StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Pokemaniac]

Probably a dumb as hell question, but I don't recall anybody asking it sooooo... (I'm sure it came up at some point, but anyways) With all of the talk of BC (improving base switch games dyn. res. and framerates) are battery gains a thing we can expect from last-gen titles played on the succ? Or it doesn't work like that?

Short answer: it depends

Longer answer: Historically BC modes have frequently involved downclocking and turning some hardware off, so there would generally be clear gains in battery life, but that was with a primarily hardware driven approach. With software driven BC, there are certain knobs available to Nintendo which can and probably will lead to some minor power savings in some cases, but probably not across the board. Lowering clocks is something that may be done for compatibility, but probably not for every game. Similarly, parking unused cores could help save some power, but only if the system doesn't need those for emulation.

 

[mjayer]

Maybe that's what they want internally ? Huge hype frenzy, not many games at launch while Switch 1 still has games, kinda like PS4 and PS5, allows them for a smooth transition

You know this isn't crazy thinking tbf. They know the hardcore are going to scoop up the new console no matter what. That's probably 5-10 million units out the gate. If it launches late this year they won't need a "killer app" to move units until sometime in 2024. Maybe there won't even be an 1st party exclusive till the end of 2024 or later and it'll live off of just being the best way to play the cross gen games for the first year or more.

This gives Nintendo plenty of runway to sell the most software on the Switch "platform" as the base for S2 builds up to ready it to sell a lot of exclusive software when that day comes.

Even if they launch day and date with exclusives the fact is they don't need a lot of software for the first 6 months or more of the system for it to be selling out and doing well.

 

[P4bl0]

You know this isn't crazy thinking tbf. They know the hardcore are going to scoop up the new console no matter what. That's probably 5-10 million units out the gate. If it launches late this year they won't need a "killer app" to move units until sometime in 2024. Maybe there won't even be an 1st party exclusive till the end of 2024 or later and it'll live off of just being the best way to play the cross gen games for the first year or more.

This gives Nintendo plenty of runway to sell the most software on the Switch "platform" as the base for S2 builds up to ready it to sell a lot of exclusive software when that day comes.

Even if they launch day and date with exclusives the fact is they don't need a lot of software for the first 6 months or more of the system for it to be selling out and doing well.

Yes this is exactly how I'm seeing things unfold, though I think they will have at least one launch game AA or AAA, and proper line up in 2024

All the scenarios of H2 2024, 2025 launch would imply that the Switch 1 would be dead at the ng launch and I don't see this happening.

I don't see them going all in on the launch of Switch 2, I think it will take a year or two to build solid install base before slowly ditching Switch 1

 

[ILikeFeet]

Like employees stealing units?

aye. trying for 20M units day one means you have to stockpile for a long time. units will go missing and websites/youtube channels will pay premium for them

 

[ngpdrew]

Yes this is exactly how I'm seeing things unfold, though I think they will have at least one launch game AA or AAA, and proper line up in 2024

All the scenarios of H2 2024, 2025 launch would imply that the Switch 1 would be dead at the ng launch and I don't see this happening.

I don't see them going all in on the launch of Switch 2, I think it will take a year or two to build solid install base before slowly ditching Switch 1

Nintendo is not going to release new hardware without at least one piece of compelling software. This has only ever been a bad thing for them (3DS says hello!).

 

[Deleted member 887]

Unnecessary post tbh. Do you even know what games I want to play to say that?

It was intended as a gentle tease about the Rog Ally, not about you. But my apologies.

 

[P4bl0]

Nintendo is not going to release new hardware without at least one piece of compelling software. This has only ever been a bad thing for them (3DS says hello!).

Yeah that's what I'm saying ?

 

[ngpdrew]

Yeah that's what I'm saying ?

I quoted the wrong person.

That said, they aren’t going to launch without a “proper lineup” either. It makes no sense to put the cart before the horse when you have a bonafide system seller for the old hardware already coming out in October.

 

[NintendoMariah]

I am so pumped for another era!!!
my god

 

[P4bl0]

I quoted the wrong person.

That said, they aren’t going to launch without a “proper lineup” either. It makes no sense to put the cart before the horse when you have a bonafide system seller for the old hardware already coming out in October.

It does make sense when you still have old hardware to sell and a huge install base to transit and upsell, Nintendo said the transition would be smooth, a huge line up of games on Switch 2 launch would not be a fit

 

[ngpdrew]

It does make sense when you still have old hardware to sell and a huge install base to transit and upsell, Nintendo said the transition would be smooth, a huge line up of games on Switch 2 launch would not be a fit

Smoothness was more in reference to making sure things like accounts and digital services make the transition. They won’t give a shit about Switch 1 once the successor is in the wild, marginal releases aside.

