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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
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No, the form factor and one solid unit instead of joycons. D-pad also. Looks ergonomic.
Drake Lite tho
10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
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At least give us a left joycon with a d-pad.
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Aren't you satisfied with discussing and speculating about one unanounced hardware?
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
What about Switch Drake Plus which should release in 2027? Please keep up with me.
CocaFormula
Cappy
I mean, of course you can argue on the "definitely" part, but the current state would point that way. It's not a question of time of the market, but Switch currently is still VERY strong, has a lot of games recently released with DLCs planned very well into 2023, possibly other huge exclusives already announced (MP4, Pikmin) later next year and beyond, etc...
More importantly, there is NO WAY Nintendo can stay on the market only with a premium 400€+ console ditching its cheaper alternatives. All signs point to Switch staying strong for a while more, and if Drake is launching early next year it will be sold along it.
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Setting a bot to play a game (not even necessarily well) and collect data to build a few KB of data is resource-intensive now?
And again, what hobbyists can do and what Nintendo can do are VERY different things. What it took the Yuzu devs years to achieve with far fewer people is somehow too much to ask for the people who make the hardware and know it so well they can assist 3rd parties in how to bend it to their will, given the same amount of time. If hobbyists can do it, there’s no “if” involved there.
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"If" aren't just technical stuff, you know. For example there's the question if Nintendo sees the need to something like this, contrary to hobbyists who have an active desire to do it.
Then there's stuff like how DLSS is actually integrated in Nintendo's pipeline and so on.
Just because some people in their free time can do something doesn't mean companies doing the same.
All i say is, don't expect Switch games without patches seeing any big improvements or any at all, outside of those with unlocked framerate who benefit from the power jump alone.
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Tbf, my concern over marketing it is not about marketing itself, but about the projected life of the device - a Switch Super Duper is going to have a good life, no doubt about it seeing how much they are spending on this, but... if it is called Switch 2, let's say, that in and of itself is a real statement that the device is gonna be around us for much, much more time than Super Duper (because, you know, eventually a Switch successor is going to come unless this is the successor).
Apopheniac
Monolith Soft action game truther
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What is the argument for Drake being considered a mid-gen upgrade/revision and not a next-gen device/successor? Is it just inertia from years of "Switch Pro" talk? The reasoning for the former that I've seen seems concerned mostly with compatibility with existing Switch products (which is a fair concern to have as a customer, but next-gen systems can have BC) and possible marketing strategies from Nintendo, which are purely speculative and wouldn't align with what we know about the Drake (releasing ~six years after the Switch with significantly higher specs).
nintendo wanting to market it as such. everything else is inherent to their decisions with the hardware. compatibility with switch products would happen regardless of Drake being a successor or a mid-gen upgrade
DLSS won't have any bearing on BC. that's a game-level thing, not an OS-level thing
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
It would be nice to have it on the anniversary but am sorry to tell you that on that day, Mario + Rabbids 2 releases.
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Right, but the PS1 was very strong in 1999 and 2000, the PS2 was very strong in 2005 and 2006…it’s quite normal for a successor console to come out while its predecessor is still strong. That’s desirable, I think.
As far as hardware sales go, Switch is now (finally) on the decline. So it’s not like it isn’t time for a successor.
Drake being a Switch successor doesn’t mean that the current models will be “ditched” and Nintendo will not offer any cheaper hardware…? I don’t know where we’re getting this weird idea from all of a sudden. The Wii U was the successor to the Wii and Nintendo still sold Wii systems, even going so far as to make a cut-down Wii mini. They sold NESes and Famicoms (including a special redesigned model and controller) after the SNES/SFC came out, and they continued to sell those (again, with a redesigned model) after the N64 came out. They’ve always done this.
10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
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Honestly, it's mostly people thinking they won't cut off support for OG Switch when Drake comes out so it's a "Pro". To me, the specs alone make it a Switch 2 and it will get it's exclusive third party and first party games come 2024 and beyond I think. It's the replacement to the Switch.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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ubisoft is ruining my life with their crappy games
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I still big time doubt they announce this, even in PR release form, in 2022 if it's launching sometime March to May 2023.
