StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[ShadowFox08]

I took liberties of making a post that can be referred when people want to compare specs to other platforms and hypotheticals:

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Gets a tad bit confusing to me when they all have higher pixel and texture rates than Drake for last gen consoles, although Drake has more cores.

Yeah, I didn't see that bandwidth. It's insane.

Talking about BW, if Drake is for 2024, we should expect more BW than 102GB/s. What do you think?

I dunno There's a higher chance we could get lpddr5x, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee we would get 133 GB/s bandwidth. If they wanted, they could clock it down to 102 GB/s, if they wanted to reduce power draw.
Definitely not expecting 204 GB/a. I don't like how they write "theoretical" before it.

 

[Skittzo]

This is completely incorrect. We had a solid understanding of what the Switch actually was, from its hybrid nature to the detachable Joycons. Here is a July 30, 2016 report from Eurogamer that pretty much tells us what the Switch is. Approximately 8 months before launch. That article in hindsight absolutely nailed what the Switch is, including those mock up pictures.

Nintendo NX is a portable console with detachable controllers

Nintendo's upcoming NX will be a portable, handheld console with detachable controllers, a number of sources have confi…

www.eurogamer.net

And the Eurogamer article came out after people like Emily had leaked this information about the Switch.

We knew waaaaay more about NX 8 months before launch than this Drake console. We are hypothetically 6 months before launch with TotK and there’s no peep of the this new consoles form factor, controllers, screen size, etc. We are much more in the dark at this point in time about Drake.

This is why I don’t think a new console is launching with Zelda but I’m happy to be wrong.

8 months before switch launched was July 3rd, I'm pretty sure that poster chose that number specifically because right after that is when all this leaked, as you said.

And for a bit more devil's advocate, assuming the form factor is largely the same then we obviously wouldn't be getting many leaks about a new form factor.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Gets a tad bit confusing to me when they all have higher pixel and texture rates than Drake for last gen consoles, although Drake has more cores.

Using the highest clocks and Drake beats Xbox One and One S on both and PS4 only beats it on pixel rate.

 

[Dekuman]

This is completely incorrect. We had a solid understanding of what the Switch actually was, from its hybrid nature to the detachable Joycons. Here is a July 30, 2016 report from Eurogamer that pretty much tells us what the Switch is. Approximately 8 months before launch. That article in hindsight absolutely nailed what the Switch is, including those mock up pictures.

Nintendo NX is a portable console with detachable controllers

Nintendo's upcoming NX will be a portable, handheld console with detachable controllers, a number of sources have confi…

www.eurogamer.net

And the Eurogamer article came out after people like Emily had leaked this information about the Switch.

We knew waaaaay more about NX 8 months before launch than this Drake console. We are hypothetically 6 months before launch with TotK and there’s no peep of the this new consoles form factor, controllers, screen size, etc. We are much more in the dark at this point in time about Drake.

This is why I don’t think a new console is launching with Zelda but I’m happy to be wrong.

To be fair NX was a different situation where it was announced as existing in 2015 because Nintendo/Iwata wanted to make sure investors understood Nintendo is still making a new games console despite the DeNA partnership. I believe NX was announced at the same time.

Further by 2016, Wii U was practically dead and Nintendo's E3 was just BoTW and everyone knew NX was coming sooner rather than later.
Switch is in a very different position, still selling very well, and Nintendo obviously doesn't want to prematurely depress demand by talking about it 2 years out. That said, I do agree we've not heard enough, actually, we've heard next to nothing about this successor, if it is indeed coming so soon.

But Nintendo have announced products out of the blue before, with 1a few weeks to a month of rumors preceding. I'm thinking 3DS where we heard about Sharp 3D LED tech being considered shortly before Nntendo released a plain press statement saying it exists. I could see something similar with the Switch succssor. A big leak of info, then a confirmation soon after.

 

[Serif]

If the next console is a hybrid then it will probably look like the current Switch, there wouldn't be much to leak from devkits looks wise. We know the NX devkit looked like a thicker Switch tablet with ethernet and controller ports.

Wii U / 3DS -> NX was an entirely different form factor, I doubt this is.

 

[Kise Ryota]

Definitely not expecting 204 GB

I agree. But maybe that ~133GB/s... (unless it's using sec 8nm, then I think there will be no need for more BW...)

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

You’re not understanding what I’m getting at, and like I said that situation with nvidia was completely accidental that we came across it. Absolutely nothing like that will happen again.

They didn’t leak it, it was stolen information through illegal means. That is, 10000000% not at all comparable to a developer leaking specs on the internet with frequencies and memory and all that jazz.

There has been absolutely zero leaks from a developer, and henceforth since we haven’t had that, should we now assume that the new hardware isn’t out for another 2 to 3 years from this date, January 1, 2023? The whole premise of the arguments that I saw on the last page were that “because hardware developer kits were circulating for 1-2 years prior from launch for this system from this other company, and that thousands of people would have known prior to the systems launch especially 6 months out” and were using that to base it not releasing in 2023, however, what is giving people the idea that’s going to launch in 2024 by the extension?