 

[Kise Ryota]

It was intended as a gentle tease about the Rog Ally, not about you. But my apologies.

Maybe I miss understood it, but that second line - at least for me - just made the whole post like "if you want a product like this one, just go get it. We don't need that here", or something like this. I mean:

A 1.5 pound machine with 90 minutes of battery life that costs $700 is fundamentally not compatible with "average Pokemon player."

What does it even mean? Why would you say that just because I talked about a thicker form factor, a 40Wh battery and a small increase (compared with switch v1) in system power draw?

Were you implying that a 40Wh battery and a better cooling solution would automatically make it to cost $700? We all know that ASUS has to make all their profit from the hardware only (and that isn't going to sell not even remotely close to whatever Nintendo releases)

Well, it was a tough day for me. Sorry if I read it in a salt way.

 

[P4bl0]

Smoothness was more in reference to making sure things like accounts and digital services make the transition. They won’t give a shit about Switch 1 once the successor is in the wild, marginal releases aside.

So you really think they going to sleep and give up on a 130m install base ?

 

[mjayer]

I quoted the wrong person.

That said, they aren’t going to launch without a “proper lineup” either. It makes no sense to put the cart before the horse when you have a bonafide system seller for the old hardware already coming out in October.

Oh I think they'll show off Switch Exclusive titles... there will be a proper plan for a steady stream of releases and plenty of hype trains to jump on. I do believe there will be one BIG title for launch day.. but they just don't need much more than that for it to sell out for some time. So they can have a super hype reel of future titles but release them slowly.

 

[D36]

aye. trying for 20M units day one means you have to stockpile for a long time. units will go missing and websites/youtube channels will pay premium for them

That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, lmao!

 

[P4bl0]

aye. trying for 20M units day one means you have to stockpile for a long time. units will go missing and websites/youtube channels will pay premium for them

Not gonna sell 20M units in one day,

10-20m first year

 

[ILikeFeet]

Not gonna sell 20M units in one day,

10-20m first year

it's a hypothetical

 

[Terrell]

I'm guessing the Switch 2 uses pretty much the same capacity battery and has the same power draw as the original model of the Switch 1.

People can calculate out what the clocks would be for the Switch 2 assuming it uses T239 on TSMC 5nm+ and must not exceed the power draw of the original model of the Switch 1.

Then we can compare that to the Switch 1 and PS4 and PS5.

When I went back and looked for this quote, I found this assumption of yours was already previously addressed back in March. Let me quote myself again…

battery density roughly improves at least 5% over the prior year. And this is compounded interest, so a battery of the same size and similar price as Switch’s 4310mAh battery would be able to achieve something close to 5775mAh 6 years later. I’d think a 1465mAh (or 33%) improvement without any change in size and little change in cost is a pretty good change in density.

Unless Nintendo opts to use the exact same battery they used in 2017 again, there’s around 30% more headroom for performance changes at the same battery life, at least. Depending on when the battery they use is finalized, ~6064mAh is now also possible, which would be a ~40% increase in capacity with minimal to no change in price or physical dimensions.
I don’t expect Nintendo to utilize all of that for additional performance from the SoC, but it at least gives them room to consider it.

 

[Dekuman]

When I went back and looked for this quote, I found this assumption of yours was already previously addressed back in March. Let me quote myself again…

Unless Nintendo opts to use the exact same battery they used in 2017 again, there’s around 30% more headroom for performance changes at the same battery life, at least. Depending on when the battery they use is finalized, ~6064mAh is now also possible, which would be a ~40% increase in capacity with minimal to no change in price or physical dimensions.
I don’t expect Nintendo to utilize all of that for additional performance from the SoC, but it at least gives them room to consider it.

if they go with the exact same Switch battery, it would break with prior hardware upgrades. i think every Nintendo portable since they switched to lithium ion packs has seen a battery upgrade in capacity.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I would like if they use a 40Wh battery with a system power draw of 13W in handheld. Like I said other day, I don't mind a 650g handheld that has great ergonomics. It can be THICC, so they can manage better the cooling system and also fit that battery with no problem.

I was doing some rough estimates, but I’m having a hard time seeing why 13W, if the sweet spot is 3-7W for the SoC.

Speaking of, a battery of 5500mAh is roughly the size of a battery that is 4310mAh in 2017.

So assuming Nintendo stayed with the original switch consumption but moved to this new higher density battery, and using the power consumption above, assuming they stay at the same voltage (3.7V for the OG I think) the device can have a battery life similar to the Switch Lite of 3 to 7 hours, have a 20.35Wh capacity and occupy roughly a similar space.


