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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

My guess: Next week.
/drops mic
https://mynintendonews.com/2023/06/...page-today-generally-precedes-a-presentation/

Look at me. I am the insider now.

its-happening.gif
 
18 months is a lot, Switch has started to feel dated for quite some time already (to me at least) and I still consider the OLED announcement as a betrayal because we deserved better.
So yea at this point, I'm waiting mostly for a reveal no matter when this releases, but I'm always a bit triggered when I see someone claim or imply that a holiday 2024 would be "fine" 🫢

Also it seems the Japanese Nintendo Direct page has been updated, which tends to precede a Direct.
If that's indeed a "classic" Direct it probably won't involve hardware but well.

This pretty much.

For those who can't understand the impatience, try to at least. Seriously, tech, particularly in the handheld space, is in a race and has been progressing rapidly in recent years. Even when the Switch 2 releases, I hate to admit, that console will also be outdated in comparison to very valid and viable contenders and yes I will point out ROG Ally. I've obsessed over videos of that thing and what it can do is very impressive that I am buying one for myself. Niche you could say but for each person who is aware and on-board with every Steam Deck or ROG Ally, that is another consumer who won't be as impressed by the Switch 2.

I will be excited for it of course, mainly for the exclusives as well, but I am not going to be blown away by it knowing what we know about it and how limited it will be for however many years Nintendo will drag out its cycle for before making another iteration (if they do, I hope they stick with Switch for the foreseeable future.) The original Switch tech is holding Nintendo back and yes, Tears was good but....I can see it run at 4K60 on emulation and it looks so damn impressive that I really wish that Nintendo just released it as a cross gen game and dropped the console already because it is compromised the way it is now and having played it, I can safely say it wasn't smooth for me, even BOTW felt better to play than what I had to put up with in Years. But seeing what it could've been only makes me long for more powerful tech without compromise now.

The Switch has grown long in the tooth for me and I do feel Nintendo has been too coy with the next console and felt too comfortable riding out the Switch, 2024 for me is too long to be riding this and only allows others to hop into this space more and more and progress it further. None may ever attain the mass appeal of the Switch (though if by some miracle one does manage to hit the zeitgeist I wonder how Nintendo would respond in that hypothetical scenario.) However, they do put the Switch's tech into perspective and make me realise even on Switch 2 that it will be behind even then in power and have to compromise with ports. Exclusives I do think will be absolutely exciting and less compromised which is the only excitement I feel alongside being able to play my backlog of Switch games on better hardware. But I have zero reason to invest in third party software on Switch like I did in the past now that I can play better versions with less compromise, which will still be present on Switch 2 given the specs and will only continue to grow every year going forwards.

So that is my impatience, I care a great deal about the capabilities of the hardware and have seen the Switch 1 struggle immensely over the last two years to the point where I don't want to play any titles until the successor releases so I can play them (BC is a certainty, don't doubt it at all) on something that will run and look better. I only played Tears because I love Zelda and couldn't hold back but I did stop playing after 20 or so hours because I did not want to finish it until the successor came out knowing how much better it could be.

Remakes and games will only get you so far dragging this out any further. Even Prime 4, which I am absolutely FREAKING EXCITED FOR will sadly be compromised in some way due to Switch 1 and I cannot play it until Switch 2 because I know it will be cross-gen. And that saddens me to know I have to force myself to hold out because the compromise bothers me too much. Tears cemented that to me. I mean, we don't even know that it will have QOL features like VRR which, having played with VRR, is a must have feature in 2023 for gaming and makes a huge difference when dealing with fluctuating frame-rates. People really are waiting on more powerful hardware, they want a successor and the longer they have to wait the more impatient the sentiment will be.

I've said it before and will say it again, Nintendo is going to be foolish not releasing this console this year and dragging this out till next year. Holiday 2024 especially is just too much, we can debate Spring 2024 but Holiday 2024 is...well it's something alright.

...But I'm getting ahead of myself because it's coming this year and obligatory #Team2023.
 
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I understand that the console is showing its age, and I'll be the first to be delighted when the next one comes out. However, I don't understand what betrayal you're talking about. Nintendo, which is a company and not our friend, has never promised anything on this subject. As for "deserving better", once again this personalizes a relationship that doesn't need to be personalized in my opinion.

A consumer either buys stuff or doesn't buy stuff, it's not an emotional relationship. And commercially, to be "betrayed" not by a console that exists and offers TOTK on its end of life but by something that doesn't exist yet is strange to me.
You're right, I exaggerated that on purpose but that's just another way to tell I was really disappointed the moment they revealed the OLED.
 
It's not complicated, especially for docked gamers and especially for docked gamers who also play on other platforms, Switch is extremely outdated and if we have to wait another 18 months It'll be like playing on something from the dark ages.

In my case, it's not even this. It's more than clear that most of Nintendo's big teams are working on games that are targeting the successor. I just want to play more good games sooner rather than later
 
18 months is a lot, Switch has started to feel dated for quite some time already (to me at least) and I still consider the OLED announcement as a betrayal because we deserved better.
So yea at this point, I'm waiting mostly for a reveal no matter when this releases, but I'm always a bit triggered when I see someone claim or imply that a holiday 2024 would be "fine" 🫢

Also it seems the Japanese Nintendo Direct page has been updated, which tends to precede a Direct.
If that's indeed a "classic" Direct it probably won't involve hardware but well.
Wasnt there mentioned of the NA direct page updating or was it only referring to the japanese one?
 
