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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Hocot8 said:
I'm literally asking the dude to just defend his position with examples. Like what are you even on about lol.
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Put another way, with Nintendo's historical release schedules, between fall and the following spring, the burden of evidence is more on the spring side. It's seemingly never Nintendo's first choice, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to give it the benefit of the doubt.
 
mjayer said:
The cake is a lie. 2023 isn’t.
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I mean if you wanna go full optimism, more power to you! No judgement. But you started out asking how anyone could believe 2024, I tried to explain. There is 2023 smoke, but it's hardly definitive.
 
Hocot8 said:
I'm literally asking the dude to just defend his position with examples. Like what are you even on about lol.
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Hocot8 said:
I treat people rudely who I think are rude, especially those who talk down to others. I don't really care if you don't like it. I thanked someone for a summary because I have adhd which makes it fucking hard to go through whatever is in the OP lmao. And it's ironic that you want to talk about someone being easily triggered but go off.
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Ironic.

Life tip: if you don’t want rude responses, don’t be passive aggressive yourself.
 
TonyBaduy said:
I sure hope they find a way to do it, I also sure hope they give us more than 128GB, otherwise we can kiss goodbye to games like CoD or GTA, which would only help the platform.
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Well, I wasn’t expecting those anyway. 🤭

But every other large third party game might be an issue. Games from like EA, CapCom, Square Enix, CD Projekt, etc, would have high sizes I think.


Edit: though in the case of Jedi Fallen Order, that might be due to how it wasn’t properly optimized, so who knows?
 
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Goodtwin said:
Probably. Maybe a few trusted developers within Japan, but I doubt any western developers have dev kits yet, outside of Retro Studios of course. I think once the new hardware is announced, dev kits will start shipping in mass. People have to remember that most third party titles will just be ports of PS4 games. With the specs Drake has, porting PS4 games to Redacted will take months not years. The library of games doesn't need to be very big at launch, they will sell out of the first 3-5 million units even if there isn't a single third party titles available at launch.
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This isn't feasible. It takes a lot longer than a few months to port a game, even on mature hardware. For new hardware, this is a longer process. What you're suggesting would harken back to some of the worst 3rd party decisions/communications Nintendo has made. Publishers need to be able to fit the new hardware into their dev pipeline, devs need time to test their engines and tools, provide feedback on the environment, etc.

Providing dev kits that late would ensure very limited support for the platform during it's first year of life, and kneecap potential future support for years to come.
 
oldpuck said:
It's because it's a short marketing cycle, there aren't any 3rd party related leaks, while insiders are continuing to talk about unannounced Switch titles.

In October of 2015, the WSJ did initial reporting on the NX's hybrid nature. That report speculated a lot and inaccurately, but the core claim was "devs working with devkits say they're having to support some sort of handheld mode" which was accurate. This was a year in advance of Nintendo's planned launch, and was a clear indication that Nintendo had started to line up launch and post-launch support.

Nothing of the kind has emerged in the last six months. I've often said that "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." But extraordinary claims also require extraordinary proof. "Uncharted territory", the short marketing timeline, and known/reliably rumored future Switch releases don't rule out a 2023 launch, but they do make a 2023 launch extraordinary.

The Official Oldpuck Prediction(tm) is, jokingly, leap day next year. Unofficially, I'll say that Nintendo is clearly in Uncharted Territory, objectively speaking, and so I don't trust Patterns, and I don't think there is enough Data to speculate.
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To play devil's advocate, if Nintendo released [redacted] this year, people would be talking about the 2021 Bloomberg "4K Switch" reporting in the same way we're talking about WSJ's 2015 "hybrid" NX article.

I think part of the issue is that we have so little data altogether. We don't have any developer leaks about new hardware, but we also have remarkably few developer leaks at all. Outside of Nintendo's 3 (soon to be 2) announced games, the only other Nintendo title we reliably know is in development is the Fire Emblem remake, which iirc was datamined. Outside of that we have some vague unsubstantiated rumours from individual sources. The most likely of these are Wind Waker and Twilight Princess ports, which would be handled by an outside studio and may already be complete. We have less of an idea of what Nintendo's working on than at any time since the NES.

