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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Concernt said:
64GB game cards are already possible on Switch, and thankfully Drake has a File Decompression Engine that should be able to decompress game data on the fly so install sizes should hopefully stay low. Fingers crossed.
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64g game cards are extremely expensive. A better option is to have a 16gb or 32gb card and have mandatory installation. Once game is extracted from the smaller 16gb card based on the compression technology a much larger game file can be then extracted. But for this to be feasible Nintendo needs to include 500GB internal space on a Switch 2 otherwise people would need to keep deleting and installing games often.
 
kalosmani said:
64g game cards are extremely expensive. A better option is to have a 16gb or 32gb card and have mandatory installation. Once game is extracted from the smaller 16gb card based on the compression technology a much larger game file can be then extracted. But for this to be feasible Nintendo needs to include 500GB internal space on a Switch 2 otherwise people would need to keep deleting and installing games often.
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We've had 32GB cards since launch and prices have only been coming down. Plus like other consoles, physical games for the next Switch could well be 70+$. They're already 69.99€ for some Switch titles in Europe, and the Euro is worth more than the dollar.

Furthermore, on the fly compression means it wouldn't need to be installed at all, if they use that route.

It's not something I would be concerned about in the slightest.

It's definitely not a "better option", though, due to the storage limitations of a portable, and the fact it removes the plug and play appeal of Switch. One advantage it still has as a home console is ease of use, including instant play for physical media.
 
Eclissi said:
You Lie knowing you are lying 😛
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???

Are you serious? Nobody relies on Nate for information, nobody takes his word as gospel. His rumors are treated just like any other unconfirmed rumor.

If you don't understand that then I think you might but understand what the purpose of this thread is.
Concernt said:
It's a tablet with a kickstand and Joy-Con rails. It cannot possibly change its form factor, but if I'm wrong on that I'll at least be excited to try a new Nintendo formfactor for the first time in over a decade.
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It can get bigger, change where the controls are, add a screen, add a touch pad, add cameras, who knows. We know very little about what this device physically will look like.

We can make good educated guesses but the current hard information and rumors out there tell us very little.
 
kalosmani said:
64g game cards are extremely expensive. A better option is to have a 16gb or 32gb card and have mandatory installation. Once game is extracted from the smaller 16gb card based on the compression technology a much larger game file can be then extracted. But for this to be feasible Nintendo needs to include 500GB internal space on a Switch 2 otherwise people would need to keep deleting and installing games often.
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adding half a terabyte of storage isn't even a difficult thing

getting devs to use a 16GB card when the game will have to be split with a digital install is impossible. they don't even do this on Xbox or Playstation. they'll just use the smallest card available and tell users to download the whole thing
 
Skittzo said:
???

Are you serious? Nobody relies on Nate for information, nobody takes his word as gospel. His rumors are treated just like any other unconfirmed rumor.

If you don't understand that then I think you might but understand what the purpose of this thread is.

It can get bigger, change where the controls are, add a screen, add a touch pad, add cameras, who knows. We know very little about what this device physically will look like.

We can make good educated guesses but the current hard information and rumors out there tell us very little.
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Depends on what you consider hard information. If we believe the factory uncle, the changes to the back shell are just different pattern of indentations, probably for the kickstand. It COULD be almost anything and everything, but the likelihood of it being anything other than a Switch, which the rumours are pretty strong about it still being, is low, and certain additions would mean it would cease to be a Switch. Could the controls, layout, shape change? Maybe. I doubt it. It seems unlikely. But it's technically possible.
 
Concernt said:
Depends on what you consider hard information. If we believe the factory uncle, the changes to the back shell are just different pattern of indentations, probably for the kickstand. It COULD be almost anything and everything, but the likelihood of it being anything other than a Switch, which the rumours are pretty strong about it still being, is low, and certain additions would mean it would cease to be a Switch. Could the controls, layout, shape change? Maybe. I doubt it. It seems unlikely. But it's technically possible.
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Funcle only talked about a new back piece he came across, AFAIK he didn't say the rest of the back shell parts were the same.

I agree with you that it's likely going to look similar but there's a different between educated speculation about it which is what that is, and inside information of which we have almost none.
 
Skittzo said:
Funcle only talked about a new back piece he came across, AFAIK he didn't say the rest of the back shell parts were the same.