0
Well, as someone who DOES own a Steam Deck, PS5, etc, going back to Switch games isn't really all that bad for me. Hell, if we want to talk about the Steam Deck, the built-in framerate cap the Deck offers to lock a framerate causes immense input lag that feels sluggish beyond belief. Tears of the Kingdom and etc may run at 30, but the input lag doesn't quite reflect that and they perform fairly well on that front so it still feels responsive. If the game can't hit 60, there's less reason to play on the Deck solely due to that versus just a PS5 or even a potential Switch 2 version that runs it at 30. (Although, some Switch ports have horrendous input lag like Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night and Rune Factory 5)

Also, historically the best consoles were never the most powerful and the best games have always punched above their weight. PS1, PS2, Wii, Switch, every single Nintendo handheld, you name it. The PS4 is the only console to buck that trend.

We are due for new hardware, but even as a tech enthusiast I don't mind going back for now.
 
It's not complicated, especially for docked gamers and especially for docked gamers who also play on other platforms, Switch is extremely outdated and if we have to wait another 18 months It'll be like playing on something from the dark ages.
If you also play on other platforms, problem solved. You can find great games on other great platforms that are more in line with what you want or your standards. Playing on other platforms is just one reason to be less impatient.

Generally speaking, all the consoles on the market are excellent. There's something for everyone. People know what they're buying when they buy a Switch. Nobody's saying that Playstation 5 sucks because you can't play Zelda on Playstation 5. That wouldn't make sense.

This pretty much.

For those who can't understand the impatience, try to at least. Seriously, tech, particularly in the handheld space, is in a race and has been progressing rapidly in recent years. Even when the Switch 2 releases, I hate to admit, that console will also be outdated in comparison to very valid and viable contenders and yes I will point out ROG Ally. I've obsessed over videos of that thing and what it can do is very impressive that I am buying one for myself. Niche you could say but for each person who is aware and on-board with every Steam Deck or ROG Ally, that is another consumer who won't be as impressed by the Switch 2.

I will be excited for it of course, mainly for the exclusives as well, but I am not going to be blown away by it knowing what we know about it and how limited it will be for however many years Nintendo will drag out its cycle for before making another iteration (if they do, I hope they stick with Switch for the foreseeable future.) The original Switch tech is holding Nintendo back and yes, Tears was good but....I can see it run at 4K60 on emulation and it looks so damn impressive that I really wish that Nintendo just released it as a cross gen game and dropped the console already because it is compromised the way it is now and having played it, I can safely say it wasn't smooth for me, even BOTW felt better to play than what I had to put up with in Years. But seeing what it could've been only makes me long for more powerful tech without compromise now.

The Switch has grown long in the tooth for me and I do feel Nintendo has been too coy with the next console and felt too comfortable riding out the Switch, 2024 for me is too long to be riding this and only allows others to hop into this space more and more and progress it further. None may ever attain the mass appeal of the Switch (though if by some miracle one does manage to hit the zeitgeist I wonder how Nintendo would respond in that hypothetical scenario.) However, they do put the Switch's tech into perspective and make me realise even on Switch 2 that it will be behind even then in power and have to compromise with ports. Exclusives I do think will be absolutely exciting and less compromised which is the only excitement I feel alongside being able to play my backlog of Switch games on better hardware. But I have zero reason to invest in third party software on Switch like I did in the past now that I can play better versions with less compromise, which will still be present on Switch 2 given the specs and will only continue to grow every year going forwards.

So that is my impatience, I care a great deal about the capabilities of the hardware and have seen the Switch 1 struggle immensely over the last two years to the point where I don't want to play any titles until the successor releases so I can play them (BC is a certainty, don't doubt it at all) on something that will run and look better. I only played Tears because I love Zelda and couldn't hold back but I did stop playing after 20 or so hours because I did not want to finish it until the successor came out knowing how much better it could be.

Remakes and games will only get you so far dragging this out any further. Even Prime 4, which I am absolutely FREAKING EXCITED FOR will sadly be compromised in some way due to Switch 1 and I cannot play it until Switch 2 because I know it will be cross-gen. And that saddens me to know I have to force myself to hold out because the compromise bothers me too much. Tears cemented that to me. I mean, we don't even know that it will have QOL features like VRR which, having played with VRR, is a must have feature in 2023 for gaming and makes a huge difference when dealing with fluctuating frame-rates. People really are waiting on more powerful hardware, they want a successor and the longer they have to wait the more impatient the sentiment will be.

I've said it before and will say it again, Nintendo is going to be foolish not releasing this console this year and dragging this out till next year. Holiday 2024 especially is just too much, we can debate Spring 2024 but Holiday 2024 is...well it's something alright.

...But I'm getting ahead of myself because it's coming this year and obligatory #Team2023.
But there's nothing wrong with buying an ROG Ally if it suits you better and if you can afford it. It's not the same positioning or the same price, but if it's a console that more closely matches what you want, that's fine. I totally understand that you can like Nintendo games AND want something better. I can't wait to see an open-world Zelda running at 4K/60FPS. But I didn't buy my Switch for that, just as if I bought a Rogue Ally it wouldn't be for its affordability or to play Zelda.

Referring to emulation is not taking into account the fact that Nintendo isn't just Ubisoft or Activision, and develops its hardware and software jointly. Yes, emulation is great, I hear. Nintendo games wouldn't exist without Nintendo hardware, but emulation is great, I suppose.
 
