Yea I mean Aula. The pandemic could have been what made it the plan A.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I might get some flak for this but I still don't see exactly what the difference is between a "mid-gen refresh" and a "switch 2" both using Drake is, beyond marketing. Part of the reason why I feel like Nate really has some wires crossed, since he himself had said a number of times that Nintendo will call it whatever they want to.
Absolutely agree.
eye0h
"it is known"
- Pronouns
- He/Him
If nintendo did reposition it they probably had to add their usual gimmicks, maybe a modified chipset that allows them to get more out of drake, kinda future proofing. The difference between a switch pro and a 2 is that the switch 2 is supposed to last them another 5-6 years whereas a pro would maybe last 2. At least in my opinion, not the biggest tech head.
modifying drake isn't something that happens on the fly. any modification would have been done years ago when they were doing simulations
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I'm going to jump on this train too, I think it's even possible that devs don't know how the device is going to be positioned, hence a lot of the confusion, it would make sense as dev teams only need to know target hardware to develop a game for it, they don't need to know if its mid gen or next gen.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
GBC added a brand new type of screen. DSi added internet connectivity. New 3DS added eye tracking and a new controller input.
I don't think there's a major difference between those "gimmicks" and the ones that go into their main consoles besides the amount of marketing and focus they place on them.
eye0h
"it is known"
- Pronouns
- He/Him
fair point
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Several thousand people would have to be in the know if the Switch 2 was really releasing in six months. The idea that none of them would accidentally talk to Bloomberg or the WSJ to leak this already is pretty silly.
Eclissi
Moblin
In my opinion, there could be confusion between an iterative successor and a real Switch 2.
But confusing a refresh, which has always been something that maintains a large part of the components, updating only something, with hardware that mounts a completely new Drake SoC compared to Tegra X1, would seem to me at least strange.
D
Deleted member 1324
Guest
Oh fuck my head hurts.
Happy New Year to you all.
1.
All the past weeks info has taught us is that Drake is no longer being positioned as part of the current Switch family of systems and is now going to be positioned as a true next generation Nintendo product (I’m actually pleased to hear that because it will mean more games will be exclusive to it quicker and new games will not be held back by a 2015 mobile chip).
2.
A special collectors edition OLED doesn’t mean a new Switch can’t arrive on the same day (cardboard, stickers, OLED shells and Joycons aren’t the issue with manufacturing it’s the new main board that can be tricky to build in mass numbers in this new era).
3.
Drake is still planned for Q2 ‘23 as of December’22. Zelda 2 launch obviously.
I’ll post more info if I get any.
Sorry when I blew my top the other day I just thought the abuse Nate was getting from some was totally shitty. My post was out of order though so apologies <3 x
Happy New Year to you all.
1.
All the past weeks info has taught us is that Drake is no longer being positioned as part of the current Switch family of systems and is now going to be positioned as a true next generation Nintendo product (I’m actually pleased to hear that because it will mean more games will be exclusive to it quicker and new games will not be held back by a 2015 mobile chip).
2.
A special collectors edition OLED doesn’t mean a new Switch can’t arrive on the same day (cardboard, stickers, OLED shells and Joycons aren’t the issue with manufacturing it’s the new main board that can be tricky to build in mass numbers in this new era).
3.
Drake is still planned for Q2 ‘23 as of December’22. Zelda 2 launch obviously.
I’ll post more info if I get any.
Sorry when I blew my top the other day I just thought the abuse Nate was getting from some was totally shitty. My post was out of order though so apologies <3 x
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Nintendo is really leak-resistant, so I wouldn't be surprised if the info we have is outdated or misconstructed from what is actually happening.
CocaFormula
Cappy
He also said that developers were told this was a revision akin to N3DS or GBC so that's where he is coming from and I have to assume/hope he was not putting too much of his own speculation when discussing this kind of information.
I agree technically speaking the lines are much more blurred, although I can imagine if Nintendo ever decided to repurpose Drake as a proper next-gen a number of things could have changed aside from "marketing" (with timing being to most important one, but also including peripherals, exclusives, price, etc...)