Give or take. Some games exceed this but others (most) don’t. You’d have a better battery life than the original.

 

[Kise Ryota]

I was doing some rough estimates, but I’m having a hard time seeing why 13W, if the sweet spot is 3-7W for the SoC.

My thought was on the 3h of battery life, that's why 13w. How do we know the sweet spot of the SoC?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

My thought was on the 3h of battery life, that's why 13w. How do we know the sweet spot of the SoC?

It’s based on the bare min of the power consumption and same V, because if it’s more then you’d need a larger battery and it would occupy more space than the 4310mAh battery. Unless Nintendo changes the form factor in a way (makes it larger) this is the sweet spot for it. 5500mAh is roughly like 4310mAh of 2017.

But keeps a similar draw of the OG switch while delivering a better battery life.

 

[Cybergatuno]

They gave specific reasons as to why they’re not gonna lower the price. If it was a more general answer, I’d be on the boat that says that a price cut could come this Fiscal Year. But since it was a very detailed question, I doubt we’ll see a cut

I wouldn't give too much credit to their "no price cut" answer.

They wouldn't out right say "there will be a price cut" or a lot of possible customers would just wait for it, and NG speculation would ramp even more.
They could still do a price cut and justify it with "We had no plans back then, but we adjusted our strategy according to market conditions".

I don't believe they'll do a price cut this fiscal year, mostly because I don't expect a NG announcement.

 

[carbonaxiom]

Nintendo is not going to release new hardware without at least one piece of compelling software. This has only ever been a bad thing for them (3DS says hello!).

That said, they aren’t going to launch without a “proper lineup” either. It makes no sense to put the cart before the horse when you have a bonafide system seller for the old hardware already coming out in October.

The argument that Nintendo doesn't strictly need new software for a hardware launch is one that comes with specific context.

There's an oft-cited chart about how Sony's transition from PlayStation 4 to PlayStation 5 was the first time the company managed to avoid an operating loss for a new home console's first year since they entered the video game business:



Because of the substantial increase in users for console subscription services, and the resulting heavily-extended shelf life of older games, it's possible that traditional rules about launch lineups no longer apply. In Nintendo's case, this would mean that they plan to launch the console with mostly (or even entirely) cross-generation games, and then slowly transition towards the new console exclusives over the following months and years. This is where Nintendo's emphasis on having a smooth transition for accounts and digital services comes into play.

In this scenario, the primary buyers of the new device for its first few months would be people who want to play older Nintendo games with higher resolutions and frame rates, while most others would continue to buy older Switches at the same steadily declining pace that existed before launch.

This is actually the implicit position that anyone expecting a 2023 or Q1 (January to March) 2024 launch has had for a long time, which is why most recent pieces of information, like the Q&A sessions at the investor meetings and the video games announced at the June Direct, have done little to dissuade anyone who thinks an announcement might be coming soon.

Of course, it's easy to reasonably disagree with this position. One counterargument is that, unlike with Sony, there aren't enough people willing to buy the new console just for older upscaled Nintendo games. If Nintendo is indeed waiting for a better launch lineup because of this, then the wait is very likely for the second half of 2024, at least, given current information.

 

[grobla123]

Switch is the best selling console after the PS2...the scalp potential of Redraketed is honestly huge. And with the extra family and casual audience appeal I could see it hit the news and create a self-fulfilling FOMO rush. The boxes will probably be smaller and easy to move than PS5 too. Twitter being twitter you might not get Wario64 info. I doubt Nintendo will have a good solution outside of pressuring retailers to limit sales to 1 per customer. Luckily I believe Australia had less issues with console launch supply to demand numbers, so I may not be hit as bad.

 

[Kise Ryota]

Unless Nintendo changes the form factor in a way (makes it larger) this is the sweet spot for it.

Gotcha. I thought It would be something related to efficiency of the SoC.

Yeah, that's why I said I don't mind a thicker form factor. Bigger battery, more juice coming from that SoC. Because I would really like the CPU at 1.8GHz to 2GHz, and if they can get those 2TF on handheld... that would be nice too. But we have no idea about node or how much of a difference it would be coming from samsung 8nm to tsmc 5nm, so that's just me expecting for the best for a hardware that seems to be a 2024 release (by 'for the best' I mean for a product in the ballpark of $350-$400 of course lol)

 

[ReyVGM]

I'm so afraid Nintendo is going to fuck it up when it comes to the look of the next console. There's only so much you can do with the form factor to differentiate it from the Switch and I'm scared they're gonna do some weird shenanigans like making the console purple or attaching something stupid to it like handle.