Nothing is actually supporting 2023 and by extension for 2024, if we entertain the previous arguments that have been presented, then the only logical timing that it can release is 2025 or 2026. That is the point I’m getting across that either you believe something henceforth you also believe by extension it is not coming anytime soon. Or you do not believe it, and you cannot apply the previous examples that happened earlier in this scenario, as they are two completely different circumstances.


But like I said, I have no horse in the race for the first half of 2023, I don’t believe that at all at this point. I’m just pointing out that there’s an admittance to something without realization of what that is.




also, happy new year

no

 

[Dakhil]

Talking about BW, if Drake is for 2024, we should expect more BW than 102GB/s. What do you think?

Depends on if Drake has a memory controller that supports up to LPDDR5X when Drake's taped out. There's a possibility LPDDR5 is not forwards compatible with LPDDR5X, similar to how LPDDR4 is not forwards compatible with LPDDR4X.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

no

Space Godzilla if you’re not gonna contribute anything at all, do not quote me at all ever again because you’re being a pretty annoying at this point

 

[ShadowFox08]

Basically what I’m saying is that if we’re gonna base the timing on the publicly leaked information or lack there of, we cannot assume 2023 and 2024 are on the table, we have to assume at that point that 2025/2026 are the windows, and you have to ask yourself if you actually really believe such a thing.

Someone mentioned something about developer kits being out 1.5 years prior to the launch of the new system, 1.5 Years after today would be the middle of 2024, but we haven’t seen anything at all. So does that mean that there are zero dev kits in hands yet? And for a 2024 EoY launch, it would be around February that we start hearing anything? Because otherwise it means as of now devs don’t really have anything

Someone also mentioned that a lot of people would be in the know about this, but Nintendo would brief these third-party developers with a window for which they’re targeting with their games. But we haven’t heard a single thing about any window even if far out? So how are people confident in 2024 when they have even heard a single peep from any developer? Some devs would be talking about something they have targeting X window at Y companies, and that would have leaked of some project in the works with platforms. Microsoft is infamous in this regard but not the norm, however third parties are a different case. Capcom suffered a random ware leak that had games planned even as far out as 2024, and no mention of an additional platform. Of course this can just mean that Capcom has zero interest in the Nintendo next platform for their games, but that doesn’t stop ports of previous titles like they’ve done with the current switch whenever feasible.



We don’t know anything as of current time from developers, 2024 is less than a year away after all.

It's also possible that Nintendo is really really serious with their NDA, and threaten not just legal action but withdrawing support on their platform.

Remember the "11 devs incident" and one Zynga being called out as a source. I bet there was hell to pay from Nintendo, and it enforced everyone working with Nintendo to take swift action with holding NDAs with their employees or get terminated and risk legal action.

In general, they have been really tight lipped about things.

Well, let me ask you something. How can you be so sure your friend is telling the truth and or isn't confusing things. You've mentioned before he works for a publisher, are you certain it's a Nintendo product and they specifically told you it's next-gen Switch game? I could see a lot of misunderstanding happening if you are speaking in generalities and making assumptions based on their answers. A lot of leakers seem to be like that. Never getting clear answers and just assuming things based on cryptic answers.

As for MK9, I'm not very confident we'll get one in 2024. Nintendo may go with doing a 4K 60FPS remaster of MK8 at the start of the generation and allow people who have the game on Switch to upgrade.

Imo, 2024 seems kinda early for mk9 because the DLC finishing up in 2023. Q4 2024 could work at the earliest maybe, but wouldn't surprise me if mk9 rolled into 2025.

Using the highest clocks and Drake beats Xbox One and One S on both and PS4 only beats it on pixel rate.

Yeah I saw that.

 

[Discostew]

The Origami King and other software are just a massively different thing than the launch of a completely new console, there's just so many more moving parts and actors outside of Nintendo that must have information.

I mainly used that game as a point about Nintendo being tight-lipped. As was noted before, leaks about chip production generally don't happen. It's not until the console as a whole gets produced that leaks begin to flow out. We also need to take into account the risk any leaker would have with major information. Nintendo is known to be ruthless against anyone under NDA, and their ninjas are watching.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Slinks in, peeks at thread, slinks back out

Space Godzilla if you’re not gonna contribute anything at all, do not quote me at all ever again because you’re being a pretty annoying at this point

Hide their content. There are a couple users here I do that for, and it makes life much more pleasant.

 

[HankyPanky]

I Wanna Believe

Happy New Year everyone. especially happy to see those sticking to their guns re Zelda/Drake who may or may not know more than the rest of us, at least in a third hand sort of way.

one thing is for sure there is a lot to reconcile between the increasingly small launching with Zelda crowd and recent comments/leaks and everything else that seems to be unfolding. Nintendo is certainly not doomed and their next system is an easy home-run if it's simply a beefier Switch, however beefy and pretty much whenever it launches. however I strongly believe they are 'fumbling the bag' if Drake does not launch next year. Zelda is the perfect title for 4k, huge open world with lots of detail. and Pikmin is more ideal 4k fodder. keeping the price down IMO is not a big deal vs striking while the iron is hot. if a 5nm Drake system costs a bit more next year than the following so be it. Unlike before Nintendo doesn't have two branches of systems to worry about. There is no reason why we shouldn't be getting a new system right about now.

and then you have the myriad of third party ports that will follow if Nintendo have a capable system on the market, it will easily carry itself with the enthusiast crowd & sell however many they can pump out for the next couple of years.

