StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Kingpin722]

So apparently Nintendo has been sitting on Metroid Prime Remastered for around 18 months. Similar to Fire Emblem Engage where that was finished last June.

Makes me think about how calculated Nintendo has been this generation. I really feel confident in whenever they decide to release the successor because it’s clear they have mapped out much further in advance than what is publicly known.

 

[CypressFX]

Who said they are scared?

Hey Nate, is your Direct reaction podcast still coming out today?

 

[Hosermess]

3) North American software being down doesn't necessarily point to a particular problem or slowdown in that market. By Nintendo's own reckoning, it's because the software slate in 2022 was less appealing to the North American market than 2021. In 2022, Asia and Japan responded especially well to Pokemon and Splatoon 3. In Europe, Kirby, Switch Sports and Mario Strikers did notably well (including in the holiday season, and Kirby especially outperformed past titles in Europe). There doesn't seem to be any particular title that performed stronger than usual in North America, while in 2021 Zelda and Metroid performed better in NA than other regions. Regional differences in taste can sometimes effect software performance and this seems to be one of those years.

So apparently Nintendo has been sitting on Metroid Prime Remastered for around 18 months. Similar to Fire Emblem Engage where that was finished last June.

Makes me think about how calculated Nintendo has been this generation. I really feel confident in whenever they decide to release the successor because it’s clear they have mapped out much further in advance than what is publicly known.

"NA sales were down, let's break the emergency glass and shadowdrop MP1" is pretty funny even if it makes sense. Makes me wonder what needs to happen for them to bust out WW/TP.

 

[roccerfeller]

This is suspicious.
I suppose they're hinting at playable Zelda, but it is odd.

No longer looks like a Wii U gamepad lol

 

[Rin-go]

So apparently Nintendo has been sitting on Metroid Prime Remastered for around 18 months. Similar to Fire Emblem Engage where that was finished last June.

Why do you keep believing that? It's not a thing. Imagine spending millions on development and just losing money until release. Advance Wars is an outliner not the norm.
On a side note, how do people repeat that Nintendo was hit hard by the pandemic, but every second game was finished years in advance? Makes no sense.

 

[Raccoon]

Why do you keep believing that? It's not a thing. Imagine spending millions on development and just losing money until release. Advance Wars is an outliner not the norm.
On a side note, how do people repeat that Nintendo was hit hard by the pandemic, but every second game was finished years in advance? Makes no sense.

they're believing it because it was rated in summer 2021...

 

[Ojoloco]

I think this topic was already discussed in the development thread. That those ratings are made with unfinished games.

 

[Serif]

they're believing it because it was rated in summer 2021...

I keep forgetting that was almost two years ago. Gross

 

[Kingpin722]

"NA sales were down, let's break the emergency glass and shadowdrop MP1" is pretty funny even if it makes sense. Makes me wonder what needs to happen for them to bust out WW/TP.

I don't think that's necessarily the correlation. I was moreso implying that Nintendo seems to understand that they have control in this situation, and the natural decline of the Switch won't change that. They don't have to potentially push releases (games or hardware) forward to "save" a naturally declining console thats already cemented as one of the greatest ever. They are perfectly setting the table for the successor at their own pace. But this is just my perception of the situation.

 

[Kingpin722]

I think this topic was already discussed in the development thread. That those ratings are made with unfinished games.

My post was referencing this on Twitter. The German rating organization which classifies games when their content is “frozen” so essentially finished.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Why do you keep believing that? It's not a thing. Imagine spending millions on development and just losing money until release. Advance Wars is an outliner not the norm.

Because it was reported by multiple different sources and confirmed by staff who worked summer contracts at Retro.

Advanced Wars was an announced project which was delayed, that is definitely an outlier. But this is a different situation, and isn't an outlier, as the exact same evidence exists for Fire Emblem: Engage being dealt with the same way.

 

[Machrider]

What are people expecting in terms of the actual launch library for the Switch successor? After the success of the first Switch do people expect a bigger presence of big 3rd titles to accompany the Switch Next launch?

I think people will be surprised ... after the Wii U and 3DS launches, I think Nintendo will never again take the risk of launching with a soft library again.

Not just the day 1 launch, I'm talking like the first 6-8 months after launch too, they will stack the deck as much as they can.