 

[NintendoMariah]

I'm so afraid Nintendo is going to fuck it up when it comes to the look of the next console. There's only so much you can do with the form factor to differentiate it from the Switch and I'm scared they're gonna do some weird shenanigans like making the console purple or attaching something stupid to it like handle.

epic idea of a console. i would buy it day 1.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I'm so afraid Nintendo is going to fuck it up when it comes to the look of the next console. There's only so much you can do with the form factor to differentiate it from the Switch and I'm scared they're gonna do some weird shenanigans like making the console purple or attaching something stupid to it like handle.

cubes are in vogue. make it cube shaped

 

[Dark Cloud]

epic idea of a console. i would buy it day 1.

You and 21 million people will buy it

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Gotcha. I thought It would be something related to efficiency of the SoC.

Yeah, that's why I said I don't mind a thicker form factor. Bigger battery, more juice coming from that SoC. Because I would really like the CPU at 1.8GHz to 2GHz, and if they can get those 2TF on handheld... that would be nice too. But we have no idea about node or how much of a difference it would be coming from samsung 8nm to tsmc 5nm, so that's just me expecting for the best for a hardware that seems to be a 2024 release (by 'for the best' I mean for a product in the ballpark of $350-$400 of course lol)

It’s also factoring the comment thraktor made several weeks ago that point to the idea of where the efficiency curve can land.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Oldpuck's leaving #teamleapday? Guess I'll have to continue flying the flag solo. On the time of 18 to 24 months from sampling to release, I assume you're talking about the TX1 and the original Switch? If so, I don't think it's really comparable, as TX1 was already entering production...

famiboards.com

 

[P4bl0]

The argument that Nintendo doesn't strictly need new software for a hardware launch is one that comes with specific context.

There's an oft-cited chart about how Sony's transition from PlayStation 4 to PlayStation 5 was the first time the company managed to avoid an operating loss for a new home console's first year since they entered the video game business:



Because of the substantial increase in users for console subscription services, and the resulting heavily-extended shelf life of older games, it's possible that traditional rules about launch lineups no longer apply. In Nintendo's case, this would mean that they plan to launch the console with mostly (or even entirely) cross-generation games, and then slowly transition towards the new console exclusives over the following months and years. This is where Nintendo's emphasis on having a smooth transition for accounts and digital services comes into play.

In this scenario, the primary buyers of the new device for its first few months would be people who want to play older Nintendo games with higher resolutions and frame rates, while most others would continue to buy older Switches at the same steadily declining pace that existed before launch.

This is actually the implicit position that anyone expecting a 2023 or Q1 (January to March) 2024 launch has had for a long time, which is why most recent pieces of information, like the Q&A sessions at the investor meetings and the video games announced at the June Direct, have done little to dissuade anyone who thinks an announcement might be coming soon.

Of course, it's easy to reasonably disagree with this position. One counterargument is that, unlike with Sony, there aren't enough people willing to buy the new console just for older upscaled Nintendo games. If Nintendo is indeed waiting for a better launch lineup because of this, then the wait is very likely for the second half of 2024, at least, given current information.

Right on the money that’s mostly what’s gonna happen

 

[Kise Ryota]

It’s also factoring the comment thraktor made several weeks ago that point to the idea of where the efficiency curve can land.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Oldpuck's leaving #teamleapday? Guess I'll have to continue flying the flag solo. On the time of 18 to 24 months from sampling to release, I assume you're talking about the TX1 and the original Switch? If so, I don't think it's really comparable, as TX1 was already entering production...

famiboards.com

Yeah, I remember reading that. Interesting stuff for sure.

But we can't really use that to say what is going to be the sweet spot of a SoC made in a different node (and we don't even know in which one it will be, but we all expect it not to be in 8nm lol)

There, thraktor is considering that nintendo would have decided for a budget of 3W for the GPU when planning the SoC and that they would keep the same form factor (we have no idea for both). He's also taking a shot trying to find the peak efficiency clock of the SoC using the 4N tsmc.

Therefore, I don't think this can be used to claim that 13W wouldn't be a sweet spot for the SoC. We are all just shooting at everything here lol

 

[Deleted member 887]

What does it even mean? Why would you say that just because I talked about a thicker form factor, a 40Wh battery and a small increase (compared with switch v1) in system power draw?

Were you implying that a 40Wh battery and a better cooling solution would automatically make it to cost $700? We all know that ASUS has to make all their profit from the hardware only (and that isn't going to sell not even remotely close to whatever Nintendo releases)

I misunderstood your statement about power draw. I was saying that the form factor of the Ally while acceptable and (even preferable) to some of the folks in this thread, ultimately, Nintendo needs to ship a system that appeals to the buyers of their best selling franchise. It wasn't a value judgement on your wants, it was predictive of Nintendo's behavior. I don't play Pokemon, I'm 41 with a bad back but great forearm strength and a decent income - there is certainly things I want out of the device that aren't compatible with Nintendo's goals either.

