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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
So the timeframe would be exactly the same assuming the Switch 2 launches Q4 2024?
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The OG switch stuff about the device physicality leaked 3 months after the GDC conference that happened in 2016.
And we got the clock leaks 3 months before the system was out.
GDC has basically just concluded.
I think people need to consider a few things these days vs the days of yore.
Assume that a few studios do in fact know of developer kits and of a timing, if they speak it so soon after that opens the change pretty liable for who would leak it. Nintendo is also at GDC if I’m not mistaken. Spilling the beans of a secret product, the secret of the one who gave it to you, to the press makes finding information pretty “easy” for someone like Nintendo.
Second, the times aren’t so great right now, and companies are downsizing their workforces across the gaming industry. Hell, people are applying to lots of jobs and it’s more difficult these days than say, 2016. I think people are less inclined to actually risk their livelihood for internet points of a secret product or maybe put others (company) at risk in a way.
Third to last, and this relates to the first one really, but with how Mochizuki outed a studio, it changes the game a lot. Anonymity is key in these, and even playing a game of telephone would make reporters less inclined to really want to take it for its worth.
They want a scoop, not a “maybe it was this, perhaps it was that”. It would have to be a really solid scoop.
I mentioned before how the switch stuff leaked like 3 months after the GDC? So, in an ideal scenario, the moment of leaking would be best when there are more developer kits in the wild to which they have less to worry about. You have a harder time pinpointing things if the net is spread too far. As time goes, more kits reach the wild.
Nintendo is the most secretive of the three companies, lest not forget that.
If you were to chart them in secrecy, it would be:
1. Nintendo
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13. Sony
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47. Netflix
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53. Microsoft their game codenames leak before they even have a drawing on a board
If third parties only need to provide some ports of recent games at the beginning, maybe we can expect the new console to come sooner.
Erika
The New sWitch of Truth
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I agree most of this except the secrecy part.
Nintendo itself (NCL, NoA, etc) is secretive. But their localization vendor/manufacturer are not.
TotK OLED and FE engage both got leaked months before their announcement thanks to some localization uncle and factory uncle.
Cuzizkool
Shriekbat
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So basically the later the (planned) release, the better the odds. I can guess that it may be more expensive, but since Nintendo was forced to go LPDDR4X during the Switch’s lifetime, you’d think they’d get the jump on things this time and pay a bit of a premium in the short term so they could at least reap the benefits of LPDDR5X. Especially if they’re going to be forced to go to LPDDR5X during the middle of Drake’s life cycle. Unless… of course… they’re planning on a Drake Pro.
DLSS HLE via FSR is going to be one of the first things that will be attempted once they get that far. It's not really going to matter unless games start doing non-DLSS workloads on them, and even then, it should be fairly simple to deal with on Nvidia GPUs (other vendors will depend on how well their accelerators match up).
FDE, on the other hand, is the sort of thing that could take a while to figure out, but once the algorithm is known, it will probably just be another minor obstacle in the pile of obstacles that emulators have to expend a lot more processing time dealing with than the actual hardware.
I feel like GDC has been granted undue significance in terms of leaks. The ingredients are there to potentially produce them, but I don't think the history of the event really justifies the idea that a lack of leak afterwards (especially this soon) is especially meaningful.
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They just now heard about devkits?
My god they're like the Internet Explorer of insiders
Erika
The New sWitch of Truth
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Aaaand they knew nothing about Drake.
Only after someone here told them about T239 did they start “looking into it”.
I won’t trust this “leaker”
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
I would like to believe that by the time [Redacted] hits the market, that most phone manufacturers will be on their 2nd generations of phones using lpddr5x. I personally would rather pay $450 for a better spec [Redacted] device that not only has a better all around memory solution but also on a more efficient manufacturing process...
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
I'd like to think that the pandemic definitely slowed down the rollout for all tech advancements, but the heavy saturation of products and the current ression times of frugal spending might benefit the next Switch device in the end...
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Different audience.
