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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Corim said:
My launch switch is starting to show its age as well. I haven't been too tempted to pick up an OLED yet, but I might get one a while after the Switch's successor eventually releases for the sake of ensuring that I can play the massive library of Switch games that I've picked up over the last six years for archival purposes. Whenever next gen kicks off, I'm going purely digital. I don't think I can handle a second console's worth of physical media.
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What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
 
It's kinda incredible how Nintendo didn't release a more powerful switch revision in 6 years.

I see the OLED and I can't believe that it isn't any more powerful than a standard switch. A friend of mine that isn't a Nintendo fan was surprised when I said it wasn't.

I think I'll replace the battery from my 2017 V1 switch and wait to see what happens next year.
 
Corim said:
I don't see that happening. Even if the Switch's successor ends up being over a year away, I feel like we won't be seeing a lite version of the OLED.
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If the switch 2 is $400ish I could see Nintendo releasing a switch lite 2 for maybe $300 about two years after launch when T239 is cheaper to manufacturer
 
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evandro7047301 said:
It's kinda incredible how Nintendo didn't release a more powerful switch revision in 6 years.

I see the OLED and I can't believe it isn't any more powerful than a standard switch. A friend of mine that isn't a Nintendo fan was surprised when I said it wasn't.

I think I'll replace the battery from my 2017 V1 switch and wait to see what happens next year.
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Not that incredible imo most of Nintendos fanbase are the most casual gamers in the industry and are very brand loyal to the point where they defend Nintendo for things like the new pokemon for example
 
Pokemaniac said:
The system already seems to be a tough sell, and making it more expensive isn't going to help with that. Especially when it's supposed to be the budget model.
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Tough sell? Haven't they sold millions of switch lites? I don't think profit for Nintendo creates any problems. It's an easy sell for people who only play handheld like myself I have never had the urge to dock the switch so I got a lite and saved myself a $100 easy
 
Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
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Aren't some launch Switch consoles prone to warping where they actually curve in the middle of the body? I don't notice that particular defect on mine, but I do know for some reason there's a crack in the backplate shell from the power button on a diagonal down about an inch in length to the side of the console's joycon rail.

I've never so much as dropped my console and it's babied when it's outside the dock (which is maybe 20% of my overall usage); I have no idea how it got a crack like that (even if it is strictly superficial) but it's something I've been keenly aware of that my Switch apparently isn't of the highest quality build.
 
Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
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My launch Switch has a few issues with it. Nothing dealbreaking, but it sometimes thinks that the right Joycon isn't connected when it's physically attached to the system, the grate on cooling vent on the top of the system got cracked and has since been lost, and the kickstand will detach from the console if you look at it funny.
 
Kazuyamishima said:
Tough sell? Haven't they sold millions of switch lites? I don't think profit for Nintendo creates any problems. It's an easy sell for people who only play handheld like myself I have never had the urge to dock the switch so I got a lite and saved myself a $100 easy
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It's doing fine, but it's pretty clearly the less popular model.
 
Corim said:
My launch Switch has a few issues with it. Nothing dealbreaking, but it sometimes thinks that the right Joycon isn't connected when it's physically attached to the system, the grate on cooling vent on the top of the system got cracked and has since been lost, and the kickstand will detach from the console if you look at it funny.
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Brofield said:
Aren't some launch Switch consoles prone to warping where they actually curve in the middle of the body? I don't notice that particular defect on mine, but I do know for some reason there's a crack in the backplate shell from the power button on a diagonal down about an inch in length to the side of the console's joycon rail.

I've never so much as dropped my console and it's babied when it's outside the dock (which is maybe 20% of my overall usage); I have no idea how it got a crack like that (even if it is strictly superficial) but it's something I've been keenly aware of that my Switch apparently isn't of the highest quality build.
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Yikes neither of those sound good sounds like Nintendo needs to focus on build quality a little more especially since it's a handheld device
Kind of a reason why I love my lite it's all one piece I have dropped it so many times and it's held up fantastic
 
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Corim said:
I don't see that happening. Even if the Switch's successor ends up being over a year away, I feel like we won't be seeing a lite version of the OLED.
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Pokemaniac said:
Basically zero. Before or after.

