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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

8nm isn’t even on the list 💀
But 10 nm** is listed, and everyone (here) knows Samsung's 8 nm** process node is Samsung's 10 nm** process node on steroids. ☠️
** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies

Edit: I'm apparently blind. ☠️

The only remaining win is the RT cores, but even there one of the supposed improvements of the new RT cores is really just rebranding the larger L2 cache. Ampere's RT cores are already well ahead of what is offered in RDNA3, and RT on Drake is going to be limited by Drake's size well before it's limited by the quality of the RT cores themselves.
The Ada Lovelace whitepaper mentions that Ada Lovelace's RT cores feature dedicated hardware units called the Opacity Micromap Engine and the Displaced MicroMesh Engine, which are not present on Ampere's RT cores (pp. 9 & 15).
 
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The Ada Lovelace whitepaper mentions that Ada Lovelace's RT cores feature dedicated hardware units called the Opacity Micromap Engine and the Displaced MicroMesh Engine, which are not present on Ampere's RT cores (pp. 9 & 15).
Oh absolutely. The RT cores in Ada are a definite improvement - the one definite win that Drake might be missing out on.
 
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Wasn’t it in the Nvidia docs that it has improved cache structure?
I’m pretty sure that the improved cache structure is having more levels of cache here which can mean two things:

Drake has a SLC that allows for better communication between the components of the SoC (mandatory for coherency in modern ARM SOCs). Extra cache is an extra level.


Or it doesn’t and does not have coherency. ARM based processors gained coherency ability when they started to be able to have a 4th level of cache. This also helps the GPU to a degree. The SLC has a Point of Coherency, and if they used ARM’s CoreLink IP, the SLC becomes mandatory.


The size is dependent.


ARM=/= x86 for coherency, it’s done in this way…. For reasons…


Nvidia did manage to do something with Xavier but it resulted in a bottlenecked scenario.
DLSS 3 finally puts it to real use in games, but DLSS 3 isn't a win on Drake for previously discussed reasons.
I wouldn’t shoot this down just yet. Trust me 🤭.

Nvidia tends to have their own motives….
But 10 nm** is listed, and everyone (here) knows Samsung's 8 nm** process node is Samsung's 10 nm** process node on steroids. ☠️
** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
It went from 16nm to 7nm though? It doesn’t show 10nm





The Mesh and Opacity RT features would have been really nice to have, would have helped with geometry and RT. I wonder if it’s possible to add it since it’s just added to the RT core…. and those are off to the side.
 
I'm blind. ☠️
I mean, same 😭, when I don’t have my glasses it’s hard to… function. I just take longer to focus.



On other related theoretical, I wonder if the Portal Switch game is actually a sort of tease on a portal RTX demo for Drake for developers to look at (not for us to play). Done by the same studio.
 
Orin Nano 8GB, and Orin NX 8GB.

Orin Nano in general is an interesting datapoint for Drake. It clocks memory at 2133MHz, is substantially more efficient than the AGX devkit flashed to "nano mode", is quite a bit smaller than Drake, but still is a little power hungry for the Switch.

I think there is time between February and August for Hovi to decide to go with fewer SMs enabled, and higher clocks, for either yield or battery life reasons. If Orin Nano 8GB topped out at 10W I'd think, okay, maybe there are enough wins somewhere to go with the full 12, or to at least shoot for 12 then pull back to 8.

But Nano's 8SMs are at only 640Mhz, and only runs 6 CPUs at 1.5Ghz, and has the smallest memory config I can imagine for Drake (8GB@2133Mhz), and still hits 15W. It's still too power hungry, but it's perf/power ratio is actually higher than Jensen said it would be in 2019, so it doesn't feel like that should have surprised anyone.