3rd party support will be welcome, but again I don't see Nintendo relying on that to sell their system, they know they have to take the lead.

The Wii U had a new Mario, Nintendo Land, plus 3rd party games like Call of Duty and Zombi U at launch and it still was a very weak launch for them.

With Switch you saw Breath of the Wild (30 million seller), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (50+ million seller), Splatoon 2 (10+ million seller) within the system's first 4 months on market ... now that's a killer launch. That launch along with Mario Odyssey as their holiday title was such a strong lineup it basically set the Switch up for life ... the system really has never struggled after flying out of the start line.

My feeling is Furukawa will want to repeat this as much as they can, obviously it will be harder this time because getting BOTW and MK8 from the Wii U made launching the Switch massively easier. I think Mario Kart 9 will be there early in the launch cycle, possibly day 1. It will be a NSO subscription driver and Nintendo will bring new tracks/content to it for years, so even if they "only" start with like 16 tracks, it will grow way past that with constant DLC.

 

[Hermii]

But when you add upgraded lighting, shadows, textures and an RT mode, it's not just a simple resolution increase any more. My point is that a resolution increase alone on any Switch game (even ToTK) isn't going to do the job of being a showcase title for the new hardware. Upgrading ToTK to the point that it would be a suitable showcase for a new generation system (like improving lighting, shadows, textures, and implementing ray tracing) would be a very substantial effort that doesn't make sense on a game that's already been delayed and will sell very well on Switch as-is.

From everything we know about Drake, Switch 2 will be a full generational leap akin to the jump from N64 to GC or Wii to Wii U. Like in those cases, Nintendo will have launch titles which were developed specifically with the new hardware in mind, and they will act as far better showcases for the new hardware than ToTK would. Because of how both economic and technical aspects of game development have changed over the years, in this case I expect most of Nintendo's early Switch 2 titles to be cross-gen, but still developed with Switch 2 in mind from the start (which ToTK clearly wasn't).

Still disagree honestly. 4K 60 fps TOTK with higher settings like draw distance, would be spectacular even if they didn't do anything fancy like RT.

Especially because it's a game about great heights. Taking in the landscape below and above, in much higher detail and resolution would be a really good showcase.

 

[Ojoloco]

My post was referencing this on Twitter. The German rating organization which classifies games when their content is “frozen” so essentially finished.

No, in that rating they are rated when the content of the game is complete, this does not mean that the game is finished. Much of the optimization and debugging work remains to be done.

This was discussed in the development thread. In fact, you can see that in that list, games that were broken and with multiple patches such as Pokemon DP were rated in advance.
I invite you, if you are really interested in this topic, go to that thread and read what was discussed.

 

[Aether]

My feeling is Furukawa will want to repeat this as much as they can, obviously it will be harder this time because getting BOTW and MK8 from the Wii U made launching the Switch massively easier. I think Mario Kart 9 will be there early in the launch cycle, possibly day 1. It will be a NSO subscription driver and Nintendo will bring new tracks/content to it for years, so even if they "only" start with like 16 tracks, it will grow way past that with constant DLC.

i...really cant see a MK9 early when they are pumping the DLC for MK8 full with tracks.

 

[Bosintang]

i...really cant see a MK9 early when they are pumping the DLC for MK8 full with tracks.

Given Mario Kart sales profile, you want it to be released as early as possible in the life of a new console.
Also, unless Nintendo became suddenly creatively bankrupt, I do not believe that the hook of Mario Kart 9 will be "more of the same", like Smash and MK8DX were.

 

[snorkellingfish]

i...really cant see a MK9 early when they are pumping the DLC for MK8 full with tracks.

Mario Kart 8 is nudging on 9 years old. It'll actually be longer between new Mario Karts than it has been between new Zeldas, DLC notwithstanding.

It would surprise me if Mario Kart isn't ready for the Switch 2 launch window. It's such a major series for Nintendo.

 

[Hairway to Steven]

Some folks in the thread I posted yesterday believe there will be a bigger gap between Switch 2/PS5 than there was between Switch/PS4.

Is this based on anything concrete? I don't get it.

 

[karmitt]

Some folks in the thread I posted yesterday believe there will be a bigger gap between Switch 2/PS5 than there was between Switch/PS4.