I still see the 'next-gen' vs 'refresh' debate as semantics. As soon as there was a system based on Orin, a whole new architecture it was what it was, a new system. 100% next-gen but it seems almost inconveivable it won't have BC. A new Switch, not a reset but a continutation. I believe this 'continuation' will be how they roll with the marketing, play all your favourite Switch titles on the same system but step into a new generation. The interesting thing will be which future first party games get an OG Switch version. Probably most of them for a while and this is where it'll differ to the most recent transitions DS > 3DS, Wii > Wii U where it was a clean break.

Hypothetically if it was coming with Zelda would you expect there not be Zelda OLED? I think that's an easy no that system would happen regardless, it's a no-brainer, it'll sell, it's easy to produce. They could even have loads of units ready months before release. More likely to have a Zelda OLED than a Zelda Drake edition. there wasn't a Zelda edition for the OG Switch launch was there? I'm hoping there's a big enough price difference if we're seeing Drake this year it will be obvious which system is which. Do Nintendo have the balls after burned by previous higher priced hardware releases (3DS, Premium Wii U) to get this thing out when it'll have maximum impact in the broader market? We'll see, all eyes on the Uncles as they get a good rest after the Uncles New Year Party 2022.

 

[TurtleRock]

8 months before switch launched was July 3rd, I'm pretty sure that poster chose that number specifically because right after that is when all this leaked, as you said.

And for a bit more devil's advocate, assuming the form factor is largely the same then we obviously wouldn't be getting many leaks about a new form factor.

The wording was confusing. Mostly wanted to point out that we knew quite a bit about Switch roughly half a year before launch than what we know about Drake at this point in time (for a hypothetical launch with Zelda).

And I don’t agree with the second point. At this point in time a lot more people should have their hands on dev kits, and some people would likely be working with near finalized hardware. I refer you to this old article from Kotaku that interviewed Tom Phillips. The section I find interesting.

It's Reckoning Day For Nintendo Switch Rumor Reporters

On October 20, 2016, Nintendo revealed their next big console, the Switch. To some fans the announcement was no doubt a surprise. But to those of us who have kept a close eye on gaming websites over the past year, it was simply confirmation of rumors that were all already out there.

kotaku.com

“Tom Phillips has a different theory—that the closer we get to the Switch’s launch, the more people get their hands on the thing. The more people who own it, the greater the chances that information will leak.

“While the number of reliable reports has grown over time, this could be seen as a natural, if unintended, byproduct of Nintendo’s long-term evolution from a secretive Kyoto-based company into one with major development, testing and localisation centres around the world,” Phillips told me in a DM. “There are simply more people now with access to Nintendo products in various stages of development than there were even a console generation ago.”

I am not buying that a console that is hypothetically launching in around 6 months would have this little amount of information leaked about it. Like I said, happy to be proven wrong and there’s a sliver of a chance something might happen in January. /shrug

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Am I correct in assuming the pixel and texture rates for Drake are less important than the other listed systems because of DLSS?

Gets a tad bit confusing to me when they all have higher pixel and texture rates than Drake for last gen consoles, although Drake has more cores

Using the highest clocks and Drake beats Xbox One and One S on both and PS4 only beats it on pixel rate.

It’s more like comparing the scenarios of it, as Drake is Ampere-based while the other base consoles are GCN based, and I did see like a 3090 and 90TI does a perform a 6900XT and 6950XT respectively despite having lower texture and pixel rate.



90 and 69XT as examples (respectively):
189.8 GPixel/s
556.0 GTexel/s

288.0 GPixel/s
720.0 GTexel/s


But, the former has a higher bandwidth.

Like Drake should, in theory with those clocks, be equal than the PS4 and XB1 providing it is fed enough.


Curiously, the TX1 and Drake have the same ROP count. But in the case of the TX1, it was overdoing it, while Drake might by doing it just right for it.

Slinks in, peeks at thread, slinks back out


Hide their content. There are a couple users here I do that for, and it makes life much more pleasant.

Hm, I wonder how that’s done on mobile?

 

[Skittzo]

Hm, I wonder how that’s done on mobile?

Just tap the user name and the option pops up.

 

[ArchedThunder]

It’s more like comparing the scenarios of it, as Drake is Ampere-based while the other base consoles are GCN based, and I did see like a 3090 and 90TI does a perform a 6900XT and 6950XT respectively despite having lower texture and pixel rate.



90 and 69XT as examples (respectively):
189.8 GPixel/s
556.0 GTexel/s

288.0 GPixel/s
720.0 GTexel/s


But, the former has a higher bandwidth.

Like Drake should, in theory with those clocks, be equal than the PS4 and XB1 providing it is fed enough.


