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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Could be yeah, I think his reasoning is they don't want it to interfere with the fiscal year.
That said, Switch launched 4 months after it's reveal, so an April 2024 could translate to say an ... August 2024 launch. Depends on software and manufacturing issues I guess.
That said "November is when Nintendo always launches" isn't really true, it never was even a thing until the GameCube and most Nintendo systems have actually launched in other months. GameCube even actually first launched in Japan in September of 2001. Super Famicom did launch in November 1990 in Japan, but the US launch was August '91.
Famicom (July 83 Japan, Oct 85)
Game Boy (April 89 Japan, July 89 USA)
Super Nintendo (August 91 USA)
Virtual Boy (Aug 95 USA)
N64 (June 96 Japan, Sept 96 USA)
Game Boy Advance (March 01 Japan, July 01 USA)
Nintendo 3DS (Feb 11 Japan, March 11 USA)
Nintendo Switch (March 17 ww)
For a long time August/September was generally Nintendo's launch period in the West for example, I actually think that's better because you can get multiple waves of buyers including the holiday rush and early adopters. If you launch in like late November you really only are going to have 1, maybe 2 shipments for the year max.
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Goodtwin
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CPU and memory bandwidth are areas where Switch 2 just isnt going to match the Xbox Series S. With 2024 starting to feel more likely than 2023, the idea of Drake being on a good node makes more sense. 5nm becomes a real possibility with cost starting to come down and this allows for some pretty good clock speeds. GPU performance could be within a stones throw of Series S, and that would honestly be a big win.
Prime 4 does seem well positioned to be the holiday game this year. Metroid does have a rather low ceiling for sales, 3-4 million is pretty much the best its going to do. With Switch having sold over 120 million units, giving Prime 4 the spotlight this holiday season gives it the best chance of selling well. Prime Remastered has shown that the technology is sound and we can expect an attractive game, even on OG Switch.
John Omaha
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Perceived market fit, business relationships and a worse online infrastructure are usually more of a factor than power when deciding to port a game to Switch.
Gerald
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I expected 2GHZ of ARM A78C, so CPU dont will be problem
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
"It is preparing to be sunset, the sunset isn't immediate. This isn't even at the horizon of the sunset yet. The end is near for it. It's not in darkness yet not even at twilight face we still have a beautiful hue in the sky from the Switch. But we know what's just beyond." - NateDrake at the Nate the Hate podcast February 13th 2023.
Absolute poetry 10/10.
Absolute poetry 10/10.
Hahahahahahahahaha!
The Switch 2 is gonna launch with 1-2 Switch, then it won't see a significant title for 4 years.
OP
OP
I think 2 GHz for the CPU is the absolute best case scenario, although not guaranteed.
Launching late 24 makes sense given their latest declarations.
But next year is going to be very long for Switch...
But next year is going to be very long for Switch...
D
Deleted member 887
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Recent comments about multithreaded performance in the DF direct made me think of this. The complexities of multithreaded performance are hard for non-coders to understand. It's not only hard to extract the maximum theoretical performance out of a multithreaded system, but they are notoriously crash prone and insecure as well.
Technologies like Rust are starting to change that, but they require big overhauls of code to use, and are just now starting to trickle into video games. It'll be a while before reliably decent multithreading comes to games, which is why single core perf remains so important.
Of course the reason that multithreading perf is getting pushed at all is because we're hitting areas where pushing single core perf any further isn't possible on the scales that it once was. As huge as the jump for single core perf was with Zen 2, I'm dubious we'll be able to see a similar jump in the 10th gen consoles.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
It's also not new information, I think this is the third time Nate's timeframe estimates have been brought up in this thread and he's already clarified it as speculation. In the past month I've heard nothing to reconcile the NVN2 / T239 timeline that would make me think anything later than H1 2024.
Obviously if H1 2024 rolls around and it's not here, then my prediction is incorrect. But it doesn't mean it was a bad prediction.
Yes, multi-threaded code is hard to write and very error-prone, but a good event-driven architecture may prevent the need for multi-threaded tasks.