We know a bit more about third party releases, with several outstanding announced titles, but I'm not aware of any unannounced, but reliably leaked third party Switch games. Admittedly I'm probably out of the loop in that regard, but Nintendo appears to be keeping a remarkably tight lid on forthcoming software, and so do third parties.

Meanwhile we've basically stopped hearing anything about Nintendo hardware from the press. Mochizuki, who wrote both the aforementioned 2015 WSJ NX article and the 2021 4K Switch reporting, had pretty continuously reported on forthcoming hardware for years, including the first few years of the Switch. While he often made inaccurate assumptions, he clearly had some good sources, as he had some of the earliest reporting about the Mariko Switch, Switch Lite and OLED model, even if he misrepresented them in some cases. However, for the past year and a half he's gone silent on future Nintendo hardware. I'm not trying to argue that no news is good news in this case, but no news is definitely odd, when for the first four and a half years of the system (including after the OLED release) there was a continuous stream of reporting on future hardware. Leaks stopped at pretty much the time you'd expect them to start.

From separate channels, we know way more about the hardware than we ever have before a prior console launch, while simultaneously knowing very little about the context around that hardware, such as games, system positioning, release window, etc. We can infer some of those things from what we know about the hardware, but we're operating on exactly the opposite basis we usually do, where we hear that Nintendo are going to release a new console and then have to guess what kind of hardware they'll use.

While a 2023 launch would absolutely be extraordinary, I'd argue that the current situation is already extraordinary. We know significantly less than we ever have about what Nintendo's working on, either from themselves or the usual sources. We also have a new leadership team, most of whom haven't been involved in the initial announcement of any previous generation of hardware, and they keep talking about being in "uncharted territory" with the Switch.

I feel like we're approaching the event horizon of a black hole; no information is going to escape no matter how hard you look. At some point something's got to give, though, unless Nintendo's planning a future of exclusively shadow-dropped games and hardware. My view is that Nintendo will have to have an event in either June or early July, at which point they either announce a bunch of Switch games, or new hardware (or both). If we get to Pimin 4's release without any game announcements then my money switches to this being an episode of the Twilight Zone.

Whether the new hardware is actually going to be released this year I have no idea. Ignoring all the secondary sources (or lack thereof) for a minute, the primary sources we have from Nvidia, in the form of the hack and various Linux commits, point to T239 being made specifically for a Nintendo device which was planned to launch in 2023, and was planned to do so as recently as last year. If we ask "what time of year are consoles typically planned to launch?" the answer is usually Q4, so a plan for a Q4 2023 launch seems reasonable. Of course it's always possible that it could be delayed, with the Switch being delayed from Q4 to Q1 to improve the software lineup. I could see a similar thing happening here, potentially moving into the first half of next year. In any case I think we're firmly in the realm of the extraordinary.
 
oldpuck said:
I mean if you wanna go full optimism, more power to you! No judgement. But you started out asking how anyone could believe 2024, I tried to explain. There is 2023 smoke, but it's hardly definitive.
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The harsh reality is that we can't be certain until harder pieces of proof come along. Literally the only things that can disprove either 2023 or 2024 release dates is time, for a lack of a better word.

I'm personally in full optimism mode for 2023, but I am only choosing to believe under the condition that I can't really justify being disappointed if it's 2024 instead, and even then it's only a difference of 3 months in all likelyhood.

I hope other people actually take that from my comment. Choose to believe what you want to believe, just understand that leaks and rumours are exactly what they are on the tin. They won't always be accurate, and predictions are rarely 100% right.
 
Thraktor said:
In any case I think we're firmly in the realm of the extraordinary.
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Agree, pretty much on all counts. We are absolutely in an unusual situation, and I think the real reason for anyone to say "2023" versus "2024" comes down to "optimism/pessimism" rather than data. Which is what I was ultimately trying to get at.

I can't get hyped for a product I know nothing about, and for me personally, I buy games, not hardware. The steady cadence of Switch games is, I think, not an indicator of how ready Nintendo is to move on. Nintendo has spent the entire Switch era trying to break boom-and-bust software release cycles, and that they would continue to release strong software late in a system's life seems part and parcel of that.

