StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[mjayer]

OKAY! Everyone play the game with me! (Especially the tech informed, unlike myself)

The only thing we don't know at all yet is the nm of the SOC, which will determine clocks and ultimately the real power level (Goku vs Krillin) of The Drake. So let's do a super clean and simplified list of nm=docked specs for fun.

Here's mine:

8nm Samsung = 1.5TF
5nm Samsung = 2 TF
7 nm TSMC = 2.5 TF
6 nm TSMC = 3 TF
5 nm TSMC = 3.5 TF
4 nm TSMC = 4.20 TF
3 nm TSMC = 6.9 TF (lol maybe 5.5?)


So big range! Did i miss any or list one that should be here?

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

A $400 cloud-only handheld?

Even cloud editions are not Switch exclusive anymore : (

 

[Herb Alpert]

Don't forget Nintendo will probably underclock like there's no tomorrow

 

[Gay Bowser]

7 nm TSMC = 2.5 TF
6 nm TSMC = 3 TF

TSMC N7 and N6 have essentially identical performance characteristics; the only benefit TSMC touts for N6 over N7 is increased transistor density.

 

[Skittzo]

Don't forget Nintendo will probably underclock like there's no tomorrow

Nobody is forgetting that this is a handheld and will need to be clocked as such. However for BC they have a lower bound to the clocks below which it might get very messy or downright impossible to run existing Switch games.

And at that lower bound we're still looking at a very nice upgrade.

 

[Apopheniac]

Basically, what we're seeing from all of the available evidence is that this will be an iterative upgrade successor. Not a traditional next-gen device, but basically a higher tech version of the same device. Traditionally Nintendo has treated such things as "revisions/upgrades" and not "next-gen devices". Their next-gen devices usually have a new form factor, new input method, new gimmick or hook, new physical media, new branding, etc. What we're seeing here is none of that.

In other words, it seems more like the type of successor we've seen from Sony and Microsoft and not what Nintendo has typically done that leads people to downplay it. Though we haven't necessarily ruled out any additional gimmickry at this stage.

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

Any exclusive software is going to have an install base of 0 units whether they say this is Switch 2 or Switch + or whatever. Anyone making software that can only run on this thing are not going to not port it based on positioning. I don't understand why this is difficult to accept.

 

[Sol]

Don't forget Nintendo will probably underclock like there's no tomorrow

People here have done the math - even if we assume Switch docked and portable clocks, we're still looking at a ~1.4 TF system in portable and ~2.2 TF when docked. And that's all before DLSS.

And the Switch clocks seem like the absolute minimum. So, even with the lowest expected clocks, this will be an incredibly capable machine and a massive increase in power over the current Switch.

 

[kvetcha]

Don't forget Nintendo will probably underclock like there's no tomorrow

I imagine they'll underclock exactly as much as they need to to hit their battery/heat requirements. It's not like they do it for fun.

 

[Serif]

There's no point of investing in development of a large GPU if it's not being used and clocked appropriately for performance gains.

I'm not going to arbitrarily lower my expectations.

 

[mjayer]

Don't forget Nintendo will probably underclock like there's no tomorrow

Well then show me your nm = X TF list!

TSMC N7 and N6 have essentially identical performance characteristics; the only benefit TSMC touts for N6 over N7 is increased transistor density.

Okay cool, where's your list at?

People here have done the math - even if we assume Switch docked and portable clocks, we're still looking at a ~1.4 TF system in portable and ~2.2 TF when docked. And that's all before DLSS.

And the Switch clocks seem like the absolute minimum. So, even with the lowest expected clocks, this will be an incredibly capable machine and a massive increase in power over the current Switch.

Those seem reasonable, but what node are you estimating those numbers on? How about making a list of your expectations of each node?

I really want to see ZOMBL and Thraktor's lists.

 

[kvetcha]

Those seem reasonable, but what node are you estimating those numbers on? How about making a list of your expectations of each node?

In this particular case, the node doesn't matter, because these are the minimum possible clocks regardless of node. Improved nodes will just allow higher clocking at similar TDP.

 

[bixente]

I also think there's a decent chance this system contains other new features that haven't been discussed much, like a rear facing camera for AR and new Joy-Con tech.

