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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
NateDrake said:
I know a fair amount of stuff on this coming successor but what I know may not be enough to warrant any reporting/sharing on. I can't just say random things in this thread and give weekly updates if something changes. I need to wait for things to form a solid foundation and then weigh the potential of internal delays or plan shifts -- which always happen.

Many of the details I have now are still preliminary and subject to change before being finalized.
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We'll take any crumbs whatsoever, we're not proud here.
 
Pokemaniac said:
As usual, I'm somewhat perplexed that this briefing has changed people's positions at all. Like, it's pretty intentionally engineered not to answer the question of when they're releasing new hardware.
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Exactly.

I know I'm many pages too late but I'm still lagging on page 1099 😅

I have a long reading journey ahead.
 
As a Nintendo investor, I am extremely disappointed. I was talking with some other investors and we all were disappointed with the meeting. I and many others made it known we support the movement for new leadership. No new hardware this fiscal year is a massive mistake and I think the global economic climate will shift toward the worse by late 2024 essentially neutering any hardware launch past Q4 2023. Lack of solid plan regarding cloud and mobile also factors. The revenue from the Mario movie is nice and I like their support/willingness to explore more in that space so it wasn't all bad. Despite shareholders whining, Nobody is gonna sell and nothing is going to happen to Furukawa. I will continue to criticize upon deaf ears however lol
 
NateDrake said:
Would depend on the question.
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On a more serious note (sorry for the joke question); We all know that Nintendo's of course releasing more games after Pikmin 4 this year, and apart from the F-ZERO project you mentioned a while back, are you aware of the identity of those games? Personally, I'm hoping for a new Mario Party game myself.
And to go further on your comment that you expect to see Prime 4 in this FY, I assume that means we should see it by September at the latest?
 
ziggyrivers said:
I’m still waiting in that mobile Zelda game :<

Also:



This looks like a REDACTED game 👀
Click to expand...


I know some idiots who plunged into Nintendo stock after the success of Pokemon Go only to find out Nintendo doesn't own the pokemon IP outright. My decision to buy more shares will never be influenced by Pokemon/gamefreak happenings.
 
DJBass88 said:
As a Nintendo investor, I am extremely disappointed. I was talking with some other investors and we all were disappointed with the meeting. I and many others made it known we support the movement for new leadership. No new hardware this fiscal year is a massive mistake and I think the global economic climate will shift toward the worse by late 2024 essentially neutering any hardware launch past Q4 2023. Lack of solid plan regarding cloud and mobile also factors. The revenue from the Mario movie is nice and I like their support/willingness to explore more in that space so it wasn't all bad. Despite shareholders whining, Nobody is gonna sell and nothing is going to happen to Furukawa. I will continue to criticize upon deaf ears however lol
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I legit can't tell if you're being serious or not, because this kinda reads like a shitpost.
 
ziggyrivers said:
I’m still waiting in that mobile Zelda game :<

Also:



This looks like a REDACTED game 👀
Click to expand...

Gamefreak render just leaked:

spring-summer-night-forest-horizontal-260nw-1561631752.jpg
 
LoneRanger said:
Well, so we have to wait until next spring, an April/May launch is pausible as they can announced new HW after next holidays (like january) and have 4-5 months to market the new machine.

Launch with 3D EPD Tokyo, new Mario Kart in holidays.

COD and some other big third party titles.
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This does not seem likely. Imagine advertising as shiny new console that literally does everything much better, right after the audience opened their Christmas presents that has the predecessor.

This Quarter will be their second biggest this FY due to the Zelda OLED.

Q3 will need about 7.5M and the other three quarters have to average 2.5M for them to hit the 15M target.


If they announce it January, then Q4 will be incredibly dire. Post Christmas shopping is at a low in January, not a high.



Also, no to CoD. Unless it’s digital only as a release and they try to do any level of optimization and compression for storage. Otherwise I don’t really see it.

LukasManak22 said:
If they are not launching in March, how possible is May/June launch? At that point it seems like Holiday 2024 launch better sense than late May/June.
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Very little.

Unless they forecast down at the November briefing for the 6 month update.

Otherwise? Very little.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Anyway, time for me to get my hopes up again about DLSS 4.0 and UFS 4.0 coming to the Switch 2, let's do this, baby.
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What would DLSS4 even do 😛, the way you described it before seems like it’s just DLSS3. But tbh, DLSS3 can be further improved I feel in a way that makes 30 to 60 reasonable.





