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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

All the games shown also made it out that year.

There was however very weird take online at that old place that it was DOA hanging on the thinnest of complaints. I almost feel like it was a level of COPE by people who wanted Nintendo to fail.
Not SMT V. That game took a lil bit to come out.

It's why I bought a Switch lol so it was quite a painful wait. At least I got to enjoy Splatoon 2 and Fire Emblem Three Houses as a consolation prize. (Didn't buy Breath of the Wild until a lot later, when I could get it cheap...ish. Bought and enjoyed on Wii U.)
 
Not SMT V. That game took a lil bit to come out.

It's why I bought a Switch lol so it was quite a painful wait. At least I got to enjoy Splatoon 2 and Fire Emblem Three Houses as a consolation prize. (Didn't buy Breath of the Wild until a lot later, when I could get it cheap...ish. Bought and enjoyed on Wii U.)
Showcased in the first presentation.

And came out close to end of Switch's life, lol.

SMTV is firmly in my top 5 RPGs of all time. Higher on my list above P5R
 
I don't think they'll rely much on "impossible ports" for the presentation... I guess it'll be much like Skyrim on the reveal trailer and then the presentation. They'll have one game to WOW people on the reveal trailer and one to showcase multiplayer. The presentation will definitely have more ports and probably some early in development stuff(Shin Megami Tensei 666 being the prime candidate), but the focus will still be on the next Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing (if it's ready to be shown) and cross gen games.
 
I don't think they'll rely much on "impossible ports" for the presentation... I guess it'll be much like Skyrim on the reveal trailer and then the presentation. They'll have one game to WOW people on the reveal trailer and one to showcase multiplayer. The presentation will definitely have more ports and probably some early in development stuff(Shin Megami Tensei 666 being the prime candidate), but the focus will still be on the next Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing (if it's ready to be shown) and cross gen games.
Given the visuals of New Horizons, I am so ready for them to show off their vision of a "next gen" Animal Crossing
 
I don't think it will.

I remember watching some YouTuber reactions to the Switch reveal. I remember Arlo saying, before the reveal came up on screen "one thing I'm sure of, if we're getting this handheld, tv hybrid wakiness, no way it's more powerful than the Wii U. Probably less."

That seems completely ridiculous now, but Nintendo had put Smash and Mario Maker onto the 3DS, which also had things like 3D Land to the Wii U's 3D World, and the regular handheld Mario Kart. Nintendo could, with really clever development, make "cut down" versions of games that ran on a handheld, package them with the "big" versions. A 4DS, if you will, that just happened to plug into a screen seemed totally believable. Nintendo could make games that played on a potato look good, and Nintendo fans were ready for "a box that just plays games, and Nintendo games that are just Nintendo games."

The pitch was "a TV console in your hand," but with Nintendo's history, it would be easy to interpret the pitch as "a handheld you can play on your TV." You didn't know anything about Mario Odyssey, and very little about Zelda. But Skyrim was a known quantity. Seeing Skyrim in that reveal trailer wasn't about the graphics, it was about throwing down the gauntlet and saying "no, this isn't specialized ports, or Nintendo magic, or just some games, these are big, full fat experiences. Look at Skyrim on that TV. That's the Skyrim you know. The big ass game. See that guy playing on the plane? He's playing the same Skyrim. The same big ass, uncut experience."

You can't say that message again, the audience already knows it. And now that they've lived with it for so long, they've forgotten that the time before hearing it. And if you repeat it to them, they will instinctively hear the asterisks they've learned over 7 years of living with it.

Last gen ports. Rare current gen games ported by incredible studios, that are still huge visual compromises. Subnative resolution. Lowered frame rates.

Show them Elden Ring? "It better be on there, that's a PS4 game" The wow factor of playing a big game in your hand is gone. Show them ray traced ambient occlusion on every pore on The Tarnished's face, and most people won't notice it looking better than their memory of the game from years ago, even if it is better than the reality. Even if they've got a sharp eye and played the game yesterday they're watching Elden Ring on a tiny screen, played by a person inside a compressed YouTube video, which they're watching on their phones. You could put their Grandma on that screen and they wouldn't recognize her.

That's one of the reasons that Sony and Microsoft talk so much about the numbers. They offer the same experience every generation, the only improvement is in performance, and as each generation goes on, it becomes harder and harder to show you the performance without actually putting the controller in someone's hand and making them feel it.

Assuming that what we get is, at heart, "a more powerful Switch" I don't think Nintendo needs to sell us on the Switch part again. That isn't just "its a TV console in your hand." But the whole Switch generation. I don't think they need to convince the average player about third party games. I think what they need, honestly, is Nintendo games. Exclusives, with Mario doing things that feel new when we watch him do them, in a world that feels like it could never go on the Switch.

That will sell the leap better than a game I can already play on my Steam Deck.