And Streetpass 2

 

[Deleted member 887]

There's no point of investing in development of a large GPU if it's not being used and clocked appropriately for performance gains.

Clocked appropriately for performance gains includes the absolute minimum clocks. At 300MHz, it's still twice the TFLOPS of Switch, same for the CPU

I'm not going to arbitrarily lower my expectations.

No one is asking you to, but let us consider things like "physics" and "sub 1 hour battery ilfe"

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

Clocks lower than the original Switch would be odd even at 8nm. I can't see much reason to use that many shader cores just to clock it really low. At a certain point the low clocks are more detrimental to the overall performance of the chip as opposed to just going with a smaller higher clocked chip. And high clocks in this context would be at OG Switch levels. I dunno.

The amount of shader cores suggests to me this thing has at least Switch GPU clocks and CPU clocks areound 1.5gHz or so to get a balanced performance profile.

I dont know node scaling at all but even at 8nm it just seems very unlikely they would be putting clocks lower than base Switch on the GPU.

 

[Raccoon]

there are eventually diminishing returns with underclocking

transistors are expensive, they ought to use them

 

[Serif]

Clocked appropriately for performance gains includes the absolute minimum clocks. At 300MHz, it's still twice the TFLOPS of Switch, same for the CPU

No one is asking you to, but let us consider things like "physics" and "sub 1 hour battery ilfe"

I didn't say anything about not considering the minimum clocks? I'm responding to the sentiment that Nintendo will underclock this device like there's "no tomorrow", but that's an arbitrary statement compared to the analysis of a theoretical minimum, which will still be an upgrade.

 

[Selarmor]

Calling it a Pro or a Switch 2 is irrelevent to the software that will be released. Switch isn't going to be discontinued until the sales drop off a cliff. PS4 only got discontinued like 6 months ago.

Sony/Microsoft/Apple have spent the last decade teaching billions of consumers that Pro/Plus/X refers to an upgraded model for which one can buy software as a single SKU that will run on both models. Whether Nintendo agrees with that is irrelevant; it's the reality of those terms. If Drake is going to have exclusive games or separate SKUs for cross-gen games, it's not going to be called some variant of "Pro". Its status as a successor will be clear in its branding/marketing. The easiest way of achieving that, while also communicating that it can run Switch games, is calling it Switch 2.

But it's Nintendo so who knows.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Reminder that Nintendo overclocked the GameCube the first time and sold it to you as a new Gen system

And overclocked it again and sold it to you as an actual generation leak system (it was in the GPU side, CPU side it was like what MS did for the One X at best)

Do not assume they’ll clock it this way or that way, or that they’re afraid to give you a GameCube on weight loss and a TV remote as a new Gen system.

Or a fisher price tablet.

It’s not that simple.



On another note…. I find a H1 reveal and an H1 release to be very odd personally….

maybe, but someone who buys a regular switch on holliday will not buy another model 3 months later,announcing early people can hold their money

Mmm, I don’t know about that. If you’re buying a switch now, which is almost 6 years old, you are pretty much a different type of consumer. It’s like the people who bought a PS4 in 2018 or 2019 when the PS5 was gonna be released the following year or in two years. You are a different type of demographic and not really the core or main brunt of the platforms force in consumer spending.


Like people were buying a Nintendo 3DS even up to 2018 to early 2019, despite the Nintendo switch being out for a year or two at that point. I know it was only a few comparatively, but if you are buying into a platform that old, you are pretty much the one that’s trying to take advantage of the end of life sales that happen on the platform.

Can we finally discuss the flagship colour the new hardware will launch with. OG was grey. Oled Model was White.

Wonder if theyll keep the neon.

Atomic Purple for fear factor

 

[RedSpring]

Don't forget Nintendo will probably underclock like there's no tomorrow

They will clock it appropriately for its form factor and usage like every other console in existence

 

[Skittzo]

On another note…. I find a H1 reveal and an H1 release to be very odd personally….

Why is that?

 

[Deleted member 2551]

This is a hilariously bad take when nobody knows how they'll market this thing yet and I've stated multiple times that it makes no sense to ME.