Recent comments about multithreaded performance in the DF direct made me think of this. The complexities of multithreaded performance are hard for non-coders to understand. It's not only hard to extract the maximum theoretical performance out of a multithreaded system, but they are notoriously crash prone and insecure as well.
Technologies like Rust are starting to change that, but they require big overhauls of code to use, and are just now starting to trickle into video games. It'll be a while before reliably decent multithreading comes to games, which is why single core perf remains so important.
Of course the reason that multithreading perf is getting pushed at all is because we're hitting areas where pushing single core perf any further isn't possible on the scales that it once was. As huge as the jump for single core perf was with Zen 2, I'm dubious we'll be able to see a similar jump in the 10th gen consoles.
One task may be calculating collisions, another advancing animations, another calculating what AIs should do next, another pushing sound data, another gathering whatever data RT needs, etc. They could all be running concurrently without touching each other's data, sharing data in a read-only manner or producing change-sets to be safely incorporated later.
We may be further away from the max theoretical performance, but code becomes a lot more manageable and easy to instrument. Not sure about the gaming industry, but I've been seeing quite a shift to manageable single-threaded tasks in programming as a whole, while multi-threading is reserved for operations on private data.
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Truno
Koopa
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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not 
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I've yet to see factual information or even leaks that suggest anything later than 2023, only speculation and more speculation.
But based on the facts, 2023 seems likely, and based on the factory and dev leaks, 2023 seems likely.
KeijiKG
Moblin
It's the Prime 4 bit I'm laughing at.
Only because I think Retro is planning to release the rest of the original trilogy remastered and re-res'd for Switch first to let things set in before dropping the bomb that is Prime 4.
Not the kind of speculation I should be doing this topic, but releasing each previously installment for different halves of the year sounds like a hurried but practical pace, depending on how well received the sales of the first are but I can't speak for Retro or what the actual plan may be.
Hairway to Steven
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But that game was on Switch. Ed Boon personally pushed for it because he's a huge Nintendo fan.
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Dude what is up with the super low pixel count on that gif? Was it rendered on a TX1 Switch or something?
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Around 55:08 they talk about the timing of the next Switch. Rich seems to suggest that they maybe want to talk about the leaks in a future video. They don’t really seem to double down that an announcement is in 2024. Otherwise they seem as clueless like everyone. It‘s funny though how Alex says like about every game they discuss from the Direct, that he wonders how it would look on a Switch 2.
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Cucufate
Partner Showcases can be cool, you know
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Yeah, that's their point, I think. Ed Boon had to push hard for a Switch version of MK11 because apparently the higher ups at WB were convinced that a Mortal Kombat game on a Nintendo system wasn't a good fit.
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I've been seeing that a lot lately, and I can't understand this reasoning. Why would they drop the whole trilogy before Prime 4? It would completely saturate the console with those types of games and make people way less excited and interested in 4. It's the same reasoning people kept using to say WW/TP were releasing "any day now" over the past 2-3 years. It's the expectation that Nintendo just wants these games out rather than putting then in strategic spots that both maximize demand for the game itself and minimize impact on similar games, it makes no sense.
Prime 4 is 100% releasing before 2 or 3 does, you can bookmark this.
Goodtwin
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That would be great, but I'm not confident that will happen. When playing portably the SOC will need to operate on on 5 watts and CPU cores start to get power hungry as we approach those clock speeds. They will keep CPU clocks consistent from portable to docked play. I would be happy to see anything around 1.5Ghz, but am concerned we could see a repeat with Switch and the CPU clocks will be just north of 1Ghz.
During DF's weekly podcast Tom did say they would be talking about the T239 in the future episode and that he thinks this will be the processor for the next Switch. Nate during his podcast had said he was hearing the Switch Pro hardware was going to have PS4 Pro levels of performance. Nvidia really doesn't have anything that fits the bill for that level of performance. It basically has to be Drake.