Is this based on anything concrete? I don't get it.

“Because Nintendo” flavored pessimism I’d guess.

 

[Serif]

What may be more relevant is the Series S : Switch 2 gap which I don't think will be larger than the Switch : PS4/XBO differential.

 

[NateDrake]

Hey Nate, is your Direct reaction podcast still coming out today?

Tomorrow morning.

 

[Aether]

Given Mario Kart sales profile, you want it to be released as early as possible in the life of a new console.
Also, unless Nintendo became suddenly creatively bankrupt, I do not believe that the hook of Mario Kart 9 will be "more of the same", like Smash and MK8DX were.

Mario Kart 8 is nudging on 9 years old. It'll actually be longer between new Mario Karts than it has been between new Zeldas, DLC notwithstanding.

It would surprise me if Mario Kart isn't ready for the Switch 2 launch window. It's such a major series for Nintendo.

I mean, i just don't think that MK9 can look that much better, and am struggling to think how it really can entice people to pay 60€ outside of hardcores, but i would be more then happy if its true.
I just doubt it, to me it feels like they would have spaced the DLC differently and made less if they are already actively working on MK9.
Launching with just the regular amount of Courses will be a huge cutback. Think, MK8 Deluxe already came with way more then the base MK8 and any other Mario Kart. To me this now feels similar to Smash Ultimate: hard to get people on board with starting "from scratch".

By the way, bought MK8 twice (WiiU + DLC, Switch) and lost my switch cart, so im all in on MK9 since i cant reason paying a third time for the base game to pay for DLC to experience the new Courses.

 

[Machrider]

i...really cant see a MK9 early when they are pumping the DLC for MK8 full with tracks.

Don't think the main team is working on MK8 DLC ... that is a smaller team (this is also why the graphics aren't as good as some people have complained ... because it isn't the main art staff working on it). They're just taking old tracks and redoing the graphics mainly, that isn't exactly taxing work.

Mario Kart 9 should have be already at least 1+ year in development by this point, if it's not, Nintendo is I think making a massive mistake.

Also really by this point, how hard is it for Nintendo to make a fun Mario Kart track? They should have it down to a science by now I would think. 16 new tracks, that's your new game, you can add DLC of retro remake tracks and other new tracks as you go as DLC. Making a MK game shouldn't be as hard as making a Zelda game or something, building track designs is fairly straight forward and MK9 can do the same thing MK8 did by releasing retro tracks as extra content as time goes along.

Mario Kart 9 should be the no.1 priority in Nintendo's internal development frankly. Like what else is more important?

Frankly all of Mario Kart 9, Animal Crossing Next, and Smash Bros. Next should all be in active, full blown development right now. I'm talking like well past the planning/brain storming phase and into hard development and building the meat of the game already. There's no reason for them not to be, all the teams for those games have had multiple years now of breaks from the previous installment.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I haven't tried the octopath demo but I wouldn't think HD-2D games would tax the Switch.

Though I just looked it up and it's in Unreal, maybe that's why?

Yeah, they aim to look retro, but they've got a lot going on and run decidedly sub-native.

In reality, striking while the iron is hot with a system that's backwards compatible with, or even improves existing games, while those games are selling well, just makes sense.

One doesn't have to look farther than the only two systems to sell more than 150m to find a couple good examples of that.

And here's the software sell through it's up slightly , but not down which is Kit's point. Where are you getting your data from?

That only shows through last March--but not a lot has changed in the meantime. Slightly up, then slightly down.

It is true that NA is down more--but the other regions are also up, so it's mostly evened out.

What are people expecting in terms of the actual launch library for the Switch successor? After the success of the first Switch do people expect a bigger presence of big 3rd titles to accompany the Switch Next launch?

Sure. Third parties are always going to be quicker to support the follow-up to a known success. Wii U was a turd, but did have a fair amount of notable 3rd party stuff that was never touching Wii in the early days.

 

[Dekuman]

Yeah, they aim to look retro, but they've got a lot going on and run decidedly sub-native.

One doesn't have to look farther than the only two systems to sell more than 150m to find a couple good examples of that.

That only shows through last March--but not a lot has changed in the meantime. Slightly up, then slightly down.

