StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Brofield]

Are the insiders gutted?

Probably more annoyed that they keep getting tagged needlessly here. 2022 is now out of the picture, but because they never discounted the possibility initially people are calling for their heads. Same old story, same old song and dance.

I think if more people can wait for an announcement it'll result in calmer posts, but even that might be too much to expect. Way I see it, I'll hold out for an announcement before the end of fiscal year. The release won't be long after announcement, so that won't be an issue. If nothing official comes from Nintendo wrt hardware as of April 1 2023, I'll dust off my hands, tell myself "it is what it is" in a funny voice, put this thread on ignore and set zero expectations even ahead of DLSS for how powerful for whatever it ends up becoming until the minute it materializes.

 

[ezidro3]

This will be the release year for Switch 2:

Spoiler: Switch 2 Release Year

Is this an omen?

 

[Raccoon]

that significant communication? it's cancelled, you can all go home

(/s)

...did I do this?

 

[mjayer]

Doesn't Nintendo always head-fake everyone right before they release something new? Yes.

#Team2022still

 

[the_marmolade]

Is this an omen?

Try this version:

 

[NateDrake]

@NateDrake

Nate, of course it is not your Duty to tell us infos, but just a couple of days ago you reconfirmed late 2022/early 2023 - now you are confirming H1 23 as it was always your messaged time frame, which isnt the case at all, sorry to say this.

I really think you should clarify this - because this is what I think differed you from all the other leakers, content creators etc. and why I appreciated your posts. It would be such an irony, just days after your podcast complaining about clickbait creators etc (which is 100% true, nothing against that) to go now on H1 23.

I operate with the info as it is relayed to me. Some contacts interchange early for first half.

The Nikkei article seems to have some uncertainty as to where the claim is coming from: Nintendo or outlet opinion citing the challenge to secure resources.

I agree with their belief that 2022 is out of play, especially when pairing the article alongside the Hishiden forecast revision. Supply has been an issue for Nintendo and I'd remove late 2022 from the equation at this point. Given it is August and production has not yet begun, such a release is unlikely for this CY.

 

[Legion of Primes]

I operate with the info as it is relayed to me. Some contacts interchange early for first half.

The Nikkei article seems to have some uncertainty as to where the claim is coming from: Nintendo or outlet opinion citing the challenge to secure resources.

I agree with their belief that 2022 is out of play, especially when pairing the article alongside the Hishiden forecast revision. Supply has been an issue for Nintendo and I'd remove late 2022 from the equation at this point. Given it is August and production has not yet begun, such a release is unlikely for this CY.

Paging @Dragoncaine and @Brofield

 

[Belinda Blumenthal]

I agree with their belief that 2022 is out of play, especially when pairing the article alongside the Hishiden forecast revision. Supply has been an issue for Nintendo and I'd remove late 2022 from the equation at this point. Given it is August and production has not yet begun, such a release is unlikely for this CY.

This is quite a turnaround given that just over a week ago you were standing by 2022 as a possibility.

 

[Awesomegames23]

This is quite a turnaround given that just over a week ago you were standing by 2022 as a possibility.

He’s saying that 2022 is unlikely, not that it’s impossible. At this point, in my opinion, without an announcement in August, I doubt 2022 will be the release year, and that it will launch with Zelda.

 

[Hermii]

He’s saying that 2022 is unlikely, not that it’s impossible.

«out of play” means basically impossible imo.

 

[Hermii]

This is quite a turnaround given that just over a week ago you were standing by 2022 as a possibility.

This article is one of the reasons he turned around.

 

[Belinda Blumenthal]

He’s saying that 2022 is unlikely, not that it’s impossible. At this point, in my opinion, every week that goes without an announcement, makes it increasing unlikely 2022 will be the release year, and that it will launch with Zelda.

Yes, that is how time works, every week a new release date is suggested and then that date is passed brings us closer to an actual release.

