kvetcha
hoopy frood
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Probably! Me am no technical
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Games that run already at 1080p 60fps on Switch will benefit the least from a new console. I mean 4K is nice and all, but those games will look and feel more or less similar. And I don‘t see them doing graphic updates for games like Mariokart 8, Splatoon 3 or now Metroid Prime Remastered.
Paul_Subsonic
Être majestuatisant et subversif
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Most of this section is unchanged from the previous version of the document, but they did add the 4080 and 4090 execution times.So Nvidia released the DLSS Programming Guide on GitHub around 8 hours ago. And I found an interesting tidbit on pp. 5-6.
I'll use that to improve my DRAKE DLSS ESTIMATOR.
D
Deleted member 887
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I was curious if, actually, you could use your existing curves, to see if you can predict the 4080 and 4090 execution times, to validate the model
Paul_Subsonic
Être majestuatisant et subversif
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I'm doing that rn.
Although I had already determined when I first posted the 6000 version of the calculator (so before the new data), and just looking at the curves, than any result past 1.5x the perf of a 3080 was clearly unrealistic. The 4080 is 1.7x and the 4090 is 2.8x.
To sum up what I said in the DDE6000 post :
The model couldn't deviate too much when going lower because it had to intersect with the origin (0 tensor perf=0 speed through basic logic). Excel knew where to go next below the 3060 TI. The 3060 TI was technically not the lowest data point, it was (0,0).
But on the other end, RTX 3090 was the last data point, and after that there was 0 indication where to go. Which explained the what I guessed to be wildly unrealistic results past 1.5x 3080 perf. And from what I'm seeing rn, oh boy is it unrealistic.
Edit : what I said in the original DDE6000 about that
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Paul_Subsonic
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So I'm gonna show a BIG divergeance between predicted and actual data, but I don't think it entirely invalidates the previous model; because the previous model matters in the low end. A predicted model is more accurate between the data points than outside (no shit) - and because (0,0) is technically a data point, it makes sense it would be much more accurate between 3060ti and 0 level of performance compared to above 3090 levels of performance.
Aether
Tingle
Botw had some beautifull bullshots. I would not count on if.If TotK looks as clean as the 1080p press kit screenshots suggest I'm good until July at least.
Also: Metroid Prime Remastered gave me that Metroid Dread/Splatoon 3 feeling again - Switch is awesome if devs know how to stay in spec.
EDIT: added screenshot. Chose a pedestrian one. Not an expert, but the picture's resolution is 1080p. Looks like they have a nice anti-aliasing solution (whereas BotW only had something rudimentary to clean up edges IIRC). Looking at Link's pants for instance, it's much less noisy than BotW.
But 100% the highlighted.
theguy
Paratroopa
how does the cloud gaming stuff work, like i get how it works but do we have any idea what specs the server the game is stored on has…
or maybe i don’t understand it at all, what i’m trying to understand is, that there’s a computer, that is capable of playing these games clearly running on more powerful hardware than the switch, the games obviously have to be optimised in a way that understands it is being played on a switch, without being played locally on a switch console. it is a switch console running a switch game but on better hardware?
or maybe i don’t understand it at all, what i’m trying to understand is, that there’s a computer, that is capable of playing these games clearly running on more powerful hardware than the switch, the games obviously have to be optimised in a way that understands it is being played on a switch, without being played locally on a switch console. it is a switch console running a switch game but on better hardware?
Paul_Subsonic
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"the games obviously have to be optimised in a way that understands it is being played on a switch"
Not necessarily.
The Switch acts as merely a streaming device and a controller. The game can very well be just the PC version with different prompts to match the Switch controller.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
It's completely different hardware, and what kind of hardware changes based on the streaming service. And the hardware is usually "virtualized" which means a single - gigantic - physical computer is running multiple copies of multiple games, simultaneously, and spreading the resources around, in order to keep the system cheap.
The version of the software that runs in the Cloud Service(tm) is usually the PC version, slightly modified. The modifications are mostly to replace the game's default icons for buttons and controls with the Cloud Service's custom code, that detects which client is connected.