Putting a more expensive screen on a Switch Lite is going to create more problems than it solves.
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These responses are making me think about finally buying a Lite...

bmfrosty said:
Given global inflation lately, I wouldn't be surprised if they want to put out a $250 Switch Lite OLED model to replace the current Switch Lite.
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...and this one has me hesitating. 🤷‍♂️

I appreciate all the responses!
 
Brofield said:
Aren't some launch Switch consoles prone to warping where they actually curve in the middle of the body? I don't notice that particular defect on mine, but I do know for some reason there's a crack in the backplate shell from the power button on a diagonal down about an inch in length to the side of the console's joycon rail.

I've never so much as dropped my console and it's babied when it's outside the dock (which is maybe 20% of my overall usage); I have no idea how it got a crack like that (even if it is strictly superficial) but it's something I've been keenly aware of that my Switch apparently isn't of the highest quality build.
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Mine hasn't warped either (probably because I just use it as a handheld, I've heard horror stories about Switches overheating while docked), but I have a very similar crack in the exact same location on my launch Switch, although mine's closer to a right-angle than a diagonal break.
 
Corim said:
Mine hasn't warped either (probably because I just use it as a handheld, I've heard horror stories about Switches overheating while docked), but I have a very similar crack in the exact same location on my launch Switch, although mine's closer to a right-angle than a diagonal break.
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I play 80% docked. no problems. launch Switch.

The only thing I can think of is I live in Canada and indoor temps at home is usually around 15-20 degrees C most year, i gets up to 35 C in the summer.
 
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Hidden04 said:
Tears of the Kingdom OLED doesn't impact new hardware releasing next year, it's a special edition for collectors and it's weeks, perhaps months before the game, it has no bearing on Drake, as Drake is aimed at hardcore Nintendo fans first who will pay 400+ dollars day one.
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Maybe you‘re right but you have to admit you are doing a lot assumptions based off a subjective perspective that you just want that console releasing in May.

We really don‘t know if Drake is aimed at a hardcore crowd at first, this always was a speculation based on how powerful this hardware seem or how it would fit in the picture if Nintendo wants to do a slow transition. And even then I feel like this idea died somewhat with a mid-gen refresh in 2020/21. If Drake is their next big thing, it needs to be appealing to everyone, even with a slow transition. But even if it is a device for an hardcore crowd, there is likely a lot of overlap between those and people who buy a special edition OLED Switch. To me this would make no sense marketing wise (not that Nintendo ever makes sense but it is only logical to consider that, especially when we look what other theories exist in this thread IMO). Of course it is not set in stone with that, but this is just another sign pointing that Nintendo isn‘t planing for a H1 launch of Drake.
 
Awena said:
wait, what? I'll believe it when I'll see it
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Nate kinda has a tendency to forgot to complete his sentences whenever he wants to drop a piece of information. It's his style.
But it shouldn't make you forget that even if he's right, plans can shift anytime. Also, it could be a mobile game, who knows :p.

Finally, everything he says should be taken with a pinch of salt. I am not saying he wants to mislead us but the Past is a good advisor.
 
This is an agonizing amount of copium here… but perhaps the question from the curiously now-deleted Reddit account - “do you think everyone is primed and ready?” - isn’t about Metroid at all but rather that this last week of leaks and rumors has us “primed” for something to happen soon.

prime (verb): prepare (someone) for a situation or task, typically by supplying them with relevant information
 
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kirbyfan407 said:
With the talk that a mid-gen "pro" refresh has been abandoned and what's coming next is a successor, price is now the piece that puzzles me.

I think of a mid-gen pro refresh as a model that exists alongside other previous models and will lose support at the same time as those previous models, while I think of a successor as a system that is replacing the old system in Nintendo's focus and whose life cycle has a new starting point.

When I thought of a "pro" model coming, I thought that it would make sense for Nintendo to price it at a premium ($400-$500) while continuing to sell cheaper options starting at $200 that could still entice casual buyers. I believed an increase in price made sense for a "pro" model given the better specs, target audience, and realities of chip manufacturing and the supply chain in 2023.

Now that I'm expecting a successor and new generation, I don't know how to think about pricing. For this new console, I'm imagining that means better specs (Drake?), an updated controller, and possibly other enhancements to meet evolving customer expectations. I can't imagine any of that taken together could be cheaper to make than the OLED today, which is already priced at $350 in the US. I believe Nintendo has said the OLED model has worse margins than its other systems, so I can't see Nintendo having the financial wiggle room with a successor to comfortably sell it at $350.