I know they did with Switch, but there's a big difference between Nintendo's holiday season in 2016 and 2022. Most importantly, compared to 2016 they actually have one in 2022. ^^
I know they did with Switch, but there's a big difference between Nintendo's holiday season in 2016 and 2022. Most importantly, compared to 2016 they actually have one in 2022. ^^
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Split joy-con mode is god tier, why lie? My hands have never been more comfortable while gaming
10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
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People always seem make the argument one of “they totally could announce Drake this year without tanking their holiday sales because X, Y, and Z” and I’m just like, sure, I’ll concede all of that, but why would Nintendo want to announce it this year? Why is that optimal as opposed to waiting and announcing it in January or whatever? What’s the rush? They have huge heavy-hitting software this fall, why is it better for them to take attention away from that?
The answer to me is, pretty clearly, that it’s not.
I want them to announce this thing this year. I want them to announce it tomorrow. But that doesn’t mean it’s in Nintendo’s interests to do so.
Aether
Tingle
Hm, not fond of that design. a) the edges look unconfortable, the color is boring as hell (to me), and while i would like more metal/magnesium, im not shure if metal buttons are confortable. if its just silver color, then im really not a fan, silver colored plastic always sems cheap to me, especially when i tgets scratches...My dream Switch Ultra is Drake in this shell (and the joy-con sticks swapped out for hall-effect sensors):
(Its 100% okay people like that, i just for myself hope that thats not the design =D)
A slight revision of the joy cons WOULD be aprechiated.
CocaFormula
Cappy
Conventionally speaking, I would define a console a successor if the previous model is discontinued and it's the default platform for any new first-party game. PS5 might have blurred the line a bit but most of the precedents follow this path.
I don't see neither of these happening with a Drake launch in H1, so I don't know why you would define it a successor, until it is proven otherwise (which might also happen down the line). It's not about marketing, it's about literally being just an extension of the current system.
I think you are pushed to argue to the contrary only because you expect the power gap to be huge (which tbf was usually an established criteria to define a successor as well)
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Deck's 1280x800 is also a different aspect ratio. Definitely don't expect Switch to break with TV's 16:9 standard. 900p would leave me wondering why stop there instead of going to 1080p (which would work better with games stuck at 720 anyway).
If you're doing your job as a hardware manufacturer well, there should never be a period lacking such games.
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My friend, i want them to release it tomorrow let alone announce it in 2022. And i was Team 2022 for the longest time, but at this point, i don't see it happen.
And yeah, they have maybe the most exciting mainline Pokemon game in years ready for holidays. They reap this like Scrooge McDuck and then announce Drake early 2023 to reap that one too from enthusiasts.
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Okay, then basically no console is a successor, even ones that are labeled “2” or “3.”
Apopheniac
Monolith Soft action game truther
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Is there any reason to believe that Drake wouldn't fulfill these criteria to an extent we've seen with Nintendo consoles and handhelds in the past? We don't know which and how many first-party games will be developed for it, nor do we know the extent to which Nintendo will scale back on Switch development. That's all speculative and there's nothing to directly indicate anything either way.
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For me it's a combination of things.
- Iwata talking about having a platform with multiple devices but one development/software environment, wanting to be like Android/iOS, not wanting to "start from zero" every gen
- Switch support nowhere near ending, they've explicitly made it clear that Switch support will extend at the very least until the end of 2024
- Furukawa repeatedly claiming that the Switch is "in the middle of its life"
- MS and Sony basically abandoning the idea of generations too (Sony says it didn't do so but their actions tell a different story)
- Every rumor about this device has referred to it as another Switch, not a brand new device with a new concept or focus
Basically, what we're seeing from all of the available evidence is that this will be an iterative upgrade successor. Not a traditional next-gen device, but basically a higher tech version of the same device. Traditionally Nintendo has treated such things as "revisions/upgrades" and not "next-gen devices". Their next-gen devices usually have a new form factor, new input method, new gimmick or hook, new physical media, new branding, etc. What we're seeing here is none of that.