Also where are people(this is in general) getting this “it probably is on a newer node” nonsense from, Nintendo could choose to literally stay on 8N for all they care because it would sell and could be because they are cheaper in the development sense.


and over 90% of the people especially here don’t give af about performance. They grew up with 20FPS Zelda for crying out loud
ziggyrivers said:
Click to expand...

I’m sorry, this isn’t directed at you, but this is literally a bygone era that doesn’t exist anymore. The Iwata era is over and there’s a new leader in charge, Furukawa. Furukawa has helmed this differently and is very different from the former. Relying on actions from decades ago to try to clamor onto anything right now is futile and it is ultimately irrelevant.

Hermii said:
AFAIK that was never supposed to have a custom SOC.
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It was, iirc there’s a lot about it in the giga leak and it was very deep in development but because nvidia couldn’t deliver a thermally efficient product Nintendo looked elsewhere. Part of me suspects that, Nintendo wanted them to make something without actually paying to have it on a more efficient node and when it didn’t pan out because nvidia couldn’t move heaven and earth for what Nintendo wanted, Nintendo said “I’ll be leaving”

And that part of me also suspects that it can happen again with T239, off the chance that Nintendo wants a very strict power and thermal budget from what isn’t feasible in a reasonable fashion, and they can move elsewhere if they didn’t find T239 adequate because they wanted Nvidia to play literal God and bend the laws of physics.

Because they don’t want to pay the fee to make it to a more efficient design. :p



I should add because I feel like people will ignore it, but emphasis on the words that relate to “maybe”, “perhaps”, “possibly” etc.

These aren’t definitive statements, it’s just a guess.
Tentacle-tropes said:
I don’t think you can cancel a chip if the provider in question was rumoured to not be able to deliver on the chip in question.
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It wasn’t canceled, just repurposed. I believe it was the Tegra 2 or the Tegra 3i. Was supposed to be in the 3DS, but failed.
 
DJBass88 said:
As a Nintendo investor, I am extremely disappointed. I was talking with some other investors and we all were disappointed with the meeting. I and many others made it known we support the movement for new leadership. No new hardware this fiscal year is a massive mistake and I think the global economic climate will shift toward the worse by late 2024 essentially neutering any hardware launch past Q4 2023. Lack of solid plan regarding cloud and mobile also factors. The revenue from the Mario movie is nice and I like their support/willingness to explore more in that space so it wasn't all bad. Despite shareholders whining, Nobody is gonna sell and nothing is going to happen to Furukawa. I will continue to criticize upon deaf ears however lol
Click to expand...

From an investor standpoint I thought it was a pretty shitty showing. I want to see it in English but hearing selling 15m Switchs is a stretch (which is no surprise, I knew they would aim high and I know 100% they will revise down in Q3 likely). I don't think they need new leadership but I do think they are being naive about what could be achieved profit wise if they stopped fucking around and feeling like they are invincible during this generational shift.

I don't think the economic situation in the next 18 months will be so dire that they will struggle to sell units though.
 
invwar said:
Q4 23 or more likely Q1 24. MP1 was start of the marketing campaign. 1 year max, otherwise the whole effect was for nothing.
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pretty sure they released prime remastered to sell prime remastered, not some marketing gimmick to hype up Prime 4, if prime 4 does release within the next 12 months, it would more be a happy coincident than some master strategy
 
DJBass88 said:
As a Nintendo investor, I am extremely disappointed. I was talking with some other investors and we all were disappointed with the meeting. I and many others made it known we support the movement for new leadership. No new hardware this fiscal year is a massive mistake and I think the global economic climate will shift toward the worse by late 2024 essentially neutering any hardware launch past Q4 2023. Lack of solid plan regarding cloud and mobile also factors. The revenue from the Mario movie is nice and I like their support/willingness to explore more in that space so it wasn't all bad. Despite shareholders whining, Nobody is gonna sell and nothing is going to happen to Furukawa. I will continue to criticize upon deaf ears however lol
Click to expand...
This is about where I’m at as an investor as well, I agree with most you have to say (although I think Furukawa is fine) and think it’s very poor planning to have thought they could ride on the switch for this long and still consider it to be an acceptable transition.
A good transition would be to have the thing announced by this point and either to have come out or be coming out this year with a handful of cross platform games and exclusives enticing tons of people to pull the trigger on the new system but to also re-invigorate the switch ecosystem with people who aren’t keen on the bigger price tag of the new model but are happy enough to still buy in and get some new shiny games on the original device.
 
