BlackTangMaster
Piranha Plant
Isn't it Erista?
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
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Isn't it Erista?
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
This one's Mariko.
BlackTangMaster
Piranha Plant
Yes it is indeed Mariko as seen of XC3 clocks on his channel.
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This is genuinely what I've believed ever since I began following this thread on Era. TX1 units will remain in production for years after Super Switch Ultra & Knuckles is out as an entry-level option, and people who want the big new shiny can have the big new shiny.
And outlets like IGN will finally be able to shut up for a year or so.
Wait'll you see the threads comparing him to Jim Varney.
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Yeah that reminds me, the whole John and Nate discussion about the TX1 lasting forever- they don't make the TX1 anymore I believe. Mariko is TX1+.
So they're clearly talking about support for it, which again is a very non-controversial thing to say.
So they're clearly talking about support for it, which again is a very non-controversial thing to say.
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D
Deleted member 887
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I don't think that is exactly true? Perhaps you can correct me
My understand is that WGPs were only introduced in RDNA, and that they are a 2CU pair + the tessellation engine. This corresponds to a Texture Processing Cluster on Nvidia, which is a 2SM pair + the tessellation hardware.
Then at a higher level, AMD organizes the WGPs into Shader Engines with shared cache and a rasterizer. Nvidia does the same thing and calls them a Graphics Processing Cluster.
If you compare WGP:TPC, it is exactly the same as the CU:SM comparison, because there are always 2 compute units for each tessellation engine on both systems. Comparing Shader Engines to GPCs gets a little finicky, because SEs have "up to" 10 WGPs and GPCs have "up to" 8 TPCs. But basically this gets you right back to comparing CU:SM.
If you go by the raw CUDA/shader cores, that might get you a different value? The number of shaders per compute unit varies across generations and across arches. I am not immediately convinced it gets you more accurate numbers to go by that, but maybe it does?
The thinking with CU/SM was that these are the basic computational units, which is why OpenCl exactly maps them to the number of compute kernels available. Got to a much higher architectural level and you start to see things that map 1:1 with the entire GPU, regardless of it's size, go lower, and you're ignoring the scheduling architecture and the fixed function blocks that feed the shader units.
But I've got the spreadsheets built, we can see what happens if I sub in the raw numbers of shader units.
OP
OP
Apple, Nvidia to be first customers of TSMC Arizona chip plant
Biden and top tech executives to attend equipment move-in event on Tuesday
asia.nikkei.com
Sol
Moblin
Damn, 12 GB of RAM? Really hope that's true. That means about ~10 GB would be available to devs.
I think that's the amount this console needs to keep getting ports in the years ahead. The I/O speed won't be nearly as fast as the PS5 or Series S|X, so having 10 instead of 8 GB of RAM can kind of help offset the slower storage speeds since they can just keep more data sitting in RAM.
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I’ll DM you.
Look over there
Bob-omb
To remind readers, given that timeframe, that particular plant should be N5 family. So, potentially maybe some Lovelace cards end up getting Made in Eagleland.Apple, Nvidia to be first customers of TSMC Arizona chip plant
Biden and top tech executives to attend equipment move-in event on Tuesday
(and I may have stated this before, but one of the bonus reasons I'd like Drake to be on 4N would be to potentially have one Made in Eagleland)
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If it has 12, it’ll age more gracefully even for Nintendo
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TonyBaduy
Moblin
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He meant Q2123...calender or fiscal Q2 '23?
please be calender
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Between this and observations regarding R&D expenditure patterns... things are looking up. I know I'm waiting for next quarter's financial results; (assuming new hardware isn't announced by then) if R&D spend takes a downward turn, we're for sure getting new hardware in 2023.Before the thread gets doomier and gloomier, allow me to come out of lurking to give an update on the inventory level:
I had been waiting for Nintendo IR to release the biannual inventory data to no avail, therefore I finally took a look at their Japanese page and it's there all along—not sure why they don't want to publish this in English. Regardless, from March to September, the stockpile of raw materials gained further 34,298 million yen (251 million USD), to the total of 142,110 million yen (1.04 billion USD).