I think the burden of proof that Drake is not on the same process node as Orin - and in fact, the entire Ampere line - is pretty high, but that really feels like the nail in the Samsung 8nm coffin.
considering who Drake was designed for, I can't imagine yield/battery issues. Orin already existed and they have extensive simulations on 8nm. if it couldn't run at their intended target, I can't help but feel there's something other than the node at play
 
considering who Drake was designed for, I can't imagine yield/battery issues. Orin already existed and they have extensive simulations on 8nm. if it couldn't run at their intended target, I can't help but feel there's something other than the node at play
That's my thing, the 12SM decision had to have been made knowing very close to final power numbers. I am fully ready to accept that maybe Nintendo shot for 12, and at the last minute had to pull down to 10. But Nano's power consumption is so high at 8, or even 4 that it is inconceivable to me they would try 12 unless they knew exactly what they were doing.

I keep coming back to this as a circle I can't figure out how to square.
 
By the time they release this thing it will already be severely outdated if Nintendo keeps milking the current one to the bone.

Don't worry, visuals are really reaching a point of diminishing returns and 4 years old Red Dead Redemption 2 is still, in my opinion, the most impressive game there is. The machine discussed here will be fine even in 2024, especially in a world where the Serie S would receive games until 2028-29.
 
That's my thing, the 12SM decision had to have been made knowing very close to final power numbers. I am fully ready to accept that maybe Nintendo shot for 12, and at the last minute had to pull down to 10. But Nano's power consumption is so high at 8, or even 4 that it is inconceivable to me they would try 12 unless they knew exactly what they were doing.

I keep coming back to this as a circle I can't figure out how to square.
the only other option for 8nm is that they decided to forgo battery life

Are we back to hype?
depends on how well Drake runs Fartknife with RT
 
My guy, it’s already using a CPU that will be 3 gens behind and a GPU that is a whole gen behind.


Nintendo really don’t care.


Like are people really surprised that the penny pinching company that milked the GAMECUBE hardware from 2001 all the way till 2017, with the final console using it had a GPU from 2008, and also milked the Wii to the ground wouldn’t do the same card again? They did it before and will do it again.
So what's the top of the line arm mobile chip with GPU specs?not steamdeck I assume
 
So what's the top of the line arm mobile chip with GPU specs?not steamdeck I assume
Mediatek's Dimensity 9200 with an Immortalis gpu, probably
Van Gogh on the Steam Deck is a x86-64 APU, not an Arm SoC.

But the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 with the Adreno 740* GPU is definitely considered a flagship Arm SoC equipped with a flagship GPU.

* → Qualcomm officially calls the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2's GPU the Adreno™ GPU. But since one of the most reliable persons with respect to rumours on Arm based SoCs for Android smartphones calls the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2's GPU the Adreno 740, that name's going to be used. (Why did Qualcomm decide to name the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2's GPU the Adreno™ GPU? Besides my speculation that Qualcomm's trying too hard to be like a lifestyle company like Apple, I have no idea.)
 
So what's the top of the line arm mobile chip with GPU specs?not steamdeck I assume
Steam deck doesn’t use ARM, it uses x86 like the PS5, PS4, XBox One, XBox Series Consoles and general PC market.


The top of the line depends on what you look for, but it’s arguably three: Mediatek 9200, Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 and the Apple A16 Bionic.


Though Apple does have the M series even if a gen behind, but they are more powerful than the phones.


And nVidia has Tegra ORIN but that’s for automotive purposes. And it’s the same generation as Drake.
 
Doesn't these CPUs throttle at slightly prolonged plays?
Yes, but Apple’s maintains closer to the higher target than the competitors. Usually.


SD8G2 remains to be seen but it is supposed to remain closer to the higher end as per last gen getting the same improvement.


9200 idk.
 
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That's my thing, the 12SM decision had to have been made knowing very close to final power numbers. I am fully ready to accept that maybe Nintendo shot for 12, and at the last minute had to pull down to 10. But Nano's power consumption is so high at 8, or even 4 that it is inconceivable to me they would try 12 unless they knew exactly what they were doing.

I keep coming back to this as a circle I can't figure out how to square.