 

[Dizzle]

Why do people talk to Nate like they're Phoenix Wright? "Hmmm. Just last week you said that the console would be coming out early 2023. points to paper And yet you just said the first half of 2023. smug look Why did your story change? bangs on desk, then points It's a clear contradiction!"

 

[Raccoon]

11/11/22 was such a cool date

sounds like we're getting something lame

if I were God of Nintendo but 2022 was off the table, I'd reach for April 28, 2023. Right before Golden Week, at the start of the fiscal year, yummy tasty day for a better Switch

 

[Awesomegames23]

Yes, that is how time works, every week a new release date is suggested and then that date is passed brings us closer to an actual release.

I was about to edit my post and add by the end of August.

 

[Hermii]

Why do people talk to Nate like they're Phoenix Wright? "Hmmm. Just last week you said that the console would be coming out early 2023. points to paper And yet you just said the first half of 2023. smug look Why did your story change? bangs on desk, then points It's a clear contradiction!"

Second stage of grief. Unfortunately directed at Nate, cause there is nothing else to direct it at.

 

[Belinda Blumenthal]

Why do people talk to Nate like they're Phoenix Wright? "Hmmm. Just last week you said that the console would be coming out early 2023. points to paper And yet you just said the first half of 2023. smug look Why did your story change? bangs on desk, then points It's a clear contradiction!"

You could @ me directly if you'd like to talk. I made that post because it seems like there are no consequences on this site for "insiders" stringing the community along with vague, misleading information that is often proved false. It's like the Direct thing last month never happened. I've never been on another forum where insiders behaved like that and were validated by the community for doing so.

I guess I'll post in the site suggestions thread instead.

 

[NateDrake]

You could @ me directly if you'd like to talk. I made that post because it seems like there are no consequences on this site for "insiders" stringing the community along with vague, misleading information that is often proved false. It's like the Direct thing last month never happened. I've never been on another forum where insiders behaved like that and were validated by the community for doing so.

I guess I'll post in the site suggestions thread instead.

No one said a Direct was happening in July.

Also, Nikkei reported the Pro hardware in 2021. Maybe Nikkei, Bloomberg and myself are the Triforce of fuckin' with you.

 

[Dragoncaine]

Paging @Dragoncaine and @Brofield

I've been checking this thread once every 3 days at most the past few weeks, so always appreciate you keeping me in the loop

 

[Awesomegames23]

the Triforce of fuckin' with you.

This belongs in the BOTW2 subtitle ideas thread.

 

[My Tulpa]

Are the insiders gutted?

By “insiders” you mean that Nikkei reporter?

 

[NateDrake]

Why do people talk to Nate like they're Phoenix Wright? "Hmmm. Just last week you said that the console would be coming out early 2023. points to paper And yet you just said the first half of 2023. smug look Why did your story change? bangs on desk, then points It's a clear contradiction!"

What's maddening is the idea people think I'm sitting here each day asking contacts for an update. Breaking News: I only check in if I'm hearing something new from other contacts. Otherwise, I maintain the info I had prior. I'm not poking my contacts every week for an update.

2022 falls off the cliff of possibility? Cool. It lets me check in and see if a more up to date window has been made available.

A report or change can happen without my knowledge. I'm not privy to every minor alteration made across numerous cogs in the machine that impact timing.

 

[Belinda Blumenthal]

No one said a Direct was happening in July.

Apologies, given we just crossed into August I got the dates confused. What I meant was the June Direct which you did say was happening towards the end of June here:

Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST2| Fami's Summer Gameguess

No. It would be announced Tuesday or Wednesday This is what they do when they're announcing it one day in advance. But if they're announcing it two weeks in advance it really doesn't matter which day they choose.

famiboards.com

and then stated you didn’t think it was a Partner here:

Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST2| Fami's Summer Gameguess

Reading 4chan for 20 hours a day just to read all the leaks.

famiboards.com

which it was. Only a day or two after that post Andy Robinson suggested it would be a Partner Direct which you then corroborated, much like today where Nikkei ruled out a 2022 release and you immediately followed.