(Unit: 1 million yen)
Compared to a year ago (09/2021), the inventory of raw materials grew 48.1%, on top of an already elevated level. Didn't they forecast the hardware sales to decline by 9.8% this fiscal year to 18 million units? Actually, their inventory of finished goods did decreased by 11.7% from last year, which tracks the forecasted decline, therefore I don't know how Nintendo can explain away the growth of raw materials—while they prepare to sell less hardware.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Oh.. well I'm definitely not expecting CPU to be that high in frequency personally anyway. Hoping 1.5-1.7.Yes, at frequencies ≤ 1.8 GHz.
But at frequencies > 1.8 GHz, Samsung's 5LPE process node is ~20% to ~25% less power efficient compared to TSMC's N7/N7P process node.
Geekerwan's review suggests the Cortex-A77 on the Snapdragon 865 is a bit more performant and power efficient compared to the Cortex-A78 on the Snapdragon 888.
(I speculate the Cortex-A78 on TSMC's N6 process node lies between the Cortex-A77 on TSMC's N7P process node and the Cortex-A78 on TSMC's N5 process node.)
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"12GB RAM" pass along what you smoking. All this spec and release date talk but various posters while gaming sites and prolific journalists have yet to say a word about the next Nintendo console. It's okay to be excited about the next Nintendo hardware but you lot going to be frustrated with a lot of stuff that turns out wrong here look at the other place's next-gen speculation thread a few years ago and how that turned out.
Alovon11
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To be perfectly fair, we actually know a fair bit about this hardware this time around thanks to NVIDIA getting hacked (and themselves uploading data on it in the Linux Kernel)
but yeah, RAM Config, Clock speeds, and storage used, those are TBD.
What we do absolutely know at this point is
- The CPU
- 99% likely to be Cortex A78C as the Linux Kernel had T239/Drake in it and specified a 8-core 1 Cluster CPU
- The other options for 8-Core 1 Cluster ARM CPUs are all stronger than A78C XD
- The GPU
- 12SMs Ampere maybe with Orin's Optical Flow Accelerator
- 1536 CUDA Cores (More shaders than Series S)
- 12 RT cores
- 48 Tensor Cores
- The OFA is what allows the RTX 4000 cards to do DLSS Frame Generation, and Orin's OFA is distinct from Ampere's but is unknown in relation to Lovelace's
- So don't take this as confirmation that it can use DLSS-FG, but as it may be able to use it
- Combo due to the NVIDIA Hack done by LAPSUS$ earlier in the year and some Github Driver stuff that references T239 (Drake) and T234 (Orin)
- 12SMs Ampere maybe with Orin's Optical Flow Accelerator
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Tbh, I really shouldn't be commenting in here as I don't really care how powerful the next system just care about BC and Framerate as Im fortunate enough to have a powerful PC and PS5/XSX. I just don't want to see NX speculation all over again that was a very miserable arc where a bunch of baloney was said (x86 Hardware, powerful as PS4).
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
We'll likely get either 8 or 12 GB or RAM due to the current configurations of LPDDR5 RAM. I don't think there is anything yet for 10GB RAM configurations, but iirc there are 4GB, 6 GB and 8GB configurations. Nintendo doesn't usually skimp on RAM and often goes beyond for their new consoles that are supposed to be rivaling last gen, so 12GB is actually feasible/plausible.
8GB is the absolute bare minimum. They could have 1GB for OS again or even 2, and have more for games, but that would give it a barebones OS with limited features again. I'm hoping 12
It's fine to be cautious and keep expectations in check, but this is a speculation thread for a reason. We are here to have fun along the way.
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TheGreatMightyPoo
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If they weren't the same chip, they wouldn't have the same name. If any one was gonna be a cut down version, I'd be binned chips while Nintendo gets the full version
SiG
Chain Chomp
Please read the OP for rules and information with regards to where most of the speculation is coming from. If you don't want to participate and only wish to give negative views, then this is NOT the thread for you.
Hartmann
Piranha Plant
Orin, the T234, has various configurations of SoC.
Clock speed configurations, sure.
Look over there
Bob-omb
Speaking of ram, just checked Samsung's LPDDR5X page since I had not done so in several months. I've noticed the addition of one more module; 6 GB 64-bit. (and they're still all 7500 MT/s; not surprising as I now don't expect full speed 5X before the end of this year)
And I can't stop being amazed at the range of densities planned for LPDDR5X.
Normalizing at a per 32-bit* rate basis, Samsung's catalog offers 3 GB, 4 GB, 6 GB, 8 GB, and 16 GB. And outside of Samsung's page, the Grace superchip should max out at 512 GB with a 512-bit bus, thus implying what would normalize to 32 GB per 32-bit.
