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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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ReddDreadtheLead said:
The switch will be fine. It’s going to sell above 10 million units the next fiscal year and be closer to 15 to 20M unit range. There is nothing to worry about. It is still selling pretty well despite its age, and it is still selling a ton of software.
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imo hardware will drop off a cliff eventually but software straight up cannot be stopped

this thing has smashed records twice this fall alone
 
ILikeFeet said:
the only way I can possibly make sense of this is
  • dev kits go out based on unspecified hardware in 2020
  • devs are told that these will be replaced by drake
  • drake dev kits are sent out, old dev kits are returned
  • ???
  • old dev kits are "cancelled, were to be released in 2023"
this would be one fucked up game of telephone
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might just be cope but I like this theory a lot

there is no more reasonable a time for "here's a dev kit for a revision of some sort idk" than the pandemic
 
9-Volt said:
Anyone claiming "Nintendo will be ok with just Metroid and Pikmin next fall" is out of their mind. Switch is losing momentum fast, there's no guarantee they'd keep it up until end of next year. There has to be something else, something big. I'm not sure there will be any third party support left late next year to accompany those two games. Maybe not Drake, instead another form factor revision. Switch Lite OLED, anyone?
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Saying this mere months after Splatoon 3 and Pokemon broke sales records is really funny. Even if Hardware sales were to massively slow down it's clear the Switch ecosystem is thriving and that's ultimately what matters.
 
ILikeFeet said:
the only way I can possibly make sense of this is
  • dev kits go out based on unspecified hardware in 2020
  • devs are told that these will be replaced by drake
  • drake dev kits are sent out, old dev kits are returned
  • ???
  • old dev kits are "cancelled, were to be released in 2023"
this would be one fucked up game of telephone
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That unironically seems like what happened. However given the Linux kernel noise and the production "leaks", like how the chip has PCIe timing info and a factory leaker claiming it's going into production in January, I'm convinced that Drake replaced it, including the release window.
 
Raccoon said:
so, bigger picture

dev kits did go out a while ago. that device is now said to be dead. that means that no fewer than eleven publishers have a major bone to pick with nintendo

rather than dooming I'll say that given the circumstances of the pandemic it's unlikely to harm long-term relations in any meaningful way. I bet it was an expensive disaster though
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The majority of those games were being developed to be playable on both...so I assume they can release their basic level games on the current Switch. And then maybe re-release them again as their Deluxe versions whenever Drake is released? (how was Switch Deluxe never suggested as a name anyway?)

I mean, apparently those devkits had DLSS & RT...but I'm assuming not as advanced as Drake...so the devs can just fancy up their games even more. Hey if sitting on some games forever and releasing remastered versions of other games has been working so well for Nintendo, maybe they think other devs would be cool with it too lol
 
Also, if TotK isn’t launching on a new Switch it’s a bit weird they’re waiting or going to wait like 3 month before it comes out to actually show us it properly. We’ve not even had a proper trailer in all honesty.
 
Hermii said:
Like I said, If it wasn't Drake then what was it?

Nate has always been talking about an Orin based (a78/ ampere) device. There are no other candidates.
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Also somewhat curious because there really hasn't been a trail for any other type of device. OLED at least had code and other hints present.
9-Volt said:
Anyone claiming "Nintendo will be ok with just Metroid and Pikmin next fall" is out of their mind. Switch is losing momentum fast, there's no guarantee they'd keep it up until end of next year. There has to be something else, something big. I'm not sure there will be any third party support left late next year to accompany those two games. Maybe not Drake, instead another form factor revision. Switch Lite OLED, anyone?
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I think they could get by with no new HW in 2023, but a Switch 2 in late 2024-2025 will probably have lost momentum quite a bit by then. Also would leave the question of what major flagship software would launch with the console, since a new Zelda after ToTK will be off the table for a few more years. Though I guess they could angle for Mario Kart and another Smash Brothers by then.
 
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Yeah, if even the concept of the new console is unclear yet to Nate, then we can safely say it's still in the oven at a fundamental level and won't come out next year.

But putting Nate aside, I think DF's reaction today is even more telling. They simply don't have anything to communicate about the new Switch and that's a telltale sign that the device isn't anywhere ready. Hell, they even mentioned Nintendo being probably nervous (timestamp : 53:15). Things in the background might not go as smoothly as I have imagined.
 
so this is the fun train
Concernt said:
That unironically seems like what happened. However given the Linux kernel noise and the production "leaks", like how the chip has PCIe timing info and a factory leaker claiming it's going into production in January, I'm convinced that Drake replaced it, including the release window.
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and this is the sad train
Z-Z0 said:
Either way, the T239 Switch in 2023 dream seems to be dead.
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not sure which to board tbh
 
ILikeFeet said:
the only way I can possibly make sense of this is
  • dev kits go out based on unspecified hardware in 2020
  • devs are told that these will be replaced by drake
  • drake dev kits are sent out, old dev kits are returned
  • ???
  • old dev kits are "cancelled, were to be released in 2023"
this would be one fucked up game of telephone
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Polygon did say something about updated devkits a couple months ago (but it was just about RAM I think? those posts have been self-NINJAD I think) and Nate did confirm he had heard similar stuff. Might be plausible.
 