But it also means that I'm not spinning my wheels at the end of a generation, feverishly speculating about what I'm finally going to get to play once the new hardware comes out. My only game related disappointment is realizing I don't like Advance Wars as much as I remember.

That just leaves the detective in me, and that says the trail has gone cold. When True Crime shows air, the investigators in charge of cold cases tend to be swamped with false, delusional, or faked reports, and that's mostly what I see in the flurry of press that REDACTED is currently getting. The pieces don't add up, and that in and off itself is pretty interesting, but you can only turn those pieces over and over so long before you start seeing patterns that don't exist, or admitting that you just don't have all pieces.
 
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For the record, we seem to know more about a supposed PS5 Pro launching holiday 2024 than anything at all about Nintendo’s Next hardware.

Let’s put this into perspective, it can mean a few things:

A) Nintendo has leaks locked really well this time from first and third party key partners.

B) People are afraid to give new info because of how it can be circulated

C) The new console isn’t slated until Holiday 2025, they aim for holiday releases and only do Q1 if they are pushed into the position of doing so.


That is all to say that, we aren’t hearing much and people are assuming 2024 is the year but it is possible you may be wrong by a whole 18 months still even and it doesn’t come until late 2025.


Take a second and just put that into perspective. You may find this ridiculous, but there’s nothing pointing to 2023 or 2024 if we go by game leaks. We know more about a supposed PS5 Pro than we do of a supposed Nintendo Next. Late 2025 is equally on the same table as 2024 and 2023.

Edit: actually, it’s more on the table than 2023 or 2024.
 
Goodtwin said:
Im not convinced. Leaks almost always come from western developers. Again, with Drake specs, how long do we really think it would take Ubisoft or 2K to port a few PS4 games? If they were to do the ports in house with a decent size team, maybe a few months?
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Not even just third party western devs that are leaking either. A lot of first party leaks have been from western teams like Retro and NERD.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
For the record, we seem to know more about a supposed PS5 Pro launching holiday 2024 than anything at all about Nintendo’s Next hardware.

Let’s put this into perspective, it can mean a few things:

A) Nintendo has leaks locked really well this time from first and third party key partners.

B) People are afraid to give new info because of how it can be circulated

C) The new console isn’t slated until Holiday 2025, they aim for holiday releases and only do Q1 if they are pushed into the position of doing so.


That is all to say that, we aren’t hearing much and people are assuming 2024 is the year but it is possible you may be wrong by a whole 18 months still even and it doesn’t come until late 2025.


Take a second and just put that into perspective. You may find this ridiculous, but there’s nothing pointing to 2023 or 2024 if we go by game leaks. We know more about a supposed PS5 Pro than we do of a supposed Nintendo Next. Late 2025 is equally on the same table as 2024 and 2023.

Edit: actually, it’s more on the table than 2023 or 2024.
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2025 would be eight years after the original Switch’s release. That would be too much. Even with a consistent schedule of software, hardware sales will continue to decline. Unless they finally phase out the OG Switch and give the OLED the $299 price tag and try to ride on that until they’re ready to release the Drake.
 
Nintendo's FY earnings report is next tuesday, I imagine investors will want to ask what's next for Nintendo, from movies to games, seeing Nintendo has be completely radio silent about what's happening on the 2H of this year. We assume there is a Direct next month (though I guess it could also be this month seeing there is no reason for it to be specifically in June without E3, but since no one has hinted at one for this month, I imagine it'll be next month or early July at worst), but investors will still want some sort of reassurance because Nintendo is really being too silent this time around, only 3 (soon 2) games on their plate and only 2 (soon 1) scheduled for the rest of the year? That's too strange and disconcerning and no, I don't think the rumored Wii U Zeldas are coming this year because we already have TotK, we don't need more Zelda this year and Nintendo can just delay them until next year, when we'll either have a 2D Zelda or no new Zelda. Fire Emblem? We already had one this year, so the next one can realistically wait for next year to not overload people with it and space releases a little, so there isn't that much time before the next one and the one after.