Curiously, the TX1 and Drake have the same ROP count. But in the case of the TX1, it was overdoing it, while Drake might by doing it just right for it.


Hm, I wonder how that’s done on mobile?

So if the previously mentioned clocks end up accurate is the RAM bandwidth pretty much the only thing that will likely end up behind the PS4?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

So if the previously mentioned clocks end up accurate is the RAM bandwidth pretty much the only thing that will likely end up behind the PS4?

Hm, sorta I think?

3060 and 5700XT perform the same, former has higher TFLOP but the latter has higher Pixel and Texture rate and a higher memory bandwidth for example.

So it’s more like, don’t look at the FLOPs as the only number, it’s more than that

 

[SiG]

It's not like Nintendo hasn't been tight-lipped about various releases before. Take Origami King, for instance. Maybe people probably felt it was time for a new Paper Mario game, but nothing about one ever came about until Nintendo made the official announcement with a release date a mere 2 months out.

I'm still under the impression that the "Switch 2" is coming out this year. Maybe not H1, but still possible. Besides the production information and whatnot, Nintendo's biggest game to date, TotK, has yet to have anything more than teaser trailers (with the last one from mid September), and that game is expected to come out in less than 5 months. Why wouldn't they show a major trailer for it by now? My feeling is that they have one prepared, but didn't want to show it yet because it may not have been compiled from Switch footage, but from the successor.

Wouldn't they want to show that by now to get people interested in the new device? Sure, if it wasn't for the fact that it was the holiday season where they'd want to sell what is currently available. By showing off the successor, that would garner interest in that, but at the same time people would forgo buying a Switch when they could wait a number of months for the better device. If the successor does indeed have Switch backwards compatibility, then why would anyone want to buy a Switch at that point?

Enter the ZOLED. If you can't sell a normal device, sell a limited edition one that has the same guts as the normal device, but with a different coat of paint. I'd imagine the ZOLED isn't going to be the last LE Switch we'll see. The n/3DS was still able to sell somewhat when Switch released because Switch lacked 3DS backwards compatibility. Switch doesn't have that luxury, assuming the successor does indeed have Switch BC.

I still stand by the "Nintendo is as secretive and tight-lipped as ever" approach. If there has one thing consistent about their Directs, it has always been the theme of "Suprise, muthafuckas!"

 

[Terrell]

The Switch was officially revealed 5 months before release and we knew that BotW was a launch game 9 months before release and we knew it was a FY 2017 release 10.5 months before release.

I'm just going to say that the only reason we knew Switch was a FY 2017 release was because they did not want investors in April 2016 to look at their hardware and software sales projections for the coming fiscal year and think they wrote them while huffing enough glue to kill an elephant. Without that context, it would have looked laughable. That's why it was not broadly announced, it was announced to the investor audience. But once that genie was out of the bottle, why even bother hiding that BotW was coming to their new hardware?
But now, they're not obligated to divulge any of that to investors, because any release is happening in the next fiscal year, as will be their sales projections for it.

 

[MP!]

The idea of TotK being some ideal launch title is pretty silly to me.

Twilight Princess and BotW were crossgen launch titles that were extremely popular, but the context is incredibly different. Twilight Princess and BotW launched on old systems that were very unpopular and new systems that were pretty similar in power to the old systems. People really HAD to get a Wii or Switch to get Zelda because they probably didn't have a GameCube or WiiU. That is not the case if TotK is a cross-gen launch title.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo has a PS4 caliber system, they probably want to launch the Switch 2 with a game that shows off its capabilities. TotK looks fine, but it definitely looks like a Switch game. They probably would want a game that looks nearly as good as say Horizon Zero Dawn or Death Stranding to show that this is a whole leap. The WiiU launching with the very graphically unimpressive NSMBU probably hurt the system a good bit compared to if it launched with 3D World or Mario Kart 8. A 4K60 TotK would obviously be appealing, but it wouldn't really be the launch showpiece that you need to show how powerful your system is.

A drake version of TOTK would not just be the switch version running at higher res

Ray tracing, (A0, shadows, reflections, lighting), draw distance, texture quality, frame rates, resolution, certain models poly count…. Load times..

Any number of these things can and will be added/improved and the comparison shots would be night and day.

So yeah TOTK might not be all that impressive for drake

BUT A Drake version WOULD be

Not only that but I think it would be a perfect way to show that going forward… sure, you can still get our great titles on switch but the Best versions will only be available on “Next switch”

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

A drake version of TOTK would not just be the switch version running at higher res

Ray tracing, (A0, shadows, reflections, lighting), draw distance, texture quality, frame rates, resolution, certain models poly count…. Load times..

Any number of these things can and will be added/improved and the comparison shots would be night and day.

So yeah TOTK might not be all that impressive for drake

BUT A Drake version WOULD be

Not only that but I think it would be a perfect way to show that going forward… sure, you can still get our great titles on switch but the Best versions will only be available on “Next switch”

I am very doubtful that 4K60 TotK with better loads and lighting would be as impressive as a showcase for the system as a big budget exclusive made from the ground up for the Switch 2.

