Link_enfant
Fashion Dreamer
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1 week before in EU, but yeah almost a month before in NA. both released at the same time in Japan.
*Sorry for double post
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
*Sorry for double post
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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- he/him
Doing this for all games, as you proposed, doesn't serve any purpose but to piss off the vast majority of your users for negligible benefit. Drake will sell itself by virtue of being a Switch, Nintendo doesn't have to shove the rest of the user base down a drain to help it along.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
Let's say they want to release Drake in March and that TotK Drake version will be ready by then but OG needs ironing out.
I don't see why they wouldn't just wait and release TotK in May.They won't have issues selling everything they can produce in the first 2 months. They can even boost sales for whatever other Drake enhanced games they will have on launch.
TP Wii had a hard deadline cause the Wii wouldn't be delayed to December and the Wii needed games to convince hardcore player into adopting it early.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
I guess you’ve been reading the last page or so too…
mjayer
Moblin
The more I think about this the more it seems like a very real possibility.
If Nintendo is thinking physical game cards are a mistake based on the fact that they are too costly, and in fact costs are going up for the bigger sizes needed for Switch 2's high level assets for 4k, they may have no other choice than go digital only for Switch 2 games. What better solution is on the market that cost less and has adequate speed/capacity?
They launch Switch 2 with a Switch 1 card slot just for backwards compatibility. They offer free download Switch 2 version of any Switch 1 card inserted into the Switch 2 for the first year, or perhaps also as an on-going NSO perk.
Switch 2 includes a relatively hefty, and speedy 1TB ssd. The 2024 "pro" version comes with better screen, new SOC node with better battery life, etc and comes with 2 TB drive.
Internet will revolt over a digital only Nintendo future. It'll be a fun announcement lol.
If Nintendo is thinking physical game cards are a mistake based on the fact that they are too costly, and in fact costs are going up for the bigger sizes needed for Switch 2's high level assets for 4k, they may have no other choice than go digital only for Switch 2 games. What better solution is on the market that cost less and has adequate speed/capacity?
They launch Switch 2 with a Switch 1 card slot just for backwards compatibility. They offer free download Switch 2 version of any Switch 1 card inserted into the Switch 2 for the first year, or perhaps also as an on-going NSO perk.
Switch 2 includes a relatively hefty, and speedy 1TB ssd. The 2024 "pro" version comes with better screen, new SOC node with better battery life, etc and comes with 2 TB drive.
Internet will revolt over a digital only Nintendo future. It'll be a fun announcement lol.
OP
OP
I don't think 1 TB is happening, nor do I think 2 TB is happening. In the best case scenario, I expect 256 GB at the highest.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
4K assets aren't necessary and can just be optional downloads, if over 16GB is deemed too costly.
Using 16GB carts and requiring mandatory download would still be a better approach, specially since they would have the card slot anyway.
Even if they want to go digital-only in the future, selling 32/64GB physical for $70 and digital for $60 would cause less backfire and gradually transition people to digital during the next generation instead of risking alienating them.
You're proposing 16x the amount of storage on the OLED. It's not happening.
eK-XL
Rattata
- Pronouns
- He
Every game company wants to go digital only: they'll make more money and cut out the middle man. Each generation they will consider it and look at factors such as cost to produce media, consumer behavior, internet infrastructure, etc before making a decision. It's not silly entertainment, it's a business decision. But by all means, stifle discussion of something new in lieu of the same old conversations about ram amount, clock speed, thermals, and launch date.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Nintendo has had trouble getting other parts, like Bluetooth controllers. They’ll have 100% of the market for Drake, it’s actually not impossible that something other than Drake is the bottleneck. If I had to bet, I’d still say Drake was the limiting factor but I could see it being something else
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
^it is a silly discussion though. Yeah further out in the future it’s possible, but not something of a discussion for Nintendo in the near future.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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You expect me to believe that in the next Nintendo direct, for example set in February or late January, will announce a game for March and April and that this new device which hasn’t even been announced yet is going to release in one of those two months before May? Am I actually expected to believe such a thing?