Xbox and PlayStation cater to the "casual adult", who has the money to just buy the new thing because its the new thing. The same people who buy the new iPhone even though their old one works fine.
Nintendo's audience is "casual family", who are not predisposed to buying the new thing for the sake of it. Parents need to be able to see that the new system is actually worth spending money on, and if it doesn't have any games that aren't also available on the Switch they already own, then they're not going to drop $400 on it.
Yeah, I fully expect cross-generation games, but I was responding to the ridiculous notion that none of Nintendo's first-party games would be exclusive to the new system.
Equally, I expect many games that could easily run on the Switch to just inexplicably be exclusive to [REDACTED]. Nintendo just does things like that. The next 2D Mario runs on Switch, but then the next 2D Zelda doesn't - or something.
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
To be honest probably in the first few years of Switch 2's existence, most of us enthusiast gamers (and scalpers) will be the only ones able to even find the new system for purchase. By the time supply catches up with demand, Nintendo should have a host of new games slated for release. (on top of Next-gen graphics and performance patches for current popular Switch games that would be good showcase pieces.)
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First two years maximum. Nintendo have been good with managing stock of hardware while the competition have struggled - I don't expect it to be too difficult to get hold of one when it releases. Though yeah, for a while, it's mainly the core audience.
It's also perfectly possible for a system to be a hit with early adopters, and then struggle to catch on with the casual demographic. As I've mentioned earlier, though, I don't think it would be bad for us if [REDACTED] isn't a runaway success. Nintendo could stand to lose some of their bullish attitude.
pelusilla6
Bob-omb
We arent in the 2000s imo, and even kids (or their parents) buy the new iPhone every year.
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All that you've just said is that you are a member of the audience that I described.
It might be hard for you to imagine, but not everyone is like you or the people you know.
pelusilla6
Bob-omb
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You could, yeah, but there's factual, historical evidence to confirm that Nintendo's primary audience are not just automatically willing to buy a successor to a system they own without enough reason to persuade them to. You can't just refute that with biased, tangential nonsense.
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D
Deleted member 1141
Guest
Yes, but also...
...people can barely afford anything, especially these last few years. People are literally penny pinching more than ever, which is why there was a lot of backlash with Zelda being $70 USD.
Christer
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To be fair most people certainly don't buy new phones every year and when they "buy" phones they do so on credit (usually as part of committing to a carrier contract).
While Microsoft have experimented with a similar deal for consoles, offering Series consoles on credit or lease (or from their perspective, console gaming as a monthly service including a console and gamepass for a monthly fee), my sense is that it hasn't been so successful.
Maybe we will see more of that type of business model for consoles though if they are to become more and more expensive, which seems to be the case.
I guess that the above was referring to my previous post? What I wrote was that Nintendo may not release any Drake exclusives for certain family-friendly or -oriented franchises (e.g., Mario, Pokemon, AC, and Kirby) until a Drake-equipped Lite is out. Note that I did not include the Zelda, Xenoblade, or FE series. What's more, the current Lite model was released two years after the OG Switch; should that pattern repeats, the cross-gen period would conclude in two years (when the Drake Lite's ready), which isn't that long on the macro level. Not trying to change your mind or anyone else's though, just clarifying my point.
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Maybe you can try to send him some flowers and chocolate? Or just chocolate.
Just kidding. ^^
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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I wouldn't call it bad luck here though considering it's very likely that a successor is right around the corner
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So what, would they really want to launch a new system without an exclusive Mario game? After 6+ years since the last one? I get that BotW wasn't a Switch exclusive, but nobody owned a Wii U. Conversely, enough people own a Switch that it would be incredibly likely that people would just buy (or pirate) the Switch version instead of buying the new console.
Animal Crossing and Kirby are both too recent for new games to be ready for launch, and Pokémon usually sticks to the old system
Armoured_Bear
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Indeed , a strange choice to make imo.
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If spiting you is what it takes for them to announce it, then I'd implore you to take the sacrifice. For the greater good!
