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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Bosintang said:
Hard to debunk. In the hypothesis it's all bullshit:
What they say is mostly in line with the hard piece of info we have, plus a few educated speculations here and there. The rdr2 thing has been a rumor for a while, so it's worth throwing for added credibility. And the H1 2023 release window could be guesswork based on the guesswork of other people, which was repeated enough to become dogma.
And for the latter, if it doesn't happen during H1, one can always use the get out of jail free card "plans have changed". If the specs are different on some aspects, even better; "plans have changed because specs were modified late. What I said was true at the moment I've said it."

My opinion is that the machine discussed here exists and it's most likely what we'll get as a successor, though things like ram remain up in the air.
I also believe that having not heard of a new Mario, and having Mario Kart content releasing until the end of the year 2023, points to a release of the new machine in 2024 though I can see a scenario where it would release end of 2023.
I also believe that the current Switch will be perfectly fine in 2023 with a new Zelda, Fire Emblem, Pikmin, and long legged games such as Splatoon. And Nintendo knows it.
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Thanks for the response.
 
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Bosintang said:
Hard to debunk. In the hypothesis it's all bullshit:
What they say is mostly in line with the hard piece of info we have, plus a few educated speculations here and there. The rdr2 thing has been a rumor for a while, so it's worth throwing for added credibility. And the H1 2023 release window could be guesswork based on the guesswork of other people, which was repeated enough to become dogma.
And for the latter, if it doesn't happen during H1, one can always use the get out of jail free card "plans have changed". If the specs are different on some aspects, even better; "plans have changed because specs were modified late. What I said was true at the moment I've said it."

My opinion is that the machine discussed here exists and it's most likely what we'll get as a successor, though things like ram remain up in the air.
I also believe that having not heard of a new Mario, and having Mario Kart content releasing until the end of the year 2023, points to a release of the new machine in 2024 though I can see a scenario where it would release end of 2023.
I also believe that the current Switch will be perfectly fine in 2023 with a new Zelda, Fire Emblem, Pikmin, and long legged games such as Splatoon. And Nintendo knows it.
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What adds credibility to Polygon's story IMO is that this info wasn't coming from a friend. It's not a future source just someone they met while out a couple times. Perhaps they could always say in the future that they have become close friends, but if this is a BS setup it's not the one I think you would want to make up for future BSing.
 
Dakhil said:
asia.nikkei.com

Apple, Nvidia to be first customers of TSMC Arizona chip plant

Biden and top tech executives to attend equipment move-in event on Tuesday
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
TAIPEI -- Apple and Nvidia are set to be two of the first customers for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s new plant in Arizona, which is slated to begin making some of the world's most advanced chips as early as the end of next year.

Apple will be the most important first-wave customer when the plant begins production, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei Asia, with Nvidia likely to follow suit, they added.

⋮
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Stinky Horse said:
I still think this was just confusion caused by them repackaging the LCD model, which was announced about 6 weeks after the Splatoon announcement.
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That was a different one.

Not the same person.



Edit: also I don’t see how any of this makes Polygon credible, just my 2 cents.

It’s hearsay at best.



Edit2: The one that wasn’t aware of the new Splatoon model being an OLED spoke about it several weeks before the others began to speak about it, they didn’t know it was an OLED model at the time, but posted a picture of it (deleted it after but I saw the pic). Factory worker.

The one who spoke about the SPLATOON OLED model a few days before reveal was a Moderator on a forum. But these two people are not the same person. Former knew of a model but didn’t know it was the OLED, latter knew it was a OLED model but not several weeks before.
 
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Just to clarify, Muncle is who nailed the Splatoon 3 model announcement and then explicitly speculated that a Drake announcement would happen in September.
 
After last evening in here, i hope Nintendo has some announcement for this ready in very early 2023 rather than later.