So if you have a cloud version of a AAA Open World Murderfest III, and that cloud version is available on PC and Switch (for example), the game that runs in the cloud is identical between PC and Switch. But when the game loads up on the server it asks "okay, is the client a PC or is it a Switch" and then swaps what button icons you see.
This is the big advantage of the cloud version for developers. Running a server all the frickin' time every time a gamer wants to play is actually kinda expensive. But you only have to port the game once, and that port is basically the PC version you've probably already got running.
The Cloud Gaming companies will often basically do the port work for free, in exchange for a big cut of the sales. If you are a developer, you're not making a lot of money from those sales, but it's also costing you nothing.
Future Boy Nemo
Daydream Believer
Does anyone know whether it would cost significantly more (say, a $5-10 premium or higher) for Nintendo to use a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chip that can use 60Ghz 802.11ad or 802.11ay?
Download Play was such a popular feature on the DS, then it kind of withered on the 3DS. I'd love to see it make a comeback, but with the file-sizes of modern games a higher bandwidth technology like what I mentioned above would be necessary.
Download Play was such a popular feature on the DS, then it kind of withered on the 3DS. I'd love to see it make a comeback, but with the file-sizes of modern games a higher bandwidth technology like what I mentioned above would be necessary.
theguy
Paratroopa
thanks for your responses @Paul_Subsonic and @oldpuck !
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I don't know of any viable chipsets that would provide this at all. Nintendo uses a Broadcom chip that that supports both dual band Wifi with the standard set of legacy protocols and BT 5. While Broadcom has developed a number of subsequent combo chips that support later protocol versions, I think they only support 802.11ax, not ad or ay. And I doubt Nintendo would use the updated ones anyway, as the older 43013 remains on the market specifically because of it's very low power draw.
That said, I'm not sure you would need more than 802.11ax. You're not transmitting a whole game over the network, just a "client" that can connect to the licensed console which acts as a "server". These clients could be much smaller, in theory. But part of the reason download play withered is because developing those smaller "client" versions increased development costs, while digital store fronts made forcing everyone to own a copy of the game more viable - you go to a friend's house and she has a game you don't have, you're not stuck, just buy it from the store.
I loved download play, would love to see it come back, but I think those economic realities will kill it faster than the technical ones.
I don't think there's any sort of protocol that can help with this. the games have out paced the ability to transfer data reliably. the best way to do this is for people to download their own copy made specifically for download play
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
While I can see that, there's also some aliasing left in these shots. Look at the diagonal lines on the glider, for instance. A bullshot at high resolution would have those polished out right?
Gerald
Bob-omb
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Btw Joy-Con will be the same or will be some kinda of evolution
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I don't trust any aliasing analysis on a screenshot taken from youtube video. The number of compression processes that they image has been through could both introduce aliasing and remove it. For example, the blockiness on the insignia on top of the glider. Aliasing? Low res texture? Or is is a block compression artifact from the video conversion? shrug
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
I'd agree, but these shots are from the press kit. See the Gallery here: https://www.nintendo.co.uk/Games/Ni...lda-Tears-of-the-Kingdom-1576884.html#Gallery
Glider shots are from
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
From my memory (and I have fun vivid recollections of the BotW pre-release cycle), these shots look cleaner than the direct feed Switch screenshots of the first game, but I'll have to dig them up.
I won't make a vibrancy comparison since that's weather dependent.
And yeah BotW had 4K bullshots, but those were purely of environments and it was kind of obvious. I don't think any of these are bullshots.
I won't make a vibrancy comparison since that's weather dependent.
And yeah BotW had 4K bullshots, but those were purely of environments and it was kind of obvious. I don't think any of these are bullshots.
Future Boy Nemo
Daydream Believer
My understanding is that 802.11ad can hit 500MB/s fairly easily in a close-range ad-hoc scenario, and 802.11ay would be even faster. The vast majority of multiplayer Switch games could be transferred in full (which wouldn't be necessary, as @oldpuck pointed out) in under half a minute.
But you're right, a free 'download-play' client on the eshop, maybe one that doubles as a demo, is probably the best way to bring it back. Assuming any developers are interested in resurrecting it.
Fake edit: I actually found an example of what you suggested, Pac-Man Vs has a free local multiplayer version on the eshop.
