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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
To quickly add to Thraktor's (excellent) point - investors talking to investors won't use "next-gen hardware" to mean what we in the thread might mean it to mean. "Next-gen" to us means "4-6x performance improvement," to a stock analyst it means "the end of the Switch life-cycle." Citi is telling investors that they expect the 110 million Switch install base to be a critical driver of first party software sales into 2024, a statement which I doubt many of us would find off-base.
Me, I wouldn't be utterly shocked by a release past the H1 window that we so often talk about next year, but a 2024+ release would mean something very bad happened. Bloomberg talked to 11 developers with devkits, those projects would be scrapped, very much souring Nintendo's relationship with those partners. The Drake SOC would almost definitely be cancelled, and since there are Linux updates being made, that would almost definitely be after some manufacturing commitment, with Nvidia stuck with the stock and attempting to make some money back. That would definitely sour that relationship too. Would Nintendo stick with Nvidia (or vice versa) at that point?
There would be lawsuits. It would be news.
The other possibility is that the last year of leaks and reports were fake, and the fact that they exactly matched hacked data coming out of Nvidia and their public Linux drops was total coincidence. I am... dubious
LinkURL
Bob-omb
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- He/him
What if NVidia uses the Switch Pro as marketing? putting an "nvidia inside" on the box, on the back of the console or even in the boot animation, in exchange for giving a discount on each chip produced.
With the world becoming more and more ARM, I think the Tegras today are the only ones that have the ability to go head-to-head with Apple's M chips.
Starting a line of Tegras for smartphones and laptops, with the marketing of being the company that made Nintendo invest in high-end hardware again, would be a great starting point.
With the world becoming more and more ARM, I think the Tegras today are the only ones that have the ability to go head-to-head with Apple's M chips.
Starting a line of Tegras for smartphones and laptops, with the marketing of being the company that made Nintendo invest in high-end hardware again, would be a great starting point.
KeijiKG
Moblin
There's always someone in this thread who thinks it's open mic-night, isn't there?
Depends entirely on process node though. Not even the worlds best 8nm soc can compete with Apple.
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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From what I can tell, they are heavily marketing Nvidia chips to PC players(not limited to) in their big markets.
KeijiKG
Moblin
Nintendo's the only major console manufacturer using NVIDIA these days, so if anything it's in NVIDIA's best interest to sweeten the pot rather than Nintendo. They already supply laptops with their GPUs and that's not going to slow down and I doubt we'll see their hardware in mobile devices again not since the Google Pixel C tablet used a Tegra X1 but if an SoC based on the T239's hardware surfaces in a tablet or a Shield TV, that's just business as usual. From where I stand, the smartphone market and ARM hardware is sitting fine where it is since anything beyond the Cortex-A72 is a beast and while I don't doubt Apple's M1 and M2 processors are an earnest attempt to compete with x86 based systems, ARM is already taking huge steps in performance as much as Cortex-A76 and beyond. Hell, we're starting to see Mali based GPUs starting to standardize ray-tracing by next year or 2024 and even with that in mind, I still have it in good faith NVIDIA's GPU tech in the next mobile SoC they'll provide will be tough to beat for a while, though I think Imagination/PowerVR and Adreno will try to catch up.
The marketing thing sounds redundant since their bank-breaking GPUs sell themselves, regardless of the headlines.
OP
OP
Softbank's Son devotes himself to growing Arm for years
Speech did not mention IPO, did say CEO's close involvement is good for humanity
www.theregister.com
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
I brought this up awhile back in wondering would Nintendo ever do another licensing agreement like they did with ATI on the GameCube with Nvidia in future hardware. Looking back on that situation ATi being AMD now, Nintendo were the only company using anything AMD related in their console and now AMD are in everything but Nintendo hardware today...
The Switch selling over 100 million units around the world might do more for Nvidia in the mobile space if their logo is placed on both the box and console. We don't have a lot of great examples of how Nvidia's architecture performs in low powered devices other than Switch and what's been accomplished with the dated hardware is pretty astounding.
Foltzie
Uncle
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- he/him
If nVidia is willing to cut some sort of deal for the logo, sure why not, but from an engineering standpoint, anyone sourcing hardware for mobile devices knows what options Qualcom has vs what nVidia has available.
LinkURL
Bob-omb
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Yes, that's what I believe. Nvidia must have bigger plans for the Tegra than just a line of chips for Nintendo or self-driving cars, they have the potential to enter the market for socs for smartphones and laptops. And in that case, being recognized worldwide, as the company that produced a tablet for Nintendo that runs current-gen games in 4K would be an advantage.