If they really went with 12, why do you think they made the decision? 8 gaming and 4 OS? That would imply a super big step up in what the OS needs/does.
 
If they really went with 12, why do you think they made the decision? 8 gaming and 4 OS? That would imply a super big step up in what the OS needs/does.
The OS runs entirely on the CPU, not the GPU. So I doubt Nintendo's and Nvidia's decision to have 12 SMs on Drake's GPU has anything to do with the OS.
 
If they really went with 12, why do you think they made the decision? 8 gaming and 4 OS? That would imply a super big step up in what the OS needs/does.
It's 8 CPUs. 12 is the number of "streaming multiprocessors" which a unit inside the GPU. AMD has a similar component called a Compute Unit, and by way of comparison, the Xbox One also had 12. For a mobile device, that is very large
 
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If they really went with 12, why do you think they made the decision? 8 gaming and 4 OS? That would imply a super big step up in what the OS needs/does.
And to answer your question more generally, I strongly suspect that 8th gen performance - the PS4 and the Xbox One - was the target performance threshold. The PS4 Pro need a GPU 2x the size of the base PS4 to get to 4k. DLSS means that a Nintendo console could do it with a GPU ~1.1-1.2x the size.

Nintendo doesn't much look to the other console makers when it comes to power, but they also know they kinda blew the HD transition, and have stated they don't want to do the same thing for 4k. They've also got a console with solid 3rd party support at a time when the previous generation of Sony/MS consoles is slated to have solid support for at least another two years. And their own consoles haven't had a traditional 4x-6x perf increase gen-on-gen since the Gamecube, and second party games (Pokemon, Bayonetta) are struggling.

Getting somewhere in the range of the last gen base consoles, and slathering DLSS on top ticks all these boxes. It's a nice big leap for first party, it puts you in the same league as Sony and MS's bottom offering for multiplats for at least a couple of years, and it is a proven base level of power for your first 4k machine, while using DLSS to keep your electricity usage in check.

12SMs puts you very comfortably in that sweet spot, at clock speeds that are pretty conventional. 8 CPUs, 12 SMs, and 8GB of RAM also happens to give you a design that looks, at a high level, exactly like the Xbox One (8 CPUs, 12CUs, and 8 GB). Where ever Nintendo winds up landing, starting at that point and then seeing what has to give from a electricity perspective seems like a pretty reasonable strategy
 
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Are we back to hype?
I won't be getting this thing any time soon, but the hype is an intensifying heartbeat. The hype is life.

(I haven't been in this thread much, but I had the distinct impression the hype was constant.)

the most interesting question to me is whether the OLED model will be discontinued or if it will ascend to older brother's place in the aforementioned black friday bundle
I always assumed the OLED model would become the new "base" model.

Hello everyone. I’m a long time lurker since the gaf days and have only now registered, inspired by a marvelous dream. As you know, in the Middle Ages some dreams were accorded the status of portents, and I am confident that this dream is a true prognostication.

Unless this augury was divined by a legitimate haruspex through haruspicy, I'm not buying it.
 
My guy, it’s already using a CPU that will be 3 gens behind and a GPU that is a whole gen behind.


Nintendo really don’t care.


Like are people really surprised that the penny pinching company that milked the GAMECUBE hardware from 2001 all the way till 2017, with the final console using it had a GPU from 2008, and also milked the Wii to the ground wouldn’t do the same card again? They did it before and will do it again.
Yeah but devs started making games for it in 2019/2020. Was it outdated back then?
 
To remind readers, given that timeframe, that particular plant should be N5 family. So, potentially maybe some Lovelace cards end up getting Made in Eagleland.
(and I may have stated this before, but one of the bonus reasons I'd like Drake to be on 4N would be to potentially have one Made in Eagleland)
N4! And 2026 for a 3nm plant.

That’s exciting.
 
Yeah but devs started making games for it in 2019/2020. Was it outdated back then?
It didn’t even exist as hardware, they weren’t even making games for that hardware. It wasn’t an actual physical unit.