MP!
Like Like
that's up to sony and their money hatting addiction
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Even though I still entertain a 2022 announcement as a possibility I think ultimately you are right. There are two primary benefits to a 2022 reveal.
1. Get ahead of leaks from manufacturing so Nintendo can 100% control the narrative.
2. Have a 6 month marketing cycle to build interest and allow third parties time to market their games.
For the first point, there isn't actually that much value in getting ahead of leaks. Nintendo has a long history of just flat out denying any rumours or just plain lying about the existence of products so they can continue to do the same with impunity and the majority public will continue to believe them.
The second point is overkill in the age of the Internet. They could reasonably do a three month marketing window for this product and have a successful launch. Just look at how they operate their Nintendo directs for software, most games being announced in a direct release within 3 months of the direct. I expect they will do the same with the hardware this time around and supplement it with TV adverts in the run up to release. You could argue people need time to save but we live in the age of cheap credit, and with it being a premium device I suspect that's how most will be paid for.
Happy to be proven wrong, but I don't see the real tangible benefit to a 2022 reveal and 2023 release any more.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I didn't say that - however, there is a term for that in behavioral economics called "satisficing" because it is real. You can see it in every single thread in this forum when a new product is announced "ARGGG Nintendo I was just saving up to buy a new Foo, but the Foo OLED looks sooo good" six weeks later. "Hey Fami I broke down and got a new Foo, wanted to wait for the Foo OLED but I just couldn't stop waiting to play Zeldafield: Chronicles Y."
That is also not what I said. I was specifically comparing the drop off across quarters. Lemme show you the data
| Quarter | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (ending Jun 30) | 1.1 million | 0.94 million | 0.95 million | 1% increase in 2017 |
| Q2 (ending Sep 30) | 1.29 million | 1.76 million | 1.90 million | 7% increase in 2017 |
| Q3 (ending Dec 31) | 3.59 million | 3.73 million | 3.01 million | Switch reveal, 20% drop |
| Q4 (ending March 31) | 0.91 million | 0.82 million | 0.55 million | 23% drop |
Notice how the individual quarters look a lot like each other? Outside the holiday quarter (Q3), the numbers are so tiny a marginal motion in sales can alter the percentages, but there is still nothing in the double digits, quarter-to-equivalent-quarter, across the entire 3 year period, until the Switch is announced. At the lowest of the low period for Nintendo revenue, that would have been a ~200 million dollar loss during the holiday period. Nintendo clearly thought it was worth it - not surprising, since sales were so bad, that tanking them was on the table in order to get to where they needed to be.
Yes you are correct, there is something to balance against the knock on effect of sales dropping in the wake of the announcement. Many things in fact. I am not denying it. I am simply saying that "announcing a new product affects sales" which is not only common sense, but is greatly supported by the data.
There is a reason Apple launches their phones the way they do. Time between announcement and purchase is short to minimize the window of depressed sales. Launches are on a regular clock, so buyers aren't surprised by launch announcements. Previous gen is repositioned as an introductory model, accessing a new line of customers at the same time that margins on the old product are improving.
It is in consideration, or at least, I'm considering it
But in order to consider it you have to be honest about the tradeoffs, which means acknowledging that an announcement will have an immediate impact on sales, that the biggest sales period of the year is coming up. I don't think it's impossible that Nintendo announces this year but my question is why would they? I think it's entirely reasonable to assume that there are positives that would overcome any knock on effects on holiday sales - so what are they? What is the compelling argument for announcing in the next 30 days?
Well, it'll be holiday season in the US in 64 days, and right now there are people in this very thread - the most informed place on the matter in the English speaking Internet - saying "2024 at the earliest", so I'm not sure that's particularly relevant.
Nintendo is unlikely to make marketing decisions on a dime. They've got partners who have been briefed on marketing plans, software developers with products to launch who have been promised a marketing push, retailers who have allocated physical space for marquees that still need to be printed and shipped to them. If a major leak puts the device in the news such that it does surface, Nintendo is still unlikely to move the announcement from, say, January to October because of it.