If you also play on other platforms, problem solved. You can find great games on other great platforms that are more in line with what you want or your standards. Playing on other platforms is just one reason to be less impatient.
Nope, the majority of my absolute favourite games are Nintendo games, I love playing Ghost of Tsushima on PS5 in 4K and the amazing visuals but I'd swap it for TotK on Switch 2 in a heartbeat.
 
This pretty much.

For those who can't understand the impatience, try to at least. Seriously, tech, particularly in the handheld space, is in a race and has been progressing rapidly in recent years. Even when the Switch 2 releases, I hate to admit, that console will also be outdated in comparison to very valid and viable contenders and yes I will point out ROG Ally. I've obsessed over videos of that thing and what it can do is very impressive that I am buying one for myself. Niche you could say but for each person who is aware and on-board with every Steam Deck or ROG Ally, that is another consumer who won't be as impressed by the Switch 2.

I will be excited for it of course, mainly for the exclusives as well, but I am not going to be blown away by it knowing what we know about it and how limited it will be for however many years Nintendo will drag out its cycle for before making another iteration (if they do, I hope they stick with Switch for the foreseeable future.) The original Switch tech is holding Nintendo back and yes, Tears was good but....I can see it run at 4K60 on emulation and it looks so damn impressive that I really wish that Nintendo just released it as a cross gen game and dropped the console already because it is compromised the way it is now and having played it, I can safely say it wasn't smooth for me, even BOTW felt better to play than what I had to put up with in Years. But seeing what it could've been only makes me long for more powerful tech without compromise now.

The Switch has grown long in the tooth for me and I do feel Nintendo has been too coy with the next console and felt too comfortable riding out the Switch, 2024 for me is too long to be riding this and only allows others to hop into this space more and more and progress it further. None may ever attain the mass appeal of the Switch (though if by some miracle one does manage to hit the zeitgeist I wonder how Nintendo would respond in that hypothetical scenario.) However, they do put the Switch's tech into perspective and make me realise even on Switch 2 that it will be behind even then in power and have to compromise with ports. Exclusives I do think will be absolutely exciting and less compromised which is the only excitement I feel alongside being able to play my backlog of Switch games on better hardware. But I have zero reason to invest in third party software on Switch like I did in the past now that I can play better versions with less compromise, which will still be present on Switch 2 given the specs and will only continue to grow every year going forwards.

So that is my impatience, I care a great deal about the capabilities of the hardware and have seen the Switch 1 struggle immensely over the last two years to the point where I don't want to play any titles until the successor releases so I can play them (BC is a certainty, don't doubt it at all) on something that will run and look better. I only played Tears because I love Zelda and couldn't hold back but I did stop playing after 20 or so hours because I did not want to finish it until the successor came out knowing how much better it could be.

Remakes and games will only get you so far dragging this out any further. Even Prime 4, which I am absolutely FREAKING EXCITED FOR will sadly be compromised in some way due to Switch 1 and I cannot play it until Switch 2 because I know it will be cross-gen. And that saddens me to know I have to force myself to hold out because the compromise bothers me too much. Tears cemented that to me. I mean, we don't even know that it will have QOL features like VRR which, having played with VRR, is a must have feature in 2023 for gaming and makes a huge difference when dealing with fluctuating frame-rates. People really are waiting on more powerful hardware, they want a successor and the longer they have to wait the more impatient the sentiment will be.

I've said it before and will say it again, Nintendo is going to be foolish not releasing this console this year and dragging this out till next year. Holiday 2024 especially is just too much, we can debate Spring 2024 but Holiday 2024 is...well it's something alright.

...But I'm getting ahead of myself because it's coming this year and obligatory #Team2023.

I think many people will be impressed with the switch 2 even if they are technically inclined. Assuming we get exactly what we speculated, this is a Steam Deck equivalent at a lower price and much smaller form factor. Add in DLSS and potentially high speed storage and that is a very impressive piece of tech right there. I got a Steam Deck and interested in the Ally but I know full well the compromises they need to make for that power performance like size, weight, heat, low power nvme and battery life. The Switch 2 will be in that performance range without most of the compromises. If this Switch 2 is as speculated, this is a much more advance technology unless peak performance is your main standard.
 
Woth 150+ hours on ToTK (being sick has its perks), i'm quite disapointed with how it runs. Yeah, it doesnt look all that fancy, but fighting multiple enemies, setting the grass on fire, everything starts to lag. Not fun.

So i'm playing it with switch now, and maybe, maybe, a second run with switch 2. But this is a big maybe, since ive played it, i need some good reasons to play it from the start again.

And while im having a ton of fun, i have to admit, playing totk first time with switch 2 would probably be more fun, even of the only thing we get is that it runs 30/60fps constantly without any dips.
 
Woth 150+ hours on ToTK (being sick has its perks), i'm quite disapointed with how it runs. Yeah, it doesnt look all that fancy, but fighting multiple enemies, setting the grass on fire, everything starts to lag. Not fun.

So i'm playing it with switch now, and maybe, maybe, a second run with switch 2. But this is a big maybe, since ive played it, i need some good reasons to play it from the start again.

And while im having a ton of fun, i have to admit, playing totk first time with switch 2 would probably be more fun, even of the only thing we get is that it runs 30/60fps constantly without any dips.
That's why I'm waiting on Switch 2 and haven't bought ToTK despite BOTW being my GOAT.
 