So what does Nintendo price the successor at? Would they really go up to $400-$500 when Switch started at $300 and Series S and PS5 Digital Editions are sold at $300 and $400, respectively? Would Nintendo be willing to sell systems at a loss? If Nintendo waits to avoid such an outcome, at what point does a successor with a chip as advanced as Drake become cheap enough to sell at $300-$350? If waiting isn't a viable solution, what could Nintendo otherwise do to achieve this price? Am I wrong for thinking of this successor as inherently more expensive compared to the OLED model?

My sticking point isn't that I doubt Nintendo's ability to produce a $400-$500 device that's a good value to a customer like me. It's that Nintendo's products have historically been cheaper than other consoles and it seems to me like a gamble to significantly increase Switch 2's launch price compared to Switch's.

If anyone has ideas for how Nintendo could play this, I'd be happy to hear your perspective.
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OLED has "worse" margins, but you need to know what the margins of each device are before you can understand how it's worse. Example: if you had 3 businesses, with 2 of them making $500 million a year and the 3rd making $499 million a year, the 3rd company has "worse" profitability, but in the grand scheme of things, that doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot.

I've said it before (recently on Install Base, in fact) and I'll say it again: Switch going almost 6 years with no price drop has distorted what people think new hardware they are capable of producing at a market-friendly price. But the only thing that's actually changed is how much money Nintendo is making on hardware sold in the tail end of its lifespan; the costs of parts to build them have fallen substantially, and what can be achieved now for the same cost Nintendo paid for parts back in 2016/2017 is not out of line with what we've heard so far.
 
Terrell said:
OLED has "worse" margins, but you need to know what the margins of each device are before you can understand how it's worse. Example: if you had 3 businesses, with 2 of them making $500 million a year and the 3rd making $499 million a year, the 3rd company has "worse" profitability, but in the grand scheme of things, that doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot.

I've said it before (recently on Install Base, in fact) and I'll say it again: Switch going almost 6 years with no price drop has distorted what people think new hardware they are capable of producing at a market-friendly price. But the only thing that's actually changed is how much money Nintendo is making on hardware sold in the tail end of its lifespan; the costs of parts to build them have fallen substantially, and what can be achieved now for the same cost Nintendo paid for parts back in 2016/2017 is not out of line with what we've heard so far.
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That makes a lot of sense. I could definitely see the case being that even if Nintendo is displeased by OLED's worse margins, it's only because they're not as massive as the other models', and when pushed into a competitive situation, Nintendo would have the ability to price new hardware at a relatively low price by accepting lower margins without taking a loss.

If you follow sales and financials closely and happen to know, is there anything in Nintendo's financial reports that has suggested that Switch hardware profit margins have increased with time while MSRP has remained the same?
 
Ojoloco said:
www.resetera.com

Reddit Leaker Fun_Way_6592 who teased Tears of the Kingdom title, allegedly says "Do you think everyone is primed and ready?"

F-Zero's time will come in 2023. As for Metroid Prime 1... Retro completed development of the game in late summer of 2021 (for clarity: development finished then -- it still had to go through QA, any localization, and such). The game has been finished for some time now. Nintendo just opted to...
www.resetera.com www.resetera.com

Looks like Fzero in 2023
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If this is true, I'm slightly disappointed in hearing about it from an insider honestly.

Imagine the shock and delight if this showed up in a direct with no warning.
 
mariodk18 said:
I can't see any scenario where Drake gets canceled. One option that makes sense to me is that they found 8nm to be lacking and decided to go for a better node, pushing 8A78Cs, 12 SMs, etc. And thus we're getting it later. Maybe early Drake was Dane (like early-mid 2020, pre COVID) with 6 CPU cores and 8 SMs. Then the pandemic and chip situation quickly made them pivot to the current chip we know and they said, "Screw it, if we're not doing a mid-gen update, then let's go as balls to the wall as we can with Drake".

So 'late 2022-Q1 2023" (which to be fair, MZ only said late 2022 was "the earliest" Drake could release) was "shelved" in favor of something in May with Zelda (slightly less likely now) or a holiday 2023 release. That could be a scenario where 3rd parties said, "well if you're delaying it to make it even more powerful, then that's fine".