TBH I've found the idea of a revision in 2023 quite bizarre already for some time, even from a marketing standpoint.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I'm just specifically talking about the idea that a full Switch successor will launch in the next six months, I'm extremely confident it will not as info would have leaked at this point with how many people at non-Nintendo companies would have to know.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
They would probably be under extreme NDA.
No more extreme than any other unannounced piece of hardware.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Outside developers would not really know anything about the device besides the chipset though.
He did? All he said on the subject that I remember was that it was still being referred to as a switch but that Nintendo will name it and market it whatever they wanted to, and that he wasn't privvy to that.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Happy New Year. Don't even think you were outta pocket tbh, as Nate doesn't owe us anything. As for your third point, that's where I'm still hanging my guess, because I don't see the Drake switch timeline having shifted much unless it actually was canned, but I find that scenario quite unlikely.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Those working on software wouldn't have to know how the hardware would be marketed. We have had leaks around a switch Pro since 2019, all devs need to know is what the target hardware is.
If Nintendo is trying to keep this under wraps the only people in third party dev companies who would know would be top brass and would be under extreme NDA. Exec level staff aren't going to leak anything.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
So third-party programmers who are being told to optimize a game for specific hardware that hasn't been officially announced but the game itself is launching in a few months aren't going to figure this out?
- Pronouns
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Yeah im with @ItWasMeantToBe19 on this one, developers would have Dev Kits for around 1.5 Years. We knew that PS5 Dev Kit Hardware (Not PC-based Hardware) were circulating in 1H 2019. Steamworld Dig dev also did a video when Switch announced that they were brief on Hardware at E3 2016.
- Pronouns
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To be fair we have heard a fair bit about developers having devkits. Since 2021 or even 2020 depending on who you believe.
I agree though that we'd probably be hearing more if it's supposed to come out within 6 months.
Mango
Eltit Motsuc
- Pronouns
- She, Her
I genuinely don't believe a whole new console generation is releasing in May. The turn around from announcement to release for the switch was insanely small, and for this we're talking about something even smaller. The first two weeks of Jan will be the most telling, anything after that and it's just purely unrealistic territory.
- Pronouns
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Let's be honest here it's only Nate and Polygone who well don't have much credibility around this stuff compared to a reputable gaming journalist and site.
Corim
Cappy
- Pronouns
- he/him
I'm going to wait until the end of February before I consider it unrealistic. Nintendo has clearly begun to favour announcing products just a few months before release and they've proven that they can keep projects largely under wraps until they're ready to announce them.
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- He him
So are you saying that the plan you heard is still for Drake to release alongside Tears of the Kingdom in May?
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I was more referring to Bloomberg and their 11 devs who have devkits as of last September.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Right, which no one else collaborated with. I genuinely believe Dev Kits of OLED might have an output 4K option for supersampling as Nvidia Shield has in Dev Mode where you can enable 4k even on a sub 4k screen. Also one of the Devs pubically called them out saying they don't have such hardware and Nintendo themself tweeted about misleading info being shared about new Hardware.
Report: Games In The Works For 4K Nintendo Console That Doesn't Officially Exist [Update]
Developers at Zynga and 10 other companies are apparently working on 4K versions of Switch games
kotaku.com
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
The scope of an entire new console and everything that requires is way too much. We'll start hearing about a new console 9 months before release or so.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Except they already did, a year and a bit ago, so.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I'm so glad to hear you're back. I hope nobody should treat you, or any user, like that again. We're happy to have you. And yes, I agree with your timeline. Even beyond what's been posted here, I have reason to believe Q2 is still on track.
I'm not saying I have my own sources. But I don't... Not talk to developers I know, if that makes sense. Used to plan developer conferences in my area.
If anyone is wondering where my unfounded dogmatic confidence comes from, there you go. Feel free to doubt me of course! We're all just strings of numbers in here.
That will be 9 months of poor Switch hardware sales, doubt it.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
No, we don't have substantial information about that happening.