Raccoon said:
so, bigger picture

dev kits did go out a while ago. that device is now said to be dead. that means that no fewer than eleven publishers have a major bone to pick with nintendo

rather than dooming I'll say that given the circumstances of the pandemic it's unlikely to harm long-term relations in any meaningful way. I bet it was an expensive disaster though
Click to expand...
I doubt that is the case.
 
Z-Z0 said:
Either way, the T239 Switch in 2023 dream seems to be dead.
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I really dont believe this either.

This is a fucked up situation like with Zelda WW and TP this year. Nobody seems to know even 50% of that what Nintendo has planned.

After all these years, while Nate is an insider, and a reliable one too, it has even for him become hard to get and verify infos.

So we should wait - at least we know from that factory uncle who predicted the Splatoon 3 OLED model correctly, that something new and big goes in production in January.
 
Lant_War said:
Saying this mere months after Splatoon 3 and Pokemon broke sales records is really funny. Even if Hardware sales were to massively slow down it's clear the Switch ecosystem is thriving and that's ultimately what matters.
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It's not funny at all, this is literally what happened with 3DS. Great hardware sales one year, the system completely dead the another. Stuck at 75m no matter how hard Nintendo pushed it with first party releases. Once the third party abandoned, 3DS was pronounced dead.

There's a peak for Switch hardware sales and we don't know how close we are to it right now. Nintendo does. And definitely will act accordingly.
 
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Raccoon said:
which part? them being annoyed or it not mattering?
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I think, as per my post you called the fun train, that the device was indeed "canned", but only insofar as they decided to go with Drake (and thus a new generation and not a refresh) instead. All those developers probably aren't upset, since now they probably have even more breathing room, and the same timeline.
 
9-Volt said:
It's not funny at all, this is literally what happened with 3DS. Great hardware sales one year, the system completely dead the another. Stuck at 75m no matter how hard Nintendo pushed it with first party releases. Once the third party abandoned, 3DS was pronounced dead.

There's a peak for Switch hardware sales and we don't know how close we are to it right now. Nintendo does. And definitely will act accordingly.
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at this point hardware sales are stupid and don't matter

it's the rock solid attach rate that matters

if zelda really is the 540p 15fps bumblefuck that I shitpost about maybe software will start to tremor
 
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Hosermess said:
Polygon did say something about updated devkits a couple months ago (but it was just about RAM I think? those posts have been self-NINJAD I think) and Nate did confirm he's heard similar stuff. Might be plausible.
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I’m sorry but what exactly does Polygon know? The information that they provided was pretty safe estimation based on what we have all said for several years. It was literally nothing extraordinary. And then lumping Nate with what he says corroborating information doesn’t give any confidence in the situation especially since we don’t apparently know what is truly going on. So it’s not even “take a a pinch of salt”, it’s just “don’t take it at all”
 
Z-Z0 said:
Either way, the T239 Switch in 2023 dream seems to be dead.
Click to expand...

It's pure copium, but I'm pretty sure that "the mid-gen refresh that was being planned for 2023 has been shelved" is the only hard news today. The stuff about Drake being something else entirely is logical but nobody knows anything about when that could be released.
 
with 2024 launch am curious about new and exclusive software. New Mario Kart is given but aside from that? I assume that 3D Mario is launching in holidays so am rulling this out too. Maybe 2D Mario too by EPD 10. I can't think of any other first party team that would have somethin ready even in first few months, maybe Animal crossing team.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m sorry but what exactly does Polygon know? The information that they provided was pretty safe estimation based on what we have all said for several years. It was literally nothing extraordinary. And then lumping Nate with what he says corroborating information doesn’t give any confidence in the situation especially since we don’t apparently know what is truly going on. So it’s not even “take a a pinch of salt”, it’s just “don’t take it at all”
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it's not very nice to say but polygon has smelled like bullshit to me from the beginning
 
Kenka said:
Yeah, if even the concept of the new console is unclear yet to Nate, then we can safely say it's still in the oven at a fundamental level and won't come out next year.

But putting Nate aside, I think DF's reaction today is even more telling. They simply don't have anything to communicate about the new Switch and that's a telltale sign that the device isn't anywhere ready. Hell, they even mentioned Nintendo being probably nervous (timestamp : 53:15). Things in the background might not go as smoothly as I have imagined.
Click to expand...

Very sensible take and assessment.

It’s quite clear from their comments that no new console is imminent to the best of their knowledge.
 
I do not believe these claims of a Switch Mid-Gen console upgrade as we would be in 6 years in the system life cycle in a few weeks. While I think Nintendo will produce games both for Switch and Switch "2" as PlayStation and Xbox first party have done for the past 2 years for their systems. The technology of Switch is pretty much outdated now like Wii was to PS3/XB360 many third parties are either skipping it or releasing their games on the Cloud. While Nintendo games still performed relatively well on the tech front minus this recent Pokemon and somewhat Bayonetta 3 they know partners need more than ever.