I originally wrote a longer statement about hoping aftermarket upgrades would make it possible to expand both the size and battery life of the device, but I deleted it as a tangent. I certainly don't think there is anything wrong with wanting that sorta system, and certainly wasn't intending to be dismissive of your contribution!

Well, it was a tough day for me. Sorry if I read it in a salt way.

No worries friend, I see how it could be read that way, and my apology was genuine. Sorry you've had a rough day! I hope tomorrow is better

 

[snorkellingfish]

But there is a need for new hardware though the Switch in it's 7th year

Whats with 2D Mario preventing it to sell Switch 1 and Switch 2 at the same time ?

Nintendo wants to sell consoles and games, whether it's the Switch 1 or both they are winning

Marketing is what makes Mario Wonder an unlikely candidate for a Switch 2 launch title.

If they'd announced it as being this shiny, new Switch 2 game (with cross-gen availability as an addendum), then that would make sense. If it had been announced years in advance, and then become a launch title as a result of delays and timing, that would also make sense.

It's been announced less than 6 months before release as a Switch 1 game. It doesn't make sense from a marketing perspective to turn around a month later to say that it's actually a Switch 2 launch title. That doesn't sell people on buying Switch 2s - and I can't imagine Nintendo not wanting their launch titles to sell their new hardware.

Maybe that's what they want internally ? Huge hype frenzy, not many games at launch while Switch 1 still has games, kinda like PS4 and PS5, allows them for a smooth transition

Let's say you had two choices to plan for something as significant as new hardware:

1. Release it with hype new software to generate hype, and encourage people to buy the hardware that you'll be relying on for the next several years; or
2. Release it without new software, and take on faith that hype from the previous software will definitely carry over to get people to buy a product that doesn't actually have exclusive games (or cross-gen games with an appreciably enhanced experience).

You're making this call years in advance, because software and hardware development takes time. Which looks like the safer option?

Yes this is exactly how I'm seeing things unfold, though I think they will have at least one launch game AA or AAA, and proper line up in 2024

All the scenarios of H2 2024, 2025 launch would imply that the Switch 1 would be dead at the ng launch and I don't see this happening.

I don't see them going all in on the launch of Switch 2, I think it will take a year or two to build solid install base before slowly ditching Switch 1

Why does a H2 2024 or 2025 launch imply that Switch 1 would be dead? Whatever the period between today and the release of Switch 2 (whether that's just a few months or a couple of years), Nintendo will presumably continue to announce new games - just like they did last month for H2 2023.

I don't disagree with the idea that Nintendo may have a range of cross-gen titles to release through the Switch 2 launch window. I just think that they'll be announced and marketed as cross-gen titles, and not as Switch 1 titles.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Hm, doing rough math, if the 8 cores are clocked to 1.85GHz and the GPU is clocked to 550MHz, I think the SoC itself would consume ~6W? Roughly speaking on 4nm?

If it’s 1.5GHz for the CPU it would be ~5W.


If we want to be bold, if the CPU is clocked to 2.12GHz, the SoC would consume ~7W


I think…????


RAM has to be accounted for, so does the screen, so does the Wi-Fi, so does Bluetooth, so do sensors, fans, etc. yes that includes Storage.

But idk any of that for the current switch lol.


I think 6W is a good number.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yeah, I remember reading that. Interesting stuff for sure.

But we can't really use that to say what is going to be the sweet spot of a SoC made in a different node (and we don't even know in which one it will be, but we all expect it not to be in 8nm lol)

There, thraktor is considering that nintendo would have decided for a budget of 3W for the GPU when planning the SoC and that they would keep the same form factor (we have no idea for both). He's also taking a shot trying to find the peak efficiency clock of the SoC using the 4N tsmc.

Therefore, I don't think this can be used to claim that 13W wouldn't be a sweet spot for the SoC. We are all just shooting at everything here lol

If 13W is the sweet spot nintendo ends up with, in which 10-11W are for the SoC because the rest doesn’t consume 6W, there are more pressing matters than the deduction we are coming up with.


And really concerning ones at that.


The 3W budget is to follow a similar model of the current Nintendo switch, but the similar form factor, well if Nintendo changes it then it isn’t a switch and we would have heard something about it already from some developer about how their games are being developed differently for a system that is supposed to be the successor to the current one. Even an inkling or even a touch of something different would have slipped, whether 6 months or 1.5 years away from launch of the new system.