If they really went with 12, why do you think they made the decision? 8 gaming and 4 OS? That would imply a super big step up in what the OS needs/does.
Do you mean the RAM? CPU or the GPU? This post can funnily be read in more ways than one!

The OS would be a single core or a cluster of little cores, but it doesn’t seem like T239 has little cores, so in this case it would be a (much better) performance core doing it.

The GPU doesn’t matter so much in this case.

If they had 12GB of RAM though… 10-10.5 or 10.75GB for games and the rest to the OS, it can allow for better navigation. the OS I presume will remain lean.


Though, Nintendo has managed to offer a robust UI with less before, so who knows how it’ll go? 1GB for the Wii U but it was half of the memory, but it was feature rich. The 3DS also had a lot of features with so few.

I don’t think they need 4 whole GB for an OS unless it’s super bloated for reasons not known to us.
 
In light of the COD news, how convenient it would be to have a COD game as a launch title for the next Switch model, wouldn't it?
There is no COD2023, next year is Warzone 2 + MW2 Big Expansion.

Nintendo can work hard to get day 1 versions of Warzone 2 and MW2 Complete Edition.

That would be around their next HW launch window. Getting COD in their first year would be big news, from marketing and sales, for west players.

In addition, maybe they can port current OG MW remasters or future ones like MW3 or COD1/2.
 
It didn’t even exist as hardware, they weren’t even making games for that hardware. It wasn’t an actual physical unit.
Regardless of whether or not devs were making games for virtual, physical, final, or non-final hardware, my question still stands:

Do you believe Drake, as we currently know it, was outdated in the 2019-2020 timeframe?
 
Regardless of whether or not devs were making games for virtual, physical, final, or non-final hardware, my question still stands:

Do you believe Drake, as we currently know it, was outdated in the 2019-2020 timeframe?
Based on what we know - which is that Drake is a chip used in the internals of a Switch-like device - then no, it wasn't outdated in 2019. I was in fact cutting-edge. What we don't know about it is what compromise will be done at the clock level to save on battery life and heat dissipation, but the tech itself is absolutely top-class.
 
Regardless of whether or not devs were making games for virtual, physical, final, or non-final hardware, my question still stands:

Do you believe Drake, as we currently know it, was outdated in the 2019-2020 timeframe?
Because of the limiting premise placed, this is a ridiculous question I hope you know that.

If you want me to give you an answer, yes Drake a chip that wasn’t even taped out, nor existed was outdated years before it even hit they market when the developers started making games for it.

And this only applies to Nintendo. No one else. It isn’t using anything of current year and it is using things of previous year, in which the current year and thing that the previous thing of the previous year already has a successor to, thus henceforth making the previous thing outdated and the current thing bleeding edge thing. For thing to be outdated, it has to have some thing that directly succeeds it. For thing to not be directly outdated it has to be the last of its kind. However, that thing is outdated by anyone who can produce a thing that is better and newer than the older thing in question. By mandate of what “outdated” even means.



Do you see how ridiculous the answer I can give is?
 
My guy, it’s already using a CPU that will be 3 gens behind and a GPU that is a whole gen behind.


Nintendo really don’t care.


Like are people really surprised that the penny pinching company that milked the GAMECUBE hardware from 2001 all the way till 2017, with the final console using it had a GPU from 2008, and also milked the Wii to the ground wouldn’t do the same card again? They did it before and will do it again.
We all know Nintendos history in the powerpc era, but in the Switch (or should I say Nvidia)) era I don’t feel your criticism is warranted.

While the tx1 wasn’t the most up to date soc in 2017, it was still reasonably modern in terms of gpu. A huge step in the right direction from the Wii U.

And while Drake doesn’t have the latest architecture, ampere is still very modern in terms of tech and featureset, and the configuration in terms of core counts is pretty much maxed out in that form factor.
 
Because of the limiting premise placed, this is a ridiculous question I hope you know that.