There is nothing wrong with updating an outlook based on more information as it appears, but to imply you have sources beyond what is available to other users yet only echo reports made by other people comes across poorly.

 

[Raccoon]

 

[Deleted member 386]

I wish this thread was more future Nintendo hardware and less about what one insider did say or didn’t say or defending or prosecuting them.

Can we stop hanging on one persons every word and just collectively chill? Especially when that person doesn’t have any new info or is not going to share it.

 

[NateDrake]

Apologies, given we just crossed into August I got the dates confused. What I meant was the June Direct which you did say was happening towards the end of June here:

Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST2| Fami's Summer Gameguess

No. It would be announced Tuesday or Wednesday This is what they do when they're announcing it one day in advance. But if they're announcing it two weeks in advance it really doesn't matter which day they choose.

famiboards.com

and then stated you didn’t think it was a Partner here:

Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST2| Fami's Summer Gameguess

Reading 4chan for 20 hours a day just to read all the leaks.

famiboards.com

which it was. Only a day or two after that post Andy Robinson suggested it would be a Partner Direct which you then corroborated, much like today where Nikkei ruled out a 2022 release and you immediately followed.

There is nothing wrong with updating an outlook based on more information as it appears, but to imply you have sources beyond what is available to other users yet only echo reports made by other people comes across poorly.

I'm saying I agree with their assessment of 2022 no longer being in the cards due to shortages & the lack of production. That's not sourced information. It's opinion based on suppliers shifting forecasts & Nintendo saying they are struggling to get components. Not every damn word uttered is based on a source.

A notice the word used there for the Direct: "Think" not "Know". At that point in June, the format of the Direct was not known to me. I knew the timing/date of the show. Not the format.

 

[My Tulpa]

I operate with the info as it is relayed to me. Some contacts interchange early for first half.

The Nikkei article seems to have some uncertainty as to where the claim is coming from: Nintendo or outlet opinion citing the challenge to secure resources.

I agree with their belief that 2022 is out of play, especially when pairing the article alongside the Hishiden forecast revision. Supply has been an issue for Nintendo and I'd remove late 2022 from the equation at this point. Given it is August and production has not yet begun, such a release is unlikely for this CY.

Thank you for your service.

As far as this article and Furukawa goes, I’ll believe supply is in actual issue when they lower their 21 million forecast.

Until then, I see this as just Furukawa approaching a publication…that Nintendo has a history of admonishing when they print Nintendo speculated hardware plans that Nintendo worries will suppress current consumer interest so they have to keep denying said reporting…in an attempt to quell constant speculation new hardware is coming next week.

Nintendo going out of their way to deny and suppress hardware speculation until closer to the end of the financial quarter is very on brand.

 

[Deleted member 341]

You could @ me directly if you'd like to talk. I made that post because it seems like there are no consequences on this site for "insiders" stringing the community along with vague, misleading information that is often proved false. It's like the Direct thing last month never happened. I've never been on another forum where insiders behaved like that and were validated by the community for doing so.

I guess I'll post in the site suggestions thread instead.

you really love to play the blame game spinning your own narration that fits your own agenda and then you wonder why some folks are defending a member of this community, namely NateDrake.

What is your endgame here? do you wanna see us jumping on Nate or what? You could...you know just ignore him if it bothers you so much but folks like you are the first ones who constantly @ insiders for precious leaks and details to get your fix.

 

[Raccoon]

as skittzo pointed out, they did this exact shit to Nikkei weeks before the 3DS XL announcement

I don't think 2022 is (or even ever has been) a conservative line of thinking, but it's not really that much sillier today than it was yesterday.

 

[Belinda Blumenthal]

folks like you are the first ones who constantly @ insiders for precious leaks and details to get your fix.

I have demonstrably not done that on this forum or any others, feel free to check my post history.

My “endgame” is that I think tolerating low quality “insider” information makes the site look bad. Other gaming forums are much stricter with insiders and it helps preserve their reputation.