*why did I pick 32-bit? For easy comparison to GDDR. GDDR6 comes in 32-bit chips at 1 GB or 2 GB each. And I think that I read somewhere tonight on Techpowerup that GDDR7 should 'double' the density, so presumably 2 GB or 4 GB, though I don't recall their cited source mentioning density. Granted, this is less relevant to Nintendo specifically and more relevant to say, potential directions for Sony and MS to go in for memory in the future.
Edit: boy, am I veering away from Nintendo. But since I'm on this train of thought...
Samsung's memory roadmap that was provided at its Tech Day this past October:
I'm sitting here thinking that there is a potential timeline where the big set top boxes evolve in a particular direction for which a massive increase in raw bandwidth isn't really necessary (or, at least not as important relative to ram quantity). If the succeeding generation to PS5/X Series launches in like 2029 or 2030, I'm picturing a theoretical... 256-bit or 320-bit LPDDR6X. I'm assuming ~17,066 MT/s (full speed LPDDR5 is 6,400 MT/s, then LPDDR6 should double that to 12,800 MT/s, then multiply that by 4/3). For comparison, the GDDR6 chips that the PS5/X Series use are 14,000 MT/s. And I think that it's very likely for LPDDR6/6X to trounce GDDR7 in density.
Orrr they continue on the same path and we're looking at GDDR7.
But now that 12 GB at 128-bit is possible, my thinking of 'assume a quantity that lines up with 5X for future silent transition' is less insane than before!
And I can't stop being amazed at the range of densities planned for LPDDR5X.
Normalizing at a per 32-bit* rate basis, Samsung's catalog offers 3 GB, 4 GB, 6 GB, 8 GB, and 16 GB. And outside of Samsung's page, the Grace superchip should max out at 512 GB with a 512-bit bus, thus implying what would normalize to 32 GB per 32-bit.
*why did I pick 32-bit? For easy comparison to GDDR. GDDR6 comes in 32-bit chips at 1 GB or 2 GB each. And I think that I read somewhere tonight on Techpowerup that GDDR7 should 'double' the density, so presumably 2 GB or 4 GB, though I don't recall their cited source mentioning density. Granted, this is less relevant to Nintendo specifically and more relevant to say, potential directions for Sony and MS to go in for memory in the future.
Edit: boy, am I veering away from Nintendo. But since I'm on this train of thought...
Samsung's memory roadmap that was provided at its Tech Day this past October:
I'm sitting here thinking that there is a potential timeline where the big set top boxes evolve in a particular direction for which a massive increase in raw bandwidth isn't really necessary (or, at least not as important relative to ram quantity). If the succeeding generation to PS5/X Series launches in like 2029 or 2030, I'm picturing a theoretical... 256-bit or 320-bit LPDDR6X. I'm assuming ~17,066 MT/s (full speed LPDDR5 is 6,400 MT/s, then LPDDR6 should double that to 12,800 MT/s, then multiply that by 4/3). For comparison, the GDDR6 chips that the PS5/X Series use are 14,000 MT/s. And I think that it's very likely for LPDDR6/6X to trounce GDDR7 in density.
Orrr they continue on the same path and we're looking at GDDR7.
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LiC
Member
NX speculation was mostly a bunch of baseless nonsense and not really worth looking at retrospectively, but I would say the majority of rumors were actually coming down on the side where the system, or at least its rumored portable component, was supposedly weaker than it ended up being. The powerful x86 home console thing was pretty much specifically one YouTuber and his fanboys. Then after the Switch was announced but before the specs were confirmed, there was a lot of argument about which Tegra chip would be used and assertions that it had to use the then-cutting edge Pascal because otherwise it would be garbage, and that was also all dumb, but still more along the lines of doomposting than overhyping.
I don't for one minute believe random forum posters who claim to know hardware information, but the rest of your post is way off base. First, "gaming sites and prolific journalists" have said lots of words about the next Nintendo console; the most prolific journalist on the subject of Nintendo hardware said it would be powered by a new Nvidia chip and use DLSS to output 4K graphics, and that he'd heard from a dozen developers who were planning to release games for it around or after the end of 2022. Second, we don't need "gaming sites and prolific journalists" to tell us things that anyone can read for themselves in publicly available source code files intended to run on the hardware in question.
