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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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I would be ready for a 2024 release if it was the successor, I have previously stated on here that I believed the Switch Pro would release in 2023 and the Switch 2 would release in 2025. I only guessed this because it seems every two years since the launch of the switch, we have been getting a new model of the switch.
If Nintendo decided to just wait for the successor and skip the heavily rumored Pro model, I wouldn't mind waiting until 2024.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Would be disappointed if Xeno 2 doesn't get a patch, it needs it more than Xeno 3 does. Without a patch it'd be capped at sub 720p in handheld mode which would stink.
If Nintendo reprinted these games, continued to sell them at full price but marketed them with Drake patches, they could breath a second life into them.
Its also why I hope Drake comes out before TotK, I want some time to play with a BotW 4K patch before (sky)diving head first into that game.
If Nintendo reprinted these games, continued to sell them at full price but marketed them with Drake patches, they could breath a second life into them.
Its also why I hope Drake comes out before TotK, I want some time to play with a BotW 4K patch before (sky)diving head first into that game.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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The ‘heavily rumored’ Pro model is a successor in everything but name. It’s vastly more powerful than the current Switch by every metric, and represents a generational leap in hardware.
The games with DLC are certainly the ones most likely to receive a patch, but I wouldn't assume those are the only ones. Nintendo has been known to just go back and patch games to add stuff sometimes (such as the labo updates, adding a new language to Xenoblade 2, or when they put a whole new control scheme in Pikmin 3 on Wii U), and a new hardware launch would certainly be a worthy motivating factor for doing that.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I'm psychologically ready
But yes, if that happens, I think this thread goes beserk, though not just because of the regulars, but the wave of drive by posters who come to troll, and the regulars posting 500 pages of analysis.Like I've said, this is a fun game for me, reading the tea leaves, independent of any Nintendo fandom. A release in 2024 would be a "loss" but I've already "lost" the game a couple times - before the release of the OLED model I was betting on an overclocked Mariko + no DLSS as the "pro" model, and 4k coming later. This community has taught me a lot about the underlying technology and that's a win regardless of how it shakes out.
Even the "but name" part is kind of largely assumption at this point.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
Maybe a max resolution patch, but XC2 is already halfway into its 10 years anniversary, they are probably better saving bigger efforts for a XC2DE in 2027+.
Gobias-Ind
Rattata
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Well, you know, you didn't answer my question
Yes, we will all have a stroke and die if Nintendo doesn't release new hardware next year. We will be so triggered our brains will explode. The meltdown will be epic
Do you have any more questions?
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
There isn't a strong performance comparison here between XeSS and DLSS, which isn't surprising since it's hard to find an apples-to-apples comparison, but XeSS does very well on the quality benchmarks.
Of note: on lower resolutions how often Alex says things like "better than native" for both upscaling techniques. FSR at launch was "good and runs everywhere, but behind DLSS in almost all cases." XeSS is a much stronger opening, though I suspect it looks much worse on non-Intel cards, and in that case it's an open question how much Nvidia may consider it a competitor. My hope is that Nvidia responds aggressively and that we all benefit from the three of these solutions duking it out.
Looking at the latest versions of DLSS/FSR the current fight seems to be "how do we deal with limited/no motion vector data"
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It might even be a successor in name. We don’t really know how they’re going to market it, only that it seems like it will be somewhat higher priced and sold alongside some existing Switch hardware.
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I hadn't thought of this. I like this theory
Kise Ryota
Moblin
I'm psychologically ready
Yeah, that's what I have thought
But it's good you're ready for whatever happens. I'm psychologically, mentally, emotionally, and financially ready too. My ready is body.
D
Deleted member 1171
Guest
If dev kits have been in the hands of developers (including Zynga) and Capcom couldn't wait 6-8 months to release these games in working condition (vs Cloud), then that's a ridiculous move by Capcom.