Btw.: If you make me post Tommy again when i'm already in my work day's end, i'm going to have to ask for overtime payment! ;]
 
I've been holding off buying an OLED since last december. And my Switch is currently falling apart (it regularly looses connection with the joy cons and making some games almost unplayable).
I just want them to announce the damn thing so I can play games on a fonctional hardware...
 
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Hartmann said:
I don't believe that the configuration of T239 on Linux and T239 for Switch should necessarily be considered the same configuration.
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Hermii said:
Clock speed configurations, sure.
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Not just clock speed, also number of available CPU and GPU cores. Orin Nano is still T234, just binned.

However, the size of the GPU came from the NVN2 hack, so our biggest source of information about how the GPU works is Nintendo related.

It is also the info I believe most likely to be out of date if any of the data is.

AxkilAvenger said:
How was Polygon debunked? What happened?
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Ojoloco said:
Polygon was never debunked.
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Skittzo said:
Polygon was never debunked, but Polygon was also never really bunked in the first place.
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Polygon made some statements about the amount of RAM in devkits that didn’t match any RAM modules in manufacturing that could go with Drake.

At the time it was likely any devkits wouldn’t be Drake-based, so the configuration was possible, but it leaves the question of why.

Polygon’s only made three hard claims about the device that weren’t substantially supported by the existing leaks. 12GB of RAM, RDR2 as an exclusive, and that partners had been briefed about Nintendo’s intention to market the system as new Switch.

12GB of RAM is plausible. RDR2 mead already rumored. Both could change very late in the game, leaving Polygon plausible deniability.

Polygon’s claim that partners had been briefed was confirmed by Nate, but the details of that briefing or any of Polygon’s other claims he explicitly refused to comment on.
 
oldpuck said:
Not just clock speed, also number of available CPU and GPU cores. Orin Nano is still T234, just binned.

However, the size of the GPU came from the NVN2 hack, so our biggest source of information about how the GPU works is Nintendo related.

It is also the info I believe most likely to be out of date if any of the data is.




Polygon made some statements about the amount of RAM in devkits that didn’t match any RAM modules in manufacturing that could go with Drake.

At the time it was likely any devkits wouldn’t be Drake-based, so the configuration was possible, but it leaves the question of why.

Polygon’s only made three hard claims about the device that weren’t substantially supported by the existing leaks. 12GB of RAM, RDR2 as an exclusive, and that partners had been briefed about Nintendo’s intention to market the system as new Switch.

12GB of RAM is plausible. RDR2 mead already rumored. Both could change very late in the game, leaving Polygon plausible deniability.

Polygon’s claim that partners had been briefed was confirmed by Nate, but the details of that briefing or any of Polygon’s other claims he explicitly refused to comment on.
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The thing is, it was never debunked.

Therefore, it is only recommended to take the information it provides with a grain of salt. Something that has been done in this thread forever.

At the end of the day, it's like shodinger's cat, we won't know if it's true or not, until it's officially known. But that's with polygon and with every other rumor.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Just hope the software/UI side of things also sees a nice upgrade….

Like some features or QoL improvements. While still being snappy.
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Yeah, I'm hoping this level of hardware upgrade and the general way of the world forces them to be better in that regard. They also have been making some improvements over the last year or so, and I'm hoping that carries over even more into the next system.
 
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MusicProposition said:
Lol I just remembered the person that got the Splatoon OLED model right (even the date) and said that the next Switch would be revealed two months later. The better part of a rumor never happens
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if i remember right this was before Zelda got dated for 2023. just trying to order things in terms of the potentially relevant timeline. clearly there is lots going on behind the scenes we're not aware of so all speculations become fair game and it's best not to be attached to particular outcomes. the only thing for sure if that is if we're getting it with Zelda the wheels are in motion and plans can't change from here on out. so it's only a matter of time before Uncles pop out or something leaks on the dev side or we get more explicit clues via software scheduling.
 
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Ojoloco said:
The thing is, it was never debunked.

Therefore, it is only recommended to take the information it provides with a grain of salt. Something that has been done in this thread forever.