Nintendo doesn't HAVE to announce any 1st Party game for the rest of the year, but it'd be definitely odd if they didn't have anything for the busiest time of the year considering their 1H. So I wonder if Nintendo will tell investors something more than "look forward to a future Nintendo Direct (that will happen between now and the heat death of the universe)", because that wouldn't reassure them too much. I guess they can say they are working on titles to please their consumer base for the 2H of the year and leave it at that... because in the end, I'd expect at most 2 investors to ask them game related questions while others ask them about movies and their theme parks (and maybe ask if they can get free tickets for them, again). We might get a question about if new HW is releasing this FY and since Nintendo can't lie, if they say there isn't, then there isn't and if they say they have nothing to announce, there is a chance and that could hint at the nature of the next Nintendo... event? If HW is releasing this year, who knows if it'd be revealed in June's Direct or if it'd have it's own event, like a Direct specifically for it, just before their games Direct.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
For the record, we seem to know more about a supposed PS5 Pro launching holiday 2024 than anything at all about Nintendo’s Next hardware.

Let’s put this into perspective, it can mean a few things:

A) Nintendo has leaks locked really well this time from first and third party key partners.

B) People are afraid to give new info because of how it can be circulated

C) The new console isn’t slated until Holiday 2025, they aim for holiday releases and only do Q1 if they are pushed into the position of doing so.


That is all to say that, we aren’t hearing much and people are assuming 2024 is the year but it is possible you may be wrong by a whole 18 months still even and it doesn’t come until late 2025.


Take a second and just put that into perspective. You may find this ridiculous, but there’s nothing pointing to 2023 or 2024 if we go by game leaks. We know more about a supposed PS5 Pro than we do of a supposed Nintendo Next. Late 2025 is equally on the same table as 2024 and 2023.

Edit: actually, it’s more on the table than 2023 or 2024.
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That's precisely why I caved and bought an OLED three months ago.
Anyway, shareholder meeting will be very telling.
 
ziggyrivers said:
2025 would be eight years after the original Switch’s release. That would be too much.
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I mean, people keep saying software is selling well so no successor is needed now.

Whether you agree with that or not is up to debate, but people keep bringing up that software is selling well and that this is fine.

Even though that’s in the current moment, not in the later.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Ironic.

Life tip: if you don’t want rude responses, don’t be passive aggressive yourself.
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Oh you're still upset about that, my apologies.
Pokemaniac said:
Put another way, with Nintendo's historical release schedules, between fall and the following spring, the burden of evidence is more on the spring side. It's seemingly never Nintendo's first choice, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to give it the benefit of the doubt.
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The guy was saying that based on leaks and what insiders were saying that it leads to a 2023 release. I was asking him what he was specifically talking about. You assumed I was asking for another reason when it was completely harmless. I just wanted to see why he felt so strongly and to discuss it. This is a speculation and discussion thread, right?
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
For the record, we seem to know more about a supposed PS5 Pro launching holiday 2024 than anything at all about Nintendo’s Next hardware.

Let’s put this into perspective, it can mean a few things:

A) Nintendo has leaks locked really well this time from first and third party key partners.

B) People are afraid to give new info because of how it can be circulated

C) The new console isn’t slated until Holiday 2025, they aim for holiday releases and only do Q1 if they are pushed into the position of doing so.


That is all to say that, we aren’t hearing much and people are assuming 2024 is the year but it is possible you may be wrong by a whole 18 months still even and it doesn’t come until late 2025.


Take a second and just put that into perspective. You may find this ridiculous, but there’s nothing pointing to 2023 or 2024 if we go by game leaks. We know more about a supposed PS5 Pro than we do of a supposed Nintendo Next. Late 2025 is equally on the same table as 2024 and 2023.

Edit: actually, it’s more on the table than 2023 or 2024.
Click to expand...

I think you're overvaluing what we "know" about a PS5 Pro. It's definitely in development - ok cool. A tentative expected released date of Q4 2023. That's something I guess, more than nothing. Proto-type devkits have not been distributed yet but should be soon. Wow exciting.

I mean, shit...didn't we "know" all this stuff about a Switch Pro/Dane/Drake/Redacted at one point too?
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
For the record, we seem to know more about a supposed PS5 Pro launching holiday 2024 than anything at all about Nintendo’s Next hardware.