If what I wrote was interpreted as pessimistic, then I'll suggest that basing expectations on message boards, and ignoring what is actually happening in real-time, is foolishly idealistic.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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Disclaimer: I am not a hardware guy, so the answer to this might simply be "no, you absolute fool" and that's totally fine
Wouldn't the large, new-generation-sized gap simply be the result of Drake being released the usual equivalent of a full console generation after the Switch? PS4 Pro and XB1X were modest upgrades because they released only 3 years after their original counterparts, compared to approximately 6 for the Drake. We should expect a comparatively larger power increase.
In terms of Pro vs succ; my assumption is that new console generations are usually more distinct because they change architecture, possibly OS, possibly software input format, but not because they inherently need to do any of that. Of course, even if all of the above were kept the same and we were purely talking about computational power increase, there are good reasons for why developers might not want to continue to support old hardware. Unlike with PCs, you can't just have minimum/recommended specs and trust users to understand that if they're barely making the minimum specs they may struggle to reach playable framerates even at low settings.
Anyway, kinda lost my train of thought there and I'm not actually sure whether I was leading to any specific point, so I'll stop now lol
Wouldn't the large, new-generation-sized gap simply be the result of Drake being released the usual equivalent of a full console generation after the Switch? PS4 Pro and XB1X were modest upgrades because they released only 3 years after their original counterparts, compared to approximately 6 for the Drake. We should expect a comparatively larger power increase.
In terms of Pro vs succ; my assumption is that new console generations are usually more distinct because they change architecture, possibly OS, possibly software input format, but not because they inherently need to do any of that. Of course, even if all of the above were kept the same and we were purely talking about computational power increase, there are good reasons for why developers might not want to continue to support old hardware. Unlike with PCs, you can't just have minimum/recommended specs and trust users to understand that if they're barely making the minimum specs they may struggle to reach playable framerates even at low settings.
Anyway, kinda lost my train of thought there and I'm not actually sure whether I was leading to any specific point, so I'll stop now lol
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You know, this had me thinking. Back in an interview with 4Gamer Miyamoto had explained that Pikmin largely benefits from a higher resolution and even posited that Pikmin would be a better showcase for 4K than Zelda (translation provided by KameDaniRyuu):
I don't think the prospect of Pikmin 4 missing 4k capability is all that likely, in all honesty.
Hosermess
Koopa
Oh it won't miss 4k...what you (and all the hyped people in general) should pleading for is for it not to miss 2023. Just saying, an announcement and a super impressive yet super limited trailer with no game action is exciting but doesn't give me much confidence about how close to completion it is.
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
This is the main reason why I'm thinking it could be a surprise launch game
Time is certainly an enabling factor, but it alone doesn't guarantee the sort of difference we're expecting. Nintendo most likely had the option of commissioning a chip that's more in line with a PS4 Pro/Xbox One X sort of upgrade, where it's mostly just faster or beefier, but they chose to go for the full architectural upgrade. The change in architecture is not just a choice that's made, but it's a significant source of the performance improvements in the first place.
To give some concrete examples, you have systems like the Game Boy Color and the Wii. The former is a revision Nintendo used to keep the Game Boy alive while they reworked Project Atlantis into what we know as the GBA, while the latter is a successor that staked its identity mostly on being a philosophical departure from its predecessor, rather than a technical one. Both have plenty of time between them and the system they're based on, but they both play things very close to the original version, and make very minimal architectural changes, so they're not actually much more powerful.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Roughly, I think this is where a lot of us are at. 18 months ago, when rumors of a "Pro" went from fan speculation to "Bloomberg article" a lot of us were unsure where to position it in terms of power.
Now that we're talking about 6 years after the Switch's release, it seems perfectly reasonable to expect this device to roughly track Nintendo's vague strategy of getting within spitting distance of the last gen's power, rather than tracking with Sony/Microsoft's last gen strategy of using a die shrink to extend the generation. The NVN2 hack confirms that it's a new arch.
I've been relentless in keeping my expectations in check, just to act as a balance to the hype. I still expect the bare minimum out of Next Switch, but I've become increasingly convinced that the "bare minimum" is bigger than I thought.