If you want me to give you an answer, yes Drake a chip that wasn’t even taped out, nor existed was outdated years before it even hit they market when the developers started making games for it.

And this only applies to Nintendo. No one else. It isn’t using anything of current year and it is using things of previous year, in which the current year and thing that the previous thing of the previous year already has a successor to, thus henceforth making the previous thing outdated and the current thing bleeding edge thing. For thing to be outdated, it has to have some thing that directly succeeds it. For thing to not be directly outdated it has to be the last of its kind. However, that thing is outdated by anyone who can produce a thing that is better and newer than the older thing in question. By mandate of what “outdated” even means.



Do you see how ridiculous the answer I can give is?
@Kenka answered the question just fine.

And since your answer is yes, can I ask why you believe it only applies to Nintendo? What about previous consoles? Was every previous Nintendo console outdated when it released and if so, compared to what? What about the RAM? As I understand, LPDDR5X is only just about the become available, so “just” having LPDDR5 would make it have at least one current piece of hardware, no?

And from my perspective, “outdated” merely means obsolete no longer relevant. Will a device that will be close in power to the Steam Deck with better AI and RT hardware be considered outdated? Additionally, how can a product that requires at least a year to be put together and 2 years of dev feedback ever release with “up to date” or current hardware by your definition? Isn’t that kind of impossible or an unfair expectation?

edit: And so according to you, if I'm understanding correctly, things are either "outdated" or "bleeding edge"? I would think it would be more of a slider, where things are current or recent or old before being relegated to the different ends of the tech spectrum. And calling back to hardware, I seem to be under the impression that the current HD twins are equivalent in power to an RTX 2070 Super? Meanwhile, the 3080 had just released a few months prior, thus making those two consoles outdated? And the PS5 doesn't and didn't have the full RDNA2 feature set, so that would make it outdated, correct?

But if we go to the Switch and define it as a thing...well there isn't anything like it on the market and there likely won't be especially when Drake releases. It is the first and last "thing"of its kind, so it would seem to be not "directly outdated". And it will get pretty close or even surpass Steam Deck (which uses 7nm technology, again releasing on an outdated node- as 5nm was on the market at the time) even before DLSS. But I've also read that the RT performance is much better on Ampere compared to what's in the current consoles & SD and that Drake will actually have AI accelerated hw with its Tensor cores, so won't it be ahead, thus outdating the others on that front?

And I don’t find your answer ridiculous at all. I think I hold a different interpretation of the term “outdated” is all.

And as a final question, what console has ever released with “current” hardware?
 
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@Polygon Can you tell us which Publisher does know the Q2 23 Timeframe for sure?


@All: Anybody can tell me what happened the last days/weeks?

He's alluding to Rockstar, he's not giving proof apart from "a friend of a friend" and it should be considered as light entertainment.

Apart from that, Nate mentioned that he has some unverified information on Switch Pro that is "substantial" but he does not want to share more information (mainly due to it being not verified), which led into a lot of doomposting and reading between the lines.

Tomorrow we might get an unfounded and mistranslated rumor from a Chinese message board and we will all believe production has already started and the reveal is imminent.

So, nothing happened really.
 
@Polygon Can you tell us which Publisher does know the Q2 23 Timeframe for sure?


@All: Anybody can tell me what happened the last days/weeks?
Nothing of relevance happened. NateDrake has had information about the successor for some time now but hasn't been able to double-check the information yet.

Aside from that, we have patents proving that Nintendo is researching the area of machine-learned upscaling. Also, Microsoft have announced today that the Call of Duty franchise will come to "Nintendo" without explicitely mentioned the Switch, which tends to indicate that they are refering to Drake.

We have had ne leaks of significance since the Summer. A Chinese 'uncle' foretold the production of a Splatoon 3 OLED Switch model, which proved to be true but he was wrong about other claims.
 
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I am personally not going to start freaking out until Early Feb after Nintendo has their nine month earnings and still refuse to talk about a new system, if its not releasing in May alongside TOTK then that system is not releasing that year
 
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