Kenka
Like Like
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@NateDrake, just wondering: have you ever heard of a Pro model that ended up being scraped?
And if yes, could you maybe tentatively say what was the main reason?
And if yes, could you maybe tentatively say what was the main reason?
Correct
If there ever was a pro model imo, it was probably just better clock profiles on Mariko.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Exactly, and the logo on the box doesn't target those folks anyway. It targets PC consumers who might want to buy the same hardware elsewhere. NVidia already dominates that market, and as cool as Drake is, it won't be slapping around Series X or PS5. I'm not sure it's a brand synergy that NVidia wants or needs
Cuzizkool
Shriekbat
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Sorry to add to the doom and gloom, but has inflation gotten so bad that maybe Nintendo scrapped Drake to go with cheaper hardware? I know everyone says it would cost a lot for Drake to be scrapped this late in the game, but if Nintendo was going to sell Drake at a profit, maybe they wouldn’t see the benefit if they had to charge ~$500 or more just to break even?
it hasn't.
and you're forgetting that you're not just paying the costs for scrapping drake, but the costs for designing a whole new chip. that takes multiple years. so is it better to launch drake now, even if at a higher price, or wait 2-3 years before you come up with a cheaper design, on a more expensive node, that would probably release in a market with different conditions?
IIRC traces of both the switch lite and the switch OLED were discovered in the firmware code many months before their respective releases, if nothing has been found about drake it could only mean two things: either drake is far from releasing or it will have a completely different firmware (which also means that it is a successor and not a pro version)
OP
OP
Or Nintendo's new hardware uses a fork of Horizon for the OS.
Ah optimism.. but deep inside, we all know that we'll play TotK in 720p/25fps
- Pronouns
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The recent pessimism is getting to me a bit. I'd already commented about podcast sentiment shifting months back - well it's in full swing now. Where cagey noncommittal statements about whether or not Nintendo needed a successor were still common around July/August, the recent NPD numbers and things like Bayonetta performance have seemingly opened the floodgates for people to start admitting that the system has lost it's luster and could really use a refresh.
Let's keep our eyes on H1 2023. Nothing's changed.
Let's keep our eyes on H1 2023. Nothing's changed.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
HorizonOS, the firmware in Switch, is descended from HorizonOS, the firmware in the 3DS. 3DS firmware updates did not contain references to the Switch.
Successor doesn't necessarily mean completely different firmware, firmware doesn't necessarily leak hardware.
The OLED and the Lite models are the same hardware architecture, and use the same firmware. It is unsurprising that Nintendo kept their development in sync, and because the firmware was full of references to multiple unreleased models (Calcio and Copper) Nintendo had plausible deniability.
Drake will have a new SOC architecture, and Horizon is not a general purpose OS. Every component knows a lot about the hardware it runs on, so it will need a huge overhaul. It makes sense, from a development point of view, to keep those branches separate, which eliminates leaks.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
It doesn't have to be completely different to not show up directly. There's a lot of space between "it's just another hardware config Nintendo didn't bother to hide" and "the firmware will be completely different".
Besides there certainly have been some odd findings in the firmware lately that would most straightforwardly be explained by new hardware coming soon.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Out of curiosity, since you have your ear to the ground there better than me - anything of note since the new DataPatch patchtype?
LinkURL
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- He/him
Is there some place that explain all the "models" present in HOS firmware? Like Calcio and Copper that you mentioned?
I haven't noticed any movement around that, at least. Not that I've been looking super proactively.
There's information spread out across Switchbrew, like these pages for example:
Secure Monitor - Nintendo Switch Brew
System Settings - Nintendo Switch Brew
Bascially:
Icosa = Erista (launch) Hybrid
Iowa = Mariko (red box/v2) Hybrid
Hoag = Lite
Aula = OLED
Copper = unreleased Erista TV-only device
Calcio = unreleased Mariko TV-only device
It's widely speculated that Copper and Calcio are just test boards that Nintendo uses internally.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Secure Monitor - Nintendo Switch Brew
Icosa is the original Switch, and Copper is labeled some places as a "simulator", but it could be physical hardware used for development. It has no cartridge slot, or screen of its own.
Iowa is the Mariko model with better battery life. It also removes the TSEC - the Tegra Security module - which was found to have an exploit. Hoag is the Lite.