I haven't seen a full translation of the job listing yet but unless we have the full context the idea that Nintendo is their first customer may not exactly be relevant to the "post-release defect" part depending on what exactly they're referring to the release of.

Basically, what I mean is we need more context and an accurate translation before we can really figure out what product it's referring to releasing.
Yeah, same. I just meant that “release” in the context of third party working on middleware could mean anything from “release to internal customers” (ie Nintendo) or “release to external customer” which could be anything from developers to consumers.

A Partner Showcase IS a Direct. If they know it's a Direct I'd expect they'd say Direct. Seems like an odd thing for them to split hairs about, no?
Grubb’s statements, at least, have been taken wildly out of context.

Grubb was asked if he thought there would be a Direct in June, he says he’s hearing the first rumblings of an event in July, but he doesn’t know if it’s a mini or a partner showcase or what.

It’s 100% clear that Grubb is talking about a Direct. And as for why anyone would be slightly cagey, it’s because last year a lot of folks heard about the June Direct, said it was coming and when it was a partner showcase, they got lambasted for being “wrong.” They know it’s a Direct formatted presentation, they don’t know which type, and since Nintendo changed it up last year, they don’t want the backlash.

It's not confirmation bias to point to things and say "these seem connected, could this mean?".

Sure, it’s confirmation bias. Confirmation bias doesn’t mean your wrong :) Confirmation bias is just that - a bias, a tendency, to see data in a way that matches a pre-existing belief. That can include "these things seem connected."

You've been pretty clear in the past that you prefer optimism, because it's more fun. That's great. Other folks prefer pessimism, because it mitigates disappointment. That's also great. And there are a class of people who are more interested in the detective game, or playing Fantasy Console Designer.

Not speaking to you directly, but to the thread - other people's optimism/pessimism isn't a threat to yours. We can all have different standards to judge the same data by.
 
Nope, the majority of my absolute favourite games are Nintendo games, I love playing Ghost of Tsushima on PS5 in 4K and the amazing visuals but I'd swap it for TotK on Switch 2 in a heartbeat.
The Switch 2 will come out eventually. That's why I wasn't talking about wanting new hardware, I was talking about impatience. That doesn't stop me from thinking that BOTW or TOTK will be a delight when they inevitably come out on better hardware.
 
The Switch 2 will come out eventually. That's why I wasn't talking about wanting new hardware, I was talking about impatience. That doesn't stop me from thinking that BOTW or TOTK will be a delight when they inevitably come out on better hardware.
And 7 years after release and 3 years after talk of Switch Pro, I don't think it's impatience to be fed up waiting.
 
Grubb’s statements, at least, have been taken wildly out of context.

Grubb was asked if he thought there would be a Direct in June, he says he’s hearing the first rumblings of an event in July, but he doesn’t know if it’s a mini or a partner showcase or what.

It’s 100% clear that Grubb is talking about a Direct. And as for why anyone would be slightly cagey, it’s because last year a lot of folks heard about the June Direct, said it was coming and when it was a partner showcase, they got lambasted for being “wrong.” They know it’s a Direct formatted presentation, they don’t know which type, and since Nintendo changed it up last year, they don’t want the backlash.

steve-carell-thankyou.gif
 
Nintendo has never said anything publicly about a Switch Pro. So here we are blaming them for our own expectations.
Who's blaming anyone?
The current conversation is about some people not understanding others' impatience.
Expecting a new console after 7 years is hardly unreasonable anyway.
 
First off, this is deeply in the weeds, this is all hypothetical, edge-case stuff I'm mostly interested for technical reasons. The question of "1080p screen or not" is a lot about preference on the consumers end, and design goals on Nintendo's in. I'm not arguing for a "correct" answer.

But, second, the DLSS curves have never made sense to me, and I wanna wave this flag again. We know the curves go weird at the extreme ends, and we're talking about a device sitting well past the extreme end of the documented numbers. So understanding why the curves go all wonky is useful for predicting what the device is capable of.

The data in the DLSS programming guide is useful for integrators, but I think it's less useful for us. The clue is in the RTX 2080 (laptop) numbers. They skew wildly out of sync with the rest. The obvious answer to why - well, it's running on a laptop, different CPU/RAM set up etcetera. Which, unfortunately, means we can't trust that Nvidia took any more care in ensuring the base system for the rest of the numbers is identical.

Which means we can't really compare these numbers across cards to see how DLSS would behave at different levels of GPU power. But we can compare intra-card, and we see a pretty clear linear relationship with output resolution, which, yay! That's what we would expect. Solid.

However, the "curves" don't intersect the Y axis at 0. Not super surprising. The algorithm might be O(n) on paper, but all software has some overhead. And that's what I'm (in this overwritten way) trying to get at. On paper, the overhead seems to scale with TFLOPS, but we also know Nvidia didn't use a consistent base system, so it could easily be explained away by the CPU getting better and better across the various test systems, or memory size/bandwidth increasing in cards as performance does.

If this overhead is GPU bound, and scales with TFLOPS, then in handheld mode we should expect overhead to be a larger chunk of frametime, leaving less time for upscaling. This matches my initial, naive number crunching, where DLSS tends to fall apart at the bottom of the curve.

If this overhead is CPU bound, then we're in great shape, because we're not expecting CPU to change between modes. This would explain models that expect DLSS to be much much slower in TV mode than handheld mode - not because those models were correct, but because they were skewed by a non-constant overhead that wasn't properly accounted for.