I am also extremely doubtful that the Switch 2 will have meaningfully good raytracing. The PS5 and Xbox Series X are completely incompetent when it comes to raytracing.

 

[Hermii]

A drake version of TOTK would not just be the switch version running at higher res

Ray tracing, (A0, shadows, reflections, lighting), draw distance, texture quality, frame rates, resolution, certain models poly count…. Load times..

Any number of these things can and will be added/improved and the comparison shots would be night and day.

So yeah TOTK might not be all that impressive for drake

BUT A Drake version WOULD be

Not only that but I think it would be a perfect way to show that going forward… sure, you can still get our great titles on switch but the Best versions will only be available on “Next switch”

This, and imo the game would suit itself particularly well to 4K, better LOD, and higher draw distance due to it's literally a game about skydiving. Taking in the landscape below would be a night and day difference on much better hardware.

Even if they don't bother with fancy stuff like RT.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I am also extremely doubtful that the Switch 2 will have meaningfully good raytracing. The PS5 and Xbox Series X are completely incompetent when it comes to raytracing.

when you're trying to target Pixar quality, sure. when you just want to remove the ugly, low res shadow maps, it's great and cheap

 

[Hermii]

I am very doubtful that 4K60 TotK with better loads and lighting would be as impressive as a showcase for the system as a big budget exclusive made from the ground up for the Switch 2.

I am also extremely doubtful that the Switch 2 will have meaningfully good raytracing. The PS5 and Xbox Series X are completely incompetent when it comes to raytracing.

I don't get this argument. Can you really say the Dark Souls remake and Ratchet (not counting the ssd stuff) are much better next gen showcases than GOW, Forza Horizon or Horizon forbidden west?

 

[YugamiSekai]

If Nintendo does have anything planned for April outside of the Mario movie, could it be Pikmin? Remembering how BotW didn't have it's release date officially revealed (outside of the year) until the exact same time as the Switch, couldn't the same be said for Pikmin and Drake?

(depending on how far in development it is, of course, it could very well be a Late 2023 title instead)

 

[LiC]

I'll just keep explaining the obvious: more information about the physical nature of the original Switch leaked because that information was novel and unknown and what absolutely everyone wanted to know in 2016, and those conversations were happening because Nintendo had already announced the existence of the console and its release month. Whereas we're expecting the upcoming Switch model to change very few physical specs, so there's nothing to report on there, and it's not a mainstream topic because it hasn't been announced and the last couple years are not remotely comparable to 2015 and 2016 in terms of pressure on Nintendo's business.

The things that are different (the SoC and its features, and release timing) were reported on extensively by Bloomberg and others. So far the timing information turned out to be wrong, but that doesn't mean the reporting didn't happen. The fact that all sources reported on it as a "Switch model" tells you that, as far as developers are concerned, it doesn't have anything nearly as newsworthy as the original Switch's hybrid concept to report on.

And as I've already covered in the past, there were two events between late 2021 and early 2022 that made mainstream reporting on new Nintendo hardware less attractive.

Finally, it's totally ahistorical to act like the leaks about the original Switch hardware are the only way hardware has ever been reported on prior to its reveal and say that if you don't see the exact same things happening, it means hardware isn't coming.

The "we would have heard about it by now" argument works if you're making the (bold and courageous) assertion that new hardware isn't going to be released in the next couple months. It does not conveniently work to move the date for new hardware all the way into 2024 or whatever year you already thought it was happening.

 

[theguy]

our moustachioed plumbers have been especially busy recently thats why there’s no leaks guys

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'll just keep explaining the obvious: more information about the physical nature of the original Switch leaked because that information was novel and unknown and what absolutely everyone wanted to know in 2016, and those conversations were happening because Nintendo had already announced the existence of the console and its release month. Whereas we're expecting the upcoming Switch model to change very few physical specs, so there's nothing to report on there, and it's not a mainstream topic because it hasn't been announced and the last couple years are not remotely comparable to 2015 and 2016 in terms of pressure on Nintendo's business.

The things that are different (the SoC and its features, and release timing) were reported on extensively by Bloomberg and others. So far the timing information turned out to be wrong, but that doesn't mean the reporting didn't happen. The fact that all sources reported on it as a "Switch model" tells you that, as far as developers are concerned, it doesn't have anything nearly as newsworthy as the original Switch's hybrid concept to report on.

And as I've already covered in the past, there were two events between late 2021 and early 2022 that made mainstream reporting on new Nintendo hardware less attractive.

Finally, it's totally ahistorical to act like the leaks about the original Switch hardware are the only way hardware has ever been reported on prior to its reveal and say that if you don't see the exact same things happening, it means hardware isn't coming.

The "we would have heard about it by now" argument works if you're making the (bold and courageous) assertion that new hardware isn't going to be released in the next couple months. It does not conveniently work to move the date for new hardware all the way into 2024 or whatever year you already thought it was happening.

Yes, hardware could release November 2023 potentially.

But it's just not going to launch in the next six months which is what some people were trying to argue.