Aula is the OLED model. For a long time, this was thought to be the Switch 4k, because it contains references to a 4k capable chip which turned out to be in the OLED dock. This is a case where dataminers - who are smart, knowledgeable people! - and the community around them were loudly touting something that turned out to be wrong. They made the mistake that lots of the press did, that the OLED and the 4k model were the same. They (rightly!) saw that OLED was running the same SOC as the other models, and many of them assumed that Nintendo was going to launch an upscaling 4k dock. Obviously that didn't come to pass.
Calcio is the same as Copper but for Mariko. Some folks were fairly confident that Calcio was going to be an actual piece of consumer hardware, a digital only TV only switch (because it has no cartridge slot or screen). In fact, it was almost definitely just an internal devkit for Aula/Hoag/Iowa.
Edit: Didn't see @Pokemaniac said it faster and better
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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If you read this portion, it explicitly mentions HOS which is HorizonOS in the NVN2 API. If it doesn’t show up in current firmware, it’s intentional.
unlikely. binned marikos didn't make it into the lite model
What @ILikeFeet said. The lite switches perform exactly the same as v2 and OLED models. The only differences are form factor, display, video output (or lack thereof) and battery life.
ertaboy356b
Resident Troll
This has been discussed before and no they don't.
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The likelihood is highly not likely. You'd most likely be looking at Nvidia creating another Jetson Nano SKU to absorb binned chips, as well as a new Shield (which would be marketed for its AV1 codec support, meaning lightning-fast low-bandwidth 4K Netflix, among other things, and would be one of the only set-top boxes to offer it). Or, if Microsoft has ironed more of the kinks out, they could opt instead to use binned T239 chips for a Windows micro-PC. Or perhaps all of the above.
I guess the point is, when it comes to maximizing usable chips per wafer, Nvidia has options, and that keeps costs down for them and Nintendo.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
I'd be surprised if resolution and performance isn't similar to botw port on switch. The game was built for the switch first and will work around it's hardware. Just seems like the Nintendo thing to do to have baseline handled performance to be solid. But who knows.. maybe not.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Well BotW was a port, I imagine the sequel will be more modern in engine features, things like mixed precision will likely be used, it's suppose to be a much more vertical game, and they will have to find a way to not lose performance there.
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I don't know anything about hardware (and have a hard time keeping up to the technical discussion ITT even though I try to stay informed!), but from the financial side of things, it would be way too late into the product development with the sunk costs too high to start from scratch for a product that is supposedly meant to be on the market for maybe half a decade plus and takes a similar timeframe to get out to the market.
The losses involved in ceasing development and planned production, terminating deals (likely incurring compensation claims for damages), and starting development anew when the post-Covid economy hit would definitely be higher than just taking partial losses if the produced units eventually sell at discounted prices. At least they recuperate some of the sunk cost that way. The alternative is equivalent to burning money, given that the product is in a marketable state (which it by all accounts is).
stodesign12
Bob-omb
The only reason I'm not buying the Pokémon SV OLED is Drake. And now I don't know what to do... May be wait for a TotK OLED?
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Honestly, a bit of the corporate planning, manufacturing and finance side would likely help keep things more grounded. A new hardware launch is a 3-4 year ordeal and, at some point in that process, it becomes incredibly hazardous to delay or take it back.
Case in point... why else would Microsoft and Sony launch a console in the middle of the worst of a global pandemic and all the economic uncertainty that creates if they could just... walk away and try again in a few years?
At about 1-2 years prior to an expected launch, you kinda have to just bite the bullet.
LinkURL
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- He/him
There's information spread out across Switchbrew, like these pages for example:
Secure Monitor - Nintendo Switch Brew
switchbrew.org
System Settings - Nintendo Switch Brew
Bascially:
Icosa = Erista (launch) Hybrid
Iowa = Mariko (red box/v2) Hybrid
Hoag = Lite
Aula = OLED
Copper = unreleased Erista TV-only device
Calcio = unreleased Mariko TV-only device
It's widely speculated that Copper and Calcio are just test boards that Nintendo uses internally.
Thanks guys!!Secure Monitor - Nintendo Switch Brew
Icosa is the original Switch, and Copper is labeled some places as a "simulator", but it could be physical hardware used for development. It has no cartridge slot, or screen of its own.
Iowa is the Mariko model with better battery life. It also removes the TSEC - the Tegra Security module - which was found to have an exploit. Hoag is the Lite.