 

[Kise Ryota]

there are more pressing matters than the deduction we are coming up with.


And really concerning ones at that.

For example?

edit:

If 13W is the sweet spot nintendo ends up with, in which 10-11W are for the SoC because the rest doesn’t consume 6W

Oh, wow! That's a big difference when comparing with those windows PCs (which were what I had in mind when thinking about power draw).
On a steam deck for example, if the APU is using 8W or 12W, the system power draw (total) is gonna be double of that (16W/24W)

If that's not the case with T239, then maybe we really don't even need all that wattage.

edit²:

The 3W budget is to follow a similar model of the current Nintendo switch, but the similar form factor, well if Nintendo changes it then it isn’t a switch and we would have heard something about it already from some developer about how their games are being developed differently for a system that is supposed to be the successor to the current one. Even an inkling or even a touch of something different would have slipped, whether 6 months or 1.5 years away from launch of the new system.

Didn't see this edit. Well, I don't think a 'bigger switch' would make it not a switch anymore lol

 

[Derachi]

hey folks watt is going on in this thread tonight

 

[Deleted member 887]

For example?

That the sweet spot is that high.

Just to be clear - when we talk about the Sweet Spot in the power curve you're talking about the most efficient point. In terms of wattage, the sweet spot probably doesn't move. What would move is how much you get at that sweet spot. Does that make sense?

Like, one of the reasons the Steam Deck tends to beat the other mini PCs even though they've got on paper specs that are higher is because AMD and Valve tweaked the power curves so that they favor the bottom end of the scale more. Which means that at, say, 7W, Steam Deck gets more performance than the Rog Ally at 7 W.

You can clock above the sweet spot, you can clock below it - every Nvidia GPU on the market clocks way past their sweet spot, most likely. The Sweet Spot is just where the biggest bang for the buck is. You can still spend more bucks! Just the return on those bucks (ie Watts) gets smaller and smaller as you go.

As someone who also really wants a decently high CPU clock, the ideal isn't "I hope the sweet spot is at such and such watts" it's "I hope the sweet spot is at a place where Nintendo can hit 2GHz, and still stay in their overall power budget"

Making this even more complicated, despite the fact that Drake is all one chip, there are likely very different power curves for the CPU vs the GPU vs the memory controller

 

[chocolate_supra]

hey folks watt is going on in this thread tonight

 

[Kise Ryota]

That the sweet spot is that high.

Just to be clear - when we talk about the Sweet Spot in the power curve you're talking about the most efficient point. In terms of wattage, the sweet spot probably doesn't move. What would move is how much you get at that sweet spot. Does that make sense?

Like, one of the reasons the Steam Deck tends to beat the other mini PCs even though they've got on paper specs that are higher is because AMD and Valve tweaked the power curves so that they favor the bottom end of the scale more. Which means that at, say, 7W, Steam Deck gets more performance than the Rog Ally at 7 W.

You can clock above the sweet spot, you can clock below it - every Nvidia GPU on the market clocks way past their sweet spot, most likely. The Sweet Spot is just where the biggest bang for the buck is. You can still spend more bucks! Just the return on those bucks (ie Watts) gets smaller and smaller as you go.

As someone who also really wants a decently high CPU clock, the ideal isn't "I hope the sweet spot is at such and such watts" it's "I hope the sweet spot is at a place where Nintendo can hit 2GHz, and still stay in their overall power budget"

Making this even more complicated, despite the fact that Drake is all one chip, there are likely very different power curves for the CPU vs the GPU vs the memory controller

So, if I understood it right, I could have said "I don't mind a system power draw of 13W (and the appropriate form factor for it, and 60% more weight) if that brings a high CPU clock and those neat 2TF"

Like I said on a post above, I was looking too much into windows PC's in terms of power draw. I have seen that the system draw is almost or double the APU power draw. If Nintendo can manage the other components to a much smaller consumption, then maybe they can delivery great performance without having to go higher in wattage.

 

[ngpdrew]

So you really think they going to sleep and give up on a 130m install base ?

Sleep? No. They’ll give them Untitled Peach Game and Luigi’s Mansion 2. Maybe a Fire Emblem for good measure. Probably some GCN releases for us old folks. That’s it though.

 

[AshiodyneFX]

When I went back and looked for this quote, I found this assumption of yours was already previously addressed back in March. Let me quote myself again…

Unless Nintendo opts to use the exact same battery they used in 2017 again, there’s around 30% more headroom for performance changes at the same battery life, at least. Depending on when the battery they use is finalized, ~6064mAh is now also possible, which would be a ~40% increase in capacity with minimal to no change in price or physical dimensions.
I don’t expect Nintendo to utilize all of that for additional performance from the SoC, but it at least gives them room to consider it.