If it’s some random Twitter drop, then that’s not really a major title to Nintendo.
When I said RE for remake, I’m saying by itself as the headliner, and with other software as the additional support. Nintendo will still release a first party title that is the headliner for the system, and something like resident evil 4 remake will simply be the support or the extra icing or cherry on top to the launch lineup of the system.
It will not be treated as a singular entity.
A game not being announced yet and releasing in April is perhaps due to the Mario movie being in April. When you have titles that are very close to the movie, one tends to overshadow the other specifically if they’re from the same series. This is why movies and games tend to not really release close to each other, but release far away from each other as to reduce the possibility of that happening. Fortunately there is no Mario game so that alleviates a lot. That said, only March is really suspicious because it’s straight up empty. But I expect some twitter drops to fill in the time or the direct to show a title for then.
Oh hey it’s not even October yet…. intriguing.
For the record, that would mean that they have to announce it now. Now if you believe that they’re going to release it in March, then you also have to believe that they’re going to announce this year for next year sometime in the next month or so.
Which… good luck?
For the record, since it has 8 cores and 12SMs, it’s impossible for the CHIP to be less than the Steam Deck Van Gogh APU.
While we can have the due area of the A78 and the 1GPC, we have to include the CACHE, the memory controller, the logic, the front end, etc, and this is is hard to be less than the Steam Deck APU.
The portable and docked can run but it seems like it’s linked to the frequency of the system for what to enable due to the nature of how or what the system is.
I think you mean translation? It’s possible that they’ll go a route of translation for the BC.
For BC, if they go a hardware route then I see the RAM being clocked very low to match the RAM of the switch. So, 800MHz LPDDR5 + the GPU and CPU clocked to the switch clocks and disabled during that mode.
And this is why I asked, what would the headliner launch title be if it wasn’t Zelda? People brought up some IPs that Nintendo owns which could fit the role, but most of them were pretty much small titles or their lower class games, and I’m not saying that as in that they are terrible, I mean in their selling power they are significantly less. The only one that was a potential to be a system seller and can be used as a showcase title would be a 3D Mario, and those other titles would be more support for the whole launch window and launch lineup of the system.
If it’s not with Zelda, then I don’t see what on earth they would release the system with they would actually be a good showcase for the capabilities of the system, and what you can offer at any other time of the year.
Unless people literally expect it to launch with literally zero headliner title which…. come on now…
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I mean ... no? I even wrote announcement in Jan/Feb 2023. I think they give this a very short timeframe between announcement and release.
Lelouch0612
Growing Install Base
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If people wants to entertain a digital-only console, I think that rather than preventing the discussion happening, we should be open to a dual-SKU release.
Would such a device have sense in the Switch family ? How much savings would it allow ?
I am of the mind than removing the card slot would save almost nothing and therefore won't justify a position like the PS5D (that has ultimately a very small share).
Would such a device have sense in the Switch family ? How much savings would it allow ?
I am of the mind than removing the card slot would save almost nothing and therefore won't justify a position like the PS5D (that has ultimately a very small share).
Teal'c
Shriekbat
2 DVDs on PC?
I guess patch after patch (and maybe DLC?) the game has grown uncontrollably.
Certainly one of the problems with mini gaming PCs, like Steamdeck, is the space available, which combined with the lack of physical support and poor optimisation forces the purchase of a big microSD.
The 256GB version combined with a micro SD of the same size is proving insufficient.
Luckily Steamdeck was a gift, because between dock, 512GB micro SD and hdmi cable I will have to spend over 100€.
- Pronouns
- they/them
They announced the DSi like a month before it shipped. The New 3DS was around thereabouts, too. The PS4 Pro was announced in September and released in November. There’s precedent for having a short announcement-release window for hardware. The important thing is that developers know about the hardware in advance, and they clearly do.
Outside of the initial concept reveal video, we got basically all of the launch details for the Switch in January, less than two months before it shipped.
They announced 1-2-Switch in January and released it in March. They announced Ring Fit Adventure mere weeks before its launch. Same with Super Mario 3D All-Stars. They can easily announce a game in January and release it in March, especially if it’s a wide-audience “blue ocean” title. They’ve done that before.