I agree that they should (and will) focus on Nintendo games when revealing the system, and honestly, that's what they did with the Switch as well. People like to focus on Skyrim in the Switch reveal, but people bought the Switch for Zelda and Mario, not Skyrim.

Therein lies an issue for Nintendo, though. In the last fiscal year, Nintendo reported an 81% ratio of first party sales to total software sales. That's good for Nintendo in one way, as they're selling a lot of games, but in another way it's not so good for Nintendo, as people who want to buy third party games aren't doing it on Nintendo's platform. Nintendo has 100% of the market share for Nintendo games, but relatively little market share for non-Nintendo games. If Nintendo wants to find avenues to grow their business with Switch 2, then taking a bigger part of that third party pie is a pretty big one.

Of course, this requires third parties to actually release their flagship titles on Switch 2, and not several years after the fact. On that count I do think Switch 2 will be in a better place than Switch, for a few reasons. Firstly, technically it should be less hamstrung relative to XBSS/X/PS5 than Switch was relative to XBO/PS4. Certainly not without limitations, and I can see the reduced CPU performance relative to the home consoles nixing a few ports, but it feels like AAA games will require less herculean efforts to port over compared to Switch.

Secondly, I think the business situation has changed. After 140+ million units, third parties will likely give Nintendo more of a benefit of the doubt than they did with Switch, following the Wii U. Perhaps more importantly, though, it seems like third parties have finally realised that if you're going to spend a boatload of cash on making a game, then not releasing it on every single device under the sun that can possibly play it is a mistake. Square Enix have already talked about going "aggressively multiplatform", specifically referring to Nintendo in the process, and I wouldn't be surprised if other publishers were making similar moves internally.

Coming back to how they reveal the system, I'm sure they'll focus on the new Mario and whatever other launch-year Nintendo titles they want to highlight, but they don't want to give the impression that it's a device solely for playing Nintendo games. That likely means show a sports game or two (FIFA EAFC/NBA2K, like the original Switch trailer), plus one or two other big third party games.

I agree that Elden Ring wouldn't be that impressive to show here, as people will already expect that the console will get late ports of PS4 games. Honestly I don't even think Baldur's Gate 3 would be that impressive, even if it's current gen only, it will be over a year old by the time they reveal the system, and close to two years old by the time they launch it. Less old than Skyrim was, for sure, but still an old game.

The two third party games I think make the most sense to show in the Switch 2 reveal are Assassin's Creed Shadows, and the new Call of Duty. These are the two biggest third party releases of the holiday season, and if the reveal is around the same October timeline, they won't even have released yet; they'll be near the peak of their hype and advertising campaigns. If Nintendo wants to convince people that Switch 2 is a place to play third party games, then going from showing a big game that's 5 years old to showing big games that are brand new would be a very effective way of doing so. The fact that it's a small snippet of a small screen in a video, which would make an old game like Elden Ring look less impressive does the opposite here; it closes the apparent gap between Switch 2 and the big stationary boxes that Sony and MS sell.

On AC Shadows, the big question is whether it's even coming to the platform. Nintendo have a good relationship with Ubisoft, but Assassin's Creed games are typically pretty CPU intensive, so that may be a blocker given the weaker CPU on Switch 2, particularly if the game is 30fps on other consoles (which AC games usually are) as it removes the option of dropping from to 30fps on the Switch 2 version. Call of Duty is a much safer option, because Microsoft are legally forced to release a version of it for Nintendo's platform, regardless of whatever technical issues may get in the way.
 
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So, after that update on firmware to allow 240fps, is possible the next Mario Kart came with these options? (On TV mode only)

Performance Mode (no Ray Tracing)
  • 1080p and 240fps (DLSS Ultra)
  • 144p and 120fps (DLSS high)
  • 4K and 60fps (DLSS low)
Quality Mode (ray tracing) - 60fps only
  • 1080p and high ray tracing (DLSS ultra)
  • 1440p and medium ray trance (DLSS high)
  • 4K and low ray tracing (DLSS medium)
If that Nintendo give us that kind o option, I will ever choose the best image quality over any fps or resolution gain.

yes and you choose the mode via a dip switch on the cartridge (that is actually what Pyoro was teasing)
 
99% chance…are you sure?

Nintendo will want to showcase BOTW impressive enhanced graphics/load times early on the console life so yes I'm pretty sure

They will want to show off something like this pretty quick even though it's a remaster, while reassuring that they are working on the next-gen Zelda still

 
Given the visuals of New Horizons, I am so ready for them to show off their vision of a "next gen" Animal Crossing
The amount of visual features and details of New Horizons is just amazing. Truly a game that's much more in line with Xbox One/PS4 than PS360.

I can't even think how amazing the next game will look. They'll take their time and I guess early 2026 is when it comes, so they can even announce it in June. But who knows, maybe Mario Kart comes earlier than Fall and we have AC for the holiday season.