At the end of the day, it's like shodinger's cat, we won't know if it's true or not, until it's officially known. But that's with polygon and with every other rumor.
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I would argue we won't know even if it all turns out. 12 gb could be a lucky guess, RDR 2 could be true, but he is not the only source on. that.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Just hope the software/UI side of things also sees a nice upgrade….

Like some features or QoL improvements. While still being snappy.
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On the software side of things, I'm really hoping we can resuspend more apps at once. Being able to resuspend even just two games at once would be a god send.

But yeah, besides that.. Longer video recording (and 1080p pictures and photos), being able to message friends (probably not gonna happen, because Nintendo) and a centralized voice chat system as well.

Bringing universe back from Wii u era would be amazing also.
 
Ojoloco said:
So we never known if the cat is alive
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We will be able to check on the cat's condition in April*. The day of Reckoning moves ever closer, hardware or no hardware.

*End of February really, that should be when a TotK OLED would be announced if there is one.
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
FWIW
January 7, 2003: GBASP announcement
January 13, 2017: Switch pre-launch blowout
January 26, 2006: DS Lite announcement
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January 7th doubled is January 14th, only that was a Saturday. January 13th doubled would be January 26th....

I've found the pattern! Drakes announcement will be on January 52nd.

Science!
 
ShaunSwitch said:
January 7th doubled is January 14th, only that was a Saturday. January 13th doubled would be January 26th....

I've found the pattern! Drakes announcement will be on January 52nd.

Science!
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But to expand on the science, February 21st feels like as good a date as any. A little removed from the holiday spending that occured in December, a week before Pokemon Day announcements, a week and a half before the seven year anniversary of Switch...

I mean yes, could wax poetic about any and all possible patterns where it makes sense, but I'm still vibing with an announcement in late February/early March
 
Maxrunner said:
By the time they release this thing it will already be severely outdated if Nintendo keeps milking the current one to the bone.
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My guy, it’s already using a CPU that will be 3 gens behind and a GPU that is a whole gen behind.


Nintendo really don’t care.


Like are people really surprised that the penny pinching company that milked the GAMECUBE hardware from 2001 all the way till 2017, with the final console using it had a GPU from 2008, and also milked the Wii to the ground wouldn’t do the same card again? They did it before and will do it again.
 
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
My guy, it’s already using a CPU that will be 3 gens behind and a GPU that is a whole gen behind.


Nintendo really don’t care.
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You could say that, but it’s not entirely true. Orin Ampere is not an entire gen behind Ada, as it got some updates from launch Ampere. Drake, assuming it’s launching next year is quite cutting edge for Nintendo (8nm would be a bummer though).
 
AxkilAvenger said:
It’s Nintendo’s fans (myself included) who don’t care. If the true fan base screamed for moar power, Nintendo would listen or stop making consoles.
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Nintendo is incredibly slow at reacting, by the time they notice any “uproar” it’ll already be a console gen behind.

And then that gen they’ll react to the uproar of a whole gen behind.

And that complacency of fans isn’t helping this case…
Hermii said:
You could say that, but it’s not entirely true. Orin Ampere is not an entire gen behind Ada, as it got some updates from launch Ampere. Drake, assuming it’s launching next year is quite cutting edge for Nintendo (8nm would be a bummer though).
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Until we see exactly what ORIN ampere has that Drake has that facilitates it having something more modern that separates it, it remains to be seen if it has anything from later gens.
 
Mendinso said:
Okay, maybe I missed discussion on this (and I likely did), but where was this confirmed?
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ILikeFeet said:
recent products are now using it. one of the Orin products are using it I think
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Orin Nano 8GB, and Orin NX 8GB.

Orin Nano in general is an interesting datapoint for Drake. It clocks memory at 2133MHz, is substantially more efficient than the AGX devkit flashed to "nano mode", is quite a bit smaller than Drake, but still is a little power hungry for the Switch.