 

[Alovon11]

our moustachioed plumbers have been especially busy recently thats why there’s no leaks guys

The reason there are no major leaks is the biggest things that could've leaked already leaked so (reasonably) Nintendo doesn't want anything else leaking.

The NVIDIA hack in relation to Drake is the equivalent of everyone learning the Processor of the Xbox Series X and PS5 in 2019 and learning that those specs were settled at some point in late 2018.

For a system where the bump in processing power is its most defining feature, that is one of the things you DO NOT want to leak if you want to control the narrative of the system (Which companies do).

It is perfectly reasonable to expect Nintendo to stranglehold/tighten NDAs to keep anything else leaking after the Mochizuki Developers and NVIDIA Hack leaks, even if the content of the former could be misinterpreted to some extent, a company wants control of the narrative about their own hardware, when it's coming out, what it's coming out with.etc

 

[theguy]

The reason there are no major leaks is the biggest things that could've leaked already leaked so (reasonably) Nintendo doesn't want anything else leaking.

The NVIDIA hack in relation to Drake is the equivalent of everyone learning the Processor of the Xbox Series X and PS5 in 2019 and learning that those specs were settled at some point in late 2018.

For a system where the bump in processing power is its most defining feature, that is one of the things you DO NOT want to leak if you want to control the narrative of the system (Which companies do).

It is perfectly reasonable to expect Nintendo to stranglehold/tighten NDAs to keep anything else leaking after the Mochizuki Developers and NVIDIA Hack leaks, even if the content of the former could be misinterpreted to some extent, a company wants control of the narrative about their own hardware, when it's coming out, what it's coming out with.etc

geez tough crowd
sorry for my bad joke

 

[TurtleRock]

Yes, hardware could release November 2023 potentially.

But it's just not going to launch in the next six months which is what some people were trying to argue.

Yup, the “we haven’t heard about it yet” argument works because we would have heard of it by now if it was launching in a few months. Way too many people would have some hands on access to this thing for it not to leak.

Also not buying the argument that we knew more about the physical look of the Switch because it was “more novel.” That’s not how news reporting works. Just because a console looks similar to its predecessor doesn’t mean a reporter wouldn’t care about the info nor relay it to their audience. In fact, I argue it would be incredibly newsworthy to find out how the new console physically looks like. Solid confirmation of “Yes, this new console looks just like the Switch but it’s packing some serious power” is absolutely news worthy and would be a major story.

 

[Hermii]

Yup, the “we haven’t heard about it yet” argument works because we would have heard of it by now if it was launching in a few months. Way too many people would have some hands on access to this thing for it not leak.

Also not buying the argument that we knew more about the physical look of the Switch because it was “more novel.” That’s not how news reporting works. Just because a console looks similar to its predecessor doesn’t mean a reporter wouldn’t care about the info nor relay it to their audience. In fact, I argue it would be incredibly newsworthy to find out how the new console physically looks like. Solid confirmation of “Yes, this new console looks just like the Switch but it’s packing some serious power” is absolutely news worthy and would be a major story.

Assuming its literally just an oled with Drake in it, there are a lot less possible leaking avenues, as most of the supply chain and manufacturing would be the same.

 

[karmitt]

geez tough crowd
sorry for my bad joke

excellent joke. this thread needs all the ham it can get.

 

[CypressFX]

Yes, hardware could release November 2023 potentially.

But it's just not going to launch in the next six months which is what some people were trying to argue.

Please say: In my opinion.

You act like it obeys your word.

This thing can and will launch by a 75% chance with Zelda.

Have you never noticed in the last couple of months how hard it has become for Nate, Bloomberg etc. to predict Nintendo?

Nate couldnt even tell prior to the June Direct what type is it. Nate is a very reliable insider, and these misses just show how hard it has become.

As for Hardware the same: Almost every rumour about Ada and RDNA 3 was wrong and this coming from one of the most reliable leakers : kopite7kimi and Greymon55


So just chill, if it launches, it will launch in May or with a possible Mario 3D in Late 2023. Otherwise you will not see this thing for the next 2-3 years.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Yup, the “we haven’t heard about it yet” argument works because we would have heard of it by now if it was launching in a few months. Way too many people would have some hands on access to this thing for it not to leak.

Also not buying the argument that we knew more about the physical look of the Switch because it was “more novel.” That’s not how news reporting works. Just because a console looks similar to its predecessor doesn’t mean a reporter wouldn’t care about the info nor relay it to their audience. In fact, I argue it would be incredibly newsworthy to find out how the new console physically looks like. Solid confirmation of “Yes, this new console looks just like the Switch but it’s packing some serious power” is absolutely news worthy and would be a major story.

Realistically a story is going to find something more to say than "Breaking news: Next Switch is a tablet with two removable controller parts that can be used individually." for readers to not just laugh at it.

 

[Gyemknight]

Oh fuck my head hurts.

Happy New Year to you all.

1.

All the past weeks info has taught us is that Drake is no longer being positioned as part of the current Switch family of systems and is now going to be positioned as a true next generation Nintendo product (I’m actually pleased to hear that because it will mean more games will be exclusive to it quicker and new games will not be held back by a 2015 mobile chip).