If this overhead is bound by memory in some way, then it's a little up in the air what will happen, as it's unclear if Nintendo would choose to change the memory clock between the two modes for battery life purposes.

It's impossible to create "perfect scaling" between handheld and TV modes, there will always be games that prefer one environment over the other. Just scaling the GPU and screen tends to favor handheld mode slightly. More elaborate power saving strategies (altering storage or memory bandwidth) tends to favor TV mode. This isn't just true for DLSS, it's true for software as a whole. But DLSS remains a less-well-understood factor in the whole scheme.

Side note: this also potentially shows an area where Nvidia really could tune DLSS for the Switch.


Yeah, I've stated in the past that I expect a 1080p screen, and personally would love a 1080p screen if the performance in handheld mode is right. Where I bristle is the idea that this is a clear win in IQ regardless of perf, which it isn't.

I understand the decision, and that for many players a 1080p screen for Nintendo games with bad image quality for 3rd party games is the preferred compromise. Where I get admittedly tetchy is being told by those players that the compromise doesn't exist.


I see what you're getting at, but I think you're misstating what I'm trying to say. My assertion is "as much as possible games should look equally good in both docked and handheld play, without significant extra work." The PS4 port example is just to demonstrate how a 1080p screen on a 1.3 TFLOPS device would fail that test. The industry has coalesced around a rough performance standard for "1080p content" which is built around PBR rendering, the last gen consoles, and 2018-2019 graphics cards. There is a reason that the Steam Deck also does not have a 1080p screen.

In docked mode, you can run your existing 1080p content, and it will look great, because 1080p content scales perfectly on a 4k screen and REDACTED has more than enough power for the industry's de-facto 1080p standard. You can take that extra power, use it to run DLSS, and now you have a 4k upscaled image. And if you have next gen content, you can target sub-1080p and upscale to 1080p, which again will at least integer scale on the 4k screen.

In 1080p handheld, you don't have enough power to run your 1080p content, so you need to make image sacrifices, possibly running 720p and getting scaling artifacts. You can bump that down to 540p and use DLSS to get back to where you started, resolution and settings wise. And if you have a miracle port, you're using something like ultra-performance mode DLSS, or starting from a base resolution sub 540p and scaling up to 720p, adding scaling artifacts on top.

The only games which would benefit from such an arrangement are games which are bespoke to the console and can afford to really dial in the two modes almost as separate projects (Nintendo games) and games which don't push the graphics sufficiently hard to have trouble running at native res in handheld mode. This upsets both the engineer and the gamer in me.

That doesn't mean it's a wrong decision for Nintendo, or that there won't be players who prefer it - I think there is a decent chunk of folks who would love a higher res game UI even if the visuals were slightly muddier. It also wouldn't be the first time Nintendo made a decision about a handheld screen that made backward compatible games look like ass :)

But I'll take the backwards compat shittiness! I'll take the 1080p screen! Just... don't do it for the marketing number, give me the performance that comes along with it.

Honestly I've completely ignored the RTX 2080 laptop numbers. Advertised clock speeds for laptop GPUs are vague suggestions at best, and the actual clock speed that the GPU was running at will depend on the configurable TDP chosen by the manufacturer, the quality of the cooling system, the quality of the power delivery system, the ambient room temperature, whether it's part of a long or short test run, etc., etc. Without knowing what clock the test was running at (even if it was stable) the number is impossible to interpret.

I don't think that discounts the other figures they provide, though, as there are enough desktop GPUs there with predictable clocks that we can use to make estimates. Even just the four Ampere GPUs give us a decent amount to work with.

I agree that there's likely some kind of fixed overhead in there, but I don't think it would be a major factor on a GPU as small as T239's, just by proportion to the overall DLSS computation time. The T239 GPU is, after all, going to have to spend a lot longer to do the raw computational grunt work of DLSS that any of the GPUs we're looking at, so a fixed overhead of (say) 0.1ms will have a much smaller effect on the few ms that T239 takes to run DLSS vs the few tenths of a ms that a big desktop GPU takes.

Incidentally, I've been looking at the numbers again, and I think there's a slightly different way to look at it than I have been before. Rather than trying to project curves back to T239's performance levels, we can just look at it in terms of three factors which determine performance, and try to estimate what they are:
  1. DLSS will sometimes be bottlenecked by raw compute performance
  2. DLSS will sometimes be bottlenecked by memory bandwidth
  3. DLSS has some kind of fixed overhead independent of GPU compute performance or bandwidth
To investigate this, I've taken the in-game clock speeds reported by Tom's Hardware reviews of FE editions of each of the cards, which are typically about 10% higher than the advertised boost clocks, and used those to calculate the FP16 tensor core performance of each card (without sparsity), rather than use the official figures, to get a more accurate representation of real-world performance. Memory bandwidth is a bit simpler, though, so I've used official figures there (tests on my own RTX 3070 indicates that it hits this consistently).