Did Nintendo's plan for a more powerful Switch change from a Pro to a successor for marketing reasons? Did Drake start development at the same time Orin did, but saw significant delays because of Covid? I still cant get over the fact that the Switch OLED dock has the output processor in there to deliver 4K output but standard Switch dock does not. Was the original plan for Drake to be ready for a 2021 launch but because of the longer than expected R&D cycle, coupled with insanely inflated semiconductor prices, was pushed down the road to the point Nintendo decided it needed to wait for a new console generation to provide more powerful hardware. If the Switch Pro was targeting PS4 Pro levels of performance, this was not a two year product, but a product that would be intended to extend the Switch's life 4-5 years. I now think Drake was intended for a Pro model, but due to timing and pricing issues, was delayed for various reasons and they regrouped for a brand new console generation.
Hairway to Steven
Bob-omb
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Sales proved them wrong, thankfully.
Below PS4. It's matching ps4 when you reduce the resolution
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
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Have we had new concrete information from a reliable factory worker?
Cucufate
Partner Showcases can be cool, you know
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Certainly, but the whole thing proves how certain preconceptions can prevent some games from being ported; not every franchise has an Ed Boon that is willing (or able) to champion a Switch version because he knows better than the people calling the shots.
Goodtwin
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It has a more modern APU and seems to handle cross gen PS4/PS5 games really well as long as resolution is kept around that 800p mark. The memory performance of the PS4 has always been a strength, and it shows up when comparing PS4 to Deck at higher resolutions. Overall CPU and GPU compute performance surpass PS4 but memory bandwidth limitations for Deck keep it shackled down to lower resolutions.
I agree with you but as a long time Prime Trilogy fan I want you to be wrong. Everything you said was absolutely correct other than being what I want to hear.
Mildudon
Rattata
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Because 1,2 and 3 comes before 4 and playing games out of order ruinens the fun i think. I will say that I have not played MP 1-3 and don’t know how tightly they fit together storywise. For me it Wild be like playing Mass Effect 3 before 1 and 2.
Gerald
Bob-omb
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I think battery will be def bigger than in Switch 1, so its possible, and i think if Switch 2 will be relased in 2024, it will be for sure on TSMC 4N
D36
#ITSXENOVER
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I just found out you can bookmark posts
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None of the games are that dependent on any other for story. You can absolutely play them out of order.
There is an overarching plot of course but it's relegated to the background mostly, so you won't really know you've missed anything unless you're meticulously scanning logs. They've also said MP1-3 are a complete trilogy, and MP4 will more or less be a new story separate from the others.
SpaceGodzilla
Did You Get that Thing I Sent You?
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nah screw bookmarking. What are you willing to bet?
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.
While I’m not confident about it releasing before 2 + 3, I agree that it wouldn’t be a problem.
If Nintendo expects players to have played 1-3 to appreciate 4 then they’ve fucked up. Bad. I should feel comfortable post release wholeheartedly recommending 4 as a starting point to friends and the remainder of they’re eager for more.
While I’m not confident about it releasing before 2 + 3, I agree that it wouldn’t be a problem.
If Nintendo expects players to have played 1-3 to appreciate 4 then they’ve fucked up. Bad. I should feel comfortable post release wholeheartedly recommending 4 as a starting point to friends and the remainder of they’re eager for more.
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500 famicoins.
Hairway to Steven
Bob-omb
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So, we're all expecting Switch 2's (Japanese) 3rd party situation to be the same as it was on Switch?
Not that I mind it too much. Switch has had great Japanese support, but also more than a few painful glaring omissions (although I guess the same can be said in reverse too, since Nintendo's exclusives aren't on other platforms).
Not that I mind it too much. Switch has had great Japanese support, but also more than a few painful glaring omissions (although I guess the same can be said in reverse too, since Nintendo's exclusives aren't on other platforms).
SpaceGodzilla
Did You Get that Thing I Sent You?
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I'll throw in a new avatar of your choosing if your right
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Sounds good to me.
Thugstas
Bob-omb
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
If your event driven architecture doesn't actually execute events on different threads, then you're still bound by single core performance. If you want to take advantage of multicore perf, you have to have threads. There is no way around it.
Single threaded, event driven systems are incredible for squeezing all the performance out of single core, especially in latency sensitive environments, where the cost of thread creation can dominate event time. Increasing single thread performance is always to the good, and it's easy to program for - any Comp Sci 201 student can make a state machine - but the reality of silicon means that single threaded performance increases aren't coming at the rate they once did, and that's why multicore systems are standard.