It wasn't really at you. It's something that has happened on this thread since page 1.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I didn't say anything about not considering the minimum clocks? I'm responding to the sentiment that Nintendo will underclock this device like there's "no tomorrow", but that's an arbitrary statement compared to the analysis of a theoretical minimum, which will still be an upgrade.

Sorry, there wasn't a reply and I lost the thread of the conversation. My fault!

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Why is that?

I don’t know, just for me it just seems weird. Like who out here announces something and then releases it within the same half of the year? Has that happened before in the video game scene?

Even with the switch it was one Half of a year and released in the next half.

(H2 2016 and H1 2017 respectively)

 

[ShaunSwitch]

Is it worth entertaining clocks lower than OG switch clocks? With a much more advanced node comes more headroom for clocks despite the increase in cores. We see this in the consumer GPU market with new GPUs occupying roughly the same space as their predecessors but boasting more cores and higher clocks at the same time and the cooling on GPUs in PCs haven't really changed much in recent years.

I think if Nintendo wants a battery life more like Mariko and less like Erista then sure, maybe they use the OG 460mhz switch portable GPU clock. But for docked mode they are going to make the absolute most out of that big GPU by clocking it right to the point where it doesn't throttle with its given cooling solution.

My guess, pulled right from my ass based on guestimation for minimum clocks at a given node is.

6nm - 460mhz portable, 900mhz docked - 1.41 TFLOPS portable, 2.76 TFLOPS docked.

4nm - 460mhz portable, 1.1 ghz docked, 3.38 TFLOPS.

Personally don't think we will see much departure from that OG switch 460mhz clock in portable for battery life, but in docked I think they will push it to 1-1.2GHZ, especially if they are targeting higher than HD resolutions and the screen on the switch is still 720p.

 

[kvetcha]

I don’t know, just for me it just seems weird. Like who out here announces something and then releases it within the same half of the year? Has that happened before in the video game scene?

Even with the switch it was one Half of a year and released in the next half.

(H2 2016 and H1 2017 respectively)

Similar time gap, though. If it helps, you could view it as a Q4 2022 reveal and a Q1 2023 release.

 

[YolkFolk]

From the moment we met you could see that I was filled with desire…

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

Sony/Microsoft/Apple have spent the last decade teaching billions of consumers that Pro/Plus/X refers to an upgraded model for which one can buy software as a single SKU that will run on both models. Whether Nintendo agrees with that is irrelevant; it's the reality of those terms. If Drake is going to have exclusive games or separate SKUs for cross-gen games, it's not going to be called some variant of "Pro". Its status as a successor will be clear in its branding/marketing. The easiest way of achieving that, while also communicating that it can run Switch games, is calling it Switch 2.

But it's Nintendo so who knows.

It literally doesn't matter what they name it (obviously excluding stupid ass names like the Wii U) as long as the communication is simple and to the point.

Sometimes I wonder if people think consumers can't parse simple information. We had a company that literally decided to name their 3rd system the Xbox One. As long as they just show software difference and say what the plan is consumers can handle it.

 

[maniacmaison]

And Streetpass 2

I miss these kind of gimmicks. I wish they came back!

 

[7threst]

For all yall that need a hug, you are doing great and please, believe in yourself! You are awesome!

 

[BlueKing]

And Streetpass 2

I'm not sure the form of the Switch really lends itself to Streepass.

With the 3DS it was small and you could carry it in your pocket, and it was a tough little thing, the Switch is huge and to be honest much more fragile, or at the least more at risk of damage. People are scared to take the Switch out of the dock, let alone carry it all over town.

Can you imagine a bunch of kids all carrying their Switch's about and with all the care that a kid can show at that age?

 

[Simba1]

I don’t know, just for me it just seems weird. Like who out here announces something and then releases it within the same half of the year? Has that happened before in the video game scene?

Even with the switch it was one Half of a year and released in the next half.

(H2 2016 and H1 2017 respectively)

To be fair, time between announcement and release for consoles is shorter and shorter,
also here we don't have completely new platform while current one is dying or already is dead.
Current Switch models will keep selling and they will continue getting Nintendo support regardless (at least for some time) launch of new hardware,
so Nintendo doesnt need more than only few months from reveling to launch, it would probably be sold out hole 1st year in any case.