Let’s put this into perspective, it can mean a few things:

A) Nintendo has leaks locked really well this time from first and third party key partners.

B) People are afraid to give new info because of how it can be circulated

C) The new console isn’t slated until Holiday 2025, they aim for holiday releases and only do Q1 if they are pushed into the position of doing so.


That is all to say that, we aren’t hearing much and people are assuming 2024 is the year but it is possible you may be wrong by a whole 18 months still even and it doesn’t come until late 2025.


Take a second and just put that into perspective. You may find this ridiculous, but there’s nothing pointing to 2023 or 2024 if we go by game leaks. We know more about a supposed PS5 Pro than we do of a supposed Nintendo Next. Late 2025 is equally on the same table as 2024 and 2023.

Edit: actually, it’s more on the table than 2023 or 2024.
Click to expand...
Guess I'm not alone with this line of thinking. It's why I'm starting to question if we should be relying on the grapevine as much anymore, we've been lead astray far too often for far too long. I used to believe in 2025 and now I'm slowly starting to reconsider. Nate might be right.......
 
Hocot8 said:
Oh you're still upset about that, my apologies.
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I’m not upset. Just saying, don’t throw stones if you live in a glass house and get surprised when you break something. That snarky response reminded me of that old post you made and I’m only giving you some advice, otherwise you’ll end up getting them. You can chill with the passive aggressiveness.
 
Goodtwin said:
Im not convinced. Leaks almost always come from western developers. Again, with Drake specs, how long do we really think it would take Ubisoft or 2K to port a few PS4 games? If they were to do the ports in house with a decent size team, maybe a few months?
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I'd guess about a year? It's totally new hardware with a bespoke backend API. While NVN and NVN2 look a lot like each other, NVN2's distinguishing features either have an API that looks nothing like the other consoles (RT) or simply doesn't exist (DLSS). And in the case of DLSS, you can't reuse a PC implementation, because Switch memory management is completely different.

Once mature engine support exists for REDACTED, then I imagine PS4 games come over pretty easily. But mature engine support doesn't arrive until you actually contact those western developers in the first place. If you want Borderlands 3 on REDACTED, then presumably you can go to Epic and get engine support in place before reaching out to 2K, but in the case of Ubisoft, they're also the engine developers. If you want Skull and Bones on REDACTED (heh), the Assassin's Creed/Anvil team need plenty of runway.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I mean, people keep saying software is selling well so no successor is needed now.

Whether you agree with that or not is up to debate, but people keep bringing up that software is selling well and that this is fine.

Even though that’s in the current moment, not in the later.
Click to expand...
Wait, isn't software also going down, at least on average? I guess it's more of a case that the evergreen titles are hitting a plateau, we've already gotten the quintessentials and Mario Kart 8 can only go so far, even with DLC.
 
Looking back to the Switch, Nintendo announced it'd release in FY17 (more specifically, March 2017) during their FY earnings report of 2016 I believe, so they could do a repeat of that by dating it for this FY (if it's releasing this FY) and not elaborate on it at all, but who knows? The Wii U was dead at that point (though it kinda was born dead anyway) so throwing it's sales under the bus was no problem to them by announcing it 11 months before release. In this case they'd probably release it either in Oct or Nov, so it'd be 5-6 months ahead of time... BUT I wonder if they'd think people would hold of on buying Zelda if they announced it before Zelda comes out... Maybe not, Zelda is too hype for a significant amount of people to hold of on it, so they may feel confident in announcing it's release month next week IF it's releasing this FY, if not, we'll have to hope they talk about it in June and if they don't it's probably next year and not even this FY, so after March.
 
Hosermess said:
I think you're overvaluing what we "know" about a PS5 Pro. It's definitely in development - ok cool. A tentative expected released date of Q4 2023. That's something I guess, better than nothing. Proto-type devkits have not been distributed yet but should be soon. Wow exciting.