It is true that NA is down more--but the other regions are also up, so it's mostly evened out.

Sure. Third parties are always going to be quicker to support the follow-up to a known success. Wii U was a turd, but did have a fair amount of notable 3rd party stuff that was never touching Wii in the early days.

yeah i realized later it was only up to 2022. looks like software is stable.

I think once it's down 20-30% like hardware, we'll see more of an impetus to move. That said the issue for Nintendo is smoothing out their revenue to avoid peaks and valleys. waiting too long with new hardware will create more opportunities for these valleys.

 

[Hairway to Steven]

“Because Nintendo” flavored pessimism I’d guess.

Everything I've heard from folks in here suggests that the gap between PS5/Switch 2 will be smaller, not bigger. And there is supposed to be DLSS, which should make downporting from PS5 to Switch 2 even easier than PS4 to Switch downporting was.

So, yeah, those comments confused me. They don't align with the info and speculation I've seen at all.

 

[karmitt]

Everything I've heard from folks in here suggests that the gap between PS5/Switch 2 will be smaller, not bigger. And there is supposed to be DLSS, which should make downporting from PS5 to Switch 2 even easier than PS4 to Switch downporting was.

So, yeah, those comments confused me. They don't align with the info and speculation I've seen at all.

The work and speculation in this thread likely doesn’t make it far out of this thread. You can see it with just how often people are instantly assuming it’s not going to hit Steam Deck performance. I suspect it’s almost a given in it’ll outperform it in handheld when factoring in games being built for the platform, and Docked with DLSS is going to be a night and day comparison.

 

[Machrider]

yeah i realized later it was only up to 2022. looks like software is stable.

I think once it's down 20-30% like hardware, we'll see more of an impetus to move. That said the issue for Nintendo is smoothing out their revenue to avoid peaks and valleys. waiting too long with new hardware will create more opportunities for these valleys.

Software is 20% down in North/South America according to Furukawa for April-Dec 2022. Looks like Japan and Europe are holding that number up ... but I don't know if that will last.

Splatoon is bigger in Japan than in the West, so that probably helped.

 

[Instro]

Yeah software is not stable. It's going to finish down ~15% from last FY. Original forecast for this FY was 210m units, down from 235m in the previous FY. That forecast was revised downward in the recent Q3 results to 205m. Notably evergreens slowed down last year, with NA in particular slowing more than expected, hence the return of the voucher program. I'd expect like 160m in the next FY. Next FY or immediately after is the ideal time to launch a successor if they want to avoid a large scale drop in revenue.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Everything I've heard from folks in here suggests that the gap between PS5/Switch 2 will be smaller, not bigger. And there is supposed to be DLSS, which should make downporting from PS5 to Switch 2 even easier than PS4 to Switch downporting was.

So, yeah, those comments confused me. They don't align with the info and speculation I've seen at all.

DLSS isn't the panacea people make it out to be, especially if the ps5 game is already rendering at a resolution like 1080p

 

[ShadowFox08]

I haven't tried the octopath demo but I wouldn't think HD-2D games would tax the Switch.

Though I just looked it up and it's in Unreal, maybe that's why?

They surprisingly do. Some of the 2.5D stuff can be taxing behind the scenes.

No longer looks like a Wii U gamepad lol

Looks like a switch lite or mobile phone almost..

But when you add upgraded lighting, shadows, textures and an RT mode, it's not just a simple resolution increase any more. My point is that a resolution increase alone on any Switch game (even ToTK) isn't going to do the job of being a showcase title for the new hardware. Upgrading ToTK to the point that it would be a suitable showcase for a new generation system (like improving lighting, shadows, textures, and implementing ray tracing) would be a very substantial effort that doesn't make sense on a game that's already been delayed and will sell very well on Switch as-is.

From everything we know about Drake, Switch 2 will be a full generational leap akin to the jump from N64 to GC or Wii to Wii U. Like in those cases, Nintendo will have launch titles which were developed specifically with the new hardware in mind, and they will act as far better showcases for the new hardware than ToTK would. Because of how both economic and technical aspects of game development have changed over the years, in this case I expect most of Nintendo's early Switch 2 titles to be cross-gen, but still developed with Switch 2 in mind from the start (which ToTK clearly wasn't

Considering its/could have been a multiplatform game, going from 900p to native 4k would be pretty big jump visually on resolution alone with all the graphical updates from Totk from botw. It could look like a PS4 game on PS4 pro. I think switch 2 could get more than that.