2.

A special collectors edition OLED doesn’t mean a new Switch can’t arrive on the same day (cardboard, stickers, OLED shells and Joycons aren’t the issue with manufacturing it’s the new main board that can be tricky to build in mass numbers in this new era).

3.

Drake is still planned for Q2 ‘23 as of December’22. Zelda 2 launch obviously.

I’ll post more info if I get any.

Sorry when I blew my top the other day I just thought the abuse Nate was getting from some was totally shitty. My post was out of order though so apologies <3 x

I just don't feel like it will lauch with TOTK it really just doesn't feel like it cpuld happen.

 

[Look over there]

Oh. No worries. In that case, don't think we'll get PS5 specs until switch 3, maybe. Will be interesting to see. I feel like it's more limited for mobilr

Looking at that indiegogo page..

1. Direct comparisons with SD with GPU and CPU speed benchmarks. Shots fired much?
2. GPU is ~ 50% faster than SD's according to bench marks, even though they are bragging that the GPU can reach 3.6-4 3 tflops
3. 2x the CPU cores as SD with a base frequency of 2.7 GHz and s high as 4.7 GHz turbo boost apparently. 80% faster single core and 140% faster multi threaded apparently. I'm just gonna go ahead and say it's gonna gonna compete with current gen console CPU speeds.
4. 1080p screen that can be down sampled to 720p 16 by 9. Nice
5. $800-1200 price. 512GB space and 16GB RAM to 2TB space and 32GB RAM
6.Ok, this REALLY piqued my interest..I wasn't expecting this all. Theoretical 32 bit 4 channel lpddr5 RAM reaching 204.8 GB/s?! WTF?!

Anyway, something feels off about their spec sheet. it's 6nm at 28 watt TDP, but I dunno if it's for whole soc or just CPU. The bandwidth is the most shocking to me, if it ends up being legit. 204.8 GB/s would be the most for a handheld in that form factor, but how does four 32 bit channels get to 204.8 GB/s bandwidth? Never seen numbers like that for lppdr..Assumed an accumulative of 256 bit bus bandwidth would reach it. Its weird how they say "theoretical."

But if Drake 2 could reach that bandwidth, that would really make it future proof. Doubt it will, but i guess that makes handheld devices possible to have that much?

It's a mistake on their part. It's supposed to be 102.4 GB/s.
The 6800U is a consumer chip. Consumer chips selling for 3 digit USD do not go beyond 128-bit memory bus width.
It's less technical limitations and more market segmentation. AMD and Intel do offer SKUs with wider memory bus (and more PCIe lanes for that matter), just not for 3 digit USD. Traditionally, you'd have to look at what's referred to as HEDT (High-End DeskTops), or even further above. Although the HEDT market's been hollowed out lately...

...actually, I'm wrong; there are low core count (4 and 6 cores) Xeon-W SKUs that offer 256-bit memory bus for 3 digit USD. And Xeon Bronze SKUs offering 384-bit memory bus for 3 digit USD. Back in 2017. But they're still not consumer chips
(and certainly not in laptop form!)

 

[TurtleRock]

Realistically a story is going to find something more to say than "Breaking news: Next Switch is a tablet with two removable controller parts that can be used individually." for readers to not just laugh at it.

Realistically, the headline would likely be “Breaking News: Nintendo preparing to launch much more powerful Switch in 202X.”

And that’s if it was the same exact form factor. I don’t think anyone would laugh at that headline. And it would be the biggest gaming story of the year IMO.

 

[Skittzo]

I guess I'm kinda curious what leaks people are expecting to have heard by now. Release dates usually don't leak, and besides clocks that's about all we don't know yet.

The chip has leaked, the form factor is supposedly more or less the same, a number of studios that have it (at least 11) have leaked, as has at least Star Wars Hunters... Like, what else are we hoping to hear?

 

[Dmax3901]

The idea of TotK being some ideal launch title is pretty silly to me.

Twilight Princess and BotW were crossgen launch titles that were extremely popular, but the context is incredibly different. Twilight Princess and BotW launched on old systems that were very unpopular and new systems that were pretty similar in power to the old systems. People really HAD to get a Wii or Switch to get Zelda because they probably didn't have a GameCube or WiiU. That is not the case if TotK is a cross-gen launch title.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo has a PS4 caliber system, they probably want to launch the Switch 2 with a game that shows off its capabilities. TotK looks fine, but it definitely looks like a Switch game. They probably would want a game that looks nearly as good as say Horizon Zero Dawn or Death Stranding to show that this is a whole leap. The WiiU launching with the very graphically unimpressive NSMBU probably hurt the system a good bit compared to if it launched with 3D World or Mario Kart 8. A 4K60 TotK would obviously be appealing, but it wouldn't really be the launch showpiece that you need to show how powerful your system is.

While I don't disagree with your point about the usefulness of using the launch of TotK to try and work out the launch of the Switch 2, I do think you're greatly underestimating how good even BotW looks running at 4k/60fps.