Honestly, the problem with the 2017 and 2019 switch displays isn't even the fact that it's LCD.
It's the fact that the digitizer cover is made of the cheapest plastic known to man.
The way light passes through covers on lcd panels affects so much the resulting image it's absurd.
Like, one of the things that pisses me off the most about PC monitors is how NONE absolutely NO PC monitor on the market has a glossy finish (except for the recent crowd-funded EVE spectrum and the apple ones which are stupidly expensive anyways).
Had the switch a gorilla glass cover like any phone on the market today I believe there would be a considerable improvement in clarity and blacks presentation on the v1/v2 switches.
Here's a good comparison of the worst-case scenario (matte covers) vs the best case (a glass glossy cover). The switch's cover is a in-between I'd say.
I do have an OLED samsung phone and I know the difference OLED makes. But I still think IPS LCD is a great technology under the right circumstances
(close to 100% sRGB coverage, at least 1000:1 contrast ratio or above, glass cover, ~=<5ms input lag, anti-flicker (no PWM), little to no ghosting issues).
Hell, even 8bit colour through FRC is imo completely acceptable. To be honest, for a cheap ass device like a portable console, I think even ~70-80% sRGB is fine as long as the contrast ratio is decent, and a glass cover is used.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
RIP the Spectrum monitor. Glossy finish with built in integer scaling to 4K. Would have been perfect for pixel art games. Too bad their reputation is in the dumpster.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
It doesn't save much for the PS5D/XSS either. The point of digital-only SKUs is that they will make more money from Software and will shrink the used market, so they're willing to take a larger loss on hardware for long terms prospects.
shit, removing the disc drive in the PS5 saves nothing
Nintendo doesn't need to go digital-only to bring us a better online service or even "make more money".
You spent this whole thread trying to convince people that nintendo HAS to go digital as if they were doomed to become the next SEGA if they didn't comply.
Which is fucking stupid considering the company still makes a lot of profit from physical sales and most important: sony, their closest competitor in terms of net-worth does in fact provide a better online service even though they have an inferior profit to nintendo.
Now, answer me a question: what do YOU gain from nintendo going all digital if for every single physical release there's a digital option?
mjayer
Moblin
Why not? This is going to be a much more premium model introduced with the current one continuing for some time, and 1TB drives have come way down. Perhaps your right and it's a bit high, I could still see 512 or even matching PS5's size. 2 TB, or at least something well above 1 TB in 2024 shouldn't be an issue as prices should have fallen enough to allow that.
I'm not saying it's likely, I'm just saying it's a possibility. It makes business and logical sense.
They may not market it as digital only either. It just may be, for intents and purposes. They keep the cards around for all first party games because all those games will be playable on Switch 1, and of course they work with Switch 2, but to get 4k you have to download additional data. If that's the standard going forward, they won't have to say it but they just went digital only. You'll only know if it's the case when the first Switch 2 Exclusive comes out and if it doesn't have a physical release.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Sorry for the double post, but I just want to mention that Nintendo can position this new device in a very specific backwards compatibility mode that really offers superior battery savings even over the OLED model.
I feel like we alluded to this previously but never expanded upon this
Use of LPDDR5 RAM: the Switch has LPDDR4 RAM that is clocked to 1333MHz in portable mode and offers the bandwidth that it does. The refresh of 2019 uses LPDDR4X who can be faster/ have higher memory bandwidth at the same power draw or have less power draw at a lower clock frequency. Nintendo opted for that.
If Nintendo had the LPDDR5 memory clocked to 666MHz (give it take) in portable mode it should offer even more batter saving but match up with the memory bandwidth of the switch. Or offer the same speed of 1333MHz and result in a 100% increase in memory bandwidth for portable mode.
This would be really helpful for extra juice saving (a technical term for now)
CPU: since it’s most likely the A78, and since it has 8 of them, with 7 for games, they can match it and just temporarily turn the ones the games don’t use (if they don’t adjust anyway to more cores/threads) just turn off for that game.