RochHoch
Koopa
Huh. For like the first time ever, I'm actually annoyed by the Switch being underpowered
I downloaded the Octopath Traveler 2 demo on both Switch and my Steam Deck and did a side-by-side comparison. I normally don't care much about graphics, but oof, there's a pretty big difference. There's no reason not to pick Deck here.
Well folks, I guess I'm now legally obligated to constantly complain about Nintendo waiting so long to release a successor. It's been fun trying not to be as negative until now lol
I downloaded the Octopath Traveler 2 demo on both Switch and my Steam Deck and did a side-by-side comparison. I normally don't care much about graphics, but oof, there's a pretty big difference. There's no reason not to pick Deck here.
Well folks, I guess I'm now legally obligated to constantly complain about Nintendo waiting so long to release a successor. It's been fun trying not to be as negative until now lol
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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Damn I'm surprised that it's taken you this long lol
Dekuman
Kremling
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Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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What?
Dekuman
Kremling
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Dekuman
Kremling
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it's unreal, but live-a-live looked great compared to traingle strategy. They had different teams working on the same engine, but the HD-2D 2.5 they used for live-a-live produced great picture quality.
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I agree. Software is selling well (enough). While we don‘t know much about the second half of 2023, I think that there is some breathing room needed between TOTK (which could arguably the last big game for Switch) and the next hardware. I feel like this could explain why Zelda is releasing at such a weird time; it‘s the furthest possible push back date before they want to start to change their main focus beyond the Switch.
Software sales are down despite the install base growing.
Software sales are reported as units sold, not revenue, right? The Switch is now mostly an indie machine, I guess most of those sales are for cheaper titles. First-party games have some success, but otherwise they're not selling Elden Rings or Call of Duties for $70. Third-party AAA games are now mostly skipping the Switch, and for the rare ones that are ported, people seem to increasingly choose other platforms to buy them on.
Nintendo is still doing great as a business, but they're loosing increasingly more money the more the Switch becomes obsolete.
InsouciantSoul
Rattata
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I think it is also worth noting that for Nintendo's fiscal year 20/21, 51% of revenue came from hardware sales. Strong software sales is great, but I am sure they would sorely miss any drop in hardware sales revenue.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Well, obviously, I think they're wrong, lol. Software "breaking records" is a terrible reason to hold back a successor. Game sales now can't really affect a hardware launch decided years in advance.
Kit might know what he's talking about when it comes to how Nintendo markets things, but he's more than a little off-base with his reasoning here.
In reality, striking while the iron is hot with a system that's backwards compatible with, or even improves existing games, while those games are selling well, just makes sense.
What, would he think PS5 should have been delayed out of 2020 because PS4 exclusives sold well that year? It's absurd.
Dekuman
Kremling
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indie's have always been strong on Nintendo, do you have data it's only an indie machine now when there are way more titles releasing than say in 2018 or 2019?
And here's the software sell through it's up slightly , but not down which is Kit's point. Where are you getting your data from?
IR Information : Sales Data - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units
www.nintendo.co.jp
We won't know ther real story until some years later and for all we know software isn't ready for the Switch 2 which would be a better argument not to rush it, but if OG Switch software is doing this good, they are unlikely to rush out a successor. Trust me I want new beefy hardware like most people in this thread, and a lot of Switch 2 talk from myself include had been around the drops on hardware, but when people make good points , we should acknowledge it. Kit made a good point.
Also i realize Q3 2022 was strong due to Pokemon. They won't have a strong seller (that we know of) for Q3 2003. Even if it's Prime 4, that game isn't doing Pokemon numbers, so March 2024 will definately be a down year and software is already likely on a downward slope going into the new FY. Kit's only talking about why there won't be new hardware this year, not forever.
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Look over there
Bob-omb
I'm doubtful that how sales are going now are going to influence whether or not to pull the trigger, as I'm still of the belief that these sort of decisions have to be made based on predictions made years ago.
Whether they were able to predict sustained software success and decided accordingly is a different question.
Whether they were able to predict sustained software success and decided accordingly is a different question.
SirArthur
Kremling
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I've never understood this notion. Do people only think of games as indie and AAA?