I did mention some different modes. Such as a 60fps mode and RT. So no, I don't expect Drake to be 4k 60fps when OG is likely gonna be 900p 30 fps using something similar to xb3 for IQ.

But 4k 30fps with increased draw distancing, textures, lighting and shadows, 1440p 60 FPS, or 1080p 30fps with RT would be pretty interesting.

I'm sure Nintendo had Switch 2 in mind for Totk, just like they did botw for Wii u and Wii u. But it's likely based on the original platform. Now games like MP4, who knows...but Pokemon S/V feel pretty constrained on switch hardware from a visual and performance perspective. It looks different than the trailers. Feels like it was made on more powerful hardware initially.

 

[Hairway to Steven]

DLSS isn't the panacea people make it out to be, especially if the ps5 game is already rendering at a resolution like 1080p

Not saying it is. But there are people in other threads saying there will be a wider gap between PS5 and Switch than there was between PS4 and Switch, and thus downporting will be harder. That is what I was asking about.

 

[MisterSpo]

Yeah software is not stable. It's going to finish down ~15% from last FY. Original forecast for this FY was 210m units, down from 235m in the previous FY. That forecast was revised downward in the recent Q3 results to 205m. Notably evergreens slowed down last year, with NA in particular slowing more than expected, hence the return of the voucher program. I'd expect like 160m in the next FY. Next FY or immediately after is the ideal time to launch a successor if they want to avoid a large scale drop in revenue.

The point is rather that - relative to other Nintendo systems like DS and Wii - the software decline is slower from a higher peak. If you put the comparison on a graph, the difference is noticeable.

I'm not pointing that out to say new hardware won't happen; I think Nintendo have new hardware out sometime between the end of this year and the middle of next, before Switch slows any further, and I think that's the right thing to do.

 

[Bosintang]

I mean, i just don't think that MK9 can look that much better, and am struggling to think how it really can entice people to pay 60€ outside of hardcores, but i would be more then happy if its true.
I just doubt it, to me it feels like they would have spaced the DLC differently and made less if they are already actively working on MK9.
Launching with just the regular amount of Courses will be a huge cutback. Think, MK8 Deluxe already came with way more then the base MK8 and any other Mario Kart. To me this now feels similar to Smash Ultimate: hard to get people on board with starting "from scratch".

By the way, bought MK8 twice (WiiU + DLC, Switch) and lost my switch cart, so im all in on MK9 since i cant reason paying a third time for the base game to pay for DLC to experience the new Courses.

For both Smash and Mario Kart, they'll have to innovate. And for the latter at least, there are many ways to do so. For instance, Diddy Kong left a niche (more like a crater) that was never really filled.

 

[Concernt]

One doesn't have to look farther than the only two systems to sell more than 150m to find a couple good examples of that.

Huh, that's a good point! DS and PS2 were both backwards compatible and both launched while the previous system was still doing very well indeed, especially as regards software sales.

You know, it's odd just how well remembered, successful and well supported GBA was given its miniscule lifespan. Switch 2 could launch tommorow and that would still give the original Switch about double the lifespan of GBA.

 

[Concernt]

This is suspicious.
I suppose they're hinting at playable Zelda, but it is odd.

Part of me wants to point out that it has the same colour scheme as Nintendo Switch OLED Model, with the white "handles", the dark grey back, and the long complication on the rear.

Another part of me wants to point out that complication isn't just shaped differently, but lines up with previous leaks, rumours and speculation about the new kickstand, and that Nintendo is well aware of the impact their marketing has, and that they knew, more or less, that Switch 2 would trend after something like this.

Something I try to keep in mind, and maybe I'm wrong, so correct me if I am, but,

Nintendo isn't stupid.
Nvidia isn't stupid.
Nikkei isn't stupid!

They know what they're implying when they post things, they know what people will think, and they do it anyway and then, rather than denying anything, let people wind themselves up. And it works!

Nintendo knows that the demand for a new Switch is bubbling over, that lightning is going to strike and they need to be there with their bottle or die trying. They know.