3A78 @ 1GHz would still offer a noticeable CPU improvement over the 3A57.
You can get less than a watt for 4 A78 cores (3 for games and 1 for the OS if it clocks that low?) I believe, being around 0.46-0.60W just for the CPU.
The other cores would be turned off during this.
And this can offer a 2.39x CPU uplift while being in the same clocks and core config.
GPU would be tricky though as that can be clocked very low but not lower than the switch clocks.
Perhaps… turning some cores off during BC mode or just using a software solution here can help where it doesn’t matter how many SMs are on necessarily….
Needless to say, that the newer architecture by itself would offer either performance uplift that cannot be ignored, or a battery saving that cannot be ignored. Better than the OLED and V2 model for switch games or better performance with the same battery life.
With Switch 2 titles that’s a different discussion altogether with its own clocks and whatnot.
This can’t be overlooked!
I’m just going to throw a number and it’s just me speculating here, but if they have a specific backwards compatibility mode, that’s something like what I described above, they can have instead of 4.5 hours as the minimum they can probably have six hours as the lower end. Instead of nine hours as the maximum, they can probably get away with 12 hours as the maximum battery life that the system can actually have. Again, probably.
please don’t read this as me saying expect that, it’s that it is possible for them to do this and save a lot of energy while also offering a performance uplift that can’t be ignored for BC mode.
I feel like we alluded to this previously but never expanded upon this
Use of LPDDR5 RAM: the Switch has LPDDR4 RAM that is clocked to 1333MHz in portable mode and offers the bandwidth that it does. The refresh of 2019 uses LPDDR4X who can be faster/ have higher memory bandwidth at the same power draw or have less power draw at a lower clock frequency. Nintendo opted for that.
If Nintendo had the LPDDR5 memory clocked to 666MHz (give it take) in portable mode it should offer even more batter saving but match up with the memory bandwidth of the switch. Or offer the same speed of 1333MHz and result in a 100% increase in memory bandwidth for portable mode.
This would be really helpful for extra juice saving (a technical term for now)
CPU: since it’s most likely the A78, and since it has 8 of them, with 7 for games, they can match it and just temporarily turn the ones the games don’t use (if they don’t adjust anyway to more cores/threads) just turn off for that game.
3A78 @ 1GHz would still offer a noticeable CPU improvement over the 3A57.
You can get less than a watt for 4 A78 cores (3 for games and 1 for the OS if it clocks that low?) I believe, being around 0.46-0.60W just for the CPU.
The other cores would be turned off during this.
And this can offer a 2.39x CPU uplift while being in the same clocks and core config.
GPU would be tricky though as that can be clocked very low but not lower than the switch clocks.
Perhaps… turning some cores off during BC mode or just using a software solution here can help where it doesn’t matter how many SMs are on necessarily….
Needless to say, that the newer architecture by itself would offer either performance uplift that cannot be ignored, or a battery saving that cannot be ignored. Better than the OLED and V2 model for switch games or better performance with the same battery life.
With Switch 2 titles that’s a different discussion altogether with its own clocks and whatnot.
This can’t be overlooked!
I’m just going to throw a number and it’s just me speculating here, but if they have a specific backwards compatibility mode, that’s something like what I described above, they can have instead of 4.5 hours as the minimum they can probably have six hours as the lower end. Instead of nine hours as the maximum, they can probably get away with 12 hours as the maximum battery life that the system can actually have. Again, probably.
please don’t read this as me saying expect that, it’s that it is possible for them to do this and save a lot of energy while also offering a performance uplift that can’t be ignored for BC mode.
Damn, that fucking sucks. Feels good not having enough money for one + import taxes + the fear of not even receiving the product lol.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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I’m sorry, but I feel like we’re losing the plot here, they have to announce this to the investors, that’s what the purpose of the initial reveal was, which was for the investors. The second reveal was in January, and that was for the consumers, and for hands-on previews because they have to send it to news sites to actually get people more interested in the product to upgrade.
i’m sorry again, but I just find it incredibly hard to believe that Nintendo is going to take such a significant change in the hardware and give it so little time to market do the whole hands-on with news sites, reveal to the investors, etc. and then in the span of two months to the public, what is to some a successor and to other people a pro but I’m not gonna get into that. I just find it incredibly hard to believe that they’re gonna do something like this. The only times that they would even do something so minor and small is if it’s literally just a minor upgrade or a minor change. But even with something like the new OLED model, it got a longer life span from initial revealed to its release. I believe the Nintendo switch lite also had a longer span from initial reveal to the release.