Current Switch was in totally different situation, when current Switch was announced Wii U was already dead and was discontinued only few months after Switch reveal. On other hand, current Switch units are still selling very good, I mean its still selling better than PS5.

 

[TurtleRock]

I don’t know, just for me it just seems weird. Like who out here announces something and then releases it within the same half of the year? Has that happened before in the video game scene?

Even with the switch it was one Half of a year and released in the next half.

(H2 2016 and H1 2017 respectively)

Reveal to release pipeline has gotten shorter this gen with Nintendo.

Also October Switch reveal to launch was just under 6 months. I would argue they needed to reveal in October to have the concept in people’s minds before blowing the lid off in January.

People understand the Switch concept now. There is no need to get it on people’s mind. They can focus solely on showing off why someone would want this particular version of the Switch.

And finally, if they reveal in January and launch it with Zelda that’s about 5 months, one less month than the original Switch reveal to launch window. I think they’ll be fine.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don’t know, just for me it just seems weird. Like who out here announces something and then releases it within the same half of the year? Has that happened before in the video game scene?

Even with the switch it was one Half of a year and released in the next half.

(H2 2016 and H1 2017 respectively)

December 31 and January 1 are also in different year halves technically. But Switch went from initial announcement (0 months) to big blowout (2.8 months) to release (4.4 months). Something like... January 15, April 10, May 29 would match that exactly.

 

[Selarmor]

It literally doesn't matter what they name it (obviously excluding stupid ass names like the Wii U) as long as the communication is simple and to the point.

As someone who's worked directly with product and marketing teams on billion dollar consumer electronic products, witnessed first hand the sheer amount of time and diligence that goes into coming up with a product's name, and worked on a product whose name ended being <product> Pro (and therefore had this exact discussion in a professional context), this is just wrong. Even ignoring that, I would argue that "Switch Pro" is, as you put it, an obviously stupid ass name. There are absolutely millions of consumers who will wander into Best Buy, see a game case that says Switch Pro, equate that to PS4 Pro/iPhone Pro/etc, and think it will work on their kid's Switch. The only way to mitigate that would be to use up valuable box art real estate to say something like "ONLY on Nintendo Switch Pro", which marketing would want to avoid.

Maybe I'm wrong, and again it's Nintendo so who knows, but using "Pro" or any other term that's commonly used to designate a product as an upgraded version of a base model, goes against way too many industry rules.

 

[Serif]

The only way to mitigate that would be to use up valuable box art real estate to say something like "ONLY on Nintendo Switch Pro", which marketing would want to avoid.

I personally don't like the pro name either. But for a potential "Switch Ultra" or "Super Switch" exclusive, I'd imagine the logo and coloring on the box would be different. Like the Game Boy Advance and new 3DS box art (which also had "only for" on them). So it wouldnt necessarily take up more space.

 

[Selarmor]

I personally don't like the pro name either. But for a potential "Switch Ultra" or "Super Switch" exclusive, I'd imagine the logo and coloring on the box would be different. Like the Game Boy Advance and new 3DS box art (which also had "only for" on them). So it wouldnt necessarily take up more space.

"Super Switch" I could see (not because I think it's a good name, but because nothing else in the world uses that naming scheme, so there'd be no confusion), but "Switch Ultra" probably falls into the category of suffixes I mentioned in my post.

The thing is, you DO want to leverage the Switch logo and branding to some extent, while also clearly delineating it from it's predecessor. That why I think Switch 2 is the best of both worlds. It's not very Nintendo-like, but if Nintendo could buck tradition with the Switch itself, I think they should with the naming of its successor as well.

 

[Gay Bowser]

I don’t know, just for me it just seems weird. Like who out here announces something and then releases it within the same half of the year? Has that happened before in the video game scene?

The Xbox 360 was officially announced (on a star-studded MTV special, which is the most 2005 thing ever) in May and released in November, about half a year later.

The PS4 Pro was officially announced in September and released in November. The DSi and New 3DS systems were also released very quickly after their announcements.