As for being frustrated because things are going to turn out to be wrong, (a) I'd like a turn with your crystal ball, and (b) I'm pretty sure everyone here is well aware of the possibility of expectations not being met considering hardly a page goes by without someone popping in to give a reminder about that, on top of posters like myself -- the one who posted the majority of the initial leaked specs discussed here -- saying exactly that every time there was something new to talk about.
Im taking him with teaspoons of salt.
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as a part time bullshit artist myself I like to think I know it when I see it and yeah, I think I see it
Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
I've expressed a quiet confidence in 16GB in the past... I still feel it's a very real possibility, and more so than the first time I said it. Not only for reasons posted in this thread, but because while we have an idea of what the next platform will have, this part remains more uncertain, relative to the other information available. I think we can rule out the 8GB. 12GB would be most welcome, but there is a very good case for the 16GB, which can surely be examined, made, heard, and, (one hopes), heeded. There is also history across all platform hosts which shows that going with more has resulted in greater support from publishers, and platform success.
I dont think we can rule out anything, because we have no reliable sources saying anything about memory (sorry polygon).
AxkilAvenger
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How was Polygon debunked? What happened?
Polygon was never debunked.
D
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Can someone dig up the post explaining why 12GB is the most likely memory configuration? It was posted awhile back. I remember it had to do with the availability configurations to the manufacturers that 12GB was the most likely set-up, especially for potential cost reasons as 4GB memory configurations (4GB x 2 to 8GB) are not available or exist, and that would likely be more expensive as a result to create a custom memory configuration.
I remember that is a theme of costs
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
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Polygon was never debunked, but Polygon was also never really bunked in the first place.
His story seems reasonable enough but we have no real reason to believe it. No reason to doubt it either IMO but with no real proof or corroboration it's best to take it with a healthy amount of salt.
His story seems reasonable enough but we have no real reason to believe it. No reason to doubt it either IMO but with no real proof or corroboration it's best to take it with a healthy amount of salt.
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
Was Polygon the same person who said his friends only told him things because they thought his reactions were funny? I might be confused with someone else but his old account was deleted so it's difficult to check.
6GB chips were the smallest you could get at the time that would fit the Switch. Now 4GB chips exist that could work, putting 8GB on the table
bixente
Tingle
He did have a friend he spoke to. And got some info from. Last time it was at the rodeo iirc.
Hard to debunk. In the hypothesis it's all bullshit:
What they say is mostly in line with the hard piece of info we have, plus a few educated speculations here and there. The rdr2 thing has been a rumor for a while, so it's worth throwing for added credibility. And the H1 2023 release window could be guesswork based on the guesswork of other people, which was repeated enough to become dogma.
And for the latter, if it doesn't happen during H1, one can always use the get out of jail free card "plans have changed". If the specs are different on some aspects, even better; "plans have changed because specs were modified late. What I said was true at the moment I've said it."
My opinion is that the machine discussed here exists and it's most likely what we'll get as a successor, though things like ram remain up in the air.
I also believe that having not heard of a new Mario, and having Mario Kart content releasing until the end of the year 2023, points to a release of the new machine in 2024 though I can see a scenario where it would release end of 2023.
I also believe that the current Switch will be perfectly fine in 2023 with a new Zelda, Fire Emblem, Pikmin, and long legged games such as Splatoon. And Nintendo knows it.
MusicProposition
Bob-omb
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Lol I just remembered the person that got the Splatoon OLED model right (even the date) and said that the next Switch would be revealed two months later. The better part of a rumor never happens
I disagree this gives it any more credibility.
If you were making up a rumour, woudnt you base it on rumours that were already floating around? It would make people more inclined to believe it, due to confirmation bias.
MusicProposition
Bob-omb
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I think there are some reasons to be skeptical about the new Switch in 2023 and you're naming many of them. However the Mario Kart and Splatoon DLC could also be beneficial for new hardware. The thing is, Switch is super successful and I'm sure they want to prolong it as long as possible ("We're halfway through the Switch's life"), with a much better chipset but the same platform/overall design/name etc. To introduce this new hardware, its actually a good thing to have ongoing games. It's as exciting as a new release for people who buy the Switch "Pro" knowing they're right in the middle of games getting new content. I'm not saying that this is why new hardware will be coming, just that's its not an argument AGAINST it.
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