They had Splatoon 2 on the reveal trailer of the Switch so maybe they have AC this time.
 
The amount of visual features and details of New Horizons is just amazing. Truly a game that's much more in line with Xbox One/PS4 than PS360.

I can't even think how amazing the next game will look. They'll take their time and I guess early 2026 is when it comes, so they can even announce it in June. But who knows, maybe Mario Kart comes earlier than Fall and we have AC for the holiday season.

They had Splatoon 2 on the reveal trailer of the Switch so maybe they have AC this time.
That's sort of what I'd expect, given the scale of the Animal Crossing franchise. Business wise I'd guess they want AC New Generation to come in hot during the first year of the console. I wouldn't be surprised if there was pressure on Pokémon to launch PLZA cross-gen with a focus on the new console and/or have a cross-gen title ready for holiday '25.

I'd expect a new Pokémon generation in 2026, that's about on schedule and the 30th anniversary.

They have all their future eggs in this one basket, I imagine they want to make sure it starts on the best footing they can.
 
Finally played with the Jetson power estimator tool, and it truly is damning evidence against 8nm. Even looking at the Orin Nano with 4 CPU cores at 960Mhz and 1024 GPU cores at 306Mhz still draws 7.6W. I would direct anyone still claiming 8nm to go the site, play around with the tool, and it quickly becomes apparent that 1536 GPU cores and 8 cpu cores simply doesn't work on 8nm. Even with super low clocks, it would pull at least 50% more power than the V1 Switch units and this is being generous.
 
The two third party games I think make the most sense to show in the Switch 2 reveal are Assassin's Creed Shadows, and the new Call of Duty. These are the two biggest third party releases of the holiday season, and if the reveal is around the same October timeline, they won't even have released yet; they'll be near the peak of their hype and advertising campaigns. If Nintendo wants to convince people that Switch 2 is a place to play third party games, then going from showing a big game that's 5 years old to showing big games that are brand new would be a very effective way of doing so. The fact that it's a small snippet of a small screen in a video, which would make an old game like Elden Ring look less impressive does the opposite here; it closes the apparent gap between Switch 2 and the big stationary boxes that Sony and MS sell.
This is really smart. We're so used to Nintendo consoles getting late ports - pre-Switch era as well - that "COD is coming day one" would be the kind of drop that, in just a half second of footage, would casually redefine how the console is perceived. Building on, but not exactly replicated, the Skyrim reveal.

In fact, we're so used to Nintendo consoles getting late ports, that it didn't cross my mind that was a possibility. Not showing off power, so much, as showing off the mission statement of the console - "these games are here."
 
Finally played with the Jetson power estimator tool, and it truly is damning evidence against 8nm. Even looking at the Orin Nano with 4 CPU cores at 960Mhz and 1024 GPU cores at 306Mhz still draws 7.6W. I would direct anyone still claiming 8nm to go the site, play around with the tool, and it quickly becomes apparent that 1536 GPU cores and 8 cpu cores simply doesn't work on 8nm. Even with super low clocks, it would pull at least 50% more power than the V1 Switch units and this is being generous.
Is this the one you played with? I tried playing with this yesterday and gave up when I was unsure which platform I should select from the dropdown (was planning on searching for posts in this thread for any explanation of how to use the power estimator tool)

I have it set to Nano currently but where do I set it to 1024 GPU cores? The closest I got to your 7.6W figure was if I set GPU TPCs to 2 (CPU cores is already set to 4).

(if you know of any good comments in this thread explaining the power estimator tool and have it bookmarked, point me to that and I can try to pick up the rest)
 
I agree that they should (and will) focus on Nintendo games when revealing the system, and honestly, that's what they did with the Switch as well. People like to focus on Skyrim in the Switch reveal, but people bought the Switch for Zelda and Mario, not Skyrim.

Therein lies an issue for Nintendo, though. In the last fiscal year, over 80% of software sold on Switch was Nintendo's. That's good for Nintendo in one way, as they're selling a lot of games, but in another way it's not so good for Nintendo, as people who want to buy third party games aren't doing it on Nintendo's platform. Nintendo has 100% of the market share for Nintendo games, but relatively little market share for non-Nintendo games. If Nintendo wants to find avenues to grow their business with Switch 2, then taking a bigger part of that third party pie is a pretty big one.

Of course, this requires third parties to actually release their flagship titles on Switch 2, and not several years after the fact. On that count I do think Switch 2 will be in a better place than Switch, for a few reasons. Firstly, technically it should be less hamstrung relative to XBSS/X/PS5 than Switch was relative to XBO/PS4. Certainly not without limitations, and I can see the reduced CPU performance relative to the home consoles nixing a few ports, but it feels like AAA games will require less herculean efforts to port over compared to Switch.