We really are relying on 2 no-name posters and a report that Nintendo and rumour dev (Zynga) have publically declined.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Right, which no one else collaborated with. I genuinely believe Dev Kits of OLED might have an output 4K option for supersampling as Nvidia Shield has in Dev Mode where you can enable 4k even on a sub 4k screen. Also one of the Devs pubically called them out saying they don't have such hardware and Nintendo themself tweeted about misleading info being shared about new Hardware.
Report: Games In The Works For 4K Nintendo Console That Doesn't Officially Exist [Update]
Developers at Zynga and 10 other companies are apparently working on 4K versions of Switch games
I'm pretty sure ADEV kits are very well documented and have no option for 4k output. Bloomberg isn't going to have 11 different sources making things up or confusing the same thing. That is is extremely far fetched.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Yes, we do.
Also "no-name" posters? We're all anonymous on here, you know. It's a little presumptuous, perhaps rude, to call people "no-name" and suggest they're untrustworthy, or "unsubstantial". A critical eye is wise, insults are not.
Right, which no one else collaborated with. I genuinely believe Dev Kits of OLED might have an output 4K option for supersampling as Nvidia Shield has in Dev Mode where you can enable 4k even on a sub 4k screen. Also one of the Devs pubically called them out saying they don't have such hardware and Nintendo themself tweeted about misleading info being shared about new Hardware.
Report: Games In The Works For 4K Nintendo Console That Doesn't Officially Exist [Update]
Developers at Zynga and 10 other companies are apparently working on 4K versions of Switch games
the Shield AI Supersampling takes damn near the whole gpu to work and still comes in and higher than real-time frame rates. that's 100% not it
- Pronouns
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Im not saying Mochizuki is making things up just saying the info they have gotten was either misrepresented or misunderstood. Takashi Mochizuki is a great reporter but I genuinely believe that he heard OLED surrounding 4K Dock was probably just for testing, also DF noted back in 2021 that OLED model was determined without any performance upgrade in a switch FW update.
Im not trying to be rude but they are "no-name" compared to the likes of Jason Schreier, and Takashi Mochizuki who do this kind of sleuthing and reporting for a living for a reputable site.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
He reported this in September 2021 after ADEV kits were out and public, and did not have any 4k functionality. What you're claiming may have happened is factually not something that could've happened.
Unless you think Mochizuki lied (which you said you don't) it's nearly indisputable that devkits are out there.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
They would have the performance level of the hardware they were working on, they would know it has DLSS and RTX, number of CPU cores etc but this doesn't tell them how Nintendo is going to market the product, that would be speculation, much like what we are doing here.
- Pronouns
- She/They
I still think the TotK OLED does a decisive blow against H1 '23 Drake. My reasoning supposes:
- Nintendo is very nervous about this generational transition
- TotK is the best candidate for a generation launch title in H1
- The TotK OLED is real
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Right, we know the Switch OLED devkit has more memory. If something like 4K output were added to one of the existing devkits we would have learned about it by now. Amongst the 11 different sources, if it were just a debug option then I assume it would have been clarified at least once to either Mochizuki or Kharif.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
- Pronouns
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I took liberties of making a post that can be referred when people want to compare specs to other platforms and hypotheticals:
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
How are 1 and 3 irreconsilable?
How many special edition 3DS units came out between October 2016 and December 2017?
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That was based on the PlayStaton 4 Pro, there was a comment by Richard in one of the DF Directs that confirmed the Devkits prior were based on the PS4 Pro and the move to PS5 was much later than.
Quite frankly, even if we consider the possibility that hardware would be out say… 1.5-2 years out from its dev kit leak, we haven’t seen spec leaks from developers…. so with that in mind, due to the fact that we haven’t seen any specifications leaks of hardware yet, does that now mean that the next Nintendo switch model is actually slated for 2025/2026? At some point we have to be a bit more selective in how we interpret information because we can end up coming to the wrong conclusion based on precedents of companies that have no correlation to the other company’s hardware plans.