 

[Deleted member 341]

I have demonstrably not done that on this forum or any others, feel free to check my post history.

My “endgame” is that I think tolerating low quality “insider” information makes the site look bad. Other gaming forums are much stricter with insiders and it helps preserve their reputation.

lol is their a quality scale for insiders now or what? this shit is not worth it. gonna ignore you. bye.

 

[NateDrake]

as skittzo pointed out, they did this exact shit to Nikkei weeks before the 3DS XL announcement

I don't think 2022 is (or even ever has been) a conservative line of thinking, but it's not really that much sillier today than it was yesterday.

I mean, Nintendo is never going to say, "Yes, we have another bit of hardware this year..." in an interview. They'll always deny until it is time to announce.

The lack of supply, a major supplier altering their forecast, and there being no movement on production lines are enough to suggest 2022 has fallen out of favor.

 

[Raccoon]

I mean, Nintendo is never going to say, "Yes, we have another bit of hardware this year..." in an interview. They'll always deny until it is time to announce.

The lack of supply, a major supplier altering their forecast, and there being no movement on production lines are enough to suggest 2022 has fallen out of favor.

oh for sure. all of those things were true and known yesterday though

 

[Chauzu]

I have demonstrably not done that on this forum or any others, feel free to check my post history.

My “endgame” is that I think tolerating low quality “insider” information makes the site look bad. Other gaming forums are much stricter with insiders and it helps preserve their reputation.

Is checking post history needed when we can just check the current page? I’m no regular here but if you have been even casually following this thread you’d know that nothing in the Nikkei report contradicts anything reported on here.

 

[Hermii]

Everyone should take every insider or even reputable publications with a pinch of salt. If something don’t turn out exactly as they told us, that’s just how it is. Nobody’s right all the time.

 

[Belinda Blumenthal]

Is checking post history needed when we can just check the current page? I’m no regular here but if you have been even casually following this thread you’d know that nothing in the Nikkei report contradicts anything reported on here.

If that were the case you wouldn’t have users saying they doubt the Nikkei article, which you can see by looking at this thread or the original thread which was later locked.

lol is their a quality scale for insiders now or what?

Normally yes, that’s how you decide which “insiders” are worth listening to. There are people that make careers out of it.

 

[karmitt]

I'm saying I agree with their assessment of 2022 no longer being in the cards due to shortages & the lack of production. That's not sourced information. It's opinion based on suppliers shifting forecasts & Nintendo saying they are struggling to get components.

Thanks. It’s important to note this.

If there are still 2022 optimistic in the thread on something, announcement or otherwise, please people don’t be assholes. Don’t be petty or self-righteous. Don’t try to shove noses in the mud.

I’m near the point of ignoring this thread and any hardware tangential topics because some posters and drive-bys can’t handle the idea that some of us enjoy following the mess that is future hardware speculation, and that insider chatter is a major part of it. Take your obsessive shaming elsewhere. I literally do not give a shit if you end up being ‘right’ - spit your gloating bile elsewhere.

The best version of this thread is the version that gets a bit disappointed, but quickly moves on to speculating the how, why, and what could be next.

 

[Legion of Primes]

I've been checking this thread once every 3 days at most the past few weeks, so always appreciate you keeping me in the loop

Know you are always busy with work so I try to keep you in the loop at times

 

[Blue Monty]

11/11/22 was such a cool date

sounds like we're getting something lame

if I were God of Nintendo but 2022 was off the table, I'd reach for April 28, 2023. Right before Golden Week, at the start of the fiscal year, yummy tasty day for a better Switch

Releasing hardware one-two weeks before holidays is an awful idea, you want to give at least one month ish of space

 

[Thugstas]

I mean, Nintendo is never going to say, "Yes, we have another bit of hardware this year..." in an interview. They'll always deny until it is time to announce.