Secondly, I think the business situation has changed. After 140+ million units, third parties will likely give Nintendo more of a benefit of the doubt than they did with Switch, following the Wii U. Perhaps more importantly, though, it seems like third parties have finally realised that if you're going to spend a boatload of cash on making a game, then not releasing it on every single device under the sun that can possibly play it is a mistake. Square Enix have already talked about going "aggressively multiplatform", specifically referring to Nintendo in the process, and I wouldn't be surprised if other publishers were making similar moves internally.

Coming back to how they reveal the system, I'm sure they'll focus on the new Mario and whatever other launch-year Nintendo titles they want to highlight, but they don't want to give the impression that it's a device solely for playing Nintendo games. That likely means show a sports game or two (FIFA EAFC/NBA2K, like the original Switch trailer), plus one or two other big third party games.

I agree that Elden Ring wouldn't be that impressive to show here, as people will already expect that the console will get late ports of PS4 games. Honestly I don't even think Baldur's Gate 3 would be that impressive, even if it's current gen only, it will be over a year old by the time they reveal the system, and close to two years old by the time they launch it. Less old than Skyrim was, for sure, but still an old game.

The two third party games I think make the most sense to show in the Switch 2 reveal are Assassin's Creed Shadows, and the new Call of Duty. These are the two biggest third party releases of the holiday season, and if the reveal is around the same October timeline, they won't even have released yet; they'll be near the peak of their hype and advertising campaigns. If Nintendo wants to convince people that Switch 2 is a place to play third party games, then going from showing a big game that's 5 years old to showing big games that are brand new would be a very effective way of doing so. The fact that it's a small snippet of a small screen in a video, which would make an old game like Elden Ring look less impressive does the opposite here; it closes the apparent gap between Switch 2 and the big stationary boxes that Sony and MS sell.

On AC Shadows, the big question is whether it's even coming to the platform. Nintendo have a good relationship with Ubisoft, but Assassin's Creed games are typically pretty CPU intensive, so that may be a blocker given the weaker CPU on Switch 2, particularly if the game is 30fps on other consoles (which AC games usually are) as it removes the option of dropping from to 30fps on the Switch 2 version. Call of Duty is a much safer option, because Microsoft are legally forced to release a version of it for Nintendo's platform, regardless of whatever technical issues may get in the way.
One nitpick: Not over 80% of software sold last FY was first party. It‘s over 80% of consolidated sales. And obviously first party sales generate (a lot) more revenue for Nintendo. So the real ratio between 1st:3rd party sales on Switch is less in favour of Nintendos own games. It‘s still way higher compared to the competition.
 
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I’m trying to catch up with this thread but it’s moving so fast haha. I’ve just read on the DF 2050 test but here is a laptop that has rtx 2050



Now if we ignore the CPU which is clearly a Zen3+, clocks way higher than what the A78C but has 6 cores/12 threads it is probably a good ballpark on what the switch 2 GPU is capable of.

I’m more than happy if games play as good or better thanks to more ram and console optimizations. The Witcher 3 and RDR2 are using higher graphics settings than the PS4/Pro which is good

Oh yeah I am anticipating an Alan Wake 2 port. I'm surprised at how well that looked/ran.
 
Therein lies an issue for Nintendo, though. In the last fiscal year, over 80% of software sold on Switch was Nintendo's. That's good for Nintendo in one way, as they're selling a lot of games, but in another way it's not so good for Nintendo, as people who want to buy third party games aren't doing it on Nintendo's platform. Nintendo has 100% of the market share for Nintendo games, but relatively little market share for non-Nintendo games. If Nintendo wants to find avenues to grow their business with Switch 2, then taking a bigger part of that third party pie is a pretty big one.
That's not true, the figure you quote (81% for the last FY) should not be read that way.

For each 1st party game sold, Nintendo takes into account 100% of the game's price as revenue in their financials. This is different from what is happening with 3rd party games where they only take into account their cut (so around 30%).

The 81% reported therefore transforms to 56% in terms of revenue (and it doesn't take into account digital only games which are dominated by 3rd parties).

We are probably close to 50/50 between the two and an argument could be made that when you factor DLC/MTX, it favors even more 3rd parties (since Nintendo doesn't offer MTX in their games).
 
AYN-Odin-2-Mini.jpg


Ayn Odin 2 Mini Retro handheld

  • Snapdragon 8 Gen2 (4nm)
  • Adreno 740 GPU
  • 12 GB LPDDR5X RAM
  • UFS 4.0 256 GB
  • 1080p 5'' Mini LED touch screen
  • Video output through Micro HDMI
  • 5000 mAH battery

$399.99

Source.

I know nothing about Ayn's margins or the scale at which they manufacture, just posting for comparison's sake.

I am pretty certain I read somewhere that Adreno 740 < T239 GPU, but I was unable to dig up the specifications.
 