And I’m being serious, we haven’t seen any leaks from developers about clock frequencies or cache sizes or CPU or memory, or other aspects of the hardware, so does that mean that the hardware is still very far out, and people are expecting 2024 without anything actually giving them 2024? and it could actually be 2025 or 2026 for all we know?
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D
Deleted member 1324
Guest
Not specifically told TotK but Q2 is Zelda launch so it lines up with Q2.
I do wonder what game people think is huge enough to launch a next generation Switch if it’s not TotK?
TotK is May, the new 3d Mario is almost certainly October this year. I guess Mario Kart 9 in March 2024 then? because by that time we will have just had a new Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem and Pikmin the year prior. Luigi’s Mansion is an October franchise and probably not due until Oct ‘26 due to Covid hampering it’s first two years of production. Bayonetta 4 (if 3’s sales even justified it) is 4 years off. We’ve just had a Xenoblade game. We’ve just had a new Splatoon. Metroid is not a big enough franchise to even exist for years to Nintendo nevermind to launch a next generation console with Prime 4.
A new Warriors spin off game is not big enough neither is a new Yoshi / Kirby / DK platformer or any Mario Sports spin off title.
Pokemon has never traditionally been used to sell Nintendo hardware in terms of a home / hybrid device either. God knows what is happening with Smash whether they will even make another anytime soon with their director seemingly retiring and if they do will they think more DLC passes will be the way to go (like the MK8D DLC) because really what can they do with Smash at this point that hasn’t already been done in past titles or that’s in Ultimate.
So the only option left seems to be Mario Kart 9/10 (do we count the mobile game as a main line entry?). Yes the team has been quiet but they have also done / helped with Tour, the physical toy car game and been making all the DLC tracks. Is next Spring enough time to make a new impressive entry in series and do Nintendo even think Mario Kart is strong enough to launch a next generation system on its own without a 2017 like spate of big titles to come thundering in one after the other after the other. Mario Kart seems to be a more of a complimentary purchase for Nintendo consoles rather than the main reason to buy the console imo.
Their other option is this May. When they have perhaps their biggest, most ambitious, most expensive, most anticipated game ever created launching. It’s also a franchise that successfully launched Wii, new 3DS, Switch and Switch Lite. They also have a new Pikmin, 3D Mario and perhaps Prime 4 to follow it up and keep momentum into ‘24 when a possible new Mario Kart would arrive to keep interest in the new console up.
You really don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes or have contacts in the industry to work this out. All that has changed is it’s almost certainly going to be positioned as their “next generation” system instead of a Switch “Pro/4k”
If I hear that plans have changed once my mates go back to work I’ll let y’all know but it doesn’t seem like anything has changed the kits simply got stronger and stronger with more memory throughout ‘22.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Well, no. Nvidia, after all, is a developer, and from their leaks we have everything from CUs to intended frequencies at given power consumption, to the fact they have final silicon to hammer out software for it to commit to Linux. And better Nvidia than anyone else, given that they're both the developer of the hardware and a software developer for said hardware.
CocaFormula
Cappy
Well at some point in 2021 he was erring more on the revision side. The problem with Nate is that it is not very clear how much of what he reports is based on sources or mixed with his own speculation/interpretation.
See message below from the OP:
After that he changed his own wording to be less specific. With the latest messages he seemed to imply again that the shelved hardware was, after all, a "Pro" like revision.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That is not at all comparable because Nvidia’s only tasked with creating a product for their client who is paying for them to actually create the product, and it was information was acquired illegally. We wouldn’t even know that T239 was actually related to Nintendo, unless it was acquired through illegal means. There has been zero comment from a developer about this hardware, therefore should we now believe that 2025/2026 is the time of release? Simple.
if the answer is yes, that due to no recent developer comments or leaks about this, then there is no hardware anytime soon and people can’t cling to 2024 as a release timing basing it on that factoid.
If no, one cannot use precedence to determine how this hardware cycle will play out because it does not fall under the same situation as those previous hardware cycles.
That said, I don’t believe H1 2023 at all, so I have no horse in this race.
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