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Armoured_Bear
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Yes, taking one for the team is appreciated
Thanks for your sacrifice !
AxkilAvenger
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Spend your dough man.
So you end up with two awesome Nintendo consoles in the near future, one a collector’s edition. You win
It's not just their games: https://www.windowscentral.com/soft...ows-corepc-modern-platform-hudson-valley-2024
They are so full of holes I wonder if it isn't just a way to get feedbacks or part of their marketing at this point
Controllers will most likely be still usable on the new console, I'd call it an investment
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I've taken a gamble on an OLED and got some raffle tickets for one that's being drawn in 8 hours. At this late stage I don't want to buy one but if I win one I can justify it. So you watch, I will win it later and then drake will get announced next month.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Armoured_Bear
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To my knowledge, no.
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Development timelines kinda dictate that in case of a launch between end of 2023 and end of 2024, calendar years, there has to be some sort of devkit in at least a few chosen dev/pubs hands.
It might not be final ones, or ones that even remotely look like the device, but definintely dev-kits for it.
boodream
Paratroopa
Maybe we could stop pretending not to know that Nintendo's problem isn't emulation but piracy. We know perfectly well that there are people who don't always buy the switch games they play.
Instead of being stupidely agressive with quality Youtube channels like Did know gaming?, Nintendo should rather look at the ton of videos available explaining that haha Nintendont, but are still very happy to show how to play games for free.
You still have about a year before the new console releases. You're good don't worry.
Mr.Gamerson
Octorok
I wonder how much money Nintendo can save by having Samsung manufacture their process node, ram, storage, screen, etc.
BDGAME
Shriekbat
Talking about a possible Headset VR for switch 2 (NS2), I don't know if that possibility is already discussed or not: two switch 2 duck-taped together!
That can be a advantage that only NS2 can have if compared with Ps5 or PC, since it will be already a portable machine, they can put a second T239 inside the helmet. That second Drake will be used to generate only one of the 2 images, while the main switch 2 will generate the other. The helmet will had it's own screen and will not used NS2 screen at all.
Basically, put the NS2 on the Dock, then connect the dock to the helmet via a long cable. If the switch 2 can make 1080p on portable and 4K on docked mode, when it be on VR mode it will have the same power of the dock to make only 1080p and 90fps. This can mean a VR with zero image lost if compare to portable mode.
And that helmet can be cheaper than a Switch 2, since it will not need come with a dock, cartridge port, internal memory and even joycons (we can use the switch 2's joycons). That thing can be the cheapest VR headset on the market. What did you guys think about it?
That can be a advantage that only NS2 can have if compared with Ps5 or PC, since it will be already a portable machine, they can put a second T239 inside the helmet. That second Drake will be used to generate only one of the 2 images, while the main switch 2 will generate the other. The helmet will had it's own screen and will not used NS2 screen at all.
Basically, put the NS2 on the Dock, then connect the dock to the helmet via a long cable. If the switch 2 can make 1080p on portable and 4K on docked mode, when it be on VR mode it will have the same power of the dock to make only 1080p and 90fps. This can mean a VR with zero image lost if compare to portable mode.
And that helmet can be cheaper than a Switch 2, since it will not need come with a dock, cartridge port, internal memory and even joycons (we can use the switch 2's joycons). That thing can be the cheapest VR headset on the market. What did you guys think about it?
There's not hard reason for timelines to be similar. Switch came out when it did was a coincidence. The dram roadmap isn't that secret, if they wanted lpddr5x, they would get it, doesn't matter how other companies feel about it
Enton
Cappy
There hasn't been an equivalent report to this one yet which accurately leaked the Nintendo Switch in late July 2016. I'm therefore extremely skeptical that we'll get the Switch's successor in 2023 and the clock is ticking already for a 1st half of 2024 release.