Something on my mind since the Ounce's storage spec leaked: considering how insanely fast it is, do y'all think nintendo is gonna pivot to disc/cart installs like Sony and MS? I'm not up to date on cart tech or what Nintendo may be using for Ounce, but it seems impossible for cart-based storage to keep up
 
AYN-Odin-2-Mini.jpg


Ayn Odin 2 Mini Retro handheld

  • Snapdragon 8 Gen2 (4nm)
  • Adreno 740 GPU
  • 12 GB LPDDR5X RAM
  • UFS 4.0 256 GB
  • 1080p 5'' Mini LED touch screen
  • Video output through Micro HDMI
  • 5000 mAH battery

$399.99

Source.

I know nothing about Ayn's margins or the scale at which they manufacture, just posting for comparison's sake.

I am pretty certain I read somewhere that Adreno 740 < T239 GPU, but I was unable to dig up the specifications.
Nice. Many specs seem to match, while others are a bit off.
 
Nice. Many specs seem to match, while others are a bit off.
Yup - main ones being UFS 4.0 instead of UFS 3.1. That's a plus for Odin 2 I guess.

However, screen is significantly smaller (5") compared to rumored 7.9" screens for Switch 2. A pretty big minus for Odin 2.

Other than CPU/GPU also being different and the mAH rating of Switch 2 battery being unknown, almost everything else seems to line up spec-wise for Switch 2. Even the projected pricing too ($400), lol.
 
Yup - main ones being UFS 4.0 instead of UFS 3.1. That's a plus for Odin 2 I guess.

However, screen is significantly smaller (5") compared to rumored 7.9" screens for Switch 2. A pretty big minus for Odin 2.

Other than CPU/GPU also being different and the mAH rating of Switch 2 battery being unknown, almost everything else seems to line up spec-wise for Switch 2. Even the projected pricing too ($400), lol.
Well, but its a miniLED!
 
AYN-Odin-2-Mini.jpg


Ayn Odin 2 Mini Retro handheld

  • Snapdragon 8 Gen2 (4nm)
  • Adreno 740 GPU
  • 12 GB LPDDR5X RAM
  • UFS 4.0 256 GB
  • 1080p 5'' Mini LED touch screen
  • Video output through Micro HDMI
  • 5000 mAH battery

$399.99

Source.

I know nothing about Ayn's margins or the scale at which they manufacture, just posting for comparison's sake.

I am pretty certain I read somewhere that Adreno 740 < T239 GPU, but I was unable to dig up the specifications.
As I was reading this, this image appeared in my head and now I have to share it:
2lcj8l.jpg
 
Is this the one you played with? I tried playing with this yesterday and gave up when I was unsure which platform I should select from the dropdown (was planning on searching for posts in this thread for any explanation of how to use the power estimator tool)

I have it set to Nano currently but where do I set it to 1024 GPU cores? The closest I got to your 7.6W figure was if I set GPU TPCs to 2 (CPU cores is already set to 4).

(if you know of any good comments in this thread explaining the power estimator tool and have it bookmarked, point me to that and I can try to pick up the rest)
I can walk you through it.

The top pulldown sets the Jetson board you're using. The Xaviers you can ignore. All Orin chips are the same hardware - AGX Industrial is the highest quality chip, so it has all of it's parts enabled, and enables the highest clock speeds. The other two AGX boards are the second highest quality, and the two of them should give you the same results. In fact, I think you get a little warning when you select the 32GB version saying just that. NX and Nano have variants, which they package up with different quantities of RAM.

For our purposes, you want to pick the smallest chip that has enough cores for you to test the config you want. That's gonna be the Orin AGX 32GB.

Don't worry about the Jetpack version. Orin's software comes with some preset power modes, that cap the power draw, and configure the hardware for specific use cases. You want everything on so you have total control - so set "Power Mode" to MAXN.

CPU settings should be straight forward - set your number of cores, and your clock speed. Note that you can't set arbitrary clock speeds, these are the clocks that Orin enables in firmware. Lower binned chips (like the Nano) turn off some high clock speeds, because they run too hot, and adds some extra low speeds that are very inefficient, but do offer tiny power savings where it really matters. Higher binned chips add some clock speeds at the top. If you want to experiment with those clocks, you'll need to change the chip you're working with, but the larger chips also have higher overhead, so be aware of it.

(a good way to show that is to make one configuration on NX, then make an identical config with AGX, and see the power draw differences)

The GPU widget doesn't configure cores, because you can't individually enable or disable GPU cores. You can't even individually disable SMs. SMs are in pairs inside of a TPC, and you can enable and disable those. Each TPC is 256 CUDA cores (2 SMs at 128 cores apiece). Frustratingly, you'll notice that Orin doesn't support 6 TPCs. It supports 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8. Why this is true is a whole tangent not worth getting into, but the short version is that Orin organizes it's TPCs in a different way than Drake or RTX 30.