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SpaceGodzilla said:
pretty sure they released prime remastered to sell prime remastered, not some marketing gimmick to hype up Prime 4, if prime 4 does release within the next 12 months, it would more be a happy coincident than some master strategy
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Why would they randomly release a game directly tied to its sequel that’s also coming during the same calendar year (up until now)?
 
As not a Nintendo Investor I feel like it‘s a really dumb idea to replace the leadership who literally made the company the most profitable ever, had its best release weekend of a Nintendo game just a few months ago, a movie that just made over 1 billion at the box office and a highly anticipated likely to be 25+ Million Seller soon releasing. But I don‘t have money, so what do I know.
 
SirShorse said:
On a more serious note (sorry for the joke question); We all know that Nintendo's of course releasing more games after Pikmin 4 this year, and apart from the F-ZERO project you mentioned a while back, are you aware of the identity of those games? Personally, I'm hoping for a new Mario Party game myself.
And to go further on your comment that you expect to see Prime 4 in this FY, I assume that means we should see it by September at the latest?
Click to expand...

I do know of unannounced stuff slated for this year.

I'd suspect we see Prime 4 by no later than September of this yr, if the FY remains the intended target. If the game moves beyond that, then they could opt to hold it for an early 2024 Direct.

SpaceGodzilla said:
is this based on stuff you heard or speculation?
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The former with minor speculation tossed in.
 
Cybergatuno said:
I agree Nintendo was divided in the Wii U/3DS era. Any 3DS game wouldn't look good on Wii U without a major overhaul.
But we're not there anymore.

Nintendo has been publishing 12-20 titles every year in the Switch era and will continue to do so. They probably have a very good outline of major titles for the next 5 years. They have commissioned their development, either internally or through external teams.

They probably have 20-30 double-A titles currently in full production. Some may release this year, some in 3 years. They will use those to fill gaps in the schedule, sitting on them for years if need be, even if they have to patch them for newer hardware.

They've been developing games for over 40 years. They know what a software cycle is. Whatever lineup the next hardware has was planned half a decade ago. Whatever lineup the Switch 3 will have is being outlined right now.

It's on a game-by-game basis from now on. Does your game need updated hardware to fully realize your vision? Make it Switch 2 exclusive. Did you start development targeting the OG Switch? Keep going and make use of that 125+M install base, while still running better on new hardware.

Nintendo is looking way ahead. And judging by the Switch lineup in these 7 years, they've been doing so for more than a decade.
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You missed the point that I was getting at, Nintendo’s biggest issue with the next system is not the PlayStation 5 or the Xbox series, Nintendo’s biggest issue with the Nintendo Switch successor is the Nintendo switch.

It is their biggest enemy and the biggest difficulty in transitioning from one to the other. The 3DS started with a very weak first party at launch despite having a solid amount of third party, that they had to kill two other systems, and another one had to be forcibly be put down because of its rampant piracy to help kick-off the 3DS from the ground. Some Wii games were moved to the 3DS in order to give it life, eg Kid Icarus Uprising.

If Nintendo has a very heavy amount of titles with the Nintendo switch, they will end up having. a lighter amount of titles for the Nintendo switch 2. If they. If they have a lighter amount of titles for the Nintendo switch, they have a heavier amount of titles for the Nintendo Switch 2, but at the detriment of killing the Nintendo switch earlier than expected, and that has its own effect on the successor.

Nintendo‘s biggest hurdle, like I said, is the Nintendo Switch, and how to overcome it in the most balanced way possible. Sony went through this and they’ve managed to do it perfectly and they’re selling much better because the balance the first party from the third-party. They are a third party driven platform so it worked out well with their end. Microsoft, on the other hand has not been having a great success with this, and we see how they have been going it down, not up, Year over Year. Why? Because they literally don’t have anything to give out to their players, that are of note.

Nintendo is very strongly first party driven, the balance is very different from the other two, henceforth: This is a very difficult balancing act, Nintendo is quite literally living in “the biggest enemy is thyself”

This sounds more dramatic than what I want it to, but it’s the issue they will face.

The Nintendo Switch.

A company with 40 years of gaming experience and yet has had hits and misses in the hardware cycles. Over and over.


Nintendo isn’t guaranteed a hit every single time, and that’s because of their own doing.
ziggyrivers said:
Oh, yes it is 😅

By the way:

Click to expand...