I've produced some graphs from this data. On the left is the DLSS pixels generated per Tflop of FP16 tensor performance graphed against the total FP16 tensor performance. On the right is the DLSS pixels generated per GB of memory bandwidth graphed against the total GB/s of memory bandwidth.

ampere-dlss-perf-tests.png


The RTX 3060 Ti and RTX 3070 have the same memory bandwidth, so their numbers are overlapping in the right graph. Let's look at the same graphs, but add a constant fixed overhead of 0.1ms into the model:

ampere-dlss-perf-tests-with-fixed-cost.png


Suddenly everything's much more tightly grouped. The RTX 3060Ti and RTX 3070 are particularly interesting here. In the performance per Tflop measure, the 3060Ti comes out on top, but in the performance per GB, the 3070 is higher. This would suggest that the 3060Ti is more compute-limited, whereas the 3070 is more bandwidth-limited. Which is pretty much what we'd expect with the 3060Ti having a much higher BW to Tflops ratio than the 3070, but I think it does indicate that DLSS can be bandwidth-limited. If it wasn't, we would probably see closer performance per Tflop figures for both cards.

Including a 0.1ms fixed overhead does give us much more consistent numbers in any case. For compute efficiency we get an average of 76,208 px/Tflop with a standard deviation of 2,353, and for bandwidth efficiency we get an average of 13,301 px/GB with a standard deviation of 943. Obviously we shouldn't expect these numbers to be constant, as cards could either be compute or bandwidth limited to varying degrees, but for the sake of argument, let's assume these averages hold for T239. So, with expected GPU clocks of 550MHz portable and 1.1GHz docked (which I know are higher than your estimates), with 76,208 px/Tflop and 0.1ms fixed overhead, for T239 we would get the following times for DLSS:

Code:
               Tensor Tflops    1080p ms    1440p ms    2160p ms
T239 Portable  6.76             4.13        7.26        16.20
T239 Docked    13.52            2.11        3.68        8.15

For memory bandwidth, let's assume 102GB/s in docked mode with 25GB/s for the CPU, and in portable 68GB/s with the same 25GB/s for the CPU. Then, with 13,301 px/GB and the same 0.1ms fixed overhead, we get:

Code:
               GB/s    1080p ms    1440p ms    2160p ms
T239 Portable  43      3.73        6.55        14.60
T239 Docked    77      2.12        3.70        8.20

Very close to the above in docked mode, but a bit better in portable due to the proportionally higher bandwidth.

Although using the average isn't necessarily strictly appropriate, the numbers we get don't change very much whether we take the max, min or average figures, and they do align pretty closely with my expectations. Specifically, that T239 is pretty much designed as a minimum viable product for DLSS in a games console. At 1080p/60fps portable, 1440p/60fps docked and 4K/30fps docked, DLSS comes in at just under 25% of the frame time. A quarter of the frame for DLSS is basically what I would have said as a cutoff for DLSS to be viable. Below that, and you're definitely getting a benefit in IQ over just rendering a higher resolution image natively, but if you go much over a quarter of the frame for DLSS there's a genuine argument to just pushing more pixels natively.

Of course there are the usual caveats to this. Firstly, I wouldn't necessarily expect the overhead to be the same on [redacted] as on a Windows PC. If the overhead is driver related, for example the Nvidia DX12 driver taking 0.1ms to allocate memory for DLSS, then there could be much less overhead on [redacted] with lower-level NVN2 drivers, and developers handling memory allocation directly. As I've said, though, I don't expect the overhead to have a big impact on [redacted] in any case.

Secondly, it's not necessarily the case that [redacted] games will use the same version of DLSS that PC games do. I'm sure the option would be available to them, but I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia also produced a kind of DLSS-lite for [redacted] devs, which reduces the number of parameters in the DLSS model to produce something which can run faster on lower end hardware at the expense of somewhat reduced image quality compared to full-fat DLSS. That may give developers a couple of extra milliseconds to play with in exchange for a bit of an IQ hit.

Another factor is that, as far as I'm aware, Ampere can run tensor core operations concurrently with standard graphics/compute workloads. Conceivably developers could start rendering the next frame while DLSS is running. This would add a few milliseconds of lag, and DLSS would be competing for bandwidth with the graphics work, but in theory may allow them to get a bit of extra performance compared to letting the non-tensor core hardware idle while DLSS is running.
 
Yeah, same. I just meant that “release” in the context of third party working on middleware could mean anything from “release to internal customers” (ie Nintendo) or “release to external customer” which could be anything from developers to consumers.


Grubb’s statements, at least, have been taken wildly out of context.

Grubb was asked if he thought there would be a Direct in June, he says he’s hearing the first rumblings of an event in July, but he doesn’t know if it’s a mini or a partner showcase or what.

It’s 100% clear that Grubb is talking about a Direct. And as for why anyone would be slightly cagey, it’s because last year a lot of folks heard about the June Direct, said it was coming and when it was a partner showcase, they got lambasted for being “wrong.” They know it’s a Direct formatted presentation, they don’t know which type, and since Nintendo changed it up last year, they don’t want the backlash.



Sure, it’s confirmation bias. Confirmation bias doesn’t mean your wrong :) Confirmation bias is just that - a bias, a tendency, to see data in a way that matches a pre-existing belief. That can include "these things seem connected."

You've been pretty clear in the past that you prefer optimism, because it's more fun. That's great. Other folks prefer pessimism, because it mitigates disappointment. That's also great. And there are a class of people who are more interested in the detective game, or playing Fantasy Console Designer.

Not speaking to you directly, but to the thread - other people's optimism/pessimism isn't a threat to yours. We can all have different standards to judge the same data by.
You have to remember that this entire place is for Nintendo enthusiast. It can be frustrating and grating to be in a place for people to come together and be excited for Nintendo products, to have others read their excitement and "rain on their parade".