But this is more of a noticeable internal change than those.
Doing this is almost guaranteed to cause compatibility issues because of how some games handle controllers between modes.
Some emulation will most likely be required to deal with running the old GPU shaders, but this could probably be localized entirely in the driver.
eK-XL
Rattata
- Pronouns
- He
What are you even talking about? I said no such thing. It sure would be nice if people actually read the things I've said instead of seeing the word 'digital' and going insane. I don't care one way or another if Nintendo goes all digital or not. I'm buying the next handheld regardless I do not think they are doomed if they go physical. I'm just pointing out that there are good reasons to go digital and Nintendo might do it, and if they did what I think that could look like.
Now I get it. You're the person who has been making up dialog for me and having an argument with that made up dialog. I should just step aside and let you two hash this out.
The reveal of Switch for investors was the original project NX reveal, not the October trailer. I don't see what relation the October trailer would have to investors.
You know what the saddest thing about this is? I feel like they would totally do this in retrocompat. mode and instead of using the leftover RAM and cores for say, letting a background application run like discord, they would be completely disabled.
And before you say anything: if you ever seen a hacked switch, you'd know it's possible to have a background application like a media player running while a game plays and bring it up and interact with it from the side home menu.
I don't know exactly if that's a really limited system service that modders managed to integrate well enough or if it's something that would be feasible for third parties to implement too.
But my dream of streaming directly from my switch to discord while chatting with friends will be crushed with a 99% certainty once this new hardware releases.
CullenLX87
Cappy
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- He/Him
Yep, people fail to understand that a ton of kids/teens have the Switch. I'm pretty sure they would buy mostly physical games, because they don't have credit/debit cards. They usually come to game stores with their allowance or job cash to buy games. There's no way it would be digital only.
- Pronouns
- they/them
I…what?
We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this. There is nothing, investor-relations-wise, that makes announcing new hardware in January and releasing it in March or April impossible, or any different from announcing new hardware in January and releasing it in May.
If it releases in late March and their currently published FY sales projections do not take it into account, they have the opportunity to revise their sales projections. But there’s also the possibility that their sales projections do already take this new hardware into account.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Wikipedia says Switch Lite was announced July 10th 2019 and released in the US on September 20th 2019.
Given it would launch very close to the end of the FY or shortly at the start of the new one, by my speculation, it might be okay for investors to have a shorter timeframe too?
I don't see why Nintendo has to do longer timeframes for this when Sony can do it rather short notice too.
This only works, of course, if it's positioned as a new member of the Switch family and not a full on successor.
OP
OP
The only smartphone using 1 TB UFS 3.1 currently is the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 4 at $1259.99. So I imagine 1 TB UFS 3.1 is currently cost prohibitive for Nintendo; and I don't think Nintendo can sell enough units of Nintendo's new hardware that can allow the price of 1 TB UFS 3.1 to drop to the point of no longer being cost prohibitive for Nintendo.
Also, 2 TB UFS 3.1 doesn't exist.
And I can't see Nintendo using a NVMe SSD from a cost and power consumption standpoint.
?
There are no good reasons to do it. The consumer loses and nintendo barely wins anything.
Switch cartridges aren't all that expensive as far as I'm aware. It's cheap, proprietary flash storage. Nothing special.
You'd have a point back in the early 10s/late 00's when indeed this tech would be miles more expensive for double/triple digit GBs. Or if nintendo was selling AAA games for like half the price.
OP
OP
I don't think that's true, considering there are a good number of third party developers that have been using smaller Game Cards and forcing the consumer to download the rest of the game on the microSD card (external expandable storage) or on the eMMC 5.1 (internal flash storage), such as Sypro Reignited Trilogy, etc.