This. People who think that dropping the whole series on Switch would increase the appeal of Prime 4 are deluding themselves. There is a very limited number of people who would buy 4, but only if they can play 1-3, and who wouldn't be burnt out on the series before 4 arrived.
Had Remastered dropped a year ago, had a Dread style build up, and crushed it - maybe then there would be room for Echoes & Corruption in the lead up to a 2024 release of 4. But even then I doubt it.
John Omaha
Moblin
It should improve unless something goes horribly wrong, mainly because of the system's power and the strength of the Switch brand. Don't expect a major shift in the priorities of Japanese developers that aren't already mostly or fully on board, though.
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I don't believe Prime 2 and 3 are coming soon because I'm deluded; I believe it because I've unreasonably concluded that something I'd like to happen is definitely going to happen just because of the power of Hope
Oh
I see.
I do think Prime 4 now has a great shot at being late 2023 though
Oh
I see.
I do think Prime 4 now has a great shot at being late 2023 though
Sol
Moblin
I don't think that will be happening. I mean, it makes sense, but that's apparently not how things worked out.
Here's a resetera post from September 2021 from someone who clearly knew what was going on: https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...ders-corroborate.490360/page-11#post-73958365
Basically, after Tropical Freeze, Retro Studios started working on a new title. But it was cancelled and everything was thrown out. Nintendo then tasked Retro Studios with remaking the entire Metroid Prime trilogy for Nintendo Switch.
However, this largely involved the art team, but not so much other parts of Retro, like the designers. Nintendo noticed that Namco was struggling to put together a Prime game that would hold up compared to the previous games, so Nintendo had parts of Retro Studios assist Namco with Prime 4.
After a while, Nintendo saw the amazing progress Retro was doing with the remake, as well as the level design for Prime 4. At that point, they asked themselves why they didn't just have Retro do Prime 4 to begin with. That's when we got the January 2019 video from Nintendo that full development of the title was moving to Retro Studios.
This person stated that the plan became for Retro to finish up MP Remastered (which they did in September 2021), and then have other studios work on remastering MP 2 and 3. But they weren't confident on that plan with respect to MP2 and 3.
Jeff Grubb and Nate have both said they have heard that the MP2 and 3 remasters will be more like typical remasters, ie, standard HD upscales without all the extra work that went into MP Remasterd. Again, that's what they both heard about a year ago, and are unsure if things have changed.
So....MP 2 and 3 are most likely coming at some point and in some form. But, there's a good chance it's not done by Retro, and a good chance they're not done at the same quality as the MP Remaster. Everything we know is that the MP Remaster finished in September 2021, and the rest of Retro has been working on MP4 since late 2018/early 2019. I don't know that Nintendo would burden them with remakes of MP 2 and 3 when they're right in the middle of MP4 development.
Personally, I would not expect MP 2 and 3 before Metroid Prime 4. Retro Studios has been at this since late 2018/early 2019. We're at 4 years right now. 4.5 years by fall 2023. It's time. Nate and MVG said the reason Nintendo held onto Prime Remastered for almost 18 months was because they wanted to release it near the MP4 release date to get people reacquainted with the franchise before MP4 hits. And that certainly makes sense.
My hope is that MP Remastered sells so well that it impels Nintendo to remake the other two games at the same level of quality, and will task Retro Studios to work on those after they ship Metroid Prime 4.
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Goodtwin
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Pretty much the same. A lot of the AAA current gen games will skip the Switch 2. The console performance will be low enough that ports to Switch 2 will take some real effort, and many of these franchises just don't sell on Nintendo consoles the way they do on other consoles. Plenty of PS4 ports will come over because the hardware performance will make it low handing fruit.
No way does Nintendo hold onto Prime Remastered for almost a year and a half and not have Prime 4 on the horizon. Prime Remastered is the catalyst to building momentum for Prime 4. A November release for Prime 4 makes a lot of sense.
This is extremely likely. Release them as digital only for $20 each and stealth drop them during the September Direct. Gives the hardcore Prime fans the ability to play the entire series on Switch without risking burning out the more general public on the Prime series before Prime 4 releases.
AlwaysOnDeck
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