DLA and PVA are the "deep learning accelerator" and the "programmable vision array." This is hardware that Drake doesn't have so leave them off. Below them is the EMC widget. EMC = embedded memory controller. This is how fast the RAM goes. Orin has LPDDR5 memory, not the 5X that apparently is in Drake, so you can't actually set it to max Drake speed. You have two options, 3200Mhz (technically, 3199), which is full LPDDR5 speed, 102 GB/s, and 2133Mhz, which is ~66 GB/s, and underclocked MC

For handheld, I have long been assuming that Nintendo would run at the slower memory config, because 102GB/s is a lot of bandwidth for a handheld. And I still think they will, but if they've gone with 5X, maybe they're pushing the chip hard enough that 66GB/s isn't enough in the the portable config, and they go up to 102 for handheld, 120 for docked. But I'm just guessing. Regardless, you only have a couple options.

Each widget has three load settings. "Low, Medium, High." Unfortunately, not a lot of clarity on exactly what that means for each one, but you get the rough idea. Modern hardware can run at full clock speed, but at reduced power usage when idle. Low load means the system is running at full clock, but presumably it's getting little enough work that it doesn't actually eat more power than just being idle. Medium is some load, but enough where power consumption is still less than max. High is "you're running this subsystem at full capacity for an extended period of time, this system cannot drain more power, I cannae do it cap'n"

Thraktor's own analysis set the systems to Medium, because we care about "Running the latest Zelda numbers" but it's basically impossible to hit peak usage on memory and GPU and CPU at the same time. If one of them is slammed to the gills, the others will eventually get stuck waiting on it, and start to idle out. I've done the same when I've played with it, but sometimes people come in with wildly low power numbers, based on "Low", so don't trick yourselves.

Also worth noting that the boxes tend to reset themselves in not obvious ways when you move one of the sliders. So be careful you haven't accidentally reset Memory Clock while you were playing with GPU load.

Estimate power at the bottom does what you expect, but the GUI is also usually updating in real time as you move sliders, so sometimes it looks like Estimate Power doesn't do anything. Reset sets it back to the defaults for MAXN, and "Download" lets you download a config file to put Orin into the configuration you've set, only useful to you if you want to save your settings for later fiddling.
 
Speaking of which, since the t239 uses a different cpu core than the orin, I think the calculated gpu power is much more meaningful than the cpu power. only problem there's unfortunately no orin with 1536cuda.
Is this the one you played with? I tried playing with this yesterday and gave up when I was unsure which platform I should select from the dropdown (was planning on searching for posts in this thread for any explanation of how to use the power estimator tool)

I have it set to Nano currently but where do I set it to 1024 GPU cores? The closest I got to your 7.6W figure was if I set GPU TPCs to 2 (CPU cores is already set to 4).

(if you know of any good comments in this thread explaining the power estimator tool and have it bookmarked, point me to that and I can try to pick up the rest)
 
0
AYN-Odin-2-Mini.jpg


Ayn Odin 2 Mini Retro handheld

  • Snapdragon 8 Gen2 (4nm)
  • Adreno 740 GPU
  • 12 GB LPDDR5X RAM
  • UFS 4.0 256 GB
  • 1080p 5'' Mini LED touch screen
  • Video output through Micro HDMI
  • 5000 mAH battery

$399.99

Source.

I know nothing about Ayn's margins or the scale at which they manufacture, just posting for comparison's sake.

I am pretty certain I read somewhere that Adreno 740 < T239 GPU, but I was unable to dig up the specifications.
One thing to take in account is that Ayn sells hardwares so this price is accounting the profit they should have. Nintendo may not sell the Switch 2 at a loss, but at least, they can reduce the profit margins to reach this price point with better hardware.
 
I can walk you through it.

The top pulldown sets the Jetson board you're using. The Xaviers you can ignore. All Orin chips are the same hardware - AGX Industrial is the highest quality chip, so it has all of it's parts enabled, and enables the highest clock speeds. The other two AGX boards are the second highest quality, and the two of them should give you the same results. In fact, I think you get a little warning when you select the 32GB version saying just that. NX and Nano have variants, which they package up with different quantities of RAM.

For our purposes, you want to pick the smallest chip that has enough cores for you to test the config you want. That's gonna be the Orin AGX 32GB.

Don't worry about the Jetpack version. Orin's software comes with some preset power modes, that cap the power draw, and configure the hardware for specific use cases. You want everything on so you have total control - so set "Power Mode" to MAXN.

CPU settings should be straight forward - set your number of cores, and your clock speed. Note that you can't set arbitrary clock speeds, these are the clocks that Orin enables in firmware. Lower binned chips (like the Nano) turn off some high clock speeds, because they run too hot, and adds some extra low speeds that are very inefficient, but do offer tiny power savings where it really matters. Higher binned chips add some clock speeds at the top. If you want to experiment with those clocks, you'll need to change the chip you're working with, but the larger chips also have higher overhead, so be aware of it.