Assuming an unchanged voltage thats 21.35~ watt hours...A good chunk more i expected and still somewhat expect honestly, i would thinking they'd target 18-20 watt hours ranges, thats a pretty good increase in wattage budget, if they wanna get 3 hours of battery minimum like the V1 switch then their budget go from 5.32~ watts to 7.11~ watts- thats...alot more headroom than i imagined huh...

 

[P4bl0]

Marketing is what makes Mario Wonder an unlikely candidate for a Switch 2 launch title.

If they'd announced it as being this shiny, new Switch 2 game (with cross-gen availability as an addendum), then that would make sense. If it had been announced years in advance, and then become a launch title as a result of delays and timing, that would also make sense.

It's been announced less than 6 months before release as a Switch 1 game. It doesn't make sense from a marketing perspective to turn around a month later to say that it's actually a Switch 2 launch title. That doesn't sell people on buying Switch 2s - and I can't imagine Nintendo not wanting their launch titles to sell their new hardware.


Let's say you had two choices to plan for something as significant as new hardware:

1. Release it with hype new software to generate hype, and encourage people to buy the hardware that you'll be relying on for the next several years; or
2. Release it without new software, and take on faith that hype from the previous software will definitely carry over to get people to buy a product that doesn't actually have exclusive games (or cross-gen games with an appreciably enhanced experience).

You're making this call years in advance, because software and hardware development takes time. Which looks like the safer option?


Why does a H2 2024 or 2025 launch imply that Switch 1 would be dead? Whatever the period between today and the release of Switch 2 (whether that's just a few months or a couple of years), Nintendo will presumably continue to announce new games - just like they did last month for H2 2023.

I don't disagree with the idea that Nintendo may have a range of cross-gen titles to release through the Switch 2 launch window. I just think that they'll be announced and marketed as cross-gen titles, and not as Switch 1 titles.

I understand your perspective regarding Nintendo's plans for new hardware and game releases. While it's true that Nintendo wants to sell consoles and games, their approach to transitioning between hardware generations and launching new titles can vary.

Announcing a game like Mario Wonder as a Switch 1 title just months before release might seem counterintuitive from a marketing perspective. However, it's possible that Nintendo has strategic reasons for this decision. They may be aiming to maintain a strong lineup for the Switch 1 and ensure a smooth transition to the Switch 2.

Releasing new hardware with exclusive software can generate hype and encourage people to invest in the new system. On the other hand, releasing the new hardware without exclusive games relies on the momentum and hype generated by the previous software. Nintendo would need to have faith that the existing hype would carry over to entice people to purchase the new product.

Regarding your point about the Switch 1 potentially being "dead" at the launch of the Switch 2, it's important to consider that Nintendo will likely continue to announce new games for the Switch 1 during the transition period. This is similar to what they did last month, where they announced games for H2 2023. The launch of the Switch 2 doesn't necessarily mean the end of support for the Switch 1 right away.

While it's understandable to anticipate a range of cross-gen titles during the Switch 2 launch window, it's possible that these games will be marketed and announced as Switch 1 pre-announcement, rather than as exclusive titles for the Switch 2.

In conclusion, Nintendo's strategies for hardware transitions and game releases can vary, and their decisions are influenced by numerous factors. Without official statements or insider information, we can only speculate about their intentions. It will be interesting to see how Nintendo navigates the launch of the Switch 2 and the ongoing support for the Switch 1.

 

[P4bl0]

Sleep? No. They’ll give them Untitled Peach Game and Luigi’s Mansion 2. Maybe a Fire Emblem for good measure. Probably some GCN releases for us old folks. That’s it though.

It's worth considering that Nintendo has a history of providing ongoing support and a diverse lineup of games for their existing platforms. The success of the Switch and its large install base would certainly be a factor in their decision-making process.

Nintendo has shown a commitment to backward compatibility and cross-gen releases in the past. They have often released games that appeal to both the existing player base and newcomers. It's possible that Nintendo could continue to release new titles, such as an untitled Peach game, Luigi's Mansion 2, and even Fire Emblem, to cater to a wide range of players and maintain interest in the Switch.

Moreover, Nintendo has a track record of re-releasing classic games from previous generations. The availability of GameCube releases for nostalgic players, as you mentioned, is something Nintendo has done before. This not only appeals to longtime fans but also introduces these beloved titles to a new audience.

While it's difficult to predict the exact lineup of games and features for a potential Switch 2 launch, it's reasonable to assume that Nintendo would carefully consider how to provide a smooth transition for their existing user base while enticing new users to adopt the new hardware.