I mean, shit...didn't we "know" all this stuff about a Switch Pro/Dane/Drake/Redacted at one point too?
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It’s rumored that Pro devkits are already getting shipped: https://gamerant.com/ps5-pro-dev-kits-shipping-soon-first-party-developers/


But of course that’s why I said supposed, and not definitive. Point being that we get more reports from a supposed system almost a year and a half before release than a supposed system that people expect in 6 months, 11 months or even 18 months from now. If we rely on the plethora of leaks, or lack-thereof, for estimating the release timings of this, then the lack of leaks means it isn’t anywhere close to 2023 or 2024. And can be a late 2025 launch.
 
D36 said:
Wait, isn't software also going down, at least on average? I guess it's more of a case that the evergreen titles are hitting a plateau, we've already gotten the quintessentials and Mario Kart 8 can only go so far, even with DLC.
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Yes but Nintendo’s software is still the same, and that’s what matters to them the most. They can continue pushing software and maintain it as it is all to one platform now.
 
D36 said:
Wait, isn't software also going down, at least on average? I guess it's more of a case that the evergreen titles are hitting a plateau, we've already gotten the quintessentials and Mario Kart 8 can only go so far, even with DLC.
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Word. Nintendo’s selection of software, the same as its hardware, is hitting a ceiling.

TonyBaduy said:
Looking back to the Switch, Nintendo announced it'd release in FY17 (more specifically, March 2017) during their FY earnings report of 2016 I believe, so they could do a repeat of that by dating it for this FY (if it's releasing this FY) and not elaborate on it at all, but who knows? The Wii U was dead at that point (though it kinda was born dead anyway) so throwing it's sales under the bus was no problem to them by announcing it 11 months before release. In this case they'd probably release it either in Oct or Nov, so it'd be 5-6 months ahead of time... BUT I wonder if they'd think people would hold of on buying Zelda if they announced it before Zelda comes out... Maybe not, Zelda is too hype for a significant amount of people to hold of on it, so they may feel confident in announcing it's release month next week IF it's releasing this FY, if not, we'll have to hope they talk about it in June and if they don't it's probably next year and not even this FY, so after March.
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They won’t hold on Zelda, but they’d hold on the OLED version. That’s why it’s speculated that, any announcement of the Redacted, would be after Zelda’s launch

ReddDreadtheLead said:
It’s rumored that Pro devkits are already getting shipped: https://gamerant.com/ps5-pro-dev-kits-shipping-soon-first-party-developers/


But of course that’s why I said supposed, and not definitive. Point being that we get more reports from a supposed system almost a year and a half before release than a supposed system that people expect in 6 months, 11 months or even 18 months from now. If we rely on the plethora of leaks, or lack-thereof, for estimating the release timings of this, then the lack of leaks means it isn’t anywhere close to 2023 or 2024. And can be a late 2025 launch.
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Devil’s advocate, but couldn’t it be just a case of Sony and Nintendo having different approaches to leak managing? Like, one cares and the other doesn’t about leaks
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m not upset. Just saying, don’t throw stones if you live in a glass house and get surprised when you break something. That snarky response reminded me of that old post you made and I’m only giving you some advice, otherwise you’ll end up getting them. You can chill with the passive aggressiveness.
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I'm good. If you want to be a hypocrite go off. I'm going to put you on ignore because this is pointless. I suggest you do the same because you are clearly going to keep trying to make something out of nothing from here on out, clearly.
 
So uuhhhhhh, guess we're all on #Team2025, now?

In all seriousness, I'm not expecting super legit leaks to show up until we're close to an announcement, which can be within the next few months to the start of next year. I think we need to look at other factors before we use one (this case being leaks) to make a sound determination. Not that there haven't been any good points, but I think we're relying a little too much on the proverbial grapevine for anything concrete, especially after the two very illegal gigaleaks and the Mochizuki fiasco. Then again, all we really have to go on are hypotheses based on years worth of loose information.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Yes but Nintendo’s software is still the same, and that’s what matters to them the most. They can continue pushing software and maintain it as it is all to one platform now.
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The beauty of it is that they don't have to do 2 versions of the same IP for different systems in the same gen, so they can concentrate in other things, or even just supporting their big games with DLC for a few years, so we can get a larger variety of games. We need to understand that HD development is more time consuming than SD development (all handhelds and consoles from NES to Wii), so they killed 2 birbs with 1 stone there... That doesn't mean we will get games on low selling IPs more often though, like Star Fox or F-Zero, but we can get some surprising games from time to time.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Devil’s advocate, but couldn’t it be just a case of Sony and Nintendo having different approaches to leak managing? Like, one cares and the other doesn’t about leaks
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Mmmm, perhaps. It’s not like Sony doesn’t hold some things down packed at all. Like Spider-Man has been locked pretty well and hasn’t leaked. Other things that leak are like controlled marketing to get people hyped. Sony does want to beat their record for PS all time in a single year after all.