Teal'c
Shriekbat
I think the same.
Memories over 256GB for mobile devices are still too expensive, especially if you want to stay under 600-700$/€.
And I honestly don't think Nintendo will go beyond 128GB, maybe with dual SKUs but I see it as unlikely.
eK-XL
Rattata
- Pronouns
- He
There are games that cost more on the Switch than they did on the xbox or ps4 because cards cost more to make than blurays.
Proprietary storage costs more. There's R&D costs, finding the right partners to manufacture it, etc. If Nintendo sticks with carts and want backwards compatibility they need to design a slot that can take both kinds of carts and design a cart that is capable of delivering data at the speed that modern gaming demands. Totally do-able, but it's a lot more expensive than buying a few servers or printing out digital codes.
mjayer
Moblin
Okay, well that would be a legitimate hurdle to overcome for this scenario. That makes it certainly less likely, however still, I believe a real (disturbing?) possibility.
Another "positive" of going digital only for Switch 2 versions of games will be removing the possibility of a miss-purchase. For example a parent buying a retail Switch 2 version of a game for their child who only has a Switch 1, or vice versa. I just doubt Nintendo want's to bifurcate their Switch library, but would have to somehow to continue physical cards unless they do the Xbox style and force downloads for additional assets for 4k options which is getting quite convoluted.
Spyro trilogy need dowloads in all physical versions on all platforms.
In that specific case, I would say that it is more of an attempt at dmr/something internal to the game, rather than due to space problems.
about the fact that current storage is cheap, but even so there are still companies that requires downloads on their games, it's simple: it can be cheap but if you cut back and use even smaller capacities it's even cheaper.
A 64GB 100+MB/s read SD card on amazon is 10$ (cheaper from china actually). The switch cartridge technology is iirc very similar albeit with a different form factor. I find it very hard to believe that switch cartridges currently are 200% hell, even 150-175% faster than that.
Let alone the fact that switch cartridges are read-only, unlike 3ds ones.
Most indie devs on switch are third parties selling games for ~35 to 50$. But they aren't using 16 nor 32GB carts, their games are most of the time under 10GB so they end up using 8GB or less carts as far as I'm aware.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Manufacturing seems imminent, if not already begun. Linux drivers are out, Orin is well past its initial deliveries. We're not a year+ out from launch. I don't know how Nintendo launches this device in the next 9 months, but it seems obvious they're going to.
It seems like Nintendo can't do a big Next Gen rollout, because they've not been softening the ground for it, and there isn't a lot of time.
It seems like Nintendo can't do a New 3DS drop-it-in-a-direct style launch, because it's a giant upgrade.
So they'll either have to do something that seems wrong, or invent a third thing. A generational leap in an identical form factor is a totally new thing for Nintendo, and there is no way to "solve" the launch strategy puzzle by stringing together precedents. I could make a persuasive argument against any launch timing you like.
"It launches with Tears of the Kingdom, which has upgrades for Drake" - What, and cannibalize Zelda sales? Supply will be limited, and players will hold back till they can get the new device so they can have the full Zelda experience! Extreme backlash from the fans who have been waiting since 2019 for a game and now only have the "lesser" experience
"It launches with TotK, but TotK has almost no upgrades for Drake, same as the other cross-gen Zelda games" - This is a generational leap in technology! Wii had motion controls, Switch had portability - why would you launch hardware with a launch title that doesn't show it off? Why would Zelda be your launch title, if it doesn't play any better on the device you're trying to launch?
"it launches before TotK, Q1 2023" - When? And with what title? Announce in January for, what, a March release? That's 6-8 weeks of lead time, that's nothing. What could possibly be the launch title that we don't know about? How is there a big title in H1 2023 that isn't ground to a paste by Zelda, or we haven't heard of? You're saying there is a 3D Mario that is going to go out with 6 weeks of warning? Or maybe no title at all?
"it launches after TotK" - When do they announce it then? E3, launch in October? If you're going to wait till the Switch is 6.5 years old to announce new hardware, why not just do an ordinary generational style launch, get the time pressure off, set yourself up for success.