Is it the lack of knowledge of games outside mainstream or people's most liked genre?
Is it sales wise the reason? "Indies sell the most on switch", because if that's the case, isn't PS mostly a COD/Sports game Machine? Idk
I don't think that person quite understands the situation. They are taking a single aspect, and running with that rather than taking in multiple aspects. Correct me on any of what I say here if I get any of it wrong.
Regardless of how much software they are selling, if the next hardware is ready, they can't simply hold back the release. They've settled production long beforehand, so the units will be made. If they delay, then those units will have to be stored, and that's both a waste of money, and a risk (natural disaster, aging tech, etc).
What about devs working on games for that new hardware? Does anyone think it would be a good idea for Nintendo to tell them they are going to hold back the hardware? And what are the games that are selling very well on Switch? Just from this video, it's literally Nintendo's own stuff. How will 3rd-parties take that if Nintendo chose to delay the hardware release because their own software on an older platform still sells well?
There is also the aspect of backwards compatibility. If Drake has it (and I'm sure it will), then it makes no sense to delay it. It won't slow down Switch game sales if Drake can also play them, especially if they have some sort of enhancement over running on a Switch (like maintaining peak frame rate and resolution).
This isn't really the full picture either. This is direct from the Nintendo Investor's Q&A where one investor actually did notice Nintendo's software sales are slipping in the Americas (which is Nintendo's largest market by far):
Furukawa: In the Americas, software unit sales for the nine months between April and December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year. When you look at region-by-region performance, the Americas was the only region where unit sales declined year-on-year.
So it looks like a pretty significant decline software wise has set in for the North America + South America ... 20% decline almost is not a minor drop.
Software sales are slowing considerably in the largest Nintendo market (the Americas) ... it's just not as noticable yet because Europe/Asia I take it were pretty strong, but if you start seeing decline in Europe/Asia next fiscal year, then the software drop is going to be very noticeable.
My general feeling is even if Nintendo wanted to launch in 2023, they probably wouldn't be able to, even if the hardware was complete, I think they probably need more time internally for the software and are not going to launch without a stacked lineup ever again. They learned a bitter, bitter lesson with both the 3DS and Wii U and won't be doing the whole "well lets just launch with a so-so lineup of games for the first 8 months, maybe it'll turn out ok" type thing.
It's not just about even having a big launch game ... what do you have 50-60 days later? 90 days later? 120 days later? The Switch had hit after hit after hit in those time periods, I think Nintendo wants to do as much of the same as possible with a successor.
I think it's just for the best to view the COVID situation as something that has delayed just about everything back a year from where it might have been otherwise.
It's not just about even having a big launch game ... what do you have 50-60 days later? 90 days later? 120 days later? The Switch had hit after hit after hit in those time periods, I think Nintendo wants to do as much of the same as possible with a successor.
I think it's just for the best to view the COVID situation as something that has delayed just about everything back a year from where it might have been otherwise.
I don't think that Nintendo makes such reactive decision depending on the last 12 months sales.
The successor will probably release in 2024, and that was probably their plan all along. They did indeed release needs hardware revisions every 2 years since 2017, but this isn't a hardware revisions we're talking about and a three years gap between the OLED and the new model seems just right.
The successor will probably release in 2024, and that was probably their plan all along. They did indeed release needs hardware revisions every 2 years since 2017, but this isn't a hardware revisions we're talking about and a three years gap between the OLED and the new model seems just right.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Interestingly enough its 900p in docked and +600p in handheld.
I'm not sold that the final Totk will be 1080p. At least not most of the time. I would be shocked if its more than 900p. Seems like every recent 1st party switch game struggles to get to 1080p.
Well I guess that depends.. I do think 4k 60fps would be noteworthy on the tv, but it also depends on the type of game it is. They could always add anti aliasing, improve lighting, shadows, and textures as well.
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Nintendo does not report unit sales of download only titles, which is the vast majority of indie games. The bolded is not at all supported by the evidence, the majority of software sales are still full price first party titles.