PlayStation 4 and Xbox One had their mid-gen console upgrade 3 to 4 years in. Fun Fact Xbox had a mid-gen console ready to go in 2016 however they cancelled that and started to work on an even more powerful machine to rival PS4/PS4 Pro. It would be dumb to make a "New" Nintendo Switch as it would not benefit devs at all as they would still need to make games on Older models which they definitely don't want.
 
Remember Software sells Hardware.

Maybe Nintendo doesn’t feel crossgen games like Zelda TOTK or Pikmin 4 would sell enough next switch for them and they are waiting for next MK or 3D Mario entries..?

BTW, I’m curious about what happen to those rumoured exclusive third party for next hw (apparently mid gen refresh, supposedly one of them is/was rdr2) that nate keep talking…they were cancelled too? Or just moved to next true hw?.

Too many questions, few answers.
 
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LukasManak22 said:
with 2024 launch am curious about new and exclusive software. New Mario Kart is given but aside from that? I assume that 3D Mario is launching in holidays so am rulling this out too. Maybe 2D Mario too by EPD 10. I can't think of any other first party team that would have somethin ready even in first few months, maybe Animal crossing team.
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If 2023 is off the table why suddenly are people saying 2024? There's nothing pointing to that either.


I suggest we all wait a few days before trying to fit this somewhat square peg into our round hole, I think the situation will probably become a bit clearer by then.
 
So where does this leave the factory leakers? IIRC didn't someone predict both of the OLED editions that came out this year and then predicted a 3rd model?

oh god they were talking about a TotK OLED
 
The simple truth is that while Nate always pushes against clickbait videos, what he is doing is quite similar. He's pushing clouded narratives Aon some leaks while not being able to work to journalistic standards, sharing proper findings and following the right trails. Which he then convolutes with "things can change".
The reality is, things change all the time and there are always a number of prototypes, often with selected partners as well - but you should not report on it if you are not sure what will happen.

The truth is also: next year we will get Zelda and Pikmin and some other great games and at some point there will be word on an actual next console, that will now maybe be a bit more different then same shell, other chip. And it could be something else then 8nm and more powerful then what we expect now as well. So the proper Switch 2 most people here are hoping for. Just try to enjoy what's actually out there in the meantime instead of chasing hopes and rumors from one guy who might not be a goof source (and I even think he's actually trying, but there's a reason a lot of journalists don't report what he does), at least if you're not in it just for fun.

I'm looking forward to Zelda now and I can't wait to see what hardware Drake might power in the future. But not in May.
 
Kenka said:
I would suggest we don't diverge too much from the topic at hand. Adding another hardware to the discussion will only further confuse everyone.
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I'm not going off-topic at all. I'm trying to reconcile the new info that has been introduced here - that there was a 2023 "mid-gen revision" that has been shelved, and that it is not Drake.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m sorry but what exactly does Polygon know? The information that they provided was pretty safe estimation based on what we have all said for several years. It was literally nothing extraordinary. And then lumping Nate with what he says corroborating information doesn’t give any confidence in the situation especially since we don’t apparently know what is truly going on. So it’s not even “take a a pinch of salt”, it’s just “don’t take it at all”
Click to expand...

Sodium levels at an all time high.

NateDrake said:
The only bit I'll comment on here: Yes, partners were briefed in things very recently.
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Skittzo said:
If 2023 is off the table why suddenly are people saying 2024? There's nothing pointing to that either.


I suggest we all wait a few days before trying to fit this somewhat square peg into our round hole, I think the situation will probably become a bit clearer by then.
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I still haven't seen anything compelling saying Drake in 2023 is off the table.
 
Serif said:
I'm not going off-topic at all. I'm trying to reconcile the new info that has been introduced here - that there was a 2023 "mid-gen revision" that has been shelved, and that it is not Drake.
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Its just impossible to me to reconcile that there was an a78/ dlss hardware ever in development, that wasn't using Drake.
 
Raccoon said:
there is no way they push 3D Mario out the door when they have to sell hardware the year after
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Yup Nintendo will have to start building up exclusive software for the Next hardware if this is a traditional transition. Lets just hope the final year of Switch is better than Gamecube(2006), Wii(2012), and Wii U's (2016).
 
YolkFolk said:
Very sensible take and assessment.

It’s quite clear from their comments that no new console is imminent to the best of their knowledge.
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Thanks.
the_marmolade said:
I do not believe these claims of a Switch Mid-Gen console upgrade as we would be in 6 years in the system life cycle in a few weeks. While I think Nintendo will produce games both for Switch and Switch "2" as PlayStation and Xbox first party have done for the past 2 years for their systems. The technology of Switch is pretty much outdated now like Wii was to PS3/XB360 many third parties are either skipping it or releasing their games on the Cloud. While Nintendo games still performed relatively well on the tech front minus this recent Pokemon and somewhat Bayonetta 3 they know partners need more than ever.
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I am not defending Nate by he didn't mention the release window of a possibly canceled Switch Pro.

He just said that there might have been one at some point.
 
I don't know why people think Nintendo needs to release a system because of Zelda ToTK and Pikmin 4. This is the company that release Skyword Sword a year before Wii U probably going to release MP4 either before or along with Switch "2".
 
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