"It announces March but launches in September, with a nice 6 month promo window" - again, you're going to just launch Zelda, the biggest title of the year halfway through the promo window of your next hardware?
"It announces tomorrow, launches in February" HOLIDAY SALES!!!!
And so on. I have no idea what Nintendo intends, though I'm having fun playing the game, I can counterfactual all day long. We know so much about the SOC, but the marketing plan is clearly missing pieces. Guessing Nintendo's software launch strategy is tricky enough, but we know there are at least 11 games in some level of Drake dev for 18 months+ and we only have hints for what two of them might be.
It seems like Nintendo can't do a big Next Gen rollout, because they've not been softening the ground for it, and there isn't a lot of time.
It seems like Nintendo can't do a New 3DS drop-it-in-a-direct style launch, because it's a giant upgrade.
So they'll either have to do something that seems wrong, or invent a third thing. A generational leap in an identical form factor is a totally new thing for Nintendo, and there is no way to "solve" the launch strategy puzzle by stringing together precedents. I could make a persuasive argument against any launch timing you like.
"It launches with Tears of the Kingdom, which has upgrades for Drake" - What, and cannibalize Zelda sales? Supply will be limited, and players will hold back till they can get the new device so they can have the full Zelda experience! Extreme backlash from the fans who have been waiting since 2019 for a game and now only have the "lesser" experience
"It launches with TotK, but TotK has almost no upgrades for Drake, same as the other cross-gen Zelda games" - This is a generational leap in technology! Wii had motion controls, Switch had portability - why would you launch hardware with a launch title that doesn't show it off? Why would Zelda be your launch title, if it doesn't play any better on the device you're trying to launch?
"it launches before TotK, Q1 2023" - When? And with what title? Announce in January for, what, a March release? That's 6-8 weeks of lead time, that's nothing. What could possibly be the launch title that we don't know about? How is there a big title in H1 2023 that isn't ground to a paste by Zelda, or we haven't heard of? You're saying there is a 3D Mario that is going to go out with 6 weeks of warning? Or maybe no title at all?
"it launches after TotK" - When do they announce it then? E3, launch in October? If you're going to wait till the Switch is 6.5 years old to announce new hardware, why not just do an ordinary generational style launch, get the time pressure off, set yourself up for success.
"It announces March but launches in September, with a nice 6 month promo window" - again, you're going to just launch Zelda, the biggest title of the year halfway through the promo window of your next hardware?
"It announces tomorrow, launches in February" HOLIDAY SALES!!!!
And so on. I have no idea what Nintendo intends, though I'm having fun playing the game, I can counterfactual all day long. We know so much about the SOC, but the marketing plan is clearly missing pieces. Guessing Nintendo's software launch strategy is tricky enough, but we know there are at least 11 games in some level of Drake dev for 18 months+ and we only have hints for what two of them might be.
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
I'm not so sure if this is just so black and white, for one going by this Notebookcheck article on PS5"s Oberon Plus APU on 6nm,
"Subsequently, Angstronomics has discovered that the latest PS5 revision also contains a new AMD APU. Codenamed Oberon Plus, the APU replaces Oberon APUs that Sony has used until now in all PlayStation 5 SKUs. According to the website, AMD has built Oberon Plus around TSMC's N6 process, which provides 18.8% greater transistor density than the 7 nm node on which Oberon is based. In practical terms, Oberon Plus has a 15% smaller die than Oberon, measuring in at 260 mm² while maintaining its 10,600 million transistor count."
It would seem that while TSMC's 6nm and 7nm are more energy efficient, but Nvidia are actually getting a higher transistor density on Samsung's 8N process. I'm not totally sure what the Van Gogh in the Steam Deck measures out to, but the only figure I could find was 2.4 billion transistors for the 163mm² die. Both Sony and Microsoft on TSMC's 7nm allows for higher clocks, but Nintendo in this situation would greatly benefit from a more dense SoC that can fit into a smaller form factor with lower clocks.
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Virgin ReddDreadtheLead versus Chad Oldpuck
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