I think there is time between February and August for Hovi to decide to go with fewer SMs enabled, and higher clocks, for either yield or battery life reasons. If Orin Nano 8GB topped out at 10W I'd think, okay, maybe there are enough wins somewhere to go with the full 12, or to at least shoot for 12 then pull back to 8.

But Nano's 8SMs are at only 640Mhz, and only runs 6 CPUs at 1.5Ghz, and has the smallest memory config I can imagine for Drake (8GB@2133Mhz), and still hits 15W. It's still too power hungry, but it's perf/power ratio is actually higher than Jensen said it would be in 2019, so it doesn't feel like that should have surprised anyone.

I think the burden of proof that Drake is not on the same process node as Orin - and in fact, the entire Ampere line - is pretty high, but that really feels like the nail in the Samsung 8nm coffin.
 
Mobius said:
I remember seeing a clip of someone using the Nintendo controller on RDR2 Stadia and it wouldn't show this icon.
I am for sure won't be able to find it again tho. (random twitter post iirc)
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Either way, a controller icon is not evidence of anything. Many other possible/ more likely explanations than a port.
 
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Mobius said:
I remember seeing a clip of someone using the Nintendo controller on RDR2 Stadia and it wouldn't show this icon.
I am for sure won't be able to find it again tho. (random twitter post iirc)
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I had the opportunity to test the game in stadia, using a pro switch controller (because I don't have other controller), and indeed the controller or the switch controls did not appear in the game, it came out if I remember correctly with a generic controller and the generic buttons of pc controls.

I dont play the game on pc, but you can see the same on some tutorials and gameplays. If you connected the pro controller, the game shows you the generic Xbox/PC controllers




Edit. I found a video of stadia

 
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
Until we see exactly what ORIN ampere has that Drake has that facilitates it having something more modern that separates it, it remains to be seen if it has anything from later gens.
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Hermii said:
Wasn’t it in the Nvidia docs that it has improved cache structure
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For raster workloads, Ada is just a node shrunk Ampere. If you read the Ada and Ampere whitepapers side by side, the design is identical except for a larger L2 cache, which is placed there for RT workloads primarily. Orin does, in fact, offer a larger L2 cache as well.

Ada updates the RT cores, the tensor cores, the OFA, and NVENC.

Orin has the updated tensor cores. Drake chose not to use them, presumably because they're not a win.

Orin has the updated 8th gen NVENC as well.

The OFA is a piece of hardware that came along when Turing unified the pro and the consumer GPU lines. DLSS 3 finally puts it to real use in games, but DLSS 3 isn't a win on Drake for previously discussed reasons.

The only remaining win is the RT cores, but even there one of the supposed improvements of the new RT cores is really just rebranding the larger L2 cache. Ampere's RT cores are already well ahead of what is offered in RDNA3, and RT on Drake is going to be limited by Drake's size well before it's limited by the quality of the RT cores themselves.

Drake is in no way a "generation" behind.
 
Hermii said:
Ok, then these prices are definitely not applicable to Drake.
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Correct. But Marvell's chart does give a rough idea of how much prices increase as process nodes become more advance. So Marvell's chart is still applicable for future SoCs (after hardware using Drake are released).
Anyway, Portal RTX seems very reliant on DLSS 3 to achieve ≥ 60 fps when turning on path tracing.


www.techpowerup.com

Portal with RTX Review - Amazing Raytracing

Valve has teamed up with NVIDIA to remaster their smash-hit Portal with ray tracing. Unlike most other titles out there, which combine rasterization and ray tracing, Portal with RTX is fully path traced, which enables astonishing realism, but also comes with a huge performance hit.
www.techpowerup.com www.techpowerup.com
Assuming Drake's Optical Flow Accelerator (OFA) performs very similarly to Ada Lovelace's OFA (since the only confirmed information is that Drake shares the same OFA as Orin), I wonder how Nvidia Lightspeed Studios could optimise Portal RTX for Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake.
 
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