This makes less sense considering that the forecast is too high if there is new hardware this FY (there is not imo). If they announce it, the switch will tank and they can kiss that PS2 number goodbye.


The number should be about, like, 9-12M, not 15M, if they plan to release anything this year.
 
fwd-bwd said:
Some of the more negative reactions from the investors and enthusiasts seem stemmed from the downbeat financial forecast of FY03/2024. I'd like to refresh people's memory that when it comes to forecasts, Nintendo tends to play possum in the beginning of an FY. See their forecast for FY22 (right column):
HBVzj4X.png


Their actual FY22 numbers (left column) beat the forecast handily:
5ma4w4f.png


As for the FY23 forecast (see above; right column), Nintendo copied their own homework from the year before, and gave the exact same forecast. Wouldn't you know it, in FY23 both the actual ordinary profit and net profit (below; left column) comfortably beat the forecast again:
gDoe03J.png


So despite all the talk about "stretching" to meet the FY24 forecast, history suggests that these are likely lowball numbers, and Nintendo might have some hardware/software tricks up their sleeve to help them achieve that.
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You give me hope, sire.
 
New trailer for Tears of the Kingdom includes a new tagline for the console.

"Play, connect."

Rather than

"Anytime, anywhere, with anyone."

I think it's possible "Play, connect" will be the tagline used across the generational transition.
 
Concernt said:
New trailer for Tears of the Kingdom includes a new tagline for the console.

"Play, connect."

Rather than

"Anytime, anywhere, with anyone."

I think it's possible "Play, connect" will be the tagline used across the generational transition.
Click to expand...
Wonder if it has any relation to strengthening the social aspect of the Switch
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you mentioned you've only heard the next Fire Emblem remake is coming to the current Switch.

Do you believe there's a chance this could mirror 2017 where Shadows of Valentia released only on 3DS after the launch of the switch or do you anticipate this title to be out well before the new hardware is? If the successor is holiday 2024 like I'm anticipating I could see this FE fill out a month in the run up to a new generation just curious how you see it shaking out

EDIT: def hit reply on that Nate post oh well
 
LoneRanger said:
Well, so we have to wait until next spring, an April/May launch is pausible as they can announced new HW after next holidays (like january) and have 4-5 months to market the new machine.

Launch with 3D EPD Tokyo, new Mario Kart in holidays.

COD and some other big third party titles.
Click to expand...
COD won't happen until the ActiBliz deal is sorted out at least, and quite possibly won't unless Microsoft wins as I doubt Switch ports are easy
 
Concernt said:
New trailer for Tears of the Kingdom includes a new tagline for the console.

"Play, connect."

Rather than

"Anytime, anywhere, with anyone."

I think it's possible "Play, connect" will be the tagline used across the generational transition.
Click to expand...

I'm gonna laugh if it turns out I guessed this out of sheer luck.

TomNookYankees said:
Naming it the switch pro would just lead to confusion about whether or not it's their next generation of hardware after so many years of Switch Pro rumors. They'll probably just pick an entirely new name based on whatever the new gimmick it has is that they advertise on (If the gimmick they focus on is 5G they'll call it the Nintendo Connect, if the gimmick is AR they'll call it the Nintendo Reality, etc) but also make sure to list backwards compatibility on the feature list and during the presentation wherein they specify what games are coming to it.
Click to expand...
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
That’s what I’m getting at in the comment. The cancellation would imply a Nintendo commission which didn’t happen.
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We don’t actually know how it went down.

But it got very far along in the 3DS development.
Superstarxalien said:
questiom why is a $300 switch 2 out of the question, everyone here assumes it'll be 350 at the absolute minimum
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Because inflation.

And it’s 400, not 350.
 
Superstarxalien said:
questiom why is a $300 switch 2 out of the question, everyone here assumes it'll be 350 at the absolute minimum
Click to expand...
Because A.a hefty powerleap is guranteed and B.Inflation, 300 in 2017 is 370 today

It's better to expect higher then lower, so many predicted the switch would be $250 and sold at a loss and were mad when 300
 
Superstarxalien said:
questiom why is a $300 switch 2 out of the question, everyone here assumes it'll be 350 at the absolute minimum
Click to expand...

  • Nintendo is still selling the OLED for $350 and the switch regular for $300.
  • Many are suspecting $400 because that would approximately line up with the inflation adjusted price they have launched past consoles
  • Nintendo is very unlikely to sell their hardware at a net loss
 
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