Hocot8 said:
I'm good. If you want to be a hypocrite go off. I'm going to put you on ignore because this is pointless. I suggest you do the same because you are clearly going to keep trying to make something out of nothing from here on out, clearly.
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Lol, you don’t like criticism. You’re ignoring me because I gave you some criticism about how you are with others and didn’t like it. Reflect upon it. I’m not going to put you on ignore because there’s nothing annoying about you, just the hypocrisy about it.

D36 said:
So uuhhhhhh, guess we're all on #Team2025, now?

In all seriousness, I'm not expecting super legit leaks to show up until we're close to an announcement, which can be within the next few months to the start of next year. I think we need to look at other factors before we use one (this case being leaks) to make a sound determination. Not that there haven't been any good points, but I think we're relying a little too much on the proverbial grapevine for anything concrete, especially after the two very illegal gigaleaks and the Mochizuki fiasco. Then again, all we really have to go on are hypotheses based on years worth of loose information.
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Yes we are team late 2025.

(But that’s if you believe and go by leak as a medium for estimating when)

Otherwise be team “future”

TonyBaduy said:
The beauty of it is that they don't have to do 2 versions of the same IP for different systems in the same gen, so they can concentrate in other things, or even just supporting their big games with DLC for a few years, so we can get a larger variety of games. We need to understand that HD development is more time consuming than SD development (all handhelds and consoles from NES to Wii), so they killed 2 birbs with 1 stone there... That doesn't mean we will get games on low selling IPs more often though, like Star Fox or F-Zero, but we can get some surprising games from time to time.
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Exactly. There’s still IPs Nintendo that can be used for release of the system. People wonder “what about launch titles for the next system?” It can be any title Nintendo desires for it.

Hell, Mario Kart next could be a switch game or it could be a game for 2025 or later.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Mmmm, perhaps. It’s not like Sony doesn’t hold some things down packed at all. Like Spider-Man has been locked pretty well and hasn’t leaked. Other things that leak are like controlled marketing to get people hyped. Sony does want to beat their record for PS all time in a single year after all.
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Good point.

robertman2 said:
we going a doomer phase?

neat
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Everyone needs an excuse to invest in that Zelda OLED xD
 
Team May 2024, who is with me? This will be the coolest team, we’ll wear sunglasses and leather jackets.
 
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ziggyrivers said:
Word. Nintendo’s selection of software, the same as its hardware, is hitting a ceiling.


They won’t hold on Zelda, but they’d hold on the OLED version. That’s why it’s speculated that, any announcement of the Redacted, would be after Zelda’s launch


Devil’s advocate, but couldn’t it be just a case of Sony and Nintendo having different approaches to leak managing? Like, one cares and the other doesn’t about leaks
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There's a lot of factors that go into it, but generally we've seen that Sony and MS hardware details will typically leak much earlier and in much more detail than Nintendo. Nintendo's stuff will still leak but it's usually like a year in advance, or whatever, vs multiple years. So I don't think what's going on with the PS5 Pro is the best barometer, but at the same time we should expect some things to start leaking out again. I definitely doubt they can make it to like 6 months prior to launch, and not have some stuff trickling out.
 
All the PS5 Pro information comes from Tom Henderson. A single person out of many who are in the know. If not for him all those other people would just stay tight lipped and we wouldn't know anything about it.
The fact that such a single person hasn't turned up yet for Switch Drake doesn't prove anything about it's release timing.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
For the record, we seem to know more about a supposed PS5 Pro launching holiday 2024 than anything at all about Nintendo’s Next hardware.