The question is merely when they act on it.

 

[SiG]

Nintendo knows that the demand for a new Switch is bubbling over, that lightning is going to strike and they need to be there with their bottle or die trying. They know.

I don't think it is lightning they're trying to capture in bottles, but faries.

After all, "Nintendo is always DOOMED" so it's nice to have them around.

 

[Serif]

Sheikah Slate being upgraded from a Wii U to a Switch tablet is cute and reminds me of Pokedexes from previous gens being designed like Game Boy / DS. Now the Pokedexes are mobile phones which is kind of boring in comparison.

 

[Concernt]

Sheikah Slate being upgraded from a Wii U to a Switch tablet is cute and reminds me of Pokedexes from previous gens being designed like Game Boy / DS. Now the Pokedexes are mobile phones which is kind of boring in comparison.

Honestly I think the mobile phone thing in Pokémon is one of the worst pieces of world building and art design I've seen come from the main series. It's always been that in the Pokémon world, the Pokédex came first due to its near universal usefulness, and the mobile phone got built on top of that. In our world, mobile phones came first, then the encyclopedias accessible on them came after.

That said, it does sorta make sense. Everyone realistically needs a phone nowadays, but not everyone, even in the world of Pokémon, needs a Dex, so it makes more sense for the manufacturing industry to pivot towards general purpose devices that happen to have Dexes, like how PDAs were displaced by mobile phones in our world, Dexes were displaced by Rotom Phones.

However, I would like to point out that the RotomDex is a tablet an awful lot like the Nintendo Switch! Pokémon also isn't the only series with these. The Koppad in Pikmin, the GameBoy Horror and its successors in Luigi's Mansion, the Tingle Tuner, Dee Ess (Island), Sheikah Slate and Zonai Slab in Zelda, and I'm sure I'm forgetting one.

I'd love to see the next Pokémon game take a step back and rethink the Dex. Like, actually let us ring trainers on command, the phone in Animal Crossing can't do this for some godforsaken reason when they removed the megaphone item. But design wise, I think, maybe a new, flat-sided Rotom Phone, and when you meet the professor, they add "Dex Modules" for cataloguing Pokémon. Including an IR camera, new sensors and new controls, that attach onto the side of your Rotom Phone. So it can "Switch" from phone to Dex.

Much more interesting than an app!

 

[Look over there]

Some folks in the thread I posted yesterday believe there will be a bigger gap between Switch 2/PS5 than there was between Switch/PS4.

Is this based on anything concrete? I don't get it.

IMO, the one place where I'd be concerned about the gap would be single thread CPU strength. There's just such a large jump in clocks from PS4 to PS5 (3.5/1.6 = 2.1875x). A78's a little better than monolithic Zen 2, but I'd still say you'd want at least to be in the 2-2.2 ghz range to stay in the ballpark of similar ratio of single thread strength. (not counting the difference in FP/vector throughput of 2x128 vs 2x256 bit, but I don't think that's as important for gaming related stuff?)
Multithread is fine since the biggest contributor of the Switch/PS4 gap was the sheer difference in core count, and that's dealt with. Yea yea yea, Zen 2 has SMT/Simultaneous Multi-Threading. On average, that's not a miracle worker; it is not reliably anywhere near a doubling in multithread.

Whether there'll be a storage speed gap is up in the air. If we end up with eUFS for internal/UFS card for external, Drake's fine.
The key here is that the PS5's speed advantage is self neutered by the existence of PC ports. Once you go into PC space, you are restricted by your target userbase. Are you targeting playability on HDD? Directly off of a SD card on a Steam Deck? On the base Steam Deck's eMMC? On SATA SSD's? PCIe gen 3 NVMe drives? Gen 4?

Graphics scale more easily, so I never was all that worried about that.

It circles back to CPU strength. But I think that the space between PS4 level CPU and PS5 level CPU still allows for a lot of game design for the time being. I mean really, what ideas right now, really, truly need strength that would snap a PS4 in two? Besides disaster level swarm of plague rats. And whatever fucked up programming strategy misfire happened with Arkham Knights.