I thought it was possible but not likely that Drake was Switch 2, and that the pro would be a separate device. That no longer makes sense from a timing perspective.
I thought it was likely that Drake was 8nm because Occam's razor, but a day spent with Nvidia's Orin documentation doesn't seem to leave room for even the most pathetic clocks with the NVN2 specs. TSMC 7nm vastly increases what's possible at Switch power draws, which leaves room for a significant CPU upgrade.
I thought 8GB was a generous RAM allocation, but looking at components that Nintendo can actually purchase and, again, the NVN2 leak, and it seems like 12GB is more sensible.
Similarly, the economics on OLED panels continue to trend towards 1080p displays, and this level of power seems to make 1080p handheld mode to no longer be a non-starter, especially since 20 TOPS in handheld mode seems completely plausible. I still expect a 720p screen, but if you told me it was 1080p I would neither be surprised nor upset. Similarly if it matched the battery life of the revised Switch rather than the OG or worse. I expect at least 6 cores for the CPU but 8 seems likely. A78s but A78Cs seem likely.
Taking all these conservative-but-informed assumptions gives you a very nice device at the bottom end and a very, very nice device at a not-unreasonable top end.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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I’m not excluding it per se, but I’d think that those games getting updated who aren’t of the first test batch that they deem the most crucial to update, would be more of a response to the first wave of titles that gets an update.
If Xenoblade, Zelda, Mario Kart, Mario Strikers, etc receive a positive response then I’d imagine they’ll go and update the other ones with at least framerate patches and resolution patches.
But I think these games with tons of waves are the ones that will be used for the DLSS patch with perhaps RT added to some degree. But not a guarantee of all that. At least these wave games will likely be the target showcase titles. Res + FR patch too.
Other titles? Not DLSS or RT, but just a res and FR patch maybe.
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Thanks for the explanation. I do still feel that a PS4 Pro or XB1X style upgrade could (and probably) would have come much earlier, though. They certainly didn't need to go for an architectural change, it's true, but a ~6 year gap would still allow a fairly dramatic power jump (assuming 'increased power' was their primary reason for the revision, which - as you point out in the GBC example, but also with Mariko - is by no means a guarantee with Nintendo)
I kinda suspect they did originally want to run Mariko at higher clocks, but backed out for some reason and fell back on just a battery life upgrade. The red box Switch model number doesn't follow their usual convention for significant, but unnamed, revisions.
TonyBaduy
Moblin
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Wasn't there a rumor about them not getting the performance they wanted out of higher clocked Mariko?
There was definitely a rumor floating around about them not being satisfied with the results, but it's a difficult sort of thing to verify.
mjayer
Moblin
Trailer was "super limited" because it's a launch title, and showpiece for Drake. They were limited to only showing old switch version, so they kept it very simple.
The real trailer for it will be at the reveal.
Opens with a photorealistic scene inside a sandbox with little pikmin carrying a little plastic shovel, camera pulls out to reveal this scene on the Drake-Switch, camera keeps pulling to reveal happy model playing while sitting outside on the edge of a similar looking sandbox. Repeat this same setup 3 times (different pikmin scenes, transposed to people in similar environments playing it on the handheld drake-switch) before switching to some breathtaking 4k footage of TotK showing off something new and unexpected, then camera pulls out to show its on the living room TV, keeps pulling and shows new dock and Drake-Switch. Name of console and release date comes on screen.
(^ speculation)
they could have always used newer architecture and nodes for a small jump via a configuration like 4 cpu cores, and 4 SM. wouldn't be worth the development, probably, but it's doable
I agree, it's still in the first half of the year and the start of May is still within the first third of the year. May is also pretty early in the fiscal year too.
"Early next year" when applied to business plans is always pretty flexible anyway. Especially when not tied to any official announcement. Nintendo loves to bide their time.
All things considered I don't think May speculation is incongruent with prior rumors.