So there’s precedent. Nintendo’s partners know about the system in advance, and that’s the most important thing.

 

[Serif]

"Super Switch" I could see (not because I think it's a good name, but because nothing else in the world uses that naming scheme, so there'd be no confusion), but "Switch Ultra" probably falls into the category of suffixes I mentioned in my post.

How does Switch Advance sound?

 

[Deleted member 887]

Is it worth entertaining clocks lower than OG switch clocks? With a much more advanced node comes more headroom for clocks despite the increase in cores. We see this in the consumer GPU market with new GPUs occupying roughly the same space as their predecessors but boasting more cores and higher clocks at the same time and the cooling on GPUs in PCs haven't really changed much in recent years.

I thought about it in my previous post about running one clock for backwards compat, and another for Drake based games. The power curve for Ampere gets real shaky in the 300Mhz realm, so the question becomes how tight the power budget is, and how much savings can be made in that realm. The answers, ballpark, are "Very tight" and "Not much" respectively.

I think if Nintendo wants a battery life more like Mariko and less like Erista then sure, maybe they use the OG 460mhz switch portable GPU clock. But for docked mode they are going to make the absolute most out of that big GPU by clocking it right to the point where it doesn't throttle with its given cooling solution.

My guess, pulled right from my ass based on guestimation for minimum clocks at a given node is.

6nm - 460mhz portable, 900mhz docked - 1.41 TFLOPS portable, 2.76 TFLOPS docked.

4nm - 460mhz portable, 1.1 ghz docked, 3.38 TFLOPS.

Orin has a config roughly like this, with 8 TPCs (instead of Drake 6) and running at 1.3 GHz instead of 1.1. It draws 60W, and the gap between it and it's 40/50W configs is basically just GPU/CPU clocks. 1GHz seems like an absolute hail-mary clock speed, with a dock fan the size of a jet engine. I don't think it's beyond the pale, but I am deeply dubious.

But honestly, when I think of the minimum and the maximum config for this thing, I don't see a huge gap, or anything that makes me salivate. 1.7GHz octo core CPUs? Nice. 2.3GHz octo-core CPUs? Nice. [email protected] TFLOPS? Nice. 1GHz@3TFLOPS? Nice. 8GB? Nice. 12GB? Nice.

It's all nice! 720p screen? Nice. 1080p screen? Nice! OG Switch battery life? Nice. Nu Switch battery life? Nice!

The gap between the absolute top and the absolute bottom of this device is narrow enough that while I'm sure it would create visible differences in games, I don't think it would make an appreciable difference in which games come to the system. In that range, all I care about is Nintendo tuning it so the battery life/the heat/the size/the price are all in the right ranges, and of course the tricky balancing act of picking which thing (cpu/gpu/memory) gets a little boost, or has to sacrifice a little for the overall package.

 

[Selarmor]

How does Switch Advance sound?

In terms of avoiding confusion, it's not as good as Super Switch, but not as bad as Switch Pro/Ultra. I'd say it's acceptable on that front.

It would be a means of trying to leverage nostalgia, though, and while I don't have any experience working on products with a rich history like Nintendo consoles, and therefore can't really comment on how effective it would be, my feeling is that anyone who would be swayed by the Gameboy Advance callback is already going to buy it.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

I thought about it in my previous post about running one clock for backwards compat, and another for Drake based games. The power curve for Ampere gets real shaky in the 300Mhz realm, so the question becomes how tight the power budget is, and how much savings can be made in that realm. The answers, ballpark, are "Very tight" and "Not much" respectively.



Orin has a config roughly like this, with 8 TPCs (instead of Drake 6) and running at 1.3 GHz instead of 1.1. It draws 60W, and the gap between it and it's 40/50W configs is basically just GPU/CPU clocks. 1GHz seems like an absolute hail-mary clock speed, with a dock fan the size of a jet engine. I don't think it's beyond the pale, but I am deeply dubious.

But honestly, when I think of the minimum and the maximum config for this thing, I don't see a huge gap, or anything that makes me salivate. 1.7GHz octo core CPUs? Nice. 2.3GHz octo-core CPUs? Nice. [email protected] TFLOPS? Nice. 1GHz@3TFLOPS? Nice. 8GB? Nice. 12GB? Nice.