SiG
Chain Chomp
No. That would be TAA.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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But when you add upgraded lighting, shadows, textures and an RT mode, it's not just a simple resolution increase any more. My point is that a resolution increase alone on any Switch game (even ToTK) isn't going to do the job of being a showcase title for the new hardware. Upgrading ToTK to the point that it would be a suitable showcase for a new generation system (like improving lighting, shadows, textures, and implementing ray tracing) would be a very substantial effort that doesn't make sense on a game that's already been delayed and will sell very well on Switch as-is.
From everything we know about Drake, Switch 2 will be a full generational leap akin to the jump from N64 to GC or Wii to Wii U. Like in those cases, Nintendo will have launch titles which were developed specifically with the new hardware in mind, and they will act as far better showcases for the new hardware than ToTK would. Because of how both economic and technical aspects of game development have changed over the years, in this case I expect most of Nintendo's early Switch 2 titles to be cross-gen, but still developed with Switch 2 in mind from the start (which ToTK clearly wasn't).
I think there'll be a better third party presence, but I still don't expect anything near parity with Xbox and Playstation. At launch specifically I'd say we'll get a lot of late ports of games which would have been considered too ambitious for the Switch.
Mildudon
Rattata
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Metroid prime 4 and a Mario game.
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Yeah, a few points occur to me here:
1) adjusting the hardware timeline right now due to strong software sales isn't very easy; certainly not by any length of time (I.e. more than 3 months perhaps). Nintendo need to balance manufacturing, shipping, distribution, software development and third party relations (this last one alone is complex), online infrastructure and so on. Software and engagement being high on Switch isn't reason enough alone to change new hardware plans because so many other factors - planned over several years - are involved. Equally, there are other factors in Nintendo's data which point to it being a good time to get a Switch successor out. A higher proportion of sales come from the OLED model, which perhaps indicates a higher price point and improved hardware are pretty appealing to the market right now.
2) Like Skittzo pointed out, Nintendo never report the vast majority of indie software sales because the vast majority of indie titles are download only. The 205 million software sales this fiscal year counts only those games that have both a physical and digital release. Somebody else also pointed out that, rather than peaking sharply, Switch sales appear to have reached something of a plateau.
3) North American software being down doesn't necessarily point to a particular problem or slowdown in that market. By Nintendo's own reckoning, it's because the software slate in 2022 was less appealing to the North American market than 2021. In 2022, Asia and Japan responded especially well to Pokemon and Splatoon 3. In Europe, Kirby, Switch Sports and Mario Strikers did notably well (including in the holiday season, and Kirby especially outperformed past titles in Europe). There doesn't seem to be any particular title that performed stronger than usual in North America, while in 2021 Zelda and Metroid performed better in NA than other regions. Regional differences in taste can sometimes effect software performance and this seems to be one of those years.
1) adjusting the hardware timeline right now due to strong software sales isn't very easy; certainly not by any length of time (I.e. more than 3 months perhaps). Nintendo need to balance manufacturing, shipping, distribution, software development and third party relations (this last one alone is complex), online infrastructure and so on. Software and engagement being high on Switch isn't reason enough alone to change new hardware plans because so many other factors - planned over several years - are involved. Equally, there are other factors in Nintendo's data which point to it being a good time to get a Switch successor out. A higher proportion of sales come from the OLED model, which perhaps indicates a higher price point and improved hardware are pretty appealing to the market right now.
2) Like Skittzo pointed out, Nintendo never report the vast majority of indie software sales because the vast majority of indie titles are download only. The 205 million software sales this fiscal year counts only those games that have both a physical and digital release. Somebody else also pointed out that, rather than peaking sharply, Switch sales appear to have reached something of a plateau.
3) North American software being down doesn't necessarily point to a particular problem or slowdown in that market. By Nintendo's own reckoning, it's because the software slate in 2022 was less appealing to the North American market than 2021. In 2022, Asia and Japan responded especially well to Pokemon and Splatoon 3. In Europe, Kirby, Switch Sports and Mario Strikers did notably well (including in the holiday season, and Kirby especially outperformed past titles in Europe). There doesn't seem to be any particular title that performed stronger than usual in North America, while in 2021 Zelda and Metroid performed better in NA than other regions. Regional differences in taste can sometimes effect software performance and this seems to be one of those years.
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