 

[Hairway to Steven]

IMO, the one place where I'd be concerned about the gap would be single thread CPU strength. There's just such a large jump in clocks from PS4 to PS5 (3.5/1.6 = 2.1875x). A78's a little better than monolithic Zen 2, but I'd still say you'd want at least to be in the 2-2.2 ghz range to stay in the ballpark of similar ratio of single thread strength. (not counting the difference in FP/vector throughput of 2x128 vs 2x256 bit, but I don't think that's as important for gaming related stuff?)
Multithread is fine since the biggest contributor of the Switch/PS4 gap was the sheer difference in core count, and that's dealt with. Yea yea yea, Zen 2 has SMT/Simultaneous Multi-Threading. On average, that's not a miracle worker; it is not reliably anywhere near a doubling in multithread.

Whether there'll be a storage speed gap is up in the air. If we end up with eUFS for internal/UFS card for external, Drake's fine.
The key here is that the PS5's speed advantage is self neutered by the existence of PC ports. Once you go into PC space, you are restricted by your target userbase. Are you targeting playability on HDD? Directly off of a SD card on a Steam Deck? On the base Steam Deck's eMMC? On SATA SSD's? PCIe gen 3 NVMe drives? Gen 4?

Graphics scale more easily, so I never was all that worried about that.

It circles back to CPU strength. But I think that the space between PS4 level CPU and PS5 level CPU still allows for a lot of game design for the time being. I mean really, what ideas right now, really, truly need strength that would snap a PS4 in two? Besides disaster level swarm of plague rats. And whatever fucked up programming strategy misfire happened with Arkham Knights.

Well, inevitably, 3rd parties will begin taking full advantage of PS5 hardware and that, some fear, might put their games out of the Switch's league entirely.

 

[ccff]

I mean, i just don't think that MK9 can look that much better, and am struggling to think how it really can entice people to pay 60€ outside of hardcores, but i would be more then happy if its true.

Mario Kart 8 is essentially a Wii u game that came out in 2014, so it's two generations apart from the Switch 2 exclusive Mario Kart 9, which would make for a pretty obvious graphical difference.
The number of tracks in Mario Kart 9 is likely not a small number considering they haven't made a major new game since ARMS, and it's unlikely they're only working on Mario Kart 8 DLC and Mario Kart Tour, so it's likely that Mario Kart 9 has been in development for a long time already.
Also, wasn't Mario Kart 8 selling for 60€ in many European countries? If Mario Kart 9 is 60€, I don't see it hurting sales.

 

[Concernt]

Well, inevitably, 3rd parties will begin taking full advantage of PS5 hardware and that, some fear, might put their games out of the Switch's league entirely.

I don't think many will, and certainly not anytime soon.

Making more use of hardware, outside of more headroom for lack of optimisation, almost always means more assets, more staff and more money needs to be invested into something. A game that takes "full advantage" of the PS5 may never be economically feasible for a third party developer because reaching that bar would take monumental investments of time and money.

Technologies that make making use of better hardware easier inevitably and invariably means tools that make games more scalable, but that usually goes both ways, with Unreal Engine 5 being one example, but also AI applications in gaming. DLSS makes "running games at 4K with raytracing and 30 teraflops of performance" easier, and it makes getting to 4K from a mobile chipset easier.

A lot of the forward momentum in software development tools has been scalability, which will advantage the next Nintendo console just like it has advantaged the Switch.

 

[Hairway to Steven]

I don't think many will, and certainly not anytime soon.

Making more use of hardware, outside of more headroom for lack of optimisation, almost always means more assets, more staff and more money needs to be invested into something. A game that takes "full advantage" of the PS5 may never be economically feasible for a third party developer because reaching that bar would take monumental investments of time and money.

Technologies that make making use of better hardware easier inevitably and invariably means tools that make games more scalable, but that usually goes both ways, with Unreal Engine 5 being one example, but also AI applications in gaming. DLSS makes "running games at 4K with raytracing and 30 teraflops of performance" easier, and it makes getting to 4K from a mobile chipset easier.

A lot of the forward momentum in software development tools has been scalability, which will advantage the next Nintendo console just like it has advantaged the Switch.

Yes. And I guess it will all boil down to whether or not 3rd parties want to put in the effort to optimize the games for Switch 2.