Here is what I believe. The primary driver of when Nintendo announces isn't the holiday season, or leaks about the device, or anything public at all but internal information about production and the readiness of partners.
Link_enfant
Fashion Dreamer
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Ultimately it only depends on what type of marketing they're going for and the planned release date, there are good and legitimate arguments for both a 2022 and early 2023 reveal.
Sol
Moblin
I feel this will be positioned and marketed as a true successor by Nintendo (ie, "Switch 2") for two primary reasons:
1. It will release at the 6 year mark of the original Switch. 6 years is around the time when Nintendo historically introduces a new platform (they usually do it in 5 years)
2. The SoC itself. This isn't a Tegra X1 on a smaller node with bumped up clocks and more RAM - it's an entirely new custom SoC with significant advancements in both raw power and technological features. When one looks at the sheer power differential between Drake and a Tegra X1, along with the new features it contains (DLSS, RT, etc), it seems quite evident that this isn't merely a Switch revision, but rather an entirely new system.
I also think there's a decent chance this system contains other new features that haven't been discussed much, like a rear facing camera for AR and new Joy-Con tech.
Dizzle
Bob-omb
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What first party Switch games other than BotW (an exception for obvious reasons) were also released for the Wii U? I think what breaks the mold from the previous definition of a successor, and what we've been seeing with the current generation, is a cross gen period of indefinite length.
So sure, the PS5 is clearly a successor. But something about the nature of generations has changed such that it doesn't mean what it used to. I think that's all that's being said.
As usual, people are pretending to talk about industry trends but they're really talking about themselves. Do I need a buy to this console in order to play the latest Mario, or can I wait?
Edit: Nah, what I've said is way too simplistic. Cross Gen periods aren't new. I still think there's been a shift, and that's what actually undergirds a lot of the successor semantics conversation.
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Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
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This is a hilariously bad take when nobody knows how they'll market this thing yet and I've stated multiple times that it makes no sense to ME.
Instro
Like Like
The main reason to do so would be to preempt leaks from production. If it's not coming till May it's probably less of an issue, but if it's coming sooner it's likely the device could leak entirely before the year is out. For example, DF had full retail specs of the original Switch back in December 2016. A similar situation for Nintendo would be not great if they have not even mentioned a new device is coming by then.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Nate had said he heard Super Switch as a name being tossed around. This was back in May 2021.
May be the final name, may not. Either way - it being even brainstormed is cool.
Imo, helps with the communication of "this is a more powerful next-gen upgrade" without explicitly saying it.
I think there was a list of brainstormed names for the Wii that was leaked, that included Super GameCube and GameCube Ultra. Wish I could find it.
May be the final name, may not. Either way - it being even brainstormed is cool.
Imo, helps with the communication of "this is a more powerful next-gen upgrade" without explicitly saying it.
I think there was a list of brainstormed names for the Wii that was leaked, that included Super GameCube and GameCube Ultra. Wish I could find it.
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We already have more or less the full specs now, barring clock speeds. We know much, much more about this than we did the Switch at the time.
Gotdatmoneyy
Shriekbat
No console is a successor under that logic. When the PS3 released it was regularly being outsold by the PS2 and was fighting for its life against the gba at times. Back in the day cross generation games also just didn't make sense because the gap in hardware was massive amd architectures were wildly different.
Calling it a Pro or a Switch 2 is irrelevent to the software that will be released. Switch isn't going to be discontinued until the sales drop off a cliff. PS4 only got discontinued like 6 months ago.
Instro
Like Like
I don't disagree, but that's only due to the Nvidia hack, which Nintendo could not have foreseen or done anything about. Even on the internet that hack is rarely discussed outside of this forum, and has never had major reporting on it. An article going up from DF/Eurogamer or some other big outlet detailing all of that plus clock speeds, information about unique features, etc, would be dramatically different, which is what occured in the latter months of 2016 during the run up to the Switch.
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