If Redacted launches late this year and performs as well as Switch, the best case scenario for end 2025 is still probably a userbase of 40 million and annual software sales slightly better than half of what Switch is doing now. As long as not all the people who haven't upgraded yet also haven't thrown away their old Switch, there should be a non-negligible market to cater to that will help Nintendo from taking such a big backslide from current numbers.
They can give us one and a half years of crossgen support and the other one and a half years are simpler gamers like ports and remasters.
Yeah, the people over at Rockstar must be busy between GTA6 and Online
You’ll be in Team 2024 then haha. I doubt Nintendo will say anything in the Investors Meeting. It’ll most certainly be something vague or non direct
I doubt they’ll officially announce that they’re going to release a new hardware for this, or any, Fiscal Year. They did it with the Switch because of how floppy the Wii U was. With the Switch, they have little to no incentive. We will get anything official when the marketing campaign starts
I’m #Team2023, but I’ll present counter-arguments for the sake of being critical:
Granted, but the Switch is selling comfortably in hardware and sales. They could launch March 2024 with no problem
All focus is on TOTK, their biggest video game. They can make a June Direct and reveal what they have in stock. Plus we already have some third party titles for the second half
Production could start later, as in, later release
The issue is lack of strong leaks
Yea. Just think how 3DS eshop only stopped now and been out since 2011.
They could maaaybe say they are nearing the Switch’s last years in the life cycle, but if directly asked about a successor, they’ll just say that they are always looking into new ways to build upon what the Switch adds to the consumers’ expectations.
If asked about another Mario Movie or other IPs, they’ll just say they’re always interested in expanding the ways customers enjoy their products
It's because it's a short marketing cycle, there aren't any 3rd party related leaks, while insiders are continuing to talk about unannounced Switch titles.
Great news (not for TSMC/Samsung of course).
Well it's May, and there's been no real indication that anything is happening on the hardware front. So either you believe that Nintendo has kept an amazing lid on all of this, which is almost impossible to believe at this point as dev kits would have been with 3rd parties and lower level devs for a long time now. Similarly launch games should be in some level of QA at this point, which should also be a typical point of leaks.
There are rumors that AMD may be moving some production to SEC 4nm because TSMC 5nm is "full", but I do not find these reports at all credible. Which is not to say I don't believe AMD will use SEC 4nm, but I doubt a lack of 5nm TSMC capacity is the reason.
Has Sony ever bothered to shut down leaks?
I used to think we wouldn't see this device until 2025, so if the lack of leaks right now are any indication........
Storage is the problem, GCN games can be like 3.5GB, Wii games can be roughly 7GB, if Drake has 512GB of onboard storage I can see them doing GCN but not Wii, if it has at least 1TB, then I can see them doing both... but I expect it to have 256GB at best, Nintendo has always been stingy with onboard storage.
Let's not forget the fact that ALL Switch models leaked in it's FW literally YEARS before they released, even the OLED, so a Switch Pro, this year, would be impossible, it'd either be coming late 2025 or later or not at all. So whether Drake releases this, next, on 2025 or even after or not, there is no Switch Pro coming anytime soon.
Alright so what leaks point to this holiday rather than, say, early next year?
Nintendo typically doesn't do hardware releases early in the year unless something goes wrong.
We've had the factory leaks where they are working on production. We've had the Nvidia leak that shows that they should have a chip ready for production. We've had multiple insiders allude to new hardware coming soon.
Like what? We had an Nvidia hack, and then Digital Foundry(and Nate after) telling us something was cancelled. It's otherwise been dead quiet. No journalists have corroborated anything we think we know. Nate completely backed off his own hardware rumors at the end of last year when Digital Foundry did their reporting. The few journalists that have even spoken on the idea of new hardware have been indicating it's further out.
Not the point???
Okay so the same things that led to people thinking it was coming earlier this year. These leaks lack standing now because of how quiet it has been(essentially what Instro is saying) and based on what those "multiple insiders" have said. There's not really anything substantial (yet) that is convincingly pointing to the end of this year. It's very much up in the air. But we aren't far away from getting something substantial if in fact it is coming this holiday.
The point is it's a pretty odd prompt. You're kind of assuming a delay.
This logic does not compute to me. It’s quiet now so things we heard before are now invalid?
If you walk the daisy chain of "sloppy reporting based on another sloppy outlet's reporting" it all comes back to a chip leaker who this thread actively performed a debunking operation on, by sending them a false leak and watching them post it immediately. OreXda, the "leaker" in question seems to publish literally anything sent to them, with no verification, and regardless of source.
You're talking about hardware related leaks, and hacks. We're referring to devkit related leaks. The difference matters.
The cake is a lie. 2023 isn’t.
?
But we already got Portal on Switch.
This is what I fully expect
I'm literally asking the dude to just defend his position with examples. Like what are you even on about lol.
Yeah yeah I want to be clear I'm not saying you are wrong to think this year is possible. It becomes more unlikely as time passes but we've yet to pass the line of it being impossible. My point was kinda what you're saying too haha.
Ah right, I misremembered the GCN game disks size. In any case, those are the ones that have the least problems because their smaller size and amount of games. As for Wii games, I was checking and disks were either 4.7GB or 8.5GB, so maybe we could get both NSO if we get 256GB of storage... I am not sure if most Wii games could be compressed to use less than 4.7GB, if they can, maybe we could get up to 25 of them in less than 100GB of storage, though it'd still be quite a lot of required space. Ideally Nintendo will give us 512GB of storage, that'd fix any issue and allow for both consoles on the service, but who knows? They may cut costs there and give us 128GB, though at least it should allow us to have the GCN NSO I think.
I mean, it’s not like Nintendo gives us all the NES, SNES, N64, GB/C, GBA games right now anyway
I know, but imagine having 20 Wii (only counting those that used 4.7GB disks) games on the service after 4 years... that'd eat a good chunk of the internal storage.I mean, it’s not like Nintendo gives us all the NES, SNES, N64, GB/C, GBA games right now anyway
Nintendo isn't going to cut off western devs from the closest circle. Most of the best support come out of the west after all
And Next Level, since both are Nintendo owned studios.