It ain't happening, unless Nintendo clamped down harder on leaks which I find strange unless the successor has a very significant novel hook to it. I also believe that Nintendo is very apprehensive of an MSRP of more than $350, regardless of inflation. I'd be extremely delighted if all that Drake stuff this thread takes pretty much for granted turns out to be real, but I doubt it until Nintendo reveals it or at the very least Eurogamer reports on it.
It ain't happening, unless Nintendo clamped down harder on leaks which I find strange unless the successor has a very significant novel hook to it. I also believe that Nintendo is very apprehensive of an MSRP of more than $350, regardless of inflation. I'd be extremely delighted if all that Drake stuff this thread takes pretty much for granted turns out to be real, but I doubt it until Nintendo reveals it or at the very least Eurogamer reports on it.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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While I fully expect a combination of cross-gen and exclusive titles for [redacted], including an exclusive Mario, I don't think there's any evidence to support the claim that buying patterns of Switch owners is significantly different to that of Playstation or Xbox owners. The UK's Competition and Markets Authority, in their provisional findings on the Microsoft/Activision acquisition, stated in section 7.71 that:
This is based on confidential information provided by Microsoft, who obviously should know their own demographics, and are also the publisher of the most popular third-party title on Switch, so probably have a very good idea of Nintendo's as well. This is consistent with Nintendo's own reporting on Switch demographics, which they last showed in November 2021:
There's a popular conception that Nintendo's audience is much more heavily weighted towards families and children than Microsoft's or Sony's, but I don't think there's actual evidence to that effect. In particular, I believe people (a) massively underestimate the number of grown-ass adults who play and enjoy Mario games and (b) massively underestimate the number of Playstations and Xboxes which are bought by parents so their kids can play FIFA/COD/etc.
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I didn't say it had anything to do with age, though.While I fully expect a combination of cross-gen and exclusive titles for [redacted], including an exclusive Mario, I don't think there's any evidence to support the claim that buying patterns of Switch owners is significantly different to that of Playstation or Xbox owners. The UK's Competition and Markets Authority, in their provisional findings on the Microsoft/Activision acquisition, stated in section 7.71 that:
This is based on confidential information provided by Microsoft, who obviously should know their own demographics, and are also the publisher of the most popular third-party title on Switch, so probably have a very good idea of Nintendo's as well. This is consistent with Nintendo's own reporting on Switch demographics, which they last showed in November 2021:
There's a popular conception that Nintendo's audience is much more heavily weighted towards families and children than Microsoft's or Sony's, but I don't think there's actual evidence to that effect. In particular, I believe people (a) massively underestimate the number of grown-ass adults who play and enjoy Mario games and (b) massively underestimate the number of Playstations and Xboxes which are bought by parents so their kids can play FIFA/COD/etc.
We saw the Wii U flop even though the Wii was a runaway success. The 3DS struggled to make much of a splash for a while even though it was literally just a DS but better. Before that, the N64 sold miserably compared to the PS1, even though the SNES was the most popular platform of its generation.
I'd say that's more than enough evidence to suggest that Nintendo's audience doesn't have as much brand loyalty compared to the competition. This could easily be because a lot of people see Nintendo as a supplementary option, rather than having that mutual exclusivity that they have with either a PlayStation or an Xbox, they'll buy a Nintendo system in addition to whichever other platform they have, but only if it provides them with a significant enough reason to buy it.
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Why do you find that strange? They were lax on leaks towards the end of the Wii U because it was free marketing and built anticipation at a time when they simply couldn't afford to create a huge marketing campaign.
Now the Switch has given them infinite money and popularity, that kind of thing could instead actively harm their business, so they've cracked down on it.
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I think... there's a reason you're not a hardware designer, no offense
RennanNT
Bob-omb
And we saw the PS3 horrible first years, PS Vita barely outselling the Wii U and then there's the XB1.
As for the N64, that what happens when most of the publishers jump ship. Just like how the 3DS outsold every Sony console in Japan while the Vita didn't sell 1/3 of the PSP numbers, after getting Monster Hunter and other PSP system sellers. Brand loyalty only gets you so far, what really sell consoles are games.
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