Who knows. Just trying to make sense of everything.
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The "8nm sucks so let's move" theory makes no sense to me honestly. They would be very well aware of 8nm performance characteristics before they greenlit the project.
 
Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
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Mine is fine, except the joy cons. Console is constantly losing contact for a few seconds, it makes most games unplayable in handheld mode. I already sent them for repair 2 years ago because they drifted like crazy.

It sucks having to buy 2 New joy cons, shits are expensive, maybe I should just upgrade to Oled. What's stoping me was the hope to see a new model soon.
 
Kenka said:
Nate kinda has a tendency to forgot to complete his sentences whenever he wants to drop a piece of information. It's his style.
But it shouldn't make you forget that even if he's right, plans can shift anytime. Also, it could be a mobile game, who knows :p.

Finally, everything he says should be taken with a pinch of salt. I am not saying he wants to mislead us but the Past is a good advisor.
Click to expand...
No insider is 100%, but he got a good track record.
 
kirbyfan407 said:
That makes a lot of sense. I could definitely see the case being that even if Nintendo is displeased by OLED's worse margins, it's only because they're not as massive as the other models', and when pushed into a competitive situation, Nintendo would have the ability to price new hardware at a relatively low price by accepting lower margins without taking a loss.

If you follow sales and financials closely and happen to know, is there anything in Nintendo's financial reports that has suggested that Switch hardware profit margins have increased with time while MSRP has remained the same?
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, operating profit is not broken down by segment (HW, SW) in Nintendo's financial reports, so nothing super-concrete in the figures (though people have taken to figuring out guesstimates from what an expected profit margin per unit of software is and working backward, but it's not perfect).
But as a general rule, as it has been with every console since the 80s, part prices for most parts in a console fall the more volume of them you buy over time (referred to as an economy of scale). For the SoC, part costs decrease the most dramatically with a die shrink, and Switch got that 2 years in with the change from Erista (20nm) to Mariko (16nm) across the entire product line. So we absolutely should expect Switch to cost far less to produce now than it did in 2017. And we know that in 2017, the cost of parts for a Switch was about $260.
 
kirbyfan407 said:
So what does Nintendo price the successor at? Would they really go up to $400-$500 when Switch started at $300 and Series S and PS5 Digital Editions are sold at $300 and $400, respectively? Would Nintendo be willing to sell systems at a loss? If Nintendo waits to avoid such an outcome, at what point does a successor with a chip as advanced as Drake become cheap enough to sell at $300-$350? If waiting isn't a viable solution, what could Nintendo otherwise do to achieve this price? Am I wrong for thinking of this successor as inherently more expensive compared to the OLED model?
Click to expand...
Switch started at $300, and in retrospect was way too low because they couldn't keep up with demand and haven't had to budge the price for 6 years. If waiting isn't a viable solution, they can: release it at a higher price, and lower the price later when necessary and feasible, as happens with most non-Switch hardware. Considering inflation, a $400 device in 2023 or 2024 is only a tiny step from 2017's $300 anyway. A $450 device would be pretty comparable to if they'd launched Switch at $350.
Kazuyamishima said:
Tough sell? Haven't they sold millions of switch lites? I don't think profit for Nintendo creates any problems. It's an easy sell for people who only play handheld like myself I have never had the urge to dock the switch so I got a lite and saved myself a $100 easy
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Then there must be a dwindling pool of players like that, because Lite sales have dropped way way more than hybrid sales. October 2020 - September 2021: 6.17m. October 2021 - September 2020: 2.79m.
 
It's time to accept that the Switch 2 Will come in 2024. Most probably with a die sink. I was convinced that It Would come with TotK. Well, maybe the rumored action medieval rpg from monolith Will do.
 
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Hermii said:
The "8nm sucks so let's move" theory makes no sense to me honestly. They would be very well aware of 8nm performance characteristics before they greenlit the project.
Click to expand...

When trying to reconcile the leaked T239 that seemed "primed" for a 2023 release and other pieces of information that suggest no new hardware in 2023 (DF, ZOLED and Nate explicitly saying "the revision targeting H1 2023 is canned") there are not that many plausible explanations.

I would also be very surprised if that was the case, but a canned 8nm Drake is not impossible, although a very, very bad outlook for Nintendo.