Ultimately, Nintendo's decisions will be driven by a combination of factors, including market trends, technological advancements, and their vision for the future of gaming. It will be exciting to see how Nintendo navigates these considerations and shapes the future of their console offerings.

 

[Cybergatuno]

...
Why does a H2 2024 or 2025 launch imply that Switch 1 would be dead? Whatever the period between today and the release of Switch 2 (whether that's just a few months or a couple of years), Nintendo will presumably continue to announce new games - just like they did last month for H2 2023.
...

Agree.
As much as I want a successor, I don't see the Switch dying.
Hardware sales may be declining, of course, but software sales are strong and steady.

When a big publisher releases a big game, it sells 3-5M the first week if lucky, top the charts for a couple of weeks then disappears forever.
Nintendo's big titles sell 10M is 3 days and some top the charts for months.
It's the only publisher that has titles that reappear on the charts even years after release.

They're in a perfect spot.
Their hardware is reaching market saturation and the user base is very active.
They've done it, they widely deployed their platform, without a single price cut in almost 7 years, and their AA cash-grabs sell 5M without breaking a sweat.
They just have to keep releasing games to keep printing money.

I wouldn't gamble it all by rushing a successor.
Nobody knows how active the user base will be in 2025.
I suspect it will still be very active if Nintendo keeps releasing good games.

 

[P4bl0]

Agree.
As much as I want a successor, I don't see the Switch dying.
Hardware sales may be declining, of course, but software sales are strong and steady.

When a big publisher releases a big game, it sells 3-5M the first week if lucky, top the charts for a couple of weeks then disappears forever.
Nintendo's big titles sell 10M is 3 days and some top the charts for months.
It's the only publisher that has titles that reappear on the charts even years after release.

They're in a perfect spot.
Their hardware is reaching market saturation and the user base is very active.
They've done it, they widely deployed their platform, without a single price cut in almost 7 years, and their AA cash-grabs sell 5M without breaking a sweat.
They just have to keep releasing games to keep printing money.

I wouldn't gamble it all by rushing a successor.
Nobody knows how active the user base will be in 2025.
I suspect it will still be very active if Nintendo keeps releasing good games.

One aspect to consider is market saturation. While the Switch has achieved widespread popularity and amassed a large user base, there is a risk of reaching a point where the majority of potential customers already own a Switch. Releasing a successor can help invigorate the market by attracting new customers who may be waiting for a fresh and improved system.

Technological advancements also play a significant role. The gaming industry is constantly evolving, and new technologies emerge that can enhance the gaming experience. By introducing a new console, Nintendo can leverage these advancements and offer improved performance, better graphics, and innovative features that may not be possible on the current Switch hardware. This can lead to exciting new gaming experiences and keep the brand competitive in the market.

While the software sales for the Switch have been strong, it's important to consider long-term sustainability. Releasing a successor can generate renewed interest in software sales by enticing users to upgrade their hardware and explore new games optimized for the new system. This can contribute to long-term profitability and maintain the momentum of software sales.

Also, a successor console allows for innovation and the introduction of new gameplay experiences. It provides an opportunity for Nintendo to introduce innovative mechanics, unique features, and fresh game concepts. This can further differentiate their offerings and provide players with new experiences that they may not find on the current hardware. A successor console opens up possibilities for game developers and encourages creative exploration within the Nintendo ecosystem.

Lastly, it's essential to acknowledge the evolving market dynamics. The gaming industry is dynamic, with competitors continuously releasing new hardware and innovations. To remain competitive, Nintendo needs to keep up with industry trends and consumer expectations. Releasing a successor demonstrates their commitment to staying at the forefront of the gaming market and ensures that they can adapt to changing player preferences and emerging technologies.

 

[Atlus]

I'm calling it now. New hardware launches this year. Super Mario Bros Wonder is a launch title, and will release on October 20th the day the Nintendo Switch was originally revealed with their original trailer. Also this move in the image below and many more in the game will use a scroll mechanic. Also one of the gimmicks is focused on spatial audio which is why this game deals with sound and music so much. And like many Super Mario games before it, it will help introduce you to all the new controls.

 

[P4bl0]

I'm calling it now. New hardware launches this year. Super Mario Bros Wonder is a launch title, and will release on October 20th the day the Nintendo Switch was originally revealed with their original trailer. Also this move in the image below and many more in the game will use a scroll mechanic. Also one of the gimmicks is focused on spatial audio which is why this game deals with sound and music so much. And like many Super Mario games before it, it will help introduce you to all the new controls.

Wow didn't make the connection between October 20 2023 and 2016, that's fun.

It's a Switch 1 game though so how would you go about the new controls on the Switch 1 ?