(a good way to show that is to make one configuration on NX, then make an identical config with AGX, and see the power draw differences)

The GPU widget doesn't configure cores, because you can't individually enable or disable GPU cores. You can't even individually disable SMs. SMs are in pairs inside of a TPC, and you can enable and disable those. Each TPC is 256 CUDA cores (2 SMs at 128 cores apiece). Frustratingly, you'll notice that Orin doesn't support 6 TPCs. It supports 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8. Why this is true is a whole tangent not worth getting into, but the short version is that Orin organizes it's TPCs in a different way than Drake or RTX 30.

DLA and PVA are the "deep learning accelerator" and the "programmable vision array." This is hardware that Drake doesn't have so leave them off. Below them is the EMC widget. EMC = embedded memory controller. This is how fast the RAM goes. Orin has LPDDR5 memory, not the 5X that apparently is in Drake, so you can't actually set it to max Drake speed. You have two options, 3200Mhz (technically, 3199), which is full LPDDR5 speed, 102 GB/s, and 2133Mhz, which is ~66 GB/s, and underclocked MC

For handheld, I have long been assuming that Nintendo would run at the slower memory config, because 102GB/s is a lot of bandwidth for a handheld. And I still think they will, but if they've gone with 5X, maybe they're pushing the chip hard enough that 66GB/s isn't enough in the the portable config, and they go up to 102 for handheld, 120 for docked. But I'm just guessing. Regardless, you only have a couple options.

Each widget has three load settings. "Low, Medium, High." Unfortunately, not a lot of clarity on exactly what that means for each one, but you get the rough idea. Modern hardware can run at full clock speed, but at reduced power usage when idle. Low load means the system is running at full clock, but presumably it's getting little enough work that it doesn't actually eat more power than just being idle. Medium is some load, but enough where power consumption is still less than max. High is "you're running this subsystem at full capacity for an extended period of time, this system cannot drain more power, I cannae do it cap'n"

Thraktor's own analysis set the systems to Medium, because we care about "Running the latest Zelda numbers" but it's basically impossible to hit peak usage on memory and GPU and CPU at the same time. If one of them is slammed to the gills, the others will eventually get stuck waiting on it, and start to idle out. I've done the same when I've played with it, but sometimes people come in with wildly low power numbers, based on "Low", so don't trick yourselves.

Also worth noting that the boxes tend to reset themselves in not obvious ways when you move one of the sliders. So be careful you haven't accidentally reset Memory Clock while you were playing with GPU load.

Estimate power at the bottom does what you expect, but the GUI is also usually updating in real time as you move sliders, so sometimes it looks like Estimate Power doesn't do anything. Reset sets it back to the defaults for MAXN, and "Download" lets you download a config file to put Orin into the configuration you've set, only useful to you if you want to save your settings for later fiddling.
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The Switch 2 having better texture quality, just because it has slightly bit more ram than the Series S is quite funny.

I’m still kinda shocked that Phil didn’t just make a 400USD all digital Xbox series x, but instead he went ahead and made the series s (good console for it price)
The $500 all digital Series X is coming though lol
 
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Yup - main ones being UFS 4.0 instead of UFS 3.1. That's a plus for Odin 2 I guess.

However, screen is significantly smaller (5") compared to rumored 7.9" screens for Switch 2. A pretty big minus for Odin 2.

Other than CPU/GPU also being different and the mAH rating of Switch 2 battery being unknown, almost everything else seems to line up spec-wise for Switch 2. Even the projected pricing too ($400), lol.
Racoon is gonna love it.
 
@oldpuck even with the Orin Nano, with super low clocks and only 4 cpu cores and 1024 GPU cores, it still draws more power than Erista Tegra X1. In order for 8nm to work, the SOC configuration would need to be something like 768 GPU cores and 4-6 CPU cores. Honestly, if they had been launching in 2022, that would have been a respectable setup.
 
Adreno 740 GPU
This is probably a pretty good deal. The Snapdragon chips get produced in decent numbers for cellphones, but phones rapidly move on year over year. The remaining chips then drop in price quickly and wind up in tablets, media devices, and smart TVs. Ayo doesn't need to guarantee exact compatibility across their hardware, so they can eyeball what the best bang for the buck Off-The-Shelf SOC is one year, even if it's just because there are a few hundred thousand extra lying around. They don't have to worry about long term supply.