Let’s put this into perspective, it can mean a few things:

A) Nintendo has leaks locked really well this time from first and third party key partners.

B) People are afraid to give new info because of how it can be circulated

C) The new console isn’t slated until Holiday 2025, they aim for holiday releases and only do Q1 if they are pushed into the position of doing so.


That is all to say that, we aren’t hearing much and people are assuming 2024 is the year but it is possible you may be wrong by a whole 18 months still even and it doesn’t come until late 2025.


Take a second and just put that into perspective. You may find this ridiculous, but there’s nothing pointing to 2023 or 2024 if we go by game leaks. We know more about a supposed PS5 Pro than we do of a supposed Nintendo Next. Late 2025 is equally on the same table as 2024 and 2023.

Edit: actually, it’s more on the table than 2023 or 2024.
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While I certainly do not want this to be the case, I cant argue it for any reason other than I do not want it to be the case. Because we haven't gotten the smoking gun leaks that typically show up within 18 months of a new hardware's release, it makes 2023 and 2024 almost interchangeable as far as believability. Certainly people will argue that a late 2024 release gives a lot longer for those leaks to happen, but when we are looking at history where substantial leaks were happening a couple years ahead of release, it makes this situation look stranger and stranger. Nintendo has never waiting this long to release a successor, so everyday that passes we are deeper and deeper into unchartered territory. A late 2025 release seems absolutely absurd, 8.5 years before Nintendo releases new hardware? But at the same time, its hard to rule it out as a possibility until we have more info.

The point made about the lack of leaks surrounding software suggest that Nintendo really does have a good lid on things right now. If the lack of leaks surrounding new hardware suggest new hardware isn't coming anytime soon, are the lack of software leaks a reason to believe Nintendo has next to nothing after Pikmin 4 in July? They just happened to stuff the first half of 2023 with some great content and then go into a drought in the second half? I don't think anyone believe that there will be a lack of software for Switch in the second half of this year, despite not having leaks outlining what they are. So if the lack of leaks surrounding software doesnt mean anything, perhaps its true of hardware as well. Time will tell.

oldpuck said:
I'd guess about a year? It's totally new hardware with a bespoke backend API. While NVN and NVN2 look a lot like each other, NVN2's distinguishing features either have an API that looks nothing like the other consoles (RT) or simply doesn't exist (DLSS). And in the case of DLSS, you can't reuse a PC implementation, because Switch memory management is completely different.

Once mature engine support exists for REDACTED, then I imagine PS4 games come over pretty easily. But mature engine support doesn't arrive until you actually contact those western developers in the first place. If you want Borderlands 3 on REDACTED, then presumably you can go to Epic and get engine support in place before reaching out to 2K, but in the case of Ubisoft, they're also the engine developers. If you want Skull and Bones on REDACTED (heh), the Assassin's Creed/Anvil team need plenty of runway.
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I'm still a bit skeptical that it would take a year. The Witcher 3 was ported to Switch in about one year, and that was moving a game from much more powerful hardware to significantly less powerful hardware. I believe Doom 2016 was done by Panic Button in less than I year if I remember correctly. For the sake of argument, lets assume one year is the number. If Redacted is announced in June and development kits started shipping immediately, that would suggest we could expect a steady flow of third party ports to start releasing starting June of 2024. If Redacted were to release this November with a new 3D Mario, Zelda gets the 4K patch, Pokemon gets the performance patch, and then a couple first party releases in early 2024, are we not to assume this would be enough to sell through as many units as they can manufacture? It may even be advantageous for third parties to show up a bit later when the install base has grown a bit and the energy surrounding Nintendo's big first party releases settles down.
 
The point of my post is to highlight that having a dependence on the leaks for claiming 2024 is not looking at it right. :p

It could be late 2025 because you haven’t had any leaks for a system that is supposedly as many have said, due for 2024.

Just like there’s nothing for 2023, there’s literally nothing for 2024. We know more about timings for a supposed Ps5 Pro than a Nintendo switch 2, and an early 2025 makes no sense as they don’t target H1, they target H2 for their releases with hardware. They only go H1 if they are pushed to do so.

It can very much be a late 2025 console.


:p
 
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