It's all nice! 720p screen? Nice. 1080p screen? Nice! OG Switch battery life? Nice. Nu Switch battery life? Nice!

The gap between the absolute top and the absolute bottom of this device is narrow enough that while I'm sure it would create visible differences in games, I don't think it would make an appreciable difference in which games come to the system. In that range, all I care about is Nintendo tuning it so the battery life/the heat/the size/the price are all in the right ranges, and of course the tricky balancing act of picking which thing (cpu/gpu/memory) gets a little boost, or has to sacrifice a little for the overall package.

You are absolutely right, it's a super exciting product with what we know at this point regardless of the detail that we all love to speculate.

One thing to consider is my estimating is based on TSMC 6NM as the node at the minimum so there are likely some power and thermal savings to consider which may make 1ghz more reasonable.

Excited to see how things pan out.

 

[Look over there]

OKAY! Everyone play the game with me! (Especially the tech informed, unlike myself)

The only thing we don't know at all yet is the nm of the SOC, which will determine clocks and ultimately the real power level (Goku vs Krillin) of The Drake. So let's do a super clean and simplified list of nm=docked specs for fun.

Here's mine:

8nm Samsung = 1.5TF
5nm Samsung = 2 TF
7 nm TSMC = 2.5 TF
6 nm TSMC = 3 TF
5 nm TSMC = 3.5 TF
4 nm TSMC = 4.20 TF
3 nm TSMC = 6.9 TF (lol maybe 5.5?)


So big range! Did i miss any or list one that should be here?

Hmm, what are my current guesses for docked anyway...
First off, I'm excluding Samsung 8nm; I'm not sold that node can deliver a handheld mode with sufficient battery life given what we know of Drake.
Second, I'm excluding this year's version of TSMC's N3; basically, it sounds like a dud. TSMC won't be offering a direct migration path from N3 to N3E, so it seems to be a dead end. And really, given the way TSMC's talked about it recently, I don't expect base N3 to hang around long.

Alrighty then...
CPU clocks; this one is predominantly influenced by node. Probability descriptions will be pulled out of the rear/thought up on the spot.
Samsung 5LPP: 1.1 to 1.3 Ghz. Not an even distribution; think of a bell curve with 1.2 in the middle.
TSMC N7/N6: 1.2 to 1.4 Ghz. Bell curve with 1.3 in the middle.
TSMC N5/N5P/N4: 1.4 to 1.6 Ghz. For N5, bell curve with 1.5 in the middle. For N5P/N4, lower the odds for 1.4 by some amount and evenly shift them over to 1.5 and 1.6.

Docked GPU clocks; not as influenced by node. I'm actually more concerned with memory bandwidth here.
Base assumption of 102.4 GBps and 8 MB L3 cache: 768 to 1,024 Mhz. Not an even distribution, but not necessarily a bell curve either? Probabilities are tweaked according to the node.
-> Samsung 5LPP: start with a bell curve with 896 in the middle, then shift some from 1,024 to 768. 896 should still have the highest odds.
-> TSMC N7/N6: reverse 5LPP; start with a bell curve, then shift some from 768 to 1,024. 896 still #1.
-> TSMC N5/N5P/N4: see the preceding, but tweak such that 896 and 1,024 end up being even.

Next scenario is 120 GBps (7500 MT/s LPDDR5X) and 8 MB L3 cache: 896 to 1,152 Mhz. Lots of copy and pasting, then replacing numbers. Separately, I progressively get less sold on Samsung 5LPP on delivering a quiet docked mode.
-> Samsung 5LPP: start with a bell curve with 1,024 in the middle, then shift some from 1,152 to 896. 1,024 should still have the highest odds.
-> TSMC N7/N6: reverse 5LPP; start with a bell curve, then shift some from 896 to 1,152. 1,024 still #1.
-> TSMC N5/N5P/N4: see the preceding, but tweak such that 1,024 and 1,152 end up being even.