I agree with you that it's likely going to look similar but there's a different between educated speculation about it which is what that is, and inside information of which we have almost none.
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Is there? 😏

Maybe it's a me thing, but I treat "inside information" as much rumour as anything else, even if I might trust it more or less. The only thing we have with reeal veracity is the leak from Nvidia. Everything else is hearsay, until proven correct.

Though in terms of rumours, I'd say the back plate apparently being so similar, especially size and shape wise, with only minor changes to indents and cutouts, would strongly imply a near identical formfactor, same as the rumours that say "it's a Switch, there are people making games for a 4K Switch", which while not solid as rock, strongly implies it's... Still a Switch, with a dock, Joy-Con, TV Mode, Tabletop Mode, and Handheld Mode. Which really limits how many changes can be made to it.
 
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The cost of Switch cartridges has to have gotten pretty low by now. The retail cost of a 64GB SD card is down to around $10, so maybe $2 to actually manufacture? Or is the memory used in Switch cartridges actually more costly than the read/write memory in a SD card? Publishers will continue to skimp regardless. If they can save $2 per cartridge and make the consumer download half the game to their internal memory they will. I suspect Nintendo will up the internal memory to 128GB. Its an area Nintendo has historically skimped on and will put the burden on consumers to get high capacity micro SD cards.
 
ILikeFeet said:
adding half a terabyte of storage isn't even a difficult thing

getting devs to use a 16GB card when the game will have to be split with a digital install is impossible. they don't even do this on Xbox or Playstation. they'll just use the smallest card available and tell users to download the whole thing
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I didn't say split into multiple cartridges with all need installing I meant a 16gb holding a compressed games which when installed can be double to triple.tje size due to compression technology. Think 7zip on windows and extracting a larger file.

Even 64gb may not be sufficient, how big is a game like Elden Ring or Call of Duty?
 
Dekuman said:
Last I saw he said he needed to find time to record. I assume its still a couple of weeks away. But I haven't been following the podcast situation closely
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Why not just release information in this threat or a tweet no need to record a podcast. In fact I find it easier to follow information that's in writing.
 
kalosmani said:
I didn't say split into multiple cartridges with all need installing I meant a 16gb holding a compressed games which when installed can be double to triple.tje size due to compression technology. Think 7zip on windows and extracting a larger file.

Even 64gb may not be sufficient, how big is a game like Elden Ring or Call of Duty?
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that implies games can compress in such a manner. that's a case by case basis

Goodtwin said:
The cost of Switch cartridges has to have gotten pretty low by now. The retail cost of a 64GB SD card is down to around $10, so maybe $2 to actually manufacture? Or is the memory used in Switch cartridges actually more costly than the read/write memory in a SD card? Publishers will continue to skimp regardless. If they can save $2 per cartridge and make the consumer download half the game to their internal memory they will. I suspect Nintendo will up the internal memory to 128GB. Its an area Nintendo has historically skimped on and will put the burden on consumers to get high capacity micro SD cards.
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switch carts uses a different and more expensive tech than SD cards
 
ILikeFeet said:
that implies games can compress in such a manner. that's a case by case basis


switch carts uses a different and more expensive tech than SD cards
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Surely games can be compressed. The type of file shouldn't matter, when I download something on my PC with 7zip it can contain any file format. I'm not talking about on the fly compression while playing a game just an initial installation of a game into the internal drive of the Switch succsessor.

E.g Switch 2 comes with a 512gb internal drive. Games come in 16-32gb cartridges which contain a compressed game after installed game size can be 32-64gb when installed on the 512gb internal drive. Cartridges would still need to be inserted when playing a game for verification. This is similar how it works on PS5 and Xbox Series consoles with mandatory installation.
 
ILikeFeet said:
that implies games can compress in such a manner. that's a case by case basis


switch carts uses a different and more expensive tech than SD cards
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Wait, are Game Cards really more expensive than SD cards? Weren't they designed to be super cheap to produce so that they can function as a mass produced entertainment distribution media? What makes them more expensive?
 
kalosmani said:
Surely games can be compressed. The type of file shouldn't matter, when I download something on my PC with 7zip it can contain any file format. I'm not talking about on the fly compression while playing a game just an initial installation of a game into the internal drive of the Switch succsessor.

