where you expect it. (if im wrong please correct me)
Click to expand...
Again, to be clear, are you saying they’ll end up above where I expect? Or that PC ends up falling above what the theoretical expectation is? 😅

Sorry, I just want to be clear.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
How much more powerful than the Switch is the PS4 (obviously this is an extremely hard thing to estimate)
Click to expand...
Difficult yes.

So we will just go by the paper numbers:

GPU docked? PS4 is ~4.7x the switch.

GPU handheld? Lowest clocks gives you ~11x, the middle clock gives you ~9.4x, portable highest clocks gives you ~7.8x the performance.

GPU cores? 256 cores vs 1152, so a 4.5x core count there.

SM vs CU count? 2 vs 18, so 9x there.

Memory Bandwidth? Docked it has ~7x the bandWidth, portable bandwidth? About ~8.3x the portable bandwidth.



CPU? Well it’s over twice the available cores (6.5) and it’s clocked 60% higher (1.6GHz), so ~3.4x.


I’m not bothering with IPC, with mixed precision, with DCC, etc because that is not linear, it varies and it’s depending on the game, etc, and not worth the time to explain in-depth. So I’ll just go by the paper numbers.

Oh and the PS4 has about 60% more available memory for games.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
A 4x leap seems extremely modest to project unless mobile hardware development has just completely stalled out, not sure why Digital Foundry are so skeptical of it reaching PS4 level then.

Most leaps are like 6
Click to expand...
There is some nuance to what DF is saying, but it comes down to power consumption.

The short version is that the the whole industry has stalled out, or at least substantially slowed down for a long time now. That's been somewhat hidden from consumers by various clever tricks and shell games, one of which has been to increase power consumption.

What Rich says in the last video is that he expects that it's totally possible to get PS4 or better experiences on NuSwitch, but that doesn't mean he expects raw performance to match up. Ampere is a far more advanced and modern GPU architecture than the GCN that the PS4 used, and ports that take advantage of it will be in excellent shape, even if the perf is not quite spot on.

The blind spot that DF has - and it's not surprising considering their remit - is the extreme efficiency differential between ARM and x86. I think they're underestimating the wiggle room there. But if you hang around in DF forums, you'll see that a lot of their fans do this dance where the Steam Deck = PS4, so Nintendo's next console must equal Steam Deck in performance, but add DLSS... and very quickly leave the realm of reality. Those are the folks that Rich and DF are talking to.
 
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