Aula is the OLED model. For a long time, this was thought to be the Switch 4k, because it contains references to a 4k capable chip which turned out to be in the OLED dock. This is a case where dataminers - who are smart, knowledgeable people! - and the community around them were loudly touting something that turned out to be wrong. They made the mistake that lots of the press did, that the OLED and the 4k model were the same. They (rightly!) saw that OLED was running the same SOC as the other models, and many of them assumed that Nintendo was going to launch an upscaling 4k dock. Obviously that didn't come to pass.
Calcio is the same as Copper but for Mariko. Some folks were fairly confident that Calcio was going to be an actual piece of consumer hardware, a digital only TV only switch (because it has no cartridge slot or screen). In fact, it was almost definitely just an internal devkit for Aula/Hoag/Iowa.
Edit: Didn't see @Pokemaniac said it faster and better
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
- Pronouns
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The funny thing about this thread is that everyone can contribute in their own way. It’s not simply the nitty gritty of technical specifications for the performance of the device or number of CPU and GPU cores, but also allows a spot for the discussion of the business plans and goals that can work with a new device on the market, other potential ideas for a hardware feature that is unique to that hardware, more general technical discussion such as about the screens, the wifi, game engines, wider industry shift that has an indirect effect on the future plans of the platform (and thus your game enjoyment to a degree), economics of the product in the long-term, etc.
Hell, we talk about Nintendo’s investor Q&A here and the sales from time to time, here of all places! And why? Because it has a relevance in the overarching topic of “Future Nintendo Hardware”
Hell, we talk about Nintendo’s investor Q&A here and the sales from time to time, here of all places! And why? Because it has a relevance in the overarching topic of “Future Nintendo Hardware”
Foltzie
Uncle
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- he/him
Drake is coming, but it’s on you to decide if a potential later 2023 or 2024 release is too long to wait or if you want an OLED model in the interim.
I don’t think Drake will release that late for all of the practical reasons cited in this thread, but an exact date is still unknown.
CullenLX87
Cappy
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- He/Him
Nintendo is such a conservative company when it comes to their hardware. I don't see them taking any of those delays. Excellent points and thanks for the insight.
Aether
Tingle
Yeah, it being semingly planned for this year but then being moved for reasons indicates to me that 2024 is to far off,
but a year delay for a console does not seem to far out there to me, so fall 2023.
Its definitely not the best time for a new switch price wise, but if you dont have one, and dont want to wait another year...oh well.
If you sell it in a year there is the chance that you paid 100-150$ to be able to play switch games for a year, which is fine i guess.
If you already have a switch...theeen i dont see the point, but thats me personally.
Kise Ryota
Moblin
So, the Switch was 3rd in the last NPD - both in unit and dollar. And AFAIK, it's pretty easy to find a Switch on shelves or online. Let's see what will happen with Pokémon and the holiday sales overall (where they are usually very strong).
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Yeah it definitely should be. But I do think they will aim for a similar performance and resolution to botw on switch in the end 720p-900p ~30 fps)
Do you have a v1 or v2 switch already? If so, yeah I'd wait at this point. At least until February. That's when we should hear about Drake, if it's releasing by May/mid year.
Aether
Tingle
it wont be a port...butat the same time, with more verticality and stuff they will consume the engine improvements they had pretty fast. botw is still one of the best performing open world games out there on switch, so i really dont think that there is that much to improve on the engine in regards to performance on switch.
and if there is a push... then we did not see the big inprovements in the trailers.If it pushed much further then BotW then it could be the most impressive switch game out there.
@NateDrake
Nate, I know that you dont owe us anything, and I personally would ask this in your podcast, but since the distance between podcasts is always uncertain I wanted to ask this here, and I hope its OK:
Couple of months ago, you mentioned about a significant detail your sources told you (around the NVN2 hype). Back then you told us that you are waiting for confirmation - abruptly though, this topic vanished from your side (when everybody was waiting for a NVN2 edition podcast)
Can you tell us all these months later, what it was? Or does it have something to do with your post from a couple of days ago (where you mentioned that you have heard something new)? Maybe in a hidden post?
Best regards Nate
Nate, I know that you dont owe us anything, and I personally would ask this in your podcast, but since the distance between podcasts is always uncertain I wanted to ask this here, and I hope its OK:
Couple of months ago, you mentioned about a significant detail your sources told you (around the NVN2 hype). Back then you told us that you are waiting for confirmation - abruptly though, this topic vanished from your side (when everybody was waiting for a NVN2 edition podcast)
Can you tell us all these months later, what it was? Or does it have something to do with your post from a couple of days ago (where you mentioned that you have heard something new)? Maybe in a hidden post?
Best regards Nate
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