I Yeah'd your post, because I agree that we are all entitled to our opinions, and some people prefer pessimism. People come to threads and forums like this to share our love for Nintendo. I read a post earlier about finding a personal relationship to a company weird...

There is a disconnect somewhere in this pessimism, the world doesn't fall apart if you get excited for something and it doesn't happen. Sure it can deflate excitement, but that is what speculation threads are for. Yes, everyone's opinions are valid, but there is a reason we are all here in this thread, and it's because we want to be excited for a new console. Even if we are cautious about it. Sorry, I am responding to the idea you are presenting, more than yourself. I enjoy your posts, and this one was no different, just wanted to remind everyone reading, that we are here because we are Nintendo fans.
 
Who's blaming anyone?
The current conversation is about some people not understanding others' impatience.
Expecting a new console after 7 years is hardly unreasonable anyway.
I don't know anyone who doesn't expect a new console here. We all do. The impatience I said I didn't understand, which doesn't include any moral judgment on my part, is about worrying more about the next hardware than the next games.

I find it interesting what you say about not wanting to play TOTK at the moment for technical reasons. That's exactly what I don't understand. And when I say I don't understand, that doesn't mean I disagree, it just means I sincerely don't understand.

Not having games, whether at the end of a life cycle like the Wii or at the launch of a console like the Wii U, would make me personally impatient. Having them but not wanting to play them is a personal choice. I can't imagine waiting for the 3DS release to play Ocarina because of the framerate, but that depends on one's sensibility.

My initial comment in the conversation was that my impatience was with games, whatever the hardware, so I would be incapable of depriving myself of TOTK for technical reasons, unless the finished product is unplayable, of course.
 
I expect a new console sooner rather than later.

I don't expect it to be announced until Nintendo start fully winding down Switch.

If I was still making bank off a 6 year old console, I'd ride it out as long as I could.

I stand firm in the 2024 camp.
 
Also it seems the Japanese Nintendo Direct page has been updated, which tends to precede a Direct.
If that's indeed a "classic" Direct it probably won't involve hardware but well.

No, that was a tweet in Japanese referring to the NA page being updated, which is already know. Man, misinformation can spread fast.
 
0
I don't know anyone who doesn't expect a new console here. We all do. The impatience I said I didn't understand, which doesn't include any moral judgment on my part, is about worrying more about the next hardware than the next games.

I find it interesting what you say about not wanting to play TOTK at the moment for technical reasons. That's exactly what I don't understand. And when I say I don't understand, that doesn't mean I disagree, it just means I sincerely don't understand.
I have both benefited from PS4-PS5 upgrades and played the definitive versions of games and saw games being upgraded and thought "Wish I was playing it for the first time now". I know that the relatively bad image quality and other technical issues will annoy me and "knowing" that within 18 month (not confirmed of course) I'll likely be able to play a masterpiece at a resolution that demonstrates it's beautiful art makes it a no-brainer. I'm happy to wait to have a better experience.
 
Sorry, I am responding to the idea you are presenting, more than yourself. I enjoy your posts, and this one was no different, just wanted to remind everyone reading, that we are here because we are Nintendo fans.
No, I totally get it! My point is that we are not all Nintendo fans in the same way, and that's worth acknowledging. This thread gets asked a lot "what we think." And I think it's best when we don't think any one thing.
 
While it could be confirmation bias, I do think these supposed connections are worth entertaining. Yes, Grubb's statement most likely points to a Direct, but it's still odd for a Direct to be held in July, especially with Pikmin 4 on the horizon. We've talked a lot on here about overshadowing other games with Directs and Pikmin could potentially suffer in this case, as it is more niche title compared to Zelda. Of course, it could be a Pikmin Direct, which I'd argue is even more likely.

But, let's entertain the idea that we may get a Switch 2 Digital Event in July, with an announcement this month and a Pikmin Direct somewhere in between. While the Pikmin Direct would be sandwiched between two major events, it'd still get some good mind share with it being month away, leading it to hopefully sell within expectations.

This is just what I believe could happen. I'm just trying to reconcile why Nintendo would hold some kind of presentation in July, when their shareholders meeting is this month. I could be overthinking this, but when your first half is stacked to the brim with games that could have been held back for the second half where it would help with declining hardware sales even a little bit, I can't help but wonder what Nintendo is planning.
 
With soo many ZOLED Switches on the shelves I still think it’s too early for the successor. But that empty H2 is giving me hope for the June Direct.
if Drake release is being determined now, then we aren't looking at a release until 3+ years from now. that doesn't correlate to anything we've seen unless all that's been tossed aside
 
With soo many ZOLED Switches on the shelves I still think it’s too early for the successor. But that empty H2 is giving me hope for the June Direct.
There’s something called “phase out”, which is what the OLED is doing to the OG Switch, and what the Switch 2 will do with the OG Switch lineup: phase it out
 
FFS @Thraktor put some effort into your posts.

Yeah, I was going to reply with a dank meme, but got lazy and posted that instead. I'll try harder in future.

While it could be confirmation bias, I do think these supposed connections are worth entertaining. Yes, Grubb's statement most likely points to a Direct, but it's still odd for a Direct to be held in July, especially with Pikmin 4 on the horizon. We've talked a lot on here about overshadowing other games with Directs and Pikmin could potentially suffer in this case, as it is more niche title compared to Zelda. Of course, it could be a Pikmin Direct, which I'd argue is even more likely.