It is absolutely a generational leap imo and I think Nintendo could easily market it as such with side-by-side video comparisons.

 

[Gyemknight]

Sorry but when did we get conclusive info that it was going to launch with TOTK imo it just isn't plausible or possible.

Let me explain, if the console launched within the next 5 months then this month they would announce it no.

If we were going to get the console with TOTK it would flop harder than if it didn't because people would be caught up in the hype of Zelda and not even pay attention to it, it isn't plausible as a marketing strategy to launch it with a game that makes it go unnoticed by most of the world thats why either before or after TOTK makes alot more sense marketing and sales wise.

 

[YugamiSekai]

Sorry but when did we get conclusive info that ot was going to launch with TOTK

I'm still trying to get conclusive info that suggests otherwise

 

[ArchedThunder]

Assuming its literally just an oled with Drake in it, there are a lot less possible leaking avenues, as most of the supply chain and manufacturing would be the same.

I don’t think they’re going to just reuse the OLED’s casing as they’ll probably want it to be visibly different from the previous gen.

 

[Terrell]

I guess I'm kinda curious what leaks people are expecting to have heard by now. Release dates usually don't leak, and besides clocks that's about all we don't know yet.

The chip has leaked, the form factor is supposedly more or less the same, a number of studios that have it (at least 11) have leaked, as has at least Star Wars Hunters... Like, what else are we hoping to hear?

You also forgot that game announcements are verboten because of NDA embargoes, where nothing can be announced without Nintendo at least confirming the device exists.

Realistically, the headline would likely be “Breaking News: Nintendo preparing to launch much more powerful Switch in 202X.”

And that’s if it was the same exact form factor. I don’t think anyone would laugh at that headline. And it would be the biggest gaming story of the year IMO.

To do that, they'd have to have heard the release year and there's no guarantee that they have contacts divulging that info. It's not as though every dev with kit access is walking around with all the info on a photocopy and telling everyone who will listen.
They can't report on a release year based on the Linux commit we found, because the Linux commit was valuable information only because we knew definitively that T239 was related to Nintendo from information in a data breach. Fruit of the poison tree, potential legal consequences for media outlets reporting in that direction.
There was already reporting on dev kits being in the wild and... we know how that turned out, that well became poisoned when Nintendo turned their withering gaze at Bloomberg and Zynga and there is still debate on the validity of that reporting to this day; people still call Mochizuki a liar, no journo wants to put up with that.

It has created an environment, like @LiC mentioned, where there's no good avenue to approach reporting certain information until it comes from Nintendo's mouth, which really limits things. And without some real standout physical differentiation, factory leaks become a lot less likely, the thing can basically hide in plain sight.

 

[Hidden04]

We have a vague idea of when this device is launching, sometime in the first half of 2023. At this point it seems that the device is not mid-gen but a new generation, or a Switch 2 idk. But info is locked up so tight that who knows when this device is really coming out.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I guess I'm kinda curious what leaks people are expecting to have heard by now. Release dates usually don't leak, and besides clocks that's about all we don't know yet.

The chip has leaked, the form factor is supposedly more or less the same, a number of studios that have it (at least 11) have leaked, as has at least Star Wars Hunters... Like, what else are we hoping to hear?

The actual release window? lol

If this is launching in five months, a lot of third-parties are going to be preparing software for a brand new console launching within a couple of months and they would probably be talking to major news outlets about it and what they think.

It could release Fall 2023, Spring 2024, Summer 2024, Fall 2024, 2025, etc, but there's just nowhere near enough talk for something releasing before Fall 2023.

You think literally none of the programmers optimizing their game for the Switch 2 are going to be excitedly texting WSJ people saying "my game comes out in four months, but we're working on the Switch 2 optimization already! It must be launching very soon!"

 

[Skittzo]

I'm still trying to get conclusive info that suggests otherwise

It's a lot harder to prove a negative to be fair.

 

[Kevin]

A part of my weird head space is that Nintendo leaked that Switch TOTK OLED model pics among the other Zelda leaks in order to throw people off the trail. It is kind of weird that Digital Foundry said they heard the Switch Pro was canceled and then all of the sudden we get like three Zelda leaks within like a couple of days from the Digital Foundry news. I think the other two Zelda leaks look fake (opinion) but the leaked Switch Zelda OLED model definitely looked real to me. That being said, I see some people who think it could be a well done fake. Wouldn't it be wild if this was intentionally leaked in order to disappoint fans and then surprise us all with actual new hardware in time for the release of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom? It also seemed kind of weird that this is a product already getting leaked MONTHS before Zelda. Even if Nintendo intended to release it in March or April, that's a very early leak. I mean I guess it's possible Nintendo already made these consoles in 2022 and stored them in a warehouse somewhere but man that is definitely early.

 

[ArchedThunder]

We have a vague idea of when this device is launching, sometime in the first half of 2023. At this point it seems that the device is not mid-gen but a new generation, or a Switch 2 idk. But info is locked up so tight that who knows when this device is really coming out.

We don’t know that, it could launch in the second half of the year or even early next year.