Then there's the ~136.5 GBps (8533 MT/s LPDDR5X) and 8 MB L3 cache scenario: 1,024 Mhz to 1,280 Mhz. Yadda yadda yadda.
-> Samsung 5LPP: start with a bell curve with 1,152 in the middle, then shift some from 1,280 to 1024. 1,152 should still have the highest odds.
-> TSMC N7/N6: reverse 5LPP; start with a bell curve, then shift some from 1,024 to 1,280. 1,152 still #1.
-> TSMC N5/N5P/N4: see the preceding, but tweak such that 1,152 and 1,280 end up being even.

As for the L3 cache, any theoretical expansion of that doesn't drastically change my expected ranges, but instead serve more to shuffle probabilities around from the lower end towards the upper end.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Hmm, what are my current guesses for docked anyway...
First off, I'm excluding Samsung 8nm; I'm not sold that node can deliver a handheld mode with sufficient battery life given what we know of Drake.
Second, I'm excluding this year's version of TSMC's N3; basically, it sounds like a dud. TSMC won't be offering a direct migration path from N3 to N3E, so it seems to be a dead end. And really, given the way TSMC's talked about it recently, I don't expect base N3 to hang around long.

Alrighty then...
CPU clocks; this one is predominantly influenced by node. Probability descriptions will be pulled out of the rear/thought up on the spot.
Samsung 5LPP: 1.1 to 1.3 Ghz. Not an even distribution; think of a bell curve with 1.2 in the middle.
TSMC N7/N6: 1.2 to 1.4 Ghz. Bell curve with 1.3 in the middle.
TSMC N5/N5P/N4: 1.4 to 1.6 Ghz. For N5, bell curve with 1.5 in the middle. For N5P/N4, lower the odds for 1.4 by some amount and evenly shift them over to 1.5 and 1.6.

Docked GPU clocks; not as influenced by node. I'm actually more concerned with memory bandwidth here.
Base assumption of 102.4 GBps and 8 MB L3 cache: 768 to 1,024 Mhz. Not an even distribution, but not necessarily a bell curve either? Probabilities are tweaked according to the node.
-> Samsung 5LPP: start with a bell curve with 896 in the middle, then shift some from 1,024 to 768. 896 should still have the highest odds.
-> TSMC N7/N6: reverse 5LPP; start with a bell curve, then shift some from 768 to 1,024. 896 still #1.
-> TSMC N5/N5P/N4: see the preceding, but tweak such that 896 and 1,024 end up being even.

Next scenario is 120 GBps (7500 MT/s LPDDR5X) and 8 MB L3 cache: 896 to 1,152 Mhz. Lots of copy and pasting, then replacing numbers. Separately, I progressively get less sold on Samsung 5LPP on delivering a quiet docked mode.
-> Samsung 5LPP: start with a bell curve with 1,024 in the middle, then shift some from 1,152 to 896. 1,024 should still have the highest odds.
-> TSMC N7/N6: reverse 5LPP; start with a bell curve, then shift some from 896 to 1,152. 1,024 still #1.
-> TSMC N5/N5P/N4: see the preceding, but tweak such that 1,024 and 1,152 end up being even.

Then there's the ~136.5 GBps (8533 MT/s LPDDR5X) and 8 MB L3 cache scenario: 1,024 Mhz to 1,280 Mhz. Yadda yadda yadda.
-> Samsung 5LPP: start with a bell curve with 1,152 in the middle, then shift some from 1,280 to 1024. 1,152 should still have the highest odds.
-> TSMC N7/N6: reverse 5LPP; start with a bell curve, then shift some from 1,024 to 1,280. 1,152 still #1.
-> TSMC N5/N5P/N4: see the preceding, but tweak such that 1,152 and 1,280 end up being even.

As for the L3 cache, any theoretical expansion of that doesn't drastically change my expected ranges, but instead serve more to shuffle probabilities around from the lower end towards the upper end.

These are almost exactly my numbers. N7/N5, in the 102.4 GBps scenario seems like the most likely

 

[Deleted member 887]

...and the bad faith clickbait articles based on a reddit post that anonymizes yesterday's discoveries are here. sigh

Like, does anyone know someone at DF? It seems like the sort of thing that if it got traction would get covered in a DF Direct, and I'd love if they could prevent the worst of that stuff from getting out there.