But, let's entertain the idea that we may get a Switch 2 Digital Event in July, with an announcement this month and a Pikmin Direct somewhere in between. While the Pikmin Direct would be sandwiched between two major events, it'd still get some good mind share with it being month away, leading it to hopefully sell within expectations.

This is just what I believe could happen. I'm just trying to reconcile why Nintendo would hold some kind of presentation in July, when their shareholders meeting is this month. I could be overthinking this, but when your first half is stacked to the brim with games that could have been held back for the second half where it would help with declining hardware sales even a little bit, I can't help but wonder what Nintendo is planning.

I'm on the fence about whether it gets released this year, but if they were announcing in late June, then a Direct a few weeks later (ie in July) is exactly what I'd expect. I fully expect the initial announcement to be a short 3-4 minute video much like the original Switch announcement, which doesn't leave much room for details, and requires a follow-up event (ie a Direct) to act as the in-depth showcase for the games. With the Switch Nintendo waited 3 months for this, because they wanted to avoid hurting their Wii U and 3DS holiday sales, but if we're assuming a holiday 2023 release there's no reason for more than a couple of weeks of delay. I would also imagine they would roll up all the Switch announcements for H2 into the same Direct, because they'll all run on [redacted] anyway, and in the case of first party games may be cross-gen.

They'll also need to announce some games at some point in either June or July, lest they get past Pikmin's release and have only a single game on their public roadmap, particularly with that game being Metroid Prime 4, which they've barely mentioned in years. Whether they're announcing new hardware or not, they'll need something in the next month or so.
 
If they had games they'd have shown them by now... So the Direct page being updated... Gives me great hope... For a new console generation.
 
that sucks......

redacted port.....
Is that person even credible?
No

That person has no previous track
No, but I think the Wario guy put some 👀 on this post on Resetera, so….
I don't know anyone who doesn't expect a new console here. We all do. The impatience I said I didn't understand, which doesn't include any moral judgment on my part, is about worrying more about the next hardware than the next games.

I find it interesting what you say about not wanting to play TOTK at the moment for technical reasons. That's exactly what I don't understand. And when I say I don't understand, that doesn't mean I disagree, it just means I sincerely don't understand.
I’ll put it this way: it’s an open world game and replaying that again is not a thing I do. Open world games have one chance to wow me because I know myself enough that if I play it again I’ll drop it only 20% of the way through.

I still remember them a lot a year or even 2 years later especially if they are unique and leave a positive impression, so the next possible time I’d feel the itch to actually replay them is not anytime soon. Years later maybe.

I put a lot of time into BOTW, and while the game is amazing, I have no desire whatsoever to return to it right now despite it being years after I played it. Not even for a replay. It left a positive impression and it’s still fresh to where I remember the feeling.

So, if I want to give TOTK justice, I’ll just wait for what would end up being the shorter timeframe knowing myself.





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I’ll put it this way: it’s an open world game and replaying that again is not a thing I do. Open world games have one chance to wow me because I know myself enough that if I play it again I’ll drop it only 20% of the way through.

I still remember them a lot a year or even 2 years later especially if they are unique and leave a positive impression, so the next possible time I’d feel the itch to actually replay them is not anytime soon. Years later maybe.

I put a lot of time into BOTW, and while the game is amazing, I have no desire whatsoever to return to it right now despite it being years after I played it. Not even for a replay. It left a positive impression and it’s still fresh to where I remember the feeling.

So, if I want to give TOTK justice, I’ll just wait for what would end up being the shorter timeframe knowing myself.
I totally understand. The lifespan of these games is so long, and you get so invested in them, that it's good to move on to something else afterwards. This is something I also felt with Mario Odyssey, even though I regularly replay 3D World, for example, with great pleasure.

I think it has to do with the fact that the content of these games is so gargantuan that it needs to be digested. It's probably too soon, even after 6 years. But I think that in a few years' time, not right away, people will be clamoring for 4K remasters of the Switch's Zeldas, juste like they do with TP/WW remasters nox. We just need to let the whole thing rest for a few more years.
 
I am a Nintendo fan, but there's a lot bigger Nintendo fans on this site. I could happily keep gaming on my Switch this year, and next year, and the year after that because of my enormous backlog of indies. I'm looking forward to new hardware but won't be a day 1 buyer because I lack the finances, but I don't mind because there'll be support for the Switch for a while yet.
 
I can’t tell you the number of tasks I left in games for me to go back to on a “pro” the last 3 years
I’ve 90%’d a lot of games

(I’ve even left a lot of TOTK undone just in case)
 
I think the frustration comes from fans who are hyper aware of the fact that nintendo risks a repeat of a WiiU/3DS flop if they learned the wrong lessons from the switch's success just like how they learned the wrong lessons from the Wii's success and NDS's success.
 
I think the frustration comes from fans who are hyper aware of the fact that nintendo risks a repeat of a WiiU/3DS flop if they learned the wrong lessons from the switch's success just like how they learned the wrong lessons from the Wii's success and NDS's success.
I think my biggest issue is for as much talk of change Nintendo has done the last 10 years … it’s frustrating to see them not do anything different.
Another issue is that any 3rd project started the last 3 years are essentially not coming to a Nintendo console… for one reason or another and not updating your platform when it’s not even half as powerful as other platforms is a way to continue the cycle we’ve had to live in since the Wii and arguably the n64 days … frankly I think a lot of people are sick of Nintendo platforms being an afterthought
 
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