E.g Switch 2 comes with a 512gb internal drive. Games come in 16-32gb cartridges which contain a compressed game after installed game size can be 32-64gb when installed on the 512gb internal drive. Cartridges would still need to be inserted when playing a game for verification. This is similar how it works on PS5 and Xbox Series consoles with mandatory installation.
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But why would you want that?
 
Concernt said:
But why would you want that?
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If you look at my previous post I mentioned the 4 options.

Read the negatives of option 1 to 3

Edit I'll repeat

Developers can't even be bothered to release 32gb cart games due to expense, why would they release 64gb carts. Elden Ring is nearly 50gb for example. If we go Switch 1 route of developers forcing you to download game data then practically every game would do that which would be not great for countries with bad internet or limited data caps.
 
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Concernt said:
Assembly of Nintendo consoles.
Switch sales are slowly trending down with January an especially slow period for assembly. Yet a factory worker has claimed the factory has gone into overdrive (to paraphrase them). If they're being honest (we have reason to believe they are reliable due to previous OLED special editions they leaked), that would strongly imply the new device is in final assembly.
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So ramping up in this case would mean getting the factory lines ready for a new product? I mean, ramping up could also mean getting ready to produce even more of the product they are already making. I wish he would have said “preparing” or even “getting ready”.
 
AxkilAvenger said:
So ramping up in this case would mean getting the factory lines ready for a new product? I mean, ramping up could also mean getting ready to produce even more of the product they are already making. I wish he would have said “preparing” or even “getting ready”.
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Would be weird if they were ramping up production on a demand-limited console that is on a sales decline.
 
You know, speaking of cartridges...is there any chance we see a digital-only version of Drake? Similar to PS5.

Would removing the cartridge slot even justifty cutting down the price? :unsure:
 
I do agree with the maxim of just not paying the rumors any mind if they bother you, but it's not like you can entirely ignore posts that are so integrated in the zeitgeist

many posts have "nate said this" or similar, and he's a big part of the thread. ire may be unwarranted, but I totally understand @Eclissi's frustration
 
ArchedThunder said:
People shouldn’t worry about game card storage size. Capacity per dollar improves every gen, Switch 2 32 gb cards for example should be cheaper.
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The 360 to Xbox One storage capacity jump was quite huge. So if Switch 2 flows the same graphics jump how can Switch keep up and not have storage limit the games. We are nearly at the end of the generation and many developers are still too cheap to even use 32gb. The Xbox One generation has games going up to 100gb. GTAV is 94gb, Cyberpunk is 86gb, Red Dead 2 is 110gb, Destiny 2 is 82gb. Then there are so many games in the 40-60gb range. Let's say developers no longer cheap to use 32gb, they would still be cheap to use 64gb as 32gb is still not enough for many games from the Xbox One generation.
 
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Raccoon said:
I do agree with the maxim of just not paying the rumors any mind if they bother you, but it's not like you can entirely ignore posts that are so integrated in the zeitgeist

many posts have "nate said this" or similar, and he's a big part of the thread. ire may be unwarranted, but I totally understand @Eclissi's frustration
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Why can't he be like a normal leaker and post of twitter or in this thread instead of wat h my next podcast to find out more lol
 
AxkilAvenger said:
So ramping up in this case would mean getting the factory lines ready for a new product? I mean, ramping up could also mean getting ready to produce even more of the product they are already making. I wish he would have said “preparing” or even “getting ready”.
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Probably, but we can't be certain. 😅
 
ILikeFeet said:
that implies games can compress in such a manner. that's a case by case basis


switch carts uses a different and more expensive tech than SD cards
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ROM cards are non volatile memory (NVM), from what I am finding they are cheaper than volatile memory like a SD card.

www.geeksforgeeks.org

Difference between Volatile Memory and Non-Volatile Memory - GeeksforGeeks

A Computer Science portal for geeks. It contains well written, well thought and well explained computer science and programming articles, quizzes and practice/competitive programming/company interview Questions.
www.geeksforgeeks.org www.geeksforgeeks.org
 
These last few pages is why I'm in favor of the anonymous leaker account suggestion.