 

[Gay Bowser]

It literally doesn't matter what they name it (obviously excluding stupid ass names like the Wii U) as long as the communication is simple and to the point.

If you knew how many meetings went into the naming and branding of…basically everything you come into contact with, you wouldn’t say it “literally doesn’t matter.” The name is part of the communication to the customer, and is honestly the most important part.

Like, let’s take the new iPhones, just as an example. The iPhone Pro has long come in two sizes, the 6.1-inch “regular” Pro and the 6.7-inch Pro Max. This year, the regular, non-Pro iPhone comes in a larger size for the first time too: there’s the 6.1-inch standard size and a new 6.7-inch model. So, what do they call this model? iPhone 14 Max, lining up with nomenclature used for the Pro phone of the same size? Nope! They ended up calling it the iPhone 14 Plus, harkening back to the iPhone Plus of the iPhone 6-8 era (even though that has a smaller screen than even the standard iPhone now…).

How many meetings do you think Apple had about that decision? I’m willing to bet good money that they debated it for years, ever since this model was greenlit and entered development. I’m sure that there were some people that thought it absolutely should be called iPhone Max to match the iPhone Pro Max and others that thought it should absolutely be called iPhone Plus, because Max is “above” Pro in Apple parlance and this new model slots below the Pro. I’m willing to bet there were metaphorical (and potentially literal) screaming matches about this decision. It’s not an exaggeration to say that there is literally hundreds of millions of dollars on the line with a branding decision like that.

Publishers fret endlessly over the titles of, like, individual books. “Will this title sell? Does it seem like it ‘fits’ the type of book this is? Would adding a subtitle help?” You can bet a company as large as Nintendo has been very carefully considering the name of this new hardware.

Sometimes I wonder if people think consumers can't parse simple information.

Honestly, as anyone who has ever worked retail or customer service can tell you, a lot of consumers can’t.

 

[niconiconick64]

And Streetpass 2

And download play 2.0!

 

[hologram]

If you knew how many meetings went into the naming and branding of…basically everything you come into contact with, you wouldn’t say it “literally doesn’t matter.” The name is part of the communication to the customer, and is honestly the most important part.

Like, let’s take the new iPhones, just as an example. The iPhone Pro has long come in two sizes, the 6.1-inch “regular” Pro and the 6.7-inch Pro Max. This year, the regular, non-Pro iPhone comes in a larger size for the first time too: there’s the 6.1-inch standard size and a new 6.7-inch model. So, what do they call this model? iPhone 14 Max, lining up with nomenclature used for the Pro phone of the same size? Nope! They ended up calling it the iPhone 14 Plus, harkening back to the iPhone Plus of the iPhone 6-8 era (even though that has a smaller screen than even the standard iPhone now…).

How many meetings do you think Apple had about that decision? I’m willing to bet good money that they debated it for years, ever since this model was greenlit and entered development. I’m sure that there were some people that thought it absolutely should be called iPhone Max to match the iPhone Pro Max and others that thought it should absolutely be called iPhone Plus, because Max is “above” Pro in Apple parlance and this new model slots below the Pro. I’m willing to bet there were metaphorical (and potentially literal) screaming matches about this decision.

Publishers fret endlessly over the titles of, like, individual books. “Will this title sell? Does it seem like it ‘fits’ the type of book this is? Would adding a subtitle help?” You can bet a company as large as Nintendo has been very carefully considering the name of this new hardware.


Honestly, as anyone who has ever worked retail or customer service can tell you, a lot of consumers can’t.

Tbh, Apple's naming conventions are probably a big reason why people think names don't matter lol

 

[Mr Swine]

I don’t think we should be that concerned with bandwidth when NVIDIA has lots of different compression built into Ampere. Data Compression that NVIDIA introduced to Ampere is for compressing data to get more out of bandwidth. Then there is the texture compression, color compression and perhaps a few more.

So it’s not really black and white. GCN uarch has none of these and Drake willcloser to PS4 than Xbone in bandwidth

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The Xbox 360 was officially announced (on a star-studded MTV special, which is the most 2005 thing ever) in May and released in November, about half a year later.

Oh man, I'd forgotten about that one.