The Adrendo 740 is a pretty excellent mobile GPU. It 1024 cores, with RT support. They claim something like 4TFLOPS peak, but not only do I doubt those chips are built to offer that peak for very long, or to maximize the performance of that peak speed. Even if Qualcomm was able to invest Nvidia level money, time, and engineering into their GPU designs (they can't), getting good bang-for-your-buck in mobile chips involves cutting things like cache, and simplifying things like the scheduler, which is the system that knows how to send work to the cores to make sure they're always running efficiently.

FLOP per FLOP, this isn't going to be able to keep up with an Nvidia design. It's probably more power efficient, especially at lower clock speeds, and certainly smaller/cheaper.
 
I don't think anyone said Nintendo was relying on 3rd parties?

If there are blockbuster 3rd party titles (AA, AAA) ready to be showcased, it'd be silly for Nintendo to not include those in the presentation (or whatever format Nintendo chooses to make the big Switch 2 reveal in).

Stealth is theorizing that we might see more this time around with Switch 2 reveal, that's all.
maybe relying wasn't the best word, but regardless, Nintendo isn't going to let third parties overtake their own games any more than they currently do for Switch presentations. and I think that's from past experiences, notably Wii U and 3DS

That is actually eerily similar, what the heck.
the vita is long since dead and those molds have been scrapped. it's not too surprising some company picked them out of the trash
 
That is actually eerily similar, what the heck.
It's 100% on purpose, it's an Android handheld intended for retro game emulation of PS2 and GameCube (and Switch... but shh). The Vita d-pad design is apparently beloved, I've never tried it.
 
@oldpuck even with the Orin Nano, with super low clocks and only 4 cpu cores and 1024 GPU cores, it still draws more power than Erista Tegra X1. In order for 8nm to work, the SOC configuration would need to be something like 768 GPU cores and 4-6 CPU cores. Honestly, if they had been launching in 2022, that would have been a respectable setup.
Sure, but I refer you back to what I wrote to Kise Ryota - if you're showing 8nm Orin to be only mildly more efficient than 20nm X1, then there is probably something else missing. Namely, the base TDP of the chip. Even with hardware blocks turned off via laser (like what happens with binning and floor sweeping), Orin Nano is still the same physical chip as Orin AGX. And you have to push electricity through the whole chip. That dead weight is still electrically inefficient.

And because you can't disable CPUs entirely, or disable the memory clock, we can't isolate "Orin tax" from "Legitimate memory clock". Much less figure out good numbers for the difference between "Orin tax" and "Drake tax."

There is a big gulf between "Orin running at a Drake config" which is paying max overhead, and "The Thraktor Minimum" which is the CPU+GPU extracted numbers, and zero overhead. Drake's actual draw will be somewhere between those. I am with you, Orin's numbers make it look impossible, and I find it hard to believe that there is that much fat on Orin. That's why I lean 4N.

But we don't know exactly where it leans, and there has to be some fat on Orin, otherwise, no cellphone would ever have been made with 8nm. So I'm with Kise here, I don't think 8nm is totally ruled out. If you pressed me, I'd bet against it, I just won't be shocked if I'm wrong.
 
Something on my mind since the Ounce's storage spec leaked: considering how insanely fast it is, do y'all think nintendo is gonna pivot to disc/cart installs like Sony and MS? I'm not up to date on cart tech or what Nintendo may be using for Ounce, but it seems impossible for cart-based storage to keep up
Most games just don't need insane speeds, so unless there's literally no improvement over Switch 1 game cards it probably won't be a problem for most games. Seems like the microSD Express cards we hope it will support will have read speeds something like 7x the max read speed of microSD cards on Switch 1? I'd be surprised if the read-only media was significantly worse.
 
I try to switch between various power modes and attempt to calculate power consumption by toggling the GPU. Then I found that the power consumption for every two TPCs (512 CUDA) I calculated under the Max-Q power mode varies, which seems to be inconsistent.
 
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I try to switch between various power modes and attempt to calculate power consumption by toggling the GPU. Then I found that the power consumption for every two TPCs (512 CUDA) I calculated under the Max-Q power mode varies, which seems to be inconsistent.
Not sure what you mean here? Can you give examples of settings that are inconsistent?
 
It's 100% on purpose, it's an Android handheld intended for retro game emulation of PS2 and GameCube (and Switch... but shh). The Vita d-pad design is apparently beloved, I've never tried it.
The Vita D-pad felt good, I will admit. I have no clue why the PS5 stuck with having the middle of the D-Pad covered instead of the styling of the Vita.

My favourite right now I think goes to the Joy-Con, shame upon me and all that. I think my tastes in D-Pad have radically shifted, really. It makes me wonder what exactly we'll see. Honestly, at present, I expect split buttons on the new Joy-Con and an old fashioned Nintendo pad on the Pro Controller, much like we have now. Personally what I'd like to see is four buttons across all controller options, with a chamfered side facing the middle of the diamond. A compromise that gets us most of the way to all usecases in all modes. And maybe, finally, a design that's both good for Tetris AND fighting games...
 
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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