Thinking back to the Switch timeline:
Now taking into account the New Nintendo 3DS timeline:
- The first true reveal (and proper name) didn't come until October 2016 when it got its own dedicated trailer.
- The big blowout came in January 2017 when they gave a live hour-long presentation in Japan.
- It was then released 2 months later in March 2017.
Now taking into account the New Nintendo 3DS timeline:
- The original 3DS was revealed in June 2010. It released in Feb/Mar 2011 (depending on region).
- The New 3DS was revealed in a Nintendo Direct three and a half years later in late August 2014.
- It got a dedicated preview video in January 2015 (before US/EU release, after JP release).
- It was released in October 2014 in Japan, February 2015 in US/EU.
The February Direct announce to May release timeline seems possible, 3 months. That's sort of in the middle of what they did for Switch and the New 3DS. And the SUCC has been said to be something like a Game Boy Color or New Nintendo 3DS, both a revision and a successor, new but still part of a console family. So an announce/release timeline somewhere in the middle might make sense based on
But its entirely possible that an announcement won't be tied to any regularly scheduled Direct whatsoever, I feel no reason to expect anything from the Feb Direct.
tl;dr i know nothing and anything is possible
Hosermess
Koopa
Thank you for adding this lol
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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@NateDrake I’m sorry to bother you with something like this, but I haven’t seen this but want a clarification.
When you said H1 as a window, were your sources referring to CY (January to June)? Or FY (April to September)?
When you said H1 as a window, were your sources referring to CY (January to June)? Or FY (April to September)?
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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But I mean, think about it, does it really sound that far-fetched for them to do a September release?
With say… a new 3D Mario game?
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You folks keep speculating, and I'll just keep throwing $10 a month into my Amazon account to prepare for whatever happens whenever it happens, if I need it to run the latest cool and hot games.
$70 down, $?? to go!
$70 down, $?? to go!
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It's Capcom betting on the power of the 120 million userbase. Feels like a waste of time to me, but a cloud release isn't exactly a development hog.
With no context, no month seems unlikely. Since we've repeatedly heard early/first-half, September seems not a match. If what we've heard is not at all accurate, then maybe 2029.
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If you could pick only one previously released Nintendo Switch game to receive a 4K/HDR patch for the new console, which would you choose and why?
It's tough for me, but I'd probably go with BOTW or Xenoblade Chronicles 3.
It's tough for me, but I'd probably go with BOTW or Xenoblade Chronicles 3.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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I'd totally replayed Origami King again if they spiffed it up
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TOK was already gorgeous though. Unless by "spiff it up" you mean "change the combat system" lol
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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to me it being gorgeous makes a patch more appealing, not less
Kingpin722
Piranha Plant
Given that this hardware is expected to be iterative, wouldn’t it make sense to give OG Switch owners some way to experience those games on their console rather than doing a hard cut off as soon as it releases? Just like the PS5 and Series X, introducing fully exclusive software will likely be a gradual process.
Also, there’s literally nothing concrete that has happened in “real time” that one could ignore in favor of message board rumors. Even the supposed developers you stated that have had devkits is a rumor. That Bloomberg report was from over a year ago and was completely denied by Zynga.
So for you to throw out a perceived worst case scenario, with nothing to reference that would give credence to it, that’s the definition of pessimism.
I personally haven’t chosen a hard stance for anything that’s been stated, only temporarily given harmless commentary to harmless rumors. I understand that this hardware could still be anything at this point.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
If the Drake is indeed launching next year as a Pro model and we are not getting succesor in 2024 this could really mean a "Nintendo Switch brand" is here till 2026/7, which would mean that after it's all done the Nintendo Switch will be the best selling video game system in the world.
maniacmaison
Art bitch
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I would go for Xenoblade Chronicles 2, it needs it much more than 3 with its great rendering solution. I need to see Uraya in 4K.
I think chances that the Switch will still be getting games in 2027 are pretty high regardless of when Drake releases. Might not be many from Nintendo, but the games will continue to flow.
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