The lack of supply, a major supplier altering their forecast, and there being no movement on production lines are enough to suggest 2022 has fallen out of favor.

Plus Taïwan / China / USA tension.

 

[Raccoon]

Releasing hardware one-two weeks before holidays is an awful idea, you want to give at least one month ish of space

oh yeah

maybe just Zelda then? that'd be a good Zelda date

 

[Serif]

11/11/22 was such a cool date

sounds like we're getting something lame

It is one week before the anniversary of Metroid Prime.

 

[karmitt]

Releasing hardware one-two weeks before holidays is an awful idea, you want to give at least one month ish of space

Are you referring to the Golden Week proposal or the 11 November one? Because first couple weeks of November has been the launch date of countless major hardware releases - PS4, PS4 Pro, PS5, Xbox One, Series X|S, the list goes on.

 

[manfromthedam]

11/11/22 was such a cool date

sounds like we're getting something lame

if I were God of Nintendo but 2022 was off the table, I'd reach for April 28, 2023. Right before Golden Week, at the start of the fiscal year, yummy tasty day for a better Switch

Wasn't that Starfield's original date? Exactly 11 years after Skyrim (my Gawd...). Good that they dropped that sexy date though, Starfield looked rough.

 

[Blue Monty]

Are you referring to the Golden Week proposal or the 11 November one? Because first couple weeks of November has been the launch date of countless major hardware releases - PS4, PS4 Pro, PS5, Xbox One, Series X|S, the list goes on.

Golden Week, first weeks of November is still decent enough to give room for Black Friday

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I have demonstrably not done that on this forum or any others, feel free to check my post history.

My “endgame” is that I think tolerating low quality “insider” information makes the site look bad. Other gaming forums are much stricter with insiders and it helps preserve their reputation.

I was with you until you said “other gaming forums are much stricter with insiders and it helps preserve their reputation.”

If I were to list other gaming forums and related elements, you have: Resetera, NeoGAF, GameFAQs, XBoxEra, the Pc forum that I forgot the name for which was an offshoot of Resetera, and probably a few more I’m missing.


Across all of these they have a poor reputation or a mixed bag at best. I’m not quite sure which forum you’re referring to.

 

[karmitt]

Wasn't that Starfield's original date? Exactly 11 years after Skyrim (my Gawd...). Good that they dropped that sexy date though, Starfield looked rough.

I was actually plenty impressed with it :/

I'm not assuming anything they showed is going to change significantly over the next year - they chose to use that footage in their showcase so they likely decided it was most representative of the final product. The game is massive, who knows what the next 6-12 months(?) will be focused on.

 

[Lant_War]

Wasn't that Starfield's original date? Exactly 11 years after Skyrim (my Gawd...). Good that they dropped that sexy date though, Starfield looked rough.

10 years. 11-11-11 to 11-11-22

 

[Raccoon]

10 years. 11-11-11 to 11-11-22

lant please

 

[Serif]

Across all of these they have a poor reputation or a mixed bag at best. I’m not quite sure which forum you’re referring to.

ResetEra has banned insiders like Zippo. They also undergo some form of verification through DMs. I guess that is the 'strictness' they are referring to.

As far as I know this forum has only two insiders, Nate and Emily. Neither of which ResetEra has banned, to my knowledge.

Imo, Nate's comments about timeframe were only one piece of the puzzle for me. We still have Bloomberg's 11 devkits report from last year:

Developers declined to speculate on Nintendo’s plans for another console but said they expect to release their 4K Switch games during or after the second half of next year.

Mochizuki drew an incorrect conclusion about the OLED but I don't think that applies to his 11 different sources. It is of course, entirely possible that while these games may be slated for a late 2022 release, they may not launch alongside the console (i.e. they ship on base Switch / other platforms first).

And then there is the progress of NVN2 in the Nvidia data leak, which remains the most reliable piece of evidence of new hardware. I haven't read through the code myself but from what I glean of secondhand analysis, it's not in the concept or early stages like the Nintendo Indy.