 

[John Omaha]

Well, inevitably, 3rd parties will begin taking full advantage of PS5 hardware and that, some fear, might put their games out of the Switch's league entirely.

I don't think many will, and certainly not anytime soon.

Making more use of hardware, outside of more headroom for lack of optimisation, almost always means more assets, more staff and more money needs to be invested into something. A game that takes "full advantage" of the PS5 may never be economically feasible for a third party developer because reaching that bar would take monumental investments of time and money.

Technologies that make making use of better hardware easier inevitably and invariably means tools that make games more scalable, but that usually goes both ways, with Unreal Engine 5 being one example, but also AI applications in gaming. DLSS makes "running games at 4K with raytracing and 30 teraflops of performance" easier, and it makes getting to 4K from a mobile chipset easier.

A lot of the forward momentum in software development tools has been scalability, which will advantage the next Nintendo console just like it has advantaged the Switch.

To add to this, if a game does take full advantage of the PS5, then any somewhat significant gap would be enough of a reason for the developer to skip the Switch 2.

 

[Deleted member 887]

i...really cant see a MK9 early when they are pumping the DLC for MK8 full with tracks.

Given Mario Kart sales profile, you want it to be released as early as possible in the life of a new console.
Also, unless Nintendo became suddenly creatively bankrupt, I do not believe that the hook of Mario Kart 9 will be "more of the same", like Smash and MK8DX were.

. I think Mario Kart 9 will be there early in the launch cycle, possibly day 1. It will be a NSO subscription driver and Nintendo will bring new tracks/content to it for years, so even if they "only" start with like 16 tracks, it will grow way past that with constant DLC.

Mario Kart 9 already exists. It's called Mario Kart: Tour, and it's a live service title. MK8DX receiving its tracks shows, and it being connected to NSO, is a model for Nintendo to do live service themselves. Spend 60 bucks for a base number of tracks, pay 50 bucks a year for more tracks on a drip feed.

Not saying MKX can't or won't happen. But I have 0 confidence that we'll get another Mario Kart title anytime in the next half decade.

 

[robertman2]

Mario Kart 9 will almost certainly be out for the Switch 2 within the first 6 months.

 

[Concernt]

To add to this, if a game does take full advantage of the PS5, then any somewhat significant gap would be enough of a reason for the developer to skip the Switch 2.

That depends on what you consider "full advantage".

A PS5 game that takes "full advantage" of the console by rendering the game at 4K could well survive on Drake by rendering at 540p, 1080p DLSS, and making up for the weaker CPU by reallocating tasks to the GPU and AI portions of the SOC.

This is what happened with the Witcher 3, a game that is genuinely very well optimised but also incredibly demanding, that got onto Switch despite pushing the 8th generation consoles, by reallocating CPU tasks to the GPU and making room for them by lowering the rendering resolution.

I'm oversimplifying here but, the gap may not be small, but it's small enough that those edge cases are more a case of "it would take an extra 1-2 years to optimise this to make it run acceptably on Switch Drake" rather than it being impossible.

 

[Concernt]

Mario Kart 9 will almost certainly be out for the Switch 2 within the first 6 months.

I'm not so sure about that, Mario Kart 8 has new content coming out for it until the end of this year. Switch 2 could be out before the end of Mario Kart 8.

That said, I think it may be possible, even advantageous, for the new Mario Kart to come out fairly soon after the BCP finishes up, so Nintendo always has "new Mario Kart" content to sell.

Evergreen title sales are waning, eventually, they need to be replaced. This doesn't mean inevitable failure for these "replacements" in the marketplace. Splatoon 3 replaced an evergreen Splatoon 2, TOTK will probably cause BOTW to cease to be "evergreen" and become the new "evergreen" Zelda.

Mario Kart isn't immune to this, even if it remains one of the best selling games year after year, even Grand Theft Auto 6 had to be announced eventually, no matter how successful 5 has been.

 

[Ojoloco]

I just wouldn't be afraid if it can move future games or not.

You just have to see how a steam deck, which I think is similar to what is expected of Drake, moves very demanding next gen games like Plague Tale Requiem in a quite acceptable way. Or games with disastrous optimization everywhere like forspoken also work without being a disaster.


At the end of the day, everything will come down to whether the company wants to port it.