Leaks are now more about the insider personalities than they are about the info.
 
kalosmani said:
Why can't he be like a normal leaker and post of twitter or in this thread instead of wat h my next podcast to find out more lol
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nate both doesn't seem to like repeating himself and unfortunately seems to convey his meaning better in conversation (as do I!)
 
yohoopzcrazy said:
You know, speaking of cartridges...is there any chance we see a digital-only version of Drake? Similar to PS5.

Would removing the cartridge slot even justifty cutting down the price? :unsure:
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Unlike a disk drive, a game card slot doesn't cost much to produce, and being a portable already influences people towards digital. It's a PCB and some shielding which is mostly passive with no moving parts except for the latch, which is just a flexible piece of metal. It costs pennies to produce and doesn't take up a hogload of internal space. It's the smallest game card slot Nintendo's ever had, actually!
 
Polygon said:
At this point I’d actually chuckle if Nate just said “fuck y’all” and never recorded the podcast in question or talked about a new Switch again. Jesus fuck some people are ungrateful little worms. If you don’t believe him… ignore him. Same goes for me.
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finally went mask off LOL HOLY SHIT
 
Polygon said:
At this point I’d actually chuckle if Nate just said “fuck y’all” and never recorded the podcast in question or talked about a new Switch again. Jesus fuck some people are ungrateful little worms. If you don’t believe him… ignore him. Same goes for me.
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RegalPlaintiveLangur-max-1mb.gif
 
Is there a post of what Nate got right and what Nate got wrong. And the ones he got right if they were mentioned of the back of another leak. I remember Era had a nice collared post of all leakers and there right and wrongs so people can go back to a source and then decide if they are legit or not
 
Raccoon said:
I will say that the podcast sort of feels like papa john's day of reckoning lol
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A dry fart? I think that's being a bit harsh to Nate. That said, I personally won't be putting much weight in it. Everything's a rumour until proven correct.
 
Zemya said:
So we are considering both a Switch refresh and a successor or just the successor? Stuff is a bit confusing
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A refresh at this point would be silly. Most likely a successor. But nowadays a successor is also a Pro console due to cross gen games and improved performances (via patches or brute force for ironing out frame rates and variable resolution). Similar to PS5 we have cross gen games to this day on that system.

I also think Switch 1 will be supported throughout the entire Switch 2 console generation. If they share similar architecture then developing for Switch 1 shouldn't cost much. Nintendo tend to make a ton of games that don't require much power. No reason why a 2D Mario that releases in 2027 can't still come out on Switch 1. Same with a the boatload of 2D indie games.
 
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Since people are clearly still confused, and since we've had something like 4,000 posts in a relatively short period of time, I wanted to try to summarize the info:

1. Information obtained from the Nvidia hack, Git commits to the linux4tegra source code, rumored leaks from factory workers (the Uncles), and a lack of Nvidia announcements at CES, combined with knowledge of semiconductor industry processes and timelines, have led many knowledgable members of these forums to conclude that a device using the T239 SoC--codenamed Drake--is due to release in 2023. Nate's sources corroborated a device matching the features of Drake launching in early 2023.

2. Digital Foundry, in response to a viewer question, made an off-hand comment about a Switch revision that was cancelled. They then guessed that a device using T239/Drake would come in 2024. Users here speculated that the cancelled revision was referring to a Mariko SoC-based device from years ago.

3. Nate stated that the cancelled device to which DF was referring is in fact the 2023 device using Drake. After a lot of confusing statements, he seemed to eventually arrive at the implication that the Drake SoC is being repurposed for a "next-gen" Nintendo device that will launch at a later date than the cancelled device, the development of which is at a point where "early concepts will evolve and change." These statements, along with referring to this news as "heavy", to me implies the delay is significant, but that's just my interpretation. He is planning on providing more information in an episode of his podcast which will occur at a TBD date.

4. A TotK-themed Switch OLED model was leaked, lending credence to the notion that, while perhaps not cancelled or repurposed, a device using Drake will probably not launch in the first half of 2023.


Given this, I think we're looking at 3 possible outcomes:

1. Drake is still coming in H1 2023.
2. Drake was delayed to late 2023/early 2024.
3. The original plans for Drake were blown up at the last minute, and Nintendo is making radical changes which will push it back to late 2024+ (perhaps a new gimmick/peripheral, along with a rebranding?)
 
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