Of course the simplest explanation is that the information in our possession is incomplete/wrong/misleading in some parts. The timeline of the events is also essential. It's one thing to scrap the 8nm revision in 2021 and pivot to a full-blown successor at that time, a completely different thing to do it now. We need more information to get a better picture.
 
CocaFormula said:
When trying to reconcile the leaked T239 that seemed "primed" for a 2023 release and other pieces of information that suggest no new hardware in 2023 (DF, ZOLED and Nate explicitly saying "the revision targeting H1 2023 is canned") there are not that many plausible explanations.

I would also be very surprised if that was the case, but a canned 8nm Drake is not impossible, although a very, very bad outlook for Nintendo.

Of course the simplest explanation is that the information in our possession is incomplete/wrong/misleading in some parts. The timeline of the events is also essential. It's one thing to scrap the 8nm revision in 2021 and pivot to a full-blown successor at that time, a completely different thing to do it now. We need more information to get a better picture.
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A bit beside the point, but who is ZOLED?
 
Hermii said:
No insider is 100%, but he got a good track record.
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His track record was not the main point of my post. It's more about his communication style. He drops enough information to get people excited but doesn't go into enough details to avoid overexcitment.

I suppose this can be explained by two things: first, he probably is too much of a public figure now and he can't reasonably disclose more information without aggravating people in the industry, and second, it is good for engagement (in a somehow creepy way).
 
Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
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Mine had the shell break near the top of the unit due to that over-tightened screw, small plastic pieces have been breaking off slowly over the years.

Otherwise it's in good shape though. Fan works fine.
 
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Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
Click to expand...
mine doesn’t boot up sometimes. It just stays dead for like a month and then works again randomly. Same with my friends‘
 
Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
Click to expand...
Outside of minor damage over the years, mine has lost the ability to connect the left Joy Con. It still can connect, but only to charge, so I can't play in handheld.

It's my own damn fault because of the way I held my Switch, but I have been waiting for an upgrade for a while now.
 
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Kazuyamishima said:
What does everyone mean when they say their launch switch is showing it's age? From the few people I have talked to about it they mention that it runs louder which is a simple fix. Or that it's not performing like it should, which doesn't make sense because hardware doesn't really degrade like that.
Click to expand...
With mine, I've been noticing a couple performance issues:
  • Sometimes games will lock up/freeze. Audio continues playing but video freezes and input doesn't work.
  • Browsing the eShop while a game is running has gotten worse. I close games before browsing the shop now.
Both could be explained by software updates introducing performance issues, they've started happening in the last 6 months.

I've had a couple Android tablets that had noticable performance degradation without any software updates, so I believe that kind of degradation is possible.
 
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kirbyfan407 said:
These responses are making me think about finally buying a Lite...


...and this one has me hesitating. 🤷‍♂️

I appreciate all the responses!
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The best advice is to not hesitate based on rumours. Why risk not having that enjoyment on the off chance in the future when you can have it now?

One in the hand is worth two in the bush! And you can always sell it later, given how well Switches hold value.
 
Kenka said:
His track record was not the main point of my post. It's more about his communication style. He drops enough information to get people excited but doesn't go into enough details to avoid overexcitment.

I suppose this can be explained by two things: first, he probably is too much of a public figure now and he can't reasonably disclose more information without aggravating people in the industry, and second, it is good for engagement (in a somehow creepy way).
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But I love getting over excited. I just don’t dwell on disappointment, I just move on to the next rumour to get hyped about. I mean they are rumours after all so by definition the info always has a chance to be wrong or right. People need to chill a little when their hopes and dreams don’t come true.
 
AxkilAvenger said:
But I love getting over excited. I just don’t dwell on disappointment, I just move on to the next rumour to get hyped about. I mean they are rumours after all so by definition the info always has a chance to be wrong or right. People need to chill a little when their hopes and dreams don’t come true.
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Yup. Engaging in rumorspace is fine as long as you do it responsibly, keep in mind that it’s all just good fun, and don’t go too far and start legit attacking people.

It’s sort of like kink.
 
Is it plausible to think that the deleted (pre-Drake) version also had DLSS, perhaps in a more primitive form, or does the lack of evidence in the Nvidia documents prove beyond doubt that Drake is the only completed chip?

In practice, does Nvidia delete the discarded prototypes from the internal documents or not?


p